"... rating his prospects of winning November’s presidential election as much higher than headline opinion polling figures suggest.... Although some polls have shown the vice-president with leads of between four and six points in Pennsylvania... others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits. Narrower gaps separate the two in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris’s lead is just 1 or 2%, according to several different recent polls. Underpinning Democrats’ fears is the knowledge that Trump greatly out-performed predictions in all three states in 2016, when he narrowly won them en route to his election triumph over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when he was pipped by Joe Biden by far smaller margins than forecast. The worries are compounded by the
latest New York Times/Siena poll, which records Trump performing more robustly in three Sun belt battleground states – Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina – than he has in weeks...."
From
"Democrats worried about polls undercounting Donald Trump’s support/Prospects of ex-president’s victory could be higher as some Harris supporters unnerved by small lead in swing states" (The Guardian).
I like the phrase "pipped by Joe Biden." Just one of the benefits of getting news about America from somewhere other than America. Chiefly, I like getting the distance.
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३७ टिप्पण्या:
I have heard "pipped" used in poker where some loses because his kicker card is out-pipped by his opponent.
Either the National polls are trash, or the State polls are. Because the results are entirely incompatible with each other
IIRC, the State polls tend to be better (more accurate), which is good news for Trump
For one simple example: Trump isn't winning Arizona by 5 pts, while losing the "national vote" by 5%. Not going to happen
All I know is that the one time I was contacted for a poll, I asked how much knowing my preference was worth to them. They hung up.
Dems are having 2016 flashbacks. Oh what a night...
Anyway, my news source of choice is the Daily Mail.
I have pollsters contacting (trying, at least) daily. I would never answer that question honestly if I were ever to answer it. No upside and as we've seen, lots of downside. Besides, the pollsters would just downweight republican opinions anyway to achieve their desired result.
There is a reason that campaigns do internal polling: they don't believe public polls either.
330 million people, 400 million polls
Kamala Harris has largest post-debate lead yet over Donald Trump in new Wisconsin Watch poll
The MassINC Polling Group survey found Harris with 53% support to Trump’s 46% among likely voters, nearly outside the poll’s margin of error.
National polls are skewed by states like California and New York which go Democrat by big margins. So the national numbers are basically garbage. A dirty little secret of polling is that you can make the numbers be anything you want by where you poll. This can also be done at the state level by over sampling Philadelphia, for example, in Pennsylvania polls.
Do you think this isn’t done?
But the problem is that this chicanery all goes out the window in an actual election. What the Democrats are really worried about is their internal polls, which must be showing Trump strong enough to exceed the margin of fraud.
And where exactly did MassINC concentrate their polling. Milwaukee? Madison maybe? We’ll never know.
And by the way, if you want to have some fun, dig a little into Wisconsin Watch. The first clue, it is a nonprofit founded by Craig Newmarket, founder of Craigslist. You can follow from there.
Correction to the above: Craig Newmark. I hate autocorrect.
Foreign press making the erroneous assumption things are proper with our elections…
If your "largest post-debate lead" is "nearly outside the poll's margin of error" - "nearly"! -, you're not doing very well.
The main reason that the Democrats are worried about undercounting is that they don’t know the margin that they need to make up with ballot stuffing.
Funny, the Democrats are being hoaxed by their own push polls.
@Jersey Fled: They just polled in the Triangle (probably Asheville, too). They didn't head out to Whiteville or Spruce Pine.
I don’t believe the Democrats are really worried about undercounting. They need the polls to show a lead to make any cheating plausible. They may be worried about those sun belt states that really have been “election fortified”.
The Guardian is reliably leftist, so there is a natural affinity for a NY Times reader.
Wi has less than 6 mm people, and the Massinc poll has a moe higher than 7%? Did they pol 300 people?
The ballot box is secret. So votes can be honest. But if I put a Trump sticker on my car, I'll get keyed.
as Jersey Fled points out..
There have been Well Over 100 MILLION ballots mailed out in California alone,
which Each ballot pre-filled in with Joe Biden's name..
Of course, this HAS caused some problems, but the new Harris ballots are being printed as we speak
Strange how pollsters just can’t figure out how to accurately measure Trump support. They did this to themselves just like Big Media did. Most normal Americans won’t talk to them, the same way they shun Big Media. The loss of trust and respect is not easy to earn back, if it’s even possible. Did Harris really lose 11% among Hispanic voters in AZ in one polling cycle? We don’t know. The possibilities are endless, including undercounting the support earlier, to inaccurate weighting or using outdated models from earlier years to predict voter participation. I like it. An uncertain Democrat machine is less likely to be able to create enough votes on demand to cheat their way to the win this time.
So maybe Inga won't have to shoot him.
wouldn't is be something? if all wards and districts had to announce their numbers at the same time?
instead of Madison and Milwaukee ALWAYS waiting until every other area is in
If Harris is doing well, then the question is --- with what group of voters is she doing well with? Suburban white women? Yes. Middle-agers with college degrees? Yes. Blacks, especially black males? Her numbers are the worst for any Democratic candidate in my lifetime. The same for Latinos, both male and female. Non-degreed white voters? Trump's ahead by a huge margin.
There are peeps around the edges that point to Harris not doing well at all. Man-on-the-street interviews with blacks over and over again see her disparaged by the interviewee. On Fox News, you can say "Oh, that's cherry picking", but Don Lemon was stunned to find the same thing. Apparent bussing of the same participants to multiple rallies to build crowd size. Lying about Beyonce appearing on the last night of the convention to gin up the ratings. Latent anger at the Democratic Party leadership for how they fucked over their voters by kicking Biden to the curb and anointing Harris with no votes.
If Harris is doing so well, then find me a sub-group where she is outperforming Democratic candidate standards. There aren't any. Those groups sum up to victory or defeat, and I think we're looking at defeat here.
Here in Nevada Democrat Senate candidate Jackie Rosen is doing quite well in the polls. Harris not so much. There's a lot of hard feeling about the open borders, particularly among those who are here legally, or those who were here before it was the USA.
using race-ing-ist slang Trump wins by a dick-head size of small dick!
Michael K, I haven’t EVER felt the urge to shoot anyone I despise, lucky you.
since everyone knows about EC why are not polls gauge EV state by state?
data crunching capabilities are so much more advanced than previously too.
Sure, it's sorta interesting to jabber about someone being "pipped." Like Althouse, I would take note of that phrase if I was reading this Guardian piece.
But, very soon after reading the "pipping" phrase I move on to thinking about "piping," i.e. the phrase "laying pipe." Seems like laying pipe is better than pipping,
Different strokes fer dif folks.
Oh what a glorious night indeed. My son and I partied down on the 16th floor of Trump Tower and got probably the best food (and large portions) I've ever had at any event, of any kind ever.
They had set up a big TV and rows of chairs out in the foyer. A couple hundred people in the ballroom partying, another hundred out watching the numbers. And lots of people, like me, scurrying between the two.
By the time the party ended, it looked pretty certain that Donald Trump had won. Even better, in my mind, La Clinton had lost.
We retired to our hotel across the river and slept the sleep of the righteous. Woke up in the morning to find that he had, in fact won.
Came back to the hotel after a day at the tradeshow to find a mob of angry demonstrators mobbing all the streets around Trump Tower and our hotel. We had to walk about 3 blocks through a tiny path that the police had cleared.
My son went out and mingled and took pictures of all the trash and graffitti. In the morning the whole area was pristine. No graffitti, no trash, like it never even happened.
That Wednesday was the happiest trade show I have ever attended.
John Henry
I prefer the other, poor man's, Craig Newmark. Proprietor of Newmark's Door economics blog.
John Henry
The Democrats seem to be waking up to the fact that cheating is going to be a lot harder this year, which makes the "likely voter" model they had been counting on of 7D-5R-5I a complete fantasy.
I think a lot polls over sample Democrats in an attempt to demoralize Trump voters.
The Harris campaign is still running ads which claim that Trump's Project 2025 is going to take away the voting rights of Black people and outlaw abortion.
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