Althouse: Sunrise — 7:10, 7:12.

११ ऑक्टोबर, २०२२

Sunrise — 7:10, 7:12.

४५ टिप्पण्या:

West TX Intermediate Crude म्हणाले...: Re registering for the draft-

US citizens or immigrants who are born male and changed their gender to female are still required to register. Individuals who are born female and changed their gender to male are not required to register.

Good to know, I guess.
Not sure if this is misogyny, or transphobism, or TERFy.

https://www.sss.gov/register/who-needs-to-register/; ११/१०/२२, ६:१० PM
Lem Vibe Bandit म्हणाले...: Darkhorse clip: Governments censoring voices by working in conjunction with social media giants (Ramsey Ramerman)

The courts have not been captured... yet. Brett believes it's only a matter of time.

On the ground: "Florida surgeon general blocked from sharing COVID vaccine study on Twitter"; ११/१०/२२, ६:३७ PM
h म्हणाले...: Polls are often wrong because they over-sample Democrats and undersample Republicans. Here's an example from this year's New Hampshire Senate race. The St. Anselm’s poll shows Democrat incumbent Hassan winning over Republican challenger Bolduc by 49 to 43%. https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/SACSC_NHSW_0922_Book.pdf

The published polls shows that the sample was
Dem 30% Rep 32% Ind 38%

But the 2020 exit poll from CNN : https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/new-hampshire showed the voters split
Dem 23% Rep 31% Ind 46%

It's hard to believe that Dems are so energized that they will achieve a share of the vote this year that is 30% higher (7 percentage points higher than the 23 in 2016) than they received in 2016.; ११/१०/२२, ६:४३ PM
Kay म्हणाले...: If I ever had to do my own blog that wasn’t art related, I think I’d want to do something like this blog except the posts would be about like buzzfeed articles instead of the nyt.; ११/१०/२२, ६:४४ PM
Lem Vibe Bandit म्हणाले...: When they say the quiet part out loud is another signal that the coast is clear.

From watchdog to enabler. 😧

Another link to a Darkhorse clip; ११/१०/२२, ६:४७ PM
gilbar म्हणाले...: it's nice that the sun's quit being bashful; and trying to stick to the schedule; ११/१०/२२, ६:५२ PM
Lem Vibe Bandit म्हणाले...: Local News tip: if you are going on a roller-coaster and you have a new iPhone, put the iPhone on plane mode before going on the ride, or leave behind. The iPhone is contacting emergency services believing it's human has been in accident.; ११/१०/२२, ६:५७ PM
Birches म्हणाले...: I wonder which commenters are getting paid for pro-Evers content? Dems Pay for Fake Support; ११/१०/२२, ७:०० PM
gilbar म्हणाले...: today's (tomorrows!) WSJ..
Biden’s Marijuana Pardon Won’t Release a Single Inmate
Incarceration rates are driven by violent crime, not drug crime. Democrats don’t like that story.
By Jason L. Riley

Even Mr. Biden had to concede that no one is in federal prison for simple marijuana possession. What he didn’t say is that even among those housed in state prisons—which hold about 90% of the country’s incarcerated population—a relatively small percentage is there on drug offenses, and almost all of those were convicted of trafficking, not for being caught with small amounts of drugs for personal use.; ११/१०/२२, ७:०२ PM
robother म्हणाले...: On a leaf walk around my neighborhood in Boulder today, I realized that I hadn't encountered a single Democrat yard sign. Curious to hear whether people are seeing similar, uh, negative space, in Madison or other liberal enclaves.; ११/१०/२२, ७:०३ PM
hawkeyedjb म्हणाले...: Brandon gives advice: If you can't do anything useful, be a politician.

“All my buddies either became a firefighter, a cop, or a priest. I wasn’t qualified for any of them, so here I am.”; ११/१०/२२, ७:३० PM
Andrew म्हणाले...: The J.D. Vance v. Tim Ryan debate was last night, here in Ohio. I thought Vance did excellent, better than I thought he would. Ryan came off as a typical establishment politician. Reading the reviews online it's hard to tell if any minds were swayed. Basically everyone is saying their man won. But it's interesting to me that Ryan explicitly said that Biden should not run again, and the country needs younger leaders. That to me was quite telling, that he knows it's good strategy to put Biden down.; ११/१०/२२, ७:४७ PM
Andrew म्हणाले...: The J.D. Vance v. Tim Ryan debate was last night, here in Ohio. I thought Vance did excellent, better than I thought he would. Ryan came off as a typical establishment politician. Reading the reviews online it's hard to tell if any minds were swayed. Basically everyone is saying their man won. But it's interesting to me that Ryan explicitly said that Biden should not run again, and the country needs younger leaders. That to me was quite telling, that he knows it's good strategy to put Biden down.; ११/१०/२२, ७:४७ PM
wildswan म्हणाले...: Just once I succeeded in getting a shot of a moon as large we see it. At twilight - it was harvest moon size and right next to a TV antenna tower, toward the bottom and in between two layers of clouds.; ११/१०/२२, ७:५६ PM
Michelle Dulak Thomson म्हणाले...: For those who commented on the thread about Richard Taruskin's death some time ago, there was a memorial service for him on Saturday at Cal. I was there, as were a lot of much more important people. This thing is long -- at least three hours long -- but it does give a sense of the man, better than I could have done myself, because there were aspects of his life that I never saw.

Anyway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUsDAEVRECg; ११/१०/२२, ७:५९ PM
Narr म्हणाले...: Not much political signage around here either. Perhaps an indicator of exhaustion, but at any rate people seem to be keeping their preferences close to their chests.; ११/१०/२२, ८:२४ PM
Joe Smith म्हणाले...: Saw the first part of Hannity after Tucker.

I never noticed it to be this bad before, but when he says his S's he whistles like Zamfir.

Doesn't he have the $$ to find a decent dentist to get it fixed?

Distracting AF.; ११/१०/२२, ८:३६ PM
Joe Smith म्हणाले...: 'On a leaf walk around my neighborhood in Boulder today, I realized that I hadn't encountered a single Democrat yard sign.'

I was in Florida before the 2016 election.

Trump signs everywhere. Ten-to-one vs Hillary.

That's when I knew he would win...; ११/१०/२२, ८:४२ PM
narciso म्हणाले...: https://mobile.twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1580008305577332738?cxt=HHwWhMDUwdjLqO0rAAAA; ११/१०/२२, ८:४४ PM
Saint Croix म्हणाले...: Polls are often wrong because they over-sample Democrats and under-sample Republicans.

I don't know why the media does it this way, but most of the time they do "registered voters."

And then when you get closer to the election, it's "likely voters."

That sampling shift alone makes a big difference, and usually it helps Republicans. A lot of voters sit out mid-term elections. So I expect the polls to shift to the right as we get closer to the election.

(I have no idea why they do it this way, as it really helps Republicans, and makes it seem like we have the momentum -- when really it's just a shift in the polling samples).

The other problem is that a fair number of polling outfits lean Democrat, too. So they frame their questions badly. "Do you think an unborn baby is a person with a right to life?" They don't ask that question.

In general I think polls are sketchy and not very trust-worthy. They are not half as scientific as they think they are. Any alleged "scientist" who is dividing people into racial categories is not much of a scientist. In fact I question the whole idea of "representation," like if you talk to 100 people, you know what I think. No, you don't. You want to know what I think, you got to talk to me.; ११/१०/२२, ८:५१ PM
Mason G म्हणाले...: "but at any rate people seem to be keeping their preferences close to their chests."

If you reveal yourself to be Republican, you're at risk of bodily injury or death. If you reveal yourself to be Democrat, you're at risk of being thought an idiot.; ११/१०/२२, ९:२६ PM
Caroline म्हणाले...: I’m curious about The People Of The Mask. And why they continue to wear masks outdoors, indoors, whatever. The other day I was in a “mask mandatory” setting, an outpatient surgical center. I was the only person in the waiting room, waiting for husbands procedure. I took my mask off. The receptionist came out from behind her plexiglass to tell me THIS IS VERBOTEN. I was not belligérant, but expressed my sympathy that she and her peers were required to work in a hostile masked environment, and respectfully inquired when Texas Health would return to normal. She doesn’t believe it will ever happen, masks are here forever. I explained that to my mind , this damages the credibility of a health provider. There is no health benefit to requiring me to mask, or their employees. I can’t make her sick, because I’m not sick.
A related observation, in the grocery store today. Two employees stocking produce, talking. The masked one telling the unmasked one that she tried going without a mask and kept getting sick. My thought was: if you’re someone who has worn a mask since March 2020, (and they are legion), YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM IS SHIT. I am not a doctor. But this thought occurred to me a cou0le of years ago, the damage done to the immune systems of small children by keeping them artificially protected from any and all germs, microbes, contagions, at a formative stage. Why isn’t anyone talking about this?; ११/१०/२२, ९:२९ PM
Caroline म्हणाले...: I’m curious about The People Of The Mask. And why they continue to wear masks outdoors, indoors, whatever. The other day I was in a “mask mandatory” setting, an outpatient surgical center. I was the only person in the waiting room, waiting for husbands procedure. I took my mask off. The receptionist came out from behind her plexiglass to tell me THIS IS VERBOTEN. I was not belligérant, but expressed my sympathy that she and her peers were required to work in a hostile masked environment, and respectfully inquired when Texas Health would return to normal. She doesn’t believe it will ever happen, masks are here forever. I explained that to my mind , this damages the credibility of a health provider. There is no health benefit to requiring me to mask, or their employees. I can’t make her sick, because I’m not sick.
A related observation, in the grocery store today. Two employees stocking produce, talking. The masked one telling the unmasked one that she tried going without a mask and kept getting sick. My thought was: if you’re someone who has worn a mask since March 2020, (and they are legion), YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM IS SHIT. I am not a doctor. But this thought occurred to me a cou0le of years ago, the damage done to the immune systems of small children by keeping them artificially protected from any and all germs, microbes, contagions, at a formative stage. Why isn’t anyone talking about this?; ११/१०/२२, ९:३० PM
William म्हणाले...: I gave up on the Marilyn Monroe biopic. Too much of a downer, Netflix also has a documentary about the circumstances surrounding her death. It was interesting and revelatory of facts that I did not know....There is no evidence to suggest that Marilyn died of anything other than a suicide or an accidental overdose. There is, however, plenty of evidence that the FBI went to the scene of her death and scrubbed it of all evidence that would link her to the Kennedy brothers Robert Kennedy was in LA and perhaps supervised the cover up.....Both JFK and Robert Kennedy were concurrently having an affair with her, although (one hopes) not simultaneously. A lot of people in Hollywood knew about this. There were reporters who knew about the affairs and about the discrepancies surrounding the official time line of her death, but they did not report on these matters...I give Marilyn some sympathy for her erratic behavior. But everything that I learn about the Kennedy brothers, people in Hollywood, and newspaper reporters makes me think ill of them.....I wonder if the me-too movement will ever catch up with the Kennedys.; ११/१०/२२, ९:५२ PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) म्हणाले...: Politico’s sleazy excuse-making after running a detailed account of the Republican lady’s sexual assault after she begged them not to, and against Politico’s alleged policy is growing worse by the day.; ११/१०/२२, १०:१६ PM
Mike of Snoqualmie म्हणाले...: Our new house is surrounded by forest on three sides (east, south and west) with only the road side (north) not having any trees. The trees are quite tall (~100-ft?) and are blocking the sunlight. The house is in the shade until mid-afternoon, so it stays cool until then. The propane tank will be hooked up next Monday, so we'll have some heat. Until then, it's keep the sweatshirt on until the afternoon.; ११/१०/२२, १०:४९ PM
TwoAndAHalfCents म्हणाले...: Here’s my roughly quarterly post looking for book recommendations from the Althouse community. I just finished McCullough’s The Pioneers - I’d give it a 4 out of 5 - and am looking for similar (history, nonfiction) but am open to anything.; १२/१०/२२, ३:२८ AM
Jaq म्हणाले...: LOL, the FBI offered a "[pinky at corner of mouth] one million dollar" reward for dirt on Donald Trump. Still Steele, with all that incentive, could not corroborate anything in the dossier.

How to correctly greet "Slava Ukraine," page from an old manual.
https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1579261090097418241; १२/१०/२२, ४:५५ AM
wendybar म्हणाले...: You would THINK this would be a bigger story....but it's not, because it implicates the Corrupt FBI were after Trump from the beginning.

Sean Langille
@SeanLangille
NEW: During questioning from Special Counsel John Durham, Brian Auten, a supervisory counter intelligence analyst with the FBI, revealed the FBI offered Christopher Steele one million dollars if he could corroborate allegations in the Dossier, but that Steele could not do so.
4:31 PM · Oct 11, 2022

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2022/10/11/report-fbi-offered-christopher-steele-1-million-if-he-could-corroborate-allegations-in-the-dossier/; १२/१०/२२, ४:५६ AM
Humperdink म्हणाले...: How desperate are the Commie-Pinko Dems in Pennsylvania? The dementia wing of the party is running television ads that Dr. Oz will end Medicare and social security in 5 years. How innovative!; १२/१०/२२, ६:३० AM
Rusty म्हणाले...: If you visit Real Clear politics and read the polls you'll never know there is an election in Illinois for governor and for one of our senate seats(Duckworth). The reason behind that is that the fix is in.; १२/१०/२२, ६:३६ AM
Andrew म्हणाले...: @TwoAndAHalfCents,
Have you ever read Lincoln at Gettysburg, by Garry Wills? That's a favorite of mine. It gave me an entirely new appreciation for Lincoln's speech. Reading it was to experience one epiphany after another. It also has fascinating background information, for example on the history of cemeteries, and the rhetoric of that era as embodied in Edward Everett (who really deserves to be less obscure). A must read.

My favorite assigned book that I read as a history major in college (in the pre-Internet ancient world) was The Cheese and the Worms, by Carlo Ginzburg. It's an example of "microhistory," set during the Protestant Reformation, and is absolutely fascinating. It's scholarly, but readable. There's a Wikipedia entry on the book if you'd like to know more.

If you're a political junkie, Game Change was fun reading. Made me have even less respect for McCain than I already did (despite reluctantly voting for him). The book kind of mocks Palin, but she comes across as a tragic figure in my view. She was thrust into the national spotlight with no preparation, and then given no support from the campaign. Lots of insight into our ridiculous campaign process. Plenty of reasons to hate both establishment political parties. (Hence, Trump.); १२/१०/२२, ६:३८ AM
wendybar म्हणाले...: I just heard Joe Biden explaining this with Jake Tapper. Same old lie we hear over and over and over again, when Progressives have NOTHING else to run on.

"How you know the election is 4 weeks away.

Jonathan Chait of New York Magazine claimed, "Republicans Plan Debt Crisis to Force Cuts to Medicare, Social Security."

And we all know that Republicans disclose their secret plans to liberal columnists

Democrats have pushed the cuts-to-Social Security lie ever since I can remember."

H/T Don Surber; १२/१०/२२, ७:१० AM
exhelodrvr1 म्हणाले...: Two and a half,
Have you read Jeff Shaara's books? Strongly recommend them (also "KIller Angels" by his father). Very good military historical fiction; १२/१०/२२, ७:२४ AM
wendybar म्हणाले...: "Convince me there is a difference between university and asylum….."

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2022/10/11/university-of-florida-students-air-their-concerns-about-alt-right-guy-ben-sasse-becoming-president/; १२/१०/२२, ७:३६ AM
Curious George म्हणाले...: Caroline said...
...and respectfully inquired when Texas Health would return to normal. She doesn’t believe it will ever happen, masks are here forever."

Same here is Wisconsin. Froedtert and Medical College of Wisconsin both require them, and I asked the same question and got the same answer. My PCP doesn't require them...masks are off in the exam rooms.; १२/१०/२२, ७:४९ AM
Kai Akker म्हणाले...: @TwoandaHalfCents

Here are two and a half recommendations of nonfiction books that have been memorable reads to me.

On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace, by the classics scholar Donald Kagan. You probably know of him; Kagan just passed away a year ago after a lifetime on the Yale faculty. That sounds like no recommendation now, but he was celebrated in his field and eventually outside it, especially for standing up to early Wokeness. The book covers five historical conflicts in detail, each one separately: the Peloponnesian War, on whose study he made his reputation; each of the two World Wars; the Second Punic War; and the Cuban Missile Crisis.

From Dawn to Decadence, 1500 to the Present; 500 Years of Western Cultural Life, by Jacques Barzun, which he managed to publish in 2000 on the dot, at age 90. It was a project, for me, but you will learn a lot you had to have missed along the way. A tremendous book and he has a thesis which he believes that half-millennium illustrates.

The Dark Valley, by Piers Brendon, who was for a time Keeper of the Churchill Archives. It's a history of the 1930s across multiple key nations. As such, the book itself is a dark valley, and that is why this is the half-recommendation among these three. But if the subject interests you, this is a very thorough and often surprising book that includes many unpleasant parallels to today that help keep the reader going.; १२/१०/२२, ७:५५ AM
Eva Marie म्हणाले...: Michelle Dulak Thomson, thank you for that link. At the end of the first photo montage, Karol Berger is quoted,"Over forty years later, we met for the last time in late April . . . In despair over the way Russia turned out, he [Taruskin] wondered whether he has not
wasted his life studying her culture . . .” So sad - especially for the folks trying to survive in Russia, Ukraine and maybe for the rest of us if the awful awful happens. Anyway, it was a lovely tribute to a life well lived.; १२/१०/२२, ७:५७ AM
Jersey Fled म्हणाले...: "LOL, the FBI offered a "[pinky at corner of mouth] one million dollar" reward for dirt on Donald Trump. Still Steele, with all that incentive, could not corroborate anything in the dossier."

In Phllly they call this "walking around money". It's meant to be passed out as a bribe to get people to come to the polls and vote for your candidate.

Just saying; १२/१०/२२, ८:०५ AM
Eva Marie म्हणाले...: Here are my 2 recommendations, both by Laurence Bergreen - Over the Edge of the World: Magellans Terrifying Circumnavigation of the Globe and Marco Polo: From Venice to Xanadu.; १२/१०/२२, ९:१२ AM
wendybar म्हणाले...: THIS is how crazy the lies from the left are about January 6th. The Capitol Police started a lot of the craziness. WHY aren't they being held accountable for THEIR actions?? This is sick. I can't believe this is America. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/incredible-must-see-video-decorated-marine-21-year-nypd-officer-thomas-webster-turn-tomorrow-serve-decade-prison-exculpatory-video-shows-violent-dc-metro-cop-punch-webster/; १२/१०/२२, ९:१८ AM
n.n म्हणाले...: masks are here forever.

For the sake of consistency, it must be noted that the... a pandemic is a state in progress. People who took a knee to the cargo cult, perhaps with em-pathetic relief, can never remove their masks. And they must receive vaccines, perhaps therapeutic treatments, to, not reduce infection or transmission, but to mitigate symptoms.; १२/१०/२२, १०:०३ AM
Narr म्हणाले...: My visit last week to the heart docs also had me wearing a mask the whole time--at least the whole time I wasn't alone, or sipping my coffee. "Healtheater" (non-commercial use with attribution granted).

In book news, "The Age of Wood" by Roland Ennos is a superb and wide-ranging account of how Man and Wood have literally and figuratively shaped one another ever since we lived in the trees. Eye-opening a la Kurlansky's "Salt," "Cod," and "Paper."

I'll second Barzun's "Dawn to Decadence." And I'll mention again Virginia Postrel's "The Fabric of Civilization."

Sad to think Taruskin doubted the value of his life interest in Russian culture.; १२/१०/२२, २:५० PM
Mark म्हणाले...: About that billion dollar judgment against Alex Jones -- an AWFUL lot of noise for something that will be overturned on appeal.; १२/१०/२२, ३:५० PM
Michelle Dulak Thomson म्हणाले...: Eva Marie, thanks. It was a remarkable tribute, not least for including so many different aspects of his life. I would never have expected him, for example, to have had private viola da gamba students, much less treated them so painstakingly as Lisa Terry described.

But who am I kidding? He treated everyone that way. Though he suffered fools not at all, and if you'd done something idiotic, he would tell you so. Which is why he wasn't on my Ph.D. orals committee. :-)

Narr, the saddest part is that almost the entire time he was studying Russian musical culture, it was under a one-party state -- first the Tsars, then the Soviets. He must have hoped 1991 would have killed that last virulent strain off, but there are still too many Russians who remember the USSR being feared, and want that feeling back. Putin has probably overreached by now -- If I were an insurer, I'd back off from making odds on his lasting even the year -- but whoever follows might well be worse.; १२/१०/२२, ८:११ PM