"For one thing, politics today are more nationalized than in the past, so pollsters may be incentivized to conduct national surveys.... [S]tate-level polls may require more difficult choices to properly interpret results.... Polling has become more expensive and more challenging, as the response rate to more traditional polling methods, like live telephone calls, is sometimes below 1 percent. Moreover, recent polling misses in 2016 and 2020 — note that 2018 polls were comparatively better — may have also made major news organizations more hesitant to put themselves out there by releasing surveys of important statewide races.... [C]ompared with past cycles, polls in 2022 are more likely to be sponsored or associated with partisan sources.... All of this is a challenge for what we do at FiveThirtyEight, and we hope that pollsters and news organizations figure out how to offer the public greater polling information in the future."
From "You're Not Imagining It: There Are Fewer Polls This Cycle/And a larger share come from partisan sources" (FiveThirtyEight).
Poor FiveThirtyEight! They can't do their thing without the raw material that is polling.
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४० टिप्पण्या:
I'm also finding 538's service is far less valuable than it used to be. I'm not seeing a lot of insights, Silver doesn't help me understand what's going on. Maybe he never did, but I used to feel like he did. Now I don't.
Modern polling works well when Democrats win, works badly when Republicans win.
It doesn't take a genius to figure out what is going on here.
Polling has become increasingly difficult. With the demise of land lines, caller ID so people can avoid the pollsters and a reliance on cell phones, polling reliability has dropped. Particularly with respect to candidate choice where the differences might be in the low single digits. In some cases, when polling on issues, the differences are clearer and patterns can be established as well as trends. For example, climate change polls very, very low, probably for a number of reasons but inflation polls at the top and has consistently been at the top for months. Abortion, on the other hand, rose on the scales after Dobbs but has since faded to almost a second tier issue, again behind the various elements of inflation. By correlating issue emphasis with candidates, pollsters can hedge their findings. Larger trends, like Hispanic support for Republicans, can also be measure fairly accurately.
Another real problem is getting a sense for voter enthusiasm. That, again, tends to be an anecdotal finding. Things like yard sign penetration and small donor participation can be used in the analysis.
What's a "partisan source?"
Is that where poll results are pre-determined to show a specific outcome? Like a "push poll?"
And which, pray tell, of the polls are untrustworthy seeing as how they come from "partisan sources?" I notice that 538 seems to be aware of which ones you cannot trust, but doesn't tell us which ones you can trust and which ones you cannot.
Isn't that interesting? Why would they hide that information?
What's a "partisan source?"
Is that where poll results are pre-determined to show a specific outcome? Like a "push poll?"
And which, pray tell, of the polls are untrustworthy seeing as how they come from "partisan sources?" I notice that 538 seems to be aware of which ones you cannot trust, but doesn't tell us which ones you can trust and which ones you cannot.
Isn't that interesting? Why would they hide that information?
politics today are more nationalized than in the past, so pollsters may be incentivized to conduct national surveys..
Everything is sooo complicated.
The incentive to conduct the poll is the money paid to the pollster. Polls are not alturistic services provided to voters. Polls are bought by persons that want a defined product. The buyer's needs are the incentive.
Here in Iowa they are running the story the last 2 days that the Senate Race, With R Grassely vs D Franken. Franken closing the lead Grassely has always had. Now within the margin of error.
There are two current polls out there. One bought by Franken and one bought by the RNC. The local media choose the poll with Franken within 3. Not the one other with Franken within 8.
Polls are content for the media to push a narrative.
Thats all polls are.
FiveThirtyEight! are frauds. They are the gatekeepers for the New Soviet Democraticals cyclical "polling" scams whereby the democratical themes are emphasized for daily narrative manipulation and impact: Roe Changes Everything and Help Dems Immensely!
The scams also raise democratical morale and promote democratical fundraising efforts with how they are timed: Democraticals are always doing just "great" thru the spring and summer months in the "polls" with results that are insane. (Andrew Gillum is up by 13 over DeSantis!!!) and the dems money comes flowing in.
Then, always "unexpectedly", those polls continue to tighten ever so slightly over time until, usually within just 24 to 48 hours prior to an election, the pro-dem skewed polls, still dem skewing, show the republicans "closer than expected" and possibly "a tossup!".
Oooooooooh. Quelle surprise!
538 also makes sure that any "pollsters" that do not behave/poll/are more accurate than the bevy of BS democratical pollsters get downgraded and shunted off to the side. If a pollster is not actively aligned with the left, they are considered far right and not reputable despite outperforming the idiot university/establishment pollsters every time over the last 8+ years in particular.
Trafalgar (Cahaly) and Big Data (Rich Baris) lead the charge of these competent pollsters who just keep getting it right.
BTW, if you want to know which pollsters the GOPe establishment avoids, its also Cahaly and Baris. Gee, who saw that coming....besides everyone that is...
538 and the democraticals do not like to do detailed state level polling: its harder to hide the democraticals fanatical outside the norm lunacy responses of the electorate. So what 538 and the rest of them do are national and generic polls where overrepresenting the largest deep blue states enables them to skew the results to whatever they want the results to be.
Its all so transparent and only fools the True Believers of the far left and Nevertrump (but I repeat myself).
It's unbelievably dumb to thing that "legacy media" is unbiased and non-partisan.
I've never heard of The Trafalgar Group, which is derided as a "Republican pollster."
This is a company that is in the business of doing polls for whichever candidate needs polling info. They don't advertise as a Republican business and I doubt very much they would turn down a Democrat who wanted to pay them money to conduct a poll.
You got to be some kind of idiot to think that a polling outfit is "non-partisan" because it's sponsored by a university. Or a legacy media outlet!
Every human being involved in politics is partisan. It's a constant problem and if you're trying to get legitimate information about what actual people think, you should be on guard against it.
The other problem is that published polls are an attempt to sway voters. They are inherently biased.
I would think campaigns would very much like an honest assessment of what voters think. Who wants to be pay for false info? Published polls are intended to sway public opinion, while private polls are intended to find what voters actually think.
I think Nate Silver came over to politics from the world of baseball statistics. I would welcome any kind of fact-based journalism. That's because it's been sorely lacking in our society! It's bizarre to bemoan the lack of polling from traditional media, who are skimping on the service precisely because their revenues are down, which is happening because fewer and fewer people trust their biased news.
Five Thirty Eight should take a page out of the Bill James handbook and find your own damn statistics. Why would anybody trust your models if your sources are shit?
I practically never watch CNN, but it happened to be on in my home last night, and so I watched a couple minutes.
CNN reported that the latest, most significant opinion poll shows Fetterman leading Oz 51% to 45% in the Pennsylvania race for US Senator.
Does anyone else find it interesting that ABCNews is so UNTRUSTED by its viewers that they had to re-brand as FiveThirtyEight seeing as how the ABCNews brand is so tainted?
Creola wrote: "Polling has become increasingly difficult. With the demise of land lines, caller ID so people can avoid the pollsters and a reliance on cell phones, polling reliability has dropped."
Polling reliability is in the tank because literally NOBODY wants to be polled. The only people who are answering polls are self-selecting.
Self-selecting polls are inherently untrustworthy (they're one step above internet polls). You're not getting a true cross-selection of people in the universe. You're only getting people who self-select to participate in polls. Lonely spinsters, crazy people, people with an ax to grind, etc.
Yet another sin to lay at the two party system.
More seriously, it is also a feflection on the death of local and regional media / journalism. Everything is franchised, or part of a national (or international) syndicate. Their isn’t an appetite for the high volume, low margin work required to cover local / regional politics.
They just lowering expectations. Can't believe 538 is still a thing other than a poster child for libtard delusional narcissistic personality traits.
Bless his heart, Nate is trying y'all, he really is.
Polls should not exist.
Politicians should state clearly what their beliefs and governing philosophies are, how they would vote or enforce proposed legislation, and anything else of importance that they want to convey to voters.
Voters should then weigh all of the above, and vote for the best, or least worst, of the available candidates.
The custom of taking a poll and then "adjusting" a politician's message, is dishonest and counterproductive.
Polls, like the CDC and the NIH, have lost their credibility by their actions. Nobody trusts any of them.
I think my cell phone number used to be owned by a black girl in Georgia.
Because Democrats in Georgia are constantly asking me for my African-American input.
Also they think I am a guy named Marshall.
"Can we count on you to vote for Warnock for Senate and Abrams for Governor on Nov 8?"
I texted back...
"No you cannot I am pro-life! We have death statutes that define when people die. Democrats don't care but I do!"
Anyway, I stopped hearing from the nurses union.
The Dems know they are going to lose.
But if they tell the truth, their voters won't turn out and their losses will increase.
LOL. All the media polls in 2016 and 2018 came from "partisan sources". The MSM was in the tank for the D's. Five thirty eight was too.
In addition to rigging their polls, the News media polls always suffered from oversampling Democrats and sample sizes that were too small. These flaws were pointed out to them numerous times, yet never corrected. For obvious reasons.
Personally, I don't know how they can do accurate polling in this day and age. People don't pick up and answer the phone unless they know you. They don't answer the door if you're a stranger. Large numbers aren't impressed by "CBS News calling". Neilson tried to get my wife to do some survey or something, and she just threw it in the trash.
Drago is exactly correct. Opinion polls are the worst, and are usually nothing more than Leftwing attempts to push the narrative. It should be noted that not only does the phrasing of the questions skew the results, its much more difficult to choose an accurate and representative sample on opinion polls.
Commenters here (and everywhere) are saying Polls are unrealistic, yada yada, but that's completely missing the point. It's acting as if published polls are intended to perform research. They almost never are.
Published polls are marketing efforts. They are seeking to achieve something - to drive something into the polled population or to create a public impression of something.
Private polls - those tell the truth. That's where people are paid big bucks to accurately measure something so the result can be actioned upon. And that's not what 538 has access to, nor their market.
if you dont believe who wins the contest (or just don't like who won) why would you believe in a poll? Beaucoup dinky dau. Silly rabbit :)
Kevin: "The Dems know they are going to lose.
But if they tell the truth, their voters won't turn out and their losses will increase."
Perfectly stated.
And the dems don't have large enough cheating mechanisms in place now that there has been some push significant legal push back against the unconstitutional actions taken by the dems/NeverTrump/BigTech/"Fortifiers" in 2020.
No news is bad news.
When you lose people's trust, it is very hard to get it back. It is especially hard when you refuse to apologize or do better. It is extremely hard when you hate the other people and the other people know it.
One of the great fallacies of the corrupt is that once they take over a respected institution and then corrupt it beyond all recognition, that the institution will continue to be respected. Oh, the people may not notice the change immediately, but they will notice. Once they notice, the change will come suddenly. So it is with polling.
So when pollsters began to think that they might be able to determine who would win an election before the voters had their say at the polls, evolving technology made the pollsters, rather than the electorate, obsolete.
There is a nice lesson in that, but surveillance and analytical technologies are so advanced that it's only matter of time before new algorithms determine what people want and ultimately decide what they get. Polls, though, could at least pretend to be voluntary and participatory, so they could be shared with the public. New techniques and their results may not be.
It's amazing how much money, time and effort are put into something that doesn't mean a damn thing.
Not.A.Damn.Thing.
Lets talk about unicorn farts.
For reasons mentioned above the polls are mostly Leftist projections and not reality. When it comes to state and local politics just about every Democrat running espouses the same Leftist talking points as the Democrats running for Federal office and they ignore what the voters are really concerned which is crime, schools and services.
When polls started being used to push voter opinion rather than push candidate policy, they became useless to the populace.
there are still enough freaks out there who sometimes pick up the phone that polls kinda-sorta work a little bit sometimes if you squint. don't think it will last much longer.
Blogger Drago said...
Kevin: "The Dems know they are going to lose.
But if they tell the truth, their voters won't turn out and the money will dry up.
FIFY
The polls take their raw data and adjust it to fit a demographic model that matches the distribution of potential voters across the two parties (plus independents). But given the earnest efforts Democrats are engaged in to run off as many identity groups as possible, how big is the Democrats’ base really? During the Obama years they ran working people out of the party, and during the Trump years they told lots of Hispanics to go pound sand. In 2021 and this year it was time for the mothers of children in grades K-12 to choose between their children and the Democrats.
So how many are left?
"They just lowering expectations. Can't believe 538 is still a thing other than a poster child for libtard delusional narcissistic personality traits."
Five Thirty-Eight does more data analysis than politics. I would say the other stuff is inherently more interesting and probably more thorough.
If there is something lacking in the market, then 538 should position itself to provide it. Instead, it complains. On the other hand, Real Clear Politics is positioning itself.
Moreover, recent polling misses in 2016 and 2020 — note that 2018 polls were comparatively better
There's a joke about "economists have predicted 12 of the last 5 recessions."
What they're saying is "we are always going to predict that the Democrats win. So when they do win, we look good."
Which is another way of saying "these polls ar always garbage"
Known Unknown: "Five Thirty-Eight does more data analysis than politics. I would say the other stuff is inherently more interesting and probably more thorough."
Their sports stuff is crap as well.
Butkus51: "It's amazing how much money, time and effort are put into something that doesn't mean a damn thing."
It means something alright. But its about what it allows the corrupt "pollsters" to do along the way, not at the end.
DINKY DAU 45: "if you dont believe who wins the contest (or just don't like who won) why would you believe in a poll? Beaucoup dinky dau. Silly rabbit :)"
I suppose you meant something by this.
Well, at least you tried.
mikee, Polls were always useless to the "populace". Polls are useful to the folks PAYING for the polls.
It's perfectly possible to get good information, it's just more expensive than folks want to pay. (for instance, many moons ago I paid a few hundred $ / year for a monthly 6 page newsletter called Aviation Safety. No ads. All reports, data, and statistics referenced to original sources. I read every word every month.)
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