NPR reported 2 days ago.
Now, there's a second hurricane, Earl, forming out in the Atlantic, USA Today reports, and headed away from us.
७ सप्टेंबर, २०२२
"For months, the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was notable for one reason: a complete lack of hurricanes."
"That finally changed on Friday, when Danielle strengthened into the Atlantic's first hurricane since last October.... [I]it's been a quiet summer: 60 days elapsed from Tropical Storm Colin's demise on July 3 and Danielle's arrival on Sept. 1."
NPR reported 2 days ago.
NPR reported 2 days ago.
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Yet in most every “green” speech Biden lies about global warming causing more and stronger hurricanes when the evidence is overwhelmingly in conflict with talking point.
Of course NPR being NPR the lack of hurricane activity since Katrina is proof of global warming errr climate change.
But we were told that due to CAGW that hurricanes were a constant threat.
I'd like to step out and call this good news and say it's all over for this year, but living in Florida, I don't say anything about it until the hurricane season has passed. Bad juju to do otherwise.
What I will say is that the pre-season projections of doom and Worst Hurricanes Evah and more of them than you can count, which come out annually and get recited across all media are typically as worthless as me projecting next year's NFL draft. What you don't get are apologies for being scare mongers and climate change hucksters at the end of the season.
Over the years, not much has changed for us here in Florida. We still get the occasional hurricanes, some bad, many more light, and a handful that are very bad. Same as it ever was. What we seem to have more of than we used to are New Yorkers. And that, more than hurricanes might end up affecting how this state operates.
There were some storms last year but the prevailing track they took was far out to sea. Fish storms, Maue calls them…
“Obviously, climate change is real and very important, and we must move aggressively,” said Roger Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental science at the University of Colorado Boulder. “But it’s not like there’s a safe climate that we’ve turned into a dangerous one.”
Sounds just like the covid hedging the sciencey government experts were peddling last year. I’m more convinced they’re all just a bunch of effing shills…
Too many hurricanes = clear evidence of Climate Change.
Too few hurricanes = clear evidence of Climate Change.
Reading that story is a case study in cognitive dissonance. The writer's absolute certainty about what is expected and how climate change affects the hurricane season in an article explaining why their predictions have been wrong amuses endlessly.
So far into the destruction of the earth from global warming, I'd expect there to have been 21-22 hurricanes by now. Even though they've been spectacularly wrong about forecasting things months or years out, I am still 1,000,000% confident that their forecast about events decades away will be completely accurate.
Doesn't giving hurricanes human names humanize them?
I can understand why they didn't name them like British warships though: Terrible, Indominable, Indefatigable.
Yet one more prediction of higher hurricane occurrence has run smack into the brick wall of evidence.
No trend in landfalling hurricanes since records began.
Hurricanes are weather, not climate. Glacial retreat or advance, annual stratospheric average temperature, average annual cloud cover for the planet, those sorts of things are climate.
Getting ready to paddle out for a few waves here at Huguenot Park across the St Johns River from Mayport Naval Station. Going to have good waves all week from this the Earl and Fiona. It's grand to be 70, retired and still chasing waves. Cowabunga!
The beauty of the “climate change” hypothesis is that it explains everything. Nothing can ever falsify it. This spares its proponents the trouble of thinking; of collecting and weighing data and defending their predictions; of doing anything except waving their hands and screeching “Denier!” at anyone who questions their dire forecasts and gauzy magical promises.
Seems to me that Winter is coming. We will suffer; but Europe will be absolutely hammered. Will they learn? Will we?
Anthropogenic warming may or may not be happening, but the "extreme weather" angle is complete bullshit, manufactured to scare people. Hurricanes are scarier than warm spells.
dI know! Reducew the windspeed needed for "hurricane" definition. The way, we can have more! It's genius.
Like when the weather guys started naming any three snowflakes which got south from Canada as a winter storm with their very own proper Nouns. Now we ahave all these winter storms we didn't used to have.
I suspect somebody's going to figure this out pretty quick and we'll be back to increasing hurricane activity.
We were told it would be an above normal hurricane season, trust the models!
If you live in South Florida you've been watching Danielle and Earl for over a week.
Africa starting farting out these storms from the desert to the Atlantic later this year than in past years, it seems to me. The dust clouds this year have also acted to suppress them over the water.
Now we're entering peak season.
"Hurricane Earl" doesn't sound threatening enough. Whoever names the hurricanes needs to up their game if we are all supposed to be afraid of climate change.
The Dems and their media adjunct:
"[Whatever just happened yesterday] is further proof of the existential climate emergency/crisis and further justification that we be given dictatorial powers to re-arrange the economy in whatever way we deem suitable."
[Forget about what happened last week or what we said about it. No longer operative.]
The headline in USA Today, "Hurricane Earl forms as second hurricane of the 2022 season; headed toward Bermuda". Those of us who live in Bermuda always laugh at the USA centric nature of comments about hurricanes "heading away from the us" when they are really heading right towards our 20 sq mile home, 700 miles off Cape Hatteras in the middle of the Atlantic. Bermuda is like a magnet for hurricanes and hardly a season goes by that we don't have a hurricane within 100nm of the island. Take a look at the Wikipedia page documenting hurricanes that have approached Bermuda.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bermuda_hurricanes
Perhaps the most interesting hurricane was the first recorded hurricane in 1609 that may have changed the course of US history. As Wikipedia tells it:
"July 24, 1609 – A hurricane sets the stage for the British colonization of Bermuda when a ship bound for Jamestown, Virginia, is caught in the storm and forced to steer aground. When a fleet of Virginia Company ships tasked with resupplying the failing Jamestown colony encounters the hurricane, the flagship, Sea Venture, becomes separated from the other vessels and begins to take on water. The increasingly waterlogged Sea Venture battles the rough seas until July 28, when, just as the crew becomes resigned to their fate, Admiral Sir George Somers spots the uninhabited rocky shores of Bermuda. To prevent the ship from sinking, Somers deliberately drives her onto the reefs about a half mile off the eastern coast. Using the ship's longboat, all 150 settlers, as well as the crew, make it safely ashore.[10] The so-called "Isle of Devils" proves far more hospitable than initially feared, with abundant food and resources. Two new ships, the Deliverance and the Patience, are constructed, and nearly all of the Sea Venture's original occupants set sail for Jamestown. The Virginia Company administers the islands until the formation of the Somers Isles Company in 1615.[11] The tale of the Sea Venture inspired William Shakespeare to write The Tempest, and the coat of arms of Bermuda features a prominent representation of the shipwreck.[10]"
What they dont say is that the Deliverance and Patience resupplied the struggling and starving community in Jamestown allowing it to survive and ultimately thrive. Contrary to what the French believe, Bermuda is really America's oldest friend by a long shot. By the way all of the rest of the ships in Admiral Somers fleet were lost at sea in the storm.
So please think of us when hurricanes steer away from the US mainland!
"Getting ready to paddle out for a few waves here at Huguenot Park across the St Johns River from Mayport Naval Station. Going to have good waves all week from this the Earl and Fiona. It's grand to be 70, retired and still chasing waves. Cowabunga!"
I grew up in Atlantic Beach. I was never a surfer, though.
By the way Hurricane Earl will be a Category 3 storm when it steams by us in the early morning on Friday. Yesterday it was forecast to be 120 nm from the island, last night that was reduced to 105 nm, this morning the forecast was 84 nm. Its a fast moving hurricane and even a minor deviation on its course could result in a direct hit.
In addition to Danielle and Earl there is another system off Africa which shows great promise of becoming a tropical storm and another tropical wave is also coming off the coast of Africa. Things are getting active in the Atlantic.
"My Name is Earl"
GrapeApe said...
Yet one more prediction of higher hurricane occurrence has run smack into the brick wall of evidence.
9/7/22, 8:46 AM
NOAA has not backed down from their claim, yet. I'm sure they will just let that claim fade way....
As usual, the climate zealots are full of shite.
Andrew said...
"Hurricane Earl" doesn't sound threatening enough. Whoever names the hurricanes needs to up their game if we are all supposed to be afraid of climate change.
I know, right?
Like hurricane Vader.or hurricane Stalin.
The thing about hurricanes like Danielle and Earl that form, live, and die in the middle of the ocean without ever hitting land is that in pre-satellite days- we would likely neve know of their existence. Today we do And OMG! Hurricane numbers have increased since the 1920s! No, they haven't. We're simply able to see them now.
Even moreso typhoons in the much wider and larger Pacific.
Perhaps in my upcoming retirement i will start a service that rates weathermen on the accuracy of their forecasts. Perhaps a Pinocchio system like the so-called fact checkers.
As for the accuracy of environmental disaster forecasts, I'll have to get my grandchildren started on that analysis, given that I won't be around for the disasters said to come in 2100.
I had a great vacation in Bermuda when I was a teenager, it is a unique island and culture, and it is indeed a hurricane magnet.
So: Now Danielle is poised to whip the Portugal / Spain coast in a few days, followed likely by Earl giving a wallop to Spain/France/UK. And then Invest 95, a storm system presently off Africa, has a good chance of turning into an Atlantic hurricane that follows a similar path toward Europe a couple of weeks later. Should be a good test of the electrical grids in preparation for the winter of privation!
Well, I got slammed, dragged, thoroughly spooked and made it back to shore im one piece. When I paddling out the wave peaks were A framing and shifting around over the outer sand bars. The wave walls themselves were very lined up and throwing down the line of the sandbars. Im wayyy to old for big hurricane surf but I lie to myself every year and still paddle out. I caught a beast more from self defense than intent and got a great ride onto the inner bar where the wave squared off, threw out it's lip over my head and disconnected my inner rail surfboard fins from the wall of the wave. I free fell four or five feet and was slammed off the bottom and then pinned on the sandbar underwater as the wave rolled over me. The hydraulics sucked me up into the back of the wave and threw me over the falls into the sandbar again for good measure. When the wave tension lessened I found my board at the end of my leash and scrambled through the white water to the beach. One and done. Till tomorrow.
@Wilbur, Heartless Aztec and Temujin so far this is a nothing season as all "native" (folks who resided in FL 20+years) Floridians know. Still, one never knows since Wilma hit at the end of October so naturally Floridians of slightly above average IQ always keep bottle water, batteries, canned food etc on hand to avoid the rush. For those who are fortunate enough to have hurricane impact glass there isn't much to do beside removing backyard items that will be a wind blown hazard. Making sure your roof is in good condition is also good and beyond that there really isn't much you can do. Better a hurricane than an earthquake.
The longtime leader in this field, William Gray at Colorado State (sadly deceased) spoke at many conferences and burnt one term into my head; 'multidecadal oscillation'. Meaning that storm frequency increased and decreased in a predictable wave over 20-year periods. He did not have a high opinion of global warming enthusiasts or their self-serving, flawed climate models.
walk don't run @ 9:34: thanks for the history on Jamestown, Bermuda, and "The Tempest." Very cool! Stay safe as these storms blow through...
11 months to the day after Ida, we moved back into my flood damage repaired home.
No storms is a blessing.
I think hurricanes have become a fetish. Of course if you are a weather geek or a TV announcer with the sexy satellite shots of Death Star Storms, the fetish makes sense. And the networks are hooked on the footage of brave news crews in Sou'westers struggling against a heavy breeze with water over their shoes. And the politicians love to show up afterward with their FEMA checkbooks.
But is it useful and healthy to fetishize them? It obscures their vital function in the Earth's weather budget. Think of how many teraJoules of heat are transported and dissipated by this mechanism. Destructive as hurricanes can be (when they come ashore or ambush ocean shipping) they are essential. We might do better if we got a little less frantic over them.
Because this is not about us. We're just disaster addicts because it puts us in the center of the frame.
Whatever happened to La Niña and El Niño?
Did they… transition?
Lots of hurricanes is a sign of climate change.
Almost no hurricanes is a sign of climate change.
The same number of hurricane is a sign of climate change.
Tautologies are fun!
Didn't a hurricane damage story by Roger Pielke Jr in 538 get Nate Silver to fire him?
I don't think 538 has made a good prediction since then.
Heat waves: Climate change
Light early hurricane season: Aberration
Maybe we can let go of the idea that somehow we control the climate and instead focus on enhancing our ability to affect the climate.
If we hadn't focused on reversing progress for the past 30 years, I'd bet similar energies put into climate control would have yielded really meaningful advancements in elimination of drought, mitigation of heat waves, reducing of cold snaps, and mitigation of tornadoes/hurricances/cyclones....
In other words: We would have advanced humankind.
Heat waves: Climate change
Light early hurricane season: Aberration
Maybe we can let go of the idea that somehow we control the climate and instead focus on enhancing our ability to affect the climate.
If we hadn't focused on reversing progress for the past 30 years, I'd bet similar energies put into climate control would have yielded really meaningful advancements in elimination of drought, mitigation of heat waves, reducing of cold snaps, and mitigation of tornadoes/hurricances/cyclones....
In other words: We would have advanced humankind.
Heat waves: Climate change
Light early hurricane season: Aberration
Maybe we can let go of the idea that somehow we control the climate and instead focus on enhancing our ability to affect the climate.
If we hadn't focused on reversing progress for the past 30 years, I'd bet similar energies put into climate control would have yielded really meaningful advancements in elimination of drought, mitigation of heat waves, reducing of cold snaps, and mitigation of tornadoes/hurricances/cyclones....
In other words: We would have advanced humankind.
Heat waves: Climate change
Light early hurricane season: Aberration
Maybe we can let go of the idea that somehow we control the climate and instead focus on enhancing our ability to affect the climate.
If we hadn't focused on reversing progress for the past 30 years, I'd bet similar energies put into climate control would have yielded really meaningful advancements in elimination of drought, mitigation of heat waves, reducing of cold snaps, and mitigation of tornadoes/hurricances/cyclones....
In other words: We would have advanced humankind.
@Rusty,
"Hurricane Stalin" is a fantastic idea.
"Hurricane Hitler" should be next. Then we can work our way thru the dictators. "Hurricane Mao," etc. To appease the leftists, we'll include "Hurricane Pinochet" and "Hurricane Franco."
Once we run out of dictators, we can pick other villains from history. "Hurricane Bill Cosby," for example.
@Rusty,
"Hurricane Stalin" is a fantastic idea.
"Hurricane Hitler" should be next. Then we can work our way thru the dictators. "Hurricane Mao," etc. To appease the leftists, we'll include "Hurricane Pinochet" and "Hurricane Franco."
Once we run out of dictators, we can pick other villains from history. "Hurricane Bill Cosby," for example.
I grew up and have lived on the gulf coast for almost my entire life. I’ve been through Camille, no power for 2 weeks, Frederic, no power for 3 weeks, and Ivan, only no power for 8 days. After Ivan, I decided to get a whole house generator, and the day before Katrina hit the coast it was finally installed. My power was out about a day and a half. In the 17 years since, I don’t think it’s run continuously more than a day, lots of shorter outages from thunderstorms or drunks hitting power poles. For $17k it has been the best hurricane repellent ever. It started giving trouble last year, and it being nearly 20 years old and with parts and service getting more difficult, I replaced it with a new one last week. Hopefully 17 more years of repelling hurricanes.
Still, given that history, you can imagine many people around here are unenthusiastic about the push for EVs. Standard hurricane prep, assuming you’re not evacuating, is fill all the vehicles and if you have a place you can safely store it, a couple of 5gal gas cans, more if you plan to use a gasoline powered portable generator. My generator is natural gas, so as long as the gas company doesn’t get blown away it will run as long as needed, you just don’t want to see the next gas bill. If you live in an area where you may have to evacuate, the whole EV thing is really going to suck. Thousands of cars in the road, limited range, few public chargers, slow charge times, no thanks.
OMG! Global warming will kill us all ! Except those of us in Arizona.
Lem Ozuna from the Braves said...
Whatever happened to La Niña and El Niño?
Did they… transition?
***************
Yes, as they often do. But they occur in the Pacific.
Right now, the 3rd year of La Nina is producing COOLER ocean waters near the Indian sub-continet, causing normal monsoon winds to shift, producing record (but not unprecedented) floods in Pakistan.
But the flooding, you see, is still a result of "global" WARMING. Because reasons.
A theory that explains everything, but predicts nothing, isn't science---it's superstitious ju-ju.
Anthropogenic in the conventional environmental model a la natural, recurring ozone "holes" at the poles, minority of a minority radiative effect lost in thermal translation, etc.
"If you live in an area where you may have to evacuate, the whole EV thing is really going to suck. Thousands of cars in the road, limited range, few public chargers, slow charge times, no thanks."
It's going to be impossible. Fortunately, once we've banished fossil fuels there will be no more hurricanes.
Humans are really terrible at predicting the weather.
Bring back ladies names...
Hurricane Stalin - why not Hurricane Joe? Kill two birds with one storm.
The real problem this summer in the U.S. has not been hurricanes and tropical storms, it has been drought and deluges, sometimes in the same place, as occurred in Dallas. Numerous places have had storms dump several inches of rain on them at once, which is common enough if you get hit by a tropical storm or worse, but less so otherwise. My own theory is that the weird rainfall events may have something to do with the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption back on January 15th, which blew unprecedented amounts of water into the stratosphere. What goes up, must come down eventually.
@Cuban Bob, been here since '86. A great move for me, from central Illinois. I've enjoyed living here.
17 years ago I inherited a little money from an uncle and invested a lot of it into impact windows, replacing every window in the house. But if a storm is on the way, I still put up the metal panels over them. Those windows are impact-resistant, not breakproof. And if I have them (the panels) - why not use them?
We lived in south Florida (Ft. Lauderdale) for 5-6 years and went through a lot of hurricane threats and a few actual hurricanes. We met one elderly woman who as a child had experienced the 1926 "Great Miami Hurricane". Her brothers were headed for the beach on a beautiful day when Daddy looked at the barometer and said, There's a storm heading here. Stay home. That hurricane caused tremendous damage and loss of life.
In those early days the problem was that there was too little reporting of the storm threats, but while we lived there, there were a lot more reported threats than actual storms. So we put up the hurricane shutters and filled our gas tanks if we had to escape. And it was hard to relax.
Or you could read The Grapes of Wrath about a real environmental disaster.
"Hurricane Earl" doesn't sound threatening enough. Whoever names the hurricanes needs to up their game if we are all supposed to be afraid of climate change."
That's easy. Hurricane Trump.
Heartless Aztec said...
Dude! You are a rock star! At 70 I get to walk the dog a couple of miles a day and shoot clays on the weekend.
There's been a decided lack of tornados this year. Did Dr. Mann predict this?
The real bad hurricane named, "hurricane go f*ck yourself"
The original definition of Global Warming was "an alarming increase in global average temperatures". They even had a graph showing a sudden upturn in temperatures and it was called the "Hockey Stick Graph" because of the angled upturn. It's never happened. The earth is gradually warming between Ice Ages until it starts to decline as we approach another Ice Age. Nothing has changed. The "alarming increase" has never happened so by definition the whole "Global Warming" aka "Climate Change" schtick is bogus.
Hurricanes are not that bad. It’s the typhoons we need to fear.
Down here in the hurricane zone, we only care about the ones that make landfall.
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