That's the headline at the London Times, asking precisely the question I had. I could not think of any answer. It seems there's nothing Putin can do but move forward into his calamity. Even if he wants out, there's no way out.
This piece is by Mark Galeotti, an honorary professor at University College London School of Slavonic and East European Studies and the author of "The Weaponisation of Everything."
How does he get out of this mess? He probably cannot: there are several paths he could take, but they all lead to the same dead end....
Many are opportunists who would throw Putin under a metro train if they felt it was in their interests and was safe to do, but so long as he controls the Federal Security Service (FSB), any such conspiracy would be nipped in the bud — and everyone knows that. Perhaps the only institution that could oust Putin would be the army.... Any move by the military would be a bloody and contested affair. There are no indications to suggest that Putin is vulnerable....
Putin’s assumption is presumably that once he has Ukraine in his grasp he will be able to negotiate a new relationship with the West from a position of strength. Yet according to a foreign policy specialist working for a Russian think tank, “no one in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the expert community shares that belief”....
The passion and venom in Putin’s recent public statements on Ukraine demonstrate that this is a personal crusade, not a mere geopolitical gambit.... This war has never been about territory, though, but Russia’s status as a great power — and Putin’s status as a great ruler. To him, a great power takes what it feels it deserves, it does not haggle for it. So Putin cannot back down....
Most Russians will, as in the Brezhnev era, retreat into sullen disaffection, and those who can, will leave. For the Kremlin, this will be good enough: authoritarian regimes tend to rely on fearful apathy more than genuine enthusiasm....
Just as Russian soldiers are proving often unwilling to fight Ukrainians, the security forces may tire of being stormtroopers of the Kremlin. It may sound trivial, but I remember a riot policeman in the final days of the Soviet Union saying he was thinking of handing in his badge because “none of the girls want to date an Omon”....
पोस्ट्स
९४ टिप्पण्या:
Send half a dozen US woke bureaucrats to
poison things. It will take about six weeks…
I wonder if he badly miscalculated the American press. Probably saw Tucker Carlson and thought they would kinda support him.
But no. Some of us can understand the terrible mistakes of American and European politics that led to this. But support invading another country, no.
Were I him, I would finish clearing out the eastern oblasts, capture and execute the neo-Nazis battalions found there on some pretext. They are a large chunk of Ukraine's army, and trapped on that side of the Dnieper River - and probably the worst of the worst in the army, the ones who have been actively oppressing Donbass. And declare victory. See if governments in Europe (Macron?) will let him make a deal to withdraw without actually conquering Kiev. Perhaps they'd do it if Zelensky remains in power, a hero of course. He could declare victory too. He might be relieved that a lot of his dangerous opposition in the eastern areas had been eliminated.
But executing captured soldiers is a problem in our day and age, even if no one will miss them.
Does Putin want out? That's a question too.
From the beginning Joe "minor incursion" Biden signaled he was pretty much resigned to Putin taking contested provinces of eastern Ukraine.
What if Putin reverted to that? Wouldn't the west take that outcome in a heartbeat?
Is Putin capable of face-saving acts? Probably not. Maybe his best answer is to reach a certain stopping point and declare victory.
but so long as (Putin) controls the Federal Security Service (FSB), any such conspiracy (to oust him) would be nipped in the bud — and everyone knows that.
Who watches the watchers?
Perhaps the only institution that could oust Putin would be the army.... Any move by the military would be a bloody and contested affair. There are no indications to suggest that Putin is vulnerable....
Nobody ever is, until they are.
Remember how we all thought the USSR would last forever, and the only way to dislodge it would be a war that would kill millions, maybe hundreds of millions? That's the way it was every single day...until suddenly it wasn't.
don't worry about all this Ukraine stuff..
Once Putin gets far enough into a corner, and launches Nukes; no one will remember WHY it all started
This is a nightmare of all our making. Let's say Putin is ousted. At best you end up with a strongman running the show, at worst the oligarchs, each jockeying for power, and no matter which course the guy at the top knows that he's vulnerable to being ousted if he displeases his western masters. And the Russian people will know it as well.
As for the West, they aren't just blowing up the village in order to save it, they're burning down the whole damn jungle. They've demonstrated over the past six months just how far they'll go against anyone who defies them, including stripping their enemies of access to financial institutions and punishing citizens of a country for the misdeeds of their leaders. The irony is that they're destroying the very institutions necessary to support the globalism which they so love. Without international financial networks global commerce becomes more difficult. By punishing everyday Russians, you undermine the effort to transform countries into mere administrative units separate from the people residing in them.
"...authoritarian (sic) regimes tend to rely on fearful apathy more than genuine enthusiasm...."
Dang! Talk about hitting close to home.
One doesn’t get to create this much death and chaos then somehow retreat shamelessly. Even if he gains some small piece of Ukraine temporarily, he is done. What other world leaders would recognize him as the Russian leader, especially now that his country is suffocating under financial sanctions? He would have nothing to offer, and no one would want to deal with him.
I can't help thinking of the Iraq war. Sure, Bush and his people believed Saddam had "weapons of mass destruction" but their beef was deeper. Saddam was a bad man, bad to his people and constantly making trouble for the United States. He persistently dissed the U.S. and no amount of outside pressure would make him change.
Since 2014, the Ukrainian government had persistently dissed Russia, closing down Russian language publications and requiring schooling in Ukrainian, even in areas where most people spoke Russian and in violation of previous agreements with the Russian government.
That doesn't make the war right, but it goes some way to explaining why Putin is being "unreasonable".
There is an interesting piece at Chicago Boyz about the Russian convoy that is stuck in a 40 mile traffic jam. The Ukrainians flooded the surrounding areas and the Russians cheap Chinese tires make it impossible for the convoy to navigate. Putins generals seem to be as competent as out current military leaders.
However, I take war reporting with a grain of salt because the first casualty in war is the truth.
How did we stop being in Vietnam? How did we stop being in Afghanistan? Iraq?
Oh, we let it bleed us dry till we had enough and just quit... That happened to Russia to in Afghanistan... Granted Afghanistan was a f*ckup withdrawal that may have emboldened Putin to get into the Ukraine...
Putin didn't calculate the Western powers to have some balls (except Biden of course.) He was hoping they would all be Bidens.
Sooner or later he will 'declare victory' and leave. Probably later so to save face.
After all is said and done, The United States emerges weaker, with waning world influence. That is, if things go relatively well.
Is NATO willing to risk nuclear holocaust over Poland?
Will the American ruling class utter a negative word about Xi if he takes Taiwan--risking "Losing Chinese markets" let alone war?
Yea, best case scenario is Russia takes out Zelensky, installs a puppet, then withdraws. Then the countries of the world can pick their new team. and America can get back to destroying itself from within without all these distractions.
I think this statement from this article is ludicrous: "This war has never been about territory, though, but Russia’s status as a great power -- and Putin’s status as a great ruler."
This is ALL about territory, and the personalizing focus on Putin is way off base. Sure, he's a bad guy. And the West is now whipping people into a frenzy about him -- and the entire Russian people as well. (Our equivalent of "liberty cabbage" is pouring Vodka down the sink.) But if we are up against Hitler II -- and Putin is "he who is to be destroyed" at all costs -- explain to me please why Biden is at this very minute allowing a Putin-chosen RUSSIAN to oversee our talks with Iran in an effort to appease that ally of Putin even more abjectly than Obama did.
I sense a mess of incoherence finding temporary release from its own incoherence in this infatuation with Putin the person. There are clashes of interest here, and if we are not careful, we will be back to Sarajevo 1914 all over again.
Does Putin want out? That's a question too.
+1
The irony is that they're destroying the very institutions necessary to support the globalism which they so love
Certainly makes clear, the need for National Banks as opposed to International Banks
So many politicians believe in the sunk cost fallacy that careless casual observers might come to think it's rational to do so.
When a politician wants to keep doing something that they know is stupid, they say "We need to preserve our credibility"; and when they want to avoid doing something they know is right, they say "It would be destabilizing".
I agree it is about territory. Putin wants a buffer zone between NATO and Russia. Maybe some strong western leader (not Biden) can engineer a deal to make Ukraine neutral and out of NATO in return for ending the invasion. Maybe give him the eastern provinces but he may have burned that bridge by attacking Karkiv, a Russian speaking city.
Biden’s press secretary likes to wear her authentic Russian fur hat (in pink of course) with the cute little hammer and sickle on it and her boss clearly mumbled that a minor incursion was coo, but Tucker asking why NATO kept playing footsie with Ukraine membership “encouraged” Putin? The cognitive dissonance required to follow lefty pretzel logic is greater than I can muster.
Maybe some strong western leader (not Biden) can engineer a deal to make Ukraine neutral and out of NATO
Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
Major wars have often been started by small things that get out of control. World leaders are among the least cognitively functioning of all people.
Anyone asking Biden why he stopped our energy program, but is working to buy more from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and now Iran? Anyone ask Biden why his (Obama's) team is restarting the giveaway/negotiations with Iran to drop sanctions and allow them both money and time to work in their nuclear program while they invest heavily in our destruction?
Putin is a huge worry. I think Biden/Obama are larger worries to me. We cannot control Putin. We should be able to control ourselves.
The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.
-- Winston Churchill
There is a third way that the West can pursue - using Afghanistan as a template. Make the military cost of the invasion unacceptable by arming the Ukrainians to the teeth with man capable weapons. Make the body bags fill with Russian conscripts and you will wear them down.
It’s not sexy. It’s not quick. But it worked on the Russians and on the US in our “adventures”
"Putin’s assumption is presumably that once he has Ukraine in his grasp he will be able to negotiate a new relationship with the West from a position of strength. Yet according to a foreign policy specialist working for a Russian think tank, “no one in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the expert community shares that belief”...."
Putin is right. Given that the democrats have thrown away US energy independence, we don't have a choice but to reengage with Russia.
Putin was already in this trap before he invaded Ukraine. He's trapped by historical and geopolitical forces beyond his control.
Consider for a moment this may be about Putin the nationalist vs the forces of globalism in the west. That it may be about the west orchestrating regime change in Russia using Ukraine.
There is a lot of Putin mind-reading in the press these days about how he wants to essentially make Russia great again. Perhaps, but there are also many practical reasons for Putin's behavior.
Like any politician, Putin needs support to stay in power, support from the rich oligarchs, support within the military and the security services and support from the people. If Putin seems weak and ineffective to his support base because he let Ukraine become a NATO ally and an EU member, his support would be seriously eroded. He would probably be replaced.
There are a lot of important economic considerations for Russia in Ukraine, not the least of which is the gas pipelines that are Russia's economic jugular vein. If he let the west take control of them, he would lose a lot of support he cannot afford to lose.
Ukraine joining NATO has long been a bright red line for Russia. They have made it clear it is a hill Russia will die on. The west called Putin's bluff by doubling down on their stated intentions to bring Ukraine into NATO. Putin decided to play a weak hand rather than fold. After all, he got away with taking Crimea and some of eastern Ukraine already.
If the western alliance agreed today that Ukraine will never be a NATO member, Putin would probably declare victory and withdraw. Why is there no mention of this option when people are trying to think of "any answer"? Perhaps because Putin extracting himself from this nightmare is not the desired result. It seems the west is willing sacrifice Ukraine to achieve their goal of regime change in Russia.
authoritarian regimes tend to rely on fearful apathy more than genuine enthusiasm....
Go fuck yourself! I love ❤️ my booster shot! 🥰
"Even if he wants out, there's no way out."
It was stupid to leave an enemy with as much power over world affairs, military, and economic, without an out. I think that five years of a constant firehose of anti-Putin propaganda, and the purge of our military of people who would not go along with it, has made it impossible for our leaders to understand what he wants, and thus to see a way out of this. What is our way out if Putin has no way out? Hope for an assassination from within is no plan. Why would a post Putin Russia see our finance and tech infrastructure, as well as the dollar as the reserve currency, as anything other than extensions of US military power? The old order has been completely destroyed in a panic, and the new order may not be to our liking. Impoverishing Germany worked out great, didn't it.
I guess that the above makes me a "Putin fanboi." I spend time in the summer in bear country, you know what I do there? I take steps to avoid trouble with the bears in the woods, and I don't blame the bear for being a bear if I screw up, the way Biden did, if something goes wrong.
"essentially make Russia great again. "
That's just psy-ops to fix Putin and Trump together in people's minds.
That's just psy-ops to fix Putin and Trump together in people's minds.
Exactly.
Just more mindreading and false assumptions. Putin was ALREADY being sanctioned. He was ALREADY being disrepected by the West. He just decided to be hung for Sheep as for a lamb.
He'd been backed into a corner by NATO expansion and the Ukrainian refusal to negotiate so he took the military option. Who knows how this will play out. One thing is certain, crimea and breakaway republics are never going back to the Ukraine. Nor is the Ukraine ever going to be part of NATO. Russia - not just Putin - has thrown down that marker and it will never be picked up again.
And we need the Russian's help in the middle east. Europe needs their oil and Natural Gas. Throwing a hissy fit over the Ukraine isn't making life better for anyone. So, all this hatred and talk of Hitler is getting us nowhere. Everyone needs to stop fighting and start talking.
"I think that five years of a constant firehose of anti-Putin propaganda"
lolololol
Someone must not have grown up during the Cold War. The last five years are pretty tame compared with the rhetoric over the last 5 decades.
Make Vlad the greeter at Mar a Lago
It worked great on Howard, it even works on smart people, and I count Howard one, it's insidious. See how he has internalized what Hillary wanted him to believe?
Death or incarceration by his people is the only way Putin can be stopped.
I hope Britain is offering asylum in Kensington or some country estate. And really good security, maybe his own security. He could bring his money. Have a nice retirement. This is his best option, and he will see it as such fairly soon.
Putin extracts himself when Ukraine "agrees" to cede the portions of eastern and northern Ukraine that want to join Russia. Putin doesn't give a damn what the rest of the world thinks.
China is happy to have Russia occupy the West whilst it continues to grow economically and politically. If the world is going to be governed by a globalist vision, as many in the US desire, China prefers that vision be theirs.
And the EU is obviously declining. The EU is soft. The US may talk unity and NATO and blah, blah, blah, but we (this administration) avoid confronting aggressive despots. Our foreign policy is appeasement in the hopes of some vague world order in our image. And if uncorrected, the entire world will be at war within a decade.
General Michael Flynn's thoughts on this question here (published March 3, 2022):
https://www.westernjournal.com/exclusive-gen-flynn-can-end-ukraine-crisis-today/
He greatly misinterpreted the mood of this country, listening too much to Trump, Bannon, Carlson, etc., along with Russian apologists on the far left such as Univ Chicago prof. John Meshershiemer.
If needed, China like Russia will take resources from its people to continue its military expansion.
no ignoring geography, and history, the major battles in the caucasus were in the summer of '43, the germans advanced in the spring of that year, you would think that would be in the curriculum of the Frunze academy, which General Sukhovetsky was a part of,
Putin is using Western Sanctions as a way to reduce the influence of Western Tech and Financial institutions.
And Putin has huge influence through Russian exports of fertilizer for agriculture world wide.
Plus Russian gas and oil exports.
Plus the Iran Deal leverage.
And as other non western countries see Western Financial institutions weaponized to destroy Russias economy, from the seizures of reserve bank deposits, cutting off of banks, assets seizures, ending visa and Mastercard, internet censorship, etc. So many financial rubicons crossed. The West is destroying trust in their rule of law, to “get Putin”. Who wants this threat hanging over their heads? The petro dollar and us reserve currency status are being used as weaponized against Russia.
"He greatly misinterpreted the mood of this country, listening too much to Trump, Bannon, Carlson, etc., along with Russian apologists on the far left such as Univ Chicago prof. John Meshershiemer."
Or he misinterpreted the mood of the country by listening to Joe Biden, a person actually in power.
This war is two weeks old. Even Germany took longer than that to conquer France in 1940. I can only imagine these journalists complaining that Hitler had made a grave miscalculation because he was only halfway to Paris by this point.
https://twitter.com/billroggio/status/1499954583174590464
Bill ROggio is excellent on military issues. This is a very good thread
The West is destroying trust in their rule of law, to “get Putin”
... to get men, to get White men, to get White women, to get women, to get children, to normalize some, select lives matter... Yes, our liberal communities are first-order forcings of [catastrophic] [anthropogenic] climate change, especially the evolution and progress of low trust societies.
Blogger jim5301 said...
He greatly misinterpreted the mood of this country,
Which "elected" Biden and Harris. Neither of whom is competent and unable to conceal it.
jim5301 said...
He greatly misinterpreted the mood of this country, listening too much to Trump, Bannon, Carlson, etc., along with Russian apologists on the far left such as Univ Chicago prof. John Meshershiemer.
Over 60% of people in biased media polls that over sample democrats believe this war never would have happened under Trump.
The real percentage is higher than that. It is obvious Joe Biden and his policies made this war happen.
Democrats still demand we fund this war by importing Russian Oil.
It would take someone stupid enough to support Joe Biden to believe what Jim says above.
The best way out for Putin is the Praetorian Solution. It rid Rome of bad rulers and could actually calm things in Russia. A period of internal fighting over control of Russia would make it far less likely to be expansionist because such policies require the ability to command the people. Putin had enough of that command for Ukraine, but I doubt it for NATO countries given how poorly Ukraine has gone for Russia so far.
There is a historical parallel that bears upon the Ukraine situation.
The Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939, expecting a substantial welcoming population. However, the Finns patriotically united and, along with the weather, essentially stopped the huge, incompetent Soviet army attacking them on the ground. Stalin then said, in effect, "smash them", and the Soviet army reorganized and launched an unconstrained attack--bombing, artillery. The Finns soon surrendered, ceded 9% of their territory to the Soviets. (see Wikipedia on the Winter War)
There are, of course, parallels in Ukraine--expectation of a Russia sympathetic population, Russian military incompetence, a seeking of territory for Russia. Unlike 1939, the West is united in its sympathy for Ukraine but not enough to go to war. It can act financially and has, but can it hold that stance long enough.
It is time, however, for a Berlin-style airlift to carry medical supplies/food/fuel/(re)construction materials/electricity generators to areas of Ukraine under siege. Even the Russians would be reluctant to shoot down mercy airlifts.
Why we could even stop buying Russian oil, supplying billions to support their invasion.
Nah. It might screw up the surrender to Iran, which the Russians are managing for us.
Somebody sold Putin a bill of goods as to the readiness of his forces and his materiel. Id does not look like Putin will take Ukraine any time this decade. The much vaunted Russian technical excellence in hardware was a chimera. A Potemkin village. He could save himself by resigning and holding new elections.
Will he do that. No. The next logical move id to have his own people remove him. He's making serious inroads into the comfort of his kleptocracy.
Is the theme of the day something to do with ‘liberals talking past what they wish will happen’? What makes London Times think Putin wants to ‘extract’ himself?
…’Extract himself’ into Poland after he’s done, maybe…
...It is time, however, for a Berlin-style airlift to carry medical supplies/food/fuel/(re)construction materials/electricity generators to areas of Ukraine under siege. Even the Russians would be reluctant to shoot down mercy airlifts.
I respectfully disagree - maybe they would be, maybe not. But the Ukrainians would not have a problem if some were shot down, hoping to get the US/NATO drawn into a shooting war. The temptation is too great - don't allow any aircraft get anywhere near the border, let alone cross it. I wouldn't even recommend road supply across the border.
The Russians will get what they want from Ukraine, at a very high price, much higher than they expected.
The only thing that can stop them is for NATO to enact a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine. The Europeans will never do that.
The only way for the Russians to get out of Ukraine without a military victory is to depose Putin. Stranger things have happened.
The fact that Uncle Joe is back in Delaware and relatively uninvolved in this mess is a good thing. He would only make it worse.
Rusty said...
Somebody sold Putin a bill of goods as to the readiness of his forces and his materiel.
Yup.
I said a while ago that I think some generals are getting some polonium with their vodka.
I wonder if the ground is thawing out yet.
Anyone who still pimps the Hillary-made Trump+Russia BS - is in bed with Hillary.
True that.
"This war has never been about territory, though, but Russia’s status as a great power"
Yes, but being a great power means have some control over your region. It also means not having even a halfway hostile force next door.
"As for the West, they aren't just blowing up the village in order to save it, they're burning down the whole damn jungle."
It's an insane overreaction. We defend the "rule-based International order" by exploding it.
What's the way out we are pursuing, if any? We are not prepared to defend Ukraine yet we are trying to squeeze Putin to the max--for what?
Ukraine willing to discuss not joining NATO. I am not sure if Ukraine has completely burned its credibility or if Putin will see this as an off ramp. Next few hours will tell. It's interesting how much pain the country has taken in the interests of the weapons manufacturers that Vindman works for.
Zelensky made noise like that a week ago, but the US shut him down.
Browndog,
Is NATO willing to risk nuclear holocaust over Poland?
Are we back to "Why Die For Danzig?" already?
NATO has to defend Poland; the whole thing is a mutual-aid pact. Though the Baltic States are a likelier target. And Moldova (not in NATO) an even likelier one.
.
Consider this. Both China and India abstained from condemning Russia in that UN vote. What does this signal? Does Putin have more quiet global support than we know? Or do others see a strategic benefit to the US being drawn into a protracted conflict over Ukraine?
It's an insane overreaction. We defend the "rule-based International order" by exploding it.
What's the way out we are pursuing, if any? We are not prepared to defend Ukraine yet we are trying to squeeze Putin to the max--for what?
Vengeance. The end of the Cold War was supposed to be a victory for the globalist western elite. It was supposed to herald the rise of the international liberal order- vaguely progressive, technocratic, credentialed- with the global managerial class ascendent while nation-states were reduced to administrative districts. Instead, the whole endeavor is falling apart, and they're pissed because they can't stop it. They're not smart enough, nor have the experience or willingness to take risks and commit resources.
Putin’s assumption is presumably that once he has Ukraine in his grasp he will be able to negotiate a new relationship with the West from a position of strength. Yet according to a foreign policy specialist working for a Russian think tank, “no one in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the expert community shares that belief”....
The passion and venom in Putin’s recent public statements on Ukraine demonstrate that this is a personal crusade, not a mere geopolitical gambit.... This war has never been about territory, though, but Russia’s status as a great power — and Putin’s status as a great ruler. To him, a great power takes what it feels it deserves, it does not haggle for it. So Putin cannot back down....
What Putin doesn't grasp is that Ukrainian Partisans will be fighting Russia so long as it's there, and will kill any puppet government he tries to leave behind.
The Poles and others will be more than happy to back those partisans, and short of going to war with NATO Putin won't be able to do shit about it.
And if he tries to go to war with NATO, the Army WILL feel forced to take matters into their own hands.
Sebastian said...
"This war has never been about territory, though, but Russia’s status as a great power"
Yes, but being a great power means have some control over your region. It also means not having even a halfway hostile force next door.
The Putin suck-up steps forward.
Russia isn't a "great" anything, other than a great pile of shit.
There will ALWAYS be "hostile forces" next door to a "great power", because it will expand until it's blocked by them.
What actual threat did Ukraine, or NATO, pose to Russia?
None.
The only "threat" was to Putin's ego, and to his delusions that Russia should be able to bully everyone around them
"As for the West, they aren't just blowing up the village in order to save it, they're burning down the whole damn jungle."
It's an insane overreaction. We defend the "rule-based International order" by exploding it.
Nope.
We're telling Russia that if they seek to expand by force, they're going to be booted from the "international order" of civilized countries.
Because they're not in fact a civilized country
What's the way out we are pursuing, if any? We are not prepared to defend Ukraine yet we are trying to squeeze Putin to the max--for what?
Because he's our enemy, and we want to destroy him.
At least, he's the enemy of anyone who actually loves or values America.
What's your excuse?
If anything I have learned, is that things that are impossible are only impossible until they happen, and things that are inconceivable have the nasty habit of becoming reality. Things remain the same until they don't.
As for why Putin is doing this? It is the same reason why he invaded Ukraine previously and why he invaded Georgia and why he interferes in Kazakhstan and why Belarus is his puppet: he wants Russia to return to the days prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union. If he can do it, he will do it. Furthermore, he correctly identified Obama as weak and he furthermore correctly identified Biden as senile and surrounded by idiots, unlike Trump who for all his flaws has a set of balls and a better understanding of reality and deal making. What Putin misunderstood was his military's ability. It appears his core troops are pretty good but the rest of the army are poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly motivated conscripts who would really like to be doing something else, all led by corrupt yes-men. It also appears he may have believed that the Ukrainian people would, for some reason, welcome him. I am not sure if he really believed that or if it is propaganda, but either way that did not remotely materialize.
I have a sense that COVID broke Putin. The ridiculous meetings with generals at the other end of a very long table just screams medical paranoia. He may be stuck in his own bubble at the moment and has a very weak grasp on the actual situation. His claim of de-Nazification is so absurd that it is only something that could be claimed by someone who believes his own nonsense, or he thinks his people will actually believe it. (The latter is not out of the question.)
What's his exit strategy? Beats me. A lot of this depends on what happens going forward. I mean, he could win. He still has more troops and better equipment, albeit you would be hard pressed to believe that given the results so far. The problem is if he wins he then has to occupy the country as otherwise any puppet he puts on the throne is going to be overthrown. He cannot afford that, even in the best of circumstances. If he continues the 40 mile traffic jam to nowhere, he could lose. I don't think he ever considering losing to be an option, and if he loses then he's been severely weakened at home. The main problem is I do not know how much of his irregular behavior is caused by propagandist bluster and how much is general instability. Trying to predict the actions of someone who has a screw loose is hard.
Basically, Putin will remain in power until the institutions that support him no longer do, the same as with any king or emperor or president. He has put his reputation on the line and if he fails badly there are going to be plenty of people who think regime change would be in their best interest.
Maynard said...
The Russians will get what they want from Ukraine, at a very high price, much higher than they expected.
The only thing that can stop them is for NATO to enact a no-fly zone over all of Ukraine. The Europeans will never do that.
Wrong.
It needs no no-fly zone. All it needs is Ukrainian partisans knowing they can train and recover, and be rearmed, in the countries to teh West of Ukraine.
And that it will continue to happen until Russia gets out, as defeated losers.
This is only going to end with Putin dead. And his successor willing to accept that Russia no longer gets to rule any of its neighbors to the west
Now, let's be clear:
Neither Biden* nor any other Democrats are serious about this. Because if they were, they'd support
1: Expanding nuclear power in the US
2: Building and running teh Keystone II pipeline
3: Massive increases in US oil production. IOW, pro-fracking and pro drilling on Federal lands
We should always hold the Democrats feet to the fire about their lack of seriousness
But Putin is America's enemy, and always will be
Yes, say "nice doggie" while looking for the rock. But always remember there's nothing nice about him
FleetUSA said...
Is Putin capable of face-saving acts? Probably not. Maybe his best answer is to reach a certain stopping point and declare victory.
What makes you think the Ukrainians will accept that?
War's a democracy, teh enemy gets a vote. So long as teh Ukrainians are willing to fight, Putin can declare whatever he wants, but it won't matter.
There's lots of Ukrainians with dead family members. You think they won't be willing to go wherever the Russian troops are in Ukraine, and try to kill them?
Mr Wibble said...
This is a nightmare of all our making.
Oh bullshit, you pathetic loser.
This is a nightmare of Putin's making. Stop being so deluded into thinking your'e the only ones who matter
Let's say Putin is ousted. At best you end up with a strongman running the show, at worst the oligarchs, each jockeying for power, and no matter which course the guy at the top knows that he's vulnerable to being ousted if he displeases his western masters. And the Russian people will know it as well.
Bzzt.
The Russian people will know that if a lunatic at the top decides to go after the West, they will pay.
That's a good thing for them to know.
So will the oligarchs, who are in the main just corrupt pieces of shit who want to enjoy their wealth, not brain damaged lunatics who want to reconstitute the USSR or "Greater Russia"
As for the West, they aren't just blowing up the village in order to save it, they're burning down the whole damn jungle.
Gosh, yes! Telling countries "you have to follow civilized rules if you want to be part of civilization" is just SO "out of bounds"!
/sarc
They've demonstrated over the past six months just how far they'll go against anyone who defies them, including stripping their enemies of access to financial institutions and punishing citizens of a country for the misdeeds of their leaders.
In the entirety of human history, we have always harmed the people of a country for the misdeeds of their leaders.
It's one of the incentives to get rid of misdeedful leaders.
And could you please explain what kind of lunatic you are, that you want to elevate Putin to moral equivalence with teh Canadian truckers?
It is bad to shoot innocent people.
it is not bad to shoot someone who's trying to commit rape or murder.
Linking the two together marks you as the insane one.
And I will note that the Canadian Senate was NOT willing to go along with Trudeau's dictatorship
Would I be happy for Trudeau and Putin to both get 9mm retirement packages? oh yes, I would
But the fact that power was misused in Canada does not mean it's being misused against Putin and Russia
Roger Sweeny said...
I can't help thinking of the Iraq war. Sure, Bush and his people believed Saddam had "weapons of mass destruction" but their beef was deeper. Saddam was a bad man, bad to his people and constantly making trouble for the United States. He persistently dissed the U.S. and no amount of outside pressure would make him change.
Since 2014, the Ukrainian government had persistently dissed Russia, closing down Russian language publications and requiring schooling in Ukrainian, even in areas where most people spoke Russian and in violation of previous agreements with the Russian government.
That doesn't make the war right, but it goes some way to explaining why Putin is being "unreasonable".
Are you fucking nuts?
Saddam Hussien had already used WMD in war. Saddam was publicly and aggressively trying to get more WMDs.
9/11 established that State sponsors of terrorism could be existential threats to the US, and Saddam's Iraq was a State sponsor of terrorism.
Finally, Gulf War I was stopped by a truce, whose agreements required Iraq to publicly give up all WMDs. Claiming you have WMDs, which Iraq2 was doing, violated taht agreement, and thus made it legitimate to resume the war.
Ukraine, OTOH, was "dissing" Russia and Putin. So fucking what! They deserve to be dissed!
Ukraine was trying to create a nation with one national language. Oh the horror!
Gee, Russia invades and annexes regions of Ukraine on teh grounds that there's a lot of Russia speakers in those areas, and Ukraine is now horrible for trying to non-violently get rid of Russian speakers?
What the fuck is wrong with you?
Which part of Russia annexing the Crimea was NOT in violation of previous agreements?
Putin wasn't threatening Ukraine because they posed an actual threat, at least not to anything other than his ego
Putin was threatening, a nd now attacking, Ukraine because he's pissed that the USSR lost its empire, and he wants to enslave everyone he can get back under his control
He, and his action, have no legitimacy
Even if Putin is our creation in part, that doesn't mean we side with him. The point about the West's past mistakes are how do we respond now to avoid compounding the problem. One thing Putin has done was to solidify NATO after years of trying to soften the alliance.
In any event, I'm sure none of us really knows whats going on. If something real happens, there won't be debating.
His way out is to win.
In 1941, because of their war in China, Japan was sanctioned economically to the point they were running out of oil and would soon lose the ability to fight.
What did they do?
Greg The Class Traitor..... is en fuego!
NotWhoIUsedtoBe said...
"His way out is to win."
But he can't win. The whole invasion was premised on a two day schedule. He had to take all his objectives in two days. He hasn't taken any of them. This IS his A game. That IS the best equipment he has to put in battle. Everything from now on is to save face and it's costing him upwards of twenty billions a day to do it. He has no way short of nukes to change the momentum. I stand by my earlier statement.
NotWhoIUsedtoBe said...
His way out is to win.
In 1941, because of their war in China, Japan was sanctioned economically to the point they were running out of oil and would soon lose the ability to fight.
What did they do?
Putin was told a rosy story by his generals. That much is obvious.
But he never should have thought he could invade a country of 41 million people with an army of ~130,000.
He will pay a price for that. He will end up becoming a Chinese Satellite.
Now Russia and China are tied at the hip economically. Russia is using China's Union credit/banking system because they were cut off financially to all services.
We just handed Russia and all of it's resources to China on a silver platter.
The people that supported this Corporate/Government alliance to shut Russia out and the constant banging of war drums are just fantastically stupid people.
The whole invasion was premised on a two day schedule. He had to take all his objectives in two days.
Why do you say that?
Putin & Russia have already lost. He can't go 3 months, or even 2.
His encirclement of Kyiv just brings Russian forces into convenient range of well concealed Javelin missiles.
Putin just handed the Russian credit card system to the Chinese. Imagine that! Think of the raw intel of every credit card transaction of every Russian. Millions of new Chinese Credit Cards ... I'm sure no one will take advantage of that ... on either side.
Russia's only tool is artillery & unguided bombs, destroying a city block at a time, as they've used most of their precision weapons. A month of those pictures; crying mothers, bandaged babies, etc, & even China won't be able to hang on.
Putin is toast.
How bad he burns the rest of the world is anybodies guess.
There are billions of people in the world, and most of the people who are neither American nor Russian dislike America more than Russia.
And you know what? In Russia, they remember that 20 million civilians were killed the last time Russia messed up and did not keep an adversary from messing with them.
In America, they remember Woodstock and how Alan Alda got all those girls to fall in love with him by playing a doctor on M*A*S*H*.
Stolen elections have meanings. When Biden stole the election (well not the old guy, but his minions), it was very bad news for Afghanis and Ukrainians.
Achilles said... He will pay a price for that. He will end up becoming a Chinese Satellite.
Now Russia and China are tied at the hip economically. Russia is using China's Union credit/banking system because they were cut off financially to all services.
We just handed Russia and all of it's resources to China on a silver platter.
The people that supported this Corporate/Government alliance to shut Russia out and the constant banging of war drums are just fantastically stupid people.
Anyone who thinks that Putin's Russia was not fundamentally our enemy is "fantastically stupid".
A month ago, it was clear that China was going to invade and conquer Taiwan some time in the next few years.
That's is now MUCH less likely.
China DESPERATELY needs to sell to the rest of the world. it also desperately need to buy from the rest of the world.
Some of that they can get from Russia. But not nearly enough.
Russia is our enemy. They're getting crushed. Even though we only have that pathetic loser Biden* in charge
The result of this is NOT going to be more countries wanting to pull the same kind of games taht Putin pulled
And that's a win for us
stephen cooper said...
There are billions of people in the world, and most of the people who are neither American nor Russian dislike America more than Russia.
The US is, and always has been, far less of a threat to them than Russia.
And they like US culture a LOT more than they like Russian culture.
So I believe your'e full of shit on that.
And you know what? In Russia, they remember that 20 million civilians were killed the last time Russia messed up and did not keep an adversary from messing with them.
In Russia, the remember that Stalin and his successors slaughtered and impoverished them.
They remember that Stalin cut a deal with Hitler, and then got screwed over. And got all of them screwed over.
I'd be shocked if more than 20% of hem give a shit about any sort of "Greater Russian Empire", or whatever delusions Putin's feeding on.
They hav no say, they get perpetually robbed by Putin and his cronies, and Putin routinly murders people like them for saying the wrong things.
No, they don't give a shit about Putin's dreams.
You don't impose 15 year sentences for "misinformation" when your'e convinced the people are on your side. Just like you don't censor "misinformation" when you think your side actually has the better arguments
Greg The Class Traitor said...
The result of this is NOT going to be more countries wanting to pull the same kind of games taht Putin pulled
And that's a win for us
The result of this is all of the giant corporations and western governments have aligned as a block to seize the assets of people opposed to their power. The globalist forces are acting in complete unison.
When they are done crushing Russia do you think they will stop crushing people? Do you even realize what kind of rubicons have been crossed here?
These are the same people that are freezing Canadian trucker bank accounts and practicing widespread censorship.
Are you sure this is a win for us?
I think you are wrong.
He could declare victory and pull out, in return negotiating an end to the sanctions.
Look out when Greg the Class Traitor becomes the adult in the room. The sad thing is that the Putin apologists don't even realize that they are repeating KGB talking point memos put out by troll farms, while it is obvious to everyone else.
The US Army and Marine Corps took three weeks to overthrow the government of Iraq in 2003. The US Army is more capable than the Russian Army, and the Iraqis were less capable than the Ukrainians. I remember story after story painting every small problem as evidence the Iraq invasion would fail.
No one, not even the Germans in 1941, could conquer Ukraine in a few days (the Wermacht took six months to do it.) It will take weeks or months. The intelligence estimates that Kyiv could fall in 48 hours were nuts. We couldn't do that, so why did they think the Russians could? What we should be worried about is the progress the Russians have made despite the low numbers of soldiers fighting the Ukrainians. That's not going to last. More units will engage the Ukrainian army, and more will be brought in. The Kyiv stalemate seems to be caused by logistic limitations because there aren't enough roads to support an attack. Once the Russians capture more supply routes, that will change.
If Russia takes a few months to win, that's still a win for them. It means more dead people, but they still win. The rational thing for the Ukrainian leadership to do is surrender once it's clear that victory is impossible. Otherwise, they can watch their cities reduced to rubble and millions of Ukrainians lose everything, if they aren't killed. With no foreign intervention other than military aid there's not much hope unless the Russian government cracks because of popular revolt. That seems unlikely as long as the regime can arrest thousands of people for criticizing the war. I hope that Putin is limited by popular opposition more than he appears to be and declares victory before the war gets worse. It would be great if he were overthrown but I can't count on that. Russian autocrats tend to stay in power despite terrible decisions.
Wars last more than a news cycle. The only way this war will end quickly is by the Ukrainian government surrendering some amount of sovereignty or territory. I'd love to be wrong, but the Russians have a long history of being terrible out the gate but winning anyway. Even the Finns didn't win in 1940. The Russians paid a high price, but the border is still where it was after the Winter War. The Finns survived, but they paid a permanent price in territory and sovereignty.
It's in our interest for the Ukrainians to fight as hard and as long as possible, but only if we use the time to prepare for the next round. Otherwise, all we are doing is enabling more people to die for no purpose. The Ukrainians have a different interest, which is ending the war with the best possible outcome for them. A war that goes on for months but leaves entire cities devastated and tens of thousands dead isn't much of a win, especially if they have to surrender anyway. If the Russians can't overthrow the government within what they consider a reasonable amount of time, they may settle for less as long as it can be portrayed as a victory.
I hope the Russians lose. However, I don't think optimism is justified after a week. Ukraine is still in a war with a much larger country, and is surrounded on three sides with no military allies. War is always chaotic and looks like a mess until someone wins.
If we want to effectively oppose Russia, that requires dealing with reality. Military force in Eastern Europe is necessary to deter them. Nuclear weapons are necessary to deter them. That means the US Army and US nukes in Eastern Europe in sufficient numbers to make a war unwinnable for Russia.
This could have been done already, but our President is terrible. We should have either acceded to Russian demands or sent enough soldiers to deter the Russian army. We did neither and now there's a war.
Let's go, Brandon.
Howard said...
Look out when Greg the Class Traitor becomes the adult in the room. The sad thing is that the Putin apologists don't even realize that they are repeating KGB talking point memos put out by troll farms, while it is obvious to everyone else.
Your false concern about Russia is a complete lie.
We could shut this war down instantly by letting Texas pump oil. But Joe Biden will let anyone in the world ship us oil but Texas.
Because Joe Biden wants this war and you want this war.
And after Visa and Mastercard are done with Russia you are going to turn them on your political opponents at home.
"There is a lot of Putin mind-reading in the press these days about how he wants to essentially make Russia great again. "
One doesn't have to read Putin's mind - all you have to do is read his public statements, speeches, and writings.
This is what baffles me about the anti-Semitic Mearsheimer and the flaming red Chomsky being of one accord that the West should underbus Ukraine because Russia sees itself as a "Great Power". They can easily read Putin's statements of his intents, compare them to reality (Russia is nowhere close to being a Great Power - it's a middling power with nukes, much like France and Pakistan) and see their analysis is full of shite - but they just live in some fantasy world reminiscent of the internationalists of Europe in 1913.
Achilles said...
Greg The Class Traitor said...
The result of this is NOT going to be more countries wanting to pull the same kind of games that Putin pulled
And that's a win for us
The result of this is all of the giant corporations and western governments have aligned as a block to seize the assets of people opposed to their power. The globalist forces are acting in complete unison.
And you think that letting Putin do the same thing in Ukraine is going to make us better off?
When they are done crushing Russia do you think they will stop crushing people? Do you even realize what kind of rubicons have been crossed here?
0 rubicons have been crossed WRT Ukraine. A bunch were crossed in Canada, and here with teh abuse of teh J6 defendants, social media deplatforming over "misinformation", etc.
If you think that doing it to Putin has any relevance to doing it to us, your'e wrong.
What you should be doing is pointing out what a scumbag Putin is, for acting like Trudeau, Zukerberg, and Garland.
But you're too busy blowing Putin to be able to make that argument, and if you did, no one would listen to you anyway, because your'e aligning yourself with a dictator who does all the things your'e claiming to care about.
These are the same people that are freezing Canadian trucker bank accounts and practicing widespread censorship.
Yes, they are.
So's Putin.
But you're backing him.
So clearly you don't find those tactics out of bounds.
What part fo Putin enslaving and / or slaughtering the Ukrainians do you find morally less objectionable than Twitter deplatforming people?
Hitler hated Stalin. Stalin hated Hitler. Both were right that the other was scum
This does not leads a sane person to excuse the crimes of either
Jon Burack said...
I think this statement from this article is ludicrous: "This war has never been about territory, though, but Russia’s status as a great power -- and Putin’s status as a great ruler."
This is ALL about territory, and the personalizing focus on Putin is way off base.
Wrong, and wrong.
Putin is the one driving this on the Russia side. He's driving this because he's still massively butt hurt that the USSR lost the Cold War and ceased to exist, that Russia no longer has an Empire, and that everyone now understands that Russia is just a third world shithole that has nuclear weapons
The other oligarchs just want to enjoy their wealth.
But if we are up against Hitler II -- and Putin is "he who is to be destroyed" at all costs -- explain to me please why Biden is at this very minute allowing a Putin-chosen RUSSIAN to oversee our talks with Iran in an effort to appease that ally of Putin even more abjectly than Obama did.
Because the Biden* Admin is run by Democrats who hate America and are generally utterly worthless pieces of shit.
I sense a mess of incoherence finding temporary release from its own incoherence in this infatuation with Putin the person. There are clashes of interest here, and if we are not careful, we will be back to Sarajevo 1914 all over again.
Thank you for playing, but no. We're focusing on Putin the person because Putin the person is the one driving this shit
And the benefit of focusing on him is it lets all teh other corrupt oligarchs know that if they get rid of him, and get out of Ukraine, things can go back to normal
Michael K said...
I agree it is about territory. Putin wants a buffer zone between NATO and Russia.
Bull fucking shit
Neither Putin, nor any other person in the world with even a slightly functioning brain, thinks that NATO is an actual threat to Russia, in any way other than it will keep Russia from re-enslaving the countries around it.
Putin wants Ukraine, because it was once part of Russia,a nd he wants it back. And then NATO will be on the border of the new Russia, so it will be a threat.
Pull your head out, This is about a thug who wishes to be an expansionist dictator, being upset that he's not allowed to bully those around him.
He will always be pissed, and always be pushing, until he's dead.
Therefore, if you have a functioning brain, you want to give him as few resources as possible. Which means don't ever let him expand
Bob Boyd said...
There is a lot of Putin mind-reading in the press these days about how he wants to essentially make Russia great again.
It's not mind reading when he tells you what he wants.
it's just pulling your head out of your ass so that you can listen
Like any politician, Putin needs support to stay in power, support from the rich oligarchs, support within the military and the security services and support from the people. If Putin seems weak and ineffective to his support base because he let Ukraine become a NATO ally and an EU member, his support would be seriously eroded. He would probably be replaced.
Bzzt. Putin has repeatedly snuffed out any oligarch who demonstrates any interest in challenging him. There's no threat on that front any more.
The only one in Russia who;'s been bitching about Ukraine joining NATO and the EU is Putin. And he hasn't been doing it because it would make him look weak, he's been doing it because having Ukraine join NATO and the EU would mean he couldn't conquer it and drag it back in as part of Russia.
There are a lot of important economic considerations for Russia in Ukraine, not the least of which is the gas pipelines that are Russia's economic jugular vein. If he let the west take control of them, he would lose a lot of support he cannot afford to lose.
WTF?
The whole POINT of those pipelines is to send gas to the West. Who's going to "take control of them"? His customers who need him to keep the taps open?
This is pathetic arrant stupidity.
Putin has no legitimate complaints against Ukraine, or the West. Teh problem is that he's a former KGB Colonel who wants to threaten the entire world. That's not the world's fault, it's his.
And the only reasonable solution is to crush him like a bug. However long it takes.
Because it will never get cheaper than it is right now
tim in vermont said...
It was stupid to leave an enemy with as much power over world affairs, military, and economic, without an out.
No, what's completely fucking stupid is to reward a thug who wishes to conquer and enslave those around him.
Putin has no legitimate goals. Because of that, there's no reasonable way to leave him an "out", other than "stop fucking around".
I think that five years of a constant firehose of anti-Putin propaganda, and the purge of our military of people who would not go along with it
Anyone in our military who was NOT opposed to a Russian dictator who openly mourns the end of the USSR is too stupid to pour piss out of a boot.
has made it impossible for our leaders to understand what he wants, and thus to see a way out of this.
There IS no way out of it other than beating him.
Which may mean spending the next couple of years funding Ukrainian partisans to keep on killing Russians until Russia gets the fuck out of Ukraine.
We know what he wants: he wants to build an empire and take over everything he can get his hands on.
He won't ever stop until he's forced to stop
So we can stop him now, or we can give him more resources and then have to pay more to stop him later
Why would a post Putin Russia see our finance and tech infrastructure, as well as the dollar as the reserve currency, as anything other than extensions of US military power?
They ARE extensions of our military power.
WHICH ISN'T A THREAT TO RUSSIA UNLESS THEY TRY TO INVADE THEIR NEIGHBORS
What part of that don't you understand?
What part of that do you claim that the poor benighted Russian oligarchs don't understand?
I guess that the above makes me a "Putin fanboi."
No, it makes you a moron who's living with his head up his ass, desperately refusing to see what's right before your eyes
I spend time in the summer in bear country, you know what I do there? I take steps to avoid trouble with the bears in the woods, and I don't blame the bear for being a bear if I screw up, the way Biden did, if something goes wrong.
This bear is carnivorous, and wants to kill you.
you can kill it, hide in your house and never go out, or die.
If you don't kill it, then you deserve to die
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