From FiveThirtyEight: There’s a hypothetical mechanism that could allow this to happen biologically, said Deepta Bhattacharya, a professor of immunobiology at the University of Arizona. And that mechanism is … well … it’s boogers and phlegm.
“So, the virus enters in through the upper respiratory tracts, either through your nose or your throat. And those are protected by a mucous layer. And so that mucous layer is good at slowing things down from getting into you. But it also acts as a barrier for things like antibodies, and certainly for cells from getting out and meeting the virus as it comes in,” he said.
[Your immune cells] might not be able to neutralize the ones resting in your nose, on the other side of your mucous barriers. Those COVID-19 viruses wouldn’t hurt you, but they still might be able to replicate and shed — coughed back out of your nose and mouth....
पोस्ट्स
१९१ टिप्पण्या:
Then there's this... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOkkWIOkWl8&feature=emb_logo
Politicians lie about uncertainty. Are you living life or trying not to die? Happy Birthday Ludwig Van.
The money quote in the article: "If only we knew for sure."
Kinda sums up the whole Covid thing, doesn't it?
Pretty clear solution: we should continue lockdowns, school closures, mask wearing even after everybody is vaccinated.
Those aren't new multiplying virus but just carried-around ones. You're just carrying them around from wherever you got them.
Another reason not to eat boogers.
I understand that booger eating was recently banned in Cali. Makes sense now.
This tells me they are never going to relax the restrictions, they will never let us get back to pre-Covid normal. It will be zoom and family absent holidays now until you die.
You can still pick, but don't flick.
"We have now had nearly nine months of being treated like utter imbeciles. A once great country with a once free people has been reduced to the level of being governed by pathetic, childish slogans. And for some reason we have allowed ourselves to be infantilised." (From the UK's Rob Slane/Zero Hedge)
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/2020-year-we-let-ourselves-be-infantilised-and-dehumanised
ESPN's Booger McFarland was unavailable for comment.
They want to make sure you don't get the idea that just because you are vaccinated doesn't mean you get to stop wearing a mask.
I thought it was going to be zombies, but it's neurotics.
this is pretty stupid. You might as well say that a person who has covid-19 immunity may still spread it if a covid-19 infected person coughs on them & the immune person then bumps into another person.
I mean, this is world-class idiocy of an awesome degree.
These comments are exactly why civilians aren't allowed in the sausage factory.
Virus caught in your phlegm can still be expelled and spread? They are trying awfully hard to keep the hysteria going.
Blogger Howard said...These comments are exactly why civilians aren't allowed in the sausage factory.
We ingest things all the time that would make us puke with disgust if we knew. COVID’s most horrifying unsung legacy is making us more aware of how gross our interactions with others are.
One would think that after two major analyses failures (2016 and 2020), the FiveThirtyEight website would be relegated to the trash heap of history.
Two weeks to flatten the curve.
Then science was thrown out of the room like a Republican poll watcher.
Well put, tim maguire.
Hypothethetically, you can also get struck by lightning or die in a automobile accident after taking the vacine so you need to stay home until you are told you may leave.
Control freak, control thyself.
Between nonsense like this & the fantasy of a "new strain" of covid in the UK justifying a harsh, Christmastime lockdown, I am convinced that the politicians and "public health experts" are dead certain that they will never be seriously questioned by members of our journalist class.
Hypothetical....and untested.
It's like getting re-infected after recovery. They keep telling us it is possible as they have 2 or 3 instances recorded in the entire world for the entire duration of the pandemic.
Even if the hypothesis were true, the spread would be far more minimal than any other existing flu virus.
So even after you've been vaccinated, you should keep your distance and wear a mask. Even though you probably don't have the virus. And the mechanism by which you could spread virus is entirely hypothetical. And the risk of spreading the probably-nonexistent virus can't be quantified. One in a thousand? One in a trillion?
We have reached Peak Panic and Peak Stupid at the same time.
The Covid goalposts have been so moved so many times, the government elected to put them on wheels.
"One would think that after two major analyses failures (2016 and 2020), the FiveThirtyEight website would be relegated to the trash heap of history."
Just be sure to include everyone who repeatedly made a big deal about the Kraken that was to be unleashed (every few days) since the beginning of November.
They're similarly proven to be full of shit
Here is what CNN says about the new, hyper-contagious covid-19 strain in the UK: https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/19/uk/christmas-covid-strain-restrictions-intl-gbr/index.html
Nothing in the article says that the UK's recent high covid positives are due to a new, hyper-contagious strain of the disease. What there is, is a lot of speculation and the same-old post hoc, ergo propter hoc "reasoning" that has been used by "public health officials" to destroy countless lives and impoverish hundreds of millions of people.
The Boston Globe reports:
"New science reevaluates risks of indoor dining
Although few cluster have officially been traced to restaurants, research suggests inside eating is not necessarily a safe environment."
Weasel language and a thoroughly stupid premise.
Also, "The pandemic crushed businesses on Boston's Water Street."
The pandemic didn't do any such thing.
As I've said before, the left loves this, and the misery it creates, and the fact that it mainly kills the elderly, and the way it is destroying jobs and small businesses, and boy would they love to extend these circumstances to forever.
And all of this for a virus that is less than one-fifth as harmful as the normal yearly flu epidemic: Essential facts about Covid-19
@Mark. Look ... squirrel!
I woke up this morning and decided that it was too unsafe to get out of bed. Then I decided it was too unsafe to stay there. I came downstairs and booted up my computer, only to read this.
I guess suicide is the only option.
Masks today.
Masks tomorrow.
Masks forever!
The problem with giving an inch to Leftist Collectivists is that they are would-be totalitarians.
They cannot be trusted, therefore, to negotiate in good faith.
If you give them an inch, they'll dispose of your Natural Rights.
Anybody who cannot see that is a fool.
If they are trying to convince me not to get vaccination they are well on the way.
Hypothetically, a woman can be become pregnant if hit by a musket ball shot through a man’s scrotum. This is why all women should wear chastity belts.
Here's an outline of a more detailed explanation for why this is not of concern.
It does not matter that once in a million interactions someone with very low levels of the virus passes it on to another person.
And here's the point where I should drop in the statistical analysis that will produce this tiny number that reflects the rareness of such events.
But let's look at it another way. Imagine that the only way the Covid-19 coronavirus could pass on from one person was through such low-frequency events. Now in that world would anyone have ever heard of Covid-19? Well, of course not. It would be such a rare thing that no one, including the medical profession, would have ever even noticed it.
If you are trying to stop an epidemic, we should be focusing on the high frequency, the high probability, and the normal ways that the virus spreads. And 99% of the time this virus is being spread by a person that has very high levels of the virus in their bodies.
The only thing we need to do to stop this virus in its tracks is to detect people that have very high levels of the virus in their bodily fluids and if those people can be prevented from passing it on during the brief period of time that they have high levels, usually three days but no more than five, then we could end this epidemic, through testing alone, and wipe the virus out.
We do not need to worry about or pay attention to people who have extremely low levels of the virus. They are not a sensible risk.
The only reason I would consider getting this vaccine would be to get rid of the masks and the lockdowns, If that's not going to happen, then every reason left to get it is not worth the risk. I'll take my chances on the therapeutics if I should happen to defy the odds and actually get the virus.
Today's Experts... largely full of shit, and they're democrats. Go figure.
The election was stolen, but tens of millions of citizens voted for this mess. Too many bedwetters being pushed around by authoritarians.
God help us.
The good news:
This will alienate young people and make them more cynical about TPTB.
At this point TPTB are telling young people they will never get laid.
Never kiss.
Never hug.
That is a message destined for failure.
Viral load is term now down the memory hole.
The pregnancy hypothetical is a good analogy. Is it medically possible to get pregnant dry humping? Yes. Will it happen? No
“ The only reason I would consider getting this vaccine would be to get rid of the masks and the lockdowns, If that's not going to happen, then every reason left to get it is not worth the risk. I'll take my chances on the therapeutics if I should happen to defy the odds and actually get the virus.”
I probably will. My partner doesn’t get out a lot. I do. And most of whatever she gets is through me. We are going to try skipping her annual flu shot, because she always has side effects from immunizations. I don’t. My being vaccinated for COVID-19 should protect her decently well - except that we were visiting her daughter last night, who has teenagers, and the two of them were sharing a Vodka bottle.
I guess I should ask the obvious question: if Five Thirty Eight can’t be trusted to get election predictions right, which is supposedly their primary job, how can we trust them to make healthcare decisions?
tim maguire said..."We ingest things all the time that would make us puke with disgust if we knew. COVID’s most horrifying unsung legacy is making us more aware of how gross our interactions with others are.
My Grandmother, once told me "You're gonna eat a peck of dirt before you die"
As in..it's ok to pick that dropped cookie up off of the kitchen floor if you want.
I believe she is right.
If you want to get REALLY GROSSED out...look up the percentage of insect parts,pulverized gravel and dirt that are allowed to be sold in ground coffee. If you buy imported exotic ground coffee be prepared to be really really grossed out. (Read that in the WSJ while reading the paper with my morning coffee, 20 years ago in my financial planning office. We have been grinding our own beans ever since!)
So no matter what, stay in your house forever!
They wan't this to be like climate change
A power transfer which never ends.
"My Grandmother, once told me "You're gonna eat a peck of dirt before you die""
My grandmother called dog shit "dog dirt." Yours?
The more people who are vaccinated, the less people who will be affected by anyone’s Covid laden mucus. The virus may still be inhaled and spewed out by immune people, but would essentially make only the unvaccinated ill. It would stand to reason that eventually the virus that is still being expelled into the air will become rarer as time goes on and it doesn’t find a host to breed in, so speak. Less bodies to replicate in, less disease, less Covid particles in people’s snot. However there are going to be the antivaxxers, the scared people, conspiracy theorists who think a microchip will get injected into them with the vaccine, the selfish people, the Covid deniers, so I suspect the Covid virus will still be circulating for quite some time.
“CNN: Does that mean we will need to wear masks in public from now on?
Wen: No, not forever, but for a while longer. It's estimated that about 70% of Americans must be vaccinated before we get to herd immunity through vaccination. That's the point where enough people have the immune protection that the virus won't spread any more.
This means about 230 million Americans must receive the vaccine. It will take time to produce this many vaccines — and remember the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, so you need double the number of doses as people. Then the vaccine must be distributed and actually given to people. If all goes well, the best estimates are that it will be late spring or early summer for most Americans to receive the vaccine. At that point, we could probably see one another without masks — but not before.”
Would that not be true of all viruses against which we take vaccines, mandatory or not. How many of those have caused pandemics. I think we passed the “number of angels on a pin” milepost a long ways back and that too at Warp Speed.
Only those people who wash their shoes should be allowed outside, obviously.
Royal ass I ha thinks we will only have to wear masks for a little while longer.
Perhaps only two weeks to flatten the curve.
"People in authority lie." - Robert Kennedy , Jr. As told to him by his father. And, he should know.
I am as watching the Martha MacCallun show last week and one of her guests said this.
“Consider the possibility that we are led by idiots”. So true
This whole thing is driving me crazy. There is a chance of dying every single day, but we still continue to live. Hell, I have had breast cancer twice. I had just completed treatment last January, just before the lock downs started. I was so looking forward to healing and enjoying life. Granted I have made the best out of the situation, but that ability is just about to end. I am sick and tired of this. My latest rant is over the discussion about the order of distributing the vaccine. What The hell have these groups been doing? We knew a vaccine was coming, just not when. The roll out order should have already been determined. Why are they just now holding emergency meetings to figure this out? Imbeciles, all of them!
Sadly, I am losing confidence daily. Soon it will be gone.
One of the big banks has a report saying the worst is over by the end of January.
Can we start a campaign to get men to stop hurling loogies everywhere ...?
The gas station, the trails, the grass, the sidewalks, it's gross man-loogies everywhere.
In the age of covid, it's really gross.
Russia Russia Inga- it's laughable that you think anyone here gives a crap about your opinion... on any subject.
"Phlegmish painting" is not what it sounds like.
“Russia Russia Inga- it's laughable that you think anyone here gives a crap about your opinion... on any subject.”
Oh my! Oh no! If I knew that I would’ve stopped commenting years ago! Oh whatever shall I do?!
The Pareto distribution method works for almost all real world problems, i.e., only address the first 80% of causal factors because the last 20% is not worth the effort and may even be counter productive. Also stated as perfection is the enemy of the good. A lesser known corollary is "those who hypothesize about boogers should be ruthlessly mocked, then tarred and feathered." So, act accordingly.
Some people are so invested in the belief that we are all going to die from Covid that they can't give it up. As of yesterday there were 6 cases of severe reactions to the vaccine out of 272,000 doses administered. No deaths. Yet I must have seen 10 headlines screaming of the risk.
The booger problem, if it exists at all, is easily solved. If you're scared to death of it, wear a mask. Then the rest of us normal people will know who you are.
I think its funny that the experts still think that the average person wears a mask correctly. The majority of the people I interact with in a day (about 500) do not have the mask on properly. They either have their nose uncovered or a large gap around their nose. And as time passes a larger and larger number of people are not only not covering their nose but have a large gap around their mouth. Also a good 10 percent remove the mask when they talk to you.
We no longer ask people to wear a mask and people drink beverages while shopping if they want. The experts have lost their credibility over mask wearing and most people only do it so they don't get hassled by a Karen that is afraid of everything.
Ann Althouse said...DBQ "My Grandmother, once told me "You're gonna eat a peck of dirt before you die"
Althouse:My grandmother called dog shit "dog dirt." Yours?
I think I recall that! I didn't know her for very long as she passed when I was quite young. I do know my husband's Grandma did [d:2012 I think]. Both ladies were from Arkansas.
Dog dirt was less offensive than dog poop or shit. Southern ladies wouldn't say bad words in front of children :-)
Eleanor said...
The only reason I would consider getting this vaccine would be to get rid of the masks and the lockdowns, If that's not going to happen, then every reason left to get it is not worth the risk. I'll take my chances on the therapeutics if I should happen to defy the odds and actually get the virus.
12/20/20, 7:01 AM
Exactly my thought.
I cannot see how it takes so little time to approve something like this vaccine, yet other drugs take years. I’m sure you could come up with many reasons why it is ‘ok, take your medicine like a good child’. How many deaths or serious debilitation will be the result of the vaccine? I guarantee it will not be reported and the facts buried: we won’t know if it’s 1 in 10 million or 1 in 1000, or what, even the underlying cause is.
Wen: No, not forever, but for a while longer. It's estimated that about 70% of Americans must be vaccinated
If the vulnerable and medicos are vaccinated, why does matter if healthy people catch a cold/Flu?
Still back to my original question, nobody can answer.
What's the goal?
Originally the question was before the vaccine, never got an answer.
Now with the vaccine, you declare herd immunity is the goal. Something that has never been the goal before.
My goal is reduce death to annual flu levels. That happens by mid January.
This mucous membranes thing is simply a scaremongering tactic: it’s to convince everyone to get the vaccine, because ‘that’s the only way’.
Tony Heller: Amplifying Fear
Notice this is on NewTube rather than YouTube, since YouTube is close to banning Tony Heller for expressing ideas they don't want people to hear.
Unfortunately NewTube is not a replacement for YouTube since unless you know the name of the video you are trying to view, you will never find it.
YouTube's primary value, beyond the very large number of videos that it hosts, is the algorithm that they have developed, that based on the videos that you view and other data, will find and suggest new videos that you are probably interested in.
From today's WSJ:
Why are so many Italians dying from Covid-19?
After Italy suppressed the first wave with help from a long and stringent lockdown, few Italians thought the high death toll would repeat itself. Virus infections slowed to a trickle in the summer. Millions of Italians adopted mask-wearing. Hospitals and the government appeared better prepared.
Italy’s infections remained modest even in early fall, when a second wave of contagion swept over Spain, France and the U.K. But as winter begins, Italy is back where it was in March: the worst-hit place in Europe.
On Friday, the Italian government announced another lockdown, over the Christmas and New Year holidays, for fear that hospitals could overflow and deaths rise even higher in January.
Emphasis added.
If one was subject to wrongthink, and in desperate need of a Re-education Booth, one might think that lockdowns and masks are completely useless.
They say having a dog in your house helps build your immune system because of all of the "stuff" to which they expose you. That matches my personal experience. I have a dog, and when I catch a cold or the flu the symptoms are very mild and last about 24 hours.
FWIW: We've now had a son (cat owner) and a son-in-law (dog owner) contract COVID-19. They both had the symptoms of a modest run-of-the-mill cold.
the goal is to crush the sme sector, so there is no opposition to ubi and othe schemes, klaus schwab has made it quite clear,
I wonder if Deepta is the brother of Jay Bhattarcharya, one of the Great Barrington Declaration authors. They look like they might be, although Deepta is obviously younger.
(But of course there is "NO" genetic component to intelligence.)
“Now with the vaccine, you declare herd immunity is the goal. Something that has never been the goal before.”
To achieve herd immunity by actually getting Covid would mean possibly more than a million dead. 300,000 isn’t bad enough? Herd immunity achieved by immunization avoids the mass deaths. Sheesh, how hard is this to understand?
“Can herd immunity to COVID-19 be achieved without vaccination?
In most cases, herd immunity is not achieved without an effective vaccine. For COVID-19, the percentage of the population that needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity is estimated to be between 70% and 90%, and this is assuming lasting immunity is possible.”
Achieving Herd Immunity
Assuming immunity is long lasting, to achieve herd immunity in the U.S. without a vaccine would likely require more than 230 million Americans become infected. Even if mortality rates are at the low end of the estimates, there would be more than a million deaths.
Mortality is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this disease. For every death, there are many more hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Patients who are not hospitalized can still have severe illness and be debilitated for weeks. Long term effects of COVID- 19 are just being defined but are likely to be significant in some infected patients. Add to this the risk of strokes and other clotting events in otherwise healthy patients as well as multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children, and the idea of pursuing herd immunity through infection becomes painfully ill-conceived.”
https://www.lung.org/blog/understanding-covid-herd-immunity#:~:text=In%20most%20cases%2C%20herd,lasting%20immunity%20is%20possible.
Italy’s infections remained modest even in early fall, when a second wave of contagion swept over Spain, France and the U.K. But as winter begins, Italy is back where it was in March: the worst-hit place in Europe.
Surprise, Surprise. COVID spread increases in flu season. This is why we have expert epidemiologists to guide us.
"I cannot see how it takes so little time to approve something like this vaccine, yet other drugs take years."
Hint: Other drugs take way too long.
will the virus mutate?
will that provide an ongoing 'necessity' for lockdown-ism?
If you are trying to stop an epidemic
It is debatable that anyone is trying to do this.
Some will be disappointed if the vaccines work.
“Surprise, Surprise. COVID spread increases in flu season. This is why we have expert epidemiologists to guide us.”
You shouldn’t be surprised at all. It was Dr. Fauci who said Covid would spike again in the fall and continue on through the winter. It was Trump who pushed back against this and even said in a news conference after Fauci has just said it would come back in fall, that it might not.
“In February, President Trump told the public that the coronavirus should “go away” by April. In March, he said that the virus may “wash” away by summer. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump told the American public that the virus “won’t be coming back in the form that it was” this fall or winter. He then mused that it might not come back at all.
There will be coronavirus in the fall,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, said as Mr. Trump looked on.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-fall.html
Mortality is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this disease. For every death, there are many more hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Patients who are not hospitalized can still have severe illness and be debilitated for weeks. Long term effects of COVID- 19 are just being defined but are likely to be significant in some infected patients. Add to this the risk of strokes and other clotting events in otherwise healthy patients as well as multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children, and the idea of pursuing herd immunity through infection becomes painfully ill-conceived.”
This is a perfect example of wuhoo flu, fear porn.
100% pure speculation. Not a single of these medical events are tied to wuhoo flu at greater numbers than normal.
Inga continues to ignore the experts analysis of viral load as we eliminate those persons most a risk, from the risk pool.
Sustaining the endorphin rush of wuhoo flu fear porn is an endless task, the leftist are up to the challenge
Meanwhile in China...
Wuhan nightlife is in full swing. No masks, no restrictions whatsoever.
Some may not give this a second thought. Some may find it curious. Others, well, it's proof positive the Chinese communist model works, and we need to drop the hammer on the American public to obtain full compliance on once and for all.
“This is a perfect example of wuhoo flu, fear porn.
100% pure speculation. Not a single of these medical events are tied to wuhoo flu at greater numbers than normal.”
Sorry Iowan. I trust the people at the American Lung Association know more about Covid than a pig farmer.
Those goalposts aren't going to move themselves.
Like in Australia, everything in "Science!" wants to kill you.
I have mentioned the dave cullen videos, that dissident voice in the emerald isle, who points out the real purpose of these lockdowns,
Lockdown yesterday, knockdown tomorrow, knockdown FOREVER!!!
To steal fro a Democrat [politician from the last century who had no love for blacks.
"Another reason not to eat boogers."
We all must sacrifice. I'm doing my part.
The stop Trump virus from chi com Joe China was the wink wink the corrupt democrats needed.
So what if people are dead- blame Trump!
" I trust the people at the American Lung Association know more about Covid than a pig farmer."
It's a shame Governors "French Laundry" Newsome, "Boat Launch" Whitmer, and "Protest Marcher" Wolf do not share your sentiment.
Italy’s infections remained modest even in early fall, when a second wave of contagion swept over Spain, France and the U.K. But as winter begins, Italy is back where it was in March: the worst-hit place in Europe.
"Trump Killed 250,000 People!!!" Another lie.
The idea that you're infectious after receiving an efficacious vaccination is a special kind of stupid and really revealing to anyone with an ounce of common sense that the only goal is to keep everyone masked up and locked down forever.
The 1917 Spanish Flu killed how many tens of millions? 60? 100?
It infected one third of the world's population.
And here humanity is to look back.
Two things worked to reduce transmission:
1) washing hands with soap and hot water, and
2) getting sunlight and therefore Vitamin D into the infected
All else is folly.
DavidUW,
The point is to exercise political control toward totalitarianism.
Leftist Collectivist government and corporate power used together to silence people is corporatist fascism.
That is what the Left wants.
Everything else is a step toward power.
Everything.
@Inga:
To achieve herd immunity by actually getting Covid would mean possibly more than a million dead. 300,000 isn’t bad enough?
"In most cases, herd immunity is not achieved without an effective vaccine. For COVID-19, the percentage of the population that needs to be infected to achieve herd immunity is estimated to be between 70% and 90%, and this is assuming lasting immunity is possible."
Natural experiments have repeatedly shown that 40-60% of the US population isn't susceptible to Commie Cough in the first place. Why so many "experts" keep acting as if the entire population is equally susceptible is a real mystery.
So the percentage of the population that needs to be infected is 80% of 50%, or 40%.
Or roughly 120 million people (85% of whom will experience no, or minor, symptoms).
Beyond that fundamental error, your assertion of 1 million deaths relies upon a number about which neither you, nor anyone else, has any idea. How many people have been infected so far? There have been nearly 18 million cases, but cases aren't infections.
Assume only the symptomatic bother to get tested — that would mean the number of infections could well be approaching 100 million.
Idaho, were I live, has had 110,000 cases. The total number of infections could be 500,000. Idaho's population is roughly 2 million. Given 50% susceptibility and 80% herd immunity threshold, that yields 800,000 required infections. Of course, as one approaches herd immunity, regardless of what quantity that is, the second derivative of daily infections will first reduce, then reach zero, before going negative. According to these calculations, Idaho is ⅝ of the way to herd immunity, and gaining roughly 1500 cases/day (which could mean about 6,000 total infections/day).
In other words, to the extent Idaho is representative of the rest of the US, the case rate should start dropping significantly within the next 30 days, and the US death toll is about 75% of its eventual total.
1 million Mao Tse Lung fatalities?
No way.
Sorry Iowan. I trust the people at the American Lung Association know more about Covid than a pig farmer.
Realy? Exactly why would you base your opinion on what a Public Relations firm says? I could tear into the past failures of the American Lung Association predictions, but you would refuse to learn from that history.
I did notice the lack of cited double blind studies, in peer reviewed journals. (which in its self is a non starter because 70% of those peer reviewed papers turn out to be wrong)
Cite your science, not the PR. Pig farmers learned a long time ago to listen to the science, not the PR. Making pig farmers smarter than nurses. (But then pig farmers starve if they get suckered in by PR. Nurses still collect their paycheck when they get snookered by PR)
Eeeewww! Gross!
Birkel,
I get that.
These people who state this idiotic hypothesis, from Fraudci on down to the morons at Stanford:
"This is why small pox was never eradicated"
"This is why we wear masks after our measles shots"
"your totalitarian streak is showing, you dago dwarf"
The American Lung Association is just like the AMA
You know the AMA, American Medical Association, First declared Hydroxychloroquine, to be dangerous and worthless as a treatment for wuhoo flu, without citing any science, then quietly reversed themselves, because it is safe and effective when taken early.
Exactly what I expect from PR firms
According to experts, the only vaccine that is 100% effective against covid is the one Fauci flew up to the North Pole and administered to Santa Claus.
Sometime in 2021 we will have CDC data about U.S. deaths in 2020. The increase over the "normal" 2.8+ million deaths will not equal the number of reported WuFlu deaths. The hysteria will start to die down as people realize that our experts are both political and full of shit.
“Wen: No, not forever, but for a while longer. It's estimated that about 70% of Americans must be vaccinated before we get to herd immunity through vaccination. That's the point where enough people have the immune protection that the virus won't spread any more.”
“This means about 230 million Americans must receive the vaccine. It will take time to produce this many vaccines — and remember the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, so you need double the number of doses as people. Then the vaccine must be distributed and actually given to people. If all goes well, the best estimates are that it will be late spring or early summer for most Americans to receive the vaccine. At that point, we could probably see one another without masks — but not before.””
“ Achieving Herd Immunity”
“Assuming immunity is long lasting, to achieve herd immunity in the U.S. without a vaccine would likely require more than 230 million Americans become infected. Even if mortality rates are at the low end of the estimates, there would be more than a million deaths.”
I would suggest that that projection likely makes be very unsustainable assumption - that you can apply the national disease fatality rate here. The problem is that the distribution of deaths is exponential, if you just look at age. Even more so if you add in more comorbidities. A handful of deaths for those under 20, and a low death rate up to 40 or so, in the whole country, but very high numbers esp as people get into their 70s, 80s, and 90s. What that means is that vaccines for those under, say 40, unless they are in a position to threaten a lot of old people, should be left to the very end. Best thing that we could do is bring K-12 and college kids back to school, and let the disease ravage those populations. Sure, teachers would have to go back to showing up to work to get paid, which many of them really don’t like. Yes, the deaths of college aged kids will go up, but that will mostly be alcohol (and drug) related deaths, and not from COVID-19. Get everyone without significant comorbidities under the age of maybe 40 to get the virus naturally, and we are well on the way to herd immunity, without a lot of vaccinations or deaths (except teachers would have to go back to work).
Of course, the left has made getting the vaccine a social justice sort of issue, giving preferences to particular minorities, as well as important people (ok - Dem politicians are often overly vulnerable, due to their often advanced age). Stupidest thing that I have heard - except that Blacks, in particular, appear most at risk, mostly, I expect through their higher rate of comorbidities. Which means Blacks would be vaccinated at a higher rate, early on, based on just risk factors. And Han Chinese, and maybe their closer genetic relatives, last, due to their apparent lesser vulnerability to the virus (right now, the best guess is that SARS-CoV-2 was created in the PLA’s virology lab in Wuhan, and very possibly they were working with that type of coronavirus because they, as a people, are less vulnerable to it than anyone else is).
Inga: "Sorry Iowan. I trust the people at the American Lung Association know more about Covid than a pig farmer."
This is a good example of reasoning by authority. I really don't think Inga understands the arguments about how to deal with the coronavirus or what it means or any of the math or etcetera. So she picks an authority to believe in.
That's a perfectly reasonable and rational thing to do, except for the part where the expert she chooses to believe will always line up with ever the left is saying at that point. But a lot of people are in the same position -- that is not really understanding the subject.
But here's where it gets absurd. So despite the fact that Inga knows she doesn't the subject in any detail, she thinks it's reasonable for her to vehemently argue for a position which she doesn't understand!
There's no point in arguing with Inga. Since she can't appreciate an argument against what she is echoing, since she doesn't understand it.
My doctor friend, who had and recovered from covid a couple of weeks ago, went to a football party yesterday to watch a game.
The only people there were others who had gotten and recovered from covid.
He even had his first vaccine shot a couple of days ago.
Interesting idea...
I asked him if the party was being held on Molokai : )
Bruce. Stop with hypothesizing
You’re never to be allowed to see anyone or go anywhere.
We are all going to be masked up and locked down until collectively we say fuck you to our wannabe overlords
Period
Articles like this are setting it up. There is no herd immunity; you might transmit it even after vaccinated (bullshit and counter to any real science)
Teachers will never go back to work voluntarily. They will have to be forced. The excuse will be kids will infect each other and go home and kill their parents and grandparents.
There will be no end tho the current state of affairs until the issue is forced. Probably by forceful means.
Top Men in government have decided that masks and lockdowns are the solution. And, seeing as how it's government, the reaction to finding that masks and lockdowns aren't working is- to do masks and lockdowns even harder. Because Top Men have determined that's the solution. And everybody knows the government is never wrong. Right?
Does Inga ever have an original thought? Doesn't seem like it.
So a virus, which must take over a cell in the host to replicate, will somehow be able to replicate in snot where the bodies cell defenses can't get at it? If the professor actually said this, one should question whether he should be teaching others. Likely, the person who wrote the article added an uniformed conclusion.
Virus are not alive. Virus take over host cells to replicate. If they aren't taking over the cells, they aren't replicating.
There’s a hypothetical mechanism that could ...
Hypothetically I could have been chosen as President of the United States by the Electoral College. Hypothetically the team formerly known as the Redskins can win the Super Bowl.
"Once You Get The COVID-19 Vaccine, Can You Still Infect Others?"
Betteridge's law of headlines: Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word, "No."
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines
Meanwhile, in the UK, the Telegraph reveals:
"Britain on Saturday night alerted the World Health Organisation about a new variant of the coronavirus that the Prime Minister said may be “up to 70 per cent” more transmissible than earlier strains.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific officer, did not put a number on it but agreed the new strain – now officially named VUI-202012/01 – showed a “substantial increase in transmissibility”.
He said the new variant contained 23 different genetic changes, many associated with parts of the virus which control how it binds to human cells.
Over 60 per cent of new infections in London were now accounted for by the new variant, said Sir Patrick, who added: "It moves fast and is becoming the dominant variant.""
Perspective:
Jordan Schachtel
The most important thing you need to understand about people like Fauci and Birx, Whitmer and Cuomo, is that they will look back on 2020 as the best year of their lives.
"You’re never to be allowed to see anyone or go anywhere.
We are all going to be masked up and locked down until collectively we say fuck you to our wannabe overlords"
With that in mind, the wife and I are driving over to our condo in Gulf Shores for a couple of weeks, then visiting her folks in MS on Christmas, and then one daughter and family are coming down from GA to spend a few days with us at the condo. Back to FL after the first of the year. If you click on my avatar, you will see a picture of me giving both middle fingers to statues of Karl Marx and Fredrick Engels in a park in Berlin. I have always said FU to communists and other dictators and always will.
So, maybe we should not call it a 'vaccine', instead just call it a 'better treatment'?
Covid is a political football now. All decisions about it will be made with politics foremost in mind.
Yeah, so, maybe: it might be possible.
But if the probability is down around ten-to-the-minus nine or so then it might not be worth worrying about.
"Might be possible" comes about because zero (as in, zero probability) isn't just a very small number: it's, well, zero. Nothing at all. And although mathematics handles the difference between "zero" and "not zero, but nonetheless very, very small" quite elegantly, journalists never learned math like that and so they keep tripping over "weeeell, if it's not zero then maybe it could happen. (And if it could happen then maybe it will happen. And if does happen the consequences might be dire, and therefore ...).
So, yes, maybe it could. And maybe the water in the top of your drinking glass might start to boil even as the water in the bottom starts to freeze, just because all the higher energy molecules in that water happened to be at the top of the glass. It's insanely improbable that this will happen but, since the probability is greater than zero it just might happen!
"Britain on Saturday night alerted the World Health Organisation about a new variant of the coronavirus ....."
More commonly called "the flu" or "the common cold"
Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. ..............
Other human coronaviruses have since been identified, including SARS-CoV in 2003, HCoV NL63 in 2003, HCoV HKU1 in 2004, MERS-CoV in 2013, and SARS-CoV-2 in 2020.[42] There have also been a large number of animal coronaviruses identified since the 1960s.[43]
Cool your jets people. It is the common flu which we have had for eons and just lived (or died) with it. We can not stop a virus. Ever.
It is well past time that we start to stand on hard facts. The press has no interest in letting this die down because it has been a revenue windfall. But we have to take control of the common understanding.
First question: how deadly is the virus? In order to answer that question, we need a solid denominator. Number of confirmed cases by test is not the correct denominator. Seroprevalence is.
From a definition: “Seroprevalence is the number of persons in a population who test positive for a specific disease based on serology (blood serum) specimens; often presented as a percent of the total specimens tested or as a proportion per 100,000 persons tested. As positively identifying the occurrence of disease is usually based upon the presence of antibodies for that disease (especially with viral infections such as herpes simplex, HIV, and SARS-CoV-2), this number is not significant if the specificity of the antibody is low.”
From what I have read, there are now over 50 independent studies using samples of Seroprevalence, that confirm that COVID has around a 0.2% mortality rate. That’s 2 in 1,000 who contract COVID die from it. CDC data this week shows that 80% of COVID deaths in the US are over the age of 65. That means that the mortality rate of COVID for those under 65 is much, much lower than 0.2%.
Let’s just stop and digest these numbers for a minute.
Prophylactics, early and even late treatments, including HCQ cocktail to reduce hospitalization and death by 80 to 90%, the Ivermectin protocol by 90 to 100%. Avoid Planned Parent facilities. A moderate diet, sleep, and manage stress to sustain your immune system and normal body function.
That said, check for symptoms at the door. Wash your hands with soap and water. Sequester your mask and avoid cross-contamination. Don't forget your goggles, right? The eyes are a window to contagion.
There is no hint from the article that there are different types of antibodies. The article implies that an antibody is an antibody is an antibody.
'“I suspect the answer will be that people will not be able to transmit — that the virus will protect from transmission, because I think there will be enough antibodies made that will neutralize the virus even at the mucosal surface,” said Dr. Warner Greene, senior investigator at Gladstone Institutes, an independent, nonprofit research lab in San Francisco. “But it is just a guess at this point,” he added.'
The kind of antibody that prevents re-infection from a respiratory virus is an IgA antibody. These antibodies are active on mucosal surfaces. Vaccines going into your arm trigger mostly IgG antibodies. They're not so hot at creating IgA antibodies.
http://high-fat-nutrition.blogspot.com/2020/12/igg-iga-and-sniffing-virus.html
The "authorities" don't really want to say this out loud. The implication to me is that you can be vaccinated, still "catch COVID", probably test positive on PCR, and infect other people. You're not likely to end up in the hospital (funny that you're not likely to now, pre-vaccination). If this happens, then what? Does the public lose confidence in the vaccine? Do we get "locked down" forever?
mandrewa: "There's no point in arguing with Inga. Since she can't appreciate an argument against what she is echoing, since she doesn't understand it."
Uh oh. Now you've done it.
Brace for a mass link-post deluge from Inga comprised solely of articles that have headlines that, to Inga, sound "right" since she never actually reads the articles she links to and could not comprehend them even if she had.
Scott Adams feed linked to a study from Wuhan indicating the incidence of asymptomatic spread of C19. Of 300 there was exactly zero cases.
https://www.aier.org/article/asymptomatic-spread-revisited/
See link to study published in “Nature”
Covid is a political football now.
And for a lot of people, football is political Covid now ...
Bob,
There is no F'ing way that you can be vaccinated with a 95%+ efficacious vaccine and infect other people. Period.
If there were, we would still be transmitting measles all over after we got our measles shots.
Measles is a highly contagious (much more so than the 'Rona), transmitted by aerosols, RNA virus spread by shedding from epithelial cells in the body's airways.
The measles vaccine is also 95% effective.
Which is why we wear masks after our MMR shots to avoid transmitting the measles, right?
the "authorities" are lying when they say you might still be infectious after vaccination. Period.
they are lying sacks of shit who want to control your life.
Don't let them.
"First question: how deadly is the virus? In order to answer that question, we need a solid denominator. Number of confirmed cases by test is not the correct denominator. Seroprevalence is."
Seroprevalence isn't going to be that easy to measure. It's easy to look for antibodies, but from the four other common coronaviruses, ie. those that are responsible for 15% of the colds, we know that their antibodies typically disappear after about six months. So an antibody test is always going to underestimate how many people have been exposed to the virus.
A T cell test would be much more useful, but of course T cell testing is quite hard to do.
But in any case we have some upper bounds by this point on the infection fatality rate of the Covid-19 virus. They are upper bounds because our seroprevlance surveys are missing many of the people that have been exposed to the virus and because the number of deaths is exaggerated since all sorts of deaths are being attributed to Covid-19 that shouldn't be.
But even with these high IFR estimates, Covid-19 does not seem to be even close to being as dangerous as the common flu, from a number of years of life lost perspective.
See Essential facts about Covid-19
The only way Covid-19 can be more serious than the flu is if it's significantly damaging people in other ways than death. But it seems to hard to get a handle on how common these other issues are or on finding an objective way to measure it.
I’ve had several allergic reactions in my life. To contrast dye, to multiple bee stings, to pollen/ weeds etc.
I normally get a flu shot.
I will take my chances w/out getting this vaccine. My employer may try to force me though.
mandrewa said, "The only thing we need to do to stop this virus in its tracks is to detect people that have very high levels of the virus in their bodily fluids and if those people can be prevented from passing it on during the brief period of time that they have high levels, usually three days but no more than five, then we could end this epidemic, through testing alone, and wipe the virus out."
I like this idea. It'd be nice if you had a reference for it. I'm also pretty sure we have no way to assess accurately viral load.
Quayle said, "Let’s just stop and digest these numbers for a minute."
People have shouted these numbers from the rooftops since the spring. One might as well throw spitballs at an incoming tank for all the good it's done.
People simply want the pandemic to act like a nice, normal pandemic (1957? 1968?) and JUST GO AWAY!
The appeals to authority are amusing.
There will be coronavirus in the fall,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, said as Mr. Trump looked on.”
Actually, what there is now is flu season, in all its glory, but now it is called Corona virus.
We are heading over to the hotbed of 'Rona next week, California, home of the French Laundry restaurant and Gruesome Newsom. I will be taking my HCQ so we have few concerns. Everything will, of course, be closed but there are secret hiding places known only to Deplorables.
The science of COVID is that many, perhaps most people will be infected, but the disease will not progress. A vaccine does not prevent infection, but primes the immune system to mitigate disease progression.
DavidUW,
You believe the vaccine is really 95% efficacious? In this public health environment? Because Pfizer (and Moderna) said so?
Hmmmmmmm. We'll see.
Regarding measles:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10690626/
mandrewa said, "The only thing we need to do to stop this virus in its tracks is to detect people that have very high levels of the virus in their bodily fluids and if those people can be prevented from passing it on during the brief period of time that they have high levels, usually three days but no more than five, then we could end this epidemic, through testing alone, and wipe the virus out."
Bob said, "I like this idea. It'd be nice if you had a reference for it. I'm also pretty sure we have no way to assess accurately viral load."
Here it is: Ct Values: How They Should be Assessed for SARS CoV 2 (COVID 19 PCR Testing vs. Rapid Antigen Tests)
Now understand, I'm perfectly capable of interpolating and adding my own reasoning on to what he says. But this all seems obvious to me. There's a graph at 2 minutes and 15 seconds into this video that basically tells the whole story. If you understand that graph, together with other things that I know, and I probably falsely think other people know also, then it's all obvious.
By the way, I guess Google has decided I'm doing medical research because I pulled up this video to find the timing of the graph I'm directing your attention to, and I got a 20 minute long ad, which is basically a lecture on how to measure "median fluorescence intensity" with statements like "Rule 3: compensation fluorosphere must..." I don't know how many hours it would take for me to understand what that ad is about! But it does have something to do with detecting antibodies.
And maybe I should expand on my reasoning, and Dr. Mina's reasoning. That graph shows viral load over the course of a number of infections. It's like an average Covid-19 viral infection.
And what it shows is an exponential spike upwards, and then an exponential fall that is almost as fast.
And you said: "I'm also pretty sure we have no way to assess accurately viral load."
Well, we do have a way to do that. It's called the PCR test, which you have heard of. But I don't think you're aware that the PCR test estimates viral load. Unfortunately by the time you get a result back from PCR then high viral load is already past.
But we have others tests, in fact there are multiple versions of this, called the antigen test, and it will give a positive result only when the viral load is high. And it takes 15 minutes to get a result. And it's very cheap and people could do the test in their own homes if the government would just allow it.
This is exactly what we need. One can hardly wish for a better or more useful test.
"One can hardly wish for a better or more useful test."
Better or more useful for whom? The government?
jaydub said...
Another reason not to eat boogers.
Are you living life or trying not to die?
mandrewa,
Thanks. The video was very useful (and I didn't get hit with an ad!).
I'm familiar with estimation (I prefer "guesstimation") of viral load from PCR, so I understand the principle. I need to spend a little time getting educated on the rapid antigen tests. It's just that I've heard they are less accurate (more error prone) than even the PCR test, so I continue to be somewhat skeptical of the testing regime, especially as it's being used for public health purposes.
Another really big issue with this is, there are millions of people in my area (LA County) who would have a better chance dodging a meteor than they would self-taking and interpreting any of these tests. It's a lot like the sentiment, "If everyone just wore a mask." Maybe. But not all mask-wearing is created equal. Just ask Governor Gruesome.
But, yes, it's a great idea worth pursuing.
By the way, you might have seen the recent "WHO Information Notice" on PCR test usage.
"Better or more useful for whom? The government?"
Well since the government is blocking this, and has been blocking this for six months now, then it must be that the government doesn't like the test.
And by blocking, I mean that the government has not approved this for over-the-counter use yet. Your doctor or HMO can buy it, though.
I'll skip the explanation, for now, of why that lack of approval for over the counter use is the difference between defeating the epidemic and accomplishing nothing much.
"It's estimated that about 70% of Americans must be vaccinated before we get to herd immunity through vaccination."
40-60% is the range that has consistently been used to reach herd immunity. When did that change?
And we're already at 18M confirmed cases, with estimates are that there have been 5x to 8x as many additional cases. That would put it at as high as 30-50% that have already had it, which means that we are approaching herd immunity levels right now.
Good article on the disproportionate benefits of vaccinating the older cohorts:
https://www.ariehkovler.com/2020/12/a-little-vaccine-goes-a-long-way/
Oops forgot the link.
https://www.who.int/news/item/14-12-2020-who-information-notice-for-ivd-users
"It's just that I've heard they are less accurate (more error prone) than even the PCR test,...
Yes. That's the standard argument against. But think about it. The answer is actually in that graph that I've been pointing to.
These rapid antigen tests are extremely good at detecting high levels of the virus. If you are talking about billions or millions of copies of the virus per milliliter of fluid, whether it is spit or mucus or whatever, this test is accurate. You will not get any false positives or false negatives to speak of at high viral loads.
And those are exactly the people we want to detect because that is how the epidemic continues.
Where the test is problematic is at low viral loads. But people with low viral loads hardly ever spread this infection. We don't need to worry about those people!
"Another really big issue with this is, there are millions of people in my area (LA County) who would have a better chance dodging a meteor than they would self-taking and interpreting any of these tests."
Yes, but we can't make the world safe for stupid people. I believe that 90% of the population, at least, can learn how to use these tests. It's no more complicated than a pregnancy test. The biggest issue would be people not taking a proper spit or mucus sample.
Perhaps all we need is a good inhalation of crack and a nap.
So they are saying that the vaccine is basically a waste of resources and time for the 95-plus percent of the population that do not have serious reactions to COVID in any event.
538 needs a 2x4 upside the head treatment. Stupidity. Most Democrat governors need the same medicine.
Would change anything
https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/12/shuttering-europe-katie-hopkins/
We can not stop a virus. Ever.
Good to know. I did not realize we were still worried about smallpox (and we're damn close on Polio, there hasn't been a case in the U.S. since 1979).
at 4:58 AM rhhardin said...
Those aren't new multiplying virus but just carried-around ones. You're just carrying them around from wherever you got them.
Bingo. This is the last gasp cry of the power hungry monsters.
It's not going to happen, but we'd be a far better place if every public figure who spouted this BS was line up against a wall and shot
All the Main Stream Media is "good" for is stoking hysteria. They did that with the kid abuse hysteria in the late 1980's where the police detectives would amp-up kid imagination about flying balloons, knives that don't cut and secret clown-basements. They're doing it now about the China Flu. They did it during the 1992 race where they hyped up the recession that had ended by June of that year and paint George H.W. Bush as out of touch. The MSM are nothing but Democrat hucksters - everything they do is for the benefit of the Democrat party.
Keep hope denied..at least until team Joementia takes the reigns.
We will all be wearing masks in the fall/winter of 2021, for some reason or another. Because of "flu season" if nothing else. The elites just like masks too damn much to let this be a one-time thing.
If we're lucky, we'll be granted a few mask-free months in the summer of 2021.
Interacting in person without a mask will soon be a thing of the past.
It's a good thing the democrats want unlimited immigration - both legal and illegal.
What we need is more people! spreading viruses... taking our jobs.
Bob, yeah I do think the 'RonaVax is 95% effective.
But your pubmed article doesn't show what I think you might think it shows.
Interacting in person without a mask will soon be a thing of the past.
Who was that unmasked man?
Just keep encouraging those illegal immigrants across the border and Freder Frederson's comment will no longer be operative.
So there's that.
My friend the pharmacology professor told me last spring that if a drop or two of a random infected person's spit (or presumably, snot) hit my my skin, my immune system would kill it immediately.
In other words, yes, wear your mask, but keep the big picture in mind. There's only so much panicking I am willing to do here.
walter said...
Keep hope denied..at least until team Joementia takes the reigns.
1: It's "reins" :-)
2: Nah, Theydon't want us happy and hopeful ever. Beggars are much easier to please
Just keep encouraging those illegal immigrants across the border and Freder Frederson's comment will no longer be operative.
So there's that.
Bullshit. Smallpox was eradicated in 1980 (last case was in 1979). They don't even vaccinate for it any more. There are fewer than 200 cases of polio worldwide (in just two countries) per year for the last several years.
The study discussed in this article agrees with what mandrewa has said in the above comments.
https://www.aier.org/article/asymptomatic-spread-revisited/
"If that is the case with this one, everything we’ve done over the months – the mask wearing, the grasshopper dance not to be next to people, the canceling of everything, the wild paranoia and premodern confusions – has been a calamitous and destructive waste of time, energy, and money."
ZERO cases that were identified as coming from asmptomatic spreading. ZERO!!
Too many people are paid to say shit. It could change the world if we only paid the ones who got it right.
I don't remember anytime in my life when there was so much bullshit. The culture is about 95% bullshit right now, and most of us don't care about the other 5%.
Would anybody 50 years ago imagine that infinitely more information would make us dumber? How dumb can we get? Another 10 years and the biggest industry may be drool buckets.
Why do they leave out that, in the same fashion, the warm moist mask you wear all day, immune or not, is carrying around the virus which you then redistribute throughout the community with every exhale through it.
I suspect we will find that many cases were actually transmitted by masks, and especially the false confidence they give people. If you watch people wearing masks, they have no fear of close contact. They act like it's some real barrier, that protects them and everybody else even up close. They believe in magic.
bagoh20,
I've noticed the folks sporting nifty designer cloth masks are constantly touching them as they repeatedly slip down.
exhelodrvr1 said...
ZERO cases that were identified as coming from asmptomatic spreading. ZERO!!
--
So you're saying there's a chance......
Ivermectin, HCQ cocktail, both medications designed to fight parasites are effective against the dreaded covid when administered early, preferably with another drug and zinc. Google either and covid for protocols. And I read the other day they’re researching other anti-parasite drugs. Why are anti-parasite drugs against the dreaded covid, a virus? Why did anyone think of using them?
Budenoside and some other inhaled corticosteroids appear very effective against the dreaded covid. Which makes sense since the dreaded covid attacks the lungs.
Low vitamin D blood levels seem to be a great indicator of adverse outcomes if you get the dreaded covid. I’ll bet if body zinc levels were checked the same correlation would exist.
So what does our vaulted medical establishment do if they suspect you have the dreaded covid or test positive for the dreaded covid? Easy. They send you home, tell you to self isolate, and to go to the ER if you get worse. Anyone see a problem with this?
Ivermectin is available OTC for animals, not to my knowledge for us. HCQ OTC in Africa, not here. I honestly would prefer a prescription with one of the protocols easily found on the internet should I be suspected of having the dreaded covid. Along with budenoside. Pills and inhaled medication use different pathways to help out your body’s immune system, which is what’s going to ultimately cure you.
Meantime what can you do? How many of you actually know your vitamin D blood level? If you live in other than the Dictatorship of New York (and less than a handful of other nanny states) you can walk into a lab and order it up for less than 50 bucks. Money well spent. If you’re not taking a daily multi vitamin and mineral (without iron) supplement along with some additional D you’re probably low. What’s too high or too low? Up for debate. I am not a doctor nor do I play one on television, but from everything I’ve looked up 40-60 ng/ml is ideal. And also find a good vitamin K supplement, preferably with the 3 different types. What type of additional D? D2, D3, or both in reasonable amounts. Your body is going to convert either into what it needs.
They act like it's some real barrier, that protects them and everybody else even up close. They believe in magic.
Some, sure. I think most know it's complete bullshit--satisfying a requirement and keeping Karen off their ass.
I said back in April "Fight the masks now or you'll never be able to take them off."
Here we are...
Gospace said...
Blood type appears to play an important role.
Data shows O-NEG are >4% of all serious covid infections. So much information out there, but is sequestered by American media.
O- is about 6% of the US population, so >4% of serious covid infections from that blood type is within statistical limits. Worldwide A and AB appear to have more infections and worse out. The negative appears to have better results. But the data worldwide from what I can see isn’t very conclusive.
Blood type distribution by country and ethnic background varies wildly. If you have Rh negative blood- I strongly suggest you avoid needing a blood transfusion anywhere in Asia or Oceania except New Zealand and Australia.
Have I mentioned I absolutely hate and fetes auto-miscorrect on my phone? And the screen is too small for serious proof reading
Bruce Hayden,
Sure, teachers would have to go back to showing up to work to get paid, which many of them really don’t like.
I can speak only for the public school teachers around here, and not really even for them, as I'm not one myself, though my husband is.
Here in Salem, nearly everyone wants to get back to work. By which I mean "in-person teaching," because remote teaching is, in fact, "work." Harder work, at that. Suppose you are teaching orchestra (as my husband does), and can't listen to your students more than one at a time, or correct them in real time, or do (in fact) practically anything that is involved in teaching orchestra. Nonetheless he and the band director between them put up the other day a damn good version of Leroy Anderson's "Sleigh Ride":
https://youtu.be/TXMJv-N8mAY
This was achieved with each student in his/her own room. No kid in that symphony orchestra has been able to see another kid in an actual, physical space for the past nine months. (And, yes, ASCAP permission was obtained, as you'll see at the end of the vid.)
Do you think this is easy? That any teacher wouldn't prefer to correct a student's bow direction, say, quickly in class rather than remotely and individually? Kids learn music by osmosis, by hearing and seeing one another play. What he has been doing since March is an order of magnitude harder than anything he did before, and he was damned good at that, too.
Don't assume, please, because some union assholes in Chicago want to beg off teaching because it's too dangerous for their fragile selves, that the entire profession is like that.
Blogger Gospace said...
O- is about 6% of the US population, so >4% of serious covid infections from that blood type is within statistical limits.
Covid positive versus infection. Population has nothing to do with it.
I wear disposable masks - and then I wash them. The feel like they lose some thickness, but they smell better.
Yeah - mask hygiene is not a topic on the hack-TV, is it?
Blogger Freder Frederson said...
Just keep encouraging those illegal immigrants across the border and Freder Frederson's comment will no longer be operative.
So there's that.
Bullshit. Smallpox was eradicated in 1980 (last case was in 1979). They don't even vaccinate for it any more. There are fewer than 200 cases of polio worldwide (in just two countries) per year for the last several years.
The field marshal is very good at non sequiturs.
"This was achieved with each student in his/her own room. No kid in that symphony orchestra has been able to see another kid in an actual, physical space for the past nine months."
Sad..
walter,
Yes, sad. I can't begin to explain it to anyone who has never been in an orchestra, but that isn't an orchestra; it's several dozen kids doing their game best to act as though they are in an orchestra. They can't quite do it, but they can try, and what you see is the trying. Amazing and pitiful at once.
My own high school orchestra was much, much lamer than that -- we had maybe a dozen strings total, a few winds. (Salem amalgamates the top wind group with the top strings, so they have much better players altogether. Besides, I was in Orange County, NY, and the only other string program in the entire county was in Newburgh. Which had Kyung-Wha Chung and her siblings, so naturally we weren't in that league.)
Let the kids play in the same room, put the fragile teacher/conductor on a big screen if need be.
Here in Salem, nearly everyone wants to get back to work.
>>
False.
If they did, they'd be at work.
Don't give the bullshit excuses, unions blah blah, county health blah blah
I'm not one of your husband's students, I wasn't born yesterday.
Teachers are the unions. They want to get back to the classroom? Tell the union rep it's time to get back to the classroom. What's the union gonna do, say no?
The county health drone is going to say no? show them the evidence. Where are the kids in private schools dropping dead from the 'Rona? In Florida public schools? The county health drone and rest of the government drones are going to say no to the TEACHERS' UNION?
How fucking stupid do you think we are?
The teachers want to go back to work, you say?
I call your bluff. Get the fuck back to work.
Salem will not, at present, allow students to be in the same room. It's my husband who is at school (not now; we're on break as of Friday, through to 1/4, but that's as it is every year), not the kids. He works from school, and they aren't allowed to be there. And he isn't "fragile." There are teachers who can't imagine being in the same room with students "in these uncertain times," but he isn't one of them.
Salem will not at present "allow" students to be in the same room
>>
Again. Salem will say no to the Teachers' union who funds every single politician's campaign.
I. Am. Not. That. Stupid.
Try again. Oh, there it is, "there are teachers who can't imaging being in the same room with students"
In other words, your husband might want to get back to the classroom, but the MAJORITY of teachers' (who make up the union), do not.
So again, Teachers, generally speaking DO NOT want to return to the classroom.
If they did, again, they would tell there union and there is NOT one single local politician in a single city in the ENTIRE USA that would say no to the union.
that's a lot of typos but anyway. get the gist.
DavidUW,
Look, STFU. Seriously. You have no frakkin' idea. Though I might give you a smidge of a clue by pointing out what went into making that video. Every student had to produce his or her part. To do that, each had to play along to a click-track made by my husband. Individually. If measures were missed or there were other counting mistakes, they needed to be fixed. If there were other errors, those needed to be fixed. In the classroom, this is done easily and in real time, but as there isn't a classroom, they have to be addressed individually and via email or text. I was present while he was working on that; it took twenty hours or so. That's not "class time" or equivalent; it was last weekend. All of it. He was, of course, also "in class" for the usual time, eight hours a day M-F. This was extra. (The band director suggested hiring someone to put the vid together; he replied that he'd do it himself, thanks.)
So you can take your various "drones" and shove them where the sun don't shine. As a matter of fact, most of the people at Salem-Keizer SD are also working their butts off. It is unbelievably complicated, what they're expected to do. And, yes, there's a fair amount of BS in the mix, mostly from the top: "centering equity" and the like. I could show you a 37-page document, replete with repetitions and typos, that made me (and him) want to upchuck. But the actual teachers are working very hard, and I don't know of one who wouldn't trade his current "hybrid learning"/EDGE (that's the remote-only option) job for classroom teaching in a heartbeat.
DavidUW,
Typos, yes. You have more of those than I do, don't you? But then I'm not an icky teacher, merely married to one. Whose typo rate is even lower than my own. But, hey, go ahead and stereotype, why dontcha?
He is, btw, in the union, as he was (and I think still is) in the Musicians' Union. What that means for him is a forced deduction of part of his pay, and a couple of ridiculous magazine subscriptions. It's the price of teaching in this state, just as his Ed. Masters was. (Prior to that, he was teaching at a couple of private schools in CA, where those strictures are laid on, as they are here, only in public schools.)
You can't possibly know what "teachers, generally speaking," want. I have talked to several, and know the lay of the land here in Salem-Keizer. Have you talked to any at all? Or is all this about "drones" and health officials and union reps entirely out of your own head, and/or whatever you read?
Here's the exact quote from my local school board member in an email dated Friday December 18th regarding my inquiry as to the criteria to reopen the schools:
" In order to maintain the integrity of the negotiation process, we will not be able to comment further on matters related to the bargaining process. "
This is all union controlled and there are no plans to go back to in-person teaching, because they do not want to return to in-person teaching.
Again, teachers ARE the unions.
The unions ARE making the rules.
Ergo, the teachers ARE making the rules.
I mean, I got my PhD and all in a real science (Biochemistry) but I think they teach that limited logic in your grades.
If the teachers WANTED to teach in person they could. There is not a single school board member or local politician who has the stones to ever tell the teachers' union 'no' in any municipality, large or small, in the USA. (see above)
That they are NOT teaching in person, means they do not WANT to teach in person.
They're working so damn hard? it sucks so bad this virtual crap? Then STOP DOING IT.
Go to in-person schooling. What's stopping you? Your own damn selves, that's who.
oh, and GFY. I pointed out my own fucking typos.
Michelle,
I started (virtually) showing up at the school board meetings last July.
It was clear then that the plan was never to re-open.
How do I know this?
There was no plan to reopen the schools. By lacking a plan, they were clearly showing that they would not reopen.
Fall rolls around:
County says, "schools can reopen if they follow XYZ"
District says, "nope we're not reopening"
me: "Why can't you reopen"
District: "We don't have a plan"
me: "You had all SUMMER TO PLAN"
District *summarzing*: Tough shit, whatyagonnadoabout it
Winter:
See above for the quote.
Oh, there's a reopening "plan" . It's even longer than your 37 pages of bullshit. But the board member let the cat out of the bag by stating the secret union negotiations were ongoing. For the record, I emailed each board member and the super separately precisely to catch them in their lies. I mean, the most basic trap on the planet and these fucking geniuses fell for it.
Why is the plan 37+ pages long?
Well, because the UNION and the district know that it will never get done. And besides, if by some miracle they could check the boxes in spring, the super secret union negotiations will find some more un-obtainium to demand.
Then we will have summer. Now we can't expect anyone to work on a reopening plan in summer, now can we.
Then we'll have fall. Well, we have no plan to reopen since we didn't work in summer, so we can't reopen in fall.
Then it'll be winter, and maybe if we're lucky, they might get off their collectively bargained asses in 2022.
Teachers=Unions=School Board=Local politicians.
If teachers said "no mas" this would stop tomorrow.
They are saying we like sitting on our asses at home.
Therefore, it continues.
DavidUW,
I mean, I got my PhD and all in a real science (Biochemistry) but I think they teach that limited logic in your grades.
Both my parents, as it happens, are UW/Madison biochemistry Ph.D.s. My undergraduate degree is from UC/Berkeley, in mechanical engineering, and my master's is in musicology, same school. I am, alas, ABD, but I think I have learned a considerable amount between the two very different disciplines.
"I think they teach that limited logic in your grades." Sure, right, whatever you say. You can teach me biochem if you like; over one summer I contemplated switching to Chem. E., because I had so much fun in introductory chemistry, and really wanted to take O.Chem, despite the 8 a.m. lectures and the five-hour labs. (My full scholarship was limited to Mech. E., so in the end I stuck with it.) But if you want to put your "logic" up against, say, George Pimentel's, go right ahead. He wanted me in chemistry, in 1984.
I have told you before that every teacher I know personally in this district is desperate to return to in-person teaching. But, no, you know EVERY teacher in EVERY district in THE WHOLE COUNTRY, so of course you must be right.
Again, the teachers I know aren't "sitting on their asses." Perhaps asses vary across the country? I can only tell you that the teacher I know best worked about 70 hours last week. Though he was, to be just, sitting down most of the time.
Now skedaddle. I'm fair sick of you.
Yeah, I got my PhD from UC Berkeley.
But whatever.
I have told you the evidence is in front of your face.
What is ACTUALLY HAPPENING?
What are teachers ACTUALLY DOING?
You hear a lot of TALK that they want to return to inperson teaching.
Ok. So DO it then.
They are not.
They do not want to.
The evidence is in front of your face.
I'm sick of you parroting the lies you hear, when they're showing you exactly how they're lying to you.
You're a fool to believe them. No matter what George told you.
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Michelle, DavidUW won't mention his district (as opposed to you) which further deligitimizes his claims.
What I hear is much like what you have, and this whole Teacher Union boogeyman is just a load of shit in many places.
Sure, it may apply in some districts, but his claim of universality (like all such blanket claims) fails as we both know people that doesn't apply to.
Let Mr self-proclaimed expert on school reopening keep making overstatement and overstatement, to any fair reader it is clear he speaking well past his expertise and making assumptions on data he does not have.
Mark. It’s Castro valley unified.
If teachers wanted to go back to in person they would be.
You and Michele believe people jawboning about any they want
I judge them by their actions
There’s nothing preventing them from going to in person instruction
Teachers are the union. And no politician in America denies the teachers union what they want
If teachers wanted it. It would happen.
They’re lying. You’re transmitting their lies because you are fools.
Michelle Dulak Thomson
DavidUW,
@Michelle: I'm glad your husband wants to teach, not just get paid.
But @DavidUW is right when he says that teachers are being kept from students by the "Teachers unions".
Whether those Unions are doing what the actual members want, or they're doing what the Democrat Party wants, they are fighting tooth and nail against reopening schools.
And no, you husband can not legally be forced to let the NEA take any money from his paycheck. The SC ruling in Janus was very clear on that. He may have to fight to get the money back, but if he's willing to fight, eventually he'll get It back, with lawyers' fees, and interest
DavidUW,
There’s nothing preventing them from going to in person instruction
Teachers are the union. And no politician in America denies the teachers union what they want
If teachers wanted it. It would happen.
They’re lying. You’re transmitting their lies because you are fools.
See, David, it's like this. The union(s) is/are formed to represent the teachers. Individual teachers are incapable of dissenting from the rules the union puts in place (or, rather, the policies the state enacts on their behalf).
Suppose my husband, or any of the other teachers I have been talking about here, wants to go on and teach in-person anyway. They can't. Because:
--the administration won't stand for it;
--the parents (even those who also want their kids in school) will fall in line behind admin;
--which schools reopen and when is under the control of the Governor, which is the real root of the problem, frankly.
Here in OR, the rule is that a county's schools can't reopen until some COVID metric is met -- I think it's that test results have to be below a threshold and keep declining for three consecutive weeks. Marion County (where most of our district is located) is nowhere near meeting the criteria. Polk County, where my husband's particular school is located, is much closer, but as most of the district is in Marion, it does him no good.
That said, enormous amounts of planning have gone into reopening -- staggering students into "cohorts" that all school together, alternating days, taking prescribed routes through the buildings so that different cohorts don't mingle, &c. No doubt you will dismiss all this as make-work, but it seems detailed and serious enough. Much thought has gone into this.
Music is in a peculiar position, too. Much of the scheduling, &c. is predicated on the importance of marching band to sports, which are pretty big here, so the state agency governing athletics (OAEA?) also governs all non-athletically-motivated musical activities. There has been some loosening of those rules this year, not that it's done us much good yet. But there's talk of scheduling, say, voluntary musical ensembles in off-campus venues (churches, rec halls, whatever) -- except that none of this can happen under the current "freeze," which bans gatherings of more than six people from more than two households altogether. That's not your icky unions; that's everyone. My husband can't so much as coach a string quartet in his studio, and even a solitary student is only dubiously permitted under the current rules.
I'm familiar with Castro Valley USD (I spent 25 years in the Bay Area before moving here ten years ago). Unincorporated Alameda County, isn't it? Sort of east and slightly north of Hayward. Pretty sparsely populated relative to Fremont, Hayward, Oakland, Berkeley, &c. Big houses on steep lots. I don't think it has much demographically in common with Salem. But, then, CA is even more hideously lopsided politically than OR is.
Mark, thanks. I am not going to bat for the teacher's unions, or for that matter for any public-sector union; it can't be right for the state to, in effect, negotiate with itself. The best that can be said for the NEA and the AFT is that they're better than the SEIU and AFSCME. Believe me; I've read their publications. Monthly.
Greg the Class Traitor, yes, I know about Janus. I am not sure that my husband owes agency fees any more. Obviously, under Janus, he shouldn't.
"They can't."
You keep using those words
Along with "they want"
If they want, they can.
If a single teacher wants, sure, that one teacher can't overthrow the union's wishes.
You seem to think a substantial number of teachers want to reopen. That is obviously wrong. As previously demonstrated.
"the administration won't stand for it"
You think the administration would stand against a revolt by the teachers demanding in person instruction? Interesting.
"parents will fall in line with administrators"
Bullshit.
"governor, blah blah"
Again, no democrat governor in particular will stand against the teachers union.
You don't understand or refuse to understand that this is under your (the teachers') control.
If teachers wanted to do reopen, they could.
They don't so they won't.
OK, DavidUW, explain it to me. Explain how my husband is to get his students into in-person instruction, all by himself, while the schools are closed by state government order, and all gatherings of more than six (and/or from more than two households), educational or not, are forbidden in any case. How is that supposed to happen?
Sure, my husband, and those who feel as he does about this, might protest. Assume they have. What are the odds of success? Nil is my guess, because the governor has control of the school administrations and of the physical buildings. If it came to it, teachers who wanted to teach could simply be locked out.
You want to say that the teachers' union(s) as a whole are against reopening? You might be right; certainly they aren't, generally speaking, markedly on the other side. But that's like saying that everyone in CA is a Democrat, because the majority are. If you are a Republican in CA (I'm assuming you are, though I haven't conclusive evidence), what are you really? In a permanent minority, that's what. So are teachers who disagree with the position the union(s) has/have taken.
And do I have to say again that I am not a teacher? I wish I were, frankly, but I'm not.
Explain how my husband is to get his students into in-person instruction, all by himself, while the schools are closed by state government order, and all gatherings of more than six (and/or from more than two households), educational or not, are forbidden in any case. How is that supposed to happen?
>>
As I stated, you are proving my point. Your husband is the only teacher, or a member of a small minority who claim to want to return to in-person instruction.
The majority do not.
If the majority did, the union position (the union being composed of teachers) would be to reopen schools.
The government (wholly owned subsidiaries of the teachers' union in every municipality in America) would agree.
Teachers want to teach, all over the country. k sure
https://slate.com/human-interest/2020/12/school-reopening-teachers-unions-parents-brookline-massachusetts.html
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