Trafalgar Group has Biden at 46.9% and Trump at 46.5%.
I looked at FiveThirtyEight to see what kind of reputation Trafalgar Group has, and I found that "Trafalgar is a Republican pollster with a slight bias toward the GOP."
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Polls is polls.
Five Thirty Eight are pompous hacks with a strong left wing bias.
You need a new tag, irony.
Silver has envy. From Ballotpedia:
During the 2016 presidential election, Trafalgar Group correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the election in Michigan and Pennsylvania and the Electoral College vote.
Funny how the polling website named essentially after the electoral college didn't correctly make that prediction. Especially when you read how Trafalgar came up with their prediction.
Don't doubt it, but isn't Trafalgar the company that precisely called the 2016 general?
Did you check Snopes?
The all important Bob Newhart vote is going for Trump!
I was afraid he would be outnumbered by his clients, like Mr. Carlin, voting for Joe.
"Especially when you read how Trafalgar came up with their prediction."
That's interesting. It's like the recent poll that asked which races you think are mostly racist, eliminating the reluctance for someone to admit his or her own racism.
Trafalgar might be a Rep pollster, but I look at trends. Trafalgar had Biden up by 5 points one month ago. Joe's sinking.
Check out Rasmussen today!
While I like your work to determine the reputation of a single poll, I have to wonder, why now?
After 2016, it is clear the polls give the results the the party that commissions the poll. The customer is buying the product.
So you have to know the customer, then discern the need the customer is seeking to fill.
Permission to use an analogy?
A customer buys a wrist watch. Do you assume the need being filled is to know the time?
Really? Time?
Then explain Timex vs Rolex
What need is being filled?
It took 40,000 "late" votes from two precincts in Minneapolis to put Hillary over the top in Minnesota. Yes, I'm implying what you think I'm implying.
I think Minnesota is kind of an outlier in that a lot of the democrats are democrats because they've always been democrats but are actually conservative in principle. It's fine as long as everything is fine, but it's not fine anymore.
If a polling outfit does not line up with Democrat vote suppression needs by over counting Democrats, it’s biased toward Republicans. LOL. Sometimes I think my one philosophy class was the most important class I took. Today though, they would teach what to think in a class like that, not how to think. Too dangerous to teach kids how to think. They might see through the propaganda.
Joe's polling has reached an "inflection point"?
Public polls and private polls are different because private polls are closer to the truth. Just look at Wikileaks.
"Among the WikiLeaks documents recently released is a 2008 email with an attachment running to dozens of pages telling Democrats how to "maximize what we get out of our media polling.”
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/tom-blumer/2016/10/24/fox-friends-among-few-outlets-noting-leaked-dems-poll-rigging-advice
They wanted inaccurate results for their “media” polling.
Incidentally, I wasn’t able to get a link to the above story through Google, but was in DuckDuckGo. But net neutrality did no address search engine bias, it just tried to capture the networks for people like Google to prevent competition.
How does FiveThirtyEight rank FiveThirtyEight? Leans Democratic and is wrong by 100%?
From what I understand all the other polls still use and R-26 polling sample to shape the outcome of the poll. Same thing they did in 2016. Trump on lost Minnesota by 1.5% in 2016. They may be the surprise. I can imagine outside of Minneapolis that much of Minnesota is happy with defund the police, the looting and violence, and Ilhan Omar.
As Minnesota goes, so goes the nation. Mondale locked it up in '84.
But we are still not to Labor Day, when people start paying attention. Look for the Joementum that has served Biden so well in his other presidential runs. And that Kamala! Who can forget how she dominated every primary she entered this year. (That's a trick. She dropped out two months before the first primary after her campaign collapsed in the fall of 2019. She didn't make it to the Iowa caucuses.)
By methodology, they are one of the best (large sample size made up of likely voters). And while that doesn't mean they aren't more pro-GOP than average, their polling over time shows a large swing towards Trump (5 points in less than a month). And it's not out of line with Emerson, the only other recent poll, which showed a 3 pt Biden lead 10 days ago.
If you dismiss the number but accept the swing, this still bodes well for Trump.
Poll had a 5% female bias. Is that how Minnesota typically votes?
The big difference at this point seems to be that those of us who voted for Trump with a clothespin on our noses are quite willingly pulling the lever for him this time. I know of one person who has changed her mind and will now vote for Trump even though she hates him. She is sick of all of the commie babble, and backing it up with riots so that people are sure you mean it? Well, that helped swing the vote too.
I can’t imagine why the burning of Minneapolis didn’t lock up the state for the Democrats though.
538 means Trafalgar is accurate.
Cannot have that.
Must protect the narrative.
I live in Minnesota. I remain unconvinced Trump will win in Minnesota, but I detect little enthusiasm for Biden and my sense is people are tiring of Gov. Tim Jong Walz. The DFL has a heavier burden in this cycle, but never underestimate the fecklessness of the state GOP.
Kai Akker: "How does FiveThirtyEight rank FiveThirtyEight? Leans Democratic and is wrong by 100%?"
Uh oh.
You've properly characterized a dem polling firm. That usually leads to a very angry reaction and response from #StrongDemDefender LLR's hereabouts....
Trump coudl win New York if he bashed Cuomo and deBlasio as they deserve.
And Joe Biden has dementia, so that, too, will affect the polling going forward.
It's a long way to November and there are going to be some big changes before election day.
There will probably be a working, safe coronavirus vaccine. It won't be available for everyone, but the light will be on at the end of the tunnel. Who will best administer the deployment of the vaccine to the public?
The economy will continue to recover, with a big boost from the vaccine.
The debates will happen. If Joe Biden shows up and doesn't drool all over himself he will exceed expectations. This is why the whole "Biden is senile" thing will backfire if pushed too hard.
We'll still have rioting. I think this is a big sleeper issue. Unless Biden makes a real effort to condemn violence it will hurt his chances and possibly cost him the election. I don't think anyone is looking forward to four years of riots tolerated at every level of government.
Minnesota has been trolling Republicans as a possible win for many elections. The last time it voted R was in 1972. Don't count on it.
I am pretty sure the plan for the Democrats is to steal an election that they know they can’t win straight up, and the press will cover for them and so will the courts. Plus the Democrats hold the House, and that’s a big hammer constitutionally for electoral funny business.
In 2016 Hillary beat Trump in MN by less than the number of people who voted for "Republican" McMullin
In 2018 two R House seats flipped D, two D House seats flipped R, and the State Senate remained R (given Republicans the ability to block the Dems).
Given the utter failure of the Dems at all levels of government during teh Minneapolis riots, and given the repeated threats of the rioters to next go to the suburbs, Trump shoudl ahve a good shot at winning the State
We'll see
Minnesotans would have to be dumb as dirt to vote democrat after what the Dems did to Minneapolis this summer.
Trump will win all the states he won in 2016, plus several more.
Minnesota is a clown state. I sincerely doubt any Republican like Trump will EVER win the vote there. This is the state of AL Franken! BTW, the last time Minnesota voted Republican was 1972, when the entire country (except Mass) voted against McGovern. So, Trump may come close. but get a plurality? Never.
What's weird about 2016 is Minnesota didn't give Hillary 50% of vote. Something like 9% of Minnesota voted for oddball 3rd parties. Just more evidence, there's something wrong with them.
The DFL is losing its grip.
I can’t imagine why the burning of Minneapolis didn’t lock up the state for the Democrats though.
Funny, but I see it the other way. Blacks, by a significant margin, disapprove of reducing funding for police.
Now add the 10% factor for shy Trump poll answerers. Biden is done for.
Funny Binden/Star Trek pic from Lileks
Trump will never carry the Twin Cities. He will carry the rest of the state. By how much, is the question.
As near as I can tell on my visits outstate, Dem governor/dictator Walz is a dead man. He's not on the ballot, but I suspect the outstate voters may reject any Democrat who is squishy on riots.
"I looked at FiveThirtyEight to see what kind of reputation Trafalgar Group has, and I found that "Trafalgar is a Republican pollster with a slight bias toward the GOP."
Is FiveThirtyEight the standard? I thought they said Hillary had a 71% chance at winning the night of the 2016 election?
Oh, by the way, if Minn is tied, it means Trump is up 2-3. Just sayin'.
...with a slight bias toward the GOP
...and that's one of the many things to hate about FiveThrirtyEight right there. The implication here is Trafalgar is somehow inaccurate because their polling doesn't fall in line with the 'consensus' of the other pollsters but the statement itself reveals the problem- the pack is more interested in confirmation from other pollsters than in presenting an accurate snapshot of the electorate.
I just can't grasp why people still believe polls are accurate. I saw the other day Ben Shapiro was chatting with Joe Rogan. Ben said Biden was way ahead in the polls.
Joe pointed out the polls were wrong in 2016.
Ben responded the final polls in November were right about the percentage for Clinton.
This is incredibly frustrating. Sure, polls have to get semi close before an election in order to maintain some sort of credibility.
But in July? August? Why is Shapiro comparing polls in July and August to polls in November?
He should be comparing Hillary's polls in July and August with Bidens.
Btw, if you haven't looked, Hillary was ahead in every poll in August 2016. Trump didn't lead in a single poll August 2016.
Oh, and Hillary's lead at the end of August, averaged almost 7%.
This was an increase of close to an average 2% lead in July.
Bidens biggest lead was in June.
If you want to compare polling, compare the same months. Not the final polls in November to July and August polling.
I don't think the Minnesota pollsters are accurately capturing all the Democrat looters and arsonists who burned down all the businesses and buildings in Minneapolis.
After the convention Biden is going to have to go hard right pro police to counter the violence that is driving his numbers down. I wonder how Harris will like that. He will have to blow off his leftist base and hope they still vote for him. The risk is that he becomes a moderate Democrat one man show.
Five Thirty-Eight gave Trafalgar Group a C- rating as of May, 2020.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Using Nate's snake map it means if the MN poll is accurate AZ and FL should favor Trump at the moment...
The race between President Trump and Joe Biden is verging on a landslide. That’s not a word we use lightly.
Damn. I do not want to hear that. These folks might hate Trump, but they don't want to be embarrassed again. They know their reputation is on the line. Would they risk that for the short-term sugar high of making that bold statement?
Damn.
Whether or not Trump will carry the Twin Cities, the question is this... just how many usually reliable Democrat voters are so disgusted with the destruction of their cities, that they flip and vote for Trump. Same same for the suburbs.
John Lynch said...
Minnesota has been trolling Republicans as a possible win for many elections. The last time it voted R was in 1972. Don't count on it.
The same was true of WI & PA. Until last election.
MN elected GOP Gow T Paw in 2002 & 2006. It had Norm Coleman as GOP Senator until Frankin stole the election in 2008.
I don't know if MN will vote for Trump this time. But unless it ends up being a blowout, MN is in play
"I don't think the Minnesota pollsters are accurately capturing all the Democrat looters and arsonists who burned down all the businesses and buildings in Minneapolis."
They're voting democrat for sure.
Biden's acceptance speech tonight will be a classic of Churchillian proportions and will win over the undecideds and the wafflers among the Democrats.
It may, in fact, be an actual Churchill speech.
bbkingfish,
Thanks for telling us things that are stupid and do not matter.
Leftist Collectivists do not like non-Leftist Collectivists.
Mind status: totally blown!
"Five Thirty-Eight gave Trafalgar Group a C- rating as of May, 2020."
In a rational world, the organization that got 2016 right would be rating the one that got it wrong.
Look on the 2016 county map. The Iron Range is still light blue. The DFL bosses have been screwing around with the mining industry for years, including actively during the last four to stop a mine expansion or something.
I strongly think the Iron Range will go red and Trump will win Minnesota. If I was a betting man....
It will get worst! BTW, Trafalgar is the only mainstream polling outfit who predicted Trump's victory in 2016.
Polls show 72% of likely voters are concerned with violence in major cities. 62% say it will affect their vote. Do you think this is a good sign for Democrats who support BLM and Antifa and claim there is no violence? Blacks by an 80% total don't want Police to be funded and are in favor of increasing funding for police.
Does anyone with a brain or common sense think this is a good sign for Biden or Democrats?
In 2020, Trump is going to finish turning the Republicans into the party of the workers and farmers.
Take that commies.
In the last two elections the Iron Range - heavily Dem/union heretofore - has gone Republican. Given the performance of Walz ( arbitrary lockdowns while killing off more seniors than Cuomo) and the municipal governments of MPLS and St. Paul coddling rioters, it seems quite possible that enough votes may swing into the R column to carry MN. I am not going to hold my breath, but it is well to remember that the non -urban voter in MN is relatively conservative.
I seem to recall Al Franken got into the Senate thanks to the residents of the cell blocks behind high walls, it was that close.
Banjo said...
I seem to recall Al Franken got into the Senate thanks to the residents of the cell blocks behind high walls, it was that close.
No, Frankin got in by his team being willing to demand that every Republican likely vote they could get their hands on be disqualified, while Norm Coleman's campaign didn't want to look bad, so they didn't get Democrat votes disqualified
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