Althouse: "A curious outlier poll from the Democracy Institute shows Trump winning in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania..."

August 4, 2020

"A curious outlier poll from the Democracy Institute shows Trump winning in Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania..."

"... and on course to win the Electoral College 309 to Biden’s 229. The Institute’s poll showed that 58 percent voters found Biden likable, compared to just 29 percent for Trump — but 58 percent also thought the Democrat was exhibiting ‘some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia’; 60 percent thought Biden too old to be president; and 63 percent said he had not been ‘sufficiently critical of the violent rioting’. On the other hand, 61 percent approved of Trump’s handling of the protests and riots and 69 percent said the President was a ‘strong leader’, compared to just 24 percent for Biden. If anything, respondents suggested that Trump had not been firm enough with protesters: 48 percent said he had not been ‘tough enough’; compared to 25 percent who said ‘too tough’. The poll also points towards a potentially huge ‘Shy Trump’ voter cohort — only 27 percent of Trump voters said they were comfortable with people knowing how they’d vote, compared to 83 percent for Biden. And that’s the ones willing to tell pollsters what they really think."

From "Have we passed peak Biden?/The public are now focused principally on the economy — which is good news for Trump" by Freddy Gray (Spectator USA).

90 comments:

rehajm said...: It's only a curious outlier if it isn't confirmed by other polls of the same period. Comparing a recent poll to earlier results only is poor analysis...or manipulation.; 8/4/20, 8:19 AM
Birkel said...: Joe Biden is still the Democratic nominee?
Who knew?; 8/4/20, 8:20 AM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: It's over. Let's talk about Bob Dylan's singing.; 8/4/20, 8:21 AM
Rory said...: "Trump voters said they were comfortable with people knowing how they’d vote, compared to 83 percent for Biden."

It's so odd to think of how many people you know who are adopting public positions solely because they want others to know that they hold those positions. Like a peacock's tail....; 8/4/20, 8:22 AM
roesch/voltaire said...: Spare me the strong man meme and give us a competent, intelligent leader who will not fire competent aids and replace them grifters.; 8/4/20, 8:25 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: So nearly three quarters of Biden voters are hiding their intention from pollsters AND democrats act as if they are barely containing panic over Joe’s campaign, what with his limiting it to five mile radius around his basement and taking few questions and announcing an early VP pick only to delay that inexplicably. Seems like people are not so hip to someone explicitly choosing their running mate on only two criteria that are illegal for most employers to use when looking for help RACE and SEX. Yep. He’s choosing his mate based on being an actual nontransgendered female with brown skin. No other stated qualifications. No others need apply. Seems very anti-American on its face. And the fact is by limiting it to the third criteria, LOONY PROGRESSIVISM, Biden has restricted himself to the famous dilemma of NO GOOD CHOICES.

Watching this specific ring within the Democrat crazy-circus is a delight for me! Schadenfreudalicious!; 8/4/20, 8:28 AM
Dave Begley said...: No outlier.

My 40 state win for Trump is looking good.; 8/4/20, 8:33 AM
iowan2 said...: It does appear Bidens approval meets technical resistance about %45

If the left is going to get above that, they are going to have to elaborate on the "danger" associated with President Trump.

Find a 4 year period we have been so militarily disengaged. I can list about 4 World Wars President Trump has diffused(according to dnc stenographers), without appeasing the instigators.
NATO paying more of their share but not the full 2%GDP (work in progress, dems will demure to old ways)
The economy
The covid response(perfect according to Fauci)
Deregulation

Yep, a real dangerous man...to leftists, Great for the USA; 8/4/20, 8:34 AM
JPS said...: Some of these questions go to exactly why I can't quite believe the middle is going to go for Biden. (I figure we already know how 80+% of voters are going to vote.)

If they're going to vote a 77-year-old into the Presidency, normally he's going to have to be a particularly vigorous 77-year-old, someone you look at and listen to and say, Yeah, he's old, but look at him! He'll be fine. And if Biden were in that condition, every Biden-friendly pundit would be clamoring for more debates.

The words he speaks fall into two categories: Carefully scripted banalities, or spontaneous, vigorously delivered nonsense.

Whichever way it goes, I sure hope the winner actually receives more votes than his opponent, because otherwise it dooms the Electoral College.; 8/4/20, 8:34 AM
Meade said...: "...give us a competent, intelligent leader who will not fire competent aids and replace them grifters."

Let me tell ya — them grifters needed a good old-fashioned replacing. Plus a swift kick in the pants.; 8/4/20, 8:35 AM
Jaq said...: In Vermont I saw my first Biden yard sign. There are homemade Trump signs and beat up old Trump flags hangin from the screened rooms off of trailers and such just like there have been, but yesterday I saw the first Biden sign. Glossy, bright colors, obviously union made in a professional print shop, on the main road in front of an expensive looking house.

It’s pretty funny to me to see people like Robert Cook lining up with the wealthy agains the poor because he despises the poor, or at leas the “wrong sort” of poor, the ones he maybe feels it might drag against his hard fought status were he to sympathize with them, having so recently left their number. Biden is counting on status anxiety, I think, quite heavily.; 8/4/20, 8:39 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: when do they insert Hillary? Her family foundation received money from Russia.; 8/4/20, 8:39 AM
Mike Sylwester said...: Keep in mind that in the final days before the election, the Kremlin will buy many Facebook ads (e.g. Jesus arm-wrestling Satan) to be displayed to Facebook users in the battleground states.

And, just like in 2016, our Intelligence Community will observe this meddling in our election but will be helpless to counteract it.; 8/4/20, 8:40 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: If there is Karma - Trump will win.

The left deserve to be crushed for the Maddow-Hillary-Corrupt FBI/CIA STrozk BS Trump-Russian collusion BS.

And then the shampeachment based on Biden's REAL criminal acts as VP.; 8/4/20, 8:41 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: MSNBC producer resigns from network with scathing letter: They block 'diversity of thought' and 'amplify fringe voices'

You don't say?

You mean - MSNBC is all Progressive-Democratic narrative propaganda, all the time? no way!; 8/4/20, 8:44 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: It's All OK for the Clinton Foundation to receive mega-millions from Russian Oligarchs.; 8/4/20, 8:44 AM
sunsong said...: LOL; 8/4/20, 8:45 AM
Jaq said...: "It's over. Let's talk about Bob Dylan's singing.”

This is what they have, voter suppression. Don’t be surprised if the networks call Florida for Biden at 8 PM, before the polls close in the panhandle, which is Trump country, ‘accidentally’, like they did in 2000 for Gore. That one dick move by the MSM to try to seal it for Gore cost the country weeks of trauma and delayed the transition. It’s a pattern. They used impeachment the same way to take Trump’s eye off the ball deliberately. Too bad for us there was a pandemic brewing, but too bad, so sad, politics ain’t beanbag.

"will not fire competent aids and replace them grifters.”

You mean like people who were making millions out of covering for billionaire kleptocrats in Ukraine by making up a bullshit impeachment and steadfastly pretending that they were on the side of right when it was all just a cover up for Ciaramella’s cronies and for the fact that Ukraine had invented evidence against Trump’s campaign manager at the behest of Democrats. You know, solicited foreign election interference.

ARM will call that “hysterical” but he won’t call bullshit on any of it because he is afraid to find out that it is all well documented. Most people don’t actually think it’s OK for the VP’s son to collect millions and millions of dollars using his dad’s connections. Nor do they think that the brother of the VP should get multi billion dollar contracts in Iraq, like Biden’s brother did, for stuff, just like in Hunter’s case, that he knew nothing about.; 8/4/20, 8:47 AM
Gk1 said...: I see more "Any competent Adult for 2020" yard signs and bumper stickers here than Biden signs. I drive up north on the 101 and I see plenty of Trump signs and support. I take that to mean that even in the blue areas of the country there is zero Biden enthusiasm. I can't imagine what it is like in purple or red states Biden supposedly was leading by 10 points a week ago.; 8/4/20, 8:48 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Tim - I note the same thing in this area.

The wealthy folks all want Biden. Biden sign on the lawn of the fancy homes. The beat up old trucks and older cars reveal support for Trump.

Tho mostly it's all still support for Bernie. Freaking commies.; 8/4/20, 8:48 AM
Temujin said...: "Spare me the strong man meme and give us a competent, intelligent leader who will not fire competent aids and replace them grifters."

You're gonna need another country.; 8/4/20, 8:51 AM
Jaq said...: Let’s put grifter against grifter.

Hillary collected hundreds of millions from Putin cronies while SoS and heir apparent to the presidency for starters. Can R/V match that one?

We can talk about the meeting in the White House where the “whistleblower” informed Ukraine that they would need to fire the prosecutor looking into the company Biden’s son worked for to raise the pot a little bit. I have billions more, but you go ahead R/V and ante up your example of “grifting” from the Trump administration.

Nah, You have already run away and hidden. What are facts in the face of your ‘narrative,' after all?; 8/4/20, 8:51 AM
Chris N said...: People who tick off boxes like ‘black’ and ‘woman’ and ‘lesbian’ can’t possibly be grifters.

Republicans tend to avoid as much grifting as the Democrats because they are more likely to be productive in some newer enterprise or existing company which answers to customers and shareholders, not merely to a voting bloc, union and/or ward or employee of the State.

Which explains a good amount of the TDS.

You haven’t processed the loss of the Clintons, the sinecures gained, and the clear dangers the radicals to your Left pose but you want more political power and authority (of course). Keep screaming away.

I can only speak for myself but I won’t be voting for any Democrats and there are weak institutions and clowns everywhere at the moment. It’s a real shitshow; 8/4/20, 8:55 AM
Christopher B said...: ..give us a competent, intelligent leader.. says the guy who is going to vote for the senile pedophile whose son specializes in being his bagman.; 8/4/20, 8:57 AM
Catherine said...: They need to set up a "Biden cam" similar to the Washington eagle cam. Then everyone can stay glued to the monitors for any signs of life or movement. It'll make national news when Biden goes to the mailbox.; 8/4/20, 9:00 AM
Gordy said...: 58 percent voters found Biden likable

Biden is a dick, and that should be pretty easy to show to people who haven't being paying attention to him during his many decades in government.; 8/4/20, 9:02 AM
Known Unknown said...: "...give us a competent, intelligent leader who will not fire competent aids and replace them grifters."

Do you even government, bro?; 8/4/20, 9:02 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Now factor in theTransition Integrity Project, a coproduction of DNC and Nevertrumpers who “wargamed” the election and every scenario ended in street violence and a disputed outcome, with Podesta pushing for Biden to refuse to concede and for WESTERN STATES TO SUCCEED to stop a second Trump term. ARM will support secession and destruction of America because orangemanbad.; 8/4/20, 9:12 AM
rehajm said...: Yah, replace the grifters in government and DC looks like a neutron bomb test site.; 8/4/20, 9:12 AM
iowan2 said...: The wealthy folks all want Biden. Biden sign on the lawn of the fancy homes. The beat up old trucks and older cars reveal support for Trump.

I have doubts that the rich favor Biden. Unless they are old rich, and have no concept of economics. If you are of the IQ 90's, you are still cognitively aware enough to understand vibrant economy does wonders for your trust fund.
People whose earnings are on the top end, for sure understand economics and understand a vibrant, diverse economy is job security, and the only opportunity to turn earnings into wealth.
So the Biden signs on higher end housing is more likely virtue signalling so they don't get cornered at the country club, BLM protest, by some Karen.; 8/4/20, 9:13 AM
Michael K said...: A post like this sure brings out the lefties.

The whole election issue comes down to whether the Democrats can generate enough fraudulent votes to overcome the Trump voters. The mail-in ballots will help.; 8/4/20, 9:18 AM
Big Mike said...: 58 percent voters found Biden likable

And that’s before the Trump campaign or an allied PAC runs ads showing Obama’s VP getting handsy with adolescent girls.; 8/4/20, 9:21 AM
Big Mike said...: Spare me the strong man meme and give us a competent, intelligent leader who will not fire competent aids and replace them grifters.

@roesch, then Biden’s not who you want, either.; 8/4/20, 9:23 AM
Gusty Winds said...: If all mail in voter fraud can be kept to a minimum in swing states (Michigan and Arizona especially) Trump can win.

Nobody is talking about Minnesota which trump barely lost in 2016. Do those people really want to turn into the 3rd precinct in Minneapolis. The police department guidelines on "how to be safe" in that area seemed much like Bobby Knight's "if your gonna get raped, lay back and let it happen'.; 8/4/20, 9:25 AM
Gusty Winds said...: I'll tell you what can predict this election. If Althouse and Meade are ready to vote for Trump, you know it's over. Not that they will let us know, but if Biden or any Democrat support slips in Madison, Wisconsin belongs to Trump. One or two percent shaved off Madison would do it.

I'm sure they have friends in town that might be thinking the same thing. But like the poll shows, they can say anything publicly, or their house will get vandalized, and they will have protesters with bull-horns out front. Plus you might never get invited anywhere again. Free speech, you know. Tolerant Madison, WI.

I can't imagine being retired in Madison with all that has happened there this year and thinking, "I could go for four more years of this shit".; 8/4/20, 9:34 AM
Craig said...: I have doubts that the rich favor Biden.

In my neighborhood, it's the wealthy moms (not dads) that favor Biden. I don't think any of them have bothered to think about how they obtained their comfortable lifestyle or what wrecking the economy might do to it.; 8/4/20, 9:36 AM
Craig said...: The real danger of mail-in voting for Trump is not fraud. It is wives being able to supervise their husband's vote. It's a real problem.; 8/4/20, 9:38 AM
wildswan said...: Don't Cheat in This Election.
What a useless thing to say.
Prepare For Aftermath.
Prepare for Aftermath? Trucks deliver to centralized produce markets and the grocery stores collect from there. If trucks stop delivering to Chicago's produce market, how wide is the impact? Based on my observations, Wisconsin local foods are cheese, corn, carrots, potatoes, cabbage, onions, cranberries and apples. A close study has suggested that none of these grow in the winter except cheese. So we need the trucks.; 8/4/20, 9:48 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Here We Go: 2020 Democratic Platform Embraces 'Structural Reform' Power Grab on the Judiciary

Obama's Stump speech at the funeral made mention of the radical left's plans.; 8/4/20, 9:57 AM
Craig said...: Open support for Biden is mostly about signaling to others that you are in the upper class.; 8/4/20, 9:57 AM
stlcdr said...: "likeability" is not a requirement for president; indeed, I see it as a negative.; 8/4/20, 9:59 AM
Bruce Hayden said...: “You mean like people who were making millions out of covering for billionaire kleptocrats in Ukraine by making up a bullshit impeachment and steadfastly pretending that they were on the side of right when it was all just a cover up for Ciaramella’s cronies and for the fact that Ukraine had invented evidence against Trump’s campaign manager at the behest of Democrats. You know, solicited foreign election interference.”

To be fair, some of the supposed Russian meddling in the 2016 election turns out to have actually mostly been by a Russian National, with strong ties to Brookings, and, thus, the Clintons, here in the US. Steele’s Primary Subsource was apparently Igor Danchenko, a Russian national who had worked for Fiona Hill at the Brookings Institute (run by Strobe Talbot, Deputy Sec of State under Bill Clinton) as an analyst several years earlier. Much of his information that he supplied to Steele was “bar talk”, mostly probably around vodka bottles with other Russians, in bars mostly in DC. Some of it was from Russians back in Russia, but none of them appear to have been highly placed in the Russian government.

Think of it for a minute - Crooked Hillary and the DNC were funding Fusion GPS, which was funding Christopher Steele, who was paying Igor Danchenko to go out drinking in Georgetown with his Russian drinking buddies, and their fanciful bar talk, bought and paid for by Clinton and the DNC, ended up as the justification for Crossfire Hurricane, four FISA warrants on Carter Page, and the multi year Mueller SC investigation.; 8/4/20, 10:01 AM
Jupiter said...: "They need to set up a "Biden cam" similar to the Washington eagle cam. Then everyone can stay glued to the monitors for any signs of life or movement. It'll make national news when Biden goes to the mailbox."

Althouse wouldn't watch.; 8/4/20, 10:09 AM
DanTheMan said...: >>Prepare For Aftermath.

Good advice. I'm selling all my stocks and funds in October, in anticipation of a Biden fraudulent win.
If by some miracle Trump wins, I'll miss out on few months of dividends and a market bump.

If Biden wins it's all downhill for a while. The market hates uncertainty, and a senile President who hides in the White House will scare the hell out of most every investor.

BTW, I fully expect the D's to tax 401k's, under the "you 'rich' people didn't pay taxes on that money when you invested it, so we're going to 'level the playing field'"

All Dem economic policies have the same foundation: Take money from people who likely vote R and give it to people likely to vote D.; 8/4/20, 10:10 AM
Iman said...: where Biden hidin’?
cognitive decline bad…BAD!!!
there is no there there; 8/4/20, 10:13 AM
mikee said...: There is an 800 pound gorilla about to choose where to sit in this election. He is accompanied into the room by a highly visible pachyderm. Objective reality requires voters to admit that Joe Biden has dementia. Nothing else matters regarding the Democratic Party's campaign for the Presidency. Everyone sees it and knows it is true. Some still refuse to admit Joe has dementia.

The gorilla will choose a seat. The elephant will not be ignored. And Joe Biden's dementia will be the sole issue this November.; 8/4/20, 10:26 AM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: tim in vermont ... “hysterical”

It is not 'voter suppression' to make fun of Trump's failures, as a president and a human being, any more than it is a bad thing to poke fun at Bob Dylan's singing. It is “hysterical” to make such a claim.; 8/4/20, 10:27 AM
Ice Nine said...: The Democracy Institute - the organization that conducted this poll - is a libertarian outfit. True libertarians tend to dislike Republicans and Democrats equally, so I think their poll is likely to be unbiased, at least much more unbiased than all the other polls you see. Additionally, they have endeavored to find the "Shy Tory" voter - what they reasonably call the Shy Trump voter. Their methodology for doing that (described in the Breitbart article on this) seems pretty valid, though they surely won't be able to unveil them all in their polling sample - which would make Trump's margin even higher in actual fact.

"Shy Tory" effect was very much at work in the 2016 election and simply has to be even more in effect now when openly supporting Trump can get you beaten or your house burned down. There is reason then for hope for Trump in November.

I've long thought that it would be a Trump landslide - back before the black COVID swan floated by. Then, because of the pandemic and the MSM's monopolistic ability to blame it on Trump, I began to despair. The riots and the Democrat-approved crime and mayhem have given me new hope, however. I simply do not believe that that has not put off huge numbers of voters. I'm therefore starting to get all landslidey again (if, that is, the Democrats' plans for massive voter fraud can be thwarted).; 8/4/20, 10:27 AM
exiledonmainstreet, green-eyed devil said...: It is wives being able to supervise their husband's vote. It's a real problem.

8/4/20, 9:38 AM

Huh? Do wives follow their husbands into the voting booth? Demand to see their ballots before it's fed into the scanner? I've never seen that happen at any polling place.

Any man who lets his wife "supervise' his vote is a hopeless wuss and thus is undoubtedly a Democrat anyway.; 8/4/20, 10:44 AM
Mr Wibble said...: Objective reality requires voters to admit that Joe Biden has dementia. Nothing else matters regarding the Democratic Party's campaign for the Presidency. Everyone sees it and knows it is true. Some still refuse to admit Joe has dementia.

The gorilla will choose a seat. The elephant will not be ignored. And Joe Biden's dementia will be the sole issue this November.

My fear is that enough voters decide that Biden is so far gone that there's no way he'd actually be allowed to take office, so they assume that a vote for Biden is a vote for his VP to take office. However, because Biden is still the nominal candidate, he serves as a shield against any in depth look into the VP selection. In essence, everyone "knows" that Biden is going to be gone soon after the election, but if Trump tries to go after the VP candidate the media and left will respond, "Biden is the nominee! Why are you obsessed with her? Racist! Sexist!" Additionally, the protection from the media will leave the VP candidate a blank slate, ala Obama, and thus make her more appealing to voters when compared to Trump, about whom everyone has an opinion.; 8/4/20, 10:44 AM
Rusty said...: Rory said...
"Trump voters said they were comfortable with people knowing how they’d vote, compared to 83 percent for Biden."

It's so odd to think of how many people you know who are adopting public positions solely because they want others to know that they hold those positions. Like a peacock's tail....

Most people aren't going to tell you because they don't want to be beaten with a bike lock.; 8/4/20, 10:47 AM
Big Mike said...: Podesta pushing for Biden to refuse to concede and for WESTERN STATES TO SUCCEED to stop a second Trump term

@MJB Wolf, the three Pacific coastal states will neither secede nor succeed.; 8/4/20, 10:48 AM
Jaq said...: So the rest of my post about the Kleptocratic party and their corruption stands as written and undisputed then, ARM?

Color me shocked that you refuse to engage on Biden’s corruption or even impeachment. Polls always “tighten” at the end, meaning that they have to stop skewing them when the election gets close. I could quote again that email that Wikileaks published about gaming the polls to favor Democrats and dispirit Republicans, but what’s the use? It’s not like you are here for honest debate here anymore than the low wattage set who talk about “face diapers” or straw-man bashers like Berkel.

ARM can skip reading here, since he will ignore it, I want to save him the time. Here is a sample, which Google refused to find, and I had to go to DuckDuckGo.

In Florida — make sure the sample's not too old has enough African-American and Hispanic voters. And on independents, when it comes to the cities of Tampa and Orlando, those are better persuasion targets than North or South Florida. So go to Tampa or Orlando first. So if you essentially bake the cake that way, you're going to wind up with better numbers.. - Democratic consultant to media polling firm.

BTW, the email included an attachment with detailed poll cooking instructions. Media polls are mostly gaslighting aimed at Repubican voters.

When I tried to find the above email with Google, it struck wikileaks from my search terms even when I added a ‘+’ at the front to force it. But don’t worry, big tech is just interested in informing voters!; 8/4/20, 11:15 AM
Jaq said...: Incidentally, polls thus cooked gave Hillary a 95% chance of winning and most of the “hysterics” I saw have been from the losers in that election.; 8/4/20, 11:20 AM
Inga said...: Trump is done, thank goodness. The more interviews he gives, the better.; 8/4/20, 11:28 AM
Jaq said...: I think my favorite example, one of many from Democrats, was 'Net Neutrality’ where the Silicon Vally billionaires tried to wrest control of the comms networks on which they had built their fabulous, never before seen in history, wealth away from the people who had built those networks by their own sweat and investment and risk of their own money. You guys, like good little useful idiots screamed from the rooftops that if Obama’s favor to the tech billionaires was rescinded, the world would end! Why? Because the people who owned the networks might hide information from us! That was the actual stated fear. And here Google is striking selected terms from my search like “Wikileaks” just this morning.

It’s almost like the battle was for consolidation of the power to hide information from the electorate.; 8/4/20, 11:31 AM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: will not fire competent aids and replace them grifters.

Finally R/V gets it (if only subliminally)! Trump fires incompetent advisers and replaces the grifters.; 8/4/20, 11:51 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Unhinged:

Check out the democrats in the street yelling at the normal folks on the sidewalk.; 8/4/20, 11:56 AM
Bob Smith said...: Bruce Hayden said:

“ Think of it for a minute - Crooked Hillary and the DNC were funding Fusion GPS, which was funding Christopher Steele, who was paying Igor Danchenko to go out drinking in Georgetown with his Russian drinking buddies, and their fanciful bar talk, bought and paid for by Clinton and the DNC, ended up as the justification for Crossfire Hurricane, four FISA warrants on Carter Page, and the multi year Mueller SC investigation.”

What’s worse than this. Millions of Americans who are otherwise responsible adults, who manage their personal lives responsibly, fell for it. All because their two bit grifter lost an election she was supposed to win. Shameful.; 8/4/20, 11:57 AM
Gospace said...: Just about two weeks to go before the Democrats tell us at their convention who will be their 2020 presidential candidate.

A lot of people are still thinking it won't be Biden- but who? Hillary for Round 2? Michelle? Dictator Cuomo? They've got no good choices.

If Trump, God forbid, drops dead- there's Kristi Noem- who, at the moment, is very popular among Republicans and Conservatives who actually pay attention.; 8/4/20, 12:05 PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Big Mike thanks for SECEDE.; 8/4/20, 12:11 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Tim in Vermont tells you how most of these polling organizations work using their own e-mails with the DNC. Most of them actively try to suppress Republican enthusiasm. The main problem is that the Democrats start believing their own bullshit more than the Republicans believe it, and the effect is either a wash, or the marginal Democrat voter sits it out thinking their vote isn't needed.

I was polled a couple of weeks ago for the first time in a very long time for a national presidential poll (I have probably been called more than that, but don't answer the phone if I don't recognize the number, but have changed that for this polling season). Now, I don't mind telling pollsters that I will vote for Trump in November, but I lied on every single question outside the demographic ones just out of pure malice I have for the profession. I will continue to do so until the day I die.; 8/4/20, 12:21 PM
I Callahan said...: Any man who lets his wife "supervise' his vote is a hopeless wuss and thus is undoubtedly a Democrat anyway.

Agreed, but I think he was talking about mail-in voting, which certainly means wives can see who their husbands voted for. That said, it can go the other way as well, so maybe this isn’t such a problem.; 8/4/20, 12:23 PM
Francisco D said...: mikee said...
Joe Biden's dementia will be the sole issue this November.

I continue to believe that Joe will not be the Dem candidate in November.

They will replace him after the convention.; 8/4/20, 12:28 PM
Craig said...: exiled @10:44: I was talking about mail-in voting, where the ballot would presumably be filled out at home.

And yes, the "shy Trump supporters" include many husbands who have wives with TDS.; 8/4/20, 12:45 PM
Dangerous Dreamer said...: "only 27 percent of Trump voters said they were comfortable with people knowing how they’d vote, compared to 83 percent for Biden"

That seems important...; 8/4/20, 12:52 PM
Krumhorn said...: This just confirms the frantic conduct of the lefties who have not been acting with the quiet confidence that would be expected if the MSM polls were even close to accurate. More likely, their internal polling shows a whuppin. And why wouldn’t that be the case?

- Russian hoax
- Mueller Mueller Bueller
- Kavanaugh hearings and the Blasey Ford Hag
- Antifa
- riots
- defund the police
- systemic racism
- White Fragility
- White Privilege
- Corrupt FBI, Peter Strozk and Lisa
- Illegal aliens
- foaming-at-the-mouth TrumpHate
- Resist by any means necessary
- Pelosi
- IMPEACHMENT

Why indeed?

- Krumhorn; 8/4/20, 12:52 PM
Gk1 said...: None of the house lefties want to engage Biden's obvious dementia issue but to be honest what can they say at this point? Their only talking point is to blame Trump for a pandemic that started and was spread from China. Sad!; 8/4/20, 1:10 PM
Char Char Binks, Esq. said...: Ex, wives supervising votes is probably about mail-in ballots. Maybe that kind of thing happens more than thought.; 8/4/20, 1:14 PM
Howard said...: "I keek a touchdown" ---Garo Ypremian; 8/4/20, 1:14 PM
Greg The Class Traitor said...: Francisco D said...
I continue to believe that Joe will not be the Dem candidate in November.
They will replace him after the convention.

Who is the "they" here?

So long as Biden's "advisors" think he will win, they that a strong incentive to keep him on. Because it will mean power, money, and influence for them and their family members if they're running the President of the US.

If you're a powerful Democrat who isn't part of the Biden camp, but you think Biden can beat Trump, are you going to upset the current setup?

Or are you going to negotiate a cut for yourself in exchange for not rocking the boat?

This is what happens when your party is about power, rather than about patriotism and love of country.

The only people who can get rid of Biden right now, are power who only care about themselves, their families, and maybe their "tribe". It's "identity politics" all the way down.

If you're on the Biden gravy train, then dumping Biden as the nominee, before the convention, costs you everything. After the convention, you might be able to cut a deal with the VP. but the VP will have her own hangers on. So you're likely to, at best, end up in line behind all of them.

Much better to tell yourself that "of course Trump is going to lose", and keep on doing "weekend at Bernies" with Biden.

There is no "they". There are individuals, who have their own incentives. And for the vast majority of our political class, those incentives are strictly personal.; 8/4/20, 1:17 PM
Greg The Class Traitor said...: Trump won the GOP nomination in 2016 because the "GOP Establishment" felt is was "better to lose with Trump, than to win with Cruz." Because President Cruz would have ripped up their sinecures, and made them do their phones baloney jobs, and would have had a whole horde of fanatical followers to appoint to positions to actually get things done.

So long as Biden is "winning" in the polls, there's no chance the DNC will dump him, because for the individuals running the show on the Democrat side, they're better off with a figurehead President from their Party; 8/4/20, 1:38 PM
mikee said...: Trump can win New York if he pounds DeBlasio on crime and Cuomo on being a whiny bitch about COVID, who also killed thousands of nursing home patients. Trump in a landslide, bigly.; 8/4/20, 1:39 PM
RobinGoodfellow said...: “
Blogger Dave Begley said...
No outlier.

My 40 state win for Trump is looking good.”

That is interesting. I predict Trump with 30 states. Forty would be great!; 8/4/20, 1:45 PM
RobinGoodfellow said...: “
Blogger Michael K said...
A post like this sure brings out the lefties.

The whole election issue comes down to whether the Democrats can generate enough fraudulent votes to overcome the Trump voters. The mail-in ballots will help.”

Yes, Trump has to overcome the “margin of fraud.”; 8/4/20, 1:50 PM
Francisco D said...: Greg The Class Traitor said... Who is the "they" here?

I should have been clearer. They is the DNC.

I agree that Biden's advisors have very strong incentives to keep him in the race. However, the DNC is more powerful and has other races to consider. If people see that Biden is a drooling idiot in the debates, it will depress Democrat turnout in quite a few states.; 8/4/20, 2:06 PM
DavidUW said...: Biden's advisors will simply move to grift on the real nominee. While they might have less power over a person with full faculties, some power is better than no power with a Biden loss.; 8/4/20, 2:28 PM
Gospace said...: Mr Wibble said...

My fear is that enough voters decide that Biden is so far gone that there's no way he'd actually be allowed to take office, so they assume that a vote for Biden is a vote for his VP to take office. However, because Biden is still the nominal candidate, he serves as a shield against any in depth look into the VP selection. In essence, everyone "knows" that Biden is going to be gone soon after the election, but if Trump tries to go after the VP candidate the media and left will respond, "Biden is the nominee! Why are you obsessed with her? Racist! Sexist!" Additionally, the protection from the media will leave the VP candidate a blank slate, ala Obama, and thus make her more appealing to voters when compared to Trump, about whom everyone has an opinion.

Doesn't work that way. A severe and quick mental decline- as Biden is currently suffering, often is accompanied by a severe and quick physical decline with endpoint death. SO let's game out a few scenarios- involving that quaint little Constitution thingie we have.

Let's start with- a few weeks after election day, after numerous court battles, the "votes" are finally counted and certified and Biden has eked out a minimal electoral college victory- less then 5 EVs. Then- he ends up in the hospital- on his deathbed- less then a week before the electoral college meets. It's obvious he's going to die before the votes are counted by the Senate. So the Democrat party tells all the delegates- vote for- Hillary, let's say. Multiple problems immediately arise. One- many states require, by law, that delegates vote for the person they're pledged for- and the SC just upheld punishment for those that don't. You only need 5 to vote for someone else- and the selected candidate doesn't win. Immediately the House assembles and votes. Currently-26 states have a house member majority of Republicans. A close election- it will probably stay that way. One vote per state. Remember- close, contested election, with lots of evidence of fraud resulting in court decisions I can guarantee no one is happy with. Trump is reelected 26-24- with a Democrat VP, and Democrats explode in anger. Too bad, so sad.

Now- close election again- same scenario, but Biden is alive and apparently healthy when the EC meets. And he drops dead the next day. Assume absolutely no faithless electors. (Note- the Democrats should ensure at LEAST 1- and you'll see why.) When the votes are counted in the Senate- no one wins- because only eligible people can win, and corpses aren't eligible. They can vote in Democrat states, but can't assume office. So the vote goes to the House. And the Constitution is quite clear on who can be voted for- the House can select from any of the top 3 contenders in the electoral vote. Remember- there were no faithless electors- the ONLY person that can be voted for is Trump. If 26 states representatives are still controlled by Republicans- 26-24. If not- then we have the first real constitutional crisis since the Great Unpleasantness that started in 1860. The House's only duty until it elects a President from the constitution approved list is to continue to debate and vote daily until they select a President. Out of the one available candidate.... If they don't, then on March 4, the elected VP becomes ACTING president until the House chooses. And the House cannot conduct any other business. And the ACTING POTUS cannot choose a VP because- they're the ACTING POTUS until the House elects a POTUS. And they can't conduct any other business until they do. Democrats, as I said, should ensure at least one faithless elector....

The Dems have 2 weeks to decide who his replacement is. Once he's nominated- the closer it gets to election day- the harder it is to replace him.; 8/4/20, 2:31 PM
JAORE said...: We may not have passed peak Biden. But Biden has passed peak Biden.; 8/4/20, 3:16 PM
Michael K said...: Blogger Howard said...
"I keek a touchdown" ---Garo Ypremian

Actually, that was Dick Butkus giving his impression of Garo.; 8/4/20, 3:28 PM
Robert Cook said...: I won't be surprised at all if the Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory through their persistent and corrupt games-playing and efforts to expel any progressive candidates and programs from their platform.

Any yet, we are told by the Dems we must vote for their walking/talking pile of shit shaped like a person because he or she is somehow "better" (well, less rotten) than the Republican walking/talking pile of shit shaped like a person, in order to "save" America. Too late! We're already lost.; 8/4/20, 3:48 PM
Robert Cook said...: "None of the house lefties want to engage Biden's obvious dementia issue but to be honest what can they say at this point?"

I'm more than ready to state that Biden appears to be cognitively unfit to serve in office, and that the Dems are trying to keep him under wraps to conceal his mental infirmity. The Republicans are happy to let Trump display his lack of fitness to serve in office, because, really...who do they have to put forth who is any less terrible? At least the rubes like Trump, which serves the Republicans.; 8/4/20, 3:57 PM
Birkel said...: I hope Robert Cook has the chance to live like a communist before he does.
I want him to have exactly what he pretends to want for me.; 8/4/20, 4:21 PM
Greg The Class Traitor said...: Blogger Francisco D said...
Greg The Class Traitor said... Who is the "they" here?
I should have been clearer. They is the DNC.

I agree that Biden's advisors have very strong incentives to keep him in the race. However, the DNC is more powerful and has other races to consider. If people see that Biden is a drooling idiot in the debates, it will depress Democrat turnout in quite a few states.

The problems I see with this:

1: If they start a fight about Biden's mental competency, but lose, they've definitely deep-sixes their election chances

2: The DNC went all out to make Biden the nominee. What happens to them if they reverse course?

3: Who do they replace him with? Everyone else other than Sanders utterly sucked during the Primary. That is, after all, why the DNC worked so hard to throw it to Biden. If they toss Biden before teh convention, and do NOT give it to Sanders, they can kiss the Bernie vote goodbye in Nov.

So long as Biden continues to "lead in teh polls", I can't see them doing anything to rock the boat.; 8/4/20, 4:22 PM
gadfly said...: Patrick Basham founded the Democracy Institute think tank. In 2016, according to the UK Express, he supposedly was the only public pollster to predict both Brexit and Donald Trump’s Electoral College victory - but he never conducted a public poll. Since 2016, Basham has worked with Canada's Frazier Institute on interesting subjects such as second-hand smoke, e-cigarettes and cryptocurrencies, but no polling.

538.com's rating of public polling agencies does not include the Democracy Institute. Methinks the Democracy Institute poll is a publicity gimmick designed to get a new think tank some substantial financial backing with the help of a weekly Brit newspaper, the Sunday Express - which has published only three of these polls that neither define the mix of those polled nor what exact questions were asked.; 8/4/20, 4:23 PM
Greg The Class Traitor said...: DavidUW said...
Biden's advisors will simply move to grift on the real nominee. While they might have less power over a person with full faculties, some power is better than no power with a Biden loss.

Why would the real nominee help them grift? Any potential nominee already has a bunch of grifters following like remoras in his / her wake.

The pie is limited, and if Biden isn't teh nominee, then Biden's pie eaters are going to be on the outside, looking in; 8/4/20, 4:25 PM
DanTheMan said...: >>I won't be surprised at all if the Dems snatch defeat from the jaws of victory through their persistent and corrupt games-playing

At least you admit they are corrupt. Or are you saying they are only corrupt against other D's, and would never be corrupt against Republicans?

It does seem that D's are the party of vote fraud, and that is not a recent development.; 8/4/20, 6:59 PM
Robert Cook said...: "I hope Robert Cook has the chance to live like a communist before he does.

I want him to have exactly what he pretends to want for me."

How odd that you think our tax money being used to enrich arms manufacturers and crooked bankers is A-OK, but having the government route more (much more) of that money--our money--to programs that will benefit "we, the people," is "communism" (sic).

How is our pouring billions or trillions of the people's treasure into the pockets of crooked bankers and price-gouging arms manufacturers, (to name only two of the parasites on the people's treasure) not "communism" (sic), while suggesting our money be spent on programs to benefit the people is "communism" (sic).

I think you may be a useful idiot for the corporate crooks putting your money into their pockets.; 8/4/20, 7:16 PM
Robert Cook said...: "At least you admit they are corrupt. Or are you saying they are only corrupt against other D's, and would never be corrupt against Republicans?"

The Dems are corrupt, and the Republicans are corrupt. They will play dirty games with each other for respective party advantage, but they both shit on the people. I find the Dems support the Republicans in their policy proposals more often than vice versa. The Republicans should ask (about the Dems), "With enemies like them, who needs friends?"; 8/4/20, 7:28 PM
Banjo said...: As a subscriber to the Observer (US) I can tell you Freddy Grey did a 180-degree in one day. He was aligned with the America media on Trump's unelectability in light of the suppression polls published daily, and then the Rasmussen Poll, which predicted Trump's win four years ago, came out to confute the bubble dwellers. Suddenly, Freddy saw a stumbling block or two in Biden's march to victory. These foreign journalists come over and are quickly subsumed by the natives. It's like the Borg.; 8/4/20, 7:44 PM