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२१० टिप्पण्या:
«सर्वात जुने ‹थोडे जुने 210 पैकी 201 – 210"Seriously, I was told on Mar. 26—by a fucking epidemiologist no less, credentialled and all—that without mandatory mass quarantines across the country, we’d be looking at a minimum infection rate of 20% (“unrealistically optimistic”) with people aged 20-65 hospitalized at a “conservative” rate of 25% or more (that rate was already easily refuted by contemporaneous data)—16 million working-age Americans hospitalized over a short span of time, with many more too sick to work but unhospitalized, rather than spread out over the 12–18 months it would take to develop a vaccine. This more than justified 3.3 million new unemployed in a week, which wouldn’t be as much of a problem had we a stronger social safety net for them. How many things wasn’t she accounting for? Ongoing significant selection bias in the testing data, a false choice between doing nothing and mandatory mass quarantines (no, she said, that just depends on whether people will voluntarily mass quarantine!), faulty and improbable generalizations from the Diamond Princess, and lack of any consideration for future economic impacts and unemployment from ongoing mass quarantines (I sarcastically suggested an exponential model that got up to 25 million by week 6—oops, too optimistic)."
Thanks for saying that, Kyjo. It's important to remember how we got here. Right now all of that is being airbrushed away.
If we had it documented clearly as to why, really, the economic shutdown actually happened, the reasoning and fears behind it, and I think this epidemiologist is a fair representation, then we can lay out point by point how this not proved to be at true, and that in fact it is ridiculously far from what has happened, and why we need to stop this shutdown now.
"Did the shorts & newsreels start right away?"
I think you're asking if these would start right after the end of the previous movie? No, there would be a little interval to get one crowd out, the next crowd in, the ushers would take a little walk through with a broom and that little dust pan that snapped open and closed to pick up anything egregious.
Time could vary quite a bit. If it was a popular movie, they'd squeeze in as many shows as they could, so it might be 10 minutes. If less popular, they might time it to the next half hour.
I think that theaters always had a policy that they could clear a theater for the next audience, but don't recall it happening. I remember staying and watching a few minutes that I had missed when I went in. I was recently in a conversation with my sister, who said she and her friends had stayed and watched A Hard Day's Night several times on one admission, and that was a popular movie.
I do find it interesting that some people are prepared to express outrage over some people getting the magnitude of the problem wrong while ignoring that others spent the entire month of February saying this was a hoax that wouldn't have any effect here.
There may have been a few that made that claim. Normal for any event. Crazies on both end of the spectrum. (20 million dead, ring any bells?) But what I saw was a significant number predicting the response to this event is the hoaxM marching closer to that prediction by the day.
@1:21
Overly focusing on the mortality rate is a mistake,
Mortality, until this week was the only provable number we had, thats all changed with assumed COD's now in play.
So exactly what statistic(s) are the true metric? Contagious, or lethal? Mortality, results to date suggest neither is very scary.
Rory said...I think that theaters always had a policy that they could clear a theater for the next audience
see? that's how I remember it, was that they'd clean, kick out; etc...
But; according to the cliche... People used to come in in the middle, and stay
And I do NOT remember that
What I remember (back in the drug crazed '80's, when i was a teenager...
Was getting up right before it was done; and sneaking into a different movie (at the cineplex), and watching That one too; at least until the mushrooms wore off
But coming into the theater in the middle; THAT'S WHAT I DON'T REMEMBER
I'm guessing that it was a '30's thing; you didn't have a/c, they did... you went asap
@1:21
Overly focusing on the mortality rate is a mistake
I believe they refer to That, as: Moving the Goalposts : )
I was raised to believe that leaving anything other than footprints and taking anything other than pictures was the standard for outdoor activities, so in my old age I enjoy knocking over artfully stacked rocks at scenic locations. That small stone looks like it would be a fine skipping stone, as far into the lake as I could toss it. Curmudgeons, start your grumbling!
"What I remember (back in the drug crazed '80's, when i was a teenager...
Was getting up right before it was done; and sneaking into a different movie"
I've did this, and still am willing to move from one theater to another if the movie I bought the ticket for turns out to stink.
The last movie I remember staying and watching the first few minutes of is the animated Lord of the Rings from the late 70s.
The Ralph Bakshi travesty. Not even drugs could make us like that one.
We never did the start-in-the-middle and wait for the next showing, and they wouldn't have let us anyway--as noted, they were supposed to clean between screenings.
Narr
Punctual to a fault
Another rock suggested: don't worry, be happy. Another rock yet: chaos ("evolution") is tempered by the prudent and bold.
Oh, I certainly remember I'm Okay, You're Okay at least in the sense that I recall for a certain cohort of people it was the Bible and marijuana and fornication between two paper covers, cheap, not that I ever read it; one knew intuitively that it was replete with nonsense. I see at Wikipedia that Thomas Harris 'was an early advocate for group therapy', responsible therefore, perhaps, for countless comic and pseudo-comic episodes on television and in the movies.
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