१३ मार्च, २०२०

"I would recommend that people minimize social contact, and that means limiting all social engagements. That includes intimate gatherings among friends."

"I think the exception is if two households are in strict agreement that they are also going to reduce all outside contact and then those two households socialize together, to support one another. I can see social and mental-health advantages to that kind of approach."

From "The Dos and Don’ts of ‘Social Distancing’/Experts weigh in on whether you should cancel your dates, dinner parties, and gym sessions" in The Atlantic.

I've highlighted what one of 3 experts said.

The other 2 were less restrictive. One said, small gatherings "are probably okay as long as nobody has symptoms, respiratory symptoms." The other calls small gatherings "a gray zone" and recommending "not sitting very close, trying to keep distance. Wash your hands; avoid touching your face.... routinely disinfect... doorknobs, the bathroom faucets, those types of things... practicing good hygiene."

२६२ टिप्पण्या:

«सर्वात जुने   ‹थोडे जुने   262 पैकी 201 – 262
Michael K म्हणाले...

Somebody tell Inga this is not a chronic disease.

Inga म्हणाले...
ही टिप्पणी लेखकाना हलविली आहे.
rhhardin म्हणाले...

Supposing everybody gets the disease, count the fatalities and divide by the (previous) population.

That will be a smaller number than along-the-way estimates because undeterced infection will be counted as non-fatals rather than non-infected.

Ignorance is Bliss म्हणाले...

Browndog said...

My only point is the facts on the ground are not matching the predictions.

Complaints about the quality of the models being used are quite reasonable. Complaints about using models are not.

Testing doesn't slow the virus, keep you out of the hospital, and save your life.
Testing doesn't slow the virus inside the person being tested, keep the person being tested out of the hospital, or save the life of the person being tested. But testing can result in the tested person being quarantined, which slows the spread of the virus, keeps other people out of the hospital, and maybe saves your life.

Are we destroying our country because people are probably going to get sick, or hundreds of thousands are going to die?

Pick one.


So we are planning for the future now? Okay, I'll go get my model.

Inga म्हणाले...

“Somebody tell Inga this is not a chronic disease.”

No kidding. I posted the link to calculating the fatality rate to help people understand why it’s done DURING the outbreak. Do you seriously think I consider Covid is a chronic disease? I hate to be rude, but you sound senile. That doesn’t even begin to make sense from everything I’ve said on this thread or other threads about Covid19.

Achilles म्हणाले...

Dust Bunny Queen said...
Achilles. We do know how many people are dying and how many are sick though.

Do we?

We sure are shutting down schools and closing work and generally making a mess of things over something.

The numbers are all being reported.

There are a lot of people generally accepting These numbers.

I will agree this shit doesn't add up. The flu is at this moment killing and causing illness in 2 orders of magnitude more people every day.

Something else is going on. Given the history of the media over the last 4 years I trust them less than I trust China.

Inga म्हणाले...

“Case fatality rate is usually calculated for acute infectious diseases.”

Did you just gloss over this Michael K? Seriously, you just look for things to be an ass over.

Michael K म्हणाले...

Did you just gloss over this Michael K? Seriously, you just look for things to be an ass over.

Nope. Just trying to be helpful. Do you get the idea ever that others here are not impressed with your wisdom ? You cut and paste things that have nothing to do with your argument, if any.

Francisco was making an obvious comment. You had to intervene and post what you, wrongly, thought was a correction.

FullMoon म्हणाले...


Especially douchey fucks like Jay Inslee who just shut down all schools for 500000 children over less than a day's worth of flu deaths.

Santa Clara County, California closing schools for three weeks.

Browndog म्हणाले...


So we are planning for the future now? Okay, I'll go get my model.


You seem to be misunderstanding my point, which means I'm not being clear. I think we're arguing over two different things, so I'm just going to let it lay.

Francisco D म्हणाले...

Let me simplify things for people who are confused.

A rate has a numerator and a denominator.

The numerator is the number of people who have died and will die from the coronavirus. Except for data from Iran and China, we can be fairly comfortable with the accuracy of that number because countries record deaths and causes of death. There may be bias towards calling it COVID-19, but let's assume not.

The denominator is the number of people who acquired the coronavirus. We will not have that number until epidemiologists sample the general population. We have no current idea of how many people acquired the virus if they did not present for treatment or testing. In situations like this, the mortality rate typically drops because they find that a lot of people got sick and recovered without seeking medical treatment.

LA_Bob म्हणाले...

I'm curious how we know about the "false positives". The test being used in the US is the PCR, isn't it? How about South Korea? So, is there a "gold standard" test against which the PCR can be measure to tell us about the false positives?

Also, doesn't it make more sense to do an antibody test? Assuming you get adequate sensitivity and specificity and test enough people, wouldn't we have a much better sense of the extent of exposure? Seems like that would be the real tell.

Gk1 म्हणाले...

"Something else is going on. Given the history of the media over the last 4 years I trust them less than I trust China." Ditto.

What this current health crisis tells me, is our media is badly broken and has no credibility. This is a particularly dangerous situation to be in. I have to scavenge for information on the interwebs and do my own research as I know the american media will: A.Over react. B.Blame Trump for anything done or not done. C.Will absolutely forbid reviewing past health crisis for historical comparison or to provide context. D.Uncritically herald Democratic talking points about should have been done.

So we have to muddle through on our own and weigh the risks of contacting this flu by venturing outside the house.

Browndog म्हणाले...

I guess I'm just being a blockhead, but I still think the number of actual dead people is the most important factor.

I noticed nobody is including hospitalizations in their equations. Maybe we have to do more testing to see if that factor is important.

n.n म्हणाले...

What this current health crisis tells me, is our media is badly broken and has no credibility

A social contagion spread by a partisan press.

stevew म्हणाले...

It is erroneous to calculate a mortality rate at this point.

According to the CDC: to date, 1,619 confirmed cases, 41 deaths, 47 jurisdictions reporting. Unknown: total number of infections.

Fact: this is not yet an epidemic and is not expanding rapidly.

Inga continues to demonstrate and prove her ignorance of numbers. Quite good at hyperbole though, aka: propaganda.

Inga म्हणाले...

“I'm curious how we know about the "false positives". The test being used in the US is the PCR, isn't it? How about South Korea?”

I heard the female scientist (can’t recall her name) say it today at the news conference.

Inga म्हणाले...

“Nope. Just trying to be helpful. Do you get the idea ever that others here are not impressed with your wisdom ? You cut and paste things that have nothing to do with your argument, if any.”

Nope, you were trying to be an ass. If you weren’t an ass and if you weren’t senile you’d understand why I posted it. I’m not impressed with your knowledge. Try to be more like C Stanley.

stevew म्हणाले...

Why do you try so hard to stir up discord, propagate fear and disinformation?

LA_Bob म्हणाले...

Inga said, "I heard the female scientist (can’t recall her name) say it today at the news conference."

Maybe I could phrase my question better.

How do the medical people know that their test throws false positives and what the rate is?

Okay, so a possible answer occurs to me. When they tested their test, they received different results after multiple trials on the same test subjects. And a bias was toward positives not confirmed in repeated testing. So, they conclude the test throws false positives. I read someplace this is why they recommend that clinics test each patient twice.

Does anyone know if this is what happened?

Inga म्हणाले...

Michael K,

“Francisco was making an obvious comment. You had to intervene and post what you, wrongly, thought was a correction.”

Try to keep up Michael. Francisco quoted me and directed his comment directly to me. Francisco didn’t understand what I was getting about South Korea having false positive tests and how that could skew the fatality rate to a higher percentage. And then thought he was correcting me by being his typical asshole self, just like you. If you don’t understand my point and assume you know what I’m talking about, but DON’T, then try to correct something I didn’t even say, YOU will get corrected from me and you will be called out on your arrogance and stupidity.

Inga म्हणाले...

“How do the medical people know that their test throws false positives and what the rate is?”

I don’t know and I’ve been looking for more information on it. It would be important to know how many false positives they actually had.

Tomcc म्हणाले...

A friend of mine told me that she's planning a birthday dinner for her mom, who is turning 86. Not a big event, maybe a dozen family members at a restaurant; but some are coming from out of town (like Alaksa out of town). Her sister wants to cancel. My thinking is that, so long as none of the participants are symptomatic, they avoid kissing and take care with hand cleaning, they'll likely be fine. It's worth stating that her mom is a healthy 85.

Inga म्हणाले...

“Fact: this is not yet an epidemic and is not expanding rapidly.”

Fact: it’s a pandemic and it’s epidemic in the US. If wishes were pennies, you’d be rich.

Jim at म्हणाले...

Why do you try so hard to stir up discord, propagate fear and disinformation?

Because she thinks she can benefit politically by doing so.

AllenS म्हणाले...

I'd like to see President Trump take a firmer stance on this Chinese flu bullshit, and order all sports teams to get the fuck back to work. Right now this is some kind of weak flu, so weak that it children aren't getting it.

Some people won't have to buy toilet paper for like 20 years. How embarrassing.

Milwaukie guy म्हणाले...

My household has five people. I was doing our census today

I'm a retired gentleman, still active but not 100%, especially since the Parrot Fever last year and other assorted insults to my lungs. I've been sort of self-quarantining since a feel like a have a slight flu, lethargy and occasional chills, but very slight since I had my double-dose senior flu shot.

Twenty years younger is my best friend and construction partner. He does work around the neighborhood.

Ten years younger still is his girlfriend and fiancé, who works for a program that feeds elderly poor at small locations, many of whom have poor hygiene.

Another four years younger is my son, who works on the big tourist/party ship on the Willamette, and has had two shifts cancelled due to big private cruises cancelled.

Another seven years on is my son's fiancé, who works face-to-face with the public at a bank.

As our home is our fortress, we wipe the doorknobs when we come in and then wash our hands. That's the portcullis.


FullMoon म्हणाले...

"Never let a crisis go to waste"

Glad Trump took Rahms advice to heart. Streamlining process to gets test kits and vaccines into production. Getting rid of regulations and bypassing bureaucracy that prevented quick progress.

even Pelosi and her gang rolled over and quickly compromised when they saw how serious and popular response to Trumps presser is.

Democratic party, lovers of slavery and welfare dependence. Guilty of breaking up traditional families. Murderers of the unborn. Wholesalers of baby body parts, are done for. May take a few election cycles but the writing is on the wall.

Not only the country, but the entire world will be the better for it. Trump landslide in November, more flexibility after election and more progress for the greatest country ever to exist on the earth. Minorities will finally be free from the chains of poverty and governmental dependence created by LBJ and perpetuated through the decades of lies and propaganda by the filthy , corrupt, leftist politicians. A change is coming...

FullMoon म्हणाले...

Bernie says he would not close borders. Would gather together scientist and researchers to study the problem, then deliberate before acting.

While Bernie drooling stupidity from his fat lips, Trump is already making plans and decisions. Life long politition used to sitting around bullshitting with other pols as opposed to businessman who gets all the best architects, planners and contractors together and makes a plan. No contest.

President Donald Trump vs Joe (corn pop hairy leg Biden, who trashes Trumps plan and then plagiarizes it all on the same website.

Slo Joe, who is limited by his handlers to maximum ten minute speech. He gonna back out of debate with Bernie, or he gonne be jacked up on speed with a little bit of tranquilizer to even him out. Watch and see. Joe either gonna smile and be too happy like an idiot , or gonna get confused with his practiced answers and expose himself as the tired old man he is.

Milwaukie guy म्हणाले...

The how not to touch your face reminds of the old cowboy joke.

Two cowboys are riding the dusty trail on a sweltering day. One cowboy's lips are getting all cracked and he keeps licking his lips for relief. He asks the other, how come your lips ain't all chapped? The other says, I don't lick my lips. How do you do that? the first asks. Well, when I'm saddling my horse in the morning I go around and kiss her on the asshole.

roger म्हणाले...

Don’t be foolish and downplay what this thing is. Learn from countries that have had huge outbreaks and how their hospitals and health care systems and equipment like ventilators have been overcome. Watch some documentaries, learn something. Don’t be selfish and complain that your favorite venues and activities have been cancelled. Your life and those of the vulnerable people in your life are more important, aren’t they? Those who stick their head in the sand won’t see what’s coming.

Tell me what the words Dismissive Condescension mean.

Michael K म्हणाले...

Inga is her usual charming ignorant self.

stevew म्हणाले...

Epidemic, in the US? Hardly.

Facts, sweetheart, just facts.

walter म्हणाले...

Sure Allen,
Forced work sounds like a great small guv solution.

Inga म्हणाले...

“Why do you try so hard to stir up discord, propagate fear and disinformation?”

“Because she thinks she can benefit politically by doing so.”

What would I gain politically? Am I running for some office?

Inga म्हणाले...

“Inga is her usual charming ignorant self.”

Michael is his usual asshole senile self.

mockturtle म्हणाले...
ही टिप्पणी लेखकाना हलविली आहे.
mockturtle म्हणाले...

Michael K asserts: Inga, most of your comment was correct but this is not,. This virus is found commonly in bats.

Actually, the original form of this virus was found in bats but this version has four amino acids added to it, as I understand it. The 'wet market' theory has, I believe, been debunked.

Inga म्हणाले...

So why did Trump declare a national emergency? ALL you Covid19 pandemic deniers should call the White House and give him a piece of your mind.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves म्हणाले...

I would say - yes indeed.

stevew म्हणाले...

No one here denies the pandemic. No one here denies the relative seriousness of the virus. What is challenged is the overall risk and state of panic as promoted by you and othets. The numbers and facts do not support your assertions.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

Can't we all just get along? [a nod to Rodney King]

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves म्हणाले...

"The Wuhan Virus is a real danger, but the media has weaponized it in a sick desire to destroy @realDonaldTrump
and is happy to destroy America in the process. Americans must reject the globalist politics of the mainstream press."

Inga म्हणाले...

“What is challenged is the overall risk and state of panic as promoted by you and othets.”

What panic? I don’t even wash my tennis shoes! If talking about the virus makes you feel panic, then grow up, be a man. Get your head out of the sand. You don’t know anymore than what Trump’s own scientists say about the risks. I’ve followed what his scientists have been saying.

“The numbers and facts do not support your assertions.”

Be specific. What numbers don’t support my “assertions”? And BTW, they aren’t MY assertions, they are Trump’s scientists assertions. Don’t want to believe what they say? Go call the White House and complain.

mockturtle म्हणाले...

Looking at today's numbers, globally, all confirmed cases and deaths, the rate seems to be about 3.7%. In the US it is 1.7% [there were seven new deaths today].

Tomcc म्हणाले...

So our governor has declared that schools in OR should close for the next two weeks. While across the river in WA, they're closed for six weeks.
Who is right?
Seriously, when will we know that it's okay to congregate again? What is the A-Okay sign?

FullMoon म्हणाले...

Link to text of bill is here

President Trump Tweets Support For H.R.6201 – The Families First Coronavirus Response Act – (With Link)

Michael K म्हणाले...

Actually, the original form of this virus was found in bats but this version has four amino acids added to it, as I understand it. The 'wet market' theory has, I believe, been debunked.

That's why I suspect it might have had the genome modified, which made it transmissible to humans. That may have been inadvertent or an attempt to use the bat resistance in some way. There are a whole bunch of papers on the bat virus and why it does not harm the bats. They are in Chinese journals.

For example.

And here.

Drago म्हणाले...

Not even the Washington Post can stomach what Inga and the dems are doing:

"A Joe Biden ad received the worst possible rating from the Washington Post fact-checker for attacking President Donald Trump with manipulated video.

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee received “Four Pinocchios” for an ad that deceptively edited video of a Trump campaign rally to make it appear that the president called the coronavirus a hoax. In the ad, Trump can be seen saying “coronavirus,” followed immediately by “This is their new hoax.”

But as the Post noted, the Biden campaign cut out more than 120 words in between those two statements. In his comments, Trump was calling the Democratic politicization of coronavirus a “hoax,” not the virus itself:"

That's like an average day for Inga and the rest of the Russia Collusion Truthers.

Drago म्हणाले...

The lefties now have to contend with a new reality: According to the WHO, Europe is now the new epicenter for the virus.

This is a problem for the left. The left believes the ChiCom's are awesome and Biden has already said he wants to return to "normal" (where China controls all of our critical supply chains).

Further, the left believes the Europeans are so very sophisticated and super smart and fantastically competent.

But here we have a situation where apparently the rest of the world is doing everything right and Trump is the Worstest of Worst People.....but China and Europe are the ones responsible for letting this thing get out of hand the fastest.

A real conundrum here for the left.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves म्हणाले...

DBQ - there are web-sites with stats, but yeah - who knows if they are accurate. ?

First person to die of Wuhan Virus in CO reported. She was 80 and had other health issues.

Inga म्हणाले...

“Not even the Washington Post can stomach what Inga and the dems are doing”

Point out one comment in this thread in which I criticized Trump. Did you even read this thread before coming here and swooping in with your usual lies and mischaracterizations? What was discussed today regarding the virus was apolitical.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves म्हणाले...

VoTe BIDEN!

mockturtle म्हणाले...

Michael K responds: That's why I suspect it might have had the genome modified, which made it transmissible to humans.

At least one [Chinese] scientist has written that he doesn't believe that the addition of four new amino acids was the result of a natural mutation because mutations are more gradual. Admittedly, I know very little about genetic science but do try to keep abreast of scientific articles. Thank you for the links. Do you no think it at least possible that one of the labs in Wuhan might have been working on a bio-weapon and it was inadvertently released? Or maybe released as a trial balloon?

n.n म्हणाले...

Trump was calling the Democratic politicization of coronavirus a “hoax,”

Trump has rose to the challenge, managed the "deep state" to serve the People and our Posterity, and the state governments have found their footing.

FullMoon म्हणाले...

Trump has rose to the challenge, managed the "deep state" to serve the People and our Posterity, and the state governments have found their footing.

Absolutely. Lead by example, inspire confidence. Takin' care of business every day..

boatbuilder म्हणाले...

A couple of silly questions.

This thing originated in Wuhan, a city of 20 million people. It got out of hand and lots of people got sick and died, and the Chinese government responded by confining those 20 million people in the city where the virus was raging.

Why aren't there a million or more dead from the virus in Wuhan? (and please don't try to tell me that all of those 20 Million people stayed away from each other).

The disease hit Washington state and 20 people in a nursing home died. The people who worked in that nursing home went home to their families; the people who visited did so as well, before anybody knew that the virus was there.

Why isn't Washington state overwhelmed with exponentially increasing cases?

FullMoon म्हणाले...

A couple of silly questions.

This thing originated in Wuhan, a city of 20 million people. It got out of hand and lots of people got sick and died, and the Chinese government responded by confining those 20 million people in the city where the virus was raging.

Why aren't there a million or more dead from the virus in Wuhan? (and please don't try to tell me that all of those 20 Million people stayed away from each other).

The disease hit Washington state and 20 people in a nursing home died. The people who worked in that nursing home went home to their families; the people who visited did so as well, before anybody knew that the virus was there.

Why isn't Washington state overwhelmed with exponentially increasing cases?


Hmm, maybe it is not as infectious as they say..well, that would potentially cause some people to lose faith in the MSM..

LA_Bob म्हणाले...

"Why aren't there a million or more dead from the virus in Wuhan?"

The current guess in China is that the first coronavirus case "emerged" in mid-November. The first patient testing positive showed symptoms on December 8 and is thought to have been exposed on December 1.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-first-covid-19-case-originated-on-november-17-according-to-chinese-officials-searching-for-patient-zero/ar-BB119fWJ

China reported the first case of the disease to WHO on December 31. Meanwhile, the virus has likely been circulating all through Wuhan since early November or sooner. Is it reasonable to think the virus was carried out of China to the rest of the world during this time?

So, why is the body count so thankfully low? It's quite possible many of us have been exposed to it by now and even developed antibodies.

wildswan म्हणाले...

"The disease hit Washington state and 20 people in a nursing home died. The people who worked in that nursing home went home to their families; the people who visited did so as well, before anybody knew that the virus was there.

Why isn't Washington state overwhelmed with exponentially increasing cases?"

The press conference with Trump and the Covid task force kept emphasizing that their goal was to flatten down the curve which indicates how fast the epidemic is spreading. Scial distancing should do that in a few weeks. The presser was very interesting for other reasons. By declaring a national emergency Trump was able to lift all sorts of regulations which were holding up testing and preventing effective use of medical resources. Then he got Google working on a website to tell you where to go for testing - it will be up by Sunday, they hope. And he got private enterprise to work on test sites at Walgrens, Walmart, Target and I think CVS which should also be ready by Sunday in their parking lots as drive thrus. And other groups to process the tests and others who can do home visits. It should all be on the website which Google has 1700 engineers working on so it will be up soon. It was very positive - I have to say that the CDC approach of "nothing can be done for months or even maybe years, meanwhile wash your hands and wonder" was ... unsatisfactory. No wonder people were irrationally collecting toilet paper. This was much better. And another thing emphasized at the presser was to look out for and try to help older people with compromised immune systems. That was very soothing for us geezers. There was a feeling that a lot was getting done and I'm not surprised the stock market shot up. I think everyone was afraid that the deep state was going to take charge, do nothing and kill us all. But no. Foiled again, you villains

Achilles म्हणाले...

Inga said...
“Not even the Washington Post can stomach what Inga and the dems are doing”

Point out one comment in this thread in which I criticized Trump. Did you even read this thread before coming here and swooping in with your usual lies and mischaracterizations? What was discussed today regarding the virus was apolitical.

All your posts for the last month on this topic acting like a fucking jackal are not aging all that well are they?

Achilles म्हणाले...

Unknown said...
A couple of silly questions.

This thing originated in Wuhan, a city of 20 million people. It got out of hand and lots of people got sick and died, and the Chinese government responded by confining those 20 million people in the city where the virus was raging.

Why aren't there a million or more dead from the virus in Wuhan? (and please don't try to tell me that all of those 20 Million people stayed away from each other).

The disease hit Washington state and 20 people in a nursing home died. The people who worked in that nursing home went home to their families; the people who visited did so as well, before anybody knew that the virus was there.

Why isn't Washington state overwhelmed with exponentially increasing cases?



Those aren't silly questions. They are questions any rational person would ask.

They do however make all these bleating sheep uncomfortable.

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