"She's doing better than Kamala Harris. She's the top lady."
"You're the top lady."
"I think Elizabeth Warren is moving. It's a one-step-forward-one-step back motion. I think she's doing a lot, saying things like free college, and that gets some people, but it loses other people, so it looks like no motion, but it is a lot of motion. With Kamala Harris, there's just no motion. She's immobile, nothing's happening. Inert. Stagnant."
"Well, you're not stagnant. You're always going out, walking around, going to Whole Foods."
"Kamala Harris might be going shopping, walking around."
"But I don't see her going shopping. I don't see her on her e-bike. When's the last time she hopped in her car and drove all the way out to Arches?"
Here's a snapshot of the polls (captured at Real Clear Politics)(click to enlarge and clarify):
Posts
134 comments:
You're the top lady.
Pro move. Early in the morning, even...
The stewards diligently studying the race for 5th.
It looks like all the women are running for the VP spot.
Who was ahead in the republican primary in the same time frame for the 2016 race?
Need more traction get better tires.
Politicians like Biden are the reason that Democrats naturally assume that Trump is using his position for personal and family gain.
Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?
Quite an elaborate scenerio to basically brag on your husband.
Top lady!
Give your lady a standing ovation! Great song.
"Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?"
Look at his competition. Grifters, phonies, and race-baiters.
The Dells.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m-n_U65x7Aw
Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?
Because Trump is attacking him, they assume that Trump *must* be afraid of him. I swear Democrats are like children playing soccer, who just follow the ball around in a kind of brownian motion.
The Top Lady needs to chip away at Biden, who remains the Top Man.
Warren seems like someone who is actually mentally unfit to be president.
Why do people support Slow Joe Biden? Because he's not Crazy Bernie, and the Dems just don't trust those women who are running.
https://joebiden.info
The above link is a pretty good précis of his appeal.
I thank The Top Lady for reading The Gray Lady, so I don't have to.
Placeholder while they are hoping someone, anyone of presidential stature will decide to take a hand.
I am amazed Althouse used the phrase “top lady”. Meade garners justifies praise for his swift reply. In other news, can we imagine a future in which Mayor Pete is “top man”?
can we imagine a future in which Mayor Pete is “top man”
I can imagine a future with a 'first laddie'...
So who will be the first to drop out?
Ann, “I’m mad about you Meade.”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XmdtJWmR9zQ
The perfect music video by Belinda Carlisle.
Biden is the most shameless race-baiter of them all. Just yesterday he was telling a group in South Carolina that Jim Crow was coming back to America because of Donald Trump. Jim Crow.... Biden is a fucking piece of garbage. The fact that he and his shitty kid are corrupt thugs is just another facet of his despicableness. Scumbag Democrat party member and crooked Obama henchman, that's what Joe Biden is.
The only thing I like about Warren in the opportunity to use the term "Pocahonky".
So who will be the first to drop out?
You tell us.
“I can imagine a future with a 'first laddie’."
You’ve been saving that one!
:^)
I note that Maggie Thatcher is contacting Joe Biden, not even bothering with top or bottom ladies. They really know the score on the Other Side.
Warren's from MA. If she can't win NH she's done. Maybe she can hold on if she wins Iowa. But polls show Biden building on his announcement bump. Can't see how Warren wins South Carolina or the rest of the South. And Bernie's not gonna win the South. This isn't Bernie's party. It's Obama's party and Biden looks like the heir.
I think Elizabeth Warren is moving.
She's doing the Moonwalk.
Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?
Obamastalgia.
She was running her law office out of her office at Harvard. Did she add that rent savings to her income? Did she fudge rent costs as an expense of her law practice? Perhaps her tax records can be subpoenaed.
can we imagine a future in which Mayor Pete is “top man”
I can imagine a future with a 'first laddie'..
Whoa, Nellie!
Blogger Michael Fitzgerald said...
Biden is the most shameless race-baiter of them all. Just yesterday he was telling a group in South Carolina that Jim Crow was coming back to America because of Donald Trump.
--
Though Kamala doing her best in front of NAACP
Warren's stunt with the DNA test ended her chances. She's polling just a hair over Clinton, who isn't even running. There are a number of Democratic women who could make a run up into double digits -- if they could just get a national story attached to them, like Mayor Pete got, so that poll-respondents would at least recognize their names.
At present, how many voters could name one thing that differentiates Klobuchar from Gillibrand, or name a fifth woman in the race (after those two plus Harris and Warren)?
readering said: So who will be the first to drop out?
I dunno. How many are running now? 25? More? They're still announcing.
Sanders is the only whose last name makes a decent anagram: Ass Nerd
The screenwriter usually doesn’t get any say in picking the music, but I would love to end “Frankenstein, Part II” with Belinda singing “Mad About You.”
Bay, I got my first real request for the script, 95 pages. Nine murders. Three references to the 1931 movie. One fab sex scene. Frau Althouse makes a cameo appearance. daviddbegley@gmail.com
Is this OT?
Amadeus 48 said...
"Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?"
Look at his competition. Grifters, phonies, and race-baiters.
And Joe is all of those, topped off with a generous dollop of creepy senile uncle vibe.
They should put on a fund-raiser performance of Caryl Churchill's Top Girls, with Warren playing Marlene, Harris playing Angie, and Klobuchar playing Joyce.
It would be off-message, but revealing.
Howsoever, "Joe Biden" = I Need Job
Twenty two, at 24 hunger game rules apply.
Right now it’s about fundraising who drops out. No delegates have been won or lost. Bernie can last the whole race and see what happens, so can Joe, so can Kamala. I think Warren is going to have to win early to stay in, just like Butty and Beto. Although Beto has his wealthy family who can doubtless scare up some astroturf style “small donation” noise. (wink wink)
I can only think that Butty is really running for Senate in Indiana.
clint said...how many voters could name one thing that differentiates Klobuchar from Gillibrand
--
Klobuchar needs to come out swinging in her Fox Townhall in Milwaukee tomorrow.
Do you mean two steps Forward, one step back?
One step forward one step back is just vibration. Motion, sort of, but to no useful purpose.
John Henry
I watched that Belinda Carlisle video. That girl has killer cheekbones, among her many admirable assets.
Twenty two, at 24 hunger game rules apply.
Ever play Fortnight?
"Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?"
It's not Bernie's party. It's not Warren's party. It's Obama's party and Biden is the heir. All of this media cogitation has been interesting to watch, but the real base is not on twitter, it's not the media. They don't care about Warren's policy proposals or gender or whatever. Voting is emotional and Biden is comfortable, and a known quantity, and he's from their generation.
If Butti wants to be president, he should get himself elected to the governorship of Indiana. The US Senate is a dead end. It is a platform in the nation's capital, but there are 100 senators, and you are fighting for airtime with the likes of Crazy Mazie.
To be most accurate, these polls should include "Leave me alone" as an option.
With Warren, we have gotten into stupid territory in her pandering. Really stupid territory. What are her qualifications? Apparently her vagina, high cheekbones, and promising to take economic actions that will kill the current economic boom. Wealth tax anyone? Maybe the ability to cheat her way into Harvard. That should win her support of those parents who have done that for their kids. Harris at least comes by her political success the old fashioned way (on her back). And she punches more intersectionality boxes than anyone else.
Both seem to think that whining a lot about old mean OrangeManBad is going to be sufficient to get them elected. Trump is going to try to make his opponent look silly. That is how he operates. Neither has a chance to do anything in response except whine. Whining about how mean he is, doesn’t win very many votes. When the Iranians talk about shutting down the straights into the Gulf, and we send a carrier strike force, they need to know that the President will pull the trigger, if necessary. Whining about OrangeManMean doesn’t give that sort of confidence. In Crooked Hillary’s defense here, she could be bluffed, and she could esp be bought, but there is no evidence that she could be intimidated.
What these women seem unable to understand, but Biden does, is that pandering to the left so egregiously isn’t going to get them elected, just maybe humiliated by Trump. Biden is gaining ground over them by showing that he can get Trump’s attention, then stand up to him. Instead of promising more free stuff to the whiners, loafers, and losers, which seems to be the plan with all of the female Dem candidates, Biden came up with a nickname for Trump (“Clown”), that very well may be effective, and is trying to attach it to him.
I think that as long as nobody has to make any hard choices, the Democrat is going to look like a lock, but at some point, Biden is going to have to choose between wooing the working class in the “Blue Wall” or appeasing voters like Ritmo who think that those voters should all do the nation a favor and die already.
At some point Warren is going to have to explain to PA why she is goign to shut down coal mining and fracking, and heavy inudstry for “their own good” or she is going to look like a sellout to her supporters.
I think Harris has the best shot to actually win, but that’s based on not having seen her in action. I am not sure how she rises above the split in the party that cost Hillary the job. The whole Russia hoax was just spackle to cover the deep cracks in the Democrat Party.
You’ve been saving that one!
It's stolen...
Well played Meade...
I wonder what the racial components of their support are?
Nobody writes: "I am not sure how she rises above the split in the party that cost Hillary the job."
Hillary lost because she came across as corrupt and unlikeable to a significant number of D-leaning voters. Or they were sick of the Clinton drama show. Harris isn't a good fit for the D southern voters. Don't see how she wins if she looses all of the South. I don't see Harris as a good fit for NH or Iowa.
Supposedly NYC mayor still to enter....
Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?
We have top ladies working on it now. Top...ladies.
I think she lost because she chortled while telling miners to learn to code. I think that the rest of this stuff is noise, really.
readering said...
Supposedly NYC mayor still to enter....
Is he going to dress in leather and run on the platform “No Big Gulps four you, naughty boy!” Is that his path to victory?
I know a woman
Became a native
She said she wishes now she hadn't
Been so creative
She said on a good day
My ear is tin
She said a bad day's when I lie in bed
And think of things that might have been
Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away
"What are her qualifications? Apparently her vagina, high cheekbones..."
Belinda beats her on both counts. Belinda for President!
The king of bay city holds court
https://www.wsj.com/articles/harry-reids-new-role-democratic-kingmaker-and-peacemaker-11557229701?mod=mhp
I wonder if Joe has a notebook of Top Ladies to show us.
- Krumhorn
Warren and Harris and Kolchabar are all in the same lane. But there's only room for one empty Skirt in the Lady Senator Lane. Booker is also crowding Harris in the Black Senator Lane.
Trump has made Warren into a joke and destroyed her candidacy although no D will admit it.
Biden level of support is due to name recognition and the fact they he seems one of the few "moderate" D's. He's a safe choice for the Establishment and D's who don't want someone too Left, or too black, or too young or too female.
Readering wrote: Supposedly NYC mayor still to enter....
& Stacey Abrams. Who knows who else will get into the race before September? I can't keep up with the numbers.
Trump has made Warren into a joke and destroyed her candidacy although no D will admit it.
She did that with no help by her catastrophic decision to get that DNA test and then publicize the result.
'Cause they try and they try and they try try try...they can't get no status traction. They can't get no girl reaction.
It looks like all the women are running for the VP spot.
Warren has Hillary's charm, hypocrisy and sense of personal ethics. She 'aint goin' where. Kamala Harris will be the VP candidate.
Biden is playing Fritz Mondale's role of the genial loser. Even the Dems know they cannot beat Trump in 2020. Biden's VP choice will be the frontrunner in 2024. That is what all this clown show is about.
You're the tops! You're the Colosseum,
You're the tops! You're the Louvre Museum,
You're a melody from a symphony by Strauss,
You're a Bendel bonnet, a Shakespeare sonnet,
You're Mickey Mouse.
Biden's strength in the polls are mildly surprising. It's too early...but if I had to put money down, I'd guess Biden will win the nomination.
I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and sniff somebody and not lose any voters. - Joe Biden
The establishment is flooding the zone to ensure a Biden Victory. The R's did that in 2016. What purpose was there for Miss Lindsey or Son-of-a-mailman candidacy, except to raise the noise level so someone like Rubio or Yeb! could cruise to Victory?
"In a recent appearance on RT, former Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) said although they wouldn’t agree much on economics, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) was the best of the 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls."
I am sorta with J.Farmer on this.
"It looks like all the women are running for the VP spot."
Abrams or Harris. Honestly I don't get all of the attention on Warren. She isn't going to win it; she was never going to win it. She should have gotten more votes in MA in her own election. She's not that strong of a candidate. Yeah she's got some policy proposals but so do a lot of people. Most voters don't vote because of policy proposals.
Frankly, I do not understand why Trump didn't want to run against Warren.
"The establishment is flooding the zone to ensure a Biden Victory."
His polls are way higher then Jeb's. Some at 40%. Jeb peaked at maybe 17%. The poll movement is showing support from ordinary, regular, everyday older voters. If this keeps up, he's the front runner.
Going all in on Biden reminds me of the old Western movies where they are transporting nitroglycerin in a race against time. It might be the solution to a crisis but it's also just as likely to blow up on the journey.
Elizabeth Warren can't get any traction.
When I'm watching my TV
And a man comes on and tells me
How white my candidates can be
Well he can't be a man cause he doesn't vote
For the same candidates as me
I can't get no, oh no, no, no
Hey, hey, hey, that's what I say
Liz can't get no polling traction
Liz can't get no girl reaction
WWWW correctly posits the reason for Biden support- this is Obama's party now, the democrats. The party of reparations and racial rage, of being staunchly anti-American, of proudly disrespecting our nation's history and heritage. This is why Biden polls higher among African-American voters. Look for him the old slime to tack further into nutso SWJ lefty territory in the coming months.
There is one piece of interesting piece of statistical information in that chart.
Namely that Sanders and Warren share the same voters. If you look closely you’ll see that the poll in which Warren polled the highest (I’m assuming just after she promised free college) was the same poll in which Sanders polled the lowest.
Even the Dems know they cannot beat Trump in 2020. Biden's VP choice will be the frontrunner in 2024. That is what all this clown show is about.
I hope you are right. This is such a weird political climate now.
Stories like this suggest the country is going crazy.
Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?
The reason Biden is the top runner is because the typical Dem voter believes that the swing voters who went for Trump in 2016 are a bunch of sexists who could never vote for a woman. That, and they also don't think a woman can stand on a debate stage with Trump and win.
When you're the ex-Vice President, they let you do what you want. You can sniff 'em by the tendrils.
With the Sierra Leone scam calls all over the news, it's going to get even harder for poll companies to get people to answer the phone.
“Wow. Why is everyone supporting Biden?”
I think because his strategy is to go after Trump, instead of trying to out pander and out promise more free stuff than his opponents. He is showing that he can best fight Trump. That is really the difference between rational and emotional Democrats. Rational Democrats are more worried about winning the general election, than in out promising the other Dem candidates. This is not going to be an easy race for the Democrats to win. Their Midwest Blue Wall collapsed in 2016, and the Midwest is seeing an unprecedented economic boom. Obama and the other Dems told them their old jobs would never come back, so learn to code. But under Trump, those jobs did come back. Without those Midwest states, the Dems are going to have to flip Texas or Florida to win. Good luck there. Biden has always been able to pander to the Midwest working class better than most. He pulls out his stories about Scranton, and that is a lot more than most of the rest have.
Rewrite:
I know a woman
Became a native
She said she wishes now she hadn't
Been so creative
She said a good day
Ain't got no poll
She said a bad day's when I lie in bed
And think of things I said about coal
Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away
Levi Stark writes "Namely that Sanders and Warren share the same voters."
Yeah they're splitting that vote. Warren was never gonna get traction unless Sanders dropped out; she's pulling from potential Sanders voters. My guess in the first few states: They're gonna split the vote and Biden is gonna run up the middle.
Argue all you want, but no responsible voter would ever vote for a Democrat.
"Without those Midwest states, the Dems are going to have to flip Texas or Florida to win."
Not Texas. TX is not going to flip and everyone knows it. FL is going to be close, as Florida is always close. But edge to Trump in Florida. Florida is a crazy expensive media market.
Swing states: Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin. Perhaps, maybe...North Carolina or Arizona. Very very small possibility but maybe Georgia. That's it. Every other state votes the same as 2016. I'd put money on it.
oh forgot Iowa. Maybe Iowa gets a little swingy, but edge to Trump.
Biden is gonna run up the middle.
It's oddly refreshing people keep insisting the Democratic "middle" believes Mitt Romney Republicans want to put blacks "back in chains". That's probably also true of the Democratic "right" but there's usually more of an effort to hide their true beliefs.
“Swing states: Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin. Perhaps, maybe...North Carolina or Arizona.”
My point is that maybe the easiest route is to flip PA, MI, and WI back, and Biden is probably the one candidate with the best chance to pull it off. Certainly not Warren or Harris. Warren decisively rejected her Midwest roots, and is too used to pandering to elitist MA to go back. And Harris is from the Land of Fruits and Nuts. As I noted, Biden always trots out his Scranton (PA) roots whoever he runs for office.
We need a few more Democrat women to come out and say that Biden invaded their personal space, improperly caressed their shoulders, and longingly stroked their left elbows.
Something like that.
I think, too, that at least some people are looking forward to a Trump/Biden debate. Too master level bullshitters who cannot be shamed by their departures from reality. Their respective BS is different, but their ability to defy reality is the same. I think that it would be epic.
"My point is that maybe the easiest route is to flip PA, MI, and WI back, and Biden is probably the one candidate with the best chance to pull it off. Certainly not Warren or Harris."
Yep - I agree, that's part of it. The Pennsylvania, Scranton factor. But another big part of it is that older, more religious, southern, Democratic voters just plain like Biden better. He's their Joe, they know him, they like him. That older portion of the Democratic party is in other states, and they like him too. Meanwhile, Warren and Bernie are splitting a younger, less moderate vote.
Roger Altman showed up on CNBC today. If that isn't a sign of the coming Hillary! apocalypse I don't know what is.
The reason Biden is the top runner is because the typical Dem voter believes that the swing voters who went for Trump in 2016 are a bunch of sexists who could never vote for a woman.
Biden is up now because the typical Dem voter doesn't know anything about the other candidates. The perceived frontrunner always pulls additional soft support which will evaporate as people start paying attention right before voting starts.
Consider Presidents Howard Dean and Hillary Clinton.
Harris benefited early on from a bounce driven by slavish MSM coverage boosting her that's died away as other candidates have entered the race. Warren, by contrast, stumbled early and has recovered by relentlessly promising everybody Free Stuff in a variety of policy proposals.
Neither will be the nominee.
Rick,
Whatdayouwant -- a word salad? OK: Biden is the Less Leftist, but really in actuality a leftist candidate, and he'll run up the middle of the actually very leftist Democratic electorate while Bernie & Warren split the FAR FAR More Lefty-Leftist vote.
"Biden is up now because the typical Dem voter doesn't know anything about the other candidates."
Yeah I thought it was name recognition. After this round of polls I don't think that anymore. It's early days, yeah. But the polls are surprisingly strong.
Swing states: Penn, Michigan, Wisconsin. Perhaps, maybe...North Carolina or Arizona.
The Democrats had a successful vote harvesting operation in AZ. They beat Martha McSally with "late " votes arriving a week after the election. The Democrats ran the election. It is no mystery why Soros, et all, spent a ton of money on secretaries of state and election commissioners that past two or three years, All the GOP Congresspeople in Orange County lost to "late" votes, too but California is now a leftist swamp. Maybe there will be some swing back after a couple of years of sky high electricity rates and brownouts in summer.
Mail in ballots are the key.
Regrettably, I still see a close election, despite stellar economic numbers that normally would allow an incumbent to coast to reelection.
Ohio is solidly R, and DeSantis in Fla will nudge it to the R column as well.
That means Trump has 260 Electoral votes.
The last 10 are tough, though. Yes, the rust belt is doing much better economically under Trump. But the Dems hold the levers of state power to muck things up. In PA, the Philly machine has a net 500K votes. That's a big chunk to overcome with all those small rural counties. Doable, but it's tight.
Bottom Line: Trump needs to win either Mich, Penn, Wisc or Minn. The first 3 he squeaked by with 1% wins in 2016, the last one he lost.
I agree that Trump should win in a landslide, but no wishful thinking allowed. I think it will be close, but doable. And Biden gives the Dems the best shot.
How is Biden going to convince PA that, against all evidence, their vote was a mistake?
The race is for #3: who will challenge Biden and Bernie?
But really, it's Oprah's for the taking. Though I see her making "WW" commercials.
I think those of you complimenting Meade may be making an unwarranted assumption about who is who in that dialog.
Neither [Harris nor Warren] will be the nominee.
Warren won't win because they're aren't enough college professors and administrators to carry the primary. It was a mistake for her to focus her graft on such a small group - it even excludes the rest of the teachers union which by itself far outnumbers her beneficiaries.
Harris is a different story though. Blacks were 27% of the 2016 Dem primary electorate and that block is available to her as long as (1) she remains viable and (2) Booker doesn't cannibalize it. Harris still has as much a chance as anyone to win the primary.
Warren and Harris. Locked together in mediocrity. But at least Warren is moving, increasing her chances at becoming some white guys presidential kemosabe.
Biden's too old,and distasteful.
Bottom Line: Trump needs to win either Mich, Penn, Wisc or Minn. The first 3 he squeaked by with 1% wins in 2016, the last one he lost.
This should help.
Bannon thinks the China tariff thing is very important.
China and the border are the two top issues and I see no sign that the Democrats get it. China owns Biden.
"How is Biden going to convince PA that, against all evidence, their vote was a mistake?"
I don't know how PA will end up voting. But..2020 is not going to be about convincing people to change a R vote or a D vote. 2020 is about people who voted 3rd party or did not vote. The 3rd party vote in Wisconsin was several percentage points higher then usual. It's about getting the Jill Stein vote. The final vote was tight enough in those states that the 3rd party percentage of the vote is critical. It can swing the state outcome.
tl; dr. 2020 will be about the Inga vote.
This is the 2020 question:
Can Trump find enough new voters to outweigh the 3rd party voters like Inga who will vote D? And, African American turnout was down in states like Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton depressed the vote.
She did that with no help by her catastrophic decision to get that DNA test and then publicize the result.
Yah but Trump trolled her into over-reacting and doing the DNA test.
This was a good example of why Republicans keep losing. The other team can't score an own goal if you don't even take the field and force them to play. Republican errors are almost always passive - Prevent Defense for four quarters, don't want to go for the ball because they might incur a foul. Better to lose graciously, be a good sport in the face of cheating.
Trump proves my Marine Battalion's motto: Victory to the Bold! Just by charging the enemy, you put them in a position to make mistakes, you put them at the mercy of Murphy.
Harris benefited early on from a bounce driven by slavish MSM coverage boosting her that's died away as other candidates have entered the race.
I have a Disney Endgame theory on why Harris is doomed.
The original MCU *Captain* Marvel was Monica Rambeau, a black female who became the leader of the Avengers. If Disney wanted to be truly groundbreaking and woke, they could have obliterated that glass ceiling by casting a black actress to play the role of Captain Marvel.
They chose not to because, whatever their PCBS faults, they KNOW their market. And they know a black female in that leadership role would not sell. I think, however sad it is, Harris is doomed for the same reason.
Spartacus is out. Booker just proposed Blue State wet dream gun control measures. No one is going to go to the left of him there. Which frees the Black vote for Harris.
Readering makes a good point for once- "Who will be the first to drop out?"
With the Summer debates, I think it likely the field begins narrowing by the end of August. If by that point you still don't poll over 2%, how can you really continue to run? You don't- you just disappear from people's thoughts, and then poll 0%- you don't even have to drop out, you are dropped out.
I mean, does anyone think about Gillibrand or Booker at this point? No. The only people answering a poll for them would be staff and family.
wwww: "tl; dr. 2020 will be about the Inga vote."
Sure it is.
Actually, 2020 will be about vote harvesting, dems ramping up the Lawyer Squads, the complete deplatforming if conservative voices by Big Tech, using lefty judges to help democrat precincts, a thousand Broward Counties voting and voting and voting long after the election is over, etc.
And, of course, the next round of dems openly colluding with foreign powers to undermine Trump (see Kerry/Iran) as well as 98% media going Full Pravda.
All that arrayed against Trumps actual delivered results.
Inga voters!
LOL
The only person missing along the top of that polling summary was Buttuvwxyz. It looks like the field has, for practical purposes, narrowed down to 5 candidates already.
wwww asked:
"Can Trump find enough new voters to outweigh the 3rd party voters like Inga who will vote D?"
Easily. Gary Johnson got far more votes on a relative basis in 2016 than he did in 2012, and the reason is simple- Johnson's 2016 voters were the bulk of the NeverTrump Republicans. The libertarian candidate will return to the same 2012 numbers in 2020 and most of those NeverTrumpers will return home. So, yes, the 3rd party returnees are very likely to favor Trump at this point in time.
On the second question, unless there is an African American on the ticket, I don't think any of the presidential candidates other than Booker or Harris will do better than Clinton did with the minority vote, and I think it likely that Trump will improve his numbers there, at least at this point in time.
Bay Area Guy,
I think, as of right now, Trump will win Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. This would allow him to lose Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. As the incumbent, he will have far more paths to victory than he did in 2016.
Rick,
Whatdayouwant -- a word salad?
I want people to avoid using misleading terms.
There is so much more on Trump's side in 2020 than there was in 2016. In a legal election he would win easily.
But the only angle the leftists have is the massive inflow of illegal voters and voter harvesting. California was a dry run. They pumped out millions of illegal votes.
2018 democrats turned dozens of house races over a week after the election was over.
There is no margin of fraud that will win the election this time.
Republicans are going to have to deal with voter fraud or they will lose.
It doesn’t help that he’s an authentic dingbat.
California was a dry run. They pumped out millions of illegal votes.
Arizona was a pretty good one. CA was easy. A slam dunk.
The D election guy did a pretty good job of stealing the election with "mail in " ballots.
Did Kyrsten Sinema win the 2018 Arizona Senate seat last Tuesday? The question remains up in the air, as Arizona’s largest county has 345,000 ballots left to count. Democrat Sinema has a lead over her GOP competitor Martha McSally of over 9,000 votes as of the morning of Nov. 9. That’s a shift from early results in which McSally was on top.
While the initial vote proceeds, the Arizona GOP accused the Maricopa County official in charge of elections of “intentionally” destroying evidence related to a lawsuit it had filed.
This is how it's done.
The GOP lawsuit Trump alluded to was filed over how mail-in ballot deficiencies are resolved by voters. In Maricopa and Pina counties, which represent about 75% of votes cast in Arizona and the major urban populations, mail-in voters—which include John McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain—have up to five days after the election to fix problems. Other counties require validation by Election Day.
"I want people to avoid using misleading terms."
Sure. It's not my intention to confuse with my statements. To be clear, my statements referred Democratic base voters, and how candidates run against each other in that narrow context. If I say to the right, moderate or left, I do not mean a general election context.
I refer to how candidates are positioning themselves in relation to each other. They are doing this intentionally, to appeal to different groups of Democratic primary voters. One might say X candidate is running "to the right of Bernie." That statement does not mean the person is "right" in a general election context. It means that candidate has positioned themselves "to the right of Bernie" to get a different group of voters. Bernie and Warren are competing for the same voters, who are about 25% of the Democratic base vote. That leaves the field clear for Biden to run to the "right" and get the other group. Right now he's getting about 40% of the rest of the vote.
My comments do not apply to the general election, but to the primary and to the people who vote, regularly, in the primaries.
I think Trump wins Arizona in 2020. It might become a battle ground state, but I think it holds for Trump. I'm not that familiar with Arizona, but I believe there's about a million more Republicans registered in Arizona then Democrats.
Blogger Bay Area Guy said...
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I agree that Trump should win in a landslide, but no wishful thinking allowed. I think it will be close, but doable. And Biden gives the Dems the best shot.
5/7/19, 9:55 AM
Unfortunately there are far too many people in the swing states who have been convinced to irrevocably and irrationally hate Trump. It doesn't matter who the Democrats float - that person could literally shoot someone on the street and they would still vote for them - Anything But Trump.
Meade is either trying to get you to jump in the race or trying to get you to jump into bed.
I'm not that familiar with Arizona, but I believe there's about a million more Republicans registered in Arizona then Democrats.
The issue is cheating. California had 11 counties with more voters than residents. Some precincts in Orange County (Santa Ana) had 114% turnout. Phoenix is questionable. Soros spent a couple million to elect a left wing sheriff in 2016. That used to be Sheriff Joe territory,. The Registrar of Voters in Maricopa County is a Democrat. He held "open poll days" before voting day contrary to law. AZ now has mostly mail-in ballots because, allegedly, there are so many rural voters, Most mail ballots were from Phoenix.
The GOP Legislature has got to wise up.
I hear you but a million votes is a lotta votes. I think AZ stays for Trump.
Dems don't want a woman president. They want to talk about and fantasize about a woman being president. They want TV commercials and network dramas about a woman being president. Women in the Oval Office are going to be too high maintenance for a political party to effectively manage.
Michael K said...
The GOP Legislature has got to wise up.
You say this as if the Republican Party does not know exactly what is going on.
This is the state McCain won primaries in despite being reviled by republican voters.
These are not flawed candidates, they're candidating flaws.
You say this as if the Republican Party does not know exactly what is going on.
This is the state McCain won primaries in despite being reviled by republican voters.
Fair enough but I can hope. Meanwhile. we live in the foothills of Tucson and have plenty of ammunition.
Why aren't you listening? It's Sanders! Sanders Sanders Sanders!!! Biden jumped in and is getting tonguebaths and fanservice because the D establishment is terrified of Sanders. If Biden wasn't in the polling, Sanders would be 20 points ahead, at least. His support is fanatical. Biden is a joke. The others aren't even human beings but policy/position robots. Harris checks the most boxes and will be VP to provide balance, i.e. draw blacks. Endit.
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