"There is virtually no possibility of a military victory over the Taliban and little chance of leaving behind a self-sustaining democracy — facts that Washington’s policy community has mostly been unable to accept.... The heavily Pashtun Taliban, an accessory to the Sept. 11 hijackings, continues to make battlefield gains and, if there are actual peace negotiations, is poised to share power with the American-backed government of President Ashraf Ghani, if not eventually replace it. The United States’ special adviser to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, is trying to broker a diplomatic solution that allows the United States to draw down its forces without the political foundation in Kabul disintegrating immediately.... An enterprising American diplomat, backed by a coherent administration, could try to organize an international peace conference involving Afghanistan and its neighbors, one focused on denying terrorist groups a base in South-Central Asia. It is the kind of project that Henry Kissinger, Richard Holbrooke, James Baker III or George Shultz would have taken up in their day. But it is not something anyone can reasonably expect this administration, as chaotic, understaffed and incompetent as it is, to undertake, especially with the departure of Mr. Mattis...."
Writes Robert D. Kaplan in "Time to Get Out of Afghanistan/The United States is spending beyond its means on a mission that might only be helping its strategic rivals" (NYT)(I put in the boldface).
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Executive summary: Robert D. Kaplan sees the light and agrees with Trump.
So why didn’t Hillary or Kerry organize a peace conference?
Same crap, different day.
Vietnam?
It is time to split up Afghanistan between the surrounding states.
They will each take care of the Taliban within their area, since having the Taliban in your own country is a quite different deal than helping them bother the Americans abroad, and it will also keep them busy intriguing and skirmishing with each other until the dust settles.
I don't offhand remember the American empire.
Yeah. We can't expect the Trump Administration to do it. Except it has--repeatedly. People like Mattis always ask fr six more months, then another six months after that's done. Trump makes it work--in North Korea or Syria. And Afghanistan next. Since China want to play with the big boys, maybe they should encircle the country with troops. keeping out all the bad actors that are the real problem. Robert D. Kaplan proves he's an asshole by ignoring the facts and taking cheap shots with the Left's memes of the day.
I don't have my org chart for the The Swamp handy. Kaplan is a longtime Swamp dweller right? So does this mean the Swamp meritocracy now sees that the American people want out of these 15 year/ endless wars so he now agrees with Trump?
Here we are, almost 2 years into the Trump administration, and the Afghanistan situation is unresolved. You would think that after 8 years with a Nobel Peace Prize winner at the helm that Trump could come in and finish the nearly completed job. But no, Trump has squandered the advantages Obama handed him.
<sarcasm off
Thanks Obama!
Afghanistan did not get its graveyard of empires reputation for no reason. I found little with which to argue in the quoted passage until the end. What makes the Trump administration so special in its alledged incompetence? If the previous two administrations were so competent, why is there still such a mess for Trump to clean up?
I don't usually play the pass-the-buck game, but for this disaster Obama deserves much of the blame. Running in 2008 Obama explicitly promised to move U.S. troops out of Iraq and into Afghanistan.
It is rare that a politician's promised policy returns such stark proof of it's failure.
Much worse than an undisciplined, chaotic administration is the coherent one that calmly pursues a disastrous end.
Yep, the American Empire. You remember, when we had Cuba and the Philippines, right? And Guam. Don't forget Guam.
Yep, I reckon that empire is in decline. Along with the Dutch Empire. Yep, both declining, alright.
Maybe if Bush the Younger had remembered what Lincoln ssid after the Trent affair: “One war at a time.”
Considering how the Taliban treats women, a world where there are any living members of that theocratic organization is a much worse place than a world where they and their Salafist buddies are departed to Jahannam.
To be fair, George W Bush deserves much blame as well for initiating the fiasco. But Obama deserves special recognition for pursuing two policy changes -- disengagement from Iraq, re-engagement in Afghanistan -- that were exactly the opposite of what was needed.
Stopped reading at “American Empire”.
Reasonable POV. Too bad he had to inject the obligatory jab at Trump. But it's probably a knee jerk reaction by these folk.
Why would neighbors of Afghanistan, Russia and Iran, to name two, actually want to help broker peace in Afghanistan if the USA is bogged down there?
No other country in the world symbolizes the decline of Afghanistan as much as Afghanistan.
There is virtually no possibility of a self-sustaining democracy — but that is not something anyone can reasonably expect Afghanis to undertake.
We do not have an "American Empire". Next, leave Afghanistan soon, please, Trump. Do Not Listen to Those Military People Who Want You To Stay. I almost went full caps.
Spend that money on border security. that's what the people want. Not the leftwingers - but the normals.
An enterprising American diplomat, backed by a coherent administration, could try to organize an international peace conference involving Afghanistan and its neighbors, one focused on denying terrorist groups a base in South-Central Asia.
Kaplan has a great eye for detail and a wonderful way of writing about Grand Strategy and foreign affairs that can sometimes appear to clarify issues. But the sample above is ludicrous. Sure an "enterprising American diplomat" "could try" but that crap won't work, will it? I mean "peace conference involving Afghanistan and its neighbors" only sounds good if you have no idea the neighbors are Iran, China, Pakistan and the former Soviet "'Stans" to the North. That would be a helluva conference all right! We have a different definition of terrorist than the others, and none of them agree with each other.
I see PDT gets the blame for Afghanistan. Building a narrative they are.
For those who agree with Trump's criticism of American Foreign policy, and generally I do, a must read is The Hell of Good Intentions by Stephen M. Walt to understand how difficult it is to oppose the notion of Liberal Hegemony advanced by the establishment and why we have squandered seventeen years there. Unfortunately Trump lacks the temperament and seems to only be an angry narcissist too erratic to avert further foreign policy disasters.
Running in 2008 Obama explicitly promised to move U.S. troops out of Iraq and into Afghanistan.
my 2 cents: after we won the war in Iraq, we should have stayed there, instead of Afghanistan
Afghanistan was always a job for the United States Air Force, the only ground personal we needed there were Laser designators
Ah, American empire. Those were the days there in Kabul with the women in beautiful western dresses and the men in suits posing in front of their thriving university, or enjoying an evening out drinking and dancing. Too bad we didn't have our own Kipling
I heard a snippet of Trump responding to reporter questions around Syria and Afghanistan in which he summed it up as,
"I came in and wanted to withdraw. They asked for 6 more months and I said ok, 6 months. After six months I said time to withdraw they said, no no, we need another 6 months. I said ok. Now it's been a year, it's time to withdraw, and the same people are asking for more time. I'm saying no."
It was a simple, rational executive summary that supports no open-ended war/military engagements. And yet people on right AND left are going ballistic over it.
If you believe in Occam's Razor, the explanation for this is hatred. There is no longer reasoned or principled stances being enunciated (publically) for the majority of objectionism to Trump's foreign policies.
No American empire?
Have you seen the photos of the CCP's executive committee, all dressed up in dark blue suits and red ties?
Did you see the video of Putin channeling Fats Domino?
Considering that we are fighting in 7 countries at present and we have a military presence in 150 countries (admittedly about a third consisting of Marines at Embassies) I believe we DO have an empire. It’s a different kind of empire from the Roman, British and other empires but it is an empire nonetheless. Perhaps the the biggest signal that we have an empire is that we are the holders of the reserve currency which gives America unparalleled power to direct world affairs. And we use it a lot.
An enterprising American diplomat, backed by a coherent administration, could try to organize an international peace conference involving Afghanistan and its neighbors, one focused on denying terrorist groups a base in South-Central Asia. It is the kind of project that Henry Kissinger, Richard Holbrooke, James Baker III or George Shultz would have taken up in their day.
Everything wrong with our political class over the past twenty years is summed up in these two sentences.
gilbar said...
my 2 cents: after we won the war in Iraq, we should have stayed there, instead of Afghanistan
Afghanistan was always a job for the United States Air Force, the only ground personal we needed there were Laser designators
That was essentially what John McCain proposed and it is why I voted for him, despite finding him objectionable on almost every other score. The contrast between McCain and Obama on this life-and-death issue was too profound to ignore.
What annoys me about Trump is he'll say he's doing X, and then the next day, we'll have Miss Lindsey talking before a TV camera saying Trump's not doing X.
Decide what you want to do, then do it. Don't constantly float trial balloons or go off half-cocked and have to back down.
General thoughts on Afghanistan:
1. OBL hit us hard on 9/11.
2. The Taliban gave a platform to OBL to do 1.
3. So, we hit OBL, his group Al Queda, and the Taliban back.
We cannot "rebuild" Afghanistan into a democracy. That's a fool's errand. It'd be nice to find some stable, Pro- West figure to run Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai gave it a shot, has it worked out? I doubt it.
Should we occupy the place, like we occupied the DMZ in Korea, to prevent the North from invading the South? Well, it's much messier and much less important.
Simple question: why should we be there 18 years after the fact?
I'll admit I was a dummy over the Iraq war. I naively thought we'd go in, kill Saddam, destroy the "weapons of mass destruction, put in a puppet government and leave.
It never occurred to me - at the start- that we'd be there forever trying to "Build Democracy".
Its funny how the power elite has lied to the public about almost every war we've ever fought. We're always told its going to over by Christmas, or we're going to war because of X and before you know it the mission has expanded. The Spainish-American war is perfect example: We go to war to liberate Cuba, and before you know it we're fighting a colonial war in the Philippines!
Henry Kissinger was a real politics man. He would have counseled backing a strong man to run Afghanistan and Iraq. The type that the Democrats would have decried as a brutal dictator. And they would have been correct. The fact of the matter is that the establishment people cited as capable of handling the issue, failed miserably. The government establishment is filled with people who combine astonishing arrogance with total incompetence.
Afghanistan is not a country. It is a place on the map where there are no countries.
I've come to the conclusion that Bush-II, except for a few Judges, was one of the worst President's ever. Iraq war, Budget Deficits, the push for Amnesty, Fake Border security, financial crisis, etc.
After he won in 2004, what was his great agenda? Cutting Social Security, and Amnesty for illegals!
If you believe in Occam's Razor, the explanation for this is hatred.
At this point, I'm starting to believe its about money.
"Unfortunately Trump lacks the temperament and seems to only be an angry narcissist too erratic to avert further foreign policy disasters."
Clinton — 8 years — good temperament, not angry, not a narcissist, not erratic, with good character — couldn't get the job done.
Bush — 8 years— good temperament, not angry, not a narcissist, not erratic, with good character — couldn't get the job done.
Obama — 8 years — good temperament, not angry, not a narcissist, not erratic, with good character — couldn't get the job done.
Trump — 2 years — getting the job done. On time. Under budget.
"The contrast between McCain and Obama on this life-and-death issue was too profound to ignore"
But, but, O was so much more qualified to solve the financial crisis, cuz - well, cuz he was so much more qualified. Really. Althouse told us.
Shorter Kaplan:
Trump is right, but it's wrong to say he's right, cuz you wouldn't want the right people to think you're wrong.
Anyway, it was reasonable for Bush to give it a year or so to put in a decent replacement regime. But 17, going on 18, is the mark of failure. Time to Get Out.
Trump — 2 years — getting the job done. On time. Under budget.
Really?! How is Trump getting the "job done"? Let alone on time and under budget.
Back when I was much dumber than I am today, I thought Robert Kaplan was much smarter than I do today. But at least he's smart enough to admit Trump's right, even if it is in a particularly weaselly way which tries to disguise the admission.
If we really were an Empire, we would just nuke all of that region to glass. Problem solved.
But, but, O was so much more qualified to solve the financial crisis, cuz - well, cuz he was so much more qualified. Really. Althouse told us.
I recall that during the Financial Meltdown, McCain suspended his campaign, and went back to DC and did absolutely nothing.
It did not make me want to vote for him.
These people do not have high expectations for life on earth and a God that rewards death. Very unAmerican.
The faster we get out the faster they can get back to flying their lovely kites in their lovely skies.
Kaplan (another Never Trump neo-con) bemoans Trump's incompetence. Yet somehow, we are having a conversation about leaving Afghanistan (and Syria, and soon Yemen). Does anyone seriously believe that we would be having this conversation, or reading a Kaplan op-ed piece advocating ending the Afghanistan operation under a President Hillary Clinton or President Jeb Bush?
Really?! How is Trump getting the "job done"?
I infer that Freder is a hard core racist pig who is bitter that Trump’s more enlightened policies have led to historically high employment statistics among young blacks and Hispanics. Real wage growth for the middle class merely adds to his ration of wormwood and gall.
President Trump IS an "enterprising American diplomat." More so than any president since (at least) Reagan. He is absolutely willing to think outside the box, and cut our losses when that is the best option available. Too many people are blinded by their dislike for his personal characteristics and unwillingness to let him achieve anything; there are huge opportunities being missed as a result.
Trump must never, ever be right!!!
These guys who've been pushing these wars for decades now are happy as clams to have Trump to blame the eventual defeats on.
Afghanistan is probably going to produce plenty of nasty images when we pull out.
Two eight year term administrations of great internationalists and somehow it's Trump who's at fault with Afghanistan? Sure. Get out now, all the way not partial, and settle all the scores on the way out like Michael Corleone when departing Long Island for Vegas.
"I infer that Freder is a hard core racist pig who is bitter that Trump’s more enlightened policies have led to historically high employment statistics among young blacks and Hispanics. Real wage growth for the middle class merely adds to his ration of wormwood and gall."
Truth-O-Meader rates this comment: A+
""There is virtually no possibility of a military victory over the Taliban."
Of course there is and there always was. We just refuse to do it. After almost 2 decades of fighting there, you have to ask if a brutal overwhelming bombing and ruthless destruction of all areas occupied by the Taliban right at the beginning would have killed less innocents and got it done. It certainly would have saved the lives of American soldiers, and probably a lot of non-Taliban Afghans. It's not like you would be destroying a great civilization there.
If we always went in with all the overwhelming might we have, with a goal of complete destruction or unconditional surrender within 30 days, we wouldn't have to do this half-assed effort so often. We once valued our soldier's lives enough to do that.
If what you're saying in any way validates Trump's worldview, it's obligatory to denounce Trump. You don't want people getting the wrong idea.
"Unfortunately Trump lacks the temperament and seems to only be an angry narcissist too erratic to avert further foreign policy disasters."
I voted for Trump because RV , Chuck, Inga,ARM said he would drop the H bomb on Afghanistan for practice, and then, Russia, and China
Sorely disappointed
Tax cuts
ISIS effectively destroyed
Iran deal decertfied
GDP rate 4%
Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court
And that was only Year 1. As I said — on time, under budget.
#OrangeManActionsGOOD
""I infer that Freder is a hard core racist pig who is bitter that Trump’s more enlightened policies have led to historically high employment statistics among young blacks and Hispanics. Real wage growth for the middle class merely adds to his ration of wormwood and gall."
Lincoln once said he would preserve slavery if necessary to maintain the union. Half the country is willing to hurt as many Americans as necessary just to get rid of Trump.
One thing missing from that list, Meade, may be the most important. He showed the dishonesty and bias of our media like nothing else ever could. I always distrusted them, but Trump showed us how thoroughly corrupt and unhinged they really are under the facade. That will remain an important lesson long after much of the rest is gone.
I need to read the article but we are not the first to get hour asses kicked in Afghanistan. The Russians back in the 1700s, the Brits twice in the 1800s, the Russian's again in the 1900's and us in the 2000s.
Same old, same old.
I look forward to reading the article when I get a chance.
Perhaps related:
Scott Adams podcast yesterday was about the US getting out of Syria mainly but also other countries including Afghanistan. Two things that caught my attention:
1) Candidate Trump had promised to get us out and has never, to Scott's or my knowledge changed from that. For the media to call the withdrawal sudden is fake news.
2) Adams pointed out that the US is now the world's largest producer of oil and gas. We no longer need the Middle East. They can all go fuck themselves. He thinks this may be what President Trump is doing. Just pulling back from all the places we no longer need.
Those who listen to No Agenda www.noagendashow will know that they have been saying "Follow the pipes" for 10 years and more. Look at where the heaviest fighting takes place then look at the pipeline maps. One of the proposed pipes was across Afghanistan. Back when we invaded Afghanistan, many claimed it was because of the pipeline and it as a war of "Blood for oil". Lots and lots of protests though because they soon got overshadowed by protests about Iraq, nobody remembers them.
While others may still need that pipeline, the US no longer does. If it ever did.
Oil is at about $45 today. Drill Baby Drill!
Might not be a bad time to put a $5/bbl tariff on imported oil and stick it to them a bit more.
Even a 50cent tariff on Mexican oil would pay for the wall in a few months.
Well the Brits tried to subdue/handle Afghanistan in the 1830a and 1840s, and got their hats handed to them. In short they failed. The Russkis took a shot at Afghanistan in the 1980's, and got their hats handed to them.
Why the heck should the American's expect a different result? Some places are just political bleeding sores-always have been, always will be. Afghan civil society begins--and ends--at the tribal level. I don't want to go all Doxology on you, but as it was in the beginning, it is now and ever shall be. Kaplan needs to take a longer view.
I've been a fan of kaplan's since reading his "Imperial Grunts" back in 2006 Also Hog Pilots and Blue Water Grunts the next year.
I went on a binge and read all his books I could find around that time. All of them great.
Imperial Grunts was a look at all the places around the world where we had military stationed more or less permanently. Lots of places I never knew. I knew about Timbuktu but never imagined we had forces there.
John Henry
Obama foolishly ran in 2008 on the notion that Afghanistan was the "good" war, while Iraq was the "bad" war. In fact, both were bad and stupid wars. Obama escalated the troop level in Afghanistan to 100,000 and put Petraeus in charge of trying another "surge strategy." The efforts were a complete failure. But it is also worth remembering that the Iraq surge similarly failed, by its own definitions for success.
It is simply fatuous to declare that the Iraq War was ever "won" and that such a victory was subsequently squandered. No such victory ever existed. The primary cause for the drop in violence was the completion of ethnic cleansing in the mixed neighborhoods around Baghdad and the so called Anbar Awakening, during which Sunni elders turned against foreign Al Qaeda troops and thus robbed the insurgency of support from the local population, which are vital to an insurgencies' success. The surge did smartly coopt the realities on the ground and was able to launch a successful counterinsurgency campaign. However, the improvement in security and a reduction in violence were only pretexts for political reconciliation, which was seen as the real goal in stabilizing Iraq. No such reconciliation occurred, and the Sunni counterinsurgents who had been promised roles in security jobs were subsequently denied them, and the Shia majority continued to rule with little to no involvement from Iraq's western Sunni population. This is partially why ISIS was able to thrive there.
The problems that face Iraq and Afghanistan are systemic and due to the particular histories and natures of those places. It is hubris in the extreme to imagine that some contingent of US soldiers or the possession of exponentially more advanced military technology to solve these problems. They cannot. And there is no reason for American servicemen to have their lives put in the middle of these problems.
Afghanistan is not a country. It is a place on the map where there are no countries.
Precisely. The same with Somalia. No way to win without taking it over and running it ourselves, colonial style.
I feel for the NYT, they have to find that sweet spot where they can slam Trump for failing to reverse in 2 years an 8-year Obama clusterfuck, without laying a glove on Obama.
When Trump does right - he's still wrong.
The Never-Trumper motto.
Blogger TreeJoe said...
I heard a snippet of Trump responding to reporter questions around Syria and Afghanistan in which he summed it up as,
"I came in and wanted to withdraw. They asked for 6 more months and I said ok, 6 months. After six months I said time to withdraw they said, no no, we need another 6 months. I said ok. Now it's been a year, it's time to withdraw, and the same people are asking for more time. I'm saying no."
============================
I did not hear that and Scott Adams did not reference it in the podcast.
He did go into detail about how President Trump had given them 6 months, waited 8 and when they asked for more time he asked "why?" of Bolton in that conference call with Erdogan. Bolton essentially said "hummanah, hummanah" and could not give a reason and President Trump has no given 30 days to get out of Syria.
Thomas Wictor has been posting a lot of info including maps, pictures and video showing just how deeply the Saudi's have been covertly involved in Syria.
For example, news reports show "American troops" and he zooms in on the uniforms to pick out non-US, Saudi details. This includes things like camo patterns and rucksack styles.
Or the attack on the Russians in Feb that resulted in 100% casualties that US got credit/blame for. He has video of the AC-130 showing 2 guns and the US AC-130's have 1. (But Saudi versions have 2) lots of other interesting tidbits. A map showing how the US could not have responded in a timely fashion (but the Saudis could) I wish he posted more. he was kicked off Twitter, was on Gab for a bit but left and is now posing at quodverum.com
Sounds like we are outsourcing the wars to our allies like Turkey and SA.
John Henry
Clinton — 8 years — good temperament, not angry, not a narcissist, not erratic, with good character — couldn't get the job done.
Um, you should have quit after "not angry."
very good John Henry, that's really why they banned wictor from Twitter
A really great author on that whole region and the "Great Game" is Peter Hopkirk.
I recommend all his books.
Another great book, and the coiner of "The Great Game" is Rudyard Kipling's "Kim". A great read on a number of levels. I've probably read it a dozen times over the years and it never gets old.
It is also pretty good on the geopolitics of the Russians in Afghanistan. Written around 1900, the Russian geopolitics have not changed much in the 200 years before or the 100 years since.
John Henry
In 1842, the British lost all but one member of the expeditionary force they sent to Afghanistan. The following year they sent another force out. This force razed Kabul. The year 1842 did not mark the end of the British Empire and the triumph of hostile Afghan forces.....Afghanistan is not the burial ground of empires. It is the burial ground of expeditionary forces and Afghan tribesmen......I don't think we'll have a happy ending in A-Stan, but the tragic endings will be reserved for the women of that country when we leave. I wonder why feminists have never taken up the cause of women under Taliban rule.
The reason Afghanistan has such a history of surviving is that it is never really a threat to those countries who invade it, and the invaders don't have much of an incentive to win. There is no prize. Under those conditions, it's easier to just give up when it gets too costly. Without our help to the Afghans, the Russians could have annexed it, and then the whole historical narrative would be gone. Afghanistan is like a wasp nest in an old barn. You might want to get rid of it, and you have the means, but it's not worth getting stung over.
William said.. ..Afghanistan is not the burial ground of empires. It is the burial ground of expeditionary forces and Afghan tribesmen......
This is why it is a job that should be reserved for the United State Air Force
(since, we can't nuke it from orbit, yet)
... the tragic endings will be reserved for the women of that country when we leave. I wonder why feminists have never taken up the cause of women under Taliban rule.
feminists don't seem to care much about the cause of Any women Any where
@Meade, and a Happy New Year to you and your lovely wife.
bagoh20 said...
"If we always went in with all the overwhelming might we have, with a goal of complete destruction or unconditional surrender within 30 days, we wouldn't have to do this half-assed effort so often. We once valued our soldier's lives enough to do that."
The problem is that the US rose to military supremacy in the course of a war against two great industrial nations whose people had strong national feeling (plus Italy). Unconditional surrender, followed by the installation of democracy, worked very well in Germany and Japan. Our diplomats came to believe that the goal of war is to bestow the blessings of democracy on our enemies. But that model doesn't work on Muslims. Really, nothing does.
"... 8 years — good temperament, not angry, not a narcissist, not erratic, with good character — couldn't get the job done.
I think those attributes really only apply to Bush. Everyone else was pretty much like Trump. Only the style is different, but Trump has a lifetime behind him of getting things done and fighting the obstacles to that on his own. Even his election was all him. The GOP certainly didn't help. Trump knows how to fight and win with or without help from elites. Neither Clinton nor Obama could do that. The were just mascots for their team.
bagoh20 said.... you have to ask if a brutal overwhelming bombing and ruthless destruction of all areas... ... right at the beginning would have killed less innocents and got it done. It certainly would have saved the lives of American soldiers,
The United States Air Force used to have cards printed up that said this exact thing
"But that model doesn't work on Muslims. Really, nothing does."
It's getting really hard to see it any other way, and I once believed differently.
I would have thought the same of the Japanese back then, but their intelligence saved them.
If we want to bring the country together to fight, maybe we could start a rumor that the Taliban was actually a college Fraternity that drinks beer and sometimes gets laid at parties.
A good, ripping yarn about the First Afghan War is Flashman, by George McDonald Fraser. It's the first book in a series of Victorian military misadventures, and is hilarious.
Trump's biggest mistake here was allowing it to on this long into his administration. Kaplan, though, contradicts himself right there in the middle- if the war against the Taliban can't be won, and I agree with this, then there is no logical reason for their to be a peace conference- you just have to bite the bullet, pull out, and let the chips fall where they may.
Obama himself promised to end it, but didn't do so in 8 years in office. Trump promised the same thing, and has yet to fulfill it. You can't let the generals make the decisions here- they will always ask for more time.
Adams pointed out that the US is now the world's largest producer of oil and gas. We no longer need the Middle East. They can all go fuck themselves. He thinks this may be what President Trump is doing. Just pulling back from all the places we no longer need.
It used to be a vital US interest to be able to keep the Hormuz Strait open, now its more important to be able to close it.
bagoh20 said...
"I would have thought the same of the Japanese back then, but their intelligence saved them."
Really? Seems to me that a highly intelligent, capable and hard-working people with a sense of national identity and duty strong enough to produce large numbers of kamikaze pilots would be a pretty-much ideal basis for a democracy, once they learned good and hard that they were not going to be an empire. The story of the rise of Japan is a remarkable one. Although it begins to seem that we broke their spirit somehow. They really wanted that empire.
""There is virtually no possibility of a military victory over the Taliban."
We knew exactly where the taliban leadership was. 10 meter grids. Sometimes 1 meter grids. In real time.
We could have killed them all within a week.
DC chose not to.
Almost as if they needed the war to continue. And continue. And continue...
We were purposely and deliberately held back and not allowed to win.
tcrosse said...
"A good, ripping yarn about the First Afghan War is Flashman, by George McDonald Fraser."
Yes, an excellent book, which was originally published as a memoir, and fooled some historians of the period, as I recall. I recommended it to my girlfriend, but she lost interest at the point where young Flashman rapes his father's mistress. She didn't see the humor of it. I had to admit, it did seem just a wee bit too ripping, when I considered it from her point of view.
We should send Kaplan and all of the Obama bush Hillary neocons to Afghanistan.
Then finish the job in Afghanistan.
They are all enemies and traitors.
I tried to explain the conceit of the book, that Flashman is an absolute cad, bounder, rotter, cheat, coward and degenerate, whom everyone consistently hails as a hero. She was not impressed. I have noticed, as a general cultural proposition, that it is a simple matter to make killing a man seem humorous, less so to make killing a woman seem humorous, and rape is just not funny. Nor killing children, I suppose.
Per tcrosse: A good, ripping yarn about the First Afghan War is Flashman, by George McDonald Fraser. It's the first book in a series of Victorian military misadventures, and is hilarious.
The lyrics to G&S's A Modern Major General are pretty good, too.
he was kicked off Twitter, was on Gab for a bit but left and is now posing at quodverum.com
Thanks for the link John Henry.
"Sir Harry Paget Flashman VC, KCB, KCIE is a fictional character created by Thomas Hughes (1822–1896) in the semi-autobiographical Tom Brown's School Days (1857) and later developed by George MacDonald Fraser (1925–2008)." - Wikipedia
"He has video of the AC-130 showing 2 guns and the US AC-130's have 1. (But Saudi versions have 2)"
Always fun to play liar our just ignorant. Only the U.S. operates the ac 130.
bagoh20 asserts: I would have thought the same of the Japanese back then, but their intelligence saved them.
That and their homogeneity.
What kind of empire can't even build a wall?
bagoh20 said...
"What kind of empire can't even build a wall?"
Good point. Hadrian didn't have this problem. It is interesting to consider how Hadrian would have dealt with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.
Freder Frederson said...
"Always fun to play liar our just ignorant. Only the U.S. operates the ac 130."
Do you speak from your extensive personal experience with combat aircraft? Or did you maybe just Google that?
Good point. Even the Obama Empire built a wall around their DC residence. (Neighbors claim they can't see it from their back porches. I say that Obama Wall just got 10 feet higher.)
Kaplan was for every war before Trump. What do wa call him now, a neo-pacifist? Anyone talking about American Empire" is showing he is a anti American lefty. There is no American Empire.
"...to undertake, especially with the departure of Mr. Mattis....""
I don't think an international peace conference was Mattis' idea of a solution, nor do I think it would ever work. It would end up just like Vietnam. Sorry.
If Afghanistan were going to be a non-Taliban ruled country without us, it would have happened by now. Yes, we should have killed more Taliban when we had the chance, but it didn't happen. As I have said, Trump gave Mattis 2 years to do it the Mattis way, and it didn't work and won't work. Trump appropriately pulled the plug. One needs to understand the concept of sunk cost. The past doesn't matter. It's now a matter of future investment of money and lives versus future outcome.
Do you speak from your extensive personal experience with combat aircraft? Or did you maybe just Google that?
He's full of it. The Saudis most definitely operate AC-130s. They're almost constantly recruiting A&Ps out of the United States for maintenance jobs for both their C-130 and AC-130 programs.
We've been in Afghanistan since 2001 and this asshole is blaming Trump for not getting us out.
All the Flashman books by McDonald are: (a) hilarious and (b) highly historically accurate (except for that lecherous rogue, Flash, who, of course, like Forest Gump, is fictional.)
Harry Flashman is Forest Gump with a British accent and hard-on.
I knew there's a reason I liked you folks.
If we have an empire then we must have an emperor. Trump is the most like Caesar, Bill Clinton would be Caligula, and the one before Trump had no clothes. Who will be our Augustus after the elites leave their knives in Trump?
Blogger Freder Frederson said...
Always fun to play liar our just ignorant. Only the U.S. operates the ac 130.
Always fun, Freder.
Accession Number : AD1017981
Title : Applying Lean to the AC-130 Maintenance Process for the Royal Saudi Air Force
Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1017981.pdf
Report Date : 01 Sep 2016
Pagination or Media Count : 98
Abstract : The ideas expressed in this research come from the researchers experiences working in the AC-130 maintenance squadron in the Royal Saudi Air Force.
[snip]
https://apps.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1017981
I believe this is video of a Saudi AC130 in action but can't read the Arabic captions. From Wictor's YouTube channel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG8A3FXhZ_c
More, not from Wictor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuPxC375IAU
Here's the Wictor post with pictures showing the Saudi troops and his comments
https://www.quodverum.com/2018/12/357/the-method-behind-trump-s-madness-.html
More:
https://www.quodverum.com/2018/12/360/who-called-it-.html
John Henry
Or we could burn the poppy fields and kill a LOT MORE PEOPLE. Clarifying violence hasn't been tried.
Re Flashman: IIRC, he was a character [a rather charming and manipulative one] in Tom Brown's School Days.
Flashman was the King Rat of the prep school.
Afghanistan is but a symptom, I guess the way it was with the brits in the 60s
https://www.conservativereview.com/news/video-surfaces-of-wapo-op-ed-contributor-chanting-death-to-america/
Remember when Kaplan/NYT pointed all this out when the Obama cabal raised the troop level in Afghanistan to 100,000?
Me neither.
It is the kind of project that . . . Richard Holbrooke . . . would have taken up in their day.
It is? Last I checked, Richard Holbrooke was the US's Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan under Obama, 2009-2010. So if it's the sort of thing he'd have done in his day, why didn't he do it in his day?
The Obama Administration, in 2009 and 2010 alone, got 20% more Americans killed in Afghanistan than were killed under every other administration in US history combined. And during that utterly futile orgy of human sacrifice, Holbrooke's one notable diplomatic "victory" was making sure there was no UN special envoy appointed to negotiate a peace.
Change a few of the proper nouns, publish it eight years ago, and the piece would have been an incisive criticism of an utterly incompetent administration's Afghanistan policy. Published today, with the focus on Trump's supposed disorganized incompetence (instead of Obama/Clinton/Holbrooke's proven, blood-soaked, well-organized incompetence), it's just Establishment horseshit.
well back in the 80s. Kaplan wrote a survey of what was going on in the 80s, that mentioned many of the islamist militants like Raysul Sayyaf and Hekmatyar, who was where many of the Afghan Arabs that would later compose the ranks of Al Queda, along with Younis Khalis and Haqquani who would later be the Godfather of the Taliban, and the leader of the Quetta Shura,
how did this happen?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/powerful-antitank-missiles-put-u-s-forces-in-middle-east-at-risk-11546347600?mod=e2tw
Re Flashman: IIRC, he was a character [a rather charming and manipulative one] in Tom Brown's School Days.
Yep.
And there is no reason for American servicemen to have their lives put in the middle of these problems.
The Sudetenland is rightfully a part of Germany.
the same narrative, has played out in bosnia, Chechnya, Iraq, Libya and Syria,
https://www.amazon.com/Soldiers-God-Afghanistan-Robert-Kaplan/dp/0395521327
ten years earlier he had a slightly different view,
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/2749/kaplan-on-afghanistan
The Vatican Wall is said to vary from 10 feet to 20 feet tall. Pope Fidel decries all other walls.
well sami al arian was their fundraiser,
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-hosts-palestinian-terror-group-sparking-fears-of-new-attacks/
All of that was true from the moment we invaded. The goal should have been to kill people and break things and leave a note saying "Don't make us come back here to do this again!"
We should not have dropped a few bunker busters. We should have degraded entire mountain ranges.
But Americans do not have the will to do those things, sadly.
Harry Flashman is Forest Gump with a British accent and hard-on.
Not an apt comparison.
Forest Gump was well-meaning and heroic in an uninsightful way. Flashman was ever and always selfish, craven, greedy, and lecherous even after lechery became for him nothing more than an intellectual exercise.
Pope Fidel decries all other walls.
So, how many North Africa migrants are encamped in St. Peter's Square?
bagoh20 said... If we have an empire then we must have an emperor. Trump is the most like Caesar,
I'd say Trump is most like Tiberius Gracchi, a reformer of the Republic, whom:
The senators obstructed his re-election. They also gathered an ad hoc force, with several of them personally marching to the Forum, and had Tiberius and some 300 of his supporters clubbed to death (and then dumped into the river).
If Trump is Caesar, let's just pray there is no Brutus.
Gracchus. Use the plural when speaking of the brothers.
If there is a Brutus out there I'll look forward to the new Philippi and the rise of Ivanka Augusta.
Reviews of Edward watts book on Rome, in vox and the times make that point from another side.
"The goal should have been to kill people and break things and leave a note saying 'Don't make us come back here to do this again!'
"We should not have dropped a few bunker busters. We should have degraded entire mountain ranges.
"But Americans do not have the will to do those things, sadly."
Yeah...too bad we're just not quite psychotic enough to obliterate a nation that never did anything to us.
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