The two scariest words, in any language, for Republicans. https://t.co/ycyH8FWinK
— Markos Moulitsas (@markos) November 6, 2018
६ नोव्हेंबर, २०१८
Dónde votar.
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२१५ टिप्पण्या:
215 पैकी 1 – 200 नवीन› नवीनतम»If they don’t know where what are chances they are registered?
Statistics in the absence of a comparator = the surest way to know someone is trying to sell you something.
Wow, it's up 3,350%! How does that compare to 2 years ago?
Would you NOT expect searches related to voting to skyrocket today?
Idiocy.
As Steve Sailer repeatedly says: Democrats keep telling whites that they plan to make their votes irrelevant thru mass illegal immigration, and then those same Dems call whites racist for noticing that that is what they are doing.
"Dónde votar"
Yeah, there's no voter fraud.
I thought the Republicans were matching, if not exceeding, Democratic turnout?
Mala métrica política.
The question is, did the migrants in the caravan get their absentee ballots in on time?
So... Spanish speakers are (apparently) more likely than English speakers to wait to the last day to find out where their polling place is, rather than googling it a few days ahead.
Why is that supposed to be scary?
The two scariest words for the Dems are " Amazing Grace" sung in unison by the crowd at the polling place.
Yeah Google doesn't mess with search results, no way.
Oh my goodness. It's Markos! I haven't heard of him in ages.
I can imagine this would be something that would trend today. What other day is someone going to google search for their polling place?
In case you're wondering. It's nowhere near the search trend during the 2016 election:
Google Trends
It's also being crushed by the English "Where to vote".
More Google Trends
Says some asshat in the NYT Espanol on why he HAD to become a citizen: "In one of his usual rhetorical regurgitations, Trump has said that the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution, the one that allows the world's immigrants to naturalize and have American children, is a mistake and that he would like to eliminate it. In Trump's nativist and white world, hundreds of thousands like me would not have the right to live with our children."
Did it ever occur to anyone that if you happened to be in America when your baby momma gives birth, you don't HAVE to be separated. You can, uh, go back the fuck home. If my wife goes into labor over Christmas break in Podunk, AnyState while visiting relatives, we just don't all stay forever lest we abandoned the poor child...
I guess telling the truth is racist... it's easy to dislike groups when your not forced to pretend out of politeness that everyone is equally rational or intelligent. Non-whites generally come across so dumb and childishly entitled.
Markos is still a thing...?
I thought he had gone back and crawled under his rock.
TreeJoe said...
Statistics in the absence of a comparator = the surest way to know someone is trying to sell you something.
Exactly! Up 3,350% SINCE WHEN?
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
The Halloween ICE suits are big hits at certain polling places. Clears the place out.
I finally got it -
¡ El miedo es indeleble en la amígdalas !
¡ El miedo es indeleble en el hipopótamo !
¡ El miedo es indeleble en las amígdalas del hipopótamo !
Can I be the first to point out the assumption buried in this item is that we KNOW how Spanish speakers will vote? What if ~30% of these folks are going to vote against open borders? ~20%? ~10%? Less than 10? More than 30?
It's anecdotal to be sure, but my first clue to 2016's election outcome was when my wife's Colombian (naturalized citizen) hairdresser stated her abiding support for Trump. Imagine the word ASSUME on the blackboard. I'm drawing a squiggly line and droning something about YOU and ME.
We'll only know for sure what we know when we know it.
I would offer it is true that stupid people and really young naive' people should not vote.
I'd suggest a civics test and raise the voting age to 21.
But that would terrify democrats.
"Dónde votar" ("where to vote") is the top trending search on Google in the US today: +3,350%
"Trending" means "changing" - so it went from almost nobody to a few people.
Google hints for Dónde ...
...vives
...estás
...in English
No "vota" anywhere in the list.
Scariest words for Democrats - Hillary is running again!
https://trends.google.com/trends/?geo=US
Where to Vote 2M+ searches
Dallas Cowboys 2M+ searches
Dónde votar 200K+ searches
Rat Lungworm 100K+ searches
I don't know about other states, but in PA the address of your polling place is printed on your voter registration card.
I'm not sure scared is the correct word, but I think all of us should be at least somewhat concerned that people who are so uninformed and unengaged that they don't even think to find out until the morning of the election where their polls are get to cast a vote that carries the same weight as those of us who put some thought into how our government is run. It's telling that a mouthpiece for the left doesn't see this as a problem.
Xmas at 8:19 and 8:21.
Thank you for your gifts! That Google Trends page is fascinating.
AndyN: I'm not sure scared is the correct word, but I think all of us should be at least somewhat concerned that people who are so uninformed and unengaged that they don't even think to find out until the morning of the election where their polls are get to cast a vote that carries the same weight as those of us who put some thought into how our government is run. It's telling that a mouthpiece for the left doesn't see this as a problem.
Andy said it better than I was going to, anyway, so I'll just quote him. :)
so it went from almost nobody to a few people
I'm going to predict that Sr. Gusano de la Rata will defeat Mr. Rat Lungworm.
Spanish is my first language. Ditto my entire family over age 30.
Every one of us is voting straight ticket Republican. Including the under 30s.
Course, we're all legit citizens and don't have to ask the question in spanish. So I guess we're not the ones Marcoe is referring to.
What is Spanish for, "What the hell do you mean non-citizens can not vote?"
Rat Lungworm 100K+ searches
In case you're wondering: A kid who ate a slug -- on a dare, several years ago -- died from the effects of Rat Lungworm recently.
Do you think it would make a difference if the people asking that question were of Cuban heritage versus Mexican or Central and South American? (I'm thinking of the "welcoming" that Pelosi got in Miami recently.)
When I compare "where to vote" with "donde votar" the English version was far more common.
The biggest interest from the latter is coming from Florida, with the most interest there coming from the Miami area. That doesn't prove anything, but neither did his tweet.
Fernandistein said..."¡ El miedo es indeleble en el hipopótamo !"
So you think calling Hillary a hippo is funny, eh Fernandistein? I cant imagine what kind of mind thinks that's funny. Sad.
Fuck Kos.
With a backhoe.
Is Althouse trying to resurrect his credibility from the dead?
He thinks Spanish = Democrat voter.
The left is so used to identity politics and racial polarization, they assume the other is as messed up as they are.
They don't really know us.
And the assumptions he makes says more about him than the strangers whom he does not know.
"Racist, racist, racist!" He thinks he's talking about Republicans. But he doesn't know Republicans. He's talking about the fantasies in his head.
"You're voting Democrat!" He thinks he's talking about Spanish voters. But he doesn't know Spanish voters. He's talking about the fantasies in his head.
And he's oblivious to his own racial assumptions. He's unaware how his first fantasy and his second fantasy are colliding. When Kos says, "Racist!" and "You're voting Democrat!" he's just talking about his fantasies. He's talking to himself, about himself.
Pollsters make a lot of racial assumptions, by the way. "I've talked to 100 people with black skin, I know how black people think." It's idiotic.
I am highly suspicious of statisticians who try to predict the future. To me it's hilarious when they fail, and I love it.
Moulitsas he was the one who said to the four men hanging over the Fallujah bridge, 'screw um, they're mercs' and that has his entree to democratic politics.
The funniest thing about poll-takers is how they predict their own mistakes. "I have a margin of error. My margin of error is always right. Because I am without error when I create my margin of error." They crack me up.
Also markos compared the tea party to the taliban,
Learn English. I can’t imagine myself moving to another country and asking in English, “Where to vote?” And I’ve lived in Lithuania.
¿Dónde votar? can be confused with ¿Dónde botar? Because they are pronounced the same. The latter means "Where to throw out the trash?"
The proper phrase is 'donde Voto' so markos can't even get that right,
Nothing is more American than asking where to vote in Spanish. I particularly liked the Google pointers to web sites promoting the interests of people from Peru.
"Immigration, like foreign policy, ought to be a place where the national interest comes first, last, and always." -- Rep. Barbara Jordan
"Immigration imposes mutual obligations. Those who choose to come here must embrace the common core of American civic culture. We must assist them in learning our common language: American English. We must renew civic education in the teaching of American history for all Americans. We must vigorously enforce the laws against hate crimes and discrimination. We must remind ourselves, as we illustrate for newcomers, what makes us America."
-- Barbara Jordan, "The Americanization Ideal" in NYTimes
I see what he did there.
"All I can say is vote, and take a walk today. If like me, you already voted, just take the walk.
Everything will be OK because tomorrow morning when you wake up, Donald John Trump will still be president. Mitch McConnell will still be majority leader. And Paul Ryan will still be House speaker.
Two Out Of Three Ain't Bad."
https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/11/nbc-news-upset-that-trump-is-acting.html#more
The Google doodle is telling me to go vote. I suspect the various creatures at Google won't like my vote though.
If it's the day before the election and you are still unaware of the location of your polling place, I really do think it's fine (preferable, even) for you to stay home.
In fact, if you have to DuckDuck it, I'd wager you're likely not registered to vote. My polling place is printed on my voter registration card. The location hasn't changed in decades. Plus the giant "VOTE HERE" signs are kind of a tell.
Google decided to show me an ad for Dante Acosta with althouse today. That prompted my to find out where he's running. 38th Assembly District -- in CA. I'm not sure why google thinks that is relevant to me here in WI.
I wonder if his campaign was charged for this.
If I were an immigrant to Germany I would ask Wo ist die Polling Platz? It might not be the correct term in German, but I bet if I lived there long enough to earn citizenship, I’d know the correct term.
Gahrie FTW
> Can I be the first to point out the assumption buried in this item is that we KNOW how Spanish speakers will vote?
Against mounting evidence, Democrats persist in thinking they represent the working man, the oppressed, immigrants, women, and everyone else that they don't actually encounter at work or play.
The American Jive version isn't trending so well.
Margin of error is soft science trying to pretend it's hard science. Imagine if somebody building a bridge had a "margin of error."
"There's a 3% chance this bridge will wildly sway and tip over. Either to the left, or the right, not sure which way. 97% chance the bridge is okay. So you can trust it. Because I got a margin of error."
Nate Silver objects!
"I am not hedging my bets. There is no hedging. This is science. We have a very exact, very precise, margin of error. There's a 3% chance I have no idea what I'm talking about. We've measured it, okay? It's exact."
Voted at 9 am CST in Alden Township, Polk County, WI, and I was #321. This is a rural area.
Republicans almost always have higher turnout, so more people voting almost always benefits Republicans. Markos fools himself again.
Half the increase is Markos humping the numbers, and the other half is Alexandra Ocasio Cortez, who keeps forgetting the answer.
No vamos a voter
¿Pero por quién votarán?
Where has Markos been? I thought he was dead. Maybe I had him mixed up with the Ancient Aliens guy.
Sheesh, what an insufferable db this Markos fella is. Super clever too. If you don't believe that, just ask him.
Say what? We know where to vote.
This from the digusting little shitstain that said "fuck'em" about American's being murdered and their bodies hung from bridges.
I don't know how the elections will go today, but I hope that someday I get to vote for a leader who will have a platform of throwing lefty cocksuckers like Markos out of helicopters.
The unstated assumption that because Spanish speakers are googling their polling place that they will then ipsos markos vote Democrat is wrong. This assumption will prove more wrong as time goes on and Trump siphons off more Latino and Black voters. Asians too, most likely, since the Mob also stands for keeping Asians out of Harvard etc.
Who and whom. Good to keep those in mind.
I guess small c chuck got there first. I second his post.
The Google search engine is fake news.
Margin of error is soft science trying to pretend it's hard science.
No it's not.
Imagine if somebody building a bridge had a "margin of error."
They do. They typically sample a certain percentage of the beams, bolts, concrete etc., for testing, some of which testing is destructive ("how many ft-lb before the bolt breaks?"). It also applies to medical drugs, e.g. you can't sell pills which have been (statistically sampled and) analyzed because they're destroyed in the analysis. So how do you test the pills you're going to sell?
You can read about sampling and (non-destructive) testing of bolts and margins of error in this paper by the Internation Atomic Energy Agency as they pretend to be all science-y 'n' shit.
@Saint Croix: Imagine if somebody building a bridge had a "margin of error."
They do. It's called a safety factor.
That's because nothing is known exactly. The difference between the real thing, and what we know about that thing, is the "margin", and if we didn;t account for it, there might be what you could call an "error".
In fact, if you have to DuckDuck it, I'd wager you're likely not registered to vote. My polling place is printed on my voter registration card. The location hasn't changed in decades. Plus the giant "VOTE HERE" signs are kind of a tell.
My voting place changes every year. I have to Google it to make sure I go to the right place. I live in a county that is run by Democrats, in case you are wondering why they change the voting place so often. I believe it is done deliberately to confuse people, though they say it is done to improve efficiency.
Remember though, illegals never, ever vote.
“Margin of error is soft science trying to pretend it's hard science.
No it's not.”
In controlled settings it’s not. But with polling the true error margins are much wider than stated. That’s mainly because of unknown biases from the sampling methods.
200-300,000 extra Puerto Ricans in Florida because of the hurricane. They might not know where to go.
They do. They typically sample a certain percentage of the beams, bolts, concrete etc., for testing, some of which testing is destructive ("how many ft-lb before the bolt breaks?").
True. I do stress analysis for a living. Any analysis you do includes assumptions and uncertainties about material behavior, loads, etc., and a good analyst will quantify the margin of error in his calculations. Since there is always a margin of error, you then apply a safety factor to ensure that your structure does not fail in service. I'm not sure what the safety factor is when you are analyzing the likelihood of how an election will turn out, though. At any rate, if my calculations were consistently more than about 5-10% off, I would eventually be out of a job.
I really think most Leftists want unlimited Hispanic immigration because they subconsciously want to get rid of unbehaved Blacks and Whites.
The unstated assumption that because Spanish speakers are googling their polling place that they will then ipsos markos vote Democrat is wrong.
The stated assumption - that Republicans are horrified at the thought of some people voting for the Democrats - is also stupid. Most Democratic policies do more harm than good, but it’s a free country, and the fact that citizens can vote is a wonderful thing, even if they disagree with me.
Why would he consider that good? Is it that legal naturalized voters have not assimilated enough to learn English or that illegal voters are actively trying to vote. Why would any American voter be happy about such a thing either way?
U want scary, Dems?
"Voter ID".
Boo! Dont vote!
Se habla ingles?
4Chan should hack those websites and send them to ICE Detention Facilities.
I had to look up my polling place because the hotel where the last few elections were held has closed.
I looked it up several days ago when I printed out my sample ballot so hubby and I could go over it and decide how we wanted to vote on various amendments. As far as candidates go we are voting straight Republican for the first time ever. We decided we couldn't reward the crazy Democrat behavior.
Heavy turnout in Omaha.
No mas Dems!
I need help from native Spanish speakers- how would a native Spanish speaker write such a query. As an English speaker, I would type in "Where do I vote", and from what I remember from my long ago Spanish class is this- that translates to "Donde voto", not "Donde votar" which would read to me as "Where to vote" which sounds weird to me.
The theme is the danger of the uninformed actually voting. You can checkout what they have to say over at The Conspiracy.
http://reason.com/volokh/2018/11/05/political-ignorance-and-the-midterm-elec#comment_7547753
According to local news, 80% of registered voters in AZ voted prior to election day.
This sounds like wish casting.
We've been finding out, more and more, that Hispanics don't vote in a bloc like others seem to.
Lots of Hispanics actually like Republicans, or are Republican.
Hey, kudos to Fernandistein, Gabriel, James K and Hannio, very interesting comments and much appreciated.
@ Darrell
4Chan should hack those websites and send them to ICE Detention Facilities
I was wondering how many links go back to some Russian servers somewhere.
Seems like pretty low turnout in my part of Milwaukee, which I would assume is majority Democrat. I was 303 at 11:00AM. I'm sure the miserable rainy cold and windy weather is to much some.
Anyway I did my part to MAGA!
Regarding the margin of error in polling look at the polls and ask yourself if you flip the light switch coming into your home with those stats.
I think a lot of people simply want split government so there are checks and balances as our founders intended. Many independents who vote democratic today would prob vote republican if the situation was reversed and democrats controlled the executive branch, the senate, and the house.
Eric opines: We've been finding out, more and more, that Hispanics don't vote in a bloc like others seem to.
Lots of Hispanics actually like Republicans, or are Republican.
That's my experience in this corner of AZ. So many Hispanics are small businessmen--and some large businessmen--or who work for independent contractors that they know their best interests lie in the economic health of the region. Sixty-plus percent Hispanics in Yuma county which voted for Trump in 2016. And don't assume all Hispanics are in favor of unlimited or illegal immigration, either.
Kos is so far nutty left even the MSM wont touch him
Hey, steve uhr, maybe you could look into the whole federalism thing to see how divided government is supposed to work.
If all the power rests with the federal government, there is NOT divided government.
Thanks for playing.
On edit: A comma belongs between 'county' and 'which', clarifying the statement.
In California I voted for Republican John Cox for Governor. Because California could use much more Cox in the statehouse.
There are worse things than disunity. Tyranny, for instance.
steve uhr said...
I think a lot of people simply want split government so there are checks and balances as our founders intended. Many independents who vote democratic today would prob vote republican if the situation was reversed and democrats controlled the executive branch, the senate, and the house.
This normally would be very true.
All democrats had to do was appear sane.
They couldn't even pretend.
Birkel
I'm not talking about federalism. I'm talking about checks and balances among and between the three branches of the federal government. Look at Federalist Paper 51 by James Madison if you really don't know.
So you think calling Hillary a hippo is funny, eh Fernandistein?
It's a dirty, thankless job, but somebody has to do it.
Sad.
)-;
Birkel in states rights denial. Real power resides with those who harness it. In the US, States, City Councils, Boards, Comissions, NGO's, Volunteer organizations, whinging bitches and Megamultinationalconglomerated Capitalists all wield power. Because you are impotent, you bow low to the illusion of Federal control.
I was 640 at 10:00. No lines but a steady trickle as I came and as I went. My driver's licence was twice carefully compared with the registered voters list in two separate books. I assume one check was by the Dem and the other by the Republican, poll worker. I'm not sure two poll workers check early voters in that way.
Steve Uhr: "Many independents who vote democratic today would prob vote republican if the situation was reversed and democrats controlled the executive branch, the senate, and the house."
And, as in the past, they would immediately be labeled nazi racist bigots complicit in stopping the needed decisions by the "I have a phone and a pen"/"We can't wait" crew.
It would be interesting if all the scientists went public with their margins of error.
Big sign as you drive to a bridge. "This bridge has a .0001% chance of failure." I think that would kind of freak me out at first. I usually don't think about failure as I drive over bridges.
Big sign in airport. "This plane has a .01% chance of going down."
On your drug bottle: "This drug has a 1% chance of causing severe adverse events like death."
Anyway, it's interesting that the hard sciences don't advertise their margin of error, while pollsters constantly tell us their margin of error.
Nate Silver: "Republicans chances of holding the House are only about 1 in 1000."
Nate Silver, same article: "If there’s a typical polling error of 2 to 3 percentage points and it works in Republicans’ favor, the House would be a toss-up."
So there you have it. It's 1 in 1000.
Or 50-50. Science has spoken!
Lets see... democrats are insane and republicans are helpless cucks. Colour me insane all day.
Eric: " We've been finding out, more and more, that Hispanics don't vote in a bloc like others seem to.
Lots of Hispanics actually like Republicans, or are Republican."
Those would be the "White Hispanics", according to the far left/LLR's.
Saint Croix: I think if you bothered to study and practice mathematics, science and engineering, you might not keep making such idiotic statements. The danger, however, is knowledge is the fruta diablo responsible for mans death. It might be best for you to remain ignorant.
" As far as candidates go we are voting straight Republican for the first time ever. We decided we couldn't reward the crazy Democrat behavior."
Same here, and same motivation. After being a lifelong Democrat, most of it in California, I registered in my new home of Nevada as non-affiliated, and my partner who is a registered Libertarian and voted twice for Obama went straight Republican this time too. The Dems recent behavior has turned the lifelong bleeding liberal in her entirely and passionately against them. They are simply mean, corrupt people, and liberals should reject them.
Where is all the concern and calls for investigation to defend the Kavanaugh accusers. Dropped like a pair of dirty underwear. Defenders of women, my ass.
steve uhr,
Your party disrupted the separation of powers between the states and the federal government (federalism) and now you want to pretend that you want a system of checks and balances within the overly powerful federal government? And you use the Federalist Papers to back your point after ignoring the arguments for federalism?
GTFOOH
Here's a hint:
Return to the states the proper functions that have been absorbed into the federal bureaucracy and there will be less power to check or to balance. (And that's part of Trump's agenda, too.)
Ironically the Dems may be importing a ticking time bomb voter-wise. Latinos hold family as a core value, are Christian either Catholic or Evangelical, and have an honor code that is antithetical to Progressives.
One day Democrats may realize that La Raza is not seeking a place at the Progressive governance table, but another Alta California.
Scratch a Hispanic, get a fascist. The important thing is for republicans to exploit the racial caste system of hispanics of eurotrash blood over the native pygmies.
The "founders" denounced "government by faction" and would have been horrified by the militant party organizations we have today.
Hagar,
Misters Adams and Jefferson were highly factionalized. They knew the dangers but succumbed to the temptations nonetheless.
Howard said...
Saint Croix: I think if you bothered to study and practice mathematics, science and engineering, you might not keep making such idiotic statements. The danger, however, is knowledge is the fruta diablo responsible for mans death. It might be best for you to remain ignorant.
It is kinda funny to watch you attack someone else for not understanding what Nate Silver is doing.
Because it is clear you don't understand what Nate Silver is doing.
I doubt they would be horrified, Hagar. Men were made of sterner stuff back in the day and the founders were the bravest of the lot.
A better way to look at it is the founders saw this coming and structured government in a Rube Goldberg manner such that the fashion on the day wouldn't jam the gears.
Birkwl -- I'm not a registered democrat. I did not vote for Hillary or Trump. (Whether or not you believe me I don't really give a s**t.) You are so partisan that you probably can't even comprehend that there really are independent voters out there who might vote for some democrats and also some republicans based on the character and political philosophy of the individual candidate.
What's funny is the fact the House is even in play.
Go back and look at off-year elections and how the opposition party fared.
If Trump was a bad as we've been lead to believe, the Ds would be picking up 50-75 seats. Yet, they sweat.
@St Croix:Anyway, it's interesting that the hard sciences don't advertise their margin of error, while pollsters constantly tell us their margin of error.
a) Hard scientists most certainly do advertise their error analysis. It is by far the most important thing they do. Read some scientific literature sometime. The error analysis is often its own section, but nearly every number a scientist calculates has a "margin of error" attached to it, usually in the form
0.0072973525664(17) or 0.0072973525664 +/- 17.
b) Engineering margins are frequently set by law or regulation. They are a subject of intense and continual discussion. True, the highway department in your state typically does not post them on the signage.
c) Pollsters are usually telling you their sample size error. If they say +/- 3%, that means differences of about that size are likely not to be real. The pollsters are doing what they should be doing. If the media chooses to run a "Blue Wave" headline, or a talking head chooses to run with it on CNN, over a poll that show 51% +/- 3%, that is not the fault of the pollster.
d) Nate Silver is telling you exactly what his assumptions imply under different circumstances because the underlying reality is unknown. You should want him to do that, not criticize him for telling you the limitations and assumptions that underlay his analysis.
The math and the political angles Silver is working are two different things. I understand it's important for you to encourage the STEM illiterate to keep Trump alive.
I'm getting that you people don't understand the role of polling (statistics) in STEM. Technically, it's not hard science, it's just required to advance hard science and concrete engineering.
All models are wrong, some are useful
The important thing is for republicans to exploit the racial caste system of hispanics of eurotrash blood over the native pygmies.
If Republicans thought like Democrats, that might very well be the approach they would take. But Republicans are Republicans because they don’t think like Democrats.
BTW, Silver works the math fine, but anybody who has studied math, particularly probabilities and statistics knows that assumptions are the most important thing. Otherwise we could just ask Wolfram Alpha to tell us the result right now. But you just go ahead and lecture us about how we are in denial of the abacus.
For the record, I don’t know what is going to happen, and since so many things are so different this time, I don’t see where anybody can draw on past experience to fill out the assumptions properly.
@Howard: If you really want folks like St Croix to grasp the concept, you might think about your presentation. If you want to use his misunderstandings to try to score points of Trump supporters in this thread, then carry on, but you reduce the likelihood that anyone is going to listen to you about statistics.
For the record, I'm not a Trump opponent. I understand Nate Silver's perspective completely, since I do a lot of statistical modeling myself. I also understand where St Croix is coming from, reacting to a media establishment that frequently distorts statistics and science to make partisan or ideological points.
And hence I'd like to give St Croix and folks in his position the tools to understand and make their own judgments, regardless of whether they agree with me.
Repeating my prediction I've been making for 18 months:
Minimum 57 GOP Senate seats. 62 possible.
Republicans keep the House. No call beyond that, but optimistic it won't be a slim margin.
Seeing as how hispanics are supporting trump upwards to 40+ percent, as usual this twit is still a twit.
Shouting Thomas said...
As Steve Sailer repeatedly says: Democrats keep telling whites that they plan to make their votes irrelevant thru mass illegal immigration, and then those same Dems call whites racist for noticing that that is what they are doing.
Not only that, sooner or later Black voters will notice as well.
@tim in vermont:BTW, Silver works the math fine, but anybody who has studied math, particularly probabilities and statistics knows that assumptions are the most important thing.
Exactly, which is why Silver tried to explain what different assumptions would do to his predictions. St Croix is interpreting that as Silver trying to qualify so much that he can claim to be correct no matter what happens. I'm trying to show St Croix that is not what Silver is doing, and that Silver is simply trying to be transparent and he's doing so in a way that is completely acceptable to the STEM community.
Howard seems like the sort of chap who'd spend thirty minutes berating his mail-order wife if he came home from his day job of hobo-fighting to find the kitchen floor hadn't been swept.
Then, armed with a stiffy generated by her fearful eyes, he'd retire to the bathroom for a glorious 15-second date with Thumbelina and her four sisters.
I could be wrong. But I'm not.
That's my experience in this corner of AZ. So many Hispanics are small businessmen--and some large businessmen--or who work for independent contractors that they know their best interests lie in the economic health of the region.
One race to watch tonight is Republican Lea Marquez Peterson in AZ CD2. (Michael K. is volunteering for her campaign).
Her opponent (Ann Kirkpatrick) is doing the "Arizona shuffle" which is trying to sound independent and bipartisan. She claims that Marquez Peterson (a career business owner and not a politician) is beholding to DC special interests. Yeah, right.
There are a lot of Hispanic small business owners here in the Tucson area, many in the booming construction industry. It will be interesting to see the demographic breakdown of 2018 voting.
Gabriel: Thanks for the advise. You seem to be covering that task just fine. I'm just trying to have a spot of fun.
"Ironically the Dems may be importing a ticking time bomb voter-wise. Latinos hold family as a core value, are Christian either Catholic or Evangelical, and have an honor code that is antithetical to Progressives."
Sweet heavenly days, this trope has been disproved so often I'm surprised anyone would mention it. Hispanics hoover Free Stuff with the same gay abandon shown by any state-dependent White or Black person.
Oh Kyzer. You Care! That means so much to me.
I think the 2 scariest words for Republicans would be: people voting... or even better women voting
Vicki from Pasadena
Gabriel: Or, Silver is in fact hedging his bets, and using his "perfectly acceptable" questioning of assumptions to do it. Embrace the healing power of "and".
I'm getting that you people don't understand the role of polling (statistics) in STEM.
what did you do, a mathematical calculation?
Saint Croix x Republicans in my head
divided by
hillbillies on the Althouse blog
= "you people"
@Qwinn,
Repeating my prediction I've been making for 18 months:
Minimum 57 GOP Senate seats. 62 possible.
Republicans keep the House. No call beyond that, but optimistic it won't be a slim margin.
This bold prediction is duly noted. If it comes to pass, you and Achilles will be the Roman co-Consuls of this Blog -- like Pompeius and Crassus.
I guess an analogy for what Silver is doing:
Suppose you've got a roulette wheel where the slots are red or blue, and you will get to place exactly one bet in one casino on one day this year--there's 435 casinos participating on that day. However, you don't how many slots are which--not only do you not know, no one in the world is allowed to know, and it changes from time to time. A few people are doing practice spins on roulette wheels that might be not be exactly set up the same way every day or in every place, and reporting if they hit red or blue. In addition this game has been played every year more or less and there's lots of records of what people actually did hit.
So Silver is trying to predict, based on the information he has, how many of those 435 casinos are going to hit on blue.
So I don't know how you could fault him for stating his predictions in the form of probabilities. Casinos and state lotteries do this all the time. It's not a bad casino if they don't win every hand of blackjack and every bet on the roulette wheel; it's not a bad state lottery because some people win prizes. State lotteries and casoinos play the odds and they typically make money doing so.
I think the 2 scariest words for Republicans would be: people voting... or even better women voting
Yeah. Because all right-thinking women should be voting for Democrats.
You couldn't be more sexist and insulting to your own gender if you tried.
Gabriel said...
0.0072973525664(17) or 0.0072973525664 +/- 17.
Shouldn't there be either a % or an e in there? A range of 17 plus or minus on a number with 12 significant digits behind the decimal seems pointless.
I don't know what notation you are using and am genuinely curious.
Your party couldn't be more disrespectful to women and minorities. And, to make it even worse, your "president" is a fear mongering monster
Vicki from Pasadena
I think Silver is a charlatan. Three significant digits in electoral predictions?
But I don’t believe Qwinn is right either.
victoria said...
I think the 2 scariest words for Republicans would be: people voting... or even better women voting
Vicki from Pasadena
Vicki is not sexist.
Vicki doesn't clump all women into one group who can't think for themselves and vote as a block.
Not sexist at all.
@Achilles: A range of 17 plus or minus on a number with 12 significant digits behind the decimal seems pointless.
It's the fine structure constant. It turns out to be pretty important. And so it has been very, very precisely measured. Partly because it is relatively easy to measure.
victoria said...
Your party couldn't be more disrespectful to women and minorities. And, to make it even worse, your "president" is a fear mongering monster
Vicki from Pasadena
Vicki is not racist.
She does not clump all people not white into a group who cannot think for themselves like democrats always do.
Vicki is NOT racist.
steve uhr,
Your comment had nothing to do with mine about reducing the power of the federal government so that power was further dispersed amongst competing interests. I want none of the sons of bitches who want power to have that power. And that includes both political parties. Trump has outperformed my expectations as a conservative (or classically liberal, if you prefer) with his deregulation efforts. We might be 1% of the way there.
Meanwhile, I believe that you and 63 million other Democrats voted for Jill Stein. Better?
@Ken B:I think Silver is a charlatan. Three significant digits in electoral predictions?
He's presenting ranges of seat margins in the double-digits so I don't think he's implying three significant digits.
no its not, Narciso. "Donde votar" =where to vote, infinitive.
"Donde voto" where do I vote, conjugated.
Neither is wrong-wrong.
Actually, the two scariest words in any language for Republicans are "Markos Moulitsas."
In his dreams, anyway.
Polling and predictions:
Nate Silver is pretending at greater knowledge than he has to sell clicks for advertising. But he knows the unknowns and so he couches his comments carefully. Meanwhile, the polls are so varied - so ridiculously spread - that choosing between them is educated guessing.
The two scariest words for the Dems "Votar Republicano". Majority of U.S. Latinos do not agree with the Dems position on "Illegal Immigration". Poll after poll shows this! Just another myth promulgated by propagandists like "Markos"!
@Birkel: that choosing between them is educated guessing.
Any decision made in real time, in real life, is "educated guessing" to some degree. I happen to think that incomplete information is better than none, all else being equal.
For some reason people like the "horse race" aspect of politics; that's why Nate Silver gets paid to talk about them and why polls will ever be with us. I'm not particularly interested in polling but I'm glad that there are people willing to talk about how they work and their limitations.
Suppose you've got a roulette wheel where the slots are red or blue, and you will get to place exactly one bet in one casino on one day this year--there's 435 casinos participating on that day.
How do you get from that 50-50 proposition (red or blue) to…
"Republicans chances of holding the House are only about 1 in 1000."
Basically what he seems to be saying is "I'm right. But if I'm wrong, it's 50-50 (red or blue)."
I would totally bet $1 if Nate Silver was giving 1000 to 1 odds. Whatever you want to say about the man, he's a horrible gambler.
Gabriel said...
@Achilles: A range of 17 plus or minus on a number with 12 significant digits behind the decimal seems pointless.
It's the fine structure constant. It turns out to be pretty important. And so it has been very, very precisely measured. Partly because it is relatively easy to measure.
As a constant how are you applying this to a discussion about margin of error?
I am working with Sklearn and Tensorflow and most of my experience is with Mean Absolute error, Mean Squared error or F-Score.
Not challenging just coming from a different frame of reference.
The problem with the roulette analogy is that a common factor could bias the result in all elections. That's how they screwed up 2016 and the same mistake caused the financial crisis.
victoria knows precisely how all women should vote.
Those women who might disagree with victoria are properly labeled "female impersonators" and "gender traitors" by victoria's lefty pals.
That's how you know who the "good women" are. They are the one's labeling other women who disagree with them names that start with "c".
Because "solidarity", and "open-mindedness", and other things lefties don't actually believe.
Why would a pollster intentionally want to get the wrong answer? They are judged on their performance. Even internal polls of campaigns want to be accurate. And Silver gave Trump a much greater probability of winning than almost any other pollster. Attacking him because you don't like his numbers is silly.
Nate Silver is using data he knows is garbage.
Nobody who actually had to live with their predictions or had money on their predictions would base results on data they knew was wrong.
Nate Silver has better data available to him. He does not use it because he sold out to Disney.
He is told what his results are and he finds the data to fluff it up.
Dennis Prager says that if you feel grateful to be born in America, to enjoy the fruits of liberty, you will probably vote Republican.
If you feel cheated, if you feel that you got a raw deal and that others are holding you back, you will probably vote Democrat.
@Achilles:As a constant how are you applying this to a discussion about margin of error?
Physical constants are not known to infinite precision, they have to be measured. That's why there's a margin of error, an uncertainty. It's determined by how you set up the experiment, what equipment you used, etc. Mathematical constants like pi sometimes have an uncertainty in how many digits you can calculate it out and the margin of error there will depend on your method of calculation.
Suppose I you and I agree that I shall purchase the ingredients for a pie, you shall bake it, and then we will each get half. The "half" is a constant, yet it needs to be measured, because you will cut the pie in some way that cannot be measured to be EXACTLY half and if it's far enough away from "half" I'm going to say you broke the agreement.
Gabriel,
The problems happen before a single question is asked. The pollsters project turnout within voting groups. Then, the questions are written. And the questions are written to generate desired outcomes.
It's not science even though it involves numbers.
Once the answers are tabulated is way too late in the process to determine if the polls are predictive.
Occam's Razor: The polls are used to shape public perceptions.
@tim in vermont:The problem with the roulette analogy is that a common factor could bias the result in all elections.
That's more or less exactly what Silver said. But again, it's unknown. One possibility might lie in how many people have to be called these days to generate a sample size worth polling. I don't know if that DOES make a difference but it could. Plenty of things I haven't thought of or heard of could too.
Assume participation rates amongst groups and then call.
Normalize the results to expectations if answers vary widely from predictions.
#Science
steve uhr said...
Why would a pollster intentionally want to get the wrong answer? They are judged on their performance. Even internal polls of campaigns want to be accurate. And Silver gave Trump a much greater probability of winning than almost any other pollster. Attacking him because you don't like his numbers is silly.
If there weren't stupid people in the world nobody would vote for democrats. Not saying there aren't stupid republicans. There are.
But the venn diagram for "democrat voter" and "stupid" has at least 95% overlap.
The people who own those polling companies and all of the major media in the US don't care about people looking bad.
Disney bought Nate Silver. Nate Silver is their tool. Disney does not care if he is wrong.
Disney has a talking mouse and a bunch of princesses that are all over my daughters clothes that generate all of their income.
Disney does not care if ABC loses money. Disney obviously doesn't care if Star Wars makes money. ABC is a tool to obtain power. Star Wars is a cultural institution that they can use to push their destruction of our common community.
Nate Silver wasn't even a particularly expensive tool.
@St Croix:Basically what he seems to be saying is "I'm right. But if I'm wrong, it's 50-50 (red or blue)."
He's saying a lot more than that which for some reason you chose to leave out, which contradicts your summary.
@Achilles:Disney bought Nate Silver. Nate Silver is their tool.
Think about where you work, and who you (ultimately) work for. Would you say that you are merely their tool? That if I find out you work for say, a state university, that all your remarks here are merely words put into your mouth by the Chancellor? Or that if you work for an auto-body shop, all that you say here serves the ends of the CEO of the corporation that owns it, or the proprietor if it's owned by a single person?
Don't tell me things that would dox you. Just think about if this applies to yourself.
I work for somebody like most people do. The person in charge of where I work has never clapped eyes on me and has no idea what opinion is on anything he has not directly asked about.
Nate Silver changed his prediction based on money spent by Democrats.
Billionaire donations are important.
#Science
No true woman votes Republican. No true Hispanic, no true black man... under their logic, I can see how they would be obsessing over white nationalism. If you think like they do it's inevitable.
@Gabriel
Thanks.
You did a much better job of explaining that that Nate Silver does.
But Nate Silver is a defeated man. You can see it on TV. He knows he is a sham and a sell out.
When people apply for grants to research "AI" they pull the same shit he is pulling.
I heard that Nate Silver knows who really killed JFK.
Hillary won because she outspent Trump.
#Science
Billionaire Lives Matter according to Nate Silver.
#Science
@Achilles:You did a much better job of explaining that that Nate Silver does.
I doubt that. I will tell you why.
I used to be an academic. I'm now in the business world. As an academic, all i had to do was have the right information and not make a mistake. People would look over my work, and believe me.
But in business, hardly anyone can check my work. It is not enough that it be correct. It must be believed to be correct. Either I vouch for it, or someone else trustworthy does, and only then is it accepted.
I think you were more willing to listen to my explanation than Nate Silver's. Not a criticism of you. It's perfectly normal. And why I admonished Howard's way of talking about this.
Nate Silver thinks Grey's Anatomy is a good show.
Wikileaks included emails to the press from Democrats on how to bias polls by suggesting that they poll certain areas near Orlando, for example.
A WaPo reporter was fired last year because she was caught by right wing press giving a seminar on how to use polls to advance progressive causes.
Nate Silver came to Earth on Capricorn One.
Gabriel said...
I work for somebody like most people do. The person in charge of where I work has never clapped eyes on me and has no idea what opinion is on anything he has not directly asked about.
Sorry man.
ABCCBSNBCNYTWAPOFOXUSATODAY etc are owned by about 20 people total and they are obviously coordinated and agenda driven.
You can't tell me they are operating their news services for the purposes of making a profit.
Nate Silver is told what to say. He tried to walk back in early November 2016 and moved solidly toward Trump with some loud and obvious hedges.
The day before the election he reversed that and moved his prediction back towards Clinton. He obviously didn't believe a word he was saying.
This week he has just been up there like a chucklehead.
After today he will have no more use left as a prognosticator.
He should cross the border and vote in Mexico.
@Achilles:ABCCBSNBCNYTWAPOFOXUSATODAY etc are owned by about 20 people total and they are obviously coordinated and agenda driven.
These are very large organizations even if "owned" by 20 people. If they are agenda driven, I think it is mostly because the people who work there share biases and assumptions they aren't aware they need to question, rather than they are taking marching orders.
Two can keep a secret, if one be dead. If it really were a case of Nate Silver being directed what to write, we'd be seeing more evidence. There was Journolist, where they'd get together and talk about what to spin and how to spin it, but a) I never saw any puppet-masters, this was done through peer pressure and b) they got exposed.
But perhaps I'm hopelessly naive.
Nate Silver can't actually throw a baseball.
I am going to ask a serious question about a point I raised above:
Why should Democrats spending more money be taken to be a factor that moves polling?
Please relate any answer to demonstrated results in previous election cycles.
That horrible bitch Pelosi was on Television saying that if Republicans win, it will be chaos and disunity in Washington.
First, as a Conservative, gridlock is a feature, not a bug, so her fear mongering is misplaced. She won't be able to steal my wages if she is facing 'chaos and disunity'. HER core might not get their welfare checks and art grants though.
But to the larger point: SHE is the cause of the chaos and disunity. SHE is the "Resistance".
So she is extorting the American population: I won't behave until I am in charge.
@Achilles I looked up USA Today, it's owned by Gannett which is publicly traded. Looks like they are largely owned by institutional investors, so I'm not sure about your 20 people. I own a chunk of Gannett that way so likely do you.
Point of order:
You probably own a claim on a fund and the fund owns the stock (e.g. voting rights).
Fewer people these days directly own shares these days.
@Birkel:You probably own a claim on a fund and the fund owns the stock (e.g. voting rights).
The ones I do have voting shares in don't seem to solicit my opinions anyway! It's a fair point though.
I'm sure there are exceptions but if company's strings are being pulled it's probably by their board. I'm sure we can find more than 20 people on the boards of the ones Achilles mentioned. My guess is it's not 2000 distinct people, but it might be 200. And I doubt such a large group can pull strings in unison to one end. They have their own individual and competing interests.
Birkel said,
Why should Democrats spending more money be taken to be a factor that moves polling?
Please relate any answer to demonstrated results in previous election cycles.
You've answered your own question.
But here's one set of numbers
Spending vs. Winning
You can look at 9 election cycles for Representatives.
Here's another:
Normalized Presidential Spending 1960 - 2016
WInners who spent more money:
............................Nixon Nixon Ford Reagan Reagan GHWB, Clinton, Clinton, GWB, GWB, Obama, Obama,
Winners who spent less money:
Nixon Goldwater .......................................................................................................................................... Clinton
Interestingly, Hillary Clinton spent and lost like Goldwater. The only other candidate in the spend-more-and-lose category, Nixon in 1960, was outspent by a pretty small amount. Hillary has always reminded me of Nixon.
Henry:
Diffuse entertainment options.
Alternative news sources.
Free media.
Yeah, I see a few holes.
Billionaire money < actual voters
But do go on.
Robert O'Rourke spends $70 million.
Wendy Davis approves.
When the networks called Florida for Gore at 8p.m., while the polls were still open in Bush county in the panhandle, Bob Beckel figures it cost Bush 10,000 votes or more. Polls have been used by Democrats for voter suppression purposes for a long time, so forgive me for waiting for the results.
Gabriel said...
@Achilles I looked up USA Today, it's owned by Gannett which is publicly traded. Looks like they are largely owned by institutional investors, so I'm not sure about your 20 people. I own a chunk of Gannett that way so likely do you.
Each of the board members received at least 98% approval in the 2018 vote.
Mark me as skeptical that a significant number of people have a significan percentage of voting shares
If you want to remove USATODAY from the list fine. It is the smallest of the bunch.
For each of the others there is 1 individual that owns the company and controls it utterly.
NYT = Carlos Slim
WAPO = Jeff Bezos
NBC = Brian L. Roberts
CBS = Shari Redstone.
ABC = Disney
CNN = Oddly enough is the only company with more than one person in direct ownership of it being owned by ATT. Tom Stankey runs the place though.
CNN is totally independent.
Sorry, Birkel. I thought you had a serious question.
Henry, I think the point is that for REPRESENTATIVES, money matters less. I frequently remember (Democrat) candidates who the press puffs up with their 'shoe string' wins.
And, just to extend that stupid timeline a little bit more...TRUMP spent a 1/3 of Hillary.
Yes, enjoy the salt. Rub it in.
The two scariest words to Democrats are "law and order".
USA Today carries Glenn Reynolds. They make an effort, at least.
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