It's Elon Musk on the Joe Rogan Experience, and the most extraordinary thing about it is not that he openly smokes a fat joint:
AI is "less of a worry than it used to be. Mostly due to taking more of a fatalistic attitude."
ADDED: I've watched about half of this now, and it's making me think very highly of Musk. He seems so strange, but his mind is working and there's a lot in there.
७ सप्टेंबर, २०१८
याची सदस्यत्व घ्या:
टिप्पणी पोस्ट करा (Atom)
पोस्ट्स
५६ टिप्पण्या:
I like Elon, but I think he's going through some stuff right now.
I'm trying to imagine if Steve Jobs had been an active social media user, though. It would be ugly, right?
He's self-destructing in real time.
I watched 20 minutes of it and the clip of the weed part. I thought it was okay, even when he took the puff. No SEC investigation needed...
Founders have a though time knowing when to let go. He probably shouldn't be trying to run Tesla anymore. If/when they run out of cash maybe the new management will do better.
I love Joe Rogan’s podcasts. At about three hours per interview it takes time but we’ll worth it. And they often smoke weed.
The Simpsons said it best:
I should put you away where you can't kill or maim us,
But this is L.A. and you're rich and famous.
Laws are for little people.
Why does Joe Rogan always look like his head is about to explode?
The AI fears these nerds have look like world's fair predictions that turned out be clunkers 100 years later.
In Brazil - a socialist asshole stabed one of the candidates to death in the street.
Because socialism is awesome.
Two top Tesla execs resigned today. Stock is way down. I should have shorted it last week. this was predictable. The company is a scam.
He definitely has that assburger twitch.
Shouldn't that be "you are all chimps but I'm an alien"
I still can't tell if we're watching some sort of personal breakdown unfold before our eyes or if all this is just Elon being Elon. But either way it's sure entertaining.
Don't monkey it up, Elon.
"Shouldn't that be "you are all chimps but I'm an alien"
It's an accurate transcript, with an ellipsis. First, he spoke of all humans as "chimps" (meaning we're just flesh and blood primates and distinguishing us from robots). Later, Rogan pushed him with questions about his weirdness and Musk speculated that he might contain a genetic mutation, then quipped "I'm an alien"
rehajm said...
The AI fears these nerds have look like world's fair predictions that turned out be clunkers 100 years later.
AI is coming and it is an existential threat.
It could be a great thing if developed responsibly.
The real problem is that completely amoral companies like Google are developing the technology.
I still don't understand the point of battery cars. I keep thinking I must be missing something but the more I think about it, the less I can understand what it might be.
This means I would never be a Tesla stockholder. But if I were, I would be considering a suit against Elon! For malfeasance
1 this nonsense about the brit
2 the nonsense & lies about the buyout
3 the hoax about the recent production numbers
4 "produced" but unsalable cars stashed all ovet in parking lots
5 his lack of focus on Tesla and his time spent on other projects (tunnels, spaceships)
Probably some other stuff too.
So why is Tesla getting taxpayer money?
John Henry
I find it hilarious that people think he's off the deep end because he hit a joint.
I thought it was a great interview. He's one of these once in a decade geniuses.
Right; I see this story linked at Drudge. Right above the link to the story about Tesla stock tanking.
The Brazilian candidate is not dead.
Yet. I think the odds are he will survive, but will be disabled for some time.
A Planet of the Apes reference. Will qualifying it with "all" make a difference? And "alien", too, in close association.
> The company is a scam.
Seems making cars is hard. Making electric cars at the high end without adequate battery tech and infrastructure is even harder. The successful recent startups, the Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, all started at the low end with cheap products and conventional tech.
I still don't understand the point of battery cars. I keep thinking I must be missing something but the more I think about it, the less I can understand what it might be.
Once the batteries are efficient enough they'll reach a point where they're definitely preferable to a combustion engine for a number of reasons.
The most obvious is cost per mile. If gasoline is $3 a gallon and a car gets 30mpg, it costs 10 cents to drive a mile. Conversely, if electricity costs 10 cents per kilowatt hour and an ev vehicle can get 3 miles for 1 kilowatt hour of charge, it costs about 3.3 cents per mile. So it's about a third the cost in this scenario.
The other area where EVs tend to be superior is general maintanance costs. EV vehicles have fewer moving parts, so there's generally fewer potential points of failure to deal with.
Of course currently EV vehicals tend to be considerably more expensive than their gas powered analogues. So you have to reach a point where that extra cost can reasonably quickly be offset with the savings on gasoline versus electricity and maintanance costs for it all to make sense. At some point down the line it will.
Note that SpaceX arguably started at the low end, the selling point was low cost.
John H:
Batteries eliminate point of use pollution. Centralized pollution control is more cost effective. Electric motors are quiet and more reliable. Flat torque curve ideal for getting on freeway, passing and visceral car fun.
Your proposal to put the brakes on his wild and crazy creative ambition seems Stalinesque to me. I understand the subsidiaries from our tax money is disagreeable, but I prefer investing in basic infrastructure to the trillions fed to GeneralDynamicLockeedMartinMariettaL3 so that we can kill arabs at $11 Million a copy.
chuck is obviously not Chuck, but it always forces a double-take
The most obvious is cost per mile. If gasoline is $3 a gallon and a car gets 30mpg, it costs 10 cents to drive a mile. Conversely, if electricity costs 10 cents per kilowatt hour and an ev vehicle can get 3 miles for 1 kilowatt hour of charge, it costs about 3.3 cents per mile. So it's about a third the cost in this scenario.
The cost advantage of electricity might disappear if states figure out how to tax vehicular electricity the way they do motor fuel. They have to pay for roads somehow, after all.
Real serious aviation doesn't like IC engines for a reason. Love em to death, but they had their day
I'm trying to think what the low end of personal electric transportation is. What comes to mind are electric bikes, electric scooters, small helicopters, and maybe taxis, e.g., Uber. They are all small, have limited range, and are cheap compared to cars. What they lack is climate control and range. I don't include hybrid cars here because they carry their generator with them and rely on standard fuels.
Elon is our generation's Howard Hughes, in, it seems, every possible way.
The sense I get from Musk these days is that he knows Tesla is going to go bankrupt. It looks to me that he is actively trying to get the board of directors to fire him so that he isn't in charge when the bankruptcy occurs. Quitting wouldn't provide nearly as much public relations cover.
If you don't ever drive more than 50 miles a day, an electric car might make sense for certain buyers. I just seriously doubt the batteries will ever improve to the point that they can take you 300 miles on a charge and get recharged in less than 10 minutes. I think it far more likely that the roads themselves will eventuall impart the energy needed to drive an electric car than that it will be done by a battery, and even that scenario is doubtful to me.
Batteries eliminate point of use pollution. Centralized pollution control is more cost effective. Electric motors are quiet and more reliable. Flat torque curve ideal for getting on freeway, passing and visceral car fun.
That torque part is a BIG selling point. You forgot to mention quiet propulsion, too. Battery tech is there, too- the Model 3 battery storage density is better than the Model X/S batteries. Speculation is the range of an X/S would be close to 500 miles if you replaced their packs with Model 3 batteries.
Battery unit costs are dropping dramatically- think cost of LCD TVs dramatic. Utilities are incorporating batteries into the grid which will allow for 30-40% reductions in electricity costs. EVs and the power to charge them will be the low cost option within a decade, likely more like 5 years.
This guy’s charade is coming to an end. He’s laying the ground work for an insanity defense. Tesla is Enron redux
Watch the podcast. He is stone cold sane. He's so sane, cucks think he's crazy. Plus, he has more testosterone and accomplishes more in a day than you do in a lifetime, so it's easy to understand why you worship a flamboyant showman.
Blogger Nonapod said...
Once the batteries are efficient enough they'll reach a point where they're definitely preferable to a combustion engine for a number of reasons.
I can see a lot of benefits to electric cars, especially from a mechanical standpoint. Batteries and motors have no moving parts, particularly no reciprcating parts. This makes them mechanically simpler and more reliable.
If, instead of a battery, someone could come up with a massive capacitor that could charge in seconds, I would be the biggest fan in the world.
Even now I can see some attractions in the city, especially for fleet cars such as taxis and delivery vans.
The two main problems I see are charging times and where the electricity comes from.
NJ has almost 3mm registered vehicles. Make 20% electric and that is 600m battery cars. Figure that each needs to charge daily, even if just to top off and each charges at 5KW. That is 3GW or about 6 nuclear power plants (or coal, natural gas or oil)
That's in addition to all the existing electrical requirements.
And that is a single, relatively small, state.
Yes, it will come off-peak and help utilities load balance but it is still a hell of a lot of additional generating capacity required.
This doesn't even address the problem of what happens when the grid goes down. Where would we have been in Puerto Rico last year and this if we had electric cars?
We had a lot of difficulties with fuel distribution after Maria last year but within 2-3 weeks we were more or less back on track. In May, there were still 20% of customers without electricity.
I'd like to see more focus on hybrids. Put a smallish battery, say enough for 20-30 miles of driving and a smallish motor with a generator. Maybe 20-30hp in a full size car. The battery provides the power for acceleration and cruising, the motor keeps the battery topped off as needed.
I do think residential batteries, especially when time of day electrical rates are available, are a great thing. Charge the batteries at night when juice is cheap, run them in the afternoon when juice is expensive. A problem in the US is that too much power is charged at a uniform rate regardless of time of day.
Flattening out the load on the grid like this would bring tremendous efficiencies. Powerlines could be build for average load rather than the peak that may only occur for 20 minutes per day.
John Henry
Here is something else to ponder:
What happens to the pretzel industry when cars are electric?
H/T Benedict Evans
John Henry
Musk has high praise for American justice system, judges and juries
Blogger Howard said...
Batteries eliminate point of use pollution. Centralized pollution control is more cost effective. Electric motors are quiet and more reliable. Flat torque curve ideal for getting on freeway, passing and visceral car fun.
Yes, yes, yes and yes. I would especially be in favor of nuclear powered cars. Electricity provided by decentralized, smallish, 100mw or so, nuke plants.
Electric cars would require MASSIVE increases in power generation. Are you willing to build a nuke in your backyard? If not, where does the electricity come from? and how do you charge the batteries?
Your proposal to put the brakes on his wild and crazy creative ambition seems Stalinesque to me.
I do not propose any brakes at all. I just propose that the govt not take money from taxpayers to give to him (and Solyndra, solar city, and GE windmills and so on)
I take your point about the defense industry but we do need a defense of the US so the question would be how much we need to spend on it. And President Trump seems to be doing it much more efficiently, these days. How much savings will there be from the end of the Korean War and the reunification of North and South? We seem to have real progress in the Middle East for the first time in 4,000 years. (Early days and perhaps I am too optimistic. But still, progress in that direction)
Let a thousand flowers bloom. Just because I think battery cars are a dumb idea, generally, doesn't mean I think anyone should stop him. If he can find investors, funders and customers, more power to him. I do think he seems to be malfeasing in the way he runs the company but that should be an issue for his investors, not me.
John Henry
I don't include hybrid cars here because they carry their generator with them and rely on standard fuels.
Chuck, I don't think I would say they "rely" on standard fuels. If you only drive a smallish amount and charge every night, you might not ever have to run the IC engine.
John Henry
If, instead of a battery, someone could come up with a massive capacitor that could charge in seconds, I would be the biggest fan in the world.
I've already heard stories of people proposing supercapacitors for phones. But a supercapacitor large enough to power an electric car kinda scares me. I gotta believe an accidental discharge would be pretty epic. But of course I have no idea what the realistic chances of that occurring would be.
I asked Howard if he was willing to build a nuke plant in his backyard.
For myself, the answer is yes. I would love to see someone build a nuclear power plant at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Station. That literally is in my backyard. I can look down on abut 90% of the base from my house.
So no NIMBY for me. I'm a YIMBY.
John Henry
Blogger Nonapod said...
But a supercapacitor large enough to power an electric car kinda scares me. I gotta believe an accidental discharge would be pretty epic.
Battery, capacitor, tank of gas they all hold, more or less, the same amount of energy. ie; a LOT. Discharge it all at once and it will be epic whichever it is.
Yes, there are safety issues with capacitors that need to be addressed and they are different from gasoline and batteries. I don't see them as anything too difficult.
Large capacitors have been around for 100 years or more. What would be new would be shrinking the size and regulating the output.
John Henry
It appears Musk decided "Fuck it, I'm going out in shower of sparks."
ELON MUSK : TESLA::
A. Hillary Clinton : Democratic Party
B. Donald Trump : Republican Party
C. Kanye West : Yeezy customers
D. Colin Kaepernick : Nike
E. Ken Lay : Enron
(There may be multiple correct answers.)
Reading through the comments again, I see that I left out:
F. Howard Hughes : Hughes Aircraft
G. John McCain : Republican Party
The nuclear design and regulatory system as current in the USA needs an overhaul, but that should be the primary focus of decarbonization in the short term. One reason nuke slowed is the lawsuit-happy attitude here in the states that puts the breaks on innovation and increases investment in ass covering.
No Nukes in my backyard until they are developed to be intrinsically stable. Until then, they should be located like our current fleet of coal/NG/Oil fired plants.
Electric cars would require MASSIVE increases in power generation. Are you willing to build a nuke in your backyard? If not, where does the electricity come from? and how do you charge the batteries
One big reason why this is a myth: Time shifting! Based on how consumers use cars vehicles charge mostly at night when there is ample excess capacity Also- utilities are adding batteries at the grid level allow flexibility in generation and storage. Most utilies have generating capacity - as much as a third of their total capacity- that sits idle most of the time- 50 weeks a year in some cases. It’s used for those peak heat days in Summer and that’s it. Add grid batteries to the equation and theres plenty of power to charge everyone’s car.
No Nukes in my backyard until they are developed to be intrinsically stable.
The Chinese are working on it.
We're all chimps, but I am the Apeman
Rejahm,
Yes and no. I am a big believer in time shifting to get utility loads more levelized. I spoke to that specifically at 12:33.
For that to happen we need:
1) Residential time of day pricing so it makes sense for me to run my clothes dryer at 3AM instead of normal waking hours. Very few places in the US have this. Without this, I have no incentive to change my usage patterns.
2) In addition to residential TOD pricing, we need residential storage so we can buy the cheap power at 3AM and use it at 6PM instead of expensive grid power.
As you (and I at 12:33) point out, this will reduce the need for peaking power plants, mostly gas turbines which are relatively expensive to run. Those peaker plants may cost as much as 40-50 cents/kwh to run for the few minutes per day that they are required.
Leveling demand will also reduce the capacity requirements of transmission and distribution lines, substations, transformers and the entire system which is now sized for peak, rather than average load. Utility sized batteries at the demand end of the transmission lines are becoming more and more common to allow this.
So you and I are in agreement that there is a lot of excess capacity in the system to meet peak demands. I am fully onboard with residential batteries. Assuming TOD rates. I'd probably go buy batteries tomorrow.
BUT
Battery cars represent additional load, not just smoothing load. Smooth the load with residential batteries and TOD pricing and now you can run the base load plants close to fully loaded 24 hours a day without ever having to fire up the expensive peakers.
But 6GW of charging (for 20% battery cars in NJ) in my example above will have to come from somewhere. Is there enough total capacity in the base load generating plants to make up for this? I suspect not. Perhaps 1GW or so of excess capacity exists without firing up a peaker. But that still means that 5GW has to be found somewhere. I am sure you do not want to use the peakers to make this up. It would spoil the whole point of the exercise.
However you slice it, battery cars are going to require a lot of additional central plant capacity. Then the question is, what kind? Coal? Gas? we have lots of both but that increases the carbon dioxide footprint for those who believe in that sort of thing (I don't). Nuclear is ideal but everyone is unreasonably scared of it.
Solar? Each GW of solar requires about 8 square miles/5,000 acres of land and is expensive and unreliable. Wind? Less land required but more expensive and less reliable plus ugly.
I've always thought geothermal has a lot of possibilities but nobody has ever been really successful at it other than Iceland. OTEC keeps looking promising but we don't seem much closer today to making it pay than we were 45 years ago when I was studying oceanography with a professor who was working on it.
I remain convinced that nuclear is the only sane answer. Your mileage may vary but if we are going to take the motors out of cars, we need to get the power from somewhere.
John Henry
Reportedly Musk has a security clearance since his rockets are sold to the United States and his pot smoking violates that clearance.
No they’re really not- at least not in a hurry. Demand won’t ramp up fast enough to require it because the nimber of EVs will ramp up slowly, there’s planty of current capacity and there more comkng without building new plants...
https://www.eia.gov/realtime_grid/#/summary/about?end=20180707&start=20180630
If you understand how we use electricty now and how we’d use it as we slowly add EVs to the fleet over the coming years...EVs add very little to future demand...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
Tony Seba- Clean Disruption: Energy and Transportation
EVs add very little to future demand.
As things are, they are not scaleable.
Ann Althouse said, "it's making me think very highly of Musk. He seems so strange, but his mind is working and there's a lot in there."
It's not hard to think highly of Musk. He is very intelligent and visionary.
What he is guilty of is hubris. He thinks he can do almost anything and pull it off. Electric cars, solar roofs, reusable rockets, voyages to Mars. He has convinced himself, and many others, that he is "saving the planet". The sad story of his car company is pretty good evidence that he has long since exceeded his level of competence.
He reminds me of Icarus, who flew too high with waxen wings. Icarus touched the sun, and his wings melted. Musk's wings are melting, and he too will soon fall back to Earth. Sadly, he will take many trusting believers with him.
टिप्पणी पोस्ट करा