"Optimism over the Trump economic agenda has been riding high on Wall Street and the Dow has been hitting new records lately."
It must hurt to have to say that, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average just surpassed 22,000 for the first time.
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८६ टिप्पण्या:
Ford tanked again yesterday. Their stock is so bad that even buyers of the company are staying away from the slide to penny stock.
A year ago it was $14. So much for glued-together aluminum trucks...
Don't they read the WaPo and realize it's "no longer theTrump trade" and that Trump tweeted something inaccurately and that --
I think Trump should be careful touting the stock market performance because the market can change direction. Stocks take the staircase on the way up but they take the elevator on the way down.
Wish I would've invested in Boeing, up 55% ytd, of course it's in most of the index funds I do have.
Congrats, Wisconsin! FoxConn is a Huge win! And Illinois continues to die. I'm hoping for my age Trump is a mini-80s to pad my retirement fund, which helps everyone, and a good base for the young to give their reitement funds a good start.
Not just the Dow. From the Market Watch scoreboard:
Jobs up 863m (net)
wages up 2.3%
S&P up 10.5%
inflation 2.2%
GDP up 2.6% Q2
Labor Force participation 62.9% (60.0% in 2016)
And more. Pretty cool scorecard showing 2016 and 1st 6 months 2017. Helluva improvement.
http://www.marketwatch.com/graphics/2017/trump-scoreboard/
John Henry
BTW: Inflation was 3% in 2016 and 1.6% in June 17. The 2.2% was for all of 2017 so far.
John Henry
I'm dubious about the statistics. They've been rigging them for years. What is the source of these data?
U.S. Companies Post Profit Growth Not Seen in Six Years https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-washington-stalls-company-profits-keep-trucking-1501423201
Economic data are not sensitive to the needs of women, minorities, and the LGBT community.
I enjoy a good stock market as much as any other investor because I own stock.
However, lefty friends prior to November 2016 kept citing a rising stock market from the bad-old-days of 2008-2009 as a reason why Obama was awesome. I retorted that people without stocks and stuck with rising health care premiums and declining job prospects don't care about the stock market.
Too much political reliance on the stock market is playing with fire. If it tanks you are toast -- even people who don't have stock will blame you while in the voting booth. Too much focus on it while not taking steps to improve the broader economy? Then you alienate those struggling potential voters I just described -- affluent urban progs (the current keyboard "Resistance") with nice portfolios have this blind spot.
The stock market is a good thing, but it isn't the only thing. Politicians would be wise to not put all of their economic eggs in one basket.
"Seeing Red said...
Congrats, Wisconsin! FoxConn is a Huge win!"
WRONG! I have it on good authority from a lefty Facebook friend, and the 30 friends of his that "Liked" it, that it is "Fascism at its finest. Wisconsin style."
This boom is the reason DJT wants to solve the North Korean War. But China wants to see that happen now instead of next year when US military is great again .
All of that optimism is going to start to evaporate if Congress doesn't pass tax reforms. While American businesses have to be pleased with the Trump administration taking a chainsaw to the web of Obama-era regulations that had been strangling it, if things start backsliding the other way and the deep-state regulatory apparatus starts to recover, then pessimism and bear markets will be back in style.
Trump has been good for the already wealthy on the coasts.
Blogger AReasonableMan said...
Trump has been good for the already wealthy on the coasts.
So was Obama, except Obama was bad for the poorest in the nation. Unless you like handouts.
What will the Dow do if Congress don't do nuttin?
Big news today is that Pence came to Georgia and wants us a part of NATO.But that is unnecessary. Unlike California we are still a State and automatically part of the original organization.
Robert Cook said...
I'm dubious about the statistics. They've been rigging them for years. What is the source of these data?
8/2/17, 9:17 AM
Why don't you assume they will be substantiated and skip to the part where you say they don't matter, or prove criminal conspiracy, or plutocracy, or whatever your Speak-n-Spell brain says when you push this particular button.
Actuaslly, Bob, I apologize. The above is because I resent your typical defensiveness whenever confronted by information that disagrees with your worldview ("I Don't Want To Believe"). But in fact, as I have accepted the critique that the economic numbers (e.g. unemployment, inflation, GNP-->GDP) have been sauteed for some time, certainly to the benefit of President Obama, I do have to wonder in a broad way about the state of our economic information.
I am aware, though, of no such Orwellian changes made to benefit President Trump, so ceteris paribus, it seems we're on the rise. Jobs up 863m (net) since January? That's not able to be identified as other than fantastic. Think if he were not being anklebit 24/7.
Too much political reliance on the stock market is playing with fire. If it tanks you are toast -- even people who don't have stock will blame you while in the voting booth. Too much focus on it while not taking steps to improve the broader economy? Then you alienate those struggling potential voters I just described -- affluent urban progs (the current keyboard "Resistance") with nice portfolios have this blind spot.
Also a good point, because the sugar rush of Obama's policies is apt to fade on Trump's watch, and he will be blamed.
""Seeing Red said...
Congrats, Wisconsin! FoxConn is a Huge win!"
WRONG! I have it on good authority from a lefty Facebook friend, and the 30 friends of his that "Liked" it, that it is "Fascism at its finest. Wisconsin style."
It has taken a few days for the WI left to find its talking points, which is to nitpick from the sidelines. They could use FoxConn as a way to gain some political wins offering the votes to break several political impasses in the state (their base won't let them), but they won't do that because they would rather complain.
IIRC, a few years ago, someone actually admitted they were fudging the CPI downward to reduce COLA for SS.
AReasonableMan said...
Trump has been good for the already wealthy on the coasts.
8/2/17, 9:32 AM
And look how ungrateful they are! Always bitching and whining, threatening to secede...
He's also been good for the deplorables in Racine and Kenosha. They're not bitching and whining.
Feck the stock market. Concentrate on improving the overall economy, making inflation low and predictable, getting government out of the way of capital formation and job formation, and the stock market will take care of itself. Wildly, crazily, drunkenly and in fits and starts that don't correlate well to election dates.
Blogger Robert Cook said...
"I'm dubious about the statistics. They've been rigging them for years. What is the source of these data?"
Cook is absolutely correct on this. Inflation data is particularly manipulated.
On the other hand everyone is hiring. The problem now with the labor market is worker skills don't match job requirements and the government makes employing people too expensive.
The only thing holding back our economy are the lifetime bureaucrats who live off payroll taxes sucking the life out of it and our education system that trains protesters and criminals and diversity counselors with no useful skills.
The best way to predict the coming inevitable correction will be when they start tying Trump to the economy. They already have the articles planned and written about the stock market crash.
Paul Krugman could not be reached for comment.
It seems to me that a lot of stocks have topped out and are starting to rollover even as the DOW makes record highs. Take a look at AMZN as an example, hopefully it's just a pause to digest their gains.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Cook,
You could follow the link but the source of the stats I posted are Bureau of Labor Statisics via the FRED (Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's statistical database)
The problem would be less that they might be rigged, but that they might be rigged inconsistently. I question inflation rate, for example, because of the way it is calculated. I don't question that it is down from 2016.
John Henry
Interesting that the Senate failure to repeal Obamacare didn't knock the stock market off the rails. The stock market must like Obamacare. Better keep it.
Blogger Curious George said...
WRONG! I have it on good authority from a lefty Facebook friend, and the 30 friends of his that "Liked" it, that it is "Fascism at its finest. Wisconsin style."
You mean like Phil LaFollette's National Socialism lite? A/K/A the National Progressive Party. Whose symbol was a "circumcised swastika" (Wisconsin Historical Society's phrase)
That Wisconsin style fascism?
John Henry
Well, now that the stock market is going in the right direction, maybe the Trump administration can look into having America make toilets that flush, dishwasher soap that cleans, washing machines that actually clean clothes & don't stink, & insecticides that actually kill insects.
i think it's important to keep in mind what the average American sees on a day to day basis as damage the government has inflicted.
Good for NPR. Meanwhile, the AP is going out of its way to downplay the Trump Effect as a factor behind the markets' rise.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/08/stocks-shatter-records-but-dont-give-trump-credit.php
Here is an example of a stock that took the elevator on the way down, MO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Don't forget lightbulbs, Hegelian.
I still have 20-30 incandescent bulbs in my closet but when those are gone, am I going to have to live in the dark? Or use these new fangled, overpriced, crappy light emitting bulbs?
John Henry
The Stock Market is up, and illegal immigration is down.
That is sufficient to support Trump.
@Left Bank
The stock market likes the fact that Obamacare is rapidly failing.
Robert,
There's data and there's data. You really should hunt it up yourself, because it really is manipulated in the usual press release. And you should look at history, trends. And you should above all distrust forecasts.
So, first off look in the BLS or the Federal Reserve Bank's sites and look for the rawest data you can get. Lets take unemployment. The usual unemployment rate is terribly misleading. It meant something when the US labor force participation rate was on a perpetual upward climb, but became useless (and especially political) when that changed.
Labor force participation is a better number, because it is more raw, but it does not indicate quite the same thing. You can have high labor force participation but high unemployment or underempoyment. The total population employment rate for the working-age population is rather better because it uses firmer numbers and does not try to assume interest in being employed, etc.
The stock market goes up, the stock market goes down. As a retiree I'm interested in employment (people paying into Social Security) and low inflation. I find John Henry's numbers encouraging. I find Robert Cook's failure to grasp elementary economics discouraging.
Tosa Guy: I enjoy a good stock market as much as any other investor because I own stock.
And I distrust Wall Street rah-rah for the same reason.
Too much political reliance on the stock market is playing with fire.
However, lefty friends prior to November 2016 kept citing a rising stock market from the bad-old-days of 2008-2009 as a reason why Obama was awesome.
It's also cool how the inevitable "corrections" can always be pinned on the other guy, not our guy. (And never on decades' worth of bipartisan financial shenanigans).
I retorted that people without stocks and stuck with rising health care premiums and declining job prospects don't care about the stock market.
Yup. (Though most people who own stocks aren't so fabulously financially secure that they don't have to care about rising health care premiums and the job market, too.)
Too much political reliance on the stock market is playing with fire.
Yup. I always shudder when people start cheerleading stock performance. (I guess the word "hubris" has hung around since the ancient Greeks because it's true that nobody ever learns nothin'.)
I'll give Cookie a bit of credit that government data can and is manipulated. BLS makes subjective judgements about when to reflect the aging population and smoothing of certain time series, etc. However it would be very difficult to fudge things like corporate earnings or annual GDP numbers of a magnitude to alter the overall outlook for the economy. Those are the types of data that have changed meaningfully since Trump was elected.
I personally give a great deal of credit to the current level of earnings and equity markets to one: Trump is not a Hillary or Obama or Sanders or someone who's mere existence in power freezes economic activity and two: the rollback of regulation and rightsized enforcement of existing rules and laws.
Health reform and tax reform would be large bonuses but I don't believe they are priced in to current levels in such a way as by themselves causing a market panic if they aren't implemented.
Yeah, I noticed the new standard formula from the local news station's 'financial analyst' driving in to work this morning: "Stock market at a record high, BUT -- car sales are off."
The CPI is another number that should be distrusted.
It leaves out major cost of living (and cost of doing business) elements, enough that its near-useless for many purposes.
Its meant to be an inter-period purchasing power parity measure, as the PPP is international. But as it is not for information purposes only, of interest to economists anfd pundits, but is used to calibrate legislated benefits and private contracts, there is terrific incentive to play games.
If anyone ever watches CNBC in the mornings: Andrew Ross Sorkin, a holdover leftie shill from the Obama years pledged to literally eat crow if Trump achieves 3% annual GDP growth.
The stock market must like Obamacare.
Portions of it, certainly. If I had the foresight to put everything into UnitedHealth Group immediately after Obama had won election by promising to rein in the evil insurance companies, I'd have made so much I could afford to buy a policy myself ($17.15 in late November 2008, $193.05 right now).
buwaya: The CPI is another number that should be distrusted.
It leaves out major cost of living (and cost of doing business) elements, enough that its near-useless for many purposes.
Well, it does have a perennial comedic value to those of us of the autistic household-costs spreadsheet-keeping persuasion.
Another driver for stocks and real estate over the last decade are near-zero interest rates. There isnt anywhere else to put money, if you cant lend it. Also the lack of business investment as "real" investments in infrastructure and manufacturing capacity, or new ventures, were so few.
As for the stock market, I am hedged. Hedging is not an investment so much as insurance, assume it is a bad investment from the beginning. Its value is in case of disaster, when it likely could really be valuable beyond its price, in saving life and well-being. If we are all lucky and never need such a hedge, on our deathbeds we can rue our poor character that made us miss such rich opportunities. I suppose. Me, if it comes to that I will just be thankful that I never needed my hedge and that I leave the world as a man of substance, if not quite as much as I could have been. Our kids, I think, will be able to deal with having a somewhat smaller inheritance.
Didn't see anybody at CNBC wearing DOW 22K! hats?
Blogger rehajm said...
"If anyone ever watches CNBC in the mornings: Andrew Ross Sorkin, a holdover leftie shill from the Obama years pledged to literally eat crow if Trump achieves 3% annual GDP growth."
This will be an empty number unless we get the distortions out of the tax code and reform the education system to start training a more productive labor pool.
NPR's pore hearts must be breaking at having to report that.
The market is up because Trump is president. It's not so much what Trump has done so far or what the Republicans in Congress have done. Rather it's because Hillary and the Democrats aren't in charge. Now if the Republicans actually pass a pro-growth tax plan then we might get 3% real growth. Tighten illegal immigration and the labor market .will tighten up. If they just do that and nothing more that will be more economic good than anything the Democrats will ever do. In the meantime a less onerous regulatory mindset has already done a lot of good and th market reflects that.
Art Cashin wore a Dow 22K cap on halftime report but he is cautious on the market near term based on his 50 years of experience.
They are only saying it now because the markets will tank soon and then they can say, "We gave him credit when it was up now he deserves blame for it being down."
"I think Trump should be careful touting the stock market performance because the market can change direction."
-- That and:
A) What effect he had can't really be shown, and
B) There are plenty of people who would deliberately sabotage the market just to prove him wrong.
There's no upside for him taking credit here, and it would be hard to justify the credit in the first place.
Even NPR has 401k I should think. Then again too many people invest for long term retirement in short term debt instruments.
This is where ARM would like to point out the financial devastation caused by Trump.
They reported this on WNPR in Connecticut?
This will be an empty number unless we get the distortions out of the tax code and reform the education system to start training a more productive labor pool.
I could be wrong but I think this is commentary on the equality of economic recoveries. There is truth in it.
Personally I'd like to see any 3% economy, empty or not, if only to expose those who never experienced one to what it looks and feels like. I do recall there's an element of not giving two shits as long as I'm doing better...
One of the best metrics -
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060
The dog days of summer are upon us.
All stock buys are bets, and gamblers need to feel good about increase coming,just around the corner. Trump has everybody feeling hopeful, so he gets the credit.
But a War in Korea that we are not allowed to win because China says so will
End that.
I'd agree with this: "It's not so much what Trump has done so far or what the Republicans in Congress have done. Rather it's because Hillary and the Democrats aren't in charge. "
Last year, Trump promised that if elected, he would work to improve the business climate in the US by lowering corporate tax rates and reducing the burden of government regulations. Imagine that, a nation making it easier for companies to be profitable by not crippling them at every turn. What a concept!
Had Hillary won, tax rates would've gone up to pay for her pet programs and regulations would've continued. Why anyone is surprised that businesses liked Trump winning is a mystery. Having someone who treats businesses as necessary to a healthy economy instead of class enemies is quite refreshing.
Trump is far from perfect, but he's doing a magnificent job of not being Hillary.
"Why anyone is surprised that businesses liked Trump winning is a mystery. "
SOME businesses.
There is a considerable split between the finance/software/entertainment axis and the rest, that deal in real goods.
ARM "Trump has been good for the already wealthy on the coasts"
This is, of course, ridiculous supposing as it does that people in the middle of the country do not own stocks, have no IRAs, no mutual funds. Trump has been good for investors wherever they are situated.
buwaya
I would suggest that those dealing in real goods, commodities, rolling stock, the lot, are encouraged by Trump's stated desire, some being realized, to remove regulatory headwinds. This relaxation of staggering amounts of red tape is good for everybody from the consumer to the manufacturer to the service industries.
Yes, a correction is going to happen. It's not if, but when. It might be huge. It's definitely overdue. In the end, it should not matter to the average investor.
If you have your retirement nest egg properly allocated for your age and tolerance for risk then the coming correction should mean nothing except possibly an opportunity to invest more.....It's not rocket surgery, and most should be able to do this on their own with all the info available on the web without paying the outlandish fees that some places charge. Use ultra low cost index funds and etf's and you will do well.
Trump was cast as PRESIDENT in Sharknado 3 but pulled out to run for real - then threatened to sue when Mark Cuban took the role
Trump: the White House is “a real dump”
320Busdriver
The idea that downturns occur based on the passage of time is wrong. We could have quite a long runway in front of us given continuing low interest rates and multiples that are not insane. Indeed the "recover" we have experienced over the last years has been so tepid as to hardly qualify as a recover. That said, you are correct that there will be a downturn at some point in the future, but it will not be because it is "overdue."
A "Reasonable" Man thinks that only people on the coasts are wealthy. I'll make you the same offer I made to Chuckles -- tell me your net worth and we'll cut a deck of cards for it.
The Trump trade been very good to me. Today I moved some into bonds.
As Big Mike says, the market goes up and goes down. Stay the course.
The country is the least mobile since after WWII, even in economically depressed rural areas
So much for protectionism and Wall Street "getting away with murder" or bleeding "our country dry."
They hated Wall Street until Trump told them to love it.
wild chicken
Careful w/ bonds. They are in a bubble. Wait...wait....
ARM "Trump has been good for the already wealthy on the coasts"
And they despise him.
The "already wealthy" on both coasts are liberal Democrats, living in Pacific Heights, San Francisco; Beverly Hills, CA and the Upper West Side, Manhattan.
You got the wrong bogeymen.
Unknown said...
They hated Wall Street until Trump told them to love it.
Yes.
Michael said...
buwaya
"I would suggest that those dealing in real goods, commodities, rolling stock, the lot, are encouraged by Trump's stated desire, some being realized, to remove regulatory headwinds. This relaxation of staggering amounts of red tape is good for everybody from the consumer to the manufacturer to the service industries."
Now wait just a goldang minute young man. Are you telling me that "trickle down" really works?
Conservatives don't think business and economics is a zero-sum game. We don't hate Wall Street or Hollywood. We want them to leave us alone.
Larry J - This should be a bumper sticker:
Trump is far from perfect, but he's doing a magnificent job of not being Hillary.
Blogger Etienne said...Ford tanked again yesterday. Their stock is so bad that even buyers of the company are staying away from the slide to penny stock. A year ago it was $14. So much for glued-together aluminum trucks...
The F-150 may have issues, but my guess is the whole auto industry is running out of people to but their expensive product. I've seen lots of articles talking about the easy credit for auto loans of the past couple years having way too high default rates. The SUVs and pickup trucks have gotten very expensive for the average consumer.
I got my 03 Suburban 1500 4 x 4 last winter for $3,500 with 160,000 miles on it. Top of the line model, DVD, everything except a sunroof boo hoo, but that car is as good as anything they have now. For a thousand bucks I can put in the latest Apple/Android head unit, backup camera, all that and then what else would I want? That car will go another hundred thousand miles easy. Why would I get a car payment?
"This is, of course, ridiculous supposing as it does that people in the middle of the country do not own stocks, have no IRAs, no mutual funds. Trump has been good for investors wherever they are situated."
Don't bother stating the obvious to ARM and Unknown Dumbbell Inga.
They have their little Narrative going. Can't disrupt that.
Stock prices go up because they're going up, and
they go down because they're going down.
It's a positive-feedback system with high gain, and such systems are not stable.
Nonetheless, it's perhaps time for the pundits who predicted a stock-market plunge if Trump were elected to explain how they could be so wrong?
"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof." John Kenneth Galbraith
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