... catch the wind.
ADDED: I was going to do a new post for the State of the Union, but "Ice-Bound Cafe" seems so right.
२० जानेवारी, २०१५
At the Ice-Bound Café...
... catch the wind.
ADDED: I was going to do a new post for the State of the Union, but "Ice-Bound Cafe" seems so right.
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पोस्ट्स
१११ टिप्पण्या:
What word rhymes with "orange"?
Looks like Sand Bar State Park, just north of Burlington, VT.
"Door hinge" - Arlo Guthrie
Never to young
Boy, 13, builds Braille printer with Legos, starts company
Porrange -porridge made with oranges......
I kid.
Boy builds Braille printer with Legos, starts company
The kid got funded by Intel. His company is going to be a success. Since the kid is only 13 that's a long time for the value of his firm and his investment in it to grow.
He's contributing to inequality, the little shit.
I like the think the Patriots have the SuperBowl sewn up, but I remember how dominant the Bills were for 4 years and never won. They were 12-4 against the NFC in those years. Guess which four were the losses.
Years ago, I had a friend with an iceboat. We used to sail on Mendota on the infrequent occasions the ice conditions were right.
http://reason.com/blog/2015/01/19/how-the-press-exaggerated-holders-forfei
This comports with what I was trying to argue the other day here at Althouse.
I'm not sure where those I discussed this with got their numbers, but it seems I was correct.
It's going to have a very minimal effect, if any, on equitable sharing.
Our office already put out an Email today telling us that we don't adopt any seizures anyway, so it'll have no effect on us at all. Where it will have an effect? I have no clue.
People forget that iceboating was the fastest way to move for a long long time.
Congrats on the retirement, btw.
Who sez there ain't no rhyme for oranges?"
Am I the first to find this link for crochet shorts for men at Ace of Spades?
Eye bleach required. Or perhaps a pitcher of Margaritas.
Sporange.
I bet you'd be warmer in your crocheted shorts.
http://craftgossip.com/crochet-shorts-for-men/
A sign of the End of Civilization
Crochet shorts
http://craftgossip.com/crochet-shorts-for-men/
And we all came running to Ann's place
Sad state of affairs... when I saw this -
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/354463.php
I thought of Althouse.
Apparently others saw crochet shorts for men and thought "Althouse" as well.
"People forget that iceboating was the fastest way to move for a long long time."
That thing could move. It was exciting. Also a bit scary. Typically, you'd get usable ice in the spring when the snow had melted. It was common to be out sailing with open water a short distance away.
Congrats on the retirement, btw."
Is that directed at me, MM?
"The anonymous checks began showing up in the church office not long after Joshua's brain cancer diagnosis.
They came in odd amounts, a few thousand one month and maybe more the next. It eventually all added up to about $50,000.
Finally, a substitute church secretary slipped up and told Curkendall that the gifts were from the same person: Joe Paterno."
http://www.ydr.com/psu/ci_26306851/former-penn-state-player-pete-curkendall-joe-paterno
Bradly Cooper in Sniper training shorts
Apparently these are a Marine 'thing' but they remind me of Reno 911.
Students at all-female Mass. college cancel annual ‘Vagina Monologues’ performance, saying play isn’t trans-friendly
Some people who self-identify as female gendered but don't have vaginas suffer feelings of exclusion and that is micro aggressive behavior or something.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7vc2SxIYAE_zs7.png:large
Hopefully followed by some ham and navy bean soup with lots of onions and lashings of Tabasco. Oh baby.
Will Obama deliver SOTU without the teleprompter like Bill Clinton once did?
I'm playing a Derbyshire podcast instead of listening to Obama's STFU address.
Yay! I'm saved! There's a Badger basketball game on now.
Obama gives a shout-out to Bush Jr in the SOTU - 'a vicious recession'.
"Bush Bush Bush!"
The monomaniac just couldn't hold it in anymore.
ARM
I hope he will point out that 80% of African American children in 1960 lived with both of their parents. Today it is around 30%. African American unemployment today versus when the evil GWB released his vile grip is about double.
Progress. Progressive.
Is the reception icy? I am watching RHOBH on Bravo!
Michael said...
African American unemployment today versus when the evil GWB released his vile grip is about double.
You have cherry picked those dates. If you want to be taken seriously you should start from the end of dramatic decline in employment produced by the Great Bush Recession.
Is that directed at me, MM?
Yes. I thought I read that you said you'd retired -- yesterday, or the day before. Maybe it was a different Mike.
No, you're right MM. Thanks. Still go into the lab to dispense pearls of wisdom, as needed, but I decided it was time to cultivate other interests before it's too late.
Obama's going to prevent identity theft. Is there nothing he can't do?
Do you think that commenting on blogs would be cooler if we all agreed to call it the "blog commenting scene"?
Ruth Bader Ginsburg is nodding off.
Now its the Packers and #inflategate
When Obama referenced "the streets of Paris," and some lawmakers waved pencils, I felt embarrassed. I guess it is better than a hashtag.
Did anyone see Emma Sulkowicz in attendance? Maybe they wouldn't let her in with her mattress.
Too bad. I was hoping for the teleprompter to conk out.
SOTU best line: "I took an oath to do what I think is best for the country."
"SOTU best line: "I took an oath to do what I think is best for the country.""
The Constitution has never been his strong suit.
"an oath on the steps of this Capitol – to do what I believe is best for America."
ARM
. If you want to be taken seriously you should start from the end of dramatic decline in employment produced by the Great Bush Recession.
If you want to be taken seriously you should write in English. But I will bite. Choose that date which ended the dramatic decline and give me the AA unemployment then and now.
Thanks
Don't often watch the SOTU, quite enjoyable tonight. What a difference $2 gas makes. My hope for the future is that the American people learn to incorporate a few other economic indicators into their thought processes.
If it weren't for North Dakota and Texas, there wouldn't be a recovery.
"I was going to do a new post for the State of the Union, but "Ice-Bound Cafe" seems so right.
It would have been great to collapse OPEC years ago by drilling in ANWR and approving Keystone. Imagine if we had been enjoying $2 gas for years.
Michael said...
Choose that date which ended the dramatic decline and give me the AA unemployment then and now.
Look at graph 16 here. Peak unemployment typically lags the end dates of recessions, as you would expect.
At a minimum you should use the end date of the Great Bush Recession (grey shading), but really the date of the peak total unemployment would be fairer for comparison since the peak is the product of the depth of the recession. As you can see AA unemployment simply tracks unemployment for other races/ethnicities except it starts from a higher baseline point.
Even taking your date as the basis for comparison, your statement is wrong, based on this data.
Shades of "Mission Accomplished."
Obama has declared that "the shadow of a crisis" has passed. Wow, what terrible God tempting Karma. There are several things going on right now that could create another economic crisis. It does not have to start in the United States, and probably will not this time. Russia and China are good starting points, with Europe a distant third but not out of the race.
O is President for two more years. He can declare victory, but he can't withdraw. That trick is not going to work.
AReasonableMan said...
Don't often watch the SOTU, quite enjoyable tonight. What a difference $2 gas makes. My hope for the future is that the American people learn to incorporate a few other economic indicators into their thought processes.
And my hope for you is that you learn not to be so contemptuous of the American people.
"He can declare victory, but he can't withdraw. That trick is not going to work"
Please. Can we please stop talking about the final 5 minutes of the Packers/Seahawks game over and over again? At long last, have we not suffered enough?
"My hope for the future is that the American people learn to incorporate a few other economic indicators into their thought processes."
Median Income Down
Household Net Worth Down
National Debt Up By Seven Tr
David said...
And my hope for you is that you learn not to be so contemptuous of the American people.
How was that contemptuous? Gas prices are a burden for poorer citizens, which is why public transport and mileage standards are so important. For middle class families the obsession over gas prices is out of proportion given that gas makes up a relatively small (2-4%) fraction of household expenditures. Property bubbles with the associated increases in mortgage costs and property taxes are a much bigger concern.
"Shower the people you love with___"
This SOTU could have been so cool with a little JT accompaniment.
Fun fact: I half-listened to the SOTU from the other room, then looked it up on google to blog about it. (End product here: http://janetheactuary.blogspot.com/2015/01/sotu.html But it's not worth much except if you want a bit of a Cliff's Notes, as it was pretty much just a lot of nothing.)
Ended up with a link to the White House site, but everything seemed a little off.
Turned out I was reading the 2014 speech, which was so similar that I couldn't quite figure out what was wrong at first.
Which tells you everything you need to know.
The last time gas prices were low, Obama proposed a windfall profits tax against the energy companies.
Ahhh. Obama. Gets to start anew every speech. He feels so liberated with no real responsibilities to actually make things work.
ARM: "How was that contemptuous?"
Tone and content were the two major factors.
"This Obama speech was great! It reminded us of his 2008 speeches and the man he was. You know, The guy he didn't actually turn out to be.
But we believe him this time"
-- All the pundits
So presidential and gracious in victory.
http://instagram.com/p/yGdVj4osEr/
MathMom wrote: Sporange
I didn't fork over the green to Merriam-Webster for the dubious privilege of learning their definition of sporange. However I did locate a spurious entry on the Urban Dictionary site. According to one of their contributors sporange is a synonym and alternate form of sporangium, a plant, fungal, or algal structure producing and containing spores. Humph... maybe in some botany labs where plants are smoked more than studied.
Meade,
Sorry, not the tiniest subatomic particle of sympathy. You could have been rooting for the Seahawks, you know--at least in the privacy of your own heart.
ARM
LOL
CHerry picking indeed. You should pause at the second graph and consider.
LOL
Gas prices are a burden for poorer citizens, which is why public transport and mileage standards are so important. For middle class families the obsession over gas prices is out of proportion given that gas makes up a relatively small (2-4%) fraction of household expenditures.
Shorter ARM: Red staters who have longer distances to drive don't matter to me.
We know, ARM, we know.
Gas prices have fallen too far too fast, and I suspect there are going to be a lot of "unexpected" consequences around and about in the economy before we reach ome kind of rough equilibrium again.
My checking and savings accounts combined earned $0.33 in interest for 2014. This also has something to do with the "unexpected" increase in "income disparity," yes?
And Obama is going to reduce interest rates? How?
The President is apparently right about one thing as of this week, al Qaeda in Yemen indeed appear to be on the run, considering the coup by Shia, i.e., Iranian "violent extremists."
However, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt thus now has an enemy base in their backyard as well as in front, so it is difficult to see that this development is an improvement for the prospects of world peace.
Because "diplomacy."
ARM - your numbers on gas are way off. Reason based on falsehood is not reason!
Have you ever heard of the CES? It figures out how much Americans spend for what, and this is how CPI is calculated. Here is a link to the latest (2011) version.
http://www.bls.gov/cex/2011/Standard/quintile.pdf
If you scroll down, you will get to the gasoline and motor oil component.
Those numbers are (for 2011), by quintile from lowest to highest:
$2,655 (all)
$1,227 (lowest)
$1,981
$2,694
$3,295
$4,073
By percent of total expenditures:
5.3% (all)
5.6% (lowest)
6.2%
6.4%
5.7%
4.3%
For many rural families and for younger workers, gas expenditures can be 10-15% of total earnings from work.
Note that the percentages given above are figured on total expenditures, and incomes are different. For the lowest two brackets, total expenditures are higher than total incomes due to social programs.
For the lowest bracket, income is $9,805, which give gas expenditures of 12.5% of income. For the second lowest, income is $27,117, and gas expenditures are 7.3% of income.
Lower gas expenditures greatly increase incomes of lower income brackets, because they are able to get more work - it is affordable to drive to a lower wage job. The effect is huge.
Compared to the payroll tax rebate, the effect of these lower gas taxes is far, far larger for the lower income brackets.
While surfing for something mindless to zone out on for a few minutes, I accidentally caught one sentence of the SOTU. It included the words "military" and "Climate Change," which made me LOL and move on.
I hope that ARM is not arguing that gas prices are lower because of Zero's policies. Pretty sure his stated policy is that gas, coal and electricity should be more expensive. I think he's worked toward that, and continues to with his CC BS.
Has there ever been a policy which is "evaluated" almost completely based on administration self-reporting in the way ObamaCare is?
Obama said 10 million people have benefitted from it. Where is that evidence?
Does the fact that he blatantly lied about the war on terror success give anybody pause that perhaps Obama lies about other successes as well?
There's one simple rebuttal to every one of these goodies that Obama's proposing--if they are such good ideas, why didn't you propose them back in 2009-10, when your party controlled Congress and the recovery was at its earliest stages? When it might have had greater impact, if in fact these proposals are good for the economy?
Just expose it for the usual 2016 campaign blather. Clearly this cynical man is checked out from presidenting, because he cannot fathom trying to work with the opposition. What a waste--very few people get to be president, and he's wasting his tenure.
MaxedOutMama, thanks for the link. I'd been meaning to look for this!
The U.S. also seems to be "on the run" from Yemen. The Navy has moved ships into the Red Sea in order to stand by for evacuation of American personnel.
Guess ARM has never lived out West...
In ARM's world, everybody lives in cities where mass transit is available, except for the execrable flyover people, who for some reason can't understand why they should vote for people who hate them.
Just look what they are doing to Joni Ernst already. They hate us, they really hate us.
The U.S. also seems to be "on the run" from Yemen.
Ha!
Yes, and Valerie Jarrett was on CNN this morning saying we aren't evacuating yet because it's important for the US to have a presence there. But of course, nothing is more important to the president than the safety of the staff.
How does that make sense? Obviously "having a presence" doesn't mean anything when there is no government. So is it refusal to look like his policy has failed again? Or is there something going on at our embassy like the Libyan consulate "annex"?
Not to hijack the thread or anything, but it turns out that the Patriots did use balls that were about 2 pounds underinflated.
IMHO the league should declare Sunday's game a forfeit and send the Colts to the Super Bowl. Plus take away the Patriot's first round draft choice in the upcoming draft (unless it's already been traded).
"IMHO the league should declare Sunday's game a forfeit and send the Colts to the Super Bowl. Plus take away the Patriot's first round draft choice in the upcoming draft (unless it's already been traded)."
It'll never happen, but the message sent here by the NFL is that you can basically bend the rules to give yourself any advantage, and so long as it isn't egregious enough, the consequences will be minor. Cracking down hard--forfeiting their trip to the Super Bowl--would instead send the message that any rule violation that gives your team an advantage will have serious consequences, so cheat at your own peril.
I'm not sure which one is better from the "make more money for all the teams and the League as a whole" standpoint, which is really Goodell's sole guiding principle.
tim in vermont said...
They hate us, they really hate us.
This is whiny. Remember Joe Wilson's outburst?
We all have complaints.
ARM, Just calling it like it is. You have absolutely no idea what it is like to live in 90% of America.
IMHO the league should declare Sunday's game a forfeit and send the Colts to the Super Bowl. Plus take away the Patriot's first round draft choice in the upcoming draft
The rules say a fine and draft pick(s). Why do you want to throw the rule book out all of a sudden.
MaxedOutMama said...
ARM - your numbers on gas are way off.
Average TOTAL expenditure on energy is 5%. Households spend about 5 percent of their disposable income on gasoline, electricity and other energy consumption. So, the 2-4% figure just for gas costs is obviously not wrong.
The rules say a fine and draft pick(s). Why do you want to throw the rule book out all of a sudden.
They could always go with the standard they developed for Ray Rice. Take the draft pick for deflating the balls, and take away the win for lying about it.
"AReasonableMan said...
This is whiny. Remember Joe Wilson's outburst?"
Yes, "You lie."
Because "he did".
Because there is just something funny about taking away a draft pick of the team good enough to get to the Super Bowl.
Birches said...
Guess ARM has never lived out West...
My parents both grew up in the country and moved back when they retired. They moved to a town where they could walk everywhere and they rarely use a car. A lot of your complaints relate to the remarkably poor town planning that plagues most rural and semi-rural towns.
"Big Mike said...
Not to hijack the thread or anything, but it turns out that the Patriots did use balls that were about 2 pounds underinflated.
IMHO the league should declare Sunday's game a forfeit and send the Colts to the Super Bowl. Plus take away the Patriot's first round draft choice in the upcoming draft (unless it's already been traded)."
LOL I'm no Pats fan but nothing has been proven that the Pats cheated.
AReasonableMan said...
Michael said...
Choose that date which ended the dramatic decline and give me the AA unemployment then and now.
Look at graph 16 here. Peak unemployment typically lags the end dates of recessions, as you would expect.
At a minimum you should use the end date of the Great Bush Recession (grey shading), but really the date of the peak total unemployment would be fairer for comparison since the peak is the product of the depth of the recession. As you can see AA unemployment simply tracks unemployment for other races/ethnicities except it starts from a higher baseline point.
Even taking your date as the basis for comparison, your statement is wrong, based on this data.
1/20/15, 9:39 PM
----------------------------
I love your happy talk but go look at food stamp participation (SNAP) and tell me about how the good times are here.
I like paying $500 for a tank of heating oil instead of $800. And the fact that the $800 mostly left the country because we wouldn't develop our own resource and the $500 mostly stays because we now frack so prodigiously means nothing?
$300 in my pocket per tank is a good thing ARM.
Your numbers were deliberately misleading. Maybe you weren't the deliberate one, maybe wherever you got those talking points was the misleading party.
"Property bubbles with the associated increases in mortgage costs and property taxes are a much bigger concern."
For which we have to thank Fannie and Freddie and the Democrat rent seekers who ran them into the ground with "liar loans."
As for property taxes, why are Democrats so determined to end Prop 13 in California if they care about middle class home owners ?
"AReasonableMan said...
Birches said...
Guess ARM has never lived out West...
My parents both grew up in the country and moved back when they retired. They moved to a town where they could walk everywhere and they rarely use a car. A lot of your complaints relate to the remarkably poor town planning that plagues most rural and semi-rural towns."
First, it doesn't address the statement you quoted.
Second, retired people typically have less places they need to go, and more time to get there.
Finally, even if one agrees with your "planning" statement...the towns are what they are. Cheap gas is easier to attain than a wayback machine.
You are an idiot.
@Curious George, the league has rules about the weight and inflation of balls used in games. These rules were violated. Call it cheating or call it buzzelgump, either way it must be punished and the Colts should be made whole.
LarsPorsena said...
I love your happy talk but go look at food stamp participation (SNAP) and tell me about how the good times are here.
You are right about one thing. Middle income people are subsidizing corporations who refuse to pay their people a living wage. It is a ridiculous system.
I know that young, married engineers who work for my firm have to live many miles out in Virginia and face long commutes to get to work. They do this so they can afford a house with a yard for their kids. We pay well, but these young men and women are mostly living paycheck to paycheck. They should be left alone.
Curious George said...
You are an idiot.
And you are full of shit.
either way it must be punished and the Colts should be made whole
Based on rules that don't exists? Are you suggesting the Colts take it to court? Would you say the same thing if a team was coached to push the boundaries of pass interference beyond the letter of the rule because they noticed they could get away with it?
Come on. I don't like what the Pats did, but seriously, the lynch mob is starting to get pretty comical.
What the Colts need to do is get better.
We pay well, but these young men and women are mostly living paycheck to paycheck. They should be left alone.
No, they should shut up and pay their taxes and whatever ARM thinks they should pay for gas and quit whining!
The Ideal Communist City
Urban planning: Alexei Gutnov and his team set to create “a concrete spatial agenda for Marxism”.
Priceless. Uncle Joe had some great ideas. Why didn't we think to raze cities out west and build them like that? Well, one of us had the forsight! ARM!
The planner’s main concern was ensuring social equality. This was seen in their preference of public transportation over privately owned vehicles, high-density apartment housing over detached private homes, and maximizing common areas.
Stalin indeed was "AReasonableMan."
Didn't Reagan kill communism. If so, why do you keep bringing it up?
Jane, here's the overall page.
http://www.bls.gov/cex/\
Here's the most recent summary, published last fall, which includes data from 2013:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm
I couldn't get into the 2013 tables earlier, but they should be up by now.
Didn't Reagan kill communism?
No, he just showed it to be a failure, the dream lives on in many of the slower of wit. I like pointing this out from time to time as the opportunity presents, as it does many times with yourself and Robert Cook.
"Stalin indeed was "AReasonableMan.""
Well, he thought he was. Remind you of anyone?
@Kirk Parker: Just between you and me, in the privacy of my own heart, I always root for — from a whole pack of Badgers — Russell Wilson.
Blogger AReasonableMan said...
LarsPorsena said...
I love your happy talk but go look at food stamp participation (SNAP) and tell me about how the good times are here.
You are right about one thing. Middle income people are subsidizing corporations who refuse to pay their people a living wage. It is a ridiculous system.
1/21/15, 9:36 AM
-----------------------------
using your logic (corporations refuse to pay a 'living' wage'):
a decline in unemployment (people hired by evil corporations) should be accompanied by a rise in people dependent on food stamps.
ARM - capitalism killed communism. When the Chicoms gave up and rolled over, that was the last gasp.
ARM - here's the 2013 figures in PDF. You do have to scroll through this, but the nice part is that they put in the percentage shares.
http://www.bls.gov/cex/2013/combined/quintile.pdf
Of their expenditures for all households:
Gas & motor oil was 5.1%
Fuel oil & NG was 1.1%
Electricity was 2.8%
That totals to 9% for energy, directly. There's about another 1-2% for indirect (the cost of energy is part of most services, food costs, etc).
Now, look at the middle 20% (the median quintile):
Gas & motor oil was 6.2%
Fuel oil & NG was was 1.1%
Electricity was 3.3%.
That totals to 9.6%. Note again that there is an additional indirect cost related to costs of energy in business and services.
This is the reason that the rise and fall of energy costs has such a huge effect on the economy.
It is true that energy costs have very little effect on Al Gore and Bill Gates, but they have a very LARGE effect on most households.
You have so little information at your disposal that you don't understand what figures are relevant, or even in the ballpark.
Note that because of income constraints, most households have cut their use of heating and cooling to compensate for energy costs! There is also an increasing number of households that have switched to stuff like wood stoves in colder climates. Those are not adequately captured in these figures.
MOM, you are confusing expenditures and disposable income, which is the figure I linked to. You should at least have clicked on the link if you are trying to make an argument.
To put it in perspective if you look at the data above the gas cost line that you quote you will see that people pay more per year for the car than the gas. I am not saying gas is unimportant, but there is a disproportionate concern about this one particular cost. Currently that bias works in Obama's favor. Biases are generally irrational.
“Somehow,” Chu said, “we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe.”
Steven Chu, Obama's energy secretary.
Sure he walked it back, but this is the unfiltered thinking of the man that Obama chose to be his energy secretary after he said it.
Imagine the recession $9 gas would bring on. But there would be all the jobs razing and redesigning cities in flyover country, I forgot.
AReasonableMan said...
Didn't Reagan kill communism. If so, why do you keep bringing it up?
Because knuckleheads like you keep wanting to bring it back in one form or another.
For middle class families the obsession over gas prices is out of proportion given that gas makes up a relatively small (2-4%) fraction of household expenditures.
No its not.
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