२३ जानेवारी, २०१४

"As a candidate for Governor, I announced an aggressive jobs goal," said Scott Walker in his State of the State Address last night.

PDF text here. That aggressive goal is unmet — and Walker's opponents love, above all, to point to that unmet goal — but Walker talked about it, a lot, and spoke the number, 250,000.
When I spoke about our jobs goal more than four years ago, I also made a pledge to help the people of Wisconsin create 10,000 new businesses by 2015. Tonight, I am proud to announce we exceeded that goal with nearly 13,000 new businesses created so far.

This is a great sign for the future as thousands of new employers bring the potential of even more jobs. Think about it, if each of these new ventures grew by 15 employees or more by next year, we would more than exceed our 250,000 jobs goal.
So he spoke openly about the numbers, presenting them in a manner that might instill confidence in his continued leadership. For example:
Private sector job creation between April and November was the best since 1994.
That line impressed me so much as I was watching the speech last night that I jotted down "1994" so I could find it in the text. I think I said "wow" out loud. In the light of day, I see that he's sliced out a very particular time period, between April and November.
The seasonally adjusted private sector job growth from November 2012 to November 2013 ranked Wisconsin higher than Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. According to the latest national report, personal income grew 4.4% over the year; faster than the U.S.

In fact, Wisconsin ranked as the 4th best state in the country for personal income growth from the second quarter to the third quarter in 2013. After years of a stagnant market, a key component of the American Dream, home sales are up by nearly 11% and housing permits are up 12.9%. And according to quarterly and monthly job reports, more than 100,000 jobs have been created over the past three years....

Every time we help someone find a job, it makes for a stronger home, a stronger community, and a stronger state.

Each of these people were looking for a job, or a better opportunity, over the past three years. They represent the people and the families behind the numbers. These are the faces of an improving economy in our state. Wisconsin is going back to work.
Notice not only the presentation of statistics to good effect but also the empathy for people. There were numerous occasions when groups of people — Wisconsinites who got jobs — came out onto the stage, and Walker introduced them all individually — "Joann Stephens from Appleton is employed as a Quality Engineer at Surface Mount Technology, Heyward Gualandi from Madison is employed as a Sales Supervisor at Beechwood Sales and Services..." — and ad libbed with them affably. It was pretty good theater of jobs production. When you crowd people who got jobs onto the podium, it looks like a lot of people.

I also liked when he talked up tourism, especially food-based tourism:
Not only is Asia a major market for our ginseng, many people now come to north central Wisconsin to tour our ginseng operations. Food- and beverage-related tourism continues to grow. From tours of breweries, wineries, cheese factories, cranberry fests, and even spice operations, Wisconsin is a great destination.
Let others do their Napa Valley wine tours. We've got the ginseng and cranberries, not just to be eaten, but to be viewed in their natural habitat.

Here's the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article, with a great photo at the top but studded with Democratic carping about the unmet jobs goal.
[Democrats] point out that the state ranks 37th in the nation in private-sector jobs under Walker's leadership and that the 104,372 private-sector jobs created since 2010 are less than half of the 250,000 he promised in his first campaign.
Walker's ostensible opponent in this fall's election,  Mary Burke, is quoted:
Burke, a former state commerce secretary, said she agreed with using some of the money on worker training and a property tax cut. But she said that because the surplus is only a projection, she would put more money into the state rainy-day fund and pay down state debt.

"I don't know too many Wisconsin families who would rush out to spend money they may not even have on new things, particularly when they've already racked up a bunch of debt and have other bills coming due," Burke said in a statement.
So she's supposedly more careful about debt than the governor who produced the surplus and proposes putting $100 million into the rainy day fund. It's usually the Democrat who seems to want to "rush out to spend money... on new things," but she's saying take stronger action against debt that we don't even think we have? That's not really strange when you see that Walker is proposing a $504 million tax cut. Walker said:
What do you do with a surplus? Give it back to the people who earned it. It's your money. I propose that we deposit a portion of these new revenues in the state's rainy day fund and use the remainder to provide much needed tax relief to you — the hardworking taxpayers of Wisconsin.
Burke analogizes the surplus to a family's unspent money, so this causes tax relief to be portrayed as spending. The family is rushing out to spend extra money it thinks it has, but maybe it should be more careful. Walker's characterization of the surplus rejects that analogy to family budgeting. The government has that extra money because it took more than it needed from the people, so the right thing to do is to return it.

The homely family analogy might be: A daughter tells the parents she's going to need $20,000 to cover her expenses while she's going to college, and they work hard and scrimp to send that money to her. She's grateful and is very careful selecting housing and buying and preparing food and wearing inexpensive clothing and enjoying cheap or free entertainment. She calculates that she's on course to spend only half of that money, so she happily reports that to her parents so they can keep more of their income. That seems to be the morally correct answer, as opposed to thinking: Okay, I don't know if I can keep up this way of living, so I'd better hang onto the money in case it turns out I spend more. 

It's the parents' money!

६२ टिप्पण्या:

Laslo Spatula म्हणाले...

I am finding it difficult to work pert supermodel nipples into this topic. Did Walker create any new supermodel jobs in Wisconsin? One or two would be enough.

MadisonMan म्हणाले...

I wouldn't say I love to talk about any more than I love talking about all politicians' broken promises.

My recollection, though, is that from a historical perspective, the jobs goal wasn't all that aggressive. Historically, when Wisconsin comes out of a period of economic malaise, 250K jobs get added. I did see an analysis about this back during his (first) race for the governor (not the dubious recall), and I think I commented here, back then, about promising such an underperforming number.

I will be happy if jobs return to the state in greater number. I know lots of people looking.

Laslo Spatula म्हणाले...

Supermodels are used to sell things. Selling things stimulate the economy. Supermodels are therefore needed to stimulate. Stimulate, supermodels, stimulate for Wisconsin!

Bob Boyd म्हणाले...

I like Walker, but thanks to you, Althouse, every time I see Scott Walker's name the words "My darling Scotty" enter my mind.

It was funny at first, but now...well its not as bad as having a Donna Summer song stuck in my head, but its close.

Heyooyeh म्हणाले...

Althouse's cruel neutrality is really evident when she discusses Walker.

Laslo Spatula म्हणाले...

I am developing my "Women in bikinis and lingerie are the true engine of America's economy" thesis. Grants accepted.

MaxedOutMama म्हणाले...

Having the goal doesn't mean you reach it, but if it's a serious goal and you keep trying to reach it, you are likely to end up closer to the goal than otherwise.

We have to remember that jobs have been the weak point of the recovery for the whole nation. Thus MadisonMan is right, but our current recovery has declined to comply with history on a national basis. Un- and underemployment should concern us all.

SGT Ted म्हणाले...

The idea that the Democrats will spend less when they are holding office is not supported by any sort of reality.

SGT Ted म्हणाले...

Notice how cutting taxes and letting people keep more of their own money is called "spending" by his future opponent. Giving Wisconsin families some of their money back is something she calls "unwise".

That attitude shows that she thinks all the money belongs to Government and we're just lucky we have Wise People that know when to let us have some of it, if at all.

She is, of course LYING through her teeth that the Democrats would spend less. It's a big fat whopper and anybody with a brain knows it's a big fat whopper.

SGT Ted म्हणाले...

Funny how "goals" and "program success" are NEVER brought up when discussing that the rate of poverty is the same 50 years after 15 trillion dollars have been spent.

But Scott Walkers programs falling short somewhat is a "broken promise".

SGT Ted म्हणाले...

I am finding it difficult to work pert supermodel nipples into this topic. Did Walker create any new supermodel jobs in Wisconsin? One or two would be enough.

Titus, is that you?

garage mahal म्हणाले...

. So he spoke openly about the numbers, presenting them in a manner that might instill confidence in his continued leadership.

The only problem is that it's complete Kremlin-esque b.s. Walker is counting "business entities".

And we're not just talking Little League teams. The Reedsburg Girl Scout troop, Madison Ping-Pong Club, Waupaca Rotary Club, Columbus Historical Society, Oconto Jaycees, Blue Mound Nordic Ski Club, Clyman Lions Club, Three Rivers Bird Watchers Club, Menomonee Falls Choir Association, and Pepin Yacht Club all are in Walker's list of new businesses created. In fact, in Walker's list of new businesses, he is counting 241 organizations with "club" in the title, 102 with "friends," 75 condo associations, 458 associations (mostly real estate), 360 foundations, 211 churches and over 200 with football, baseball or some other sport in the name. Link.

But if each one of these "businesses" hire 15 people each he will meet his 250k jobs promise! But it's not like the media is ever going to fact-check this, and gullible Wisconsin will probably eat it up like candy.

Meade म्हणाले...

But it's not like the media is ever going to fact-check this,

Of course not - because then they would have to report that the jobs have, in fact, been created. Under a Republican administration. Horrors!

and gullible Wisconsin will probably eat it up like candy.

Why do you hate Wisconsin, garage?

Darrell म्हणाले...

Why do you hate America, garage?
Yeah we know, but lie anyway.

garage mahal म्हणाले...

Of course not - because then they would have to report that the jobs have, in fact, been created

And Walker got them all on stage last night.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan म्हणाले...

Darrell said...
Why do you hate America, garage?
Yeah we know, but lie anyway.


Why do people bother with BS comments like this? It is neither funny nor clever, just antagonistic.

MadisonMan म्हणाले...

And Walker got them all on stage last night.

(laugh).

This is my morning chuckle, and I thank you.

Fen म्हणाले...

"Why do people bother with BS comments like this? It is neither funny nor clever, just antagonistic."

Ask Garage, we learned the tactic from him.

MadisonMan म्हणाले...

A daughter tells the parents she's going to need $20,000 to cover her expenses while she's going to college, and they work hard and scrimp to send that money to her.

Meanwhile, a family that doesn't save is awarded a Grant from the Government.

The family that saved was deemed ineligible for the Grant precisely because they saved.

Why does the Govt disincentivize saving?

(Can you tell I have a high school Senior? :) )

Hagar म्हणाले...

There is also something fundamental here; about "returning $500 million to the people" so that they can invest it in economic activity that creates more economic actvity, or "saving it" to use for more government action to restrain all these undisciplined people from running around and creating change we have not approved of and who knows where it all will end?

I have not put it too well, but there is something like that underlying - risk taking vs. fear of the unknown.

Matt Sablan म्हणाले...

"Meanwhile, a family that doesn't save is awarded a Grant from the Government.

The family that saved was deemed ineligible for the Grant precisely because they saved."

-- Every time one of my college friends talks about getting the government to wipe out student debt, I think about how the government gives incentives to do the wrong thing.

I've aggressively paid down my debt, to the point of living in pretty crappy neighborhoods and skipping on vacations and the like. If the government wipes out the debt, I've literally made the wrong choice by being responsible.

You run into the same trap when you look at buy/rent decisions, when the government thinks about coming in to protect irresponsible [as opposed to just legitimately cheated] home owners. Again: If the government comes out to retroactively help people who bought instead of renting, the responsible money decisions were the wrong choice.

garage mahal म्हणाले...

I stole 2 billion dollars from schools and workers. But, I'm going to give 500 million back. Because it's your money! Well, you won't get much back at all, but my rich friends will. Thanks guys.

rehajm म्हणाले...

I also liked when he talked up tourism, especially food-based tourism

Wisconsin is about to become one of golf's meccas with Mike Keiser's Sand Valley development adding to established destinations in Kohler and Erin Hills. WI will easily be top 5 in the world.

Hagar म्हणाले...

Also the idea that shared misery is preferable to unequal good fortune.

rehajm म्हणाले...

Job growth is always a misleading statistic. For may years Massachusetts was one of the worst in job creation yet was top 5 in unemployment at the same time. WI tends to fall somewhere just above median, which is quite an accomplishment considering it's mix of manufacturing. Ask New York or Michigan how it's going for them.

B म्हणाले...

A large component of state-level job growth is the health of the national economy. When Walker made the pledge, I'm sure his team was using national projections as a benchmark.

I don't judge a governor on total jobs, just on relative performance compared to neighboring states or states with similar industries.

victoria म्हणाले...

A politician who doesn't follow thru on his promises? Horror!!!!!! S.O.P. Standard Operating Procedure. /he is no better than the rest of them.



Vicki from Pasadena

SGT Ted म्हणाले...

And garage chimes right in to confirm that he and the Democrats he votes for do indeed think all that money belongs to the schools and State Union pigs at the trough and not the people that had their money taken by Government via taxation.

Walker creates a surplus that provide for future emergency spending and a tax cut to give some of it back and, according to garage, that's "irresponsible".

What we SHOULD be doing, what garage asserts is "responsible", is pissing it away giving it to the Unions who will then fund the Democrats election campaigns.

Give people back their money when you've taken in too much: "Irresponsible".

Spending the surpluses to overpay an utterly corrupt Government/Union Complex Employee tax money laundering scheme: "Responsible Spending".

It has to be a mental disorder. Or, garage was counting on getting one of those phony baloney Union jobs.

Mark म्हणाले...

AP [Scott Bauer] just reported that the welder who Walker got up on stage last night was a registered Sex Offender.

You can bet they checked the recall database on all of them, though.

Walker's choice of friends has never been his strong suit.

The jobs pledge [now renamed goal] was a stupid metric to pose for himself. Like MadisonMan said, in 2010 with the economy and jobs in the absolute crapper, forecasts called for much more.

I'm certainly going to keep his strong words then in my mind as I evaluate his statements. He made it a center part of his campaign, this walk back is ballsy to say the least.

David म्हणाले...

Got to say Garage is right about the business entity stat. Also that this has been a slower than usual job recovery. But Walker has the guts to measure employment by jobs created, and not unemployment stats. Measure Obama by net jobs created and see how he looks. He's propped up the workforce leavers.

Calvinus म्हणाले...

Love the "borrowing from parents for college" analogy. Walker should use that.

Curious George म्हणाले...

"garage mahal said...
I stole 2 billion dollars from schools and workers. But, I'm going to give 500 million back. Because it's your money! Well, you won't get much back at all, but my rich friends will. Thanks guys."

LOL. Good luck with that message. Mary Burke won't even discuss Act 10. Why weren't all the Dems wearing their orange T-Shirts last night. I mean they aren't even as fucking dumb as you.

Oh, and under Doyle we LOST 100K + jobs. And 27,000 businesses. Wasn't Mary Burke his commerce secretary? Why yes, yes she was.

Keep clinging to all your delusions garage. This BS. John Doe. But the only way Walker's leaving anytime soon is if he moves to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

garage mahal म्हणाले...

But the only way Walker's leaving anytime soon is if he moves to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Thanks for the laugh man. Walker is a media creation and that ends the second the national media starts in on him. He will ripped to shreds.

Meade म्हणाले...

"the second the national media starts in on him. He will [be] ripped to shreds."

I totally agree. One more reason we've got to keep him in Mad-town.

garage mahal म्हणाले...

AP [Scott Bauer] just reported that the welder who Walker got up on stage last night was a registered Sex Offender.

This guy couldn't sign a recall because he's a felon. He has that going for him though. And he's white.

Rusty म्हणाले...

Garage doesn't hate Wisconsin. He just wants it run more like Illinois.

Darrell म्हणाले...

Oh, and under Doyle we LOST 100K + jobs. And 27,000 businesses. Wasn't Mary Burke his commerce secretary? Why yes, yes she was.

I'll take the unreasonable man's suggestion and highlight the best point made so far. The Democrats lost against Walker because of the lousy job they had done. The State would be giving Illinois a run for its money as the worst-run State in the Union now if they occupied the Governor's Office of Wisconsin. However bad Walker's numbers are, they would be worse with Democrat grifters calling the shots.

garage mahal म्हणाले...

Doyle! Yea he's the problem here!

Curious George म्हणाले...

"garage mahal said...
Thanks for the laugh man. Walker is a media creation and that ends the second the national media starts in on him. He will ripped to shreds."

Cool. We can keep him!

Original Mike म्हणाले...

"It's usually the Democrat who seems to want to "rush out to spend money..."

She will, as soon as she gets into office.

Ann Althouse म्हणाले...

Those pointing to the sex offender: do you think people convicted of crimes who have served their sentences should be discriminated against when they seek employment? If so, how much?

Ann Althouse म्हणाले...

Should those with a criminal record be blocked from a path to a constructive life?

Would you bar them from voting?

Curious George म्हणाले...

"Blogger garage mahal said...
Doyle! Yea he's the problem here!"

100,000 jobs lost. Huge tax increases but still huge deficits. 27,000 business gone.

So yeah, he is the problem. As far as mary Burke?

"I support Gov. Doyle’s policies entirely"

Pretty sure Walker will look awesome in the jobs department.




mccullough म्हणाले...

Texas job growth is pretty astonishing, and people keep moving there. Tough to do that in the Midwest no matter who is governor. The Midwestern states, like New England and New York, have a declining percentage of the population and will continue to do so. But these states and their cities will be stuck with retiree pension and health costs based on a previously higher percentage population. So you see the problems in Michigan and Illinois when people don't address the problems until it's too late. Indiana did. Wisconsin seems to be doing it as well. Walker's administration deserves credit for that, but the jobs growth is not going to be what he promised.

Mr. D म्हणाले...

Those pointing to the sex offender: do you think people convicted of crimes who have served their sentences should be discriminated against when they seek employment? If so, how much?

Joe the Welder.

MadisonMan म्हणाले...

Would you bar them from voting?

No.

Given how easy it is to break laws in this country, restricting felons from voting is a bad idea. And why are there so many laws? Because legislators can't resist the notion to do something about this problem! Otherwise, they're derided as do-nothings.

garage mahal म्हणाले...

100,000 jobs lost. Huge tax increases but still huge deficits. 27,000 business gone.

I doubt these stats are true, it sounds like they came from Walker. Even if they are, why is that our neighbor has created twice as many jobs as WI? Hmm, wonder what they did differently. They don't have the John Birch Society running things?

Fact is, again, Wisconsin was over-performing other states from the recession,(11th) and Walker is under-performing other states (dropping to 37th.)

mccullough म्हणाले...

Garage,

Which neighbor? Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, or Michigan?

Original Mike म्हणाले...

"I've aggressively paid down my debt, to the point of living in pretty crappy neighborhoods and skipping on vacations and the like. If the government wipes out the debt, I've literally made the wrong choice by being responsible."

There's a word for people like you (and me). Suckers.

I've never been able to figure out if liberals do not understand the concept of incentives, or if they don't care.

garage mahal म्हणाले...

Which neighbor? Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, or Michigan?

Minnesota.

Michael K म्हणाले...

"I will be happy if jobs return to the state in greater number. I know lots of people looking."

Maybe after Obama leaves office and assuming it's not Hillary replacing him.

Michael K म्हणाले...

"I've aggressively paid down my debt, to the point of living in pretty crappy neighborhoods and skipping on vacations and the like. If the government wipes out the debt, I've literally made the wrong choice by being responsible. "

Don't you know that saving is immoral ? Why do you think millions of elderly are barely scraping by with their savings in bonds like you are supposed to do when you get old? Zero interest rates are great for stock speculation but pretty tough on savers.

Michael K म्हणाले...

"Walker is a media creation and that ends the second the national media starts in on him. He will ripped to shreds."

No, that was Abortion Barbie. Wrong state.

mccullough म्हणाले...

Garage makes a good point about Minnesota. Wisconsin and Minnesota are very similar in population and demographics so employment and other social-economic indicators should match up pretty well. I wonder how much can be attributed to the fact that the twin cities are more vibrant and a better place to live than Milwaukee?

Curious George म्हणाले...

"mccullough said...
Garage makes a good point about Minnesota. Wisconsin and Minnesota are very similar in population and demographics so employment and other social-economic indicators should match up pretty well. I wonder how much can be attributed to the fact that the twin cities are more vibrant and a better place to live than Milwaukee?"

MN had a GOP governor and legislature...we had a Doyle. So we went into this recession in worse shape. We also had 1-1/2 years of assholes like garage staging two rounds of recalls.

But you know what resembles WI better than MN? Wisconsin. Garage can't look at the Doyle years, because they are a mess. Sadly his candidate is the second coming of Jim Doyle.

Mark म्हणाले...

I am all for the felon moving on with his life. I am unsure if someone with 3 OWI convictions, a sex offender charge, and multiple parole violations are the example he wanted.

I would note that the articles about it say that the company has now started investigating his hiring ... let's see if they continue to employ him. I bet he isn't working there in 6 months, if not sooner.

Walker mentioned that he was unhappy with the vetting of this guy today [don't put words into my mouth that Walker himself spoke] ... perhaps he did not realize `I vetted them' only meant checking them on the recall database.

Mark म्हणाले...

I do have to love the endless beating of the Doyle drum.

Should we talk about the Bush recession, then?

I don't think you want that can of worms opened, maybe I am wrong.

Curious George म्हणाले...

"Mark said...
I do have to love the endless beating of the Doyle drum.

Should we talk about the Bush recession, then?

I don't think you want that can of worms opened, maybe I am wrong."

Go for it. Inherited the economy from Clinton, as well as 9/11. Recovery in first term. Growth until housing bubble popped due to DNC housing policies.

Next?

garage mahal म्हणाले...

I do have to love the endless beating of the Doyle drum.

Should we talk about the Bush recession, then?


Blaming Doyle for the recession is all Walker and his flunkies like Curious George have. Even though Wisconsin weathered the recession better than most states. A lot of people will believe it because Wisconsin isn't accustomed to having treacherous liars like Walker around.

edit -- to see what sort of ghoulish liars I'm talking about see the post above this. Clinton inherited 9/11? That's top grade hackery there.

Michael K म्हणाले...

"Clinton inherited 9/11? That's top grade hackery there. "

No, Bush inherited 9/11 from the feckless Clinton whose Sec State said, "We didn't ignore terrorism. We had meetings on it every week !"

In the same fashion, the Iranian consequences might arrive after Obama leaves office but they will arrive.

Fen म्हणाले...

Yep, the Clinton team responded to terrorist with the law enforcement (instead of military) model - don't capture OBL unless we have enough evidence to convict. That only emboldened Al Queda.

Revenant म्हणाले...

I'm not particularly a fan of Walker, but I do give him points for actually mentioning that he missed his goal. Few politicians (or CEOs for that matter) are willing to do that.