County by county: here. At this point, the Republican that was not supposed to win is ahead, and the Republican that seemed to have a decent chance is behind, with both races breaking 55/45%.
UPDATE, 9:32 Central Time: The Democrat who was supposed to win has now been declared the winner.
UPDATE 2: And... both Democratic incumbents win. Fine with me. I did not like the "fleebagging," but I don't like recalls either. Let's have regular elections and take them seriously, then accept that elections have consequences. This all politics, all the time crap is ridiculous. Okay? Everybody settle down. If you must be political, aim at November 2012.
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polls mean nothing as only the results count.
Kenosha
Candidates Votes %
Jonathan Steitz (REP) 5882 53.53
Robert W. Wirch (DEM) 5092 46.34
Write-in 14 0.13
Beat the AP again.
Oneida
Simac 4,674 Holperin 6,007
Kenosha
Candidates
Robert W. Wirch (DEM) 11268 54.46%
Jonathan Steitz (REP) 9395 45.4%
I think this is going to be a bust.
Not going to report it from here on out.
She's from Vilas (Eagle River) and they're still at 0%
@madawaskan: Where are you getting that info from? JSOnline is slow updating, and none of the tv channels here in Madison have results tickers! (Of course, they did last week for hours.)
I would presume a split would make most here, not counting garage, happy.
So in the Wirch race, Walworth is shown as reporting 1/1 with 0 votes for either candidate. Mistake, or epic yawn?
Don't worry. Waukesha has not reported yet!
Does this mean that Feingold is still playing to win?
Both Dems to win easily, conservatives crushed yet again.
Chalice I can't get anything out of Florence-but I can tell you the winning bids for lumber.
I would presume a split would make most here, not counting garage, happy.
Both districts have been solidly Democratic for decades, so a Repub win in either would be a definite upset.
Can anyone navigate the Florence County website?
Is it so small that it's negligable
Even if Simac and Steitz lose, which is the likely case, the Republicans will hold a small majority in the state senate, a large majority in the state assembly, the governorship and a small majority in the state supreme court. I don't see how the Dems can declare a victory here, but they will.
The unicorn brigade will now yelp about recalling Governor Walker. The (big) first step is to round up a minimum of 740,000 verifiable signatures on recall petitions. Not as easy as it sounds.
How eager are the big unions to lay down the kind of money a re-call campaign will require, after blowing a reported $30 million on an unsuccessful attempt to win a majority in the state senate? Not eager at all, I'd bet.
Race has been called for Wirch.
Jeez
they still don't have Langlade and I had that in the Libertarian cruise thread.
Langlade
KIM SIMAC
2,295
DEMOCRAT JIM HOLPERIN
1,942
17 out of 27 reporting
"I can tell you the winning bids for lumber."
What??
The intelligentsia in Madison still let you cut down trees??
You silly backwoods folks...
OK they got Forest.
Most are saying on Twitter that its over - Wirch will win solidly and Holperin performed well in Dem. wards to hold off Simac, with a likely spread in the 52-47 range.
Im sure it will disappoint some to see Simac not beat Holperin, but I think at no time the GOP thought they would win; I think they were overly optimistic due to the big wins they got last week that Dem turnout would be depressed and Simac would sneak in, so to speak. That hasnt happened.
A 17-16 Senate. Still GOP control, but now the GOP will have to "coddle" certain waffling moderates to push through what Walker wants to do for the rest of his first term.
Keep in mind that all of these districts are in play again in Nov. 2012. With better candidates, the GOP could easily pick off one or two more of these districts the next time around.
So, the bottom line: unions spent some $30 million, gained 2 state senate seats, and Walker still has gotten everything he wanted passed. Epic fail.
Simac probably needs better than that out of Langlade, the way things appear.
Also, do you have the link for Florence?
K.C.
The intelligentsia in Madison still let you cut down trees??
Ha!
*******
Getting the information direct from the county websites that believe in transparency.
I never thought much about Wisconsin, but my impression is changing.
The landscape is lovely.
The runaway Democrats are appalling.
The voters who vote for them?
Words fail.
hoop-
This is all I can find-
http://www.florencewisconsin.com/
Ga!
I'm going to look at the ward breakdown-that might go a really small county.
Thanks. Didn't know if you had seen the numbers there somewhere. I couldn't find 'em either.
I don't see how the Dems can declare a victory here, but they will.
They'll spin it as a a small incremental step "forward." The question is, does the movement have enough momentum to oust Walker with Feingold?
Don't know if this was mentioned earlier, but almost half of District 12 is done by hand count.
(Twitter linky)
Here's the pdf for Oneida which you guys can refresh and get the results before the AP.
oneida.wi.gov
Don't know if this was mentioned earlier, but almost half of District 12 is done by hand count.
Argh!
I looked at the wards in Florence really small.
Langlade
is done.
KIM SIMAC
3,271
HOLPERIN
3,257
Write ins 17
Oneida
Simac 6,422 Holperin 8,862
I doubt Simac will close the 2,400 vote gap when she didn't even win her home county. Now just hoping garage doesn't get his predicted double-digit-percentage win out of spite!
From my seat, it looks like Holperin has it.
I think this is done.
Ya I'm glad you guys went in first-because last time here it was shoot the messenger and all that.
Now is it all in Dale Schultz's hands?
Yioh!
Well, it was fun. At least for those who don't live in that mad house of a state. ;-)
So: what are the odds of a Walker recall now?
Is that how the math works out-Schultz the Republican that voted with the Dems is in the cat bird seat.
Jounal Sentinal had this to say about Walworth County:
Madison -- Those watching the recall election results in the 22nd District of Sen. Bob Wirch (D-Pleasant Prairie) may be confused by the turnout in Walworth County.
While the AP reports that the county's one precinct has already reported, there are no votes for either side. What gives?
According to Reid Magney, spokesman for the state Government Accountability Board, the small Walworth County precinct represented by Genoa City may only have a couple of voters in the precinct, and the case may be that "they're both out of town."
Wow, does that make us sound hick-ish.
Oh ya PPP had the polling on the idea of the recall
50% oppose 47% for it.
But they also have Feingold beating Walker.
Calypso
Ha!...jeez time to get glasses-your bluish avatar looked like chickenlittles'.
Plus I got a bit of tunnel vision looking at all those county websites.
Catch you guys later.
TOTAL RECALL!!!!
So: what are the odds of a Walker recall now?
None. It was never realistic from the start, and not regaining the state senate cemented that.
Is that how the math works out-Schultz the Republican that voted with the Dems is in the cat bird seat.
He voted with the Dems on one thing - the budget repair bill. Why? Because his wife is a district administrator at the school district in his home town, Richland Center, and he was pissed off at Walker for not allowing him to present his "compromise" bill. He actually voted for the budget itself.
He is a waffling moderate that will like the attention, and the GOP will probably throw him a bone or two to keep him in line, but you also have to remember that he is a former majority leader in the senate, so he wont stray just too far from the party line.
And just as an addendum to my post about Dale Schultz - he has said publicly that he will NOT switch parties or become an independent. So the Dems can forget about that idea. Its not going to happen.
Like I said - he was a former majority leader in the senate. He will probably annoy Walker and the GOP leadership by being an obstacle on certain things unless he gets things he wants, but he is not going to stray too far. His no vote on the budget repair bill has more to do with his own family than it does him hating Walker.
Now just hoping garage doesn't get his predicted double-digit-percentage win out of spite!
Don't think I predicted that homey. 7 pts., if I recall. And 14 pts. for Wirch.
So [another] good night for fleebaggers eh?
garage belongs to the "ends justify the means" camp. No morals, except the Commie way.
No morals, no honor.
Oh shut up, Alex.
Nice to see a pic of old Mr. Mission Accomplished. I had sort of forgotten about him.
BREAKING:
WI Dems take a blood[less]bath,!
H/T Drudge
This is not what you call "a piece of cake."
And, for Simac, for her first time out ... she did better than the other republican contestant.
She also learned a great deal about the business of "politicking" ... Not easy! But a lot of people now know her name. And, should she decide to run again ... she's gonna be the one with name recognition. It's not a lost cause for someone "the first time out."
AND, Simac got something few politicians get. Through this site!
That the voters divide?
You knew that going in!
That there's a lot at stake?
YUP.
(If you go to the blog post on Obama's using the word "TAXES") ... and you think this makes him fail ... I don't think so!
"TAXES" is a word that's been "group" tested. Even if you hate it. There are lots of people who think it's one of those solutions that shouldn't be tabled.
Don't look to make enemies!
Don't name call!
Learn from your experience. That's what lumps are fore.
Wonder how the GOP control of everything in WI will effect these folks for re-election when they re-design the districts - My guess is it is Going to be like Ohio, Democrats outside, looking in
The elections were less silly than cynical, and were the opposite of the democratic ideal of accepting the results of regularly scheduled elections.
Some serious consideration should be given to the abuse of recall elections, whose purpose in 2011 was to overturn the results of the 2010 Wisconsin elections seating a Republican Governor and legislative majority. Public servants should indeed be subject to recall for crooked personal dealings and corruption, but not for simply displeasing sorehead minorities with out-of-state war chests.
That was not what Democracy sounds like. It was a perfect storm of special pleading, ginned up by public 'service' unions whose demands for extraordinary wages and benefits were a large part of the financial deficit faced by the citizens who pay the State bills.
Wisconsin would be well advised to narrow the provisions allowing recall elections, to head off future instances of well-funded special interest groups cynically truncating the full terms of recently elected legislators simply for voting 'wrong', or acting in the public interest against those special interests.
Another wrong headed analysis by Althouse.
The recall elections worked for the Dems, they cut the margin in the senate from 19-14 to 17-16. That is huge, it will make it much easier for the Dems to take over the senate in the next election. They will use the recall process frequently when they see a vulnerable GOP politician.
Next time the Dems will be more scientific about the recall process, polling to understand where to most efficiently direct their recall money.
It looks like Wisconsin voters also accepted the unconstitutional and undemocratic fleebagging tactic, since no fleebagger was defeated during the recalls.
Presumably we'll see more fleebagging and recall elections in Wisconsin in the future since both tactics worked for the Dems.
at the end of the day the GOP still controls the legislature--do I have that right
Steve Koch said...
Spot on.
Steve Koch said...
Another wrong headed analysis by Althouse.
The recall elections worked for the Dems, they cut the margin in the senate from 19-14 to 17-16. That is huge, it will make it much easier for the Dems to take over the senate in the next election. They will use the recall process frequently when they see a vulnerable GOP politician.
I really don't see any analysis by Althouse, just some opinion and expressed desire. I do see plenty by you.
Success by the Dems? Hardly. They won one seat back that they were going to take anyway in the next cycle. The other will be won back by the GOP. This is almost a certainty with the redistricting. So $30 million later the Dems still don't have a majority, and will be right where they were going to be if the did nothing. Huge? Yawn.
Next time the Dems will be more scientific about the recall process, polling to understand where to most efficiently direct their recall money.
This is an even bigger laugher. I don't think there will be any more recall efforts, the next wave is eligible next year, but we have a fall election so I can't see a recall effort happening...why recall when you can take the person out a few months later in a regular election? Why divert monet when you have a general election a few months later.
I don't think they will even try Walker, but if they do, your statement still doesn't apply. That's statewide.
But your point really has no point...targeting money is important when there is a lack of it. That certainly wasn't the case here. Every Senate district contested had ample money in it's effort.
It looks like Wisconsin voters also accepted the unconstitutional and undemocratic fleebagging tactic, since no fleebagger was defeated during the recalls.
More stupidity. "Wisconsin"? The recall efforts against fleebaggers were in two Senate districts, both traditional Dem districts. How do you extrapolate that to "Wisconsin"? You're not alone in this "Wisconsin" thing...the state gets referenced as a whole quite often for the actions of a minority. Hey, we are not just the epicenter of lefty lunacy, we are ALSO the epicenter of conservative change. We elected an aggressive conservative Guv, and had a huge swing to the right in both houses of our legislature. They collectively enacted conservative change, and then fought off national union $$$ and an enraged base in the SC race, and now the recalls. You want HUGE, there it is.
Presumably we'll see more fleebagging and recall elections in Wisconsin in the future since both tactics worked for the Dems. Actually I don't think so. As I pointed out, the next real chance will be in two years, it will come after a general election, so by then will be too late.
@Jason
You've got your head in the sand. The odds are not zero and Nate Silver's analysis after the last six elections indicated that Walker is vulnerable. I suspect that these numbers back that up, but I would like to see an updated analysis from him.
"Roger J. said...
at the end of the day the GOP still controls the legislature--do I have that right"
Yep.
The recall elections worked for the Dems, they cut the margin in the senate from 19-14 to 17-16. That is huge,
Um, the unions spent more than $10 million to win a Democratic district and one where the incumbent had an affair with a young women and moved out of the district and still received 49% of the vote.
Oh, and Republicans won 53% of the votes cast.
Oh, and there is a thing called redistricting which you'll find all about next November.
Yes, "huge" are the lies you're telling yourself.
"I don't think there will be any more recall efforts, the next wave is eligible next year, but we have a fall election so I can't see a recall effort happening...why recall when you can take the person out a few months later in a regular election? Why divert monet when you have a general election a few months later."
This does not apply to a number of members of the State Senate. They were elected in November 2010 to a 4 year term and were not eligible for recall this year, but will not be up for reelection until November 2014. They will NOT be up for reelection in November 2012.
Got an email from AFT this morning glorifying the Democrats' victory in the recalls, 5-4. I guess we should be happy that in this case, everyone seems to believe they have won.
"JohnnyT1948 said...
This does not apply to a number of members of the State Senate. They were elected in November 2010 to a 4 year term and were not eligible for recall this year, but will not be up for reelection until November 2014. They will NOT be up for reelection in November 2012."
True, but the GOP eligibile at that point all won pretty easily, and will have the benefit of redistricting. There are also many Dems on the plate. Vinehout a Dem is most vulnerable. Add the fact that $$$ are needed for the General...not gonna happen.
I'd say "Onward" meaning "now let's back to the mundane business of governing" but some on the Left would hear it as "Next up, Walker!"
I am surprised Simac came within ten points, makes me think some folks have a very narrow view of the issues. I can understand the split in Langlade where the women knock out their front teeth for various reasons, and many pride themselves on being the Red Necks of river country.
where the women knock out their front teeth for various reasons
Such is the meanspirited condescension of the sheltered academic looking down on the stupid, ugly, misguided, little people from his ivory tower.
One of the many reasons I'm glad to not live in Madison full-time.
I can understand the split in Langlade where the women knock out their front teeth for various reasons, and many pride themselves on being the Red Necks of river country.
Where are the "low-sloping foreheads"?
What a condescending jerk R-V can be...
Hey I have a good friend who runs a business in Langlade and spent some time with him in the local bars, I like to run the Wolf River, and many folks are proud to call themselves Red Necks, and yes some of the girls do knock out their front teeth. I am not so much looking down on this, I buy rounds all around, but just describing one slice of society, While most of these folks are not rich, they do own land in the area, but good jobs are tough to find. So last time I visited, asked a few times if they voted for Gov. Walker, and a vast majority said yes, and as I liberal II feel that they are voting against their best interests, which I guess may sound condescending. But in truth I like some of these "Red Necks," as they call themselves, for their wild life style in what can be a very harsh place to live in winter-- By the way they have some of the best mt. biking and cross country ski trails in the state--
I'm surprised so many people here don't get Roesch-Voltaire's humor.
Hmmm...
Some say this signals the return to normal.
A small, isolated, blip on the screen.
Nothing to see here...move along.
Others, correctly in my view, see this as the gateway to the permanent kinetic election-
One thing I've learned about leftist: They never give up.
I believe Althouse is fond of a certain video of one of your favorite sons saying as much.
"Nothing to see here" or "head in the sand"
No one knows just yet.
But, for one to dismiss the other out of hand is, dare I say, "wrong".
Roachy dude I love you but humor is not your thing. Just sayn'
With winning spreads of less than 30 points surely there will be recounts and litigation and protests and perhaps puppets?
NOT CLOSE!
BIG TURNOUT.
Tells a story that there are people on both sides of the divide. And, the democraps have more of 'em.
For Obama, last night, was good, good news. Because Wisconsin, ahead, is considered a TOSS UP STATE.
So sad for Republicans. Just when they think the whole nation is tacking Right and ready to throw O out and apologize for cleaning congress and the white house of the perps of the greatest financial disaster since the great depression something comes along to throw cold water in the face of such profound and utter self deception. Maybe memories are not that bad after all? Maybe Faux News isn't as influential as they think they are. Maybe the Babe Squad of the Far Right, the Charlies Angels of Crazy are just too damn crazy after all. Oh the anguish. Just maybe the root of the Dems troubles is that they are TOO cooperative with the Right and their base is not happy. And maybe the prospect of turning the wheel over to the dame drunken drivers of yester year will re-energize them. On Wisconsin
With winning spreads of less than 30 points surely there will be recounts and litigation and protests and perhaps puppets?
I read this and thought of football games for some reason. Would make for an interesting season.
If 14 Dems went a-fleebagging, why were only two being recalled? Are those the only two that are in districts after the last redistricting that had any possibility of being turned from the Dark Side? Didn't they get enough signatures in the other 12 districts?
Or did the unions spend a lot more money gathering signatures than the Republicans?
I would hope that a lot more Wisconsinites would be outraged at the tactic of evading your responsibilities than sticking around to fight for your principles. But if that were true there should have been a lot more than 2 Dems up for recall.
Pragmatist said...
So sad for Republicans.
Uh-huh:
They tried to hang Ryan’s plan around the neck of state senators Sheila Harsdorf and Alberta Darling.. In a June interview with Politico, he outlined his plan to confuse Wisconsin voters by tying their state senators to the Ryan plan. “We’ve got them on camera with Paul Ryan. We’ve got them on the record saying they support the Ryan agenda. And I think it’s something that voters are going to weigh in on,” Tate said. “I think the list of Republicans who are going to lose their seat because of Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan is not just going to be starting at the federal level.”
Darling’s opponent, Assemblywoman Sandy Pasch, posted a page on her campaign website declaring “Alberta Darling Works with Paul Ryan to Cut Medicare.”
Teachers’-union activist Shelley Moore, Harsdorf’s opponent, said the incumbent Republican wanted to “eliminate Medicare” by “standing with Ryan” — a claim for which she received a “pants on fire” rating from Politifact.
Yet none of these attacks seemed to do any good. Harsdorf trounced Moore, 58–42, actually increasing her margin of victory from the 56 percent she received against Democrat Allison Page in 2008. That same year Darling won by a single percentage point, yet in her recall election, which Tate called the “crown jewel” of the Democrats’ effort, Darling whipped Pasch by eight points.
It is fun to watch the lies the left must tell themselves in order to get through the day...
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