"Hasan Piker’s Twitch-streamer Marxism or Zohran Mamdani’s telegenic democratic socialism. Notable as those tendencies may be, the Democrats’ fundamental condition is a late-Trumpian stasis — in which the president’s stark unpopularity encourages his opponents to imagine that they can keep everything basically as it was in the Biden era, with the same broad priorities and deference to activists and interest groups, and float back to power automatically. The continuing appeal of Harris is a useful indicator of this stasis. Yes, she is unlikely to be the 2028 nominee, and part of her support is name recognition...."
Harris is ahead in the polls for the Democratic nomination in 2028. The
Real Clear Politics average has her up by 9.3 percentage points. The most recent poll, from Harvard-Harris — has her up by 28 percentage points. Here's her closest competition:
Posts
88 comments:
This is what happens when you set Gavin to "Full Power".
Isn't the previous candidate always the front runner at this stage? I'll be shocked if Harris is the ultimate candidate.
Looks like he wants me to pick a card.
Sorry people but Harris won’t be the nominee. The focus of the Democrats now should be to regain the house and subpoena power so that the corruption and malfeasance of the Trump administration can be fully investigated.
The assumption that the Democrats will hold actual binding primaries is without evidence.
Steve Uhr suggests that the only chance the Democrats have of defeating Trumpism is by lawfare, not by legitimate elections.
Hey, Pinky!
Is douthat does he not read the room (rhetorical)
It’s Happy Hour somewhere, Steve.
"Steve Uhr suggests that the only chance the Democrats have of defeating Trumpism is by lawfare, not by legitimate elections."
When have Democrats ever supported legitimate elections? Just look at their recent primaries.
Gavin Newsom says: “Young men where Trump has invested so much they don’t vote in those numbers.”
Of all eligible (registered and not registered) voters what % voted in 2024:
18-45 males 55%
18-45 females 60%
Newsom is wrong on a lot of things but he’s right on what matters.
"It’s Happy Hour somewhere, Steve."
Ha!
Like the bourbons they have learned nothing
We do a “family book club” with the kids (22&25). Just discussed tonight my choice of “Being There” by Jerzy Kosinski. I used Barack Obama as a discussion point but Gavin Newsome or Kamala Harris would work as well.
You'll have to narrow it down a little, there's 3 men in that picture.
I think abortion is his strategy. White man style.
What do you think it's saying?
Since Dobbs, we've outperformed him in every election.
Am I hearing him right?
His brain has skipped over the 2024 election like it didn't happen.
Bizarre.
How old is that clip?
In another thread Temujin writes: “ . . . we spent a few decades drugging our young boys, then teaching them that they (males) were toxic, evil, and future rapists.”
These young men need to recognize their power, register and then vote 2026
Not a lot of people jumping on the Newsom train.
I encourage the Dems to nominate Harris in 2028. Marco or JD will destroy her. It wouldn't be close. The debate would be a laugher. She's an idiot.
"the president’s stark unpopularity." With NYT readers? I think he's the greatest President in my lifetime and in the Top 10.
I figure it may be Anthony Weiner since he is stepping back into the Political arena, and "He's changed!!"
https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2024/12/10/anthony-weiner-files-papers-for-city-council-run
Kamala’s book is doing surprisingly well. And she will get the women’s vote. If the Dems win the 2026 midterms, then spend the next 2 years impeaching Trump and smearing Vance (who needs to lose weight, shave the beard, and stop being so satisfied with himself) and smearing Rubio, who knows what will happen. Which is why men need to register and vote Republican 2026.
SC: Newsom is talking about the female vote . . . and he is correct.
I think he might be referencing this poll, which shows Kamala Harris beating Trump in Iowa, right before the election.
Trump won Iowa by 13 points, and sued the pollster for fraud and election interference.
So that's my guess, this interview is referencing the Trump-Harris race. This is why he says the Democrats have won everything since Dobbs.
What jumped out at me is that deer-in-the-headlights look he gets after the reporter asked him why the poll gave him confidence. It was kind of like, "oh shit, that fraudulent poll isn't giving the reporter any hope on its own, I have to explain why she can win."
And then he admits that she probably won't win Iowa (e.g. the poll is fake), and he regurgitates her campaign strategy
Kamala’s book is doing surprisingly well.
I've heard she dishes on a lot of Democrats, so maybe it's a good read?
My instinctive response to any politician's book doing well is that dark money is buying it by the truckload.
See also Hunter Biden's artistic skills.
See the pustulent horror that california has become any questions
It would be really interesting/fun if Kamala ran, using the Donald Trump template of trashing your own party in the primaries. I think a lot of people would respond to that, primarily because most politicians are obviously phony.
So maybe her book is a new strategy of seeing how popular she might be if she completely torches Democrat politicians.
I think a sizable number of voters don't like both parties and the phonies we get who run for office.
So this isnt a rhetorical question why do women in mass vote the wrong way every single time
So this isnt a rhetorical question why do women in mass vote the wrong way every single time
One of the biggest challenges Newsom faces is that his party is so gung-ho for identity politics, that his skin color and balls will decrease voter turn-out among his racist and sexist base of voters.
They vote for mamdani for newsom for hochul am i missing one
Scumbag Newsom looks like Lloyd Bridges in Airplane! Picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue, did we, Gav?
Got those hands waving, got the upper torso shimmy and shake, got those head tilts, those white teeth, those sincere blinks. He looks like f*ckin' Howdy Doody.
Slouching Toward Kamala Harris is a play on Robert Bork's book, Slouching Towards Gomorrah.
He's suggesting Biblical horror if she's the candidate.
Mamdani ran a consciously positive campaign and is a very good retail politician, terrible policies or not.
The D's seem to forget that you have actually like the country you intend to govern.
The mega-donors will let us know what they decide.
Dogs and cats living together human sacrifice
It was a campaign for idiots now they are more screwed up then they atarted with
Women are actually more pro-life than men. Which makes sense to me, as women are the ones who get pregnant and feel the baby kicking.
I think Trump polls badly among women because his rhetoric can be brutal/funny, and many women prefer calm men to bombastic men. I think a certain number of women are simply frightened of Trump, and vote accordingly.
I think this will be almost completely irrevelant in 2028, as Trump won't be on the ballot. And both Rubio and Vance are exceedingly calm men.
Two thoughts:
Douthat seems to be correct about how Democrats are thinking. It's how they have been thinking for a while and they do not strike me as having the most nimble minds. They are stuck between their socialist wing and their traditional (I grew up as a Democrat) wing.
Kamalala-ding-dong is only ahead in polling because of name recognition. Everyone in the business knows that.
I think a certain number of women are simply frightened of Trump, and vote accordingly.
Very true. That is also why the Democrat media villainize every Republican candidate. It is all about manipulating the broad female vote.
Exactly how stark is that unpopularity, I haven’t been paying that much attention to polls.
I think his hand gestures are awesome.
Yep they are betraying him
Begley: "I encourage the Dems to nominate Harris in 2028."
Yes, I am feeling like the dog in the Far Side cartoon with a sign taped to the dryer saying "CAT FUD" and thinking "oh please oh please oh please...."
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/46021227413602934/
CC, JSM
"These young men need to recognize their power, register and then vote 2026"
Eva Marie is right. Young women's votes are not going to be helping anytime soon.
The one with the nazi grandpa
Michigan Dem Mallory McMorrow defends tweet trashing rural America, extolling coastal elites https://share.google/y0f1e0GAnuWRWntkD
There probably not is a more inept candidate than Harris. I just can’t think of who that might be. She has never won a delegate in a contested Presidential primary yet she has been both a Presidential and a Veep nominee. Something is very wrong here.
wendybar: "I figure it may be Anthony Weiner since he is stepping back into the Political arena, and "He's changed!!""
Yes, you can't beat the Wiener!!!! The Wiener won't shrink from a fight!!
The NY Post headlines write themselves. CC, JSM
Yes, the Democrats are too stuck on hating Trump to actually have any policy ideas. Will they just go back to Bidenism if they take office again? Will the nominee actually promise that the Democrats would open the Southern border, stop oil leases and pipelines, restore DEI to what it was, and malign the police? One possibility is back to Obama or Clinton. Another is a lurch to the left. Another is that they think anti-Trump will be enough and they'll figure out what to do afterwards.
Amnesty and "dreamers" are probably on the menu. So is "mending fences" with Europe. Back to DEI tokenism. What else?
Newsome. I believe it was Kevin Millar who called Derek Lowe a "Himbo." Neither Derek Lowe nor Gavin Newsome should ever be in charge of anything. And Derek Lowe actually has accomplishments.
Harris is ahead in the polls for the Democratic nomination in 2028.
Another "Brat Summer"? Ok then.
All that's needed to sort out now that Trump will be out of the picture is who's the Republican candidate the Democrats will try to kill.
Get your popcorn.
“Young women's votes are not going to be helping anytime soon.” No they’re not. Slowly they will be peeled away but not quickly enough for 2026 and maybe even 2028. Which is why the male vote is so important. Especially with DEI, etc. they need to register and bote.
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Why "slouches"? Would anything that slouches be scary? I asked AI why Robert Lowell was looking for "love cars" in his poem and AI gave me an excellent answer (he really was a nutter, a Mayflower crazy). AI says "The "slouching" suggests a slow, inevitable, and menacing arrival, replacing the "spiritus mundi" or Christian era with a "blank and pitiless" new reality." I guess that will have to do until a better prompt or better AI chatbot comes along.
…the only sure thing is the cabal’s nominee will be the nominee. If they’re pushing Kamala they must have some election ‘magic’ up their sleeve…
Kamala will wind up in a drunk tank long before winter 28 rolls around. and it will probably be part of her strategizing for the election. Numbskull
The Dems could copy Trump's policies, tell the MSM to shut up, tell the teachers' union and SEIU to stay home, etc. Run as MAGA without that evil gauche man Trump and his evil gauche buddies. They might lose some true-believing leftie extremists. But they'd gain people from core Dem constituencies: blacks sick of illegals sucking up welfare money, women sick of crime, LGBs sick of the Ts, Jews who just want to wear a kipa in public again, etc.
Similar to "how would Gore have handled 9/11?" - "Exactly the same way as W, but without Code Pink hassling him."
CC, JSM
Iman said...
It’s Happy Hour somewhere, Steve.
5/3/26, 5:06 PM
SUE!
Most important 2026 election is Maine, with the Nazi Fisherman running against Liberal Woman.
"...There probably not is a more unqualified candidate than Harris...."
FIFY
Dems prefer Nazi Fisherman to Liberal Woman. We’ll see how that plays with the voters.
Hamas with a Haircut in NYC, now it’s Oops Accidental Nazi in Maine.
Walz 'n Karma-la
"Saint Croix said...
Kamala’s book is doing surprisingly well.
I've heard she dishes on a lot of Democrats, so maybe it's a good read?
My instinctive response to any politician's book doing well is that dark money is buying it by the truckload."
The usual game is to have their campaign/PAC/etc buy the book and then give it to their supporters.
"Most important 2026 election is Maine, with the Nazi Fisherman running against Liberal Woman." I would have thought that the librarians would have come through for Mills, but they don't have the money I guess.We'll see how the general election shapes up.
Democrats are not serous people. In fact they are fools. Nothing else explains the popularity of known failures like Harris and Newsom. What exactly about those people, their accomplishments, performance, or intellect makes you think they would make good leaders of the free world?
They don't care about leading, it's all about the grift.
I don't socialize or network much, but I know a dozen people who would make better Presidents than either of them, and that's just in the As in my phone contacts, including AAA Trash Removal, LLC.
If the Dems take back both houses, any Republican that votes to impeach Trump needs to be dealt with.
"They don't care about leading, it's all about the grift."
Sure, among the connected, but what's wrong with all the regular voting Democrats. You can ask them why, and they got nothing, but they will still have no second thoughts, because they never really had the first one. It's pure reflex.
What is Newsom on?
"Doing that crazy hand jive."
"It's pure reflex."
Forget it, Jake- they're Democrats.
"You can ask them why, and they got nothing, but they will still have no second thoughts, because they never really had the first one."
They're collectivists, they'll believe what they're told to and what everybody else in the group does. No thinking necessary.
In the comment section here, people on the right often have criticisms of something Trump's done. How many of the leftists here objected to anything Biden did?
LMAO at Mason. What meaningful Trump critique is there here?
If the Althouse Blog is where you look for people critiquing Biden, you are nuts. Just engage any Bernie or AOC supporter to hear an earful about Biden.
Newsom acts like he's got a lot of Bolivian Marching Powder pulsing through his veins.
Green blight, DEIsm (e.g. racism, sexism) replacing meritocracy, political congruence, sanctuary States, and California burns while Asses bray in selfieish adoration.
This one made me laugh out loud. So much better than SNL. The Gov'na
LOL Barry, that's hilarious
He's a twitch, and they seem to like it.
Ross Douthat. That name seems vaguely familiar.
Original Mike said...
Isn't the previous candidate always the front runner at this stage? I'll be shocked if Harris is the ultimate candidate.
Hillary didn't run in 2020. So no.
The usual rule has been "you get one shot at a general election, you lose that, you're gone". Trump broke that, and won, so now the Dems may think they can do the same.
There was no Dem 2024 Primary, so there's no "Primary 2nd place headed for 1st place in next one". Harris can push her victimhood story "I was only give X weeks and almost won, I need a full campaign", and some Dem votes are clearly dumb enough to fall for it.
On the GOP side it's Vance if he wants it (with his small kids, he might not want it), and "God only knows" if he doesn't, although I'd have DeSantis and Rubio as two of the top contenders in that case.
On the Dem side? I don't believe that anyone has an actual clue at this point. Their biggest problem is that the Obama Admin destroyed the Democrat "bench", as was displayed in 2020. Who are the "name" Democrat Governors?
Newsom: Who is busy flaming out on a national level, because what works in CA doesn't work at the National level
Shapiro: Whose a Jew, and the Democrat base hates Jews (which is why they're supporting the Nazi in RI)
Evers? Who else?
The Democrats are obsessed with hating Trump, and dont' understand that the majority of Americans don't share their insanity. And beyond that they have nothing to offer?
Vote for us, and we'll sterilize your kids, let guys beat up your daughters and stare at them in the shower, let illegal aliens rape and kill you, steal your job, steal you tax dollars, and drive up your taxes, and always fight for the other side to win!!11!
This is not a winning message
"This is not a winning message"
Which is why, when it comes to voting, they cheat.
I think this will be almost completely irrevelant in 2028, as Trump won't be on the ballot. And both Rubio and Vance are exceedingly calm men.
I'm fine with either of them, or with DeSantis, but I am declaring for Rubio right now. He has been very impressive at handling everything Trump has put in his portfolio, and a lot more right-wing than I thought he would be. And don't underestimate how well his ethnic background will help him. Yes, it's not a simple question of Hispanic solidarity. Mexicans don't particularly care for Cubans. But he is going to explain to them in their own language how they have been suckered and used by the Democrats, and how their natural hard-working entrepreneurial tendencies will be thwarted and exploited by a party that now has more in common with the Chavistas than with any ideals of American liberty. I think he will push the Republican share of the Hispanic vote over 50% for the first time ever.
The usual game is to have their campaign/PAC/etc buy the book and then give it to their supporters
That obviously happens, but what REALLY drives the scam is for corporations and NGOs who want to curry political favor to buy the books en masse, and immediately send them back to the paper mill or the landfill without taking them off the pallets.
Vance will eviscerate her.
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