Althouse: Sunrise in the rain.

May 17, 2026

Sunrise in the rain.

Write about whatever you want in the comments.

The flowers are Golden Alexander.

98 comments:

Ignorance is Bliss said...: They are golden. But my name's not Alexander; 5/17/26, 6:43 PM
john mosby said...: Surely!; 5/17/26, 6:45 PM
Bob Boyd said...: 2 F-18's collide during air show at Mountain Home AFB in Idaho

Video:
https://x.com/i/status/2056089780518305868; 5/17/26, 6:48 PM
Not an oldster. said...: No war updates?
No USA, USA, USA?
No new scalps to justify the taxes spent?

What fun is that, ammirite?
Hopefully kid rock went up this weekend so they'll have some jolly tales to tell... You and meade enjoying watching those duffy girls criss cross the country with Sean and Rachel? Do they call them Sean and Rachel... on the road? What a hoot...; 5/17/26, 6:49 PM
narciso said...: Those are beautiful; 5/17/26, 6:49 PM
narciso said...: https://x.com/pharmacyinusa/status/2056049354675192178; 5/17/26, 6:50 PM
Iman said...: Peruvian owls always hunt in pairs. It’s because they are Inca hoots.; 5/17/26, 6:53 PM
Eva Marie said...: @IiB: Surely, it is.; 5/17/26, 6:56 PM
Eva Marie said...: lol, I’m too late.; 5/17/26, 6:56 PM
Wa St Blogger said...: There is a debate amongst philosophers that we cannot prove that logic can come about by naturalistic means. We cannot use the logic we have to prove that logic exists. It becomes a circular argument. By the same token can I use logic to prove that man is entirely illogical?

Case in point: Someone scanned a real Monet painting and posted it as a supposed AI generated image in the style of Monet. Subsequently critics of all sorts found harsh words for the image suggesting that it was a very poorly rendered image, not at all like a real Monet.

It got me wondering first, if Monet were not already famous, would art critics treat a painting by Monet reverently or harshly? In other words do we assign value to an object or idea based on our perception of the source rather than an objective review?

And to put it in political terms, if the information is deemed to come from one political party its value is entirely determined by the expectation on the person observing it (ie, what party they identify with), rather than by the independent judgement of the information.

All this to say, with logic I am proving that humans don't actually use logic.; 5/17/26, 6:58 PM
john mosby said...: So when the whole Thucydides Trap remark from Xi was being analyzed, many cried out to hear Victor Davis Hanson's reaction.

Well, VDH's ep yesterday (recorded Friday) has his analysis.

First, he says if the Thuc Trap analogy holds at all, Red China is not the rising challenger - we are. The US is making a sudden improvement in its standing and ability to influence the world. The PRC is not. Also our goals and interests are quite different. What would we get by winning a war against the ChiComs? What would they get from winning a war against us?

Second, he attacks Graham Allison's understanding of the Peleponnesian War. Athens was not some upstart. It had been around for a while. Athens and Sparta had fought before. The P-War happened, of course, but not because Sparta suddenly realized they had to stop these Athenian whippersnappers. It happened the same way most wars happen.

He goes on to attack some of Allison's other Thuc Trap situations. For instance, Germany as an upstart power to Britain before WW1. Germany was no threat to Britain, or even to its colonies. WW1 was mostly about Central Europe and the two big German-speaking empires competing with Russia.

On the whole, though, I think VDH is butthurt that a non-classicist is taking the Peleponnesian War in vain. If the Thuc Trap stands for the more general proposition that major powers stumble into war with each other, that's certainly true. You could call it the Thuc Trap or you could call it the Dumb Statesmen Trap.

So there you have it. CC, JSM; 5/17/26, 7:00 PM
Iman said...: GERRYMANDERING
MA: 36% Republican, 0 seats
CT: 42% Republican, 0 seats
ME: 46% Republican, 0 seats
NM: 46% Republican, O seats
NH: 48% Republican, O seats
RI: 42% Republican, O seats
VT: 32% Republican, 0 seats
HI: 38% Republican, 0 seats
DE: 42% Republican, 0 seats

IT'S ONLY BAD WHEN REPUBLICANS DO IT?; 5/17/26, 7:01 PM
Big Mike said...: Over on Instapundit they have a post about a guy who posted online a copy of a real Monet painting of water lilies and asked the viewers describe how it differed from a real Monet painting. No one seems to have caught on. From the article:

“Critics, however, were eager to point out all kinds of “obvious” details that show why the “AI” Monet can’t hold a candle to a genuine Monet. One person even took the time to write out an 850-word breakdown of the AI work’s shortcomings.“

One critic went do far as to write that the allegedly AI-generated (but actually genuine) Monet “looks like sh*t and is sh*t.” Ah, not quite.

It’s a new take on a very old meme — go look up Aesop’s fable called “the Clown and the Countrymsn” — but folks still fall for it.; 5/17/26, 7:03 PM
Iman said...: My wife said she likes a man who smells expensive… so I upgraded to premium unleaded. Now I smell like money (and a slight fire hazard).; 5/17/26, 7:15 PM
narciso said...: Actually herman wouk came up in a speech in 1980, referring to the Soviet Union; 5/17/26, 7:17 PM
Iman said...: After having been to the dog room and released, a Hamas fighter kept getting re-arrested for attempted stabbing of Jews and sent back to prison.

While arresting him for the fourth time or so, IDF said to him: "Admit it, you don't come here for the Jew-killing, do you?"; 5/17/26, 7:19 PM
john mosby said...: Nick Shirley has a nice ep up with him on location at Tommy Robinson's march. A nurse looking to be in her late 40's practically raped him on the street, she was so excited to see him. Nick loved how the marchers were chanting "Keir Starmer's a Wanker" to the tune of "Seven Nation Army." One dude had an ingenious T-shirt that said STUCK FARMER (think about it). Another dude, with a bizarre face tattoo, said without irony, "I don't recognize my own country anymore." As with other marches of this type, there are non-trivial numbers of minorities. There are a lot of old Iranian flags, with the lion. Can't tell because of the crowd if Persian people are carrying them.

Nick even managed a walking interview with Tommy. Tommy made an interesting point comparing the Somali colonization of Minneapolis to what's happening in UK.

Also a walking interview with a very articulate but also, um, very gifted woman dressed as kind of a Jane Bull, in a Union Jack hoop skirt and a lace-up bodice that's doing a lot of work, iykwim.

Worth watching.

https://youtu.be/pup5aaZ0FAA?si=UcAiqT4imP0UdZdV

CC, JSM; 5/17/26, 7:25 PM
john mosby said...: I stopped too soon. Nick even got to go up on stage and address the event. He also made the analogy between the MN Skinnies and the UK rape gangs. He did not mention the rape gang of British women that seem to be ready to jump him. CC, JSM; 5/17/26, 7:30 PM
Christopher B said...: Iman, while I understand the argument most of those states are pretty poor examples. DE and VT only have a single Representative. ME, NH, HI, and RI only have two. NM does have three, CT five, and MA 9. It is quite possible that given the distribution of Republican voters, and the relatively low percentages, it is not possible to create a reasonable district with a Republican majority. At best you might get 6 Republican Congressmen out of the list but it would still look gerrymandered.; 5/17/26, 7:37 PM
narciso said...: Well that would be indecorous john mosby; 5/17/26, 7:48 PM
narciso said...: Take california please they are losing populatiob but not from the areas that have gop districts; 5/17/26, 7:50 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Gas prices up about 50% since Biden.

More importantly, what about the ballroom?; 5/17/26, 7:54 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: YouTube : In Michigan The Dead can vote

...and can Dance's the host of seraphim.; 5/17/26, 7:58 PM
narciso said...: https://open.substack.com/pub/michaelsmith/p/the-gospel-according-to-useful-idiots?; 5/17/26, 8:05 PM
narciso said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 5/17/26, 8:05 PM
narciso said...: Going back to our discussion of dracula i think coppola intended it as a homage werner herzog in his own weird way
Copied by eggers which are about dread, whereas other versions like langellas are more about seduction then there was dan curtis's take; 5/17/26, 8:08 PM
narciso said...: Langellas was john badham between saturday night fever and wargamea (theres a leap) very classically done hammer films tried to elide the top extremes; 5/17/26, 8:10 PM
Achilles said...: Christopher B said...

Iman, while I understand the argument most of those states are pretty poor examples. DE and VT only have a single Representative. ME, NH, HI, and RI only have two. NM does have three, CT five, and MA 9. It is quite possible that given the distribution of Republican voters, and the relatively low percentages, it is not possible to create a reasonable district with a Republican majority. At best you might get 6 Republican Congressmen out of the list but it would still look gerrymandered.

Illinois, New York, and California have the most absurd maps in the country.

That doesn't even count the mail in ballot issue.

California turns red if there is in person paper ballots with voter ID and purple thumbs.; 5/17/26, 8:11 PM
Mason G said...: U.S. Energy Information Administration
U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)

Jun 2022 - $5.036
Apr 2026 - $4.236; 5/17/26, 8:12 PM
narciso said...: Yeah otto is inumerate as irrational; 5/17/26, 8:13 PM
narciso said...: https://amgreatness.com/2026/05/17/the-golden-thread-and-the-defense-of-the-west/; 5/17/26, 8:17 PM
narciso said...: Terence fishers take is barely canon (settings and all) set about a quarter century before the novel, in germany but christopher lee makes it passible; 5/17/26, 8:19 PM
rhhardin said...: Airshows have always had great crash videos.; 5/17/26, 8:21 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: The net increase since Biden's inauguration remains well above 50% (closer to 80–90% right now). The April data fits consistently within that upward trend from the low baseline in early 2021. No contradiction—prices rose sharply under Biden, fell later in his term, and have spiked again in 2026.; 5/17/26, 8:30 PM
Original Mike said...: "prices rose sharply under Biden, fell later in his term, "

Prices fell? I doubt that.; 5/17/26, 8:39 PM
narciso said...: When they looted the strategic reserves magnitude greater than tea pot dome; 5/17/26, 8:40 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Gas prices are higher at gas stations in every state than they were last month, 6 months ago, and 1 year ago.

But on Althouse they are WAY DOWN and coming down even more every day!; 5/17/26, 8:43 PM
DINKY DAU 45 said...: A crap deal comin gup OBAMA LITE, where trump has little option but his crap 20 year till sunset nuclear options and wont get a team of inspectors like we had and the STAITS will never be the same as before the WAR of choice was started.IRAN will never give up its nuclear ambitions, they have been in WARS since the 12th Century a guy like trump aint gonna do it. Like OBAMA said we did it all and not a single bomb ,and Americans taking it up the dark side of the moon.Watch and see,trump keeps saying well maybe 20 years ain't too bad(over and above dead American military and an economy in the toilet. The NO PLAN attack has him baffled.Straits still under IRAN, enriched material still in Iran(how much more than making?) DEAD,SOLDIERS, everything up under trump policies,gas,food,health insurance you name it, while trump building a pool,an arch and a clubhouse and your paying! BAFFONARY...; 5/17/26, 8:44 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: OG Mike write: "Prices fell? I doubt that."

No, it doesn’t contradict.
Jan 2021 (Biden start): ~$2.39
April 2026: $4.236 → +77%
Mid-May 2026: ~$4.51–4.60 → ~+89%

The original “about 50%” was a conservative/understated figure. The actual net increase since inauguration is closer to 80–90%, even after the 2022 peak.

The April 2026 number is lower than the June 2022 high ($5.03) but still far above the 2021 starting point.

No contradiction.; 5/17/26, 8:46 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Video: A very small dog on a very big leash

#big and small; 5/17/26, 8:46 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Airshows have always had great crash videos.

It looked like they were going for a "belly buck". Then again, that can't be right. It's too risky to use and airplane to do something like that. Imho.; 5/17/26, 8:52 PM
narciso said...: https://youtu.be/3ANufwUPFm8?si=_tzu6HZPfTTBuv1x; 5/17/26, 8:55 PM
narciso said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 5/17/26, 8:55 PM
Mr. T. said...: Wow. Even if they are running against their own party rapists, the Leftists STILL have to cheat and commit felonies to win...

https://www.wlky.com/article/kentucky-house-candidate-morley-stealing-campaign-flyer-drops-out/71297057

Hey KKaK/Richsockpuppet/paidActbluetrollaccount(TM) - is there any of your people who are NOT rapists, thieves, murderers, or pedophiles?!; 5/17/26, 8:55 PM
narciso said...: Is that a rhetorical question?; 5/17/26, 8:58 PM
William said...: Another whistle gets blown in Hollywood, and I must say I'm truly shocked at this one. I had known for years that Lassie was a cross dressing male, but there's more to the story. Lassie, a fully grown adult male, was grooming Tommy Rettig for years. All that help "Tommy, he fell down the well" was just setting him up for when the so called "Lassie" could make his move and jump on Tommy.....Tommy Rettig was hesitant in coming forward until now, but the recent Kristof column gave him the courage to come out. Perhaps other victims will come forward. I always thought that there was something a little off with Rin Tin Tin.; 5/17/26, 8:58 PM
Original Mike said...: I was talking about all prices, not just gas.

I guess Epstein is passé now.; 5/17/26, 9:01 PM
narciso said...: Has the Times no shame, as churchill put 'we already established that'; 5/17/26, 9:02 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: In paragraphs 1-19 of today’s story on Trump’s Jesuspalooza, evangelical zealots are repeatedly quoted stating that separation of church and state has no historical basis. The only actual historian consulted isn't quoted until paragraph 20. For a busy NYT reader, it's hard to know who to believe.; 5/17/26, 9:05 PM
Mason G said...: Leftards didn't have a word to say about $5+ gas prices when Brandon was in office. So clearly, "gas prices" are not the actual topic here.; 5/17/26, 9:10 PM
Aggie said...: #woof; 5/17/26, 9:10 PM
Narr said...: I'm with William on Rin Tin Tin--and the stories about Mr. Ed are unbelievable.; 5/17/26, 9:11 PM
Lazarus said...: Compare where we were 50 or 60 years ago with where China was and tell me they are the dominant power and we are the rising one. Maybe China's rise is fizzling out, but it has been impressive. We were putting a man in space while they were starving. That spells dominant power. Our fortunes have taken an upturn recently. Things weren't so bright in the Biden years. VD Hanson has some valuable things to say sometimes, but he does know a thing or two about sophistry. Since the Gulf War, I don't trust him so much.

It's clear that things changed with nuclear weapons. Countries aren't as quick to go to war with each other, so the Thucydides trap isn't as real as it once may have been. I'm not sure Hanson is in the clear about WWI, though. Britain and Germany did see each other as rivals. If they'd been able to resolve their conflict maybe war could have been avoided in 1914. If you like, though, maybe Germany feared the rising power of Russia.; 5/17/26, 9:30 PM
Jamie said...: Compare where we were 50 or 60 years ago with where China was and tell me they are the dominant power and we are the rising one.

This is absolutely a fair point, but so is Hanson's about how we are rejiggering the world order. So maybe the problem is that "Thucydides trap" isn't the right historical metaphor.

Note: IANA historian! But I do respect Hanson's cred and (usual) ability to analyze the present in view of the past, so I don't dismiss him lightly. However, yeah, you have to stretch things pretty far to say that the connection between the Middle Kingdom and modern China is sufficiently unstrained to claim that they're the current dominant power.

It seems more likely to me that Xi and his advisors are no fools and understand full well that the journalists and most leaders of the progressive West love them an underdog. Hence, despite China's having devastating demographic problems, an economy built on sand, and a still-pretty-sclerotic worldview (the one common thread, for sure, between them and the Middle Kingdom, ISTM), they're a "brash young upstart."; 5/17/26, 9:47 PM
Iman said...: Remember when we could remember everything?

Those were some good times.

Probably…; 5/17/26, 9:50 PM
Prof. M. Drout said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 5/17/26, 9:52 PM
Iman said...: A Reminder: There is no law that prevents socialists from pooling their money together to fund all their good
ideas.; 5/17/26, 9:55 PM
Prof. M. Drout said...: Massachusetts absolutely is Gerrymandered (after all, the 'Mander was named here). The 7th district chops up Boston weirdly and then puts out a pseudopod down to Randolph to concentrate as many black voters as possible to be represented by the loathsome Ayanna Presley. Surrounding that pseudopod is the 8th, my district, which uses Southie, Dorchester, and Quincy to overwhelm the suburbs that make up the rest of the district--which is why we have the enormous loser Stephen Lynch as our rep. And then there is the 4th, which was created for Barney Frank so that he could come from Newton (and get lots of Newton money) even though the rest of the district is made up of Attleboro, Taunton, and the rest of Bristol County which is more working class and far less tied to Boston economically.
It would be a piece of cake to make a compact district that would elect a Republican in Mass by lopping off some of the northern part of the ridiculously stretched 9th district (it doesn't LOOK stretched because all the maps show it including all of Cape Code bay so you don't realize how long and skinny it actually is).; 5/17/26, 9:55 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: The whole system is too corrupt to reform; it can probably only be defeated, which appears to be in the process of happening.

The "new" shipbuilding program will probably be a failure similar to the Carter administration's synfuels project two generations ago.

Executing a significantly failed overall "defense" strategy is still failure.

Let's remember just what the Thucydides Trap really is: the strong -- the neocon backed military industrial complex and its overseas empire -- do what they will and the weak -- the disenfranchised American voters and taxpayers -- must suffer what they must.; 5/17/26, 9:57 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: Dementia Joe (or whoever was in charge) spent the first two years of his term trying to hobble the oil industry. If you track the monthly price of oil you can see he/they were pretty successful. At that point they apparently realized his reelection chances would be significantly reduced if they didn’t change course to lower oil prices. This led to the raid the national reserves. All done in service of saving Joe’s wrinkled bacon.; 5/17/26, 9:59 PM
Iman said...: 13th Amendment: Abolished slavery
100% REPUBLICAN Support
23% DEMOCRATIC Support

14th Amendment: Gave citizenship to freed slaves
94% REPUBLICAN Support

15th Amendment: Right to vote for all
100% REPUBLICAN Support
0% DEMOCRATIC Support; 5/17/26, 10:00 PM
Lazarus said...: Reading Roger Kimball and thinking back to Leon Wieseltier. It's not that the tech moguls are "illegitimate pirates." It's that tech is always developing and always giving us new things. It's also that the flow of information is too large and too fast. That's why the return to the humanities that Kimball (and Wieseltier) want isn't going to happen.

Wieseltier's talk of the "humanistic mentality of mystery, obscurity, patience, beauty" sounds a bit like he's already defeated. Earlier generations of scholars in the humanities were convinced that they were expanding the range of human knowledge and dispelling mysteries.; 5/17/26, 10:01 PM
Iman said...: Give a Democrat a fish and he'll eat for a day.

Teach a Democrat to fish and he'll steal your rod, take your
wallet, fuck teh fish, and then blame President Trump.; 5/17/26, 10:03 PM
Dave Begley said...: The professor who addressed the graduates of the University of Minnesota Law School on Saturday gave a completely inappropriate speech. The student speaker was much worse. She said Minneapolis had suffered a “federal occupation” and that students patrolled neighborhoods at night. Students also carpooled to school because they were afraid of ICE.

A whole bunch of political activists and not that many lawyers.; 5/17/26, 10:04 PM
gilbar said...: typical democrat
https://foxbaltimore.com/news/local/wes-moores-afghanistan-story-starts-to-unravel
Moore was asked about his duties in Afghanistan. “I was an infantry officer, military police officer and then became special ops when I joined the 82nd Airborne Division,” Moore said.

Based on Army records, his answer was not true.

Those records show Moore was not an infantry officer, was not qualified in any special operations field and did not deploy to Afghanistan to perform either role.; 5/17/26, 10:05 PM
Iman said...: It's only settler colonialism if it comes from the special European region. Otherwise it's just sparkling violent conquest and subjugation of native populations.; 5/17/26, 10:06 PM
Iman said...: Of Interest: A photo of Khamenei's body had been shown to President Trump and he quipped “he still looks in better shape than Joe Biden!”; 5/17/26, 10:10 PM
Michael Fitzgerald said...: narciso said...
"Going back to our discussion of dracula i think coppola intended it as a homage werner herzog in his own weird way
Copied by eggers which are about dread, whereas other versions like langellas are more about seduction then there was dan curtis's take"

Interesting. The Herzog is one of his greatest movies and my personal favorite of his. The scenes with the empty post-plague city filled with rats and animals wandering around and people feasting and partying among the corpses is based on historical record but informed by a documentary Herzog made called LA Souffriere (I think) about a French colony built on a volcanic island. In the 70's the volcano came to life and threatened to erupt so the citizens of the entire island were evacuated. Herzog took his camera and small crew and went there, walking through the abandoned city, cars in the roads, businesses and homes left with the doors wide open as if the entire population had minutes to flee, and goats and dogs and monkeys running around everywhere. Herzog made a good number of excellent, unusual and artistic documentaries that ranged from a few minutes to 20 or so minutes long. That is one of his best.
The Dan Curtis Dracula I watched last night for the first time since I was about 10. Very good for a 70's made-for-television feature, and Jack Palance is a favorite villain ever since Shane.
I was tempted to watch the latest version by Eggers, but the more I saw of it, the more it seemed like a degraded imitation of the Herzog, so I passed.; 5/17/26, 10:12 PM
Iman said...: REMEMBER HOW WE GOT HERE:
• HILLARY CLINTON SUPPLIED IRAN WITH URANIUM TO ENRICH THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

• BARACK OBAMA GAVE IRAN $1.7 BILLION THAT THEY USED TO FUND THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

• JOE BIDEN UNFROZE OVER $16 BILLION OF FUNDS FOR IRAN; 5/17/26, 10:36 PM
Iman said...: https://accordingtohoyt.com/2026/03/01/memes-we-waited-42-years-for/; 5/17/26, 10:38 PM
Achilles said...: Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...

In paragraphs 1-19 of today’s story on Trump’s Jesuspalooza, evangelical zealots are repeatedly quoted stating that separation of church and state has no historical basis. The only actual historian consulted isn't quoted until paragraph 20. For a busy NYT reader, it's hard to know who to believe.</b.

The Constitution of the United States is only good for a Nation of Protestant Christians.

It will fail for any other people.

The United States was always meant to be a Christian Nation. The 1st amendment was intended to be freedom OF religion.

Democrats pretend it means freedom from religion.; 5/17/26, 10:57 PM
Achilles said...: Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...

The whole system is too corrupt to reform; it can probably only be defeated, which appears to be in the process of happening.

The "new" shipbuilding program will probably be a failure similar to the Carter administration's synfuels project two generations ago.

Executing a significantly failed overall "defense" strategy is still failure.

Let's remember just what the Thucydides Trap really is: the strong -- the neocon backed military industrial complex and its overseas empire -- do what they will and the weak -- the disenfranchised American voters and taxpayers -- must suffer what they must.

A chinese agent speaks.; 5/17/26, 10:58 PM
Eva Marie said...: @Iman: lol My favorite: British Citizens Politely Ask If They Can Be Liberated From Radical Islam Next
but they’re all great: Bibi asking Macron for help lolol; 5/17/26, 11:10 PM
Eva Marie said...: Chess has a term - zugzwang - for a position in which every available move makes things worse. The difference is that in chess, you’re forced to move. In politics, you choose. And yet the Democrat Party keeps choosing badly. The deeper problem isn’t the individual choices. It’s how they got here.
Every ideologically driven decision shed moderate voters. That left a base that was proportionally more activist and more demanding. Which pushed the next decision further left. Which shed more moderates. The base didn’t just shrink - it radicalized as it shrank, because the people willing to compromise kept leaving - RFK jr for example.
The Jackson nomination illustrates where that process leads. Now when Democrats talk about expanding the Supreme Court, voters don’t picture a distinguished jurist. They picture five more Ketanji Brown Jacksons. Even committed Democrats who might eventually have serious cases before the Court can’t welcome that prospect - they need a predictable court.
This is what makes the trap so difficult to escape. Politicians are coalition-builders - that’s their actual job. A base that punishes flexibility doesn’t just shrink the party, it destroys the fundamental tool politicians use to grow it.
Welcome to zugzwang, Democrats.; 5/17/26, 11:22 PM
john mosby said...: Eva, you should write a book called The Youvotedforthese Trap! CC, JSM; 5/18/26, 5:14 AM
rehajm said...: Lynch comes in to the place where I get my hair cut. He is literally greasy…; 5/18/26, 5:28 AM
narciso said...: They want five more kbjs; 5/18/26, 7:24 AM
RJW said...: Eva @ 11:22, the problem with your argument, which is nothing new here, is that it’s so cultishly one-sided and divorced from actual reality.

RFK Jr. isn’t really evidence of moderates fleeing Democrats because they went too far left. His path was anti-establishment and outsider politics long before endorsing Trump.

Meanwhile, Republicans had plenty of leaders who were brutally critical of Trump and later bent the knee. Lindsey Graham called Trump a “race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot” and just yesterday said the GOP is “the party of Donald Trump.” Cruz, Rubio, Vance, etc. once rejected Trump for who he really is and now reside so far up his ass they can taste the Big Mac. Trump hasn’t changed. They have. So in reality (a tall order here I know) it sounds less like one party losing moderates and more like politicians adapting to where their base moved. One might say, they sold their souls. Cassidy comes to mind for voting for the quack RFK Jr.

On Jackson, saying court expansion means “five more KBJs” is also interesting because Democrats openly argued representation mattered, while Republicans openly relied on Federalist Society style vetting and ideological consistency. Both parties have appointment priorities.

The broader point about activist bases trapping parties is fair. But that seems like a bipartisan problem, not uniquely Democratic.; 5/18/26, 7:41 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Dave B writes: "She said Minneapolis had suffered a “federal occupation” and that students patrolled neighborhoods at night."

I think it's a bit late. We all see Trumpism now.

The ‘home of the free and the land of the brave' has 'secret police' running around the streets in masks detaining, assaulting and killing people.

You can't drawdown from that.; 5/18/26, 8:07 AM
Eva Marie said...: “Meanwhile, Republicans had plenty of leaders who were brutally critical of Trump and later bent the knee. Lindsey Graham called Trump a “race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot” and just yesterday said the GOP is “the party of Donald Trump.” Cruz, Rubio, Vance, etc. once rejected Trump.”
You undermined your own point. These people were critical of Trump and they weren’t drummed out of the party. In the end they supported Trump in a show of party unity.
And your portrayal of Cruz especially is an illustration of the kind of language Democrats use to stifle criticism in their own ranks - thereby driving moderates out.; 5/18/26, 8:15 AM
narciso said...: Too little learing; 5/18/26, 8:22 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: RFK Jr. isn’t really evidence of moderates fleeing Democrats because they went too far left. His path was anti-establishment and outsider politics long before endorsing Trump.

Okay smart boy, now tell us why he was in the Big Tent of Democrats for so long, and in fact has not changed to Republican, but now is part of our Big Tent and not your side? You telling me there's room for Mandami and Piker and Bass but not for a skeptic?; 5/18/26, 8:37 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Just as drones have replaced artillery there has been a complete bifurcation in the defense industry. If you make tanks or artillery or aircraft carriers you are toast. I found a quote in a 16th Century book that goes "Knights are done for; they have rather wasted their time; crossbowmen and miners, sappers and engineers, from now on they will be worth far more".

The issue is where Stealth jets fit into this. Some say that they can be located with a distributed system of loitering drones with IR sensors. I don't know but B2s are horrendously expensive.

Then there's the issue of Patriots & Thaads. Manufaturers claim 95% interception rates but Professor Ted Postol at MIT claims less than 5% from video analysis from the current conflict. At the recent RUSI air defense conference in April, when asked about interception rates -- the American missile companies weren't happy. If they really are 95% why send up 5 interceptors to one incoming Iranian missile? And Thaads are made by hand (8 per month, why automate production when you're paid cost plus).

I think there is an argument that half the current defense companies are going to go bust, the other half are going to increase in value by a factor of 5. The question is which ones.

Achilles--having mastered corona-virus epidemiology, mRNA design, the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the Israel/Palestine conflict, and the economics of inflation, large language models, balloon dynamics, submarine design, naval military history, toilet paper supply chain logistics, Austrian economic theory, and elementary Farsi, he might argue drones have not replaced artillery.

Unfortunately artillery without drones is useless & artillery (given its relative immobility) is exceptionally vulnerable to counter strikes. At the RUSI conference a lot of the talk was about deconfliction. Basically if your drones are up you can't use countermeasures. Yes fibre optic drones can't be easily stopped (rotating barbed wire is a thing now) but they aren't much use for long term observation. Absolutely no-one talked about the benefits of artillery: the no-go zone is now 50km, how to resupply artillery then? I think 85% of casualties are from drones, maybe higher now.; 5/18/26, 8:39 AM
RJW said...: Eva, a bit inconsistent there and I’m not sure that your leap follows.

My point wasn’t that they were drummed out. It was that Trump himself largely didn’t change.

For years, even many strong supporters of Trump pushed back on phrases like “party of Trump” because it implied personality over principles, institutions, or conservatism itself.

Graham then called him a “race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot.” Cruz called him a pathological liar. Others made similarly harsh criticisms.

Fast forward to today, an open admission to being the “Party of Trump” and if Trump was to stop short, their heads would go straight up his ass.

So the question becomes: if Trump didn’t really change, what did? The politicians? The party? The incentives? That seems to me like a fair discussion.

Also, pointing out Cruz’s own words isn’t Democrats stifling criticism. Cruz said those things himself during the GOP primary.

And if the argument is “they later united behind the nominee,” that sounds less like Democrats driving moderates out and more like party realignment and coalition behavior—which both parties experience.; 5/18/26, 8:41 AM
RJW said...: Mike @ 8:37, I’m not sure RFK Jr. proves the point.

People make personal, political, and even moral choices independent of party alignment all the time.

Fetterman stayed a Democrat despite disagreements with parts of the left. Massie often breaks with Republicans. Liz Cheney made choices she said were constitutional and paid a political price. MTG represents a very different wing of the GOP.

Parties are coalitions.

Also, was RFK rejected for being “a skeptic,” or because of the specific positions he took? Those aren’t necessarily the same thing.

And if former Trump critics staying in the GOP is evidence of a “big tent,” I’m not sure RFK leaving automatically proves Democrats drove moderates out.; 5/18/26, 8:52 AM
Original Mike said...: "‘home of the free and the land of the brave'"

Is it any surprise Rich can't get the national anthem right?; 5/18/26, 9:10 AM
Rustygrommet said...: Well, Eva. I think you struck a chord with unenlightened.; 5/18/26, 9:24 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: @OG Mike: Out of all the problems we have, you're worried about the order of 'free' and 'brave'? Peak internet.

It's a one-word flip, not 'can't get it right.' Touch grass.; 5/18/26, 9:58 AM
Jamie said...: RJW, how about Gabbard? Or Dersh? Or Evan Barker, or even Matt Taibbi, who can't stand Trump but can't stand Democrats even more? Or the myriad unknown people on X who say "this is why I can't vote Democrat anymore"?

You appear to be trying to say that both Democrats and Republicans "unite around a candidate for the sake of party unity," but the question is, which candidate?

On the Republican side, it seems to me that you're right that Trump hasn't changed, but you're mistaken about how he hasn't changed. You seem to think that Democrats have held their ground while Republicans have moved far to the right, but the reverse is obviously true: Democrat candidates (at least at the federal level, in blue states, or in medium or larger cities) can't be pro-life, can't be anti-transing children, can't be pro-merit and achievement/anti-DEI, can't be theologically sound Christian, can't be anti-UBI even. Increasingly they have to be DSA or DSA-curious. Republicans can attract former Democrats to their ranks because Trump is a Clintonian Democrat and always has been. Your team won - the Republican party now encompasses all the moderates, just as Eva said.

Your team won the ideological argument, that is, shifting the Overton window quite far leftward, but they also have been cranking it shut on their own side, while the Republican party, which is apparently still dominated by pragmatists, shrugs and opens its arms to Democrat apostates. Will we still lose in the midterms? Probably, because that's how midterms go, and James Carville's one great insight is still true and we don't know what the economic situation will be in, say, October. But to claim that we'll lose because Democrats have captured the middle with their great and popular ideas and their celebrated tolerance is ridiculous.; 5/18/26, 10:04 AM
Original Mike said...: "Out of all the problems we have, you're worried about the order of 'free' and 'brave'?"

You're full of shit on the important stuff too.; 5/18/26, 10:14 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: I believe in the inalienable right of intellectual down-punching.

Both Neptune and Pluto were predicted long before they had ever been seen because of peculiarities in the orbits of the other outer planets. It made me think that planets weren’t so very different from people. Seeing what happened around them was enough to tell you where they were and what they were.; 5/18/26, 10:34 AM
RJW said...: Jamie, I think you’re focusing heavily on messaging and cultural framing while skipping policy outcomes.

I’ll absolutely give Republicans credit on messaging. They have been very effective politically on issues like abortion, trans issues, identity politics, etc. They’ve often framed debates emotionally and electorally very well.

But policy popularity is another question.

A lot of Americans don’t support women being denied emergency miscarriage care. Many don’t support billionaires paying lower effective tax rates than working people. Many support environmental protections, labor protections, some gun restrictions, and preserving social programs.

Democrats aren’t saying women should hemorrhage during miscarriages. They aren’t trying to punish children born with ambiguous sex characteristics. They aren’t arguing for dangerous people having guns or for environmental regulations disappearing.

My point is that some issues get reduced into slogans and fear messaging while the underlying policy details get lost.

Also, if Republicans are now the party of moderates, does that mean Massie, MTG, Cheney, Trump, RFK Jr., Gabbard, and establishment conservatives are all “moderates”? That sounds more like a very broad coalition than an ideological center.; 5/18/26, 10:36 AM
Original Mike said...: The calculation predicting a ninth planet based on the orbits of Uranus and Neptune were erroneous. Tombaugh's discovery of Pluto was serendipity.; 5/18/26, 10:42 AM
Eva Marie said...: @RJW
This is what you write about Cruz:
“Cruz, Rubio, Vance, etc. once rejected Trump for who he really is and now reside so far up his ass they can taste the Big Mac.”
That’s the kind of language Democrats deploy against dissenting Democrats. It’s colorful but counterproductive. Moderates don’t argue when that sort of language is used. First they shut up, then they leave the party.; 5/18/26, 11:12 AM
Eva Marie said...: Trump, RFK Jr., Gabbard are not moderates but they are all welcome in the Republican Party.; 5/18/26, 11:15 AM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: RFK is proof of Democrats shunning anyone who publicly agrees with ANY Trump policy. Doesn’t matter it was his lifelong work and just happened to coincide with Trump wanting to reform public health administration.; 5/18/26, 1:13 PM
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...: Eva Marie is way out of your league dude. And she’s substantive.; 5/18/26, 1:16 PM
RJW said...: Oh no no Eva @ 11:12. You’re trying to make some comparison of describing loyalty to Trump to how Democrats treat dissenting members.

Regardless of the language tone or how vulgar or offensive you take it, GOP leaders must appease the Basket, or better put, the cult. Or perhaps, they themselves have swallowed the potion. We can discuss Democrats eating their own but the Trump bashing and then ass kissing phenomenon is a totally different ballgame.; 5/18/26, 1:22 PM