"People worldwide were betting on the fall of Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on prediction markets long before he was killed..."

"... in an airstrike on his compound in Tehran late last month. But when his demise was confirmed on March 1, the platform Kalshi said it would not pay out millions of dollars in expected winnings, citing a prohibition on wagers involving death. The company outraged bettors and fueled a fierce cultural debate about the ethics and dangers of prediction markets. Such bets have also highlighted national security risks. Several times, betting patterns have suggested that anonymous users were using inside information to gamble on geopolitical developments, like the timing of attacks. There is often little governments can do about it. Prediction markets allow trades on 'event contracts,' bets on whether almost anything will occur — an Oscar win, a natural disaster, or the president garbling his words...."

From "Betting on Ayatollah’s Ouster Ignites Ire Over Prediction Markets/Bettors are angry that Kalshi, citing a policy against death bets, did not pay on wagers. And with signs of trading on government secrets, some lawmakers want to restrict prediction markets" (NYT).