Althouse: Canada smoke sunrise.

3 ఆగస్టు, 2025

Canada smoke sunrise.

Write about what you like in the comments.

79 కామెంట్‌లు:

Keldonric చెప్పారు...: With all the headlines about the June jobs revision, I decided to dig into the data a bit. The monthly jobs report (CES) is based on a survey with only about 43% response, and it estimates changes out of a workforce of roughly 159 million. That helps explain why even a big revision—like June 2025’s drop from +147K to +14K—isn’t necessarily outside the norm. The 90% confidence interval for the initial number was ±136K, so the true figure could’ve been anywhere from +11K to +283K. The revision of 133K sounds large, but it’s just 0.08% of the total workforce. With the QCEW due Sept 9, based on actual payroll records, we’ll soon have a much firmer read on what really happened.; 03-08-25 9:11 PM
Big Mike చెప్పారు...: I’m prepared to support Trump if he informs Carney that either they put out the fires or we declare war and invade.; 03-08-25 9:12 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: First of all, nobody gets to give themselves a nickname. Somebody else who knows the subject, gets to do that.

I don't know how 'Charlamagne Tha God' got that nickname, and I don't care to know, I'm only mention it as it relates to a Trump whataboutism (a weak form of argument).

Having listened to the song Peter Pumpkin Head earlier in the day. Trump musings about the name 'Charlamagne Tha God' reminded me of another post where a Trump detractor had called him 'Mango Mussolini'.

'Trump Tha Pumpkinhead' is the best nickname for president Trump and I'll quote some of song's lyrics showing why I think that to be the case.

Peter Pumpkinhead pulled them all
Emptied churches and shopping malls
Where he spoke, it would raise the roof
Peter Pumpkinhead told the truth

But he made too many enemies
Of the people who would keep us on our knees...

Peter Pumpkinhead put to shame
Governments who would slur his name
Plots and sex scandals failed outright
Peter merely said, "Any kind of love is all alright"

But he made too many enemies
Of the people who would keep us on our knees...

Peter Pumpkinhead was too good
Had him nailed to a chunk of wood
He died grinning on live TV
Hanging there, he looked a lot like you
And an awful lot like me

But he made too many enemies
Of the people who would keep us on our knees...

Trump that Pumpkinhead, you heard it here first.; 03-08-25 9:13 PM
Big Mike చెప్పారు...: RIP Loni Anderson. WKRP will live forever in our hearts.; 03-08-25 9:16 PM
Ampersand చెప్పారు...: There's a relatively new cultural phenomenon. It's the fictional lovable curmudgeon. Think Hugh Lawrie in House, or Doc Martin, or the protaganist in Dept Q. Somehow Trump has plugged into this.; 03-08-25 9:19 PM
Keldonric చెప్పారు...: For anyone curious, the full methodology behind the monthly jobs numbers is publicly available on the BLS website, including how the data is collected, estimated, adjusted, and revised. You can also access the variance data used to calculate confidence intervals. The only thing not released is individual business-level data, which is confidential by law. Full details here:
https://www.bls.gov/ces/methods-overview.htm; 03-08-25 9:22 PM
RCOCEAN II చెప్పారు...: Just went and re-watched GWTW. An absolute masterpiece. Even though its a "chick movie" its still so good, even men can enjoy it.

Gable, Vivien Leigh, Olivia de Havilland, Thomas Mitchell, etc. Probably the only clunker in the bunch is leslie howard. But that's only because its hard to believe Scarlett could fall in love with such a wimp. I think Randolph Scott would've been more believable. But since the whole point is that "Ashley" is a loser, maybe Howard was the right choice.; 03-08-25 9:28 PM
RCOCEAN II చెప్పారు...: sad to hear about Loni Anderson. WKRP was a very uneven show. But she was a standout.; 03-08-25 9:29 PM
Original Mike చెప్పారు...: F**k Canada Smoke.; 03-08-25 9:30 PM
Original Mike చెప్పారు...: I liked Bailey.; 03-08-25 9:31 PM
FormerLawClerk చెప్పారు...: "WKRP will live forever in our hearts."

Bailey's Jordache-jeaned butt is still living in my heart. She was by far the hottest woman in Cincinnati at that time.

Jennifer was window dressing. Bailey you could take home to momma.; 03-08-25 9:32 PM
Original Mike చెప్పారు...: "The 90% confidence interval for the initial number was ±136K, so the true figure could’ve been anywhere from +11K to +283K."

LOL. Yeesh.; 03-08-25 9:33 PM
Big Mike చెప్పారు...: Bailey you could take home to momma.

@FormerLawClerk, I have to agree. Apparently Jan Smithers is still with us, age 76.; 03-08-25 9:42 PM
Keldonric చెప్పారు...: LOL. Yeesh.

Yeah, it does sound wild — but that’s how it works with surveys like this. When only about 43% of businesses respond, there’s a lot of uncertainty in the estimate. That’s why the range is so wide, and why the more complete QCEW data matters so much.; 03-08-25 9:43 PM
Dave Begley చెప్పారు...: The American Lung Association should sue Canada.; 03-08-25 9:43 PM
Jersey Fled చెప్పారు...: “ With all the headlines about the June jobs revision, I decided to dig into the data a bit.”

The issue isn’t any particular revision, but a series of large revisions over almost a year and all in the same direction. You seem to be good at statistics. What is the probability of that happening. I’m guessing it’s pretty close to zero.; 03-08-25 9:48 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: In Shadow and Evil in Fairy Tales, Marie-Louise von Franz says, "I have looked at collective fairy tale material for many years, wondering whether it would be possible to find a few general rules of human behavior which would always be valid. I have to confess that I have not found a standard basic rule, or rather, I have found it and I have not found it, for there is always a contradiction!

"I can tell you stories which say that if you meet evil you must fight it, but there are just as many which say that you must run away and not try to fight it. Some say to suffer without hitting back; others say don't be a fool, hit back! There are stories which say that if you are confronted with evil, the only thing to do is lie your way out of it; others say no, be honest, even towards the Devil, and don't become involved with lying...I disappointedly came to the conclusion that really it should be like that, because it is collective material! How, otherwise, could there be individual action? For if collective material is completely contradictory, if our basic ethical disposition is completely contradictory, only then is it possible for us to have an individual, responsible, free conscious superstructure over those basic opposites...There would be no individuality if the basic material were not contradictory." YouTube link

I think this is very helpful to know, to have in the back of our minds, as it were, when attempting to understand where to stand on difficult issues of the day, when nothing is "too on the nose". knowwhatimean.; 03-08-25 9:52 PM
Original Mike చెప్పారు...: The Biden job numbers were always complimentary to him, and then were ratcheted down. Every single month.

Was the person who was let go involved in that data?; 03-08-25 9:55 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: Email from Amazon: "On July 24, Apple released iOS 26 Beta. The Amazon Flex app does not support Beta releases, and if you choose to upgrade, you may have difficulties using the app."

Are you an iPhone iOS beta tester? If so, I would like to know what's it about. If you care to share.; 03-08-25 10:01 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: Maybe a new release will help me read my iPhone at an arm's length. A literal arm's length. 😏; 03-08-25 10:05 PM
Iman చెప్పారు...: “Was the person who was let go involved in that data?

Yes, she was, Original Mike.; 03-08-25 10:07 PM
Keldonric చెప్పారు...: The issue isn’t any particular revision, but a series of large revisions over almost a year and all in the same direction. You seem to be good at statistics. What is the probability of that happening. I’m guessing it’s pretty close to zero.

Fair point — it’s not just one revision, it’s the string of them. And no, it’s not random like coin flips. With only 43% response and a shifting sample each month, the early estimates lean heavily on modeling. That’s why the 90% confidence interval was ±136K in June — and the 133K revision, while big, was just 0.08% of total employment.

I’ve actually been digging into past revisions myself, trying to compare them to the total workforce numbers to see if there’s a pattern. I’m just one curious person, of course — I’m sure economists are doing all of this and much more with better tools and full datasets. But it’s been interesting to explore what’s behind the headlines.; 03-08-25 10:08 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: I have a question. Who should play Liam Neeson in a Taken (2008) remake, where Pamela Anderson plays the kidnaper, and Liam Neeson is cowering under a bed.; 03-08-25 10:23 PM
tcrosse చెప్పారు...: My wife used to joke about a cosmetic product named Loni Anderson Cleavage Shadow.; 03-08-25 10:28 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: Now that Trump has expressed negatively on a possible Didi pardon, I'm putting Didi just one notch above Will Smith on the black star hierarchy. Will Smith is mired in quicksand. All his attempts at showing people he still alive make him look worse.
The damage Will Smith cause his own career may very well be irreparable. I can't think of anybody else who's done it worse.; 03-08-25 10:35 PM
Original Mike చెప్పారు...: Thanks, Iman.
Puts a whole different light on things.; 03-08-25 10:35 PM
Josephbleau చెప్పారు...: “ The issue isn’t any particular revision, but a series of large revisions over almost a year ”

Thanks for the data. The error, or the residual, the difference between the initial estimate and the corrected value, should be random and uncorrelated, no matter how low the sampling N is, and should likely be normally distributed. If all corrections before the election were one way and all errors after the election were the opposite that would be a bad sign. I’ll try to look at it too.; 03-08-25 10:38 PM
Keith చెప్పారు...: Big Mike - As G-d is my witness - I thought turkeys could fly.; 03-08-25 10:42 PM
Keldonric చెప్పారు...: It is worth knowing that no core methodology has changed this year. The way jobs are estimated — including how the data is collected, adjusted, and benchmarked — remains the same.

What did happen in February 2025 was a routine review the BLS does every year to check whether each industry category has enough businesses reporting to publish reliable data. Some small industries were merged into broader categories because they didn’t meet those minimum standards — which protects both statistical quality and business confidentiality.

For example, the BLS stopped publishing a separate number for “Fluid power valve and hose fitting manufacturing” and folded it into the broader “Metal valve manufacturing” group. That change didn’t affect the overall job count — just how finely the data is broken out.

They post all of this publicly. You can see the full list of series changes here:
👉 https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm; 03-08-25 10:43 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: YouTube: Braves and Cincinnati play a baseball game at a car racetrack.

Take the game to where the fans might be. I hope the idea catches on.; 03-08-25 10:50 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit చెప్పారు...: Wait a minute. Loni Anderson and Pamela Anderson.

Speaking of "too on the nose".; 03-08-25 10:53 PM
Keldonric చెప్పారు...: @Josephbleau

Thanks for the thoughtful response — looking forward to seeing if anything interesting pops up in your dive.; 03-08-25 10:53 PM
Josephbleau చెప్పారు...: Here is a list of the subject employment poll.

• June 2024: +179,000 (initially +206,000, revised down by 27,000)
• July 2024: +97,000 (initially +114,000, revised down by 17,000)
• August 2024: +144,000 (initially +142,000, revised up by 2,000)
• September 2024: +223,000 (initially +254,000, revised down by 31,000)
• October 2024: +12,000 (no major revisions reported)
• November 2024: +227,000 (no major revisions reported)
• December 2024: +256,000 (no major revisions reported)
• January 2025: +150,000 (no major revisions reported)
• February 2025: +275,000 (no major revisions reported)
• March 2025: +228,000 (no major revisions reported)
• April 2025: +177,000 (no major revisions reported)
• May 2025: +19,000 (initially +144,000, revised down by 125,000)
• June 2025: +14,000 (initially +147,000, revised down by 133,000)
• July 2025: +73,000 (preliminary, subject to future revisions)

One thing is that there is no true employment number ever measured so the data does not really show error, just error based on later polls. So that is unfortunate.

It looks like they are doing pretty ok except for a big overestimate in jobs in June 24 and Sept 24, and two months of huge mistakes (well over 100,000) overestimating jobs in May 25 and June 25.

And as was mentioned, this is a very high error poll and seems unreliable to me, no one should be to concerned with a big change in employment reported by this survey because it is not that accurate. I would look at the trend over several months. That is my Quick Look.; 03-08-25 11:38 PM
Josephbleau చెప్పారు...: One thing I would say is that over the last 13 months there was only one correction up, and 5 corrections down, so it seems that the team should have looked for bias in their poll.; 03-08-25 11:51 PM
Eva Marie చెప్పారు...: Romantic movies. Love stories. I watched Marty this evening. Such a sweet movie - a romance with Earnest Borgnine. A few nights ago I watched Come Back Little Sheba - this time Shirley Booth as the romantic lead. A really fantastic movie I watched last night was Make Way For Tomorrow. Great movie and a beautiful love story. But I don’t recommend it. Too sad. (No violence in any of these.); 03-08-25 11:55 PM
gadfly చెప్పారు...: Two days ago we read here about Matt Tiabbi and his support for the Hillary Clinton conspiracy conspiracy theory about Russia, Russia, Russia, as laid out by Tulsi and Durham.

In 2000, Taibbi and Mark Ames published "The Exile: Sex, Drugs, and Libel in the New Russia", a memoir of their first year of editing The Exile, an alt-weekly in Moscow that took on the corrupt culture of post-Communist Russia, mercilessly attacked the expats who moved there to get rich quick, and gleefully exposed the shoddy reporting in the mainstream media.

Ames and Taibbi actually write about how they mercilessly sexual harassed and occasionally assaulted the women they encountered, both their colleagues in the Exile office and Russian women—some as young as 15—they met socially.

Most notably, the Exile nurtures a peculiarly vicious and schizoid attitude toward women. While Russian women are rhapsodically celebrated as long-legged gazelles with loose morals—”the most physically attractive women on earth, and . . . usually available to the highest bidder,” expat women are ridiculed at length as “fat-ankled” and defensively sexless. Self-hating geeky American men are encouraged to take advantage of the perception that all Americans are rich and have oodles of condomless sex (sometimes in the ass!) with drunk, nubile dyevushkas. Ex-girlfriends are held up to public ridicule—Ames at one point chronicles his threats to kill a pregnant ex if she won’t have an abortion.

So back in the day when Trump and Epstein, were doing it with teenagers, with a little help from Ghislaine and the Miss Teenage America pageant, so was Matt Tiabbi. Yes, indeed, MattyDickPic actually wrote about how he spent his time in Russia, Russia, Russia.; 04-08-25 12:00 AM
Tina Trent చెప్పారు...: Ampersand: also Sipowitz, inspector Morse, long tradition in British procedural and romances. Up to Sipowitz, it was driven by crooked bosses. During and after Sipowitz, it was driven by forcing identity politics on anyone with an aspirational job. For example, nobody wanted Archie Bunker's job, so he was in no fear of losing it.

He just feared being killed doing it. Trump understands the need for fairness and social order.; 04-08-25 12:25 AM
Eva Marie చెప్పారు...: We went to see GWTW as kids when it was rereleased. We were so relieved when it was over - only to find out that was intermission. 15 more hours to go - or so it seemed. Never saw it again.; 04-08-25 12:42 AM
buwaya చెప్పారు...: Well done Keldronic and josephbleau; 04-08-25 1:14 AM
Duty of Inquiry చెప్పారు...: With respect to the jobs report, if the can't report an accurate number they shouldn't report any.

Of course they can't not report so instead of giving a specific number maybe they should report a range so as to highlight just how unreliable their bullshit actually is.

Or, figure out how to get good numbers.
I'm not holding my breath.; 04-08-25 3:40 AM
Eric the Fruit Bat చెప్పారు...: Thank you, Keldronic and Josephbleau.; 04-08-25 4:53 AM
Eric the Fruit Bat చెప్పారు...: Marty is a one of my favorites.; 04-08-25 4:54 AM
Breezy చెప్పారు...: Why use a survey vs the actual payroll system? I’m no expert, but businesses put some of their employees pay into soc sec and fica, plus they pay into unemployment coffers, no?. I can see this may have flaws, but worse than incomplete survey flaws? This inefficiency should be a DOGE revamp task, imho.; 04-08-25 5:28 AM
Humperdink చెప్పారు...: I agree. If you can’t report accurate numbers, wait until you can. This is stooopid.

If this happened in private industry, someone would get fired or go to the pokey.; 04-08-25 5:57 AM
Kakistocracy చెప్పారు...: Revisions always increase as the trend begins to turn. Normally the best indicator of next months forecast is the previous months result. But when employment momentum changes earlier estimates tend to be inaccurate, and so are revised.

So Trump shoots the messenger. But going forward, the trend change won't disappear. Shooting the messenger does not improve the message, but it has been practiced frequently by despots.

It doesn’t improve reality, of course. But unfortunately for a fairly large percentage of the population, message = reality. Which is why despots bother firing the messenger.; 04-08-25 5:59 AM
Christopher B చెప్పారు...: Breezy, I'm going a bit from memory but I think even though the employment number always makes the headline there are a number of other questions that couldn't be answered by payroll data in the survey such as open positions to be filled and expected changes. As keldonic mentioned in the initial comment there is an actual payroll figure but that is announced quarterly rather than monthly. I also believe that ADP and other payroll processors regularly announce figures based on their operational data but that isn't as comprehensive a look as the BLS tries to obtain.; 04-08-25 6:20 AM
Bruce Hayden చెప్పారు...: Just posted this on Discord.

'No One Is Above The Law': Jack Smith Under Investigation Over Hatch Act Violations | ZeroHedge https://www.zerohedge.com/political/no-one-above-law-jack-smith-under-investigation-over-hatch-act-violations

From a lawyer’s point of view, this is very interesting. Going all the way back to the Midyear Exam (Clinton email) and Crossfire Hurricane (RussiaGate) investigations, elements of the DOJ and FBI have used their national security tools to politically attack Trump. That’s an in-kind political contributions by federal employees, and, thus, presumably a Hatch Act violation. I fully expect that his deputy (and DOJ Counterintelligence and Export Control chief) Jay Bratt to be swept in, as well as some of his people, as well as some of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division people involved in both RussiaGate and their FL Documents case against Trump, to be swept in. And ultimately back to Clapper and Brennan, through Comey and McCabe, and then through his assistant Lisa Page to her lover, Peter Strzok and others in the FBI’s CD. That would be the basis for a Conspiracy case, that tolled the Statute of Limitations. Then layer on top of this Obstruction of Justice, and Justice may be possible.

The Hatch Act line of attack is interesting, because, if successful, could permanently harm the Deep State’s ability to politically attack political opponents using their government power - because that is exactly what happened.

We shall see.; 04-08-25 6:47 AM
boatbuilder చెప్పారు...: Revisions always increase as the trend begins to turn. Normally the best indicator of next months forecast is the previous months result. But when employment momentum changes earlier estimates tend to be inaccurate, and so are revised.
It was right, until it was wrong. Don't blame the people who got it wrong!
It's a good thing the people throwing darts here don't have any impact on economic policy. What's that you say?

Bob says:

"I've been shooting in the dark too long/
When something's not right it's wrong."; 04-08-25 6:50 AM
Duty of Inquiry చెప్పారు...: Shooting an honest, reliable messenger is counterproductive and a mistake.

Shooting an unreliable and possibly dishonest messenger is a tactic meant to encourage the next messenger to try harder.; 04-08-25 6:53 AM
rhhardin చెప్పారు...: "We temporarily lost signal from your delivery driver, but your order is still on the way.""

I assume this means it's not coming. Delivery 4am-8am; 04-08-25 7:07 AM
Ralph L చెప్పారు...: Original Mike said...
Thanks, Iman.
Puts a whole different light on things.
That's what cleavage shadow does.; 04-08-25 7:16 AM
Leland చెప్పారు...: It is sad what Canada is doing to our environment.; 04-08-25 7:23 AM
Temujin చెప్పారు...: Cannibis is out of control up north.; 04-08-25 7:39 AM
Aggie చెప్పారు...: Why doesn't Trump place a tariff on Canadian smoke?; 04-08-25 7:55 AM
Curious George చెప్పారు...: I spent the day with my son at Road America watching the IMSA series. The smoke was gross and by the end of the day had a scratchy throat.

As a humorous aside heading home on 45 south, which is four lane divided highway, I saw a two-sided billboard way over on the east side of the highway. I was a photo of a cat, captioned "They have nine lives, you only have one. Don't drive distracted."; 04-08-25 7:57 AM
Rocco చెప్పారు...: Smoke on the water
And [a big ball of] fire in the sky.; 04-08-25 8:00 AM
Jersey Fled చెప్పారు...: “ Cannibis is out of control up north.”

It always was.; 04-08-25 8:01 AM
Jamie చెప్పారు...: Chamath Palihapatiya (don't hold me to the spelling; I'm pretty excited that I no longer have to hesitate over his last name in speaking), one of the All-In Podcast guys and a venture capitalist/tech bro/Trump convert reached the same conclusion about BLS numbers - they're unreliable but they don't show a clear pattern of unreliability. And he also suggested using payroll numbers instead because they'd be much more reliable. And of course, being a tech guy, he opined that there should be a better data collection tool that wouldn't unduly burden businesses (because payroll is quarterly but we all want monthly jobs numbers).

Some commenter on X then claimed, if memory serves, that Trump fired the "board" that had been tasked with doing just that - which Chamath then pointed out is not how boards work.

I would add to that: the Biden administration finally began trying to get a handle on border security only as of, what, August or so last year? when the polls showed them utterly unequivocally that they were losing on the issue, anyway. And, when Trump took office, his actions immediately and very effectively slammed the border shut, versus the prior administration's more or less hand-waving efforts that had resulted in some reductions in crossings but by no means actual border security. What a coincidence that the Biden administration would also decide that BLS data quality, like border security, was a priority just before the election (or just before leaving office). IOW, was "development of a data collection tool to improve BLS job statistics" the core task of this "board"? Or is that just an interpretation of what that body (whatever it was or is) was supposed to be doing that can be described in terms unfavorable to Trump?; 04-08-25 8:03 AM
Jersey Fled చెప్పారు...: Is there a sadder country in all this world than Canada? I mean, they’re not like Bangladesh where structural issues keep them perpetually in a state of poverty. They have so much going for them and yet they are circling the drain, at least socially. And probably economically next.

Oh yea. The U.K. They’re already 2/3 down the drain.; 04-08-25 8:07 AM
Rusty చెప్పారు...: On my vacation in Orange County California. Some things stand out. We usually go to the Sams Club in Westminster and the Costco in Tustin ranch. Usually on the weekend Sma Club is mobbed and it is mostly hispanic. This time it was about 50/50. In Costco on the other hand on the weekend it's heavily asian. This time it was closer to 50/50. ICE is having some impact.; 04-08-25 8:32 AM
Iman చెప్పారు...: Those Tokers in Their Toques
We feel we must rebuke
In the Days that we call Olden
They swilled their Molson Golden
But now their teeth are achin’
From eatin’ their Back Bacon; 04-08-25 8:58 AM
wildswan చెప్పారు...: "Joseph Bleau
If all corrections before the election were one way and all errors after the election were the opposite that would be a bad sign." [for the agency person]

This is what I wonder about, so if you get any results I hope you post them. I believe that Trump is saying that the data interpretation by the agency person has been dishonest, meaning it was one way for Biden and another way for Trump. He has been right about this sort of thing. Honestly, the description of the squalor at the various government agencies as resembling a hoarders basement is so true. And now the clean-up of the hoarder basement is making the frontyard of the hoarder house and the whole block look terrible. Well, it's just something we have to get past - like recovery from an operation or an addiction. Not pretty but very hopeful.; 04-08-25 9:01 AM
Iman చెప్పారు...: Have no fear, Rusty. Head north on the 55, take the 91 east and you’ll find the Empire of the Inland…

https://youtu.be/xrZJEULnt6U; 04-08-25 9:02 AM
Iman చెప్పారు...: Country Dick and the Boys… now THAT was a rockin’ band!; 04-08-25 9:05 AM
Josephbleau చెప్పారు...: “ Revisions always increase as the trend begins to turn. Normally the best indicator of next months forecast is the previous months result. But when employment momentum changes earlier estimates tend to be inaccurate, and so are revised.”

Really? So if you are making predictions of a time series you just use last month’s data as your next month’s prediction? If that is what you are doing with no other information then why bother! But their survey is supposed to be providing information to the prediction, so they claim to be able to detect changes in momentum.; 04-08-25 9:11 AM
Narr చెప్పారు...: I'm with Eva Marie at 1242AM--GWTW is epically overblown.

The womenfolk in my family insisted on seeing it every time it was re-released, and baited us boys with the promise of a movie about The Woah. All I saw was a bunch of dancing and romancing by a lot of frivolous people, and I don't think
my father or uncles ever went willingly. (I do recall the old men in the restrooms who would coo to each other about what a wonderful movie it was, and realized eventually that they were just old homos.)

A history prof friend of mine used to make the argument that the book was pretty good, and was a subtle critique of the CSA, rather than the celebration that it is taken as: the heroine is really a bitch, and her love interest a cynical cad, while the other elites are weak and ineffectual.

But I haven't read the book and have only memories of the movie, unwatched since I was about 12 or 13.; 04-08-25 9:16 AM
Keldonric చెప్పారు...: What’s often overlooked is that CES breaks down employment changes very finely by industry—far beyond just broad sectors. That’s where the real value lies. You can see monthly shifts in niche categories like “architectural and structural metals manufacturing” or “home health care services.” Even when the topline number gets revised, those detailed industry-level changes are what help analysts and policymakers understand what’s actually happening on the ground.

The topline figure grabs headlines, but it’s inherently noisy—based on ~43% initial response and subject to revision. That June revision from +147K to +14K? It sounds big, but it was a 0.08% change in a 159 million–person workforce and still within the 90% confidence interval.

If you want to know where things are changing—not just how much—CES is still one of the best near-term tools we have.; 04-08-25 9:20 AM
Keldonric చెప్పారు...: “Really? So if you are making predictions of a time series you just use last month’s data as your next month’s prediction? If that is what you are doing with no other information then why bother! But their survey is supposed to be providing information to the prediction, so they claim to be able to detect changes in momentum.”

Right — using last month’s number as a default forecast doesn’t add much value on its own. The CES is supposed to detect turning points, but with only ~43% of businesses responding initially, it leans heavily on modeling and imputation — especially in smaller industries, where some worksites might respond once and then be modeled indefinitely.

That said, CES still tracks overall trends well, especially after revisions and annual benchmarking to the QCEW. The initial estimates are more like early signals than precise headcounts.

If we wanted to improve accuracy, there are options — like making the survey mandatory nationwide (not just in states like California), increasing the sample size, or integrating real-time administrative payroll data. But each of those comes with trade-offs in cost, privacy, or complexity. For now, CES is still the best high-frequency tool we’ve got — we just have to interpret it with a bit of caution, especially at turning points.; 04-08-25 9:46 AM
William50 చెప్పారు...: Write about what you like in the comments.

Popsicles and Icicles; 04-08-25 10:01 AM
Lazarus చెప్పారు...: Scarlett O'Hara was the original "girl boss," "the strong female protagonist," with all the ambiguity that involves.; 04-08-25 10:24 AM
Leland చెప్పారు...: Soon to be former Texas Democrat State Legislators apparently fled Texas for Illinois to break quorum for a lawfully called special session of the Texas legislature. The special session was called to re-district Texas’s US Congressional seats. I’ll just note that nothing proposed in Texas is as extreme as Illinois giving only 17% representation for Republicans in Congress for 42% of Republicans voters in the last Presidential election. The governor of Illinois says he’ll retaliate if Texas lowers its Democrat representation to something higher than Illinois gives to Republicans. Does that mean he will push raising the Republican representation or remove the remaining 3 Republican seats in Illinois to be more like Massachusetts?; 04-08-25 11:11 AM
effinayright చెప్పారు...: Rumor has it , the American Lung Association set those Canadian fires so it could trot out that simpering little girl to shill for donations.

"Wanna breathe easier?....it'll cost you. Cough it up."; 04-08-25 11:34 AM
Rusty చెప్పారు...: Inman.
I'm sure it is. But I'm judging as someone who only shows up for a couple of weeks two or three times a year. The vibe is different. We went to the flea market at Golden West and it wasn't as crowded. Fewer produce venders and more asian tchotchke vendors.; 04-08-25 11:45 AM
john mosby చెప్పారు...: Aggie: “ Why doesn't Trump place a tariff on Canadian smoke?”

Or interpret it as chemical warfare, and use his constitutional power of immediate self-defense to invade and annex the fuckers once for all?

The Western half would gleefully stack arms and direct traffic for the invasion. So Trump could keep the main effort in the east. He could probably get Macron to join in on Quebec by showing him pics of hot old ladies in lumberjack shirts.

RR
JSM; 04-08-25 11:58 AM
Ralph L చెప్పారు...: Rusty, you take shopping vacations?; 04-08-25 12:02 PM
Rusty చెప్పారు...: Ralph L said...
"Rusty, you take shopping vacations?"
LOL. No. My daughters have the cars so I'm at their mercy.
I go to flea markets looking for thing like micrometers and other precision stuff.; 04-08-25 1:57 PM
Jim at చెప్పారు...: I've learned more about the jobs numbers in this thread than I would've spending a week reading the usual suspects in the media.

Thanks to all who contributed.; 04-08-25 3:40 PM
Jersey Fled చెప్పారు...: Canada is doubling down on net zero. Good luck with that.; 04-08-25 4:16 PM
Iman చెప్పారు...: Hey, Rusty… we’ll be heading down to spend a week in our timeshare in Laguna Beach soon and I’ll keep this in mind.; 04-08-25 5:52 PM

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