His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law. His steep global tariffs are taking clearer shape. And his twin campaigns to deregulate government and deport immigrants are well underway. With the major components of his agenda now coming into focus, President Trump has already left an indelible mark on the U.S. economy. The triumphs and turbulence that may soon arise will squarely belong to him.
To give him credit is to set him up for blame.
Not even six months into his second term, Mr. Trump has forged ahead with the grand and potentially disruptive economic experiment that he first previewed during the 2024 campaign. His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong....
So far, the U.S. economy has remained resilient in the face of these seismic changes....
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65 komento:
It's fun to watch the left salivate for our demise. It's like they are all the worst types of Jew hating Palestinians.
"To give him credit is to set him up for blame."
And indemnify NYT's expert opinion. Just the facts would be a refreshing break from their traditional publication.
You mean if anything goes south MAGA will stop blaming Biden and start blaming Trump? LOL
Will the NYT EVER SAY, ‘This great economy was a result of the Trump programs!’? Please stop.
All this disruptive economic changes got me thinking about the fundamental difference in inflation impacts from staples like fuel, energy housing and food versus consumer goods like cars, vacations, clothing electronics, etc. My prediction is that as long as the staples remain low, people will still buy consumer goods at higher prices but lower volume. That's good for the environment, right? Also, very little impact on quality of life, especially for the working poor.
"So far, the U.S. economy has remained resilient in the face of these seismic changes...."
resilient - Returning quickly to normal after damaging events or conditions, resistant to change
The economy is not being resilient. Under Trump it is changing in favor of lower inflation and high employment levels in an atmosphere of upper pressure on wages and benefits. Under Trump the American economy is headed toward a level of working-class prosperity not seen since the 1950s. NYT can't admit the existence of that trend, therefore the deceptive use of resilient. Seismic was also chosen for its connotations of disaster, which is somewhat fitting if the topic is the prospects of socialism in America. It's never been bleaker for the Marxists in this country since the 1950s as well. Pressure is rising against them everywhere, particularly in red states where support for Marxism in academia is collapsing like Pompei's whorehouses under Vesuvius. Taxpayers aren't going to pay the salaries of their enemies anymore.
--- To give him credit is to set him up for blame.
How did you notice? LOL. Those knives sound sharp. Trump still has the distinct possibility of becoming the most hated of Presidents. But it would be the ending of a huge financial cycle that will do him in, collateral damage left by the Fed's mad policies.
I don't know who hacked Howard's blogger account but I want to thank them- I agree with so many Howard comments the last 6 months.
I don't believe even he knows whether it will all work, but he's determined to go big while we're still in a position to control most of the deals. It remains to be seen how all the moving pieces settle into place and work together. But at least it's clear that continuing with the previous strategies would be certain ruin. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. At least his driving force is to Make America Great Again instead of "Give America Away and Make Current Americans Pay for Their Replacements."
If things are running well next Summer he won't get any credit from the NYTimes- they will write article after article crediting Biden and saying it was all dumb luck on Trump's part. However, if things are going badly then, yes, Trump will rightly take the blame.
It has remained resilient through these policy changes because other countries have essentially been stealing from us. For decades. Imagine how much better things would be if it had not been allowed to happen, or had it been stopped earlier.
Encouragement is found in Argentina and Milei. If something that screwed up can be improved by better policy then Trump has it made.
The greatest fear of Democrats is that Trumps policies will work, and the smart ones know they will. Just look at the difference between Obama/Hillary mid east policy compared to Trump.
"His expensive tax cuts "
Expensive to whom?
I just put a goodly chunk of my recent patrimony in the market this morning. A moderate tariff on our friends and a bigger one on China seem sensible, but Congress needs to put its squeal of approval on them, which could be difficult. It's better than a big increase in income or FICA taxes to keep entitlements afloat a little longer. Wish I knew what happens then.
For some reason, upon reading this bit of quoted NYT's material, my brain started silently composing a parody of Mark Antony's speech, along the lines of:
"I come to bury [Trump] in tongue-in-cheek false approval, not to praise him.... I come to set him up for measuring his achievements against an impossible ideal, not as may be compared to the reality of one man, one flawed man, fighting for his country, and "his people," against the combined strength of a minimally-cooperative legislature and a maximally-obstructive cadre of jurists."
:- )
Yeah, I too notice that "expensive tax cuts" dig.
Leftists believe all assets belong to "the government," and that anything we peons get is by reason of the beneficence of government. This sums the whole issue. Who's in charge, us or them.
To put it more simply, here's where the rubber meets the road.
The metric to watch is the national debt. If it is below 40 trillion at the end of Trump's 4 years his agenda will have been a huge success.
Saying tax cuts are expensive is democrat party agitrop. The CBO projections have been wrong as long as I have been alive. The 2017 version of these cuts were supposed to "cost" $1.5T over ten years. So far, income tax revenue is up $1.5T over the CBO baseline. So, believing that these cuts will spike the deficit is silly. We have a $2T deficit because of a massive expansion of Medicaid and Biden's green energy boondoggles. Cut all of those back to 2010 levels and you have a balanced budget.
They expect the economy to crater because they don’t understand how the private economy works. They loathe finance and smoke their own propaganda…
The countless billions that were/are going to the left’s pets are…cut off isn’t correct, so let’s say reduced…those billions are not an insignificant portion of gdp so when they’re threatened people who only know government assume the economy will crater.
His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong....
Yeah, because the nation's finances were in such great shape before this.
And there's that 'many economists' thing again.
All the assets around are expensive by historical measurements. Real estate. Stocks. Precious metals.
They all float on confidence, of one sort or another. It is usually one thing that triggers the beginning of doubts about the perfect world. One boat springs a leak. But then it is a dozen other things that have relied on that confidence to float their own boats.
It is easy to believe that the confidence game can go on and on -- it seems like the air we breathe. It is harder to look at history and hold that belief, that it could go on much longer. Much less, forever.
The Buffett indicator.
https://cmv.imgix.net/model-charts/2025-03-31-BI-Chart4.png?w=841&fm=webp&q=30
As much as I dislike Joe Biden (and his handlers), I would have been happy to see the economy and the country's finances end up in a good place through his chosen policies. The left, however, would rather that the whole country suffer than see Trump's plans be successful.
The left is asshoe.
"The CBO projections have been wrong as long as I have been alive."
The CBO predicts a lower growth rate than Trump and Bessent and don't include an expected 2.8 trillion tariff revenue.
If Trump achieves an average growth rate of near 3% over 4 years and tariffs shake out as they expect we are finally on the road to fiscal sanity. The Fed need to get on board by starting rate cuts immediately. And we do NOT want China's economy to collapse!
I’ve noticed the word “unexpectedly” has already become the standard whenever the media reports on any economic news. You can almost taste their tears.
The 2017 version of these cuts were supposed to "cost" $1.5T over ten years. So far, income tax revenue is up $1.5T over the CBO baseline.
I don't know what the hell you are talking about. After assuring us that the 2017 tax cuts would pay for themselves, the deficit continued to climb and then exploded with Covid spending (which again Trump was mainly responsible for). The deficit dropped by about 1.3 T with the first budget Biden was responsible for (FY 2022).
What a change! When the Dems are in charge the leftmediaswine hold nobody responsible for the consequences of their actions.
What tax cut? Not for me. I see the Democrats didn't vote for the tips and overtime exemptions. All I see is the increase in the SALT cap. Better than nothing but not what was promised. One thing above all else that markets and investors have in common is they need certainty and stability. The tax policies need to be made permanent.
Dems never want to acknowledge the increase in revenue or a need to reduce spending and growth of same.
When the status quo put us 37 Trillion in debt and rising, " a potentially disruptive economic experiment" seems like a no-brainer.
It's reasonable to assume that hoping for something that you would cry about if it happened is a sign of mental illness or at least a low I.Q.
Freder Frederson said...
The 2017 version of these cuts were supposed to "cost" $1.5T over ten years. So far, income tax revenue is up $1.5T over the CBO baseline.
I don't know what the hell you are talking about.
The Laffer Curve strikes again.
Your stupidity is your only argument against these tax cuts at this point.
pacwest said...
"The CBO projections have been wrong as long as I have been alive."
The CBO predicts a lower growth rate than Trump and Bessent and don't include an expected 2.8 trillion tariff revenue.
If Trump achieves an average growth rate of near 3% over 4 years and tariffs shake out as they expect we are finally on the road to fiscal sanity. The Fed need to get on board by starting rate cuts immediately. And we do NOT want China's economy to collapse!
Math is really hard for democrats.
The only arguments they have now are dishonesty and practiced stupidity.
There are always idiots who will argue against math. Math always wins in the end.
@Kai Akker
I started investing when acceptable PE multiples were 3 or 4 and I have been worried about overvalued assets for the past 3 decades. Buffet's chart is just one part of the puzzle though. One small example: ROIs of 3-5 years were a common goal not so long ago. Today it is 2-3 years or less. A chart comparing GDP to equity value over time is worrisome but simplistic imo. The QE policies were destructive in this regard - again imo. Yes, the entire thing reeks of tulip bulbs. But I don't see a collapse of asset prices in the near future. They seem to be tied to the rate of technology advancement and we are on the cusp of a hyperbolic curve. I fall more into the camp of "Who knows what the hell is going on". We're in uncharted waters.
His expensive tax cuts have been signed into law.
LOL starting right off with a whopper of a lie! The tax "cuts" happened in 2017. Sure there's some expansion this year but the big win was preventing democrats from raising taxes when Trump's 2017 cuts expired. Yes Trump deserves it. No the NYT cannot report on it honestly.
The 2017 version of these cuts were supposed to "cost" $1.5T over ten years. So far, income tax revenue is up $1.5T over the CBO baseline.
I don't know what the hell you are talking about.
Because you have a comprehension problem. Revenues go up every time taxes are reduced. In keeping with that reality Treasury Revenues increased between 2018-2020. You glide over that fact and skip right to the bottom line: Both Trump and Biden spent trillions we didn't have on a pandemic that didn't need government spending to weather. Those extraordinary emergency expenditures account for most of the increase. The rest was Biden's stupid IRA and Green dream spending.
Why do facts have no currency with you leftists?
"Math is really hard for democrats."
The only math they understand is "You have money and we intend to take it from you."
Just like none of them ever define "fair share" or how they intend to extract it from billionaires who don't draw a salary. Being a democrat requires magical thinking and a lot prevarication.
Just like none of them ever define "fair share"...
"Fair share" = "All of it". They're smart enough to know they can't say that out loud though.
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
Just like none of them ever define "fair share" or how they intend to extract it from billionaires who don't draw a salary. Being a democrat requires magical thinking and a lot prevarication.
Their entire political agenda is wrapped around taking money from other people.
They produce nothing. Their preferred jobs are HR and government. They live as parasites on the people who build the infrastructure and the wealth of the country.
They cannot be honest about who and what they are. They are completely useless and unnecessary. In a just world they would have to get a real job building something someone else wants.
But they are selfish people who are the grasshoppers of the world.
Everyone I know who works in the real economy is incredibly optimistic right now. Remember, as 2016-19 showed, the economy does extremely well--especially for the working class--just as long as there are no new actively stupid and destructive policies put into place. Trump doesn't have to be a clairvoyant genius; he just has to block stupid anti-commerce, resentment-based policies.
My one worry is the massively overvalued housing values. Not so much the housing MARKET, which has been beaten down for a while, but the huge on-paper gains that I worry households are relying on. That so many people are withdrawing houses from the market when they don't get their price is a sign, but I don't know if it's a good one or a bad one.
It would be ironic if Powell's vindictively keeping interest rates high prevented another housing boom and crash? Mortgage rates are just too high for a whole lot of speculation and flipping.
Continue with and ramp up the deportations and pass a law that severely restricts the number of single-family homes that can be owned by private equity firms and finance slime like Blackrock, and we'll really be getting somewhere on housing costs and hence family formation.
Those extraordinary emergency expenditures account for most of the increase. The rest was Biden's stupid IRA and Green dream spending.
As I pointed out, the deficit continued to increase after the tax cut was passed and before COVID. Of course, Trump never got the GDP increases he promised (4, 5, 6 or 7%). He did squeak out a couple of quarters at 4%, but never more than that.
pass a law that severely restricts the number of single-family homes that can be owned by private equity firms and finance slime like Blackrock
Good idea! Has anyone in the administration or congress suggested that?
Didn't think so.
--- We're in uncharted waters. [pacwest]
Yes. It must be different this time. Or have you heard that one?
I pray we have economic golden times and deficit is under 1 trillion. We need booming economy, rising stock market, low inflation, decent wage growth (especially at the bottom end), low low unemployment, and lower interest rates.
I worry we won't have economic golden times, federal deficit is over 2 trillion annually, and we end up with 2028 Pres Elect Wes Morre and VP Josh Shapiro.
“ His actions in recent weeks have staked the future of the nation’s finances — and its centuries-old trading relationships — on a belief that many economists’ most dire warnings are wrong.... ”
So far, it would seem those “many economists” are the ones who are wrong. Time will tell.
"It's different this time."
:) Why yes. Yes I have.
Gravity sucks.
They always talk about tax cuts as an economic hit: to whom?
Likewise with the signed social security tax cuts: people keeping more of their money is NOT a hit, loss or expense -quite the opposite. Indeed, even so-called bi-partisan organizations see the SS tax cuts as not beneficial those 'who don't pay any SS taxes' [!]
Besides Powell, I'd expect at least one more establishment attempt at economic sabotage.
Sabotage
I can't stand it, I know you planned it
I'm gonna set it straight, this Watergate
I can't stand rocking when I'm in here
'Cause your crystal ball ain't so crystal clear
So while you sit back and wonder why
I got this fucking thorn in my side
Oh my God, it's a mirage
I'm tellin' y'all, it's a sabotage
So, so, so, so listen up 'cause you can't say nothin'
You'll shut me down with a push of your button?
But you, I'm out and I'm gone
I'll tell you now, I keep it on and on
'Cause what you see you might not get
And we can bet, so don't you get souped yet
You're scheming on a thing that's a mirage
I'm trying to tell you now, it's sabotage
Why
Our backs are now against the wall?
Listen all y'all, it's a sabotage x4
I can't stand it, I know you planned it
I'm gonna set it straight, this Watergate
Lord, I can't stand rockin' when I'm in this place
Because I feel disgrace because you're all in my face
But make no mistakes and switch up my channel
I'm Buddy Rich when I fly off the handle
What could it be? It's a mirage
You're scheming on a thing, that's sabotage
Absolutely--if the economy is doing well in November 2026 the GOP and MAGA troops are going to steamroll the whining, carping Dimocrats. If the economy is going badly, well Team Trump and the Trumper Troops will get schlonged at the polls.
Fortunately I do not pretend to understand economics and finance. What I do know is never underestimate the long term power of the American economy. Our basic economic numbers right now are looking good. I imagine the rest of the world is going to want to fall in line and so the trade war will be really just a trade scare. I don't believe the rest of the world has been royally screwing us the way Trump claims. That was all due to the fact that we wanted the world to catch up to increase the likelihood for peaceful transactions rather than warfare.
Maybe it's time to refigure those numbers now that the economics of the world has completely rebalanced over the last 30 years
It doesn't seem like the tariff tactic is any different than what was done with NATO to get Europe to spend more money and manpower.
Re "his expensive tax cuts"
Really peaves my pet. It is widely used and has been since my youth. See also "tax increases.
It remains to be seen whether taxes will be cut but neither the prez nor congress have any power over this.
What was cut was tax RATES every time tax rates have been cut (Coolidge, Kennedy, Reagan, Trump 1) tax REVENUES have increased.
More people and companies paying lower tax rate on more activity and revenue will result in more taxes being paid, not less.
My complaint is about language, not policy.
John Henry
If Mcdonalds were to raise the price of a hamburger by $1,would they make more money or less? Probably less. They would make more money per burger sell fewer burgers and get less total revenue.
Lowering the price would sell more burgers at less revenue each and likely less total revenue.
There's a whole field called Managerial Economics dedicated to finding that sweet spot where the price maximizes revenue. It is something of an occult art. And I say that having taught it a time or 3
John Henry
For 2017, the U.S. government's revenues were 16.9% of GDP and outlays were 20.3%. In 2019, the last year before COVID, U.S. government revenues were 16.1% of GDP and outlays were 20.6% of GDP. In 2020, U.S. government revenues were 16% of GDP and outlays were 30.7%. In 2021, Biden's first year in office, U.S. government revenues were17.1% of GDP and outlays were 28.8% of GDP. For 2024, U.S. government revenues were 16.9% of GDP and outlays were 23.1%.
Congress was controlled completely by the Republicans from January 2017 until January 2019, split from January 2019 until January 2021, controlled completely by Democrats from January 2021 until January 2023, split until this past January.
Most of the added deficits the last 8.5 years is due to spending more than the economy is growing. Full stop.
Yancey Ward said...
"I don't know who hacked Howard's blogger account but I want to thank them- I agree with so many Howard comments the last 6 months."
I think he quit being a troll when he sat down with his financial advisor and saw what direction his 401K was going. And he looked at his grandkids and saw the direction the country was going. it wasn't a difficult choice.
"We have a $2T deficit because of a massive expansion of Medicaid and Biden's green energy boondoggles. Cut all of those back to 2010 levels and you have a balanced budget."
Point me to an analysis of this. I'm pretty sure a big chunk of the yuge deficit must be more Boomers collecting SS/Medicare (which is only going to get worse for a decade, at least, unless there's a deadlier pandemic), but where's the data?
I often wonder how many in our political class know what's really going on in the budget overall and why. They tend to fixate on their own small piece of interest. If the journalists understand, they're sure not telling us.
“ Freder Frederson said...
The 2017 version of these cuts were supposed to "cost" $1.5T over ten years. So far, income tax revenue is up $1.5T over the CBO baseline.
I don't know what the hell you are talking about. After assuring us that the 2017 tax cuts would pay for themselves, the deficit continued to climb and then exploded with Covid spending (which again Trump was mainly responsible for). The deficit dropped by about 1.3 T with the first budget Biden was responsible for (FY 2022).”
It really isn’t hard to understand.
Revenues are the money raised by taxes. After the original Trump tax cuts, revenues increased.
Deficits are the shortfalls when revenues are less than expenditures. The 2020 Covid spending followed by Biden’s extravagant IRA and other spending created the deficits. We have a massive spending problem. It’s hard to end deficits if there are no restraints on spending.
Has anyone in the administration or congress suggested that?
Did anyone in the last administration or congress suggest that?
Didn't think so.
Cue the reverse "Unexpectedly!" headlines.
"... income tax revenue is up $1.5T over the CBO baseline."
TRUE.
"I don't know what the hell you are talking about." - Freder Frederson
ALSO TRUE
"There's a whole field called Managerial Economics dedicated to finding that sweet spot where the price maximizes revenue."
Yep.
In the world of taxes, refer to the Laffer Curve. Same concept.
Wince: I am still waiting for the Sabotage movie to come out.
RR
JSM
Are any of those "many economists" named Krugman?
Hey, Freder: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NA000327Q
I don't see the $1.8 trillion drop after 2017. Can you point it out for me?
stlcdr said...
They always talk about tax cuts as an economic hit: to whom?
Parasites that extract money from taxpayers and people that actually work for a living.
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