"... we’re still within the New Liberal Era, and Trump’s win in 2024 won’t be enough to terminate it once we look back a few decades from now. It’s still an open question. If two consecutive Eisenhower terms weren’t enough to interrupt the Long Liberal Era, and likewise for Clinton and the Long Conservative Era, then in principle, liberalism could survive two non-consecutive terms for Trump.I actually think there are four possibilities.... Scenario 1 — Conservative Golden Age.... The easiest route to Scenario 2 — The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby! — would be if Trump mismanages some sort of crisis.... Scenario 3 — Stalemate.... Finally, Scenario 4 — Off the Charts — means that the liberal/conservative axis, as I’ve depicted it in the chart, will cease to represent American politics well. Maybe it’s centrist oligarchs and technocrats against a horseshoe theory coalition of the populist left and right.... Then, there are some darker scenarios...."
I'm reading Nate Silver's "Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age? Or will the vibe soon shift back to the left?"
January 23, 2025
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Trump isn't all that conservative.
Democratic-progressive-left are not liberal.
The left are greedy power-mongers.
The left are obligated to Soros -the billionaire family who single-handedly created open season high crime. The long list of lies and BS from the left cannot be ignored any longer.
The only way the corrupt progressives win - is thru cheating and lying.
Enter - NBC news.
[American] Conservative: pro-Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness in a Republic under a Constitution that acknowledges individual rights and mitigates authoritarian progress.
The chief dynamic force is the need for clickbait headlines. It's a business necessity.
When the "left" is in favor of more war, longer prison sentences, more law enforcement surveillance, less free speech, cancelled elections, etc., etc.... when all of that is taken into consideration...the entire premise of the question makes no sense whatsoever.
Trump isn’t conservative. Coolidge was the last conservative president. The lines now are those who oppose China and Islam and those who submit to China economically and Islam culturally. For the last 30 years, the US and Europe has submitted to China economically and Islam culturally. Islam is not culturally progressive or even liberal. If Islam prevails all the progressives and liberals will be dead.
How about Scenario 5 - Realignment Towards The Center. Many old school Liberal types crossed the aisle and voted for Trump because the Left has gone too far Left. I think this is what's really happening.
Or Scenario 6 - Nate Sliver Is A Dumbass - 'Nuff said.
When wish-casting is all you've got left......
The institutional/political ratchet is real. You can slow it down, maybe stop it, but it's virtually impossible to get it going in the opposite direction without cataclysm. Hobbes new this almost 400 years ago when he wrote Leviathan. Politics is downstream from culture, and I feel that the culture is indeed changing (watching your $5 million home in the Palisades will do that to you...), but it will still take a long time until this shows up a political zeitgeist, even more so a policy one.
The most encouraging sign I can see is that young men, especially young white men, are beginning to realize an entire culture has been politically arrayed against them and that they're going to start voting against it and for their rights as it seems every other petty interest group in this country does for theirs. This will pay untold political dividends for decades...they'll not soon forget the intense demonization they've received for a good portion of their lives nor the intensity with which people they trusted have worked tirelessly to get them to vote against their interests.
That gives me hope.
Nate Silver still trying. rh and DD have it covered.
serious question:
in another generation.. WHO will vote Democrat?
It CAN'T be the children of the current Democrat voters, because those children were either
never conceived or aborted
Will the children of the invading army of aliens vote Democrat?
That's the DNC's only hope; but it seems MUCH MORE LIKELY that those new voters will vote for some new party*
some new party* i suppose that new party Might call itself the Democrat party, but WHY would it? calling itself the American Socialist Freeride party seems more likely
It's still an open question, sure. Isn't it always? That's the thing about the future.
Anyway, whatever path we take, it will depend on the path laid out now. Trump is putting down markers. Henceforth, prog candidates will more explicitly have to oppose Trump EOs: declare themselves pro-discrimination, pro-trans, anti-speech, open border. Public opinion will decide, and state of economy will decide public opinion more than political philosophy. But for the moment: advantage Trump and post-Trump deplorables.
Wild card: behavior of progs entrenched in institutions. Will cleansing of fed gov prove temporary? Will MSM, higher ed, prog firms, NGOs hang on or go with rightward flow? Trump and his troops seem much more aware of opposing forces this time around, hence Rufo's "salting the earth" approach is in play.
Silver is overthinking and ignoring the obvious. The world has shifted HARD toward local, non-global, and traditional internal cultures. The initial hint was the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, and the intensity of the anti-global movement was clear with the 2001 WTC plane attacks. Then there was a pause with the GWOT wars and "righteous" global interventions until 2015 to 2016.
The end: UK's anti-EU Brexit came before Trump 2016, and there have been multiple shifts to the right in Germany, South America, etc. People all across the world are simply tired to being drug through their neighbors mud and dealing with weirdo they don't like or want to associate with. They don't want to die for God and Country when their countries are ruled by creeps who want their own people dead (see COVID).
The globalists at the UN, EU, NATO, WEF, WHO, DC and more turned into greedy and manipulative oligarchs and puppet masters. They are corrupt, lazy, know-it-all, bully Soviets reborn.
We have not moved away from the liberal golden age because of Trump, we moved away from the liberal golden age due to the myriad failures of liberalism. We may move back if (when?) the conservatives screw up their time in power, but it will be less a new embrace of old liberal ideas than a rejection of conservative disappointments.
I don't know. To me the fact that Trump pulled off an improbable win in 2016 suggests there was already deep dissatisfaction with the globo-corpo-woke amalgamation. Then there was the interregnum period of Biden from 2020 to now, in which society got to experience the effect of choosing, "Well, maybe it really wasn't so bad..." This is followed up by a much more substantial victory by Trump in 2024 in which Society seemed to come to the conclusion, "Nope, it really was that bad."
I'm not very familiar with it, but I believe in Stock trading there is something known as 'The Uptick Rule.' This rule requires that when a person is shorting a stock, (so betting the stock price will fall), that short sale can only be completed if the price of the stock is higher than the previous value, meaning the price makes an uptick. This is done to avoid people driving down prices of stocks with essentially marketing campaigns rather than honest sober assessments of value. In 2016 society took a short position on the globo-corpo-woke amalgamation by electing Trump. In 2020 society saw an uptick in the value of the globo-corpo-woke amalgamation when Biden took office. In 2024 society was able to execute on it's short position by reelecting Trump in an even more substantial margin.
What ends up happening, nobody has foreseen.
But those are the things you guys promulgated the last four years.
Way too soon to know.
Except for the creators/writers of The Simpsons.
Trump provides a hiatus in the progression of insanity in the US, perhaps in the world. We all know Democrats who should see that and pull the party back from destroying the country. They will have to separate themselves from TDS to do that. The nutbags in the legacy media, universities, etc., will fan the fires of lunacy.
A lot started with the Tea Party. We have been dissatisfied with our government for a long time. Remember how they treated the Tea Party patriots. We haven't forgotten. And I still have it in for Pelosi. The way she treated us....I only hope for her to suffer badly for the rest of her life. NOT sorry.
Well said, DDD.
Meaning I have nothing but BAD will towards her.
Periods like the Eisenhower and Clinton years were -- possibly or ideally -- times when ideological conflict was subordinated to real world policy questions. It didn't always work out that way and not everyone will see it that way, but compared to other eras, a pragmatic consensus formed and was acted on. Trump has the opportunity to fix some serious problems that have been around for decades. Right now, social conservatism is on the backburner and with luck DEI will be as well, and this could give us the possibility to focus pragmatically on fixing things.
There's a contrast between Eisenhower and Clinton, though. After Eisenhower the country lurched to the left (thanks to the JFK assassination, Goldwater, and civil rights). After Clinton, conservatism was quite tame (thanks to Cheney and foreign wars, among other things). If the liberal or progressive age is still ongoing and returns after Trump leaves office (barring unprecedent events like those of the Sixties), it may not be as mad and maddening as it has been under Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden.
Probably, though, it's time to reconsider the old model of liberal and conservative eras (developed by Arthur Schlesinger Sr. and Jr.) and ask if it still applies. Today's 50-50 country may not have the kind of lurches earlier history saw.
Very much agree.
Bingo! The Democrats and their media lapdogs insist on framing the story as a clash of personalities: warm welcoming America vs mean cold-blooded Trump. That's why their first instinct when reporting on the shutdown of the CBP1 app was to show crying "migrants" on the wrong side of the border wall who no longer have an appointment to get in with no oversight. They were shocked when we laughed and made fun of them, ratioing them on X.
They don't realize the actual conflict, or they refuse to admit is, is The Citizen pushing back on the State. Trump is our weapon, not our "Leader" and certainly not our "Savior." We, as in America at large, is not interested in a cult of personality. And all their proponents, the Experts, have proven to be liars and frauds in need of pardons.
But demographics is destiny. The youngest decade of voters shifted distinctly to the right this election. Trump and MAGA were seriously trending, while the Baby Boomers continue to die off. This is across ethnic groups. The Dems’ lock on Hispanics and Asians have apparently been broken, while their lock on African Americans is breaking. The most exciting Black politicians in the country are Republicans, with significant inter racial support. That feels more like a trend, than a one time anomaly.
If the indoctrination of children stops, then there is hope. The education system in America is broken, from K to University. Most, if not all, of the batsh8t crazy ideas came from universities.
It is long past time to realize that Marxist ideas, especially those of Gramsci , are the driving force behind idiots like Obama, Biden and the rest.
But Biden’s win was obtained through significant election fraud in the most populous counties in 5-6 swing states, most often by the Dems’ political machines that have controlled those cities and counties for many years. (AZ and NV were political machines, but not overtly Dem controlled). Checking that election fraud in those swing states, even a little bit, let Trump win this time around.
My point is that I don’t think that you can really view the 2020 election as really checking the move away from Democrats, but rather a one time pause, where the Dems pulled out all the stops, enabled by silly (often illegal) COVID-19 exemptions to election laws, and violating well established norms.
'I'm reading Nate Silver's "Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age? Or will the vibe soon shift back to the left?"'
Well, that's your problem right there. Nate Silver. Complete waste of time. Also, BTW, when the headline contains a question, the article never answers that question.
And note that the Democrats governed, under Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer, as if they knew that this was their last chance at power for the foreseeable future. They blew up the debt with massive, unneeded, wasteful, spending, knowing that this was their last chance to raid the federal piggy bank. And tried to lock in as much hard left policy as they could with their control over the Executive Branch.
Bingo!
Yup
All the Democrats need is another pandemic to bring any Golden Age to a halt. . The future of the GOP is not Vance, it's DeSantis.
MAGAman, woman, and child. We all live in a Constitutional Republic, a Constitutional Republic, ...
Since when was moving beyond race and racism an evil conservative idea?
Since when was Bill Maher an evil conservative?
https://youtu.be/C5S8rhNCBnc
From 1865 to 1965 the primary axis of American politics was racial policy. his led to many odd cross-party coalitions. We came to believe that such "bipartisan" coalitions were a normal feature of our political structures. We then moved to a centralized-decentralized axis with much less bipartisanship. We will probably move to a civilizationist-nihilist axis in the near future. I don't foresee a great deal of bipartisanship in the offing.
I also think Silver is way off base in looking at Eisenhower and Clinton as some sort of attempted repudiation of the overall trend. Bill Clinton was probably the most conservative Democrat Presidental candidate since JFK, even more than Carter (in campaigning, though Carter eventually governed quite conservatively in some areas such as deregulation). Eisenhower was an extremely liberal Republican in many respects. In spite of their party labels both were more in step with mainstream opinion in each era.
This kinda defeats his whole premise regarding Trump, and makes Biden more of the outlier
I sincerely hope we're right (pun intended), but I'm also never one to underestimate the power of "the ratchet" or bureaucratic inertia. I wish more people would wake up to the absolute political fact that an entity/institution might start out with an external mission, but WILL ALWAYS end up serving itself. It's survival (and especially its budget) ALWAYS becomes the mission, everything else becomes secondary.
The founders knew this implicitly along with any number of other political thinkers from Evola and De Tocqueville to Coolidge and Sowell. It is a lesson Western nations always forget.
Since LBJ decided that explicit racial preferences would get the (N-word)s to vote for Democrats for 200 years.
The focus shouldn't be on how "liberalism" is trending against "conservatism," but rather between liberalism (i.e., classical liberalism) and left-wing authoritarianism.
I gave a ago at finding something there but Nate has earned his doctorate in Thomas Friedman bumbling. Wake me when he starts writing a sports betting column, though....
Setting aside Kai's noting of RH and DDD's valid comments; my concern about the longevity of Trump's win is that despite the gains, he didn't win as big as I hoped. The Zero Hedge meme sent out just after election day didn't hold as well with California and other liberal enclaves continuing to count votes. Trump ended up under 50% even if he technically won more votes than anyone else.
Yes, I know... but that's from cheating. I don't care to argue it, because sure, cheating is the only reason I can come up with for taking more than 24 hours to count votes the first time. It's been a few months now, who has gone to jail for cheating? Maybe Congress will rollback California's egregious no voter id laws. I'm not holding my breath. And if counter actions aren't taken in these first 2 years; then I'm not confident in JD Vance, or any Republican, taking the baton from Trump.
I agree with Bruce that the last few days seemed like a Democrat fire sale on progressive ideas, as if they felt like they wouldn't have power for some time. Then again, they won't for two years, and Biden/Pelosi don't have much time to make a comeback. I'm less worried about the old leaders and more worried about the newly empowered Schiffs and other Democrats that just got pardons. They are walking away with a large chuck of change that Biden protected. We don't know how many votes that will buy, but you can bet we will learn.
As for any presidency, these first 100 days will tell us more about the long-term success to expect afterwards.
More vapid rhetoric from nate silver. As someone mentioned, once he got away from talking about what he really knows, aka sports betting, he plays the bore.
Baby steps literally, figuratively, socially, and politically.
Politics hasn't shifted from left to right. The political left shifted from left to extremist left. (And many people on the left couldn't bring themselves to vote for the extremist left.) If the political left pulls back from being extremist left, they might gain the voters back. If they don't they won't.
Ironically, the extremist left and the extremist right share many of the same qualities: Lack of respect for the law. Lack of respect for the middle class. Excessive hunger for power and control. Feeling that their way is the only way to do anything. Deep conviction of their moral superiority.
How about just an era of common sense? That's the ground that I think Trump has embraced. He even articulated it in one of his EO's directed at government employees - you may not like him or agree with him, but you need to perform your tasks faithfully.
D.D. Driver said...
“When the "left" is in favor of more war, longer prison sentences, more law enforcement surveillance, less free speech, cancelled elections, etc., etc.... when all of that is taken into consideration...the entire premise of the question makes no sense whatsoever.”
Easy. When the “left” was not in power, it was opposed to those things; now that it is in power it looks much more favorably upon them.
A history of Communism repeatedly demonstrates the point.
We have shifted, as an electorate, toward the conservative side, but we haven't had an "out conservative" as President since Reagan. Both Bushes (like them or hate them) were standard issue Republican moderates. Clinton was to some extent a less-liberal Democrat, but his record was overwhelmed by Obama, who (hide it as he might) was a strong leftist.
So, yes, Trump's defeat of H. Clinton in 2016 was an important delay to the liberal offensive, and the Left's reliance on Biden in 2020 was, to some degree, an act of desperation. As was 2024.
I don't know if Trump is or ever was a conservative. I will support him over the next couple of years, but what will happen, and who will carry the conservative banner in 2028?
When you’re right you’re right.
His idea was that the years between FDR and, say, LBJ, were the Long Liberal Era and that Eisenhower didn't represent a repudiation or an end to that era, and that the years between Reagan and, say, George W. Bush were the Long Conservative Era and that Bill Clinton didn't represent a repudiation or an end to that era. He's saying that Eisenhower and Clinton weren't out of step with their eras. He probably thinks that a new liberal or progressive era began with Obama and continued with Biden, and he's wondering if Trump has derailed that or if it will continue after he leaves office.
Silver makes some good points, but I disagree with his assessment that the democrats have become the party of the "educated."
Credentialled, yes, but "educated"? Highly questionable, since most of them couldn't tell you the difference between a derivative and an integral.
Also, he apparently categorizes the "racial and ethnic minorities without college degrees (who) began to migrate to Trump" as non-educated.
Non-credentialled I can believe, but non-educated? Hardly.
IMHO, electricians, carpenters, and mechanics deserve a lot better from you, Nate.
I concur. Pelosi is evil, was evil, and will continue to be evil until she drops dead.
And note that the Democrats governed, under Biden, Pelosi, and Schumer, as if they knew that this was their last chance at power for the foreseeable future.
^This. I was never on board with the voting machine cheating and I don't really know what to make of the "2,000 Mules" or whatever that was, but the self-congratulatory "shadowy cabal" article, the shrieking and gnashing of teeth about any real attempt at an election audit in those crucial districts (not a recount, gadfly et al.), the revelations about Twitter and Facebook, the bald-faced deception visited on the American public by the Biden administration and willingly supported, repeated, amplified in the media, concerning Biden's decline - how can I not question the 2020 results? And then, the lawfare, the again-willing complicity of the media in looping "convicted felon" a million times when any observer can see that the "felony" was crafted for this one guy, this one time, and the "convictions" were a foregone conclusion based on trial jurisdictions, the hounding of Trump supporters - these things all had a real "go for broke" character to them. A hail Mary pass, as it were, to try to win this one (last?) election, because they could see that public sentiment was turning against them.
If they'd won, there would still have been elections. But would they have been winnable by anyone not stamped with their seal of approval?
"Setting aside Kai's noting of RH and DDD's valid comments; my concern about the longevity of Trump's win is that despite the gains, he didn't win as big as I hoped. The Zero Hedge meme sent out just after election day didn't hold as well with California and other liberal enclaves continuing to count votes. Trump ended up under 50% even if he technically won more votes than anyone else.
Yes, I know... but that's from cheating. I don't care to argue it, because sure, cheating is the only reason I can come up with for taking more than 24 hours to count votes the first time. It's been a few months now, who has gone to jail for cheating? Maybe Congress will rollback California's egregious no voter id laws. I'm not holding my breath. And if counter actions aren't taken in these first 2 years; then I'm not confident in JD Vance, or any Republican, taking the baton from Trump."
I hear you, and I'm also not happy that it was so close and think that a lot of conservative commenters are being way too triumphal way too soon. That being said, the counter argument is that Trump has operated under the disadvantage that, fairly or otherwise, ~20% of the people in this country are filled with either irrational hate and/or snobbery when they are exposed to him. Exhibit A: my mom and dad. They simply will not listen to any defense of him. My dad in particular makes me crazy: he calls Trump a criminal scumbag, I point out the manifest and numerous ways in which the legal system has been unfair to him, and he just makes excuses. I tell him that he knows that the media lied to him about COVID (to his credit, he was very early in questioning the elite wisdom on that, even earlier than I was, and put his money where his mouth was by converting his economic newsletter to a skeptical discussion of health policy during the pandemic, thereby taking some risk of losing clients, although I don't know that he did lose any in the end.), he knows that they lie to him about the economy, so maybe he should consider the thought that they lie to him about Trump; he persists in his Gell-mann amnesia.
(Cont.) I actually lost my temper with him a bit over the holidays about it. That being said, he also excoriated Biden in particular and the Dems in general, said he's planning to switch his registration to Republican for the next election, and had told me during the primaries that he would vote for Desantis if he was the candidate, so my guess is that he'll go for the GOP next time. While I haven't addressed it directly with my mom yet, I suspect she will as well (ironically, she was way ahead of most people, again including myself, in recognizing that Trump had a real shot to win in 2016, I think at least partly because she had seen him enough on reality TV to recognize how charismatic he was, but she still won't hear anything good about him.) As it was, this time around Trump flipped all of the swing states and made a lot of traditional blue states much more interesting than usual (NH, NJ, MN, VA, and even NY to a certain extent.) Furthermore, both DeSantis and Vance are both pretty gung-ho about MAGA while also making a lot of the more traditional economic and social conservatives happy. I also think that Vance has already done an excellent job of establishing himself as a normal, decent person, and DeSantis is of course a master at destroying liberal premises completely and publicly; there are other promising and fairly youthful prospects who could also come along in four years' time. Meanwhile, the Dems' bench is either incredibly decrepit corruptocrats or airheaded work young'uns, and their response so far to Trump's offensive has been to double down on the same stuff that lost them this election. The contrast between how red and blue states are run is also only going to become more glaring over time; the LA fires have made them look even worse and have probably ended any realistic chance of Newsome ever being a viable candidate, and he's one of their best people. If the GOP does even a remotely decent job over the next four years, and there are as many people out there like my parents as I think there are, the next election could be a butt-whupping. After that, while I won't be as foolish as Ruy Teixeira and guarantee an emerging Republican majority, the population shifts don't look good for the Dems either; they are already predicting an 11-12 seat swing in House seats to red states in the next census, and if anything, I think they're being conservative given the way a lot of blue states are going. That of course translates into a 22-24 vote swing in the Electoral College, which is going to make it tough for the Dems to succeed.
All true. I get Nate Silver now: he looks at trends absent causes and effects. The leftists break things, then the Right has to clean them up. So he’s mildly useful, in the broadest sense, but perceives nothing more. Sort of like some crap perpetual motion gizmo you buy for your boss from a catalog to put on his desk.
Longer prison sentences for what?
Well-put. Leftitarianism has equal pull on both extremes.
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