November 30, 2024

"Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities... where Kamala Harris got fewer votes compared with Joseph R. Biden Jr. and which voting blocs drove each city’s red shift."

Here's a free-access link to a detailed analysis at the NYT. Please spend some time understanding these maps. They're loaded with information, and the text makes it hard to discern what I think is the main trend: Harris generally lost ground among all non-white groups.

That article has 5 authors and no comments section.

IN THE COMMENTS HERE: There is support for the idea that the extra votes counted for Biden did not represent human beings at all, but were the fake votes of what was a stolen election in 2020. That's a notion that will not go away easily. Perhaps the new Trump administration will investigate and either uncover the fraud or prove it didn't happen, but Trump couldn't come up with much proof before January 6, 2021, and it might be a disaster for him to devote this new presidential term to questioning the legitimacy of the presidential term that escaped him. Concentrate on doing great things for the American people and ensuring that future elections are scrupulously accurate.

AND: Speaking of conspiracy theories, on another post this morning, Lem, the commenter, wrote: "Conspiracy theory Althouse is the best Althouse 😌." So if you're disappointed that I won't lean into the stolen-election theory, you can go over there and see what I had to say about Biden carrying the "Hundred Years’ War on Palestine" book.

57 comments:

Enigma said...

Translation: Major blue cities found it harder to inflate the Democratic vote per closer attention given to voting software, rules, and enforcement.

rehajm said...

Democrats have lost ground amongst all living voters. It’s your policies and I say that knowing you won’t stop slicing and dicing the electorate by race

rehajm said...

How often are the comment sections turned off? Is it an indicator of the lack of confidence in the propaganda they are selling?

Leland said...

Interesting, in some of Houston's oldest and richest neighborhoods (River Oaks and Heights), that have had little growth as they've existed for decades, there were more votes for both candidates, yet these are the areas which essentially unchanged politically. Wonder where they got all those extra votes?

Eric the Fruit Bat said...

Surely those non-whites will return to the fold when the Democrats double-down on DEI.

jaydub said...

I don't know if the NYT "analysis" of voters is accurate or not, but given the paper's seemingly genetic anti-Trump/anti-Republican slant, why should any of your readers believe any political article (or anything else) written in this reprehensible fish wrap?

rehajm said...

Not even the no-pay-back loans to black guys saved them…

Jaq said...

The fact is that minorities in major cities are the most exposed to job and housing competition from the millions of migrants that Joe Biden invited in. It doesn't take a genius to figure it out.

For the rest of us, it's waiting longer for medical care, because, well, these millions of migrants don't seem to include doctors, nurses, surgeons, etc, but they come with medical needs same as any other group of millions of people.

Third Coast said...

I can't imagine any Republican other than Trump who could've attracted minority voters like he did. Don't know if they'll admit it, but the anti-Trump, pro-DeSantis Republicans here (especially one named after a fruit) were entirely wrong about their predictions.

gilbar said...

This!
Once you postulate that the 10 MILLION votes that Biden got,
that Harris ( and Hillary (and Obama)) didn't get weren't real votes..
It ALL makes Much More Sense

Wilbur said...

I guess the Russian disinformation campaigns were remarkably successful.

Money Manger said...

Once the Democrats figure out that most of the recent illegal immigrants are actually conservative Catholics, who will eventually vote Republican, they will push to build a wall.

Enigma said...

Conservative Catholics plus gangs, drug runners, sex traffickers, common criminals, and wannabe warlords. These are precisely who the global left struggles to control with propaganda, grand ideological visions, and state money gifts. Establishment conservatives (patriots and rule keepers) are simple to control if not threatened and given space to live how they want to live.

But, today's left are naive alt-conservatives founding Green and Woke and Revolutionary religions. They do not understand their own ideologies and are not liberal or democratic in any way.

Maynard said...

I guess there were no inner city precincts reporting 110% voting for Obama. Oops. I mean Harris.

Jaq said...

Even Starmer in the UK is admitting that unfettered migration was a bad idea.

https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1862604260938043615

This isn't hard. The best use of those maps might be to identify areas where the red shift didn't happen to identify areas where vote fraud is the strongest.

robother said...

I remember hearing the term "Yellow Dog Democrat" first when I moved to Texas in 1970, to describe the kind of voter who would vote Democrat even if the party nominated a yellow dog. Even in liberal Austin circles, it denoted contempt for the low information voter (not surprising since it was an artifact of the Lost Cause resentment of Reconstruction). As the NYT analysis demonstrates, the college-educated whites who are now the Yellow Dog Democrats.

stlcdr said...

All sounds interesting and all, with several theories. The problem with trying to explain this is that there is no control group. Are there cities where there were no changes?

Iman said...

What say rich? What say bich?

bich has left the building…

mikee said...

So what you're telling me is POC can spot a DEI scam artist? Got it.

Howard said...

It's the economy stupid. At both macro and micro scales. The question becomes will the Republicans actually have the balls to give the billionaires, who have been skimming all of the cream off the top since the mid-70s, a serious haircut.

One argument against that is to say well they will just invest their money overseas. That can be easily combated by not allowing them to do business in the United States of America unless they expose themselves to American wealth taxation. The true power of this country is the productivity of the people. Not the brilliant mathematical skills of the money changers on Wall Street.

Zavier Onasses said...

I would be wary of comparisons involving the no-rules 2020 election unless the overvotes were first pared down to the ordinary level of fraud.

Peachy said...

I love how they stuck the jr. on the end of Biden. That's new.

Peachy said...

Blue cities are gross now. Like Pelosi cares?

Yancey Ward said...

Republicans finally did what I have advocated for 4 years- get serious about getting their voters to vote early and/or by mail. By getting their voters to the polls early those names are no longer available for any shenanigans on or after Election Day.

Those maps are a small subset of a trend I was following and writing about in Althouse's election night thread- I was taking the counties of Kentucky, Indiana, and Virginia and comparing their finished counts to 2020's results and in just every single case Trump improved his %margin vs 2020 and in almost every case his gross numbers, too, while Harris ran behind Biden in both significantly. I basically knew for certain Trump was going to win when Arizona dropped their early vote numbers just after their polls closed for night and Trump was only behind by a little bit- just comparing them to 2020 I knew Trump was going to win Arizona by at least 4%.

Jamie said...

Before reading any comments - thanks for the link; those maps are indeed very interesting.

Yancey Ward said...

Another thing we didn't see this election that we saw a lot of in 2020 was shutting down counts for a while and then doing counting while actively hiding the work behind closed doors or even putting up barriers to prevent observers of seeing what was being done- I am guessing the GOP didn't allow the Democrats to do that this time without running to court immediately.

Yancey Ward said...

And one other thing was significantly different in this election versus the one one in 2020- places like Philadelphia County, PA and Wayne County, Michigan were forced by someone to put up the actual numbers of ballots left to be counted with regular updates. In 2020, for example, Philadelphia County added 200K votes, almost all of which went to Biden, while at the time they had reported via the NYTimes election page that they had already counted greater than 95% of their ballots.

HistoryDoc said...

5 journalists with (probably) ivey league degrees unable to put 2 and 2 together.

When one compares 2020 with 2024, so much conspiratorial speculation has finally been substantiated. Repub's got the message, didn't let that aspect of history repeat itself.

Birches said...

I looked at the Atlanta maps for quite a bit of time. I suspect that areas where Kamala did better (Buckhead is the most glaring example), are areas where new residents came in greater numbers. People who were fine with lockdowns moved to Buckhead. People who thought people in Buckhead acted silly during Covid left.

DavidD said...

“Harris generally lost ground among all non-white groups.” Victor Davis Hanson said that this was because Trump treated them as equals:
https://twitchy.com/warren-squire/2024/11/30/victor-davis-hanson-piers-morgan-trump-class-n2404438

Achilles said...

Four things make wealthy people wealthier:

1. High domestic Taxes/Regulations and no tariffs on imports.
2. High energy prices.
3. War.
4. Open Borders to reduce wages.

Both parties played this game. This is why the wealthy tried to kill and jail Trump.

Achilles said...

X was the difference.

When they could sensor all major information sources they could board up windows at counting stations in big blue cities and keep everyone out with police and print ballots for days after the election.

Without censorship in 2024 this was not possible.

Birches said...

Ok, now that I've had more time to look at the other maps...the Phoenix map is weird. Really weird because it's showing only one half of the Valley. It makes me think they're manipulating the maps to reinforce their narrative. I suppose the East Valley is still solid Red, but there are areas with high Latino populations in Apache Junction, Guadalupe, and Mesa? How did they look compared to 2020?

Birches said...

How did the Pima reservation vote compared to 2020? That would be interesting. But not included in the map.

Original Mike said...

"Perhaps the new Trump administration will investigate and either uncover the fraud or prove it didn't happen,"

The evidence, the outside envelopes of mail-in ballots, is long, long gone. Move on and fix the electoral process so it can't happen in the future.

Original Mike said...

And scrub the voter rolls.

Christopher B said...

There are other maps floating around that show the entire country shifting red to a greater or lesser degree though I will admit I haven't seen how the data used for comparison. This is not inconsistent with the assumption that Democrats were better positioned to take advantage of election procedures relaxed due to COVID.

Earnest Prole said...

There is support for the idea that the extra votes counted for Biden did not represent human beings at all, but were the fake votes of what was a stolen election in 2020.

Right, Democrats so mastered the art of the steal in 2020 that they did it to the tune of millions of unnecessary votes just to show off, then suddenly forgot how to cheat in 2024.

It’s a lot like the claim that January 6, 2021 was an insurrection, yet the insurrectionists somehow forgot all their guns at home.

Do you people have any idea how dopey you sound? Copium is a powerful drug.

narciso said...

they stole four senate seats, thats the twist, the ones most likely to support the President's agenda, Michigan Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin

Jupiter said...

Yeah, I'm going to stop wasting my money on the losers at the RNC and just send it straight to Putin. That man knows how to run a Republican campaign!

Jupiter said...

Really? You are sufficiently familiar with the geography of those cities to make sense of them?

JIM said...

The California Secretary of State publishes the specific ink colors for mail in ballots for public consumption. Why would she do something like that? Does the US Treasury publish the specific ink colors for our currency?
Californians can also pre date their mail in ballots and then send them via mail post election, up to 7 days late.
Ballot curing is also a thing.
California is a universal mail ballot state., everyone is mailed a ballot, unless you opt out. Not long ago, mail in ballots here only accounted for about 6% of all ballots counted, now it's north of 80%.
So, if you were wondering why California just finished counting ballots, and Florida was done before November 6th, elections do indeed have consequences - Democrats making election laws is the same as giving thieves the combination to your safe. But there's no cheating., that's just baseless Trump conspiracy stuff.

Jupiter said...

"Trump couldn't come up with much proof before January 6, 2021".
Perhaps that's because he relied upon the snake William Barr.

Static Ping said...

There is no debate that mail-in voting is an easy avenue to fraud, such that not long ago everyone agreed that mail-in voting was an easy avenue to fraud. The 2020 election was mail-in voting in huge numbers. It is not a conspiracy theory to notice the obvious.

Aggie said...

Note to self: This Bullsh*t is still going on in California.

Aggie said...

Except Milwaukee.

Joe Bar said...

I see they're not using "Latinx" anymore.

Joe Bar said...

More telling is that he admitted it was done deliberately.

Mr Wibble said...

I doubt that any investigation is going to show conclusive proof that Trump won 2020, just evidence that fraud was present. More likely, the big threat to the establishment is that any honest investigation would show that a) there were Senate and state government races that were stolen and, more importantly, b) that local election officials in key counties and states have mismanaged their elections to a horrific extent, such as embezzling money, funneling it to friends and relatives through contracts, and failing to adhere to some of the most basic election requirements, such as training, supplies, and equipment security.

donald said...

Might wanna look in a mirror Junior.

MikeD said...

"Trump couldn't come up with much proof before January 6, 2021," How would you know? Courts all shut down lawsuits based on a "lack of standing" to file.

Mr. T. said...

The billinionaires and millinionaires are all government bureaucrats, government union thugs/lawyers, corrupt college faculry/administrators, and federal & state cabinet positions


Start raising the taxes on the rich: the government class.

Lazarus said...

Is that heavily Jewish Northeast Philadelphia that turned so heavily to Trump? Or is it heavily African-American North Philadelphia? I do notice a little movement to Harris in the suburbs.

Craig Mc said...

As Scott Adams says, the if you were to design a system with untraceable fraud, 2020's mail-in voting was it. There'll never be proof either way.

Craig Mc said...

Maybe he thought it was the England/France one. Or maybe he's a kleptomaniac and just stole the first thing he saw.

Jim at said...

Right, Democrats so mastered the art of the steal in 2020 that they did it to the tune of millions of unnecessary votes just to show off, then suddenly forgot how to cheat in 2024.

In 2024, did five swing states suddenly stop counting all at once, send everybody home, start counting again and miraculously have Harris in the lead when they updated their totals three hours later? No. Know why? Because we weren't going to let them pull that shit again.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Thank you for the link, that was really interesting.

Although "near 1/2 of Trump's gain in this city came from latinos" is a meaningless statement those times they didn't tell what % of voters were latino, and where the other 50% came from