Althouse: "Well, it happened. It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50.... But for the fourth time... the streams have crossed..."

October 18, 2024

"Well, it happened. It was almost inevitably going to happen at some point, given how close the forecast has been to 50/50.... But for the fourth time... the streams have crossed..."

"... and the nominal favorite in the race has changed. Thanks in part to one of the first high-quality national polls in weeks to show him ahead — yes, it’s from Fox News, but Fox News polling has no history of GOP bias — Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line — and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent — for the first time since Sept. 19. (Harris remains a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the popular vote, but that’s not how American elections are decided.)"

Wrote Nate Silver yesterday (at Silver Bulletin).

117 comments:

Iman said...: I don’t believe it’s this close. I have more faith in Americans… I think most see right through Harris. There’s no there there.; 10/18/24, 10:10 AM
Political Junkie said...: Hope DJT will keep the Big Mo. Early voting starts in TX next Monday. I will sneak in early Wednesday to vote against every D in every race! No mercy!; 10/18/24, 10:11 AM
Political Junkie said...: Without my googling, was GHWB the person who first used the phrase "Big Mo"?; 10/18/24, 10:12 AM
Political Junkie said...: Iman - I am with you. But, W was pretty empty, and he won twice.; 10/18/24, 10:14 AM
RideSpaceMountain said...: There's only one thing that can help Kamala at this point, and that's to follow Bret Baier's advice and "do more of these" unscripted and unedited interviews.

She should bring her arm-waving staffers too.; 10/18/24, 10:15 AM
Laurel said...: Voting Monday morning as soon as early voting opens in Texas. My youngest, a perennial non-voter, is voting this year. 2 votes for Trump. He needs to win and immediately exact retribution for Russia-Gate, 2 phony impeachments, and 4 years of lawfare. The Dems will only learn when they pay a painful price.; 10/18/24, 10:16 AM
Tim said...: He is a day late and a dollar short. RCP has been showing that for two weeks, and the betting markets have Trump pushing 60 percent.; 10/18/24, 10:16 AM
Václav Patrik Šulik said...: As Silver notes, there are basically two Fox news divisions - one is the partisan division of Sean Hannity and Jesse Watters. The other is the straight up news division - the same division that (properly) declared Joe Biden the winner of Arizona in 2000 and has Bret Baier as a lead anchor. Frankly, as a center-left guy, I have a lot of respect for this contingent.; 10/18/24, 10:18 AM
Oso Negro said...: The pollsters have Inga’s 15 burner phones on speed dial. And there are others; 10/18/24, 10:19 AM
mikee said...: I don't think anyone is polling the political operatives who are harvesting mail in ballots for their candidate. That is where the election will be decided, in millions of votes that otherwise wouldn't be cast - just as in 2020, when the dementia patient in his basement got 81 million legal, unauditable votes.; 10/18/24, 10:20 AM
Political Junkie said...: Good take, VPS. As you identify center left, felt I had to give you thumbs up for your analysis. I say it is spot on. Bavo!; 10/18/24, 10:21 AM
tim maguire said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/18/24, 10:21 AM
tim maguire said...: Most voters treat the US as a parliamentary democracy--they don't vote for the person, they vote for the party. It doesn't matter how bad the candidate is because the candidate, no matter how awful personally, will support their party's priorities and promote their party's people.

40% will always vote Dem, 40% will always vote Rep, and the campaign is to win over the middle 20%. Trump should win this election 60-40. Why anyone who isn't a partisan Democrat would vote for Harris is a mystery to me.; 10/18/24, 10:23 AM
Political Junkie said...: Laurel - Not sure I agree. If DJT wins, and wins the popular vote, I think he should focus on having a successful term, building the R party in all 50 states, and fight the federal debt/deficit.; 10/18/24, 10:24 AM
Kate said...: Trump's peaking at the right time. My vote's already mailed in and done.; 10/18/24, 10:24 AM
Christopher B said...: In 2016 Silver recognized you can make a good business selling cope to nervous Democrats, and he's been going to the bank ever since.; 10/18/24, 10:25 AM
Robert Cook said...: "Why anyone who isn't a partisan Democrat would vote for Harris is a mystery to me."

Because the only other choice is Donald Trump. Which is no choice at all. I'm not voting for Harris; I'm voting for NOT TRUMP.

(The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump. But, as we learned from the example of Nazi Germany, rational people are not in the majority in any random cohort of people.); 10/18/24, 10:36 AM
Money Manger said...: On Wall Street, before a big earnings or economic number is released, there is always the official forecast (the average of the Official Forecasters); and then there is the "Whisper Number", the expected number as estimated, and bet on, by the smartest, savviest investors. The Whisper Number is what matters.

In the Presidential Election, there is clearly a gap between the official forecasts, by Silver and many others (~50/50), and the Whisper Number (Trump by a solid margin).; 10/18/24, 10:37 AM
Aggie said...: The betting odds are leaning heavily to Trump, and now show the House as a 50-50 chance of R majority. Senate is 80% R majority.

If this plays out, I see Trump working very hard to make JD Vance the clear Presidential choice for 2028. I don't think he'll get much credit for it, but I think this would be entirely in character for Trump. I don't know the historical precedent for the office - usually the VP is kept behind the scenes, doing thankless tasks. We shall see.; 10/18/24, 10:38 AM
Duke Dan said...: You can vote not Trump without voting for Harris - just sayin; 10/18/24, 10:41 AM
john mosby said...: Junkie - the thing is, to have a successful term, Trump really needs to defend himself from lawfare by conducting offensive lawfare. Only if they are in court as defendants will the D’s be even somewhat deterred or disabled from going after Trump. A credible threat of prosecution will certainly help keep the deep staters from actively thwarting him the way they did in his first term.

JSM; 10/18/24, 10:43 AM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/18/24, 10:45 AM
Inga said...: “(The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump. But, as we learned from the example of Nazi Germany, rational people are not in the majority in any random cohort of people.)”

So many people don’t seem to be aware that the Germans actually VOTED for Hitler. Every day that we get closer to Election Day, these comments sections sound more like 1933. Intelligent people, people who should know better…; 10/18/24, 10:47 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Robert, if the party labels of Trump and Harris were reversed with all else being equal, you would vote for the Democrat.; 10/18/24, 10:47 AM
Hassayamper said...: I don't think anyone is polling the political operatives who are harvesting mail in ballots for their candidate.

We need a different term than "harvesting" for collecting ballots from nursing homes and empty lots and housing projects and abortion clinics and union halls, unseen by the people who putatively live there and whose names are on the envelope, and having them filled out by ward-heelers in back rooms.; 10/18/24, 10:50 AM
Inga said...: No, because any vote for a third party candidate or not voting is the same as a vote for Trump. Not voting for Hillary back in 2016 proved this. Anti -Trump Americans know this by now.; 10/18/24, 10:51 AM
wild chicken said...: Ugh, it's too early. He needs to peak on the last weekend like in 2016. That was classic.; 10/18/24, 10:57 AM
hombre said...: Cook: "The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump." This is the attitude sought by the leftmedia blitz against Trump. Many, hopefully most, of us do not consider it rational to cede control of our minds to ignorant journalists.; 10/18/24, 11:04 AM
hombre said...: Cook: "The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump." This is the attitude sought by the leftmedia blitz against Trump. Many, hopefully most, of us do not consider it rational to cede control of our minds to ignorant journalists.; 10/18/24, 11:04 AM
BG said...: What makes you think he's right now at the peak?; 10/18/24, 11:06 AM
BG said...: What makes you think he's at the peak right now? He has over two weeks left.; 10/18/24, 11:08 AM
Dixcus said...: Trump sure does seem to be a threat to Democracy. Which is exactly what he SHOULD be. We don't decide our Presidents by popular vote, for a very good reason. And the United State isn't a "democracy." In a "democracy" the popular can outlaw the unpopular.

We live in a Constitutional Republic. And we're going to keep it that way.; 10/18/24, 11:10 AM
Dixcus said...: They could succeed in murdering Trump. That would help Kamala. And they're going to try to do precisely that.; 10/18/24, 11:11 AM
RideSpaceMountain said...: We already had (allegedly) assassin #3 just a week ago. There's still plenty of time for them to find another *Bad Genes*; 10/18/24, 11:22 AM
Robert Cook said...: "Robert, if the party labels of Trump and Harris were reversed with all else being equal, you would vote for the Democrat."

Not at all. I'm puzzled at your thinking. Do you think I would vote knee jerk for the Dems? In fact, I haven't voted Democrat in Presidential elections since 1992. I've been voting Green Party since 1996. I'm ONLY voting for the Dem candidate this time around because the alternative is Trump. I'm voting NOT TRUMP. (I could afford not to vote for Trump in 2020 because I was still living in NYC at the time, and I knew Trump didn't have a chance of winning NY.); 10/18/24, 11:26 AM
tcrosse said...: Robert Cook is so much more enlightened than us, which is why he stands with the oligarchs and war mongers.; 10/18/24, 11:28 AM
Political Junkie said...: Dixcus - I of course do not want this, but I predict if DJT was killed today that JD would win in a landslide.; 10/18/24, 11:30 AM
Original Mike said...: "Donald Trump now has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. "

That is way below the level necessary to overcome fraud. If that poll is accurate, Harris wins.; 10/18/24, 11:31 AM
Marcus Bressler said...: The TDS confessions continue; 10/18/24, 11:31 AM
Original Mike said...: "The real mystery is that any rational being could even consider Trump. But, as we learned from the example of Nazi Germany, rational people are not in the majority in any random cohort of people."

Nazi Germany? Fuck you.

I'm voting, above all else, to prevent another 10 million undocumented people from being imported into our country.; 10/18/24, 11:35 AM
Dogma and Pony Show said...: I have had the same thought regarding a Trump assassination leading to JD's winning. Actually, at this point, Trump's name would presumably remain on the ballot in most places. But regardless, I think Trump/Vance would win going away because (a) people wouldn't want to "reward" the assassin(s) with kamala win; and (b) a lot of people who are repelled by the idea of voting for Trump don't have the same level of hatred toward JD.; 10/18/24, 11:36 AM
Robert Cook said...: "So many people don’t seem to be aware that the Germans actually VOTED for Hitler. Every day that we get closer to Election Day, these comments sections sound more like 1933. Intelligent people, people who should know better…."

Another baffling comment. Do you think I didn't know Hitler won the majority of the vote? That is the exact point of my comment. Purportedly "rational" German citizens voted for Hitler. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them quietly maintained their support for him even after the death of Hitler and fall of Germany. His electoral victory shows the prevalence of irrationality in the German populace and voters, just as with Americans today, and most or all large human populations anywhere.; 10/18/24, 11:37 AM
Robert Cook said...: Or perhaps, Inga, your comment was an affirmation of my comment. I first took it as some sort of dispute. My apologies, if I misread you.; 10/18/24, 11:40 AM
Inga said...: Yes Robert, my comment was an affirmation of yours. Directed to the mostly intelligent but sadly very mislead commenters here.; 10/18/24, 11:42 AM
Milwaukie guy said...: It's exasperating for me as a constitutionalist to be subjected to the fascist label, Cookie and Inga. Project much?

I try to return the favor by always calling the Democrats communists. Some people say that's going too far, they're just sort of socialists. It's really just a difference in velocity.

When I meet new people here in the WVa panhandle and they ask where I came from, I say I'm a refugee from communist Oregon. Besides grins all around, twice guys have said, I need to buy you a beer.

After decades in Chicago and and 15 years cheek-to-jowl with Portland OR, life away from flocks of Ingas and Karens is invigorating. Vote Trump, Save the Republic.; 10/18/24, 11:42 AM
Robert Cook said...: Heil Trump, Original Mike!; 10/18/24, 11:42 AM
Dogma and Pony Show said...: So, Inga (and Cook), you'd be willing to see another 10 million unvetted illegals let into the country if it means Trump doesn't get another four years as president? Is there an upper limit to how many such unvetted illegal you would tolerate to prevent Trump from getting another term? How much additional inflation is that worth?

For that matter, does it matter to you AT ALL what happens to the country, or is Trump's not being president the only thing you care about? Thanks in advance.; 10/18/24, 11:46 AM
Robert Cook said...: My turn to offer my confirmation to YOUR comment, Inga! That's exactly it!; 10/18/24, 11:47 AM
Kakistocracy said...: If all states were like Maine and Nebraska candidates would have to campaign to a more broad electorate and there would be better policies.; 10/18/24, 11:49 AM
gilbar said...: Whisper Number (Trump by a solid margin)

BUT.. The Question IS: will that "solid margin" be beyond the margin of fraud?
i doubt it. The Democrat Party is SO CONFIDENT, that they are running Kammy Harris; 10/18/24, 11:52 AM
Christopher B said...: So many people don’t seem to be aware that the Germans actually VOTED for Hitler.

Do you think I didn't know Hitler won the majority of the vote?

This is leftie/Democrat "Republicans are Nazis" propaganda, and in Cooks case an outright lie. Thought the National Socialist Workers Party held the most seats in the Reichstag in the early 1930s (though losing significantly in 1932) it was never close to winning a majority of the popular vote. The refusal of the German Communist Party to cooperate with non-Nazi parties in forming a coalition government meant that the remaining parties had no choice but to include Hitler.; 10/18/24, 11:54 AM
gilbar said...: Surprise! Surprise! Life Long Liberal Igna and Life Long Communist Cook agree that a republican government would be "Bad"!; 10/18/24, 11:54 AM
Robert Cook said...: RE: Dogma and Pony Show: Trump was a shit president, (and he is a shit human being, completely amoral and concerned only and entirely with himself). The "benefits" of his first term were largely (if not entirely) the continuing effects of the economy Obama built over the eight years of his two terms, (and don't forget he entered office with the recent collapse of Wall Street in the last year of Bush's second term). If you examine Trump's boasts, (bringing back jobs from overseas, "building a wall", etc.), he didn't accomplish any of them.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
Inga said...: Dogma…
It’s because I DO care what happens to this country that I would never want to see an autocrat like Trump in power. That should concern Americans more than a following a cult figure.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
mccullough said...: Hindenburg defeated Hitler and Thälmann in the 1932 German election for president. But the Nazis and the Communists both gained seats in the Reichstag in the 1932 elections.

Fascism and Communism. That was Europe in the 20s and 30s. Now
Europe is Islam.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
mccullough said...: Hindenburg defeated Hitler and Thälmann in the 1932 German election for president. But the Nazis and the Communists both gained seats in the Reichstag in the 1932 elections.

Fascism and Communism. That was Europe in the 20s and 30s. Now
Europe is Islam.; 10/18/24, 11:56 AM
Christopher B said...: It's odds of winning, based on running thousands of simulated elections via a computer model, not polling results.; 10/18/24, 11:57 AM
mccullough said...: If all states were Maine and Nebraska we would die from boredom; 10/18/24, 11:57 AM
gilbar said...: It certainly would be Interesting, if California went that way (or Illinois (or New York))..
BUT, the ONLY states that have/would/could do that are Red States; 10/18/24, 11:58 AM
Original Mike said...: Millions packed off to be murdered in concentration camps, just like Trump's first term. You're a fucking idiot, Cook.; 10/18/24, 12:15 PM
Robert Cook said...: "This is leftie/Democrat "Republicans are Nazis" propaganda, and in Cooks case an outright lie...blah blah blah." Yes, I did forget my history. Mea Culpa. Hitler did not win a majority of the vote, but he was popular enough among the Germans that Hindenburg appointed Hitler as Chancellor, due to Hitler's popularity. Upon Hindenburg's death, Hitler took power. And, the German people did become deeply and irrationally enamored of Hitler, just as so many Americans are enamored--irrationally--with Trump.; 10/18/24, 12:17 PM
Robert Cook said...: Ugh. I should have been more careful in my copy-editing above, regarding my redundant statements about Hitler's popularity.; 10/18/24, 12:19 PM
Wilbur said...: Neither Hitler nor the National Socialists Workers Party ever won a majority of the vote in a national election. After Hitler became Chancellor, they did win a plebescite (referendum) on the single question of whether the offices of Chancellor and President should be combined into one office. This occurred after the President (Hindenberg) died in office. They got 90% of the vote, although marred by rampant voter intimidation by the Brownshirts.

Some of us know this. Some of us don't.; 10/18/24, 12:21 PM
tcrosse said...: It has been predicted that if Trump wins there will be a huge mental health crisis. Luckily, Canada offers assisted suicide.; 10/18/24, 12:33 PM
Robert Cook said...: "Millions packed off to be murdered in concentration camps, just like Trump's first term. You're a fucking idiot, Cook."

It's not about the acts of the respective "people's choices," (Hitler and Trump), it's about the irrationality of the the people who support obviously malignant people for leadership, which reveals their own malignant drives. Trump himself said he could shoot a man on 5th Avenue and he wouldn't lose a vote. At the time, that seemed like a bit of cheeky personal boasting, but subsequent years reveal how accurate Trump was. He can do and say anything, boast of accomplishments not accomplished, lie, stand in front of a crowd for 30 minutes without saying a word, swaying to his favorite songs, whatever it may be, and his believers keep believin'. I have little doubt he could set up concentration camps, etc., and his followers would support him.; 10/18/24, 12:37 PM
David53 said...: True. I would say most Americans don't know how Hitler came to power and they don't really care.; 10/18/24, 12:43 PM
Dogma and Pony Show said...: Looks like you both must have attended the Kamala Harris Academy of Ignoring the Substance of a Question. The question is how many more unvetted aliens, how much more inflation, how many more botched military evacuations, etc., would you be willing to see over the next four years if it at least meant that Trump wasn't president? Is there any point at which the prospect of actual bad things happening to the country would outweigh your desire not to have Trump in the White House?

The reason I ask is that you both seem to think it'd be absolutely intolerable if Trump wins, so much so that nobody should care about immigration, crime, inflation, girls having to share restrooms with boys, censorship, or anything other problems taking place in the country right now. The extent and depth of your reasoning seems to be "Trump = BAD." If there's more to it, can you at least try to explain?

Let me ask you this: What material harm befell the country as a result of the first Trump administration that causes you to conclude that conditions will get so much worse in his second term than they are now, after four years of Biden-Harris?; 10/18/24, 12:44 PM
loudogblog said...: "Don't cross the streams!"; 10/18/24, 12:48 PM
Original Mike said...: " I have little doubt he could set up concentration camps, etc., and his followers would support him."

Absolutely absurd. This is your mental illness, Cook, not Trump voters'.; 10/18/24, 12:56 PM
Rabel said...: The Fox News poll cited was completed before the Bret Baier interview with Harris.

For some her performance in that interview was disqualifying. It surely didn't raise her numbers.; 10/18/24, 12:57 PM
Aught Severn said...: It would upend the system to the right as much as NPV would upend it to the left. Consider the Commonwealth of Virginia. If the slate of electors was distributed based off of the results of the counties (basically following the electoral college layout but at the state level) essentially all electors outside of NoVa and Richmond would be red. Same with CA, probably same with NY.

An interesting thought experiment, but pure fantasy.; 10/18/24, 1:01 PM
Original Mike said...: " I have little doubt he could set up concentration camps, etc., and his followers would support him."

This is exactly the mind of shit that has people trying to murder him. Shame on you, Robert Cooke.; 10/18/24, 1:03 PM
loudogblog said...: "So many people don’t seem to be aware that the Germans actually VOTED for Hitler. Every day that we get closer to Election Day, these comments sections sound more like 1933."

Inga has finally crossed the Rubicon into the Trump = Hitler fallacy. Anybody who has actually studied history knows that Trump is not comparable to Hitler. In fact, Hitler would have hated Trump. Hitler was a socialist who hated capitalism, free markets, free speech, Christianity and Jewish people. Granted, Hitler really liked Germany, but what politician doesn't publicly say that they love their country and want to make it great? And most of the countries in the free world control their borders much more strictly than we do.

BTW, add Robert Cook to that list of people suffering from the Trump = Hitler fantasy. Remember Robert, just because you keep repeating a lie over and over doesn't make it true. (Unless you think like Joseph Goebbles.); 10/18/24, 1:09 PM
loudogblog said...: The Democrat push for early voting might be their undoing in this election. Harris has no time to recover since so many votes have already been cast. Most of the people I know here in California have already voted by mail.; 10/18/24, 1:16 PM
Inga said...: “Remember Robert, just because you keep repeating a lie over and over doesn't make it true. (Unless you think like Joseph Goebbles.)”

“Trump's ex-press secretary recalls method of lying he taught her.

Former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham recalls a moment when former President Donald Trump told her, ”As long as you keep repeating something, it doesn't matter what you say."; 10/18/24, 1:18 PM
Kakistocracy said...: Nebraska government is unique and I should have mentioned in my previous comment.

The Legislature is composed of 49 members, chosen by a single-member district or constituency. Senators are chosen for four-year terms, with one-half of the seats up for election every second year. In effect, this results in half the chamber being elected at the same time as the President of the United States, and the other half elected at the same time as other statewide elections. Senators must be qualified voters who are at least 21 years old and have lived in the district they wish to represent for at least one year. A constitutional amendment passed in 2000 limits senators to two consecutive terms. However, a former senator is re-eligible for election after four years. Senators receive $12,000 a year.

Rather than separate primary elections held to choose Republican, Democratic, and other partisan contenders for a seat, Nebraska uses a single nonpartisan blanket primary, in which the top two vote-getters are entitled to run in the general election. There are no formal party alignments or groups within the Legislature. Coalitions tend to form issue by issue based on a member's philosophy of government, geographic background, and constituency. However, almost all the members of the legislature are known to be either Democrats or Republicans, and the state branches of both parties explicitly endorse candidates for legislative seats.

Other states could learn a lot regarding cost/efficiency of government.; 10/18/24, 1:22 PM
Inga said...: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/trump-authoritarian-rhetoric-hitler-mussolini/680296/

“Rhetoric has a history. The words democracy and tyranny were debated in ancient Greece; the phrase separation of powers became important in the 17th and 18th centuries. The word vermin, as a political term, dates from the 1930s and ’40s, when both fascists and communists liked to describe their political enemies as vermin, parasites, and blood infections, as well as insects, weeds, dirt, and animals. The term has been revived and reanimated, in an American presidential campaign, with Donald Trump’s description of his opponents as “radical-left thugs” who “live like vermin.”

This language isn’t merely ugly or repellant: These words belong to a particular tradition. Adolf Hitler used these kinds of terms often. In 1938, he praised his compatriots who had helped “cleanse Germany of all those parasites who drank at the well of the despair of the Fatherland and the People.” In occupied Warsaw, a 1941 poster displayed a drawing of a louse with a caricature of a Jewish face. The slogan: “Jews are lice: they cause typhus.” Germans, by contrast, were clean, pure, healthy, and vermin-free. Hitler once described the Nazi flag as “the victorious sign of freedom and the purity of our blood.”

Peter Wehner: Have you listened lately to what Trump is saying?

Stalin used the same kind of language at about the same time. He called his opponents the “enemies of the people,” implying that they were not citizens and that they enjoyed no rights. He portrayed them as vermin, pollution, filth that had to be “subjected to ongoing purification,” and he inspired his fellow communists to employ similar rhetoric. In my files, I have the notes from a 1955 meeting of the leaders of the Stasi, the East German secret police, during which one of them called for a struggle against “vermin activities” (there is, inevitably, a German word for this: Schädlingstätigkeiten), by which he meant the purge and arrest of the regime’s critics. In this same era, the Stasi forcibly moved suspicious people away from the border with West Germany, a project nicknamed “Operation Vermin.”“; 10/18/24, 1:30 PM
Iman said...: Today’s Democrat party is steeped in the ideology of NSDAP. Make no mistake.; 10/18/24, 1:34 PM
Inga said...: “In the 2024 campaign, that line has been crossed. Trump blurs the distinction between illegal immigrants and legal immigrants—the latter including his wife, his late ex-wife, the in-laws of his running mate, and many others. He has said of immigrants, “They’re poisoning the blood of our country” and “They’re destroying the blood of our country.” He has claimed that many have “bad genes.” He has also been more explicit: “They’re not humans; they’re animals”; they are “cold-blooded killers.” He refers more broadly to his opponents—American citizens, some of whom are elected officials—as “the enemy from within … sick people, radical-left lunatics.” Not only do they have no rights; they should be “handled by,” he has said, “if necessary, National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military.”; 10/18/24, 1:38 PM
Krumhorn said...: It's remarkable how easily comments from Cook (and Inga) support the basis for Godwin's Law. Lacking any real substance to his argument in opposition to Trump and characterizing Trump's supporters, he falls into the Nazi/Hitler trope effortlessly as a child would blindly scream during a bug-eyed tantrum....and he self-describes as "rational" in contrast to the rest of us.

I have little doubt he could set up concentration camps, etc., and his followers would support him.

I have little doubt that Cook and his tribe, if he had the power to do so, would happily send Trump supporters to reedukation kamps as so many of his ideological soul mates have done in the past. It's so easy to do when one deems himself to be rational and everyone else needs adjustment.

- Krumhorn; 10/18/24, 2:00 PM
Rusty said...: Well. He certainly doesn't stand with the working class.; 10/18/24, 2:09 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Oh, boy, Robert Cook and Inga will take this as proof you want to kill them.; 10/18/24, 2:21 PM
Drago said...: LLR-democratical and Abacus Boy Rich, P-Inga and unreconstructed Stalinist Robert Cook! What a triumverate of witlessness!; 10/18/24, 2:23 PM
Big Mike said...: The "streams" have never crossed. My sense is that it has been Trump all the way, with the possible exception of a very short-lived bounce for Harris after the convention.; 10/18/24, 2:27 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I did a quick back of the envelope calculation from 2020- Biden would have still won in such a system but with only 278 electoral votes. A district by district method would favor Republicans which is why Democrats will never go for it.; 10/18/24, 2:30 PM
James K said...: I'll trust the prediction markets before Nate's proprietary computer simulations. The participants in those markets have real money on the line and incorporate whatever information they can get from polls and other sources. I presume they even factor in the cheating coming from the D side. They have Trump much higher than 50.2 percent. Sorry Inga and Robert.; 10/18/24, 3:10 PM
Inga said...: “Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.

Others, however, see the bets as an influence campaign designed to fuel social-media buzz for the former president.

Polymarket is investigating the activity in its presidential-election markets with the assistance of outside experts, a person familiar with the matter said.“

WSJ; 10/18/24, 3:20 PM
Jersey Fled said...: Says Nate Silver of Disney/ABC/538; 10/18/24, 3:28 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/18/24, 3:28 PM
Original Mike said...: "If all states were Maine and Nebraska we would die from boredom."

IDK, Maine is nice.; 10/18/24, 3:29 PM
Inga said...: “Polymarket users place bets using stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency for which each coin is worth $1. For each contract purchased—an answer to a yes or no question such as “Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election?”—users get $1 if their bet turns out to be correct, and nothing if they were wrong. They can also sell contracts without waiting for the question to be resolved, allowing them to exit a bet for a profit or a loss.

The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.

Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor who has monitored the activity on Polymarket, said the betting spree appears to be an attempt to generate a sense of momentum for Trump going into Election Day. If Trump loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him, said Cochran, who described himself as a right-of-center voter backing Harris.“; 10/18/24, 3:30 PM
James K said...: Even if that were true about Polymarket, there are other prediction markets showing the same surge toward Trump.; 10/18/24, 3:31 PM
Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...: If being irrationally enamored is the new Hitler Standard, nobody compares to Barack Obama. Especially when you factor in the adoration of our state run media.; 10/18/24, 3:32 PM
Inga said...: “While $30 millon might seem costly, it is sufficient to swing the odds on Polymarket and not a large outlay for a deep-pocketed individual seeking to influence the election, added Cochran, managing partner of the venture-capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures.

“It is by far the most efficient political advertising one can buy,” Cochran said.

The betting spree has echoes of the “Romney Whale,” an unknown trader who placed a flurry of bets on a Mitt Romney victory during the closing weeks of the 2012 election, using Intrade, a now-defunct prediction market. The trader lost nearly $7 million, according to a 2015 paper by a pair of economists from Microsoft and Barnard College. The authors concluded that the bets had characteristics of manipulation, potentially aimed at shaping public perceptions.”

WSJ; 10/18/24, 3:36 PM
Kakistocracy said...: Maine Cabin Masters is a fun DIY show about a construction crew that rehabs older cabins-camps that are in need of repair.; 10/18/24, 3:40 PM
Leland said...: Please show evidence that Biden or Harris campaigned in either Nebraska or Maine. That Harris might get an electoral vote from both locations does not support your silly claim that she has to campaign there. Campaign ads don't really mean a thing, because they put them everywhere. Did the Democrat candidate go to those locations to earn that vote? No.; 10/18/24, 4:34 PM
Jim at said...: the same division that (properly) declared Joe Biden the winner of Arizona in 2000 (sic)

Except they declared him the winner with only 11 percent tallied and it took weeks to determine whether or not he actually won. And it's still disputed.; 10/18/24, 4:36 PM
Jim at said...: Every day that we get closer to Election Day, these comments sections sound more like 1933.

Looks like that rubber room will also be your safe space. You know, with all of us Nazis running around.

Do you realize just how foolish and deranged you sound?; 10/18/24, 4:38 PM
Jim at said...: This comment has been removed by the author.

Maybe if you didn't type (cut and paste) such insane ramblings in the first place, you wouldn't have to remove them later on.; 10/18/24, 4:45 PM
tcrosse said...: I leave that to the Canadian Health System.; 10/18/24, 5:35 PM
The Godfather said...: This is not a "who do you love?" election. It's a "who do you hate/fear less?" election. That was true in the last two Presidential elections, and it's true today. Sure, there were people who LOVED Trump, and there were people who LOVED Hillary or who LOVED Biden. But the main driving factor on BOTH sides was OPPOSITION to the OTHER. This election will not be decided by who LOVES Kamala. No one even knows who she is. But she's NOT TRUMP, so that's why about half the voters will vote for her. About half the voters will vote FOR Trump. And the election will be decided by how many vote AGAINST Trump, as a vote FOR Kamala . Enough of them, and we'll have Pres. Kamala. Live with it. Trump's never been a very appealing candidate to a lot of people.; 10/18/24, 5:43 PM
Paul said...: Nate is whistling Dixie in a grave yard. Trump will win both the popular and the electoral college. And by a landside.; 10/18/24, 5:50 PM
Rusty said...: Polymarket is just one of eight selected odds makers by RCP. The average is 18.4 in favor of Trump.; 10/18/24, 5:53 PM
Hannio said...: Hey, did you know that people actually voted for Hitler? You know who else people are voting for? Trump! OMG!! Trump is Hitler!!!; 10/18/24, 6:15 PM
Inga said...: I removed it from this space because I wanted it to be nested under the correct comment, dummy.; 10/18/24, 6:24 PM
Inga said...: Jim, no one sounds as foolish and deranged as you do, especially when you pretend to be a tough guy.; 10/18/24, 6:27 PM
Inga said...: Also, you might actually learn something if you read them, but that’s too much to expect from you.; 10/18/24, 6:31 PM
Peachy said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 10/18/24, 8:23 PM
Big Mike said...: People voted for Joe Biden, so by the same logic Joe Biden is Hitler too. OMG! Explains a lot. Also explains pushing Joe aside for Harris — no one has voted for her. At least no one sane.; 10/18/24, 10:48 PM
Iman said...: Word on the street is that Canadian realtors have been staffing up. These malcontents should be encouraged to flee to the Land of Trudeau, where unspeakable gimps roam and subservience is the order of the day.; 10/19/24, 5:31 AM
Narayanan said...: puppeteers too do lot of arm waving; 10/19/24, 6:30 AM
Narayanan said...: following on various comments above ...
I am wondering if COViD histrionics were the Deep State attempt to get Trump go Hitlerian nationalist = lockdown with isolation camps etc ...
but Trump seems to have dodged them by letting States decide ??!!!; 10/19/24, 6:45 AM
Narayanan said...: so Nebraska is Barrayar with elected 'counts'; 10/19/24, 6:54 AM
Narayanan said...: has it been mentioned that Soviet Russia advised German communists to vote for Hitler?; 10/19/24, 6:56 AM
Narayanan said...: following on various comments above ...
I am wondering if COViD histrionics were the Deep State attempt to get Trump go Hitlerian nationalist = lockdown with isolation camps etc ...
but Trump seems to have dodged them by letting States decide ??!!!; 10/19/24, 7:02 AM
Narayanan said...: if various AI's were to create a bots to equal 'ballot totals' from last election and simulate 2024 what would be output result show?; 10/19/24, 7:06 AM
TwoAndAHalfCents said...: Biden winning AZ in 2000 explains why we never got to have President Gore.; 10/19/24, 9:28 AM