September 19, 2024

"Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked."

 The NYT reports, just now. Free-access link.

ADDED: 2 interesting highlights:

1. "The share of voters who said they still wanted to learn more about Ms. Harris was nearly identical, both before and after the debate, suggesting that she might have missed an opportunity to address doubts or provide more details to the public....:

2. "[F]ar more voters see [Harris] as too liberal than view Mr. Trump as too conservative.... Mr. Trump took the title as the more 'extreme' candidate, 74 percent versus 46 percent.Yet being extreme was not viewed negatively by many voters. In fact, Mr. Trump won the group of voters who said 'extreme' described him 'somewhat well' by more than 50 percentage points...."

AND: Those 2 points fit together. Do you see how? Harris is trying to look moderate, but that makes people feel they don't know enough. If she's extreme, we're not seeing it so much. Trump is more revealing, so he seems more extreme. People feel they know what he's saying, and a lot of them like it.

105 comments:

Howard (not that Howard) said...

Well, if the ABC whistleblower is correct, "stronger" is doing a lot of work here.

rehajm said...

Holy carp- who knew one biased debate wasn’t the only deciding factor in an election?…and I thought everyone knew Taylor Swift’s endorsement was the decider…

Breezy said...

I don’t think it’s accurate to say “missed opportunity” when she’s deliberately hiding her “values”.

Christopher B said...

Repeating "my values haven't changed" while repudiating positions you apparently held until 7/21/2024 isn't going to address people's doubts about what you stand for.

Todd said...

A stronger debate?!?!?

She did not directly answer a SINGLE question, she did not enlighten anyone on a SINGLE one of HER policy positions. She used a LOT of words to say NOTHING. I [myself] was not surprised at all as she has spent the last 3+ years using a LOT of words to say nothing. The "Kamala" push is much more low-key this go round as in I have not seen a lot of "first woman POTUS, you go girl, hay girls it is OUR time, vote Kamala". There is some but it is not close to the level that we were all subjected to when that other "first" ran. Maybe someone(s) learned their lesson? Doubt it. More likely they understand how just plan unlikeable she is (remind you of anyone else that ran for POTUS?) and are soft peddling it. Can't you just FEELZ the JOY!.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

How sad. They are still trying to spin her horrible performance as a “win” when she did not convert any undecided voters to vote for her. She repelled them with her non-answers. The NYT has no shame.

rehajm said...

I still want a reckoning the claim No topics or questions have been shared with the campaigns. There’s too many weasel words, too much wiggle room…

Shouting Thomas said...

If not for the psy-ops and vote fraud, I think Trump would win all 50 states.

gilbar said...

prices are much higher now, what will your admin do about inflation?
"Well, i grew up in a middle class home* so i neither know nor care about inflation"

middle class home* tenured professor, living in tony toronto

gilbar said...

if people hadn't been lied to about the notebook from hell.. Trump would still be President

Dave Begley said...

Extremism in service of making America great again is no vice.

Bob Boyd said...

"she might have missed an opportunity to address doubts or provide more details to the public...."
The Harris campaign didn't miss the opportunity, they passed on it. In fact, I think their biggest fear that night was that Kamala would reveal too much, both personally and policy-wise.
Candidates always see the debate as a hazard and an opportunity, but in this case, Harris left the impression that she viewed it as almost purely a hazard. It was clear that her goal was to avoid policy specifics and not appear out of her depth or intimidated. It was equally clear the moderators were helping her. So much so that many viewers said the debate was 3 against one. That kind of thing does not win converts or reassure the uncertain. It was counter to the goal of not appearing out of her depth or intimidated.
Harris was well prepared and exceeded low expectations. There was no catastrophe, but no one open-minded was impressed with her either. Nor did they have their legitimate doubts about her assuaged.

Gerda Sprinchorn said...

Reminder: the prediction and betting markets still show the race as close to a tossup. The average odds are currently at 54%/45% Harris/Trump.

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

Meade said...

Barry Goldwater was right

narciso said...

Lol

RideSpaceMountain said...

Well, you see, she was born in a middle class household....

Gusty Winds said...

If at this point you don't know what Kamala Harris is all about, you haven't been paying attention for years. The average American is tuned out and clueless.

narciso said...

No it didnt work back to the acme toolkit

Gusty Winds said...

The ONLY question that remains is whether or not the absentee Democrat voter fraud is as strong as it was during COVID. Without COVID, perhaps it's not, and that might be why we've seen two assassination attempts (so far).

If the vote is clean, Trump wins like he did in 2020. It's just a matter if they can cheat enough to steal it.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Very interesting the affidavit was signed and notarized the day BEFORE the debate and revealed things the rest of us would not learn until seeing the actual debate. Details like her smaller podium (making her appear larger than life), the way fact-checking would be imposed on him but not her, the restriction from any questions about her time as CA AG or San Francisco AG and any mention of Joe Biden's mental fitness. Also ABC issued a non-denial denial only claiming they did not share the actual questions with her ahead of time. The largest shareholder in Disney now wants answers from Bob Iger about this blatant election interference.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Oh yeah, and the revelation that there would be a split screen where she could mug for the camera while he talked, and that his camera angle and lighting would be high and unflattering while her lighting would be awesome. Everything listed in the premonitionary affidavit happened during the "debate."

Gee what are the odds?

Jamie said...

But she's unburdened by what has been!

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

True

Oso Negro said...

America is yearning to elect a vaginate quasi-negro airhead. I can't wait to see the Democrat billionaires struggle to hide their capital gains.

narciso said...

No they arent specially this nexus 3 model

Jamie said...

I didn't mind the scaled podia - they removed a distraction that we know could have worked in Trump's favor and I think that's appropriate (it's well known that taller people appear to have an advantage in seeking high positions, but height is irrelevant to their ability in most respects - a small female head of state dealing with a male-chauvinistic head of state may be an exception, though I don't recall that it stopped the Iron Lady back in the '80s). And we could have expected the split screen, as that was a feature in the Trump-Biden debate. And no question asked was surprising. Trump simply lost on style. (He avoided answering questions too, though maybe it's more accurate to say that he tried to turn the topics to questions he wanted to address rather than some of the questions he was asked. This is standard politics AND standard Trump, it seems to me.)

But the off-limits areas of questioning, if true, are damning. It still seems to me that THE most important non-policy question Harris should be pressed to answer is, "What did you know about Pres. Biden cognitive condition before the debate?"

Of course, there is no possible answer to that question that would redound to Harris's benefit. Either she didn't know nuthin', in which case she was the Barbie VP with no real influence or authority in the supposed "co-presidency," or she knew what was obvious to so many of us, in which case she was involved in a conspiracy to describe not just the American people but the entire world about where American decisions were emanating from.

Jamie said...

[eye roll] "to deceive," not "to describe."

Iman said...

The lady has a creepy barfly air about her. Does not have the capacity or the chops to be POTUS… not even close.

RideSpaceMountain said...

Nexus 3? Harris thinks she's a Nexus 6! Her Voight-Kampff performance suggests otherwise.

Leland said...

It has been a week, and they are still talking up the debate, because Harris has given the media nothing else since then. Meanwhile, they also don't want to talk about the latest Harris supporter attempting to assassinate Trump.

Howard said...

Let's debate the advantages to our favorite political figure based on the least accurate polling numbers. Because that's what the algorithm wants.

Dixcus said...

What are the names of the people who will be COUNTING the votes? What political party do they belong to? Which candidate have they been donating to?

Isn't it interesting that the most important aspect of our elections are the things that the media makes GOD DAMN SURE you don't know.

Until we address the obvious, in-your-face, board up the windows CHEATING, our elections are a farce and I have zero intention of following the orders of whoever they install.

And they'd better get the razor wire back out too. People are not going to be bringing their cell phones to Washington DC this time.

Dixcus said...

Yeah, that's the way bookies operate. Make sure bets are equal on both sides. Get 10% from all winners.

Dixcus said...

The media are only too willing to not want to talk to Kamala Harris because every time they do she loses votes.

tim maguire said...

People feel like they know what they're getting with Trump. Even if you don't like it, there's still a "devil you know" aspect to him (the fact that he was president and did a perfectly serviceable job of it counts for a lot).

Harris will say whatever she thinks will be popular, which is ok if she'll do whatever she thinks is popular. But if, as many no doubt suspect, her "moderate" shift is a Trojan horse, then there's nothing she can say to make you feel better about her except the unpalatable truth.

Dixcus said...

Hillary Clinton was out this week (suddenly) chastising the press for not presenting a "narrative" that Trump is "dangerous" and "must be stopped." She's obviously still trying to get Trump murdered.

Would she be doing that if Kamala was ahead?

Dixcus said...

The only negro she has in her is Willie Brown's emanations.

Maynard said...

C'mon folks. Election debates are not really debates. They are (and have been after Nixon-Kennedy) campaign ads sponsored and managed by the Democrat media.

It is silly to talk about who won.

Big Mike said...

Her values haven’t changed, if by “values” you mean wanting the title of “President of the United States.” She wants the deference, she wants the toadying directed her way, she wants a 747 for her personal jet, and she wants to hear the band play “Hail to the Chief” when she enters the room. What she does not want is to have to do the job, or to have to work for the job, or the responsibilities that come with the job.

Witness said...

competing with that guy for people who want extremism would be a mug's game

RideSpaceMountain said...

Harris as SF District Attorney was just captured on video from 2007 saying, "We're going to require responsible behaviors among everybody in the community, and just because you legally possess a gun in the sanctity of your locked home doesn't mean that we're not going to walk into that home and check to see if you're being responsible and safe in the way you conduct your affairs."

"Her values have not changed". Believe her.

roger said...

" far more voters see Harris as too liberal than view Mr Trump as too conservative....

I don't know what you're talking about. First let's define the lazy media labels: liberal, conservative.

Narayanan said...

is 'extreme' the right word or is it 'consistent'

roger said...

At which point we will dismiss such foolish terms as nothing more than blunt objects with which to bludgeon our opponents.

DINKY DAU 45 said...

She's been out 6 weeks he's been out 9 years what the he'll do you expect!

Narayanan said...

""announcing sale on pagers!!! Trump branded!!!""

Big Mike said...

Harris and her handlers seem to be trying to run a playbook based on what worked for Joe Biden four years ago (and, yes, I am well aware that it only worked because of ballot box stuffing in a few selected counties). But whereas it was plausible the Joe Biden might govern from the center, it is not at all plausible that Harris has centrist instincts. It is not that easy to hook Americans the same way twice.

Big Mike said...

Harris and her handlers seem to be trying to run a playbook based on what worked for Joe Biden four years ago (and, yes, I am well aware that it only worked because of ballot box stuffing in a few selected counties). But whereas it was plausible the Joe Biden might govern from the center, it is not at all plausible that Harris has centrist instincts. It is not that easy to hook Americans the same way twice.

Big Mike said...

She’s been one heartbeat from a very old man from being the 47th Predident of the United States. Why is it unreasonable for her to be better prepared?

Lazarus said...

There was a suspicion that Harris wouldn't be able to put two sentences together without breaking down into laughter. She was able to do that. She was able to put a lot of sentences together without abrupt discontinuities. That made her look more polished than Trump, but what was she really saying? How many of those sentences answered the questions? How much real substance was there in her remarks? How much of what she said addressed the real problems that people are facing?

Trump missed some openings and opportunities for rebuttal that a more experienced debater would have taken advantage of, and that was very noticeable. Harris just avoided answering questions. Maybe she couldn't help it. Her preparation involved learning a prepared spiel. She may have had trouble deviating from her pre-prepared responses.

Peachy said...

Trump is a poor debater. Refuses to prepare. Even tho- all the subjects are his to own. Doesn't change the fact that the left are lying liars who lie. The left are destroying our nation.
Kamala has the media in her corner... acting as a prop and a pimp.

narciso said...

You can say that again

Kakistocracy said...

Let’s entertain the following for a moment: for the sake of discussion, let’s assume Trump loses the election. I’m curious to know what would happen to the ardent Trump supporters… is there anyone else to support with such fervor? Will they have a crisis of identity? What if the GOP ‘normalizes’ after he goes away from the political arena? What then?

Freder Frederson said...

If you are complaining about Harris not "directly answer[ing] a single question", the exact same thing could be said about Trump.

Peachy said...

100%

Peachy said...

Most of Kamala's past radical left stances are being washed clean from the American mind.
Smart people know better.

Yancey Ward said...

A better question, Bich- if Trump wins will you have the integrity to show up here in these threads?

Freder Frederson said...

middle class home* tenured professor, living in tony toronto

I don't know where you learned that being a "tenured professor" makes someone rich. Middle to Upper Middle class is a perfectly apt description.

As for "tony toronto". Yes, Toronto has a high cost of living, but is nowhere near the cost of living in NYC, San Francisco, L.A., or Seattle.

Yancey Ward said...

One of Harris' big problems is that she is on record espousing and supporting far left policies- there is simply no reasonable and plausible way for her to occupy the political center. Trump started in that center 9 years ago and is still there.

Freder Frederson said...

That is not the least bit amusing.

planetgeo said...

What actions that Trump took as President for 4 years can legitimately be classified as "extreme" or "exactly like Hitler"? I keep waiting to see a long list of actual evidence rather than just accusations from our leftist commenters and so far, no list.

Kakistocracy said...

Vance called Trump — the American Hitler 🤔

Ann Althouse said...

If both your parents are professors at Berkeley — in economics/medicine, high paying fields — should you really be stressing how "middle class" you are? I would think ordinary people would think you are quite affluent. It seems almost insulting to people who are struggling economically. Maybe "upper middle class." If you're upper middle class, I don't think you go around stressing how "middle class" you are.

I say that as someone who grew up middle class. My mother would assert that we were "middle middle class," that is, we'd never say were were "lower middle class" or "upper middle class." Both terms did not apply.

Peachy said...

and now he is his VP. And?
Kamala Harris has said she believes women who have accused former Vice President Joe Biden of various offenses, ranging from inappropriate touching to rape.

Yancey Ward said...

I grew up in an area of the country where a majority of the population was below poverty level income. My parents both worked hard, however, so my family was upper class by comparison to our environment but by country standards we were just middle to lower middle class.

tim maguire said...

The average American doesn't obsess about politics all day. If you don't obsess about politics all day, then you probably have little notion of what Kamala Harris stands for.

tim maguire said...

But is that a value? Or is it something that would have been popular in 2007 San Francisco?

RideSpaceMountain said...

Both.

fairmarketvalue said...

Well, those multiple morning vodka tonics do take their toll.

loudogblog said...

"People feel they know what he's saying, and a lot of them like it."

The Devil you know vs the Devil you don't know. One of the last things that people want in the supreme executive is uncertainty.

gilbar said...

Rich asked:
, let’s assume Trump loses the election. I’m curious to know what would happen to the ardent Trump supporters

i presume, that we will all end up in gulags

Butkus51 said...

I was born in a middle class family and her debate sucked.

Looking forward to grocery stores cutting their food aisles in half. Cant wait til all those billionaires sell assets to pay the unrealized gains taxes.

That wont effect the peasants at all.

Not one bit.

Shout out to the Useful idiot and we all know her name.

fairmarketvalue said...

Dinky, she's been at it 4 years! That should suffice not to give her a pass for her evident laziness and unpreparedness. Please go back to your nap.

RideSpaceMountain said...

It is of a muchness. I think the vast majority of people have no idea where the boundaries between underclass/poor, lower, middle, and upper middle class are. The official government poverty level is certainly no help. There are individuals and families making close to $500k/year that say they're underwater, and I doubt that anyone would say that isn't in the top 2nd or 3rd percentile for the USA.

Harris is a Kamalamorph. She will be whatever she thinks the people she's pandering to need her to be. The people she's pandering to don't care either. They're not insulted, just too stupid to recognize a changeling when confronted with one.

Dogma and Pony Show said...

I imagine there are a fair number of people who aren't fans of Trump but who are coming over to his side because of all the unfair tactics that have been deployed against him and the mettle he has shown by standing up against the people and institutions that are trying to destroy him. By contrast, KH's own supporters make no secret of the fact they regard her as too fragile and inept to be permitted to speak in public under circumstances that aren't completely scripted. I don't think there are enough hardcore socialists and single-issue pro-abortionists to elect a candidate as weak as her over a strong and fearless personality like DJT, especially where his position on the issues happen to align much more closely to those of the majority of voters.

fairmarketvalue said...

Bich, (I really like that) let's imagine how much cash from your trolling you will receive from the dems when Kamala ding dong crashes and burns.

fairmarketvalue said...

Nor will you ever see one.

Michael K said...

Field Marshal Freder ignores the fact that Trump has been answering such questions for 9 years.

fairmarketvalue said...

Dogma, I agree with you, but another aspect of Harris candidacy that I believe is turning people off is the obvious role of the legacy media acting as her praetorian guard. They dissemble, rationalize and outright lie in brazen fashion, without any pretense of cruel neutrality, in propping up her campaign. The media's "thumb on the scale" behavior serves to underscore and confirm her vapidity, incompetence and unlikableness.

Dogma and Pony Show said...

I don't think people really care how rich or poor a candidate was growing up. In Kamala's case, the only thing really insulting about calling herself middle class is that she's saying it in response to legitimate, good faith questions about what specific things she'd do as president. People know when they're being bull-shitted and they generally don't like it.

Michael K said...

Feeder is about to write a song about the poor little black girl riding the bus to her segregated school.

Michael K said...

Auto correct gave us"Feeder" but it is pretty close.

Iman said...

Eat teh cat, eat eat teh cat, rich

Dogma and Pony Show said...

I agree. I don't think it ultimately hurts Trump for ABC News to work so hard to stack the deck against him at the debate -- given how OBVIOUS they were in doing it. It just ends up reinforcing the message that KH is too weak to win without the media's active assistance.

I'll say this for Hillary: Although she was a charmless, power-hungry shrew who did not exhibit good judgment even on those rare occasions she attempted to do the right thing on behalf of the country, it never occurred to me that she lacked the personal strength and toughness to be president. KH is clearly not up to snuff in that regard, and the harder the media and others work to conceal her inadequacies, the more it shows.

Michael K said...

The problem is, as with all Democrats, is the role of fraud and the eagerness
of the Media to hide it.

Freder Frederson said...

And lying the entire time.

Paul said...

"Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked."

Anytime there is a 'but' in the sentence it means anything said before that is horseshit...

Rocco said...

The race remains deadlocked.

Is it deadlocked between the people who see her as Indian- and Jamaican-American and those who see her as Black?

Rabel said...

"Results are among likely voters who watched or HEARD ABOUT the debate."

Mission accomplished.

Bruce Hayden said...

“That is not the least bit amusing.”

Giving away that, after all these years here, you are still humor impaired.

Rocco said...

So not a poor black child.

Michael K said...

Which is why the moderators were not allowed to bring up her history in CA.

rehajm said...

So there’s claim ABC ‘News’ dude’s rating are down 15% since the farce…er, debate. That’s not a strong debate showing by ABC. Time to go on The View to patch things up…

Jim at said...

Vance called Trump — the American Hitler

And - again - is he still calling him that? No? Then what's your point?

Real American said...

Trump has an extreme personality, but his political views are rather moderate on most contentious subjects. Harris holds extremist political views and comes across as a dolt who isn't in charge of her own campaign.

Jamie said...

Yes, Toronto has a high cost of living, but is nowhere near the cost of living in NYC, San Francisco, L.A., or Seattle.

That's your standard? Toronto isn't as expensive as four of the most expensive cities in the New World?

The point is that her "response" to a question about how she would control inflation has so far been one of two things: "I was born a poor black child " (yes, yes, a middle class black child) and "Evil price gougers beware! We're gunning for you, in a gun-free fashion except that I am as everyone has long known a proud gun owner and defender of the Second Amendment!" Nothing about fiscal policy, nothing about regulation and it's contribution to high prices, nothing about trade agreements...

All of which are answers Trump has given and did already follow through on in his first term. Your response above about Trump lying all the time is a functional sibling of Dr. Jill's embarrassingly DelCo "He laaawwwiiiiiieeees!" after the debate.

P.S. It's not that Trump is a deficit hawk, more the pity. But he's not an MMT enthusiast, a neo-Marxist, or a fiscal ignoramus, at least.

Kakistocracy said...

There are a couple of things that are not in the polls, which is if you want to be closing well down the stretch, you want to have a lot of money and you want to have a lot of organization. And which campaign has that? It's Harris' campaign.

Everyone is looking to see if this slight improvement that she's had since the debate is tied to her debate performance. Maybe. But it could be the fact that she's just drowning Trump in ads and people are getting a ton of exposure to Harris that they've never gotten before. And that will continue from now and through November.

So it's really impossible to know. What we do know is that she has more money, she has more on the ground operations. There probably will not be another debate.

Look at the polls — Trump's at 46, 46, 47, 48, 46. It's like Trump is just capped. And really, Harris just can grow. And that's where the money comes in.

If you can spend a lot of money advertising and so on and so forth, you can reach those undecided voters.

boatbuilder said...

And Harris is just getting started.

Mason G said...

"And - again - is he still calling him that? No? Then what's your point?"

That's easy. His point is- once he's formed an opinion (or more likely, someone else has provided him with one), he's unable to change it even if newly-received information makes holding it make him look like an ass.

Michael K said...

Howard, you are getting more and more obscure in your comments. Take your meds!

Michael K said...

Vote fraud is expensive. I guess that is your message.

Static Ping said...

The problem is Kamala is she incapable of public speaking except in very controlled circumstances, and even then she struggles. Even if she had established positions, she is not capable of actually communicating them intelligently or even coherently. This actually works "well" currently as she keeps pretending to hold positions that are obviously phony.

That's why the Democrats and the media are so desperate to try to make Trump the incumbent despite Kamala being the seated VP. When things are going badly, the voters want to know what you would do differently. There's no real reason to believe Kamala would do anything differently except worse, so they are trying to blame Trump for her administration's blunders.

Static Ping said...

The basic problem with the polls is, with a few exceptions, they were very wrong in 2016 and also very wrong in 2020 though not to the same extreme, to the point that it became a serious question if they were actually useful. Furthermore, they were almost always skewed in favor of the Democrat, almost always underestimating Trump's support significantly. If Trump is at 48%, what's the real number? 48%? 50%? 52%? 55%? Some of those polls you trust were off by 7% or worse. I do not have any confidence that they solved their problems, and for that matter I am not sure that they really want to solve their problems.

Josephbleau said...

My Prediction! Kamalla will appear next week with a pillow under her blouse and claim she is pregnant and carrying a new black baby for the future.

Campaign aides said they knew it would be discovered, but not until after the election, so it will have worked, and there is nothing anyone can do about her lie.

John Marzan said...

Some polls show Trump is seen as the candidate of change. He's also done enough interviews (and been President) so that you know what you're going to get. You may not like it, but you know it.

Change & Certainty. Rare combo.

Kamala's much harder to nail down, and isn't clarifying things much with press appearances.

Status quo & Uncertainty?

https://x.com/kausmickey/status/1836923344681054219