Althouse: "Two recent polls show President Biden and former president Donald Trump tied in Virginia, a surprising finding for a blue-trending state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020..."

June 8, 2024

"Two recent polls show President Biden and former president Donald Trump tied in Virginia, a surprising finding for a blue-trending state that Biden won by 10 points in 2020..."

"... and that independent analysts still see as a stretch for the presumptive GOP nominee.... 'Whether the numbers are fully accurate or not, you do get a general indication of what’s happening. … Things are not going well for Joe Biden. They’re just not,' [said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist and self-described polling skeptic].... Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for Trump’s campaign [said] 'Joe Biden is so weak, and Democrats are in such disarray, that not only is President Trump dominating in every traditional battleground state, but longtime blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey are now in play.... President Trump is on offense with a winning message and growing his movement every single day. Joe Biden’s campaign should be terrified.'"

WaPo's reporter on Virginia, Laura Vozzella, strains to cheer readers up in "Virginia still seen as stretch for Trump despite two tied polls with Biden/While some analysts say they have trouble squaring those polls with other surveys showing a tight race nationwide, they still see potential warning signs for Biden."

46 comments:

Kevin said...: Don’t worry, these are only “potential warning signs”.

Had these been actual warning signs you would have been directed to a Trump-raid shelter near you.; 6/8/24, 6:26 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: The 2020 VA election was completely sabotaged and rigged, with very little effort to hide it.

The Dems aren’t even attempting to conceal the sabotage and rigging of the 2024 election.

Why should I argue over the details of a fake election?; 6/8/24, 6:29 AM
stlcdr said...: Since democrats are always talking about republicans hidden messages in things (typically, racist, mysogynist, and so on), and there’s a lot of projection on the left, should we take this to mean they are sending the message that they will need to cheat harder?; 6/8/24, 6:41 AM
tim maguire said...: A couple weeks ago, it was a big deal that a poll showed Trump trailing New York by 9. The last 2 had him trailing by 7, and then by 6 points. If the trend continues, by the end of June, we’ll be reading this same story, but about New York.

The walls holding the black community inside the Democratic plantation are cracking. If it hits a tipping point, even their most aggressive vote-stealing techniques won’t save them.; 6/8/24, 6:41 AM
Mary Beth said...: For the last couple of days pro-Biden X accounts have been mentioning, but not linking to, a poll that they say shows him "surging" ahead. One had a screenshot, but again, not a link, to a Newsweek article that says "Joe Biden Suddenly Leads Donald Trump in Multiple Battleground States".

The Newsweek article told me who had done the poll the other accounts were relying on, so I looked up the poll results (linked above). I can see why they didn't link it. It's not as rosy (for Biden) as they are trying to make out. Almost everything I see coming from the Biden and Biden-favoring accounts are lies and deceptions. Don't they have anything that's just plain, factually good to say about the man and this presidential term?; 6/8/24, 6:41 AM
Wilbur said...: I still believe this is groundwork being laid to replace Biden and Harris as the candidates. Should be an interesting convention.; 6/8/24, 6:48 AM
Hari said...: "[S]ome analysts say they have trouble squaring those polls with other surveys showing a tight race nationwide."

(1) Why are some analysts even trying to square the Virgina race with the nationwide race?
(2) Doesn't a tied poll in Virgina square perfectly with a tight race nationwide?; 6/8/24, 6:48 AM
R C Belaire said...: Grain of salt required. A large grain of salt.; 6/8/24, 6:48 AM
Quaestor said...: A potential warning sign?

A dictionary and a Strunk & White -- buy 'em, read 'em.; 6/8/24, 6:57 AM
Christopher B said...: Hari said...
(2) Doesn't a tied poll in Virginia square perfectly with a tight race nationwide?

Virginia hasn't been won by a Republican Presidential Candidate since W in 2004.
It hasn't had a Republican Senator since 2008.
The Governorship is more mixed but Democrats have held that office for sixteen years since 2001, Republicans only 7.; 6/8/24, 7:04 AM
Louise B said...: Can Biden and Harris be replaced at the convention and still have a Democrat candidate on the ballot in Ohio? I have read their convention proclaiming the party’s candidates occurs after Ohio’s deadline filing date. How does a candidate get on the ballot after the deadline? Remember no one is above the law—including Biden/Harris.; 6/8/24, 7:09 AM
Mr. Forward said...: The most rabid Trump Haters I know all come up with the same panicked line. "They are both too old!"
Usually followed by "I don't want to talk politics."

If they haven't scurried off by then I reply "If I was a Democrat I wouldn't want to talk politics either".; 6/8/24, 7:12 AM
Iman said...: The Democrats got nothin’.; 6/8/24, 7:17 AM
Iman said...: They’ve created a new cocktail in honor of P0TATUS Biden’s historic visit to Normandy on the 80th anniversary:

“Poop on the Beach”.; 6/8/24, 7:20 AM
Mr Wibble said...: Can Biden and Harris be replaced at the convention and still have a Democrat candidate on the ballot in Ohio? I have read their convention proclaiming the party’s candidates occurs after Ohio’s deadline filing date. How does a candidate get on the ballot after the deadline? Remember no one is above the law—including Biden/Harris.

Trump won Ohio twice, so losing Ohio isn't likely to be the issue for Dems. And replacing the candidate at the last minute would give them an opening for a lawsuit to challenge Ohio's law regarding ballot access.; 6/8/24, 7:26 AM
Wince said...: I, for one, like the complacency of these “don’t panic…yet” columns.; 6/8/24, 7:35 AM
mindnumbrobot said...: Put me in the skeptical column. It's only June.; 6/8/24, 7:42 AM
Kevin said...: I have read their convention proclaiming the party’s candidates occurs after Ohio’s deadline filing date.

To comply with Ohio law the delegates are holding the vote remotely before the convention.; 6/8/24, 7:52 AM
Christopher B said...: @Louise B

What Mr Wibble said, plus remember that we're not really voting for a Presidential candidate but a slate of Electors who will vote for President. This is a bit worthy of aluminium headgear but Biden could conceivably announce his resignation "for health reasons" effective Inauguration Day after winning the election and be replaced via the Electoral College with Harris still as VP. It might require challenges to 'faithless elector' laws but I suspect they would be called moot because of his resignation, or ruled unconstitutional in that narrow instance.; 6/8/24, 7:52 AM
gilbar said...: Biden will TRAGICALLY die by the 1st night of the convention
Probably ON the 1st night.. Possibly ON tv.

There is NO WAY that the democrats are going to let that loser drag them all down..
There is NO WAY that Biden will quit.. He will say: "Over My Dead Body".. see start of this post; 6/8/24, 8:12 AM
Yancey Ward said...: "(1) Why are some analysts even trying to square the Virgina race with the nationwide race?"
"(2) Doesn't a tied poll in Virgina square perfectly with a tight race nationwide?"

If in November Biden wins Virginia by, let's say, 1%, then the national vote is likely to be won by Trump and Trump is likely to win 320+ electoral votes. If Biden wins Virginia by 5%, then he will win the national vote by 1 to 2% but still lose the electoral college much like Hillary did in 2016. In short, Virginia leans Democrat by about 5-7% these days, but your point is right- Virginia tied shows a national race that is separated by less than the margin of error bars, but based on 2020, Biden needs to win the national vote by 4%+ to win the electoral college.

All of these recent polls, including the ones referenced above by other commenters in other states, show that the Democrats' hold on black and hispanic voters might be loosening enough to make it possible for Trump to win the popular vote in addition to winning the electoral college.

On election night it will be worthwhile to, early in the evening, watching the returns from Louisville, Kentucky and Indianapolis, Indiana and compare them to the same counties in 2020 and 2016- it will be an early read on the election itself.; 6/8/24, 8:15 AM
Marcus Bressler said...: Call me cynical, but I seen the Legacy Media spinning the polls this way:
All spring and summer, Trump gains or goes ahead of Biden in the polling. Then, after the conventions, Biden has the usual uptick and the media screams,"Biden Is Ready to Trump on (as the President did with Corn Pop) as He Surges in Polling. Of course, there will be no mention of DJT's bump after the convention, other than "White Supremacy Rears Its Ugly Head after Republican Convention"; 6/8/24, 8:24 AM
Aggie said...: Getting those ol' Red Wave vibes, you know what I mean? It'll be here any day, now....; 6/8/24, 8:42 AM
Political Junkie said...: Yancey Ward at 8:15 is spot on.
While I think the likelihood of the following is less than 5%, seems like there could be a scenario where DJT wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college.
Imagine 2004 where Kerry won Ohio. Kerry would have been be pres. Bush improved in blue states like NY, NJ, CT, IL, HI but still lost them.; 6/8/24, 9:02 AM
Mr. Majestyk said...: Tied in Virginia? That's nothing a few late-night ballot dumps can't fix.; 6/8/24, 9:03 AM
John henry said...: But, but but he's not spending money on advertising!

Quelle horror!

John Henry; 6/8/24, 9:10 AM
Skeptical Voter said...: WaPoo writer wakes up from a Rip Van Winkle snooze, looks out the door in Virginia and sees something "surprising". Wake up and smell the coffee honey.; 6/8/24, 9:33 AM
TickTock said...: What's the margin of fraud in Virginia. Can Democrats produces 10% more votes from retirement communities? How closely will the Republicans watch the voting process? Will there be last minute waivers to state laws allowing last minute updates to voting machine software.? Will judges intervene? Inquiring minds want to know.; 6/8/24, 9:42 AM
Big Mike said...: [Sigh]. People don’t grasp how Virginia differs from most states. If one gets sufficiently far away from the District of Columbia then Virginia looks like a conventional red state with a couple deep blue splotches around Richmond, Charlottesville (University of Virginia), and the complex of urban areas (Norfolk, Hampton Roads, and Virginia Beach) in the southeastern corner of the state. Virginia’s “tail” in the southwestern corner of the state is almost incandescent red because it reaches into Appalachia, so it is red for much the same reason that the entire state of West Virginia is red.

But, according to the US Office of Personnel Management (www.opm.gov) the federal government employs approximately 1,870,000 workers nationwide (counting civilian employees of the Department of Defense but not uniformed military). Over 144,000 of these federal workers (or 7.7%) live in Virginia, most of them in the counties and cities near DC: Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, Spotsylvania and the cities of Falls Church and Alexandria. That’s a huge block of voters, and it’s way bigger than that because the 144.000 does not include spouses, nor does it include the people who indirectly draw a paycheck from the government by working for a federal contractor such as Lockheed Martin or General Dynamics or Northrop Grumman. There are firms like TASC and MITRE whose entire business revolves around advising government agencies behind the scenes. These people are terrified (justifiably, I hope) that Trump will kick over their rice bowls or, worse yet, make them actually work for a living.

So it’s good that for Trump that polls show him tied, but that block of direct and indirect federal workers will be hard to overcome.; 6/8/24, 9:48 AM
Jersey Fled said...: There aren’t any real big Virginia cities to overcome even a modest Trump advantage in the actual vote. No Philadelphias or Detriots that can be counted on to turn out 125% of the voting age population.; 6/8/24, 10:02 AM
Yancey Ward said...: "What's the margin of fraud in Virginia. Can Democrats produces 10% more votes from retirement communities?"

The cemeteries are deep blue.; 6/8/24, 10:29 AM
Kathryn51 said...: The real impact of these close polls is that Biden will need to spend significantly more resources than planned in those pale blue states.

I haven't dived deeply into all of the numbers, but I believe that most of the recent polls are RV's (registered voters) and that Biden is performing a bit better with the LVs (likely) - but "likely" is not self-identified, it's based on prior voting habits - which means it doesn't capture many Hispanics and whites who are cynical about politics. If Trump brings enough of these disaffected voters to the polls, then that's the real game-changer.; 6/8/24, 11:15 AM
Unknown said...: @Big Mike

You're absolutely right. That jab in the article- "longtime blue states" grouping Virginia with New Jersey and Minnesota? That's either delusional or deliberately misleading.

I moved in Richmond, Virginia in 2007 when it had just shifted to be a purple state; it was clear to all the residents that NoVa was the only reason the state was purple and leaning blue, the rest of the state was very red and had mostly contempt for NoVa. Non-residents don't understand the politics of the state-wide races in VA- the son of a beloved former governor won a senate seat not because he's a democrat, but because everyone loved his dad. To claim that makes it a "longtime blue state" is dumb.

The federal employee population growth in NoVa is imo what helped shift it to be reliably blue in the past decade.; 6/8/24, 11:50 AM
mccullough said...: Virginia is a blue state like Colorado.

The GOP lost it four consecutive presidential elections.

Northern Virginia has 3/8 of the state’s population.

It’s a win for Trump if Biden has to campaign and spend money there. Same with Minnesota.

Trump’s best chance to win the state is to lay low there.; 6/8/24, 12:32 PM
Dr Weevil said...: Twenty-eight comments so far, and no one has mentioned governor Glenn Youngkin? I read at the time that he beat the margin of fraud in 2021 (Virginia has odd-year elections) by spending a lot of time, effort, and money lining up poll-watchers and lawyers so that NoVA actually turned in honest numbers for a change. He's still governor, so with him and his Lieutenant Governor and (most important) Attorney General keeping an eye on things, Trump will have a much better chance than last time around. The fact that the Youngkin team will be in charge for more than year after this November means they'll have plenty of time to prosecute any attempts to fix the election in Virginia. Trump's chances of winning Virginia are quite good.; 6/8/24, 12:36 PM
Dr Weevil said...: Oops, 34 comments before mine.

And that 16:7 ratio of gubernatorial control (Christopher B, 7:04am) would likely have been a 12:11 ratio if Jack Smith had not indicted outgoing governor Bob McDonnell on utterly fraudulent charges (overturned 9-0 by the Supreme Court), causing his Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to lose the 2013 gubernatorial election by only 2.5% (with 6.5% for the Libertarians).; 6/8/24, 12:44 PM
JK Brown said...: Will Trump leave Delaware for Biden as Reagan did with Minnesota and Mondale in '84?

Can you imagine the despair on election night if Trump were to have such a sweep? How delightful. And doubly delightful if sensing the shift the urban corpses don't tolerate the Democrat/Hamas/Antifa rioters.; 6/8/24, 12:52 PM
Michael K said...: I tend to agree that Virginia is a stretch for Trump. It's where the Deep State lives.; 6/8/24, 1:34 PM
Joe Bar said...: Blogger Dr Weevil said...
"Twenty-eight comments so far, and no one has mentioned governor Glenn Youngkin? I read at the time that he beat the margin of fraud in 2021 (Virginia has odd-year elections) by spending a lot of time, effort, and money lining up poll-watchers and lawyers so that NoVA actually turned in honest numbers for a change."

I live in rural VA, and Yougkin had the perfect candidate to run against: A carpetbagger who made stupid mistakes. I am not convinced his organization can pull this off, again.; 6/8/24, 1:49 PM
Ralph L said...: Back in the 70s, Messrs. Harris and Parris alternated occupancy of the Fairfax Co. US House seat. I believe Parris was the Republican. Like most of America, the Commonwealth is now largely divided into big metro areas versus everyone else. Odd how that happened.; 6/8/24, 1:55 PM
Jersey Fled said...: Every once in awhile NJ has a moment of clarity and votes for the Republican. I don’t think this is one of those times.; 6/8/24, 2:36 PM
Spiros Pappas said...: According to Pew Research, only 17% of Biden's 2020 voters voted in person. 87% of Biden's vote was mail in ballots. That is odd but it's also a guarantee that Biden will win in 2024.; 6/8/24, 8:13 PM
DINKY DAU 45 said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; 6/8/24, 8:26 PM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: Shouting Thomas is 100% correct.

If the left were really afraid that Biden will lose -they would pull him now.

they are not afraid. The corrupt mob left own the vote cheat machine.; 6/9/24, 8:35 AM
Tina Trent said...: HQ of Make the Road, the largest illegal immigrant racket in America.

People are noticing.; 11/18/24, 10:15 AM
Tina Trent said...: No. The black vote will remain mostly tethered to the Democrats. It’s the massive and diverse legal Hispanic vote that is going for Trump. Look at the numbers.; 11/18/24, 10:18 AM