President Biden cannot statistically win this election. Our campaign’s Director of Content, Jonathan Hiller, explains why.#rfkjr #kennedy24 #kennedyshanahan24 pic.twitter.com/Py2emqkM7l
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) May 1, 2024
May 1, 2024
"President Biden cannot statistically win this election. Our campaign’s Director of Content, Jonathan Hiller, explains why."
Tweets RFK Jr., with this video:
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My initial response when watching that video was, "Shanahan who's that? Oh yeah that's right."
I think it is a very, very, very unlikely longshot but I could imagine a scenario where Kennedy slowly picks up support until he reaches a certain critical mass where he then becomes an actual possibility in enough people's minds that there is a snowballing effect and he get lots of support. While I consider this very unlikely, it could happen. I think this is more likely to occur with Kennedy picking up Biden voters rather than Trump voters. Because while there are tens of millions of people absolutely enthusiastic about Trump, any enthusiasm, if you can call it that, on the Biden side seems more akin to desire not to see Trump rather than four more years of Biden. For that same reason I think this video is more likely to drive disaffected potential Biden voters to Kennedy rather than the alternative. Also the tone of the video feels more suited to Left-wing progressive or semi-progressive aesthetics.
Trump is not running against RFK. Wait until there are some mean tweets and poll again.
I appreciate RFK's confidence, but his chance of beating Trump head to head after a full campaign is a tossup at best.
So they're basically showing that Biden's chances improve with Kennedy on the ballot.
'In a head-to-head matchup between RFK Jr and Joe Biden …'
But that's not how this works. It's not how any of this works.
It is interesting though. Why aren't the democrats running RFK?
Nice try.
I'm still maintaining that Biden is not on the ballot this fall.
That’s so stupid…
Well they are not factoring in cheating so....
The Vault Dweller said...
I think it is a very, very, very unlikely longshot but I could imagine a scenario where Kennedy slowly picks up support until he reaches a certain critical mass where he then becomes an actual possibility in enough people's minds that there is a snowballing effect and he get lots of support.
I don't think it is a long shot. I have a friend in spaces that hates Trump and floated this scenario.
We both think RFK is a CIA plant.
There is a solid possibility that they kill Joe and prop him up as a martyr and condemn criticism of the dead.
And replace him with RFK who is just as nutty as any leftist on many issues.
He believes we should throw "climate deniers" in jail for example.
The regime is desperate and this should not be discounted as a possibility. It could bring the race back within the margin of mail in vote fraud.
Is RFKJ on every state ballot yet? First things first.
"President Biden cannot statistically win this election. Our campaign’s Director of Content, Jonathan Hiller, explains why."
Jonathan Hiller didn’t explain that though. He explained that Joe Biden is down 50 electoral votes based solely on their campaign’s own poll without looking at any others. He suggests that’s a big margin, but it’s only 1 or 2 states. He didn’t say anything to demonstrate that it is statistically impossible for Biden to win.
The charitable interpretation is that RFK Jr. is just using statistically as a weasel word that modifies and weakens the word cannot. The uncharitable interpretation is that RFK Jr. has proved himself to be a liar.
I'm not dispute those RFKjr head-to-head predictions, which would then relegate him to being a spoiler.
A for effort. It's based on the premise that the 30% in the US who hate both parties would all go RFK Jr. plus various sections of the traditional parties in various scenarios. Maybe. But the time has passed - the primary season - when any of the scenarios could have happened. Yes, maybe Joe Biden is the real spoiler - or maybe "Columbia Loves Hamas" - or maybe "Hate America First - Democrats 2024." Give it a try, Bobby. You might cause an outbreak of common sense on the left. More possibly, you might be there to pick up the pieces if Senile Joe unmistakably, publicly fails. But then you'd have to take on Trump, fresh from combat with the intelligence agencies and the DOJ. A lion against a dreamer.
Weird soundtrack.
"So they're basically showing that Biden's chances improve with Kennedy on the ballot."
That is what one would call the "Moron Take" on the video and its polling data, Howard.
"Is RFKJ on every state ballot yet? First things first."
The real question will be how many he can stay on even after getting on. The Democrats are planning a full-scale legal war on his petitions and, failing in that battle, to file lawsuits on other issues. With very compliant judges working for the Democrats, I suspect that Kennedy will find himself tossed off many ballots starting in July and August.
I live in a county that leans a lot Republican. (e.g., whoever wins the sheriff primary, ends up as sheriff.) In 2020 I did see Biden signs here and there, especially in front of my neighbor's place to the north. (Diehard Democrat originally from Milwaukee.) This year so far I haven't seen one single Biden sign. I did, however, see a Kennedy sign today on my way to town.
None of this matters, since Biden will not be the Democrat candidate. How can anyone think the Dems will run him when the country knows he is an unmitigated disaster and the polls unequivocally corroborate that?
Looked for more information of the Zogby poll of "over 25,000" and couldn't find much.
Zogby hired into the Kennedy campaign late last year. Poll was online. Respondents were selected from their database of "over 15 million."
It smells.
Yeah. Good luck with that.
Yeah. Good luck with that.
That's right, Howard. There's a pony in there somewhere. Keep hope alive.
"With very compliant judges working for the Democrats, I suspect that Kennedy will find himself tossed off many ballots starting in July and August."
I suppose expecting the Democrats to field a candidate that voters actually prefer is out of the question, then?
i PERSONALLY, have done EXTENSIVE Polling and Research.. and MY numbers CLEARLY show,
That Lindsay Lohan should be dating gilbar.
My numbers Further show, that Lindsay Lohan should MARRY gilbar (without prenups)
Do you DOUBT MY numbers? you shouldn't! They are JUST AS Factual as Kennedy's
RFK's man in the video says, "So if you do not want to see Donald Trump become the next President of the United States..."
I guess the ad is targeting Dem voters and Trump averse independents, but as a Deplorable out in sticks, as a working class American who kinda likes what he has been saying, that line makes me very uncomfortable with RFK Jr.
Here's Robert Kennedy Jr in a '05 IdeaCity speech:
"Red state people are more likely to murder you, to impregnate your teenage daughter, to commit a violent crime against you...to buy pornography, to buy degenerate video games..."
https://twitter.com/i/status/1785722701211963566
Not very nice. What's changed, Bobby?
Will he return to this hateful, divisive bullshit if his numbers go up with the Dem voters he's courting who eat this shit up with a spoon? What will RFK say about us Deliverance hillbillies if they force Biden out and want to nominate him at the convention? Has it all just been pandering? Is he just another weasel in the...what do you call a group of weasels? A blabber? A blabber of weasels. I like that and propose it's adoption. Anyway, is RFK just another weasel in the blabber?
Serious Question:
Of the votes for Biden (81 million last time, 100 million this time?) How many are going to be counted as being for Kennedy?
Answer: NONE
It isn't how votes that counts.. It's Who Counts the votes
The Democrats do not plan on statistically winning the next election. They intend to flat out steal it. And I predict Civil War next year. Neither side is taking it seriously enough. The right is "we have most of the guns and people willing to use them" and the left is "the military is going to help us oppress their families", and what we are going to get is millions, and potentially tens of millions, dead. I dread next year.
There is no real math behind the claim that "Biden statistically cannot win." What does "statistically cannot" mean? Looking at their data--and assuming it is perfectly accurate--here is what I see: RFK is likely to win all the same 244 electoral votes as Biden, plus RFK is likely to beat Trump in IA, GA, and UT, which would give RFK 244 + 6 + 16 + 6 = 272 electoral votes. (I am unable to see how they got to 270, unless I am missing 2 electoral votes that Biden would likely win and RFK would likely lose.
So, polling 25,000 people is interesting, but so what? How good are their polls for IA, GA, and UT?
Trump has not yet picked his VP. Kennedy picked a nobody and Biden has "that woman" people hate.
Trump + Someone will move a state or two.
Pre-fraud, of course.
"what do you call a group of weasels? A blabber? A blabber of weasels. I like that and propose it's adoption.
--
Altfisk bait
Biden should lose and be drawn and quartered.
Pro and anti-Israel protesters showed up at the University of Alabama today and eventually both sides began chanting “Fuck Joe Biden.” Props to Biden for bringing America together. Roll Tide, y’all.
Inga, NBC Rich, and NBC Chuck hardest hit.
walter: "what do you call a group of weasels?"
LLR-democraticals.
Where was the analysis of the three way race? The speaker is playing with head to head vs what will really happen, which is a 3 way race either including Beiden or someone else. The jump between the technical definition of spoiler to the outcome of an election is a rhetorical trick, his conclusion is not who is a spoiler, but who can win. Even if the poll that no one has heard of is actually well done. Look only at the shiny object in my hand.
If anyone thinks RFK will beat Trump in UT and IA in a head to head election, as shown on the map, they are mistaken.
Sample count is less important than random selection of subjects, and internet polls don't count, self selected.
what we are going to get is millions, and potentially tens of millions, dead. I dread next year
-----
I don't. Bring it on. The American people are scum and deserve tens of millions dead.
Soooo... we're supposed to believe that RFKjr is the only thing that can stop Trump from being elected, or something. Yeah, right. I'll buy that for a dollar
The radical / or hivemind Jew-hating Trump-obsessed MSNBC crowd will stick with war-machine husk-puppet international pay-to-play for Biden family profit - above the law Joe.
Re: potential civil war--
"The American people are scum and deserve tens of millions dead."
Can we start with you, Mr. Wibble?
The collective noun for weasels is gang or sneak, or occasionally they are called bogles.
The only poll that matters is the one where enough universal mail in ballots are produced post-election to overcome a possible Trump margin of victory. Making them unverifiable and open to selective harvest for Dem votes was a stroke of genius on the part of the Dems.
I just call a weasel horde a Schumer.
I don’t look forward to a civil war. Chances are that many of us would end up among the dead.
Doesn't he understand that democrats are masters of cheating?
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