Writes Ruy Teixeira, in "The Working Class-Sized Hole in Democratic Support Widens/This is a big, big problem" (Liberal Patriot). He's looking at the recent NYT poll of voters in the battleground states.
Teixeira ends his column with the idea presented in Blueprint, which he quotes:
We tested messages that Biden could use to expose Trump’s vulnerabilities, and the ones that voters found most compelling focused on economic fairness and how that should be reflected in public policy—not on Biden and Trump’s respective characters, biographies, and backgrounds….
Hmm. I noticed the other day that, at a campaign appearance, Biden stood in front of a banner that read "Economic Fairness." I must say I made fun of the phrase. It's bland and it's really ambiguous. The only way I can see getting excited about it is by worrying about whose idea of "fairness" we're going to be subjected to. I thought the real idea behind it was a promise to raise taxes.
Blueprint’s latest survey, conducted in partnership with The Liberal Patriot, showed that many of the policies that are most popular with voters can be used to make the case that Biden is the candidate for average Americans while Trump is the candidate who advocates for the interests of the very rich. Among the 40 policies we tested, the most popular ones are those that crack down on corporations, lower the prices of health care and other things, and protect Medicare and Social Security.
Just as the most effective tax and economic policy messages in the poll centered on those topics, none of these stances are particularly sexy or novel; instead, they are positions that are easy to imagine any Democrat supporting over the last decade. Trump has many qualities and vulnerabilities that make him distinct from run-of-the-mill Republicans of the past and present, which are tempting to focus on in paid and earned media.
It has been an irresistible temptation, but perhaps at some point while there is still time, Democrats will see that it has failed.
But our polling shows that ahead of November, Biden would be wise to highlight boring-but-popular policy distinctions that he supports in order to drive home the overall contrast between himself and Trump on tax policy and economic fairness.
The old tax-and-spend promise.
Would this work? There is no guarantee; Democratic vulnerabilities on issues like immigration, crime, and social disorder would remain. But it does seem better suited to the realities of the coming working-class election than the Biden campaign’s current approach. That approach may resonate better with the Democrats’ shadow party and activist supporters, but not where it counts the most: with the working class.
Yeah, I've been saying I wish Biden and his people would engage on the substantive issues. I don't think they'll do it. I don't think it would work to single out "economic fairness" as the issue and to hope not to have to deal with immigration, crime, and social disorder. They won't go substantive. They'll keep using the issue that has worked so well for Trump: attacking Trump.
पोस्ट्स
७९ टिप्पण्या:
"This is a big, big problem"
Their biggest problem is that if they're not winning working class votes, then they've lost the rationale for the existence of the party.
We’re going to need to increase the size of the FBI by about 10 fold to track down all the insurrectionist’s after Trumps victory.
In PA, a lot of it is Biden's war on oil and gas. high paying blue collar work and royalties
What's happening here that isn't happening in Michigan and Pennsylvania?
The progressives are crazier there??
Well, except for the fact that the working class did well under Trump's economy and are suffering under Biden's, that's a swell idea.
Biden's wearing rose-colored aviators. He thinks the polling cited is inaccurate and that Americans have plenty of spending money. Teixeira writes every column begging Dems to see the working class, but he's spitting in the wind.
When you have polls, why bother with an actual on-the-ground operation in these states? Sure, the Dems are fully staffed, but that's just a waste of resources.
Biden is the candidate for average Americans while Trump is the candidate who advocates for the interests of the very rich.
He got his Biden and Trump backwards. At least since Obama, maybe since Clinton, the Democrats have been the party of billionaires and giant corporations. The only regular people they represent are government bureaucrats, who stand to gain from the Democrats' relentless growing of government.
I wish Biden and his people would engage on the substantive issues. I don't think they'll do it.
Why would Biden engage on issues where he does not represent the interests of the American people? Substantive issues are never going to help his reelection.
Who needs to be the "party of the working man" when you have friends like the Rockefellers and their foundation, Open Societies Foundation, Arabella Associates & Arabella Investors, The Tides Foundation, The Clinton Foundation, Kenneth Griffin, Elliott Management, and Guggenheim Investments among so many others as friends.
People who get their hands dirty are so pedestrian, don't you agree?
If their best idea is to promote fuzzy-wuzzy, ill-defined concepts with sugar coating, like 'economic fairness', then they're on the right track to lose.
What is 'economic fairness'? Because it sounds like it came from the same random-word generator as 'social justice'.
I think people are tired of Woke concepts that sound good, but are intentionally undefined for the purpose of exploitation, and end up as a tax on the forbearance and finances of normal people.
This is a big, big problem
Presumably the problem in this "Journalist"'s view is that Biden isn't being supported.
The real problem is that Biden's policies are so extreme that working-class people benefit not one whit from them. Why do the people controlling Biden do so much to push working-class people down?
Another good post today at Teixeira's substack (The Liberal Patriot) from John Halpin. Explores gender gaps in Biden v Trump support within racial groups.
Working class people actually experience the damage that Biden and the democrats are doing. Unlimited open borders brings forces them to compete against illegal alien serfs, inflation is killing them and their ability to save. Record interest rates are cancelling new projects. Not to mention home prices. They see their children stuck either at their homes or stuck in rentals because housing prices have gone through the roof.
Biden and the democrats have been an economic disaster for anyone NOT in the public sector.
Yeah, I've been saying I wish Biden and his people would engage on the substantive issues.
What you are really saying is you want Biden to lie to you so you can justify voting for him.(again)
Biden opened the borders. Biden started multiple wars. Biden printed so much money and gave it to his cronies that real inflation has been double digits. Actual crime is exploding. Biden is trying to put his political opponent in jail. Our government is openly colluding with Google and Facebook to censor and control.
Biden's has actions for the last 4 years. He doesn't need to engage on substantive issues. You just need to look at what is right in front of you.
Most of the people on this board treat politics like a game.
When in doubt, blame "tribalism" for Joe Sixpack's stubborn refusal to come around.
Not that immigration and crime stuff.
Biden can't win against Trump on economic fairness:
(1) Inflation is economically unfair to the working class.
(2) Student loan forgiveness is economically unfair to the working class.
Blogger Hari said...
"Biden can't win against Trump on economic fairness:
(1) Inflation is economically unfair to the working class.
(2) Student loan forgiveness is economically unfair to the working class."
Add to that:
(3) Flooding the work force with illegal immigrants holds down wages and absorbs resources that could go to the working class.
You know, upon reflection, Biden flying the banner of "Economic Fairness" is an even worse idea than it appears initially. Trump could have a field day. Best to stick with "Orange Man Bad".
Milwaukee Madison, Kenosha, green bay and door county outnumber the rest of the state
the most popular ones are those that crack down on corporations,
It's a real Jekyll and Hyde, cunundrum
Campaign speech: Tax those evil corporations! That's what I did with my CHIPS bill, Giving $Billions to computer chip manufactures in the US
So yes tax the evil, and Reward the deserving, and trust me to decide each.
"Among the 40 policies we tested, the most popular ones are those that crack down on corporations, lower the prices of health care and other things, and protect Medicare and Social Security."
Unionizing healthcare workers? Firing essential workers who refused the jab? Inflationary monetary policies? Broadening the definition of who qualifies for SSI?
These issues should be fish in a barrel for the folks who create campaign ads for the RNC, but will they actually go there? I gotta wonder.
From Ruy Txcreatureoftheblacklagoon: "Among the 40 policies we tested,"
Dummies. You have to stand for something. Marketing like the above isn't going to do it in such polarized, cutthroat times. Biden stands for nothing but corruption and endless lies. Trump stands for dissolution, but also for bravery and patriotism. Those last two will win it. Cheats, out; won't quite cut it again this year.
Rory said...
"This is a big, big problem"
Their biggest problem is that if they're not winning working class votes, then they've lost the rationale for the existence of the party.
=================
but if D are party of slavery were they ever the party of working class [for pay]
This is precisely the coalition that could create a generational republican electoral advantage (assuming the democratical/LLR-democratical cheat machine can be held somewhat in check) but is currently a Trump coalition ONLY.
And that's because these voters sense that the GOPe hates their guts as much as the democraticals/LLR-democraticals do....and these voters are not wrong about that.
You can count on the GOPe-ers to do everything in their power to drive these deplorables away just as soon as they can after taking Trump out with their dem allies.
"What's happening here that isn't happening in Michigan and Pennsylvania?"
That is the right question and there isn't a reasonable answer that doesn't involve how the polling pools were constructed in each state. There is something clearly different in how these polls were conducted.
"Biden stood in front of a banner that read "Economic Fairness." I must say I made fun of the phrase. It's bland and it's really ambiguous."
Yes, it is. What does it mean? Allowing more illegal alien invaders across what's barely a border anymore, driving wages down further? Increased taxing/borrowing in order to spend even more money the government doesn't have, with the resultant inflation that would cause? Or is there some other kind of fairness Brandon's handlers have in mind?
"Yeah, I've been saying I wish Biden and his people would engage on the substantive issues."
You mentioned immigration, crime, and social disorder. There's also the issue of sexually mutilating children, grooming preschoolers, making energy prohibitively expensive, outlawing ICE vehicles and generally attempting to micromanage even the tiniest details of people's lives (Like your stove? Too bad, you can't keep it), mandating experimental medicines as a condition of employment, taking political prisoners, censoring the internet, and attempting to imprison their opponents. Democrats are in favor of all those things.
Is there anything substantive that Democrats support, that makes the average person's life better? It might be a shorter list.
In our TV market we see a lot of Sherrod Brown ads (OH Dem, senate). The theme is always the same. An ordinary Joe or Mary talking about how there was this evil villain corporation treating them unfairly, but Sherrod Brown, the Righteous Savior, stepped in and saved them and got them what they deserved. It sounds hokey to say it like that, but I'm sure the ads are effective.
"The only regular people they represent are government bureaucrats..."
Five of the ten richest counties in America are in the DC area. I would submit those living there are, for the most part, not "regular people".
Trump's latest Rally starts good
But didn't end well
Lots of stuff there, and while I disagree with Ruy Teixeira on policy; I think he is doing the best at trying to keep Democrats doing democracy rather than critical theories focused on power retention.
As for working class; I find it interesting every time the talking heads and hack commenters claim the economy is fine and thoughts of it not being fine is just in our heads. They really think that message is good, because they keep delivering it. How is a person with a WARN layoff notice supposed to take that argument? We know how people looking at the price off groceries take that argument, and the response to them is they are supposedly spouting disinformation. I don't want to help Democrats, so I say keep following that strategy. It's working (for Trump)!
As for whether Biden can now shift to focusing on boring economic policy and win? That's where I think Ruy doesn't get it. The economic problems are due to Biden passing his policies. Democrats got what they wanted when they controlled the White House and Congress, and we are all getting it good and hard. Remember how the Infrastructure Act was going to bring back a roaring economy after covid? It is the source of inflation. While people can point to crumbling infrastructure everywhere, what they can't point to is a better standard of living and jobs.
And in this particular article (unless it was in the unquoted sections), Ruy doesn't talk about the impact of unrestricted immigration on the working class. Nor is the mention of rampant crime with DA's letting violent offenders walk the street while self-defense is punished harshly. The working class is unable to live comfortably even if they have jobs and can afford groceries, because they have to worry about being robbed. The end result is Trump gains working class votes, simply because the working class has no where else to go. It is why people, probably Althouse herself, tend to gravitate to RFK Jr., because he is another alternative, but like Biden and the Democrats, his policies will be equally destructive to the working class.
Among the 40 policies we tested, the most popular ones are those that crack down on corporations, lower the prices of health care and other things, and protect Medicare and Social Security.
Aren't these issues better suited for a Democrat running as a challenger rather than incumbent?
Are there any working class people left in WI?
Or have all the universities and big businesses hired 3 or 4 million people as DEI consultants.
That's what it feels like in CA...
The working class in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania are different from Wisconsin
RideSpaceMountain said...
Who needs to be the "party of the working man" when you have friends like the Rockefellers and their foundation..
The Left does. It's not easy to be on the "Right Side of History" when you've got no down trodden to champion.
Althouse said…"What's happening here that isn't happening in Michigan and Pennsylvania?"
Blogger Yancey Ward said..."That is the right question and there isn't a reasonable answer that doesn't involve how the polling pools were constructed in each state. There is something clearly different in how these polls were conducted."
Seems to me it could be just statistical variation. If you run a noisy experiment multiple times (i.e. each state poll is a separate experiment) you will get outliers. But Althouse has always rejected the statistics explanation when it comes to political polls.
"Biden can't win against Trump on economic fairness:
(1) Inflation is economically unfair to the working class.
(2) Student loan forgiveness is economically unfair to the working class."
Add to that:
(3) Flooding the work force with illegal immigrants holds down wages and absorbs resources that could go to the working class.
Add to THAT:
(4) Destroying the domestic automobile and oil production industries for the sake of appeasing climate change alarmists destroys good jobs at the expense of the working class.
Screw these polls. By "election day" 2024© Trump is very likely going to be a convicted felon with a million court imposed restrictions on his freedom of action. (That is if he isn't actually incarcerated.) Let's see how the lawfare campaign against him goes first. Nb. A POTUS can't pardon himself from state convictions folks. So let's see if Trump even makes it to "election day". I have my doubts. Some of you goobers are just setting yourselves up for another 2022 style Red Mirage© (copyright CNBC). Blurbs like Althouse's citation are but smoke n' mirrors for boobs until the demographic glacier covers us over. Glaciers may be slow but their movement forward is as devastating as it is inevitable. My 2¢
What's happening here that isn't happening in Michigan and Pennsylvania?
You can do state to state demographic comparisons here though only between two states at a time, and I didn't see a national average for comparison.
Doing a little comparing and other googling, Wisconsin has a significantly greater white population by percentage (87%, vs 82% PA and 79% MI) though all are far whiter than the US as a whole (61%). Age distributions only vary by one or two percent and are in line with the US distribution. Income figures were a little tricker but it appears that Wisconsin likely has the highest average income of the three though all are below the 2021 US national median.
I don't think you can attribute the differences to just how the survey was done.
"Kate said...
Biden's wearing rose-colored aviators. He thinks the polling cited is inaccurate and that Americans have plenty of spending money."
Agree. Think of it this way: imagine a weekly shopping basket with 30 items [single, older woman) and every item costs $1 more than it did when Biden was elected. And add in $10 more for one 10 gallon fill up per week. And, add in the cost of insurance in Wisconsin going up $60 per month or $15 per week.
$30
$20
$15
Total expenses have gone up $65/week. Every week. $265 more per month in expenses is Biden's idea of prosperity
But Biden says inflation has stopped and we're all too stupid to notice how well we're doing. The rate of inflation may have slowed. The consequences of inflation remain. And Biden doesn't intend to do anything about it all except jail Trump, who is proposing alternatives.
And what if I were in a family with a hundred weekly grocery items items, with lots of gallons of gas to buy to drive the kids about, with increased insurance payments because we live in Wisconsin, with a recently negotiated mortgage payment?
If "economic fairness" meant that money taken from George Soros or Bill Gates came to me and millions like me and made up that $65 extra dollars a week - that would be something. But in reality "economic fairness" only means that the government would get a lot more money (which, in fact, the government wouldn't get. Soros/Gates et al are connected; the government isn't going to get their money.) Anyhow, whatever pittance the government got from Soros/Gates et al in the name of "economic fairness", the government would keep from the people and waste on dreamy plans. Maybe another war. Maybe more money to Hamas. Or Iran. Maybe subsidize solar power in the northern tier states which have 4 months of cloud cover in winter.
"Economic fairness" sounds like a suspiciously POPULIST theme. Is the message here that, in order for Biden to win, he has to try to out-populist Trump? At this point, it certainly seems like a tough pivot.
I also think it's plainly obvious at this point that the dems are ANTI-populist and anti-"the little guy." Their entire focus is on governing society through the heavy hands of entire institutions: media, tech, big business, universities, the courts, global institutions, etc. People aren't suddenly going to be gaslit into believing that Biden and the dems are worried about how the working class are being treated.
"Across the battleground, Biden is losing to Trump among working-class voters by 16 points."
Don’t worry, his lead among the illegals is probably close to 100 points.
@Howard
Please, don't ever change.
Mason G: "attempting to micromanage even the tiniest details of people's lives (Like your stove? Too bad, you can't keep it)"
This is the harvest from the success of the "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor" lie, and the "we have to pass the bill to see what's in it." nonsense. The dem party concluded that they could get away with anything, and the repubs would only pushback feebly, if at all. Per Harry Reid, hey, it worked, didn't it?
re: Economic Fairness - When I saw that banner, my immediate thought was that it was a pre-emption of Bernie Sanders. But I must be wrong, Sanders is no factor this year. So I regard it as rhetorical noise, to distract the audience from the actual track record of Biden's admin.
Whatever view you choose to share,
Communist to laissez-faire,
All agree it’s hard to bear,
That some are bald, and some have hair.
If the world might come to care,
If bolder men might only dare,
If force were somehow brought to bear,
Then surely each will bear his fair share of hair.
"Economic Fairness"
I laughed, because yesterday the San Francisco NPR station devoted a huge segment to discussions about how Newsome is proposing to "solve" California's pending $45 Billion budget shortfall (out of 250 Billion or so.)
Lots of angsting about possible cuts to a few of the enormous variety of social support programs. They danced around the side-effects of the current tax structure, which relies heavily on capital gains from the wealthy (who are showing a dismayingly increasing tendency to leave the state). The usual fretting about Prop 13, with no mention of the state-level theft of what use to be local property taxes.
No mention at all of the costs of our regulatory environment or the loss of businesses. No mention at all of the continuing influx of populations dependent on government handouts. No mention at all of the relative increase in education spending on administrative staffs (and this is a huge deal here because of the education spending mandate).
"NPR: adding no value to the conversation since 1995."
"Seems to me it could be just statistical variation."
Big variance in what are basically very similar demographics and geography are a tell that the error bars given are much, much too small- probably by a magnitude.
'No mention at all of the costs of our regulatory environment or the loss of businesses. No mention at all of the continuing influx of populations dependent on government handouts. No mention at all of the relative increase in education spending on administrative staffs (and this is a huge deal here because of the education spending mandate)."
What about a 50-cent increase in gas taxes, already the highest in the country?
But let's suppose Christopher is correct and the difference is that Wisconsin is measurably whiter- how is that good news for Biden with regards to Wisconsin? It would suggest that minority working class are moving towards Trump in greater percentages than white working class workers. I come back to the NYT/Siena polls in the same states from the same periods of 2020 and 2024- Biden has lost catastrophic support if the polls are being run by the same people in the same ways. Either Biden is in deep shit or the pollsters are doing the polls with different motivations than in 2020.
"Aren't these issues better suited for a Democrat running as a challenger rather than incumbent?"
Absolutely- it is why Robert Kennedy has some traction as a 3rd party candidate- that dissatisfaction within the ruling coalition finds its outlet in that way- either a strong primary challenge to the incumbent/incumbent stand-in (when a 3rd consecutive term is on offer for a party- see 2016 and Bernie Sanders) or a 3rd party run.
Fred Drinkwater said, No mention at all of the costs of our regulatory environment...
That's not costs, it's investment!
Mea Sententia, it sounds like Sherrod Brown is running as a trial lawyer. I'm not seeing a lot of ads for the senate race here in Wisconsin but from what I have seen it looks like our incumbent Dem is going with the same tactics.
"Working class people". The people Howard loves to hate.
"Economic Fairness" is a progressive concept to make you as poor as your poorest neighbor.
Define "Fair".
This is a big, big problem
Only if the Democrats want to represent working class people, which they don't. But because they need working class votes they will lie. It is getting harder to pull that off, let's see how they do.
Seems like the key for Biden is understanding Wisconsin. What's happening here that isn't happening in Michigan and Pennsylvania?
No one really works in Wisconsin. As far as I can tell they’re all university professors.
/sarc
Biden stood in front of a banner that read "Economic Fairness." I must say I made fun of the phrase. It's bland and it's really ambiguous.
More to the point, it’s easy to create ads that truthfully and unambiguously demonstrate that during Biden’s term the rich got richer while people who work hard for a living got poorer in real terms. Do, by all means, have Joe Biden attempt to offer up an economic message.
PLEASE!!!
@Althouse, I get that you personally hate, loathe, and utterly de-spise Donald Trump, especially after he hit you right in your limousine liberal wallet by getting rid of the SALT deduction, and doubly so after Dobbs. But if you don’t mind a word or two of advice from an old hand (and I know you do, but you’ll get some anyway) if you want to play the political game you have to start by getting rid of emotional baggage. Yeah, you lost late term and post partum abortion. But there was a point, before Dobbs, when twenty weeks was on the table for the taking. You feminists blew it, but seething over it won’t help you beat Trump.
Rule number two is to get out of your bubble. You are — apparently — an affluent person living in an affluent city. From your posts I judge that inflation isn’t particularly impacting you. Now think of things from the perspective of someone who isn’t so affluent. Do you really think an economic “fairness” message from Joe Biden is going to resonate? Do you think people who couldn’t afford Christmas presents for their kids thanks to Biden’s inflation for the first time since the kids were born are going to buy a message of economic “fairness” from Joe Biden? After Afghanistan can he run on his administration’s competence? After spending three years insisting the US southern border was secure, can they run on their integrity?
Your beloved Democrats have a lot of work to do and I do not wish them (or you) luck.
It's hard for the party paid for by the Billionaires of Silicon Valley, the Millionaires of Hollywood and the national media, as well as the Billionaires who fund international NGO's and their offspring (such as the Soros Group) to talk much about 'economic fairness' these days.
It would fall short to the masses who have a clear view now of the new land each party operates from. It's different than it was just a couple of decades ago. The Democrats ceased being the working class party during Obama's years. The GOP ceased to be the country club party and the party of Big Business just during and after Newt Gingrich's time as Speaker.
It's like the earth's magnetic poles switching. The political parties have already done so. Although there are hangers on in both parties from the old lineup, the newer bloods in both parties are looking at things from a different place than say...Joe Biden.
The Democrats thought they could become the Party of the Rich without losing their status as the Party of the Working Person.
Uh, no.
The political realignment continues as the Democrats flood the country with new working people.
Biden/Democrats have been running their party of special interest politics overtly. Forgive student loans, give money or give into this leftwing group.
Problem is, their special interest groups are now in conflict, such as between pro-Israel and Hamas-aligned on campus.
Yesterday, on The Five, Maria Harf said the "one time he held back a few bombs because the Israelis were about to massacre a bunch of children". What the hell? That veers mighty close to blood libel. It that how Democrats talk at their cocktail parties?
https://youtu.be/hiQCyWj7g3A?t=251
Mises, Ludwig von (1927). Liberalism:
The parties of special interests, which see nothing more in politics than the securing of privileges and prerogatives for their own groups, not only make the parliamentary system impossible; they rupture the unity of the state and of society. They lead not merely to the crisis of parliamentarism, but to a general political and social crisis. Society cannot, in the long run, exist if it is divided into sharply defined groups, each intent on wresting special privileges for its own members, continually on the alert to see that it does not suffer any setback, and prepared, at any moment, to sacrifice the most important political institutions for the sake of winning some petty advantage.
If the candidates engage on substantive issues--with the exception of the abortion issue--Trump beats Biden hands down. And while Joe can promise this and promise that on abortion (as with any other issue) he mostly hasn't delivered much more than mumblety peg. And mumblety peg is synonymous with "squat".
If the candidates engage on substantive issues--with the exception of the abortion issue--Trump beats Biden hands down. And while Joe can promise this and promise that on abortion (as with any other issue) he mostly hasn't delivered much more than mumblety peg. And mumblety peg is synonymous with "squat".
(4) Destroying the domestic automobile and oil production industries for the sake of appeasing climate change alarmists destroys good jobs at the expense of the working class.
@Dogma and Pony Show, I think you’re onto something, but you don’t go far enough. Think of it as a giant, sick, game.
“I can use climate change to force the peasants to give up their gas stoves. They didn’t even notice that I lied and told them no one was coming for their gas stoves. Stupid peasants bought it.”
“Oh yeah? Well I can force those peasants out of cars with internal combustion engines and into EVs that spontaneously combust and might burn their house down with them and their family sleeping in it. Damned peasants shouldn’t be driving anyway, except as our chauffeurs.”
“Well I can force them to give up warm showers.”
“That’s nothing. I can force them to eat bugs!”
Time to stop playing games.
This Althouse statement was remarkable to me:
Yeah, I've been saying I wish Biden and his people would engage on the substantive issues. I don't think they'll do it. I don't think it would work to single out "economic fairness" as the issue and to hope not to have to deal with immigration, crime, and social disorder. They won't go substantive. They'll keep using the issue that has worked so well for Trump: attacking Trump.
It's okay on its face; who doesn't want politics to be decided on "substantive issues"? Don't answer that too quickly, TrumpWorld.
I thought this little essay by Aaron Rupar and Noah Berlastsky at PublicNotice was one of the most important things that I saw on the internet in this month of May:
He's Not Even Trying to Hide It.
It is a commentary (almost too brief, for my tastes in Trump-hatred and Trump-ridicule) on the lengthy interview that Trump did with TIME magazine a few weeks ago. An excerpt from Rupar and Berlatsky's essay:
Trump’s proposals are terrifying. But they’re also remarkably incoherent. What’s most striking in the interview is that Trump, even after four years as president, has virtually no grasp on any policy issue beyond empty talking points, most of which are lies. When asked how he will implement his plans, he waffles, obfuscates, and delivers a stream of non sequitur boasts about how great he is or about how other people have said that he’s great. He lies all the time, but many of his statements on core policy issues are so garbled and gassy they don’t even qualify as lies. It’s like interacting with a chatbot programmed by a fascist parrot.
...
... Trump’s threats and schemes are grim. But in some ways, highlighting his worst plans and schemes undersells how disturbing the interview is. Summarizing and codifying the policy points makes Trump sound like he is focused, or at least like he has a general understanding of what he’s saying or thinking.
Reading the whole interview, though, it’s clear that Trump does not know anything about anything. His mind is a series of hazy orange corridors filled with dead ends, open pits, and trip wires. He stumbles through the maze, thunking gently off the walls, every so often belching forth a random quasi-anecdote or catch phrase. Here a steel executive weeps with gratitude at sight of Trump; there people spontaneously break into laughter when Trump says he’s going to be a dictator on day one; over here, Trump confusingly argues that his former National Security Advisor John Bolton "served a good purpose because he's a nutjob." And no, there's no context in which that statement make sense.
Go to the link to find extensive quotes from the TIME/Trump interview, as well as detailed examples quoted from Trump speeches, rallies and social media. All supporting the notion -- which is not discussed nearly enough in today's media -- that it is impossible to credibly make the common claim that "we like Trump's policies, not his personal demeanor..." That cannot be credibly claimed, because there is no "policy" with Trump. Even if Trump were handed a cogent policy platform crafted by competent aides, he could never articulate it himself. He doesn't understand, or care, about any of it. The Rupar/Berlatsky essay details exactly how that is so.
"Across the battleground, Biden is losing to Trump among working-class voters by 16 points."
Totally not important to a democrat. Democrats don't care about 'working class'.. They despise them
The democrat party is the Affluent Wealthy Female Urban Leftists (the AWFUL) party
Asking democrats to be concerned with working-class would be like asking for concern with Blacks
Rory said..
if they're not winning working class votes, they've lost the rationale for the existence of the party.
Not Hardy! to rationale for the existence of the democrat party is PROPERTY RIGHTS
in particular, the RIGHT to treat other people (blacks, babies) as PROPERTY
“Don’t worry, his lead among the illegals is probably close to 100 points”
And that’s the problem. Yes, illegals cannot legally vote. But well funded left wing tax exempt NGOs are telling them to do just that, along with how to lie in order to claim sanctuary. Some illegals are registering to vote. It’s of course verboten to ask how many but I saw the other day that she have estimated 1/3 of the illegals who have illegally entered this country illegally registered to vote ere. That would be 5-10 million illegal voters. With the Dems’ margins of victory in these swing states in the 4 to low 5 digits in 2020 (with Rey obvious election fraud), we are talking orders of magnitude greater numbers of illegals voting illegally, presumably, as dir3ct3d by those NGOs for Democrats.
Reminds me a bit of Katy Hobbs in AZ in 2022. She wasn’t campaigning, and when asked about it, she responded that she had a different approach. Turs out, it involved even greater election fraud than she oversaw in AZ in 2020 as Secretary of State. Part of it involved printing custom ballots at polling places (esp in Republican precincts) at one size, and then expecting to scan them back in as if they were a different size. The natural, and expected, result was that many, probably a majority, of the misprinted ballots couldn't scan. The relevance here is that the Dems appear to be doing the same thing here with illegals illegally registering to illegally vote. And I fully expect the FJB DOJ to step in here to protect illegals illegally voting, as they did in 2022 when Republicans in AZ tried to monitor ballot drop off boxes (we found out later, from cell phone records that there had been significant repeated drop box dumpings, through a series of drop boxes every day).
Yancey Ward said...
But let's suppose Christopher is correct and the difference is that Wisconsin is measurably whiter- how is that good news for Biden with regards to Wisconsin?
I was more trying to answer the Professor's question than looking for good news for Biden. IIRC Wisconsin has always been less favorable to Trump than the other Upper Midwest/Rust Belt swing states despite his narrow 2016 win so this poll is not an outlier. Higher average income + white + urban has generally been the trend in increased support for Democrats. It seems to me that Wisconsin lands in between the geopolitically similar Iowa (more rural, lower income, more white, more Trump/GOP) and Minnesota (more urban, much higher income, less white, strongly Democrat).
I think you're right there really isn't good news for Biden in the Wisconsin polling. Doing better there than in Michigan and Pennsylvania is likely entirely due to demographics, including the increasing likely minority shift to the GOP, rather than policy positions. Without some real black swan event that is obviously a possibility in the campaign, the current results might already be baked in as indicated by a recent Byron York column that noted little change in polling in the five swing states over the last six months, despite fairly significant events happening.
Deep State Reformer
i kinda miss the olden days, when Chuck just used his actual account, instead of making new ones
We’re going to need to increase the size of the FBI by about 10 fold to track down all the insurrectionist’s after Trumps victory.
Pfft. You really think today's Stasi FBI has any concerns at all about an "insurrection" coming from the Left? If anything, they will organize and supply it.
Teixeira writes every column begging Dems to see the working class, but he's spitting in the wind.
The Democrats hate the working class's guts now. All those guns and 4x4 trucks and bass boats and disdain for radical college-campus wokery.
The Democrats are primarily a party of poor, angry, ill-educated, government-dependent minorities who have not held a full-time job for four generations. They are led by a cadre of far-left radicals who go to great lengths to ensure that minorities will never find good work and will always remain poor, angry, ill-educated, and government-dependent.
Peace and prosperity kill the left wing dream, and they are determined that we will have neither.
What's the matter with Wisconsin.
As Wisconsin has the highest percentage of persons of Germanic descent in the country (37%) and a state media dominated by progressive newspapers (primarily the Journal Sentinel, the State Journal and bleed over from the Star Tribune) the good Germans of Wisconsin are just following their orders.
"Big variance in what are basically very similar demographics and geography are a tell that the error bars given are much, much too small- probably by a magnitude."
I've never bought their error bars as an accurate assessment of their error. I imagine the error bars include the assumption that they have a sample representative of the population. But that's the hard part, isn't it? A representative sample, which I bet they miss by a country mile.
Blogger Hassayamper said...
Teixeira writes every column begging Dems to see the working class, but he's spitting in the wind.
The Democrats hate the working class's guts now. All those guns and 4x4 trucks and bass boats and disdain for radical college-campus wokery.
I looked at Teixeira's blog and he has an interesting post on black voters. Black men are more favorable to Trump than female blacks. I suspect that most middle class blacks, especially female ones, are government employees and hence loyal Democrats. I think that is especially true of single black women. It probably affects the polls on abortion, too.
After reading and commenting here, I ran my partner to the doctor, where she had a procedure. While she was tied up there, I ran to 7-11 for some pop, and what happened there was illustrative of the problems that face FJB and the Dems. There was a big Black woman behind the counter. She told me that she liked my (red Trump) hat. She apparently already has some of his gear. I told her that if she wants more, she should drop by his hotel here. Check out the gift store. She got excited, and vowed to do it.
Why is that significant? She’s a hard working, working class, Black woman, not the least bit embarrassed to declare her Trump support in public. In the past, they have been the base of Dems’ foot soldiers. When we saw election workers, running stacks of ballots through counting machines again and again, etc they were usually Black, and usually female. Black men seemed to be moving towards Trump earlier, with a widening split with Black women. This is evidence that the gap may be closing a bit, as Black women now seem to be moving towards Trump. This Trump hotel seems to attract a lot of Blacks. Sometimes it seems like half the guests are Black. I think that they like the bling, but more and more, they seem to like Trump himself. It’s not just Blacks, of course. I get positive comments all the time about my various Trump hats, and they seem to come mostly from working class people. White, Hispanic, and now Black.
"NPR: adding no value to the conversation since 1995."
That's just not fair.
NPR has been on the air since 1971!
I discovered where Achilles gets his marching orders. Crazy Ivan
https://forbiddenknowledgetv.net/ivan-raiklin-schools-npr-producer-on-the-patriotic-peaceful-retribution-thats-coming/
Joe has given his word as a Biden that he will absolutely, positively raise income taxes on the middle class by letting the Trump tax cuts expire. That is an increase of 3% on average. What's not to love?
Over-compensating Non-combat "vet" Howitzer Howard, the Althouse blog islamic supremacist suck up boy, is clearly not handling the fact of increasing minority support for Trump very well at all.
These woke lefty white boy overseers like Howie are going to have to come to grips with more minorities fleeing the lunatic lefty political plantations.
gilbar said...
Deep State Reformer
i kinda miss the olden days, when Chuck just used his actual account, instead of making new ones
5/17/24, 1:13 PM
You don't even know how stupid and insulting this is.
I posted my own comment earlier. A longish, carefully crafted comment. "Moderation" seems to have held it up. "Deep State Reformer" is not -- as Deep State Reformer knows -- not a substitute account for me. Just FYI; I don't operate a-n-y fake/alternative accounts.
Althouse; you can fix the blocking of my earlier comment on this page.
Chuck @ 7:40
Nobodycaresfuckoff.
“Screw these polls. By "election day" 2024© Trump is very likely going to be a convicted felon with a million court imposed restrictions on his freedom of action. (That is if he isn't actually incarcerated.) Let's see how the lawfare campaign against him goes first. Nb. A POTUS can't pardon himself from state convictions folks. So let's see if Trump even makes it to "election day". I have my doubts. Some of you goobers are just setting yourselves up for another 2022 style Red Mirage© (copyright CNBC). Blurbs like Althouse's citation are but smoke n' mirrors for boobs until the demographic glacier covers us over. Glaciers may be slow but their movement forward is as devastating as it is inevitable. My 2¢”
The problem there is that Trump would have the army, plus tens of thousands of federal officers, at his beck and call. The NY people show up at the WH, to cart him off to jail, and be surprised that he is protected by tanks, attack aircraft, and embedded machine guns.
The other thing to keep in mind is that a NY conviction isn’t about to survive appeal. It’s a BS LawFare case, using a novel, creative, legal theory and statutory interpretation. Fine for the conviction, but LawFare cases almost always lose on appeal, if for no other reason than the fact that these are based on novel, untested legal theories and interpretations means that those who run afoul of such were not on notice that their actions might be criminal, and thus violative of 14th Amdt Due Process. Judge Marchan may try to jail Trump if he convicts him, but that’s not going to work. He’s not a flight risk (leading in the polls in his run to be elected President. And any reasonable bail would be pocket change for him. If he doesn’t get relief from the NY courts, there is always the federal system, with its 6-3 Republican majority on the Supreme Court, at the top.
Besides, convicting Trump and trying to immediately imprison him, on these novel LawFare charges, would not be a good look, esp with the working class. They know all about upper middle class and upper class privilege, and know that it doesn’t apply to them. Trump tells them that he is fighting these cases in court, so they won’t have to. It resonates with the working class. This sort of gross overreach is just the sort of thing to turn the election into a landslide for Trump
So, go ahead, and make his day.
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