That's a comment, at the NYT, to the news article "Zelensky Lowers Draft Age to Shore Up Ukraine’s Depleted Army/The idea of requiring more men to join the fight against Russia’s invasion has become toxic politically, but Russia is not relenting in its assault."
I read that headline and imagined they were going as low as maybe 15, so I was extremely puzzled to read that they were only going "as low" as 25.
What's going on? From the article:
Even with the new change, Ukraine’s draft age is unusually high. The country had drafted men aged 27 to 60, and the average age in the military is over 40. Under martial law, all men 18 to 60 had already been prohibited from leaving the country in case any decision was made to draft them. Men and women can volunteer for military service starting at age 18....
They draft men in their 50s but not men in their early 20s?!
In formulating its mobilization plans, Ukraine has had to balance military, economic and demographic considerations. Lowering the draft age will bring more and healthier soldiers to the fight, but poses long-term risks for sustaining Ukraine’s population, given the country’s demographics.
As in most former Soviet states, Ukraine has a small generation of 20-year-olds, because birthrates plummeted during the deep economic depression of the 1990s. Because of this demographic trough, there are now three times as many men in their 40s as in their 20s in Ukraine....
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52 comments:
"I can't believe I'm understanding this correctly."
Your justifiable confusion is a result of the Ukrainian government lying about the ages they are forcibly recruiting.
The avg Uke soldier is now over 40 and over 600,000 of the key fighting age males fled Ukraine to avoid fighting in the meat grinder.
But the russkis are deploying another army or 2 (whatever formations/numbers that means in their current configurations and tasking) after spending a year building up for an offensive this summer, so the Ukes have to pretend they have this well of available untapped manpower to meet that challenge.
Spoiler: they dont...and everyone knows it.
Which is why there is so much saber rattling going on about putting significantly more NATO troops into Ukraine.
"Because of this demographic trough, there are now three times as many men in their 40s as in their 20s in Ukraine...."
Well, there's your answer. There aren't enough 20 year olds to make a difference AND they're needed to make more Ukrainians.
American soldiers during WW2 were also mid to late 20s. Teenage boys are pretty much worthless. It's not surprising that a country at war isn't using them as soldiers.
"It seems possible that the Ukrainian legislature isn't as enthusiastic about driving out the Russians as their president. "
I would hazard a guess that a number of key legislatures have young sons who would soon be eligible.
I wrote in one of these threads several weeks ago- if you have to literally enslave the men into uniform to fight a war, perhaps the war isn't the just one you think it is.
Sounds like they're being smart not to squander what they have left of their seed corn.
Somebody tell Lindsay Graham that they are *not* willing to fight "to the last Ukrainian" to push US foreign policy objectives, or to rule over Crimea, or Donbas, areas which plainly, based on fighting them for ten years, don't want them back.
The NYT commenter cannot believe he has understood Ukraine's conscription policy, because he knows he has fundamentally misunderstood a foreign nation's political, social, and military conditions and doesn't want to understand because it is an intellectually difficult task that can upend one's preconceptions and prejudices.
If Ukraine's Gen Z is only half as obese, miseducated, under-motivated, confused, and generally hopeless as our Gen Z, then it follows that a wise conscription policy would select healthy men older than 27 years.
Sometimes I get the feeling that we are not being told the full story...
Guessing part of the calculus is that the young can more easily pick up stakes and emigrate for good rather than sign up.
The demographic prospects are grim in both Russia and Ukraine, as was life in general 20 to 30 years ago in both places. (show us the charts, Peter!)
Russia
Ukraine
Russia, being an empire, can burn up their ethnic minorities and prison population in the war while Ukraine cannot. The Russians are simply making war as they always have, throwing lives down a rathole of war until they win because they have more lives to chuck away. Of course, Putin is killing Russia in the process as well, but that's never stopped the Russians before. They'll only stop when they can no longer make war, or the empire is made whole again. It's the only way they can feel 'safe' from the West.
I read somewhere that the Ukrainian leadership thought the younger men would refuse to fight.
52% of respondents in a recent poll in Ukraine said it was justifiable to avoid military induction. It's the leadership who want to keep the war going, them and people from other countries using Ukraine for their own purposes.
During the Vietnam War, plenty of people were being drafted who were over 18 1/2. If you had, say, a student deferment and you graduated when you were 22, you were now eligible and would indeed be drafted if your number came up.
I can think of nothing dumber than risking their "seed corn" for this lost war.
One point that I have seen made is the over 27 set still have in their schema more that Russia and Ukraine are basically "brothers" ethnically, culturally, etc. "The same". I find that sentiment in the Ukrainians I interact with more. The younger set have had approximately half their life under the idea they are more Euro, different, and oppressed by Russia. If you kill off them first, you will lose a lot of sentiment to keep fighting/hold off from settlement.
Ukraine doesn't deserve a single cent until I am elected to congress and I can get some or that sweet kickback money.
For a mere $500k/month I will be a reliable vote for Ukraine war funding.
For an additional $250k/month I will also send money to Israel.
What a country!
Also, it Ukraine isn't serious about winning, fuck 'em.
How about young Ukrainian men fight and foreigners volunteer for demographic duty?
what age are Zzzelenkyyiii relatiiivvves
It occurs to me that they don't need that many 20-something males to make more little Ukrainians. They just need to institute some kind of harem setup.
By way of comparison, here is the breakdown for U.S. military active duty personnel:
65% of active duty Marines are 25 or under, followed by:
Army 42%
Navy 41%
Air Force 38%
Space Force 26%
Some say our military is a pretty good fighting force.
"They draft men in their 50s but not men in their early 20s?!"
I can think of only one tactically legitimate reason for this: They want young men to implant their seed in young women instead of having a ghost generation, as the Jews did post WW2. World Jewish population is still a million lower than it was in 1939.
I was surprised when I first heard about it. In the US, selective service registers people 18-25 (or at least they did when I was 18-25), so you age out of draft eligibility in the US before you even enter it in the Ukraine. That seems like the approach of a country not determined to win.
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the Spartan 300. One of the requirements of being among that group is that they had to have already sired a son. They were expendable because they'd already performed their most important duty.
The same demographic effect applies to Russia. Millions were never born. In addition, Russia lost hundreds of thousands of young men who fled at once to the West when the war began. And it has lost hundreds of thousands on the battlefield. It's losses are unsustainable in the long term but Russia is looking at the short term. It has an autocratic government which is able to mobilize the country without any regard for either the future of the country or the present wishes of the citizens. Moreover, Russia is taking the majority of its draftees from the little tribes and "republics" which are east of the Urals, It is exempting one way or another the people in the Moscow/ St Petersburg corridor. Structural colonialism is a misused term but it's alive and well in Russia.
The Ukraine is caught between the West and Russia. It wants to go West, to clean up corruption, to give it's citizens, not just its oligarchs, a future. Very unfortunately by a cruel irony of history as it tried to move West during the Obama regime it was handed over to Biden. Biden was the one who was there to help Ukraine end corruption and build its Army. With US and NATO help, Ukraine was able to modernize its Army enough to resist Russia's attack. Later, still more unfortunately, Ukraine chose in 2021 to assist in one of the many political persecutions of Trump. I have always supposed Ukraine knew Trump was out of power and Biden was in. Dem help with the Ukrainian Army continued and the Republicans in consequence of these events are convinced that the Ukraine is corrupt.
To me, With these small countries which have empires and large powers on every side, nothing that is said is really true, no position they take is real. Only if they fight on the battlefield is their position real and Ukraine is fighting. Are Ukrainian or even American oligarchs stealing from the Ukrainian fighting Army and dying soldiers? Who is there to stop them?
Don't discount the impact of the 1919 influenza epidemic on demographics during WWII. It occured right about the time men who would have been eighteen or nineteen in 1940 would have been born, and it disproportionately impacted younger people. One stat I remember reading is that the average age in the United States actually increased between the 1910 and 1920 censuses due to the number of young people who died during the epidemic, and the birth dearth caused by WWI.
However, in the 1960s and 1970s America had a large and growing population of eighteen year olds courtesy of the GI Generation.
The 18 yr age for the Vietnam Draft was to get the Baby Boomer bubble where there were a lot of young men to kill off.
Interestingly, the birth rate in the US started it's precipitous decline in '63 even though married men with children could be deferred. It rapidly dropped to the current below 2 children by 1980 that we oscillate around today.
Wars are tricky these days as if you kill off your young men, you die as a country/people since the birth rate has been low.
Peter Zeihan has pointed out Russia has to attack now, they've got a bare 10 years before they won't have the bodies to push their borders to what the see as defensible. And after Ukraine, Russia has to get to the Vistula in Poland (Warsaw) as well as the Baltics and Romania. And that means direct combat with NATO, then at least on nuke will fly.
wildswan said...
The Ukraine is caught between the West and Russia. It wants to go West, to clean up corruption..
i think you mean.. to clean up WITH its corruption.
The corrupt parts of the Ukraine are the parts wanting to join Biden
wildswan Also said..
With US and NATO help, Ukraine was able to modernize its Army enough to resist Russia's attack
don't you mean;
enough to precipitate Russia's attack? Would Russia have attacked, if the Ukraine's army wasn't So Big?
Asking Bing Chat, we find
"During the Vietnam War, the average age of American troops who served in Vietnam was nineteen years old. This is in contrast to the average age of twenty-six for U.S. soldiers during World War II. However, there is a common myth that the average age of infantrymen (specifically those with Military Occupational Specialty 11B) in Vietnam was nineteen years old. In reality, the average age of infantrymen serving in Vietnam was twenty-two years old. None of the enlisted grades had an average age of less than twenty."
The fist statement is from looking at what everyone always says.
The second statement is from looking at the average ages of those killed in action.
To me this demonstrates that the 26th Amendment was premised on a lie (and was probably a deep state op against Nixon). We are still paying the price for that mistake.
What’s going on is that this is Biden’s war and any question about it are out of line.
The U.S. actually runs afoul of advocacy groups for allowing young people to enlist at 18, or 17 with parental consent.
We show up on "countries that allow child soldiers" lists and are considered horrifically exploitative -- I think in part to provide cover to countries using actual children as soldiers, but yeah, a lot of countries think age 18 is too young for the military.
(I don't, but I live in the midwest and we consider military a legit career path for kids who want to learn skills and don't like sitting still all day)
Original Mike --
On the ranch, I believe we had one bull for every 15 cows.
"Dr. Strangelove" came to a similar conclusion:
General "Buck" Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?
Dr. Strangelove: Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious... service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.
Ambassador de Sadesky: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.
World Jewish population is still a million lower than it was in 1939.
Outside of Israel and the Hasidic/Haredi communities in the West, Jewish women are at the vanguard of the trend among white liberals to voluntarily go extinct. A third or more of today's young Jewish women will never bear a child, and of those who do, a solid majority will have only one or two.
I’d rather have Tom Brady than Timothee Chalamet in a draft.
LeBron is still a top 5 NBA player at age 39. He trounces the 20 year olds.
Ukraine’s problem is that their 40 year olds aren’t particularly athletic. Neither are their 20 year olds.
American soldiers during WW2 were also mid to late 20s. Teenage boys are pretty much worthless. It's not surprising that a country at war isn't using them as soldiers.
With regard to the prospects for a civil war here in America, I've always been skeptical of those who laugh at the notion of overweight old white men being able to take on the likes of Antifa and BLM. It's true that they would be at a disadvantage against an urban mob in hand to hand combat, but I don't think that is the war that would end up being fought in this scenario.
Instead I foresee twenty million John Hinsons choosing when to snipe from afar with their hunting rifles, making the suburban and rural parts of the country completely ungovernable, and resulting in famine and power disruptions in the urban areas.
"Ole Jack" Hinson was a Tennessee farmer who was in his late 50's when his sons were executed and mutilated by a Union Army patrol. He went on a single-handed rampage of revenge with a muzzle-loading Kentucky long rifle, killing at least 36 and perhaps over 100 Union soldiers over the next 3 years.
Helicopters, drones, and infrared imaging would make the job of a solo sniper harder today, but on the other hand, there has never been a citizenry so well armed with modern weaponry as we are. I know guys in the precision rifle shooting community who consider a 500-yard shot to be child's play, and compete at distances of a mile or more. The guns are frequently suppressed nowadays, too, making it much more difficult to tell where the gunfire is coming from.
A mob of urban youths can set a lot of fires and use pistols to terrorize their immediate neighbors with wild gunplay, but the instant they tried to bring such hijinks to the suburbs, they would be cut down from a thousand yards away without ever seeing the man who shot them, or even hearing the gunshot.
This is one of the conflicts between Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy which led to Zaluzhnyi's firing.
You can't help but wonder if the lifeline the west has extended to Ukraine has warped their strategic thinking and planning.
The fact that the Russians don't seem to have any issues with occupying the territory with the relatively small numbers they have, is a massive problem.
Speaking of the Comstock Act…
They're gonna have to introduce conscription
They're gonna have to take away my prescription
-The Clash
A socially advocated abortion policy would progressively end the ethnic Spring in Ukraine. #NetZero
These are terrible demographics for waging a war. Or maybe it's because both sides are using the older ones that they don't mind waging one.
Hassayamper said...
"Instead I foresee twenty million John Hinsons choosing when to snipe from afar with their hunting rifles, making the suburban and rural parts of the country completely ungovernable, and resulting in famine and power disruptions in the urban areas."
Don't need to be 1000 yards. Even fancy military radar and heat sensing equipment can be defeated by Styrofoam , housing insulation boards, and camo netting... they won't see you on any wavelength. And inside buildings you can shoot through open windows and not make much of a sound outside.
And don't need to hit at 1000 yards. Any good AR with an optic can make chest hits at 500 with not much difficulty (and real good deer rifles can go farther.)
I see lots of ARs in pawn shops here in Texas. LOTS of them!
Remember when we didn’t have to talk about Ukraine or Biden at all seriously?
That was only 5 years ago…
They were expendable because they'd already performed their most important duty.
OTOH, in one of the Ford westerns, John Wayne sends the married men back to the fort before chasing the Injuns. But the Spartans had a long-standing demographic problem, too, the main reason their entire society didn't long outlive the Athenian empire they defeated.
My father, a spoiled only child, turned 18 in Oct '45 and was soon drafted despite being in college. His best friend was already a Navy corpsman. My grandmother never spoke of it (the friend did), but I know she was glad the Bomb was dropped. Dad spent 3 days at Fort Bragg for a pre-induction physical and decided the Navy couldn't be worse, so he got an appointment to Annapolis. The Korean War started the same month he graduated, but he never got near it, though his ship operated in the Mekong delta in '69. He got a Bronze Star out of it (for not screwing up, he said), so I guess they were in a little danger. My brother and I were too thin and too blind, so a military stint was never on the table.
If Trump is allowed to win, I sure hope he will end this slaughter.
gilbar said...
don't you mean;
enough to precipitate Russia's attack? Would Russia have attacked, if the Ukraine's army wasn't So Big?
Russia doesn't care how big Ukraine's army is as long as Ukraine isn't a part of NATO.
It was Biden trying to add Ukraine to NATO that started this war.
Why do people have the idea that Young Americans weren't getting killed in WW II. The median age of navy and marine corp dead in WW II was 22 years old. 80 percent were under the age of 25.
The army demanded the draft age be lowered to 18 in 1942 because it wanted young men in ground forces. If you were over 30 they didn't want you as a navigator, bombidier or pilot. Or in the infantry. Bob Dole was wounded in combat at 22. Bush was a naval aviator at 19. Reagan wanted to go overseas and was deemed "too old" at 31. Commmander Flukey "the old man" and one of the most successful sub commanders was 31. THe commander of easy company "Band of Brothers" was 26 in 1944.
And so on. You had plenty of men in their 30s but they weren't a lot of them flying B-17s, jumping into Normandy or crewing subs and destroyers.
And no I can't care that your grandfather stormed Omaha Beach at age 62 with a cane and a set of dentures, I'm talking averages.
I'm always amazed at how callous and indifferent americans are. Hey, so what if we wasted 200 billion dollars on a useless war. We're just rolling in dough and the USA has money to burn. Not like we can use that 200 billion for something good. Like securing our own border. OR if you're a libtard think of how many FREE abortions we could give women for 200 billion. Why we could send 200 million women a $1000 lifetime "free abortion" cerficate.
And Hey, so what if Zelensky is a dictator and dragging Ukrainians off the street to go fight. Or if they protest, throwing them in jail. Gotta kill those Ruskkies as Miss Lindsey said. Anyway, this stupid bloody pointless war wil soon be over, since Ukraine is running out of men and time. And so, the border will be adjusted, and we can all go back to cheering Genocide in Gaza.
I'm always amazed at how callous and indifferent americans are. Hey, so what if we wasted 200 billion dollars on a useless war. We're just rolling in dough and the USA has money to burn. Not like we can use that 200 billion for something good. Like securing our own border. OR if you're a libtard think of how many FREE abortions we could give women for 200 billion. Why we could send 200 million women a $1000 lifetime "free abortion" cerficate.
And Hey, so what if Zelensky is a dictator and dragging Ukrainians off the street to go fight. Or if they protest, throwing them in jail. Gotta kill those Ruskkies as Miss Lindsey said. Anyway, this stupid bloody pointless war wil soon be over, since Ukraine is running out of men and time. And so, the border will be adjusted, and we can all go back to cheering Genocide in Gaza.
How about all of the idiot lefty Americans with Ukraine flags festooned everywhere go and enlist and fight for your hero Zelensky.
He'd be happy to have you...
They're still fighting Stalin's genocide against them, almost a century later
As some strategist mentioned.
Putin didn't have an exit strategy when Ukraine decided to defend themselves. Putin has a double down strategey. As long a sUkraine defends itself it is unlikely Putin will succeed befor one of his oligarcs decide to sweeten his cheerios.
If it weren't for Biden we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Moscow’s military success of late has added pressure to the government in Kyiv, which this week lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 amid losses on the front lines. Ukraine is still hoping for a giant infusion of American aid still held up in Congress. House Speaker Mike Johnson has so far refused to call that national security supplemental for a vote.
In the meantime, the Ukraine Army goes to battle with reduced rifle shells on their belts and severely reduced support from artillery, air cover, and armored vehicles. Our classy Republican Speaker does a Christian interpretation of "war is hell" and he'd be damned if he ever crossed Trump.
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