Screen shot from Real Clear Politics.Here's the Electoral College interactive map, where I generated the numbers used in my post title.
The demonization of Trump has not worked for Democrats. I think Glenn Greenwald put it aptly (reacting to the polls I've displayed above):
"The more Trump is indicted, the more he rises in the polls. That correlation doesn't prove causation, but what it does prove is that most Americans have so much distrust in the justice system and DOJ that even felony indictments don't undermine Trump's standing with the public."
My advice, not that I think Democrats would or even could follow it: Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues. Show us that you deserve the power you seek.
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78 comments:
Normal people know what they have witnessed and been thru.
They see the corrupt media... the tentacles reach all the way into late-night TV programming.
NBC is Putin-esque - and the normals understand it.
If we didn't have mail in ballots, Trump would win at least 45 states.
Democrats have lies. That's it.
The current admin has an almost perfect record of failed policies, illegal actions and authoritarian actions. They have no standing to attack anyone.
In the electoral university, some people call it the Supreme Court, the vote is 4 votes for Biden and 4 for Trump with one toss up.
Inflation is what it is.
Everyone even leftwing normal people hate mass migration when it lands in their own backyard. It's only fun when you can virtue signal from afar, but those days are clearly ending.
The foreign policy adults in the room are now actively involved in two global conflicts, one of which is becoming obvious even to the most starry eyed is going to be a catastrophic loss, and the other bleeds our political capital with most of the world. And between now and next November there's every chance Taiwan, Niger, Guyana/Venezuela pop off, which in turn lowers the point at which someone else might have a crack at their neighbor, which in turn lowers the point...
If the Democrats thought they could make a winning argument on their record of governance, they would at least give it a crack. But they can't. The best I can give them on this front is that there's no real indication that the GOP wouldn't continue most of the same policies.
…that argue on the merits thing, that’s the rub. The Democrats policies are profoundly unpopular with the electorate and they know it. Hence the abandonment of an offensive strategy and relying wholly on defense and…special teams.
"My advice, not that I think Democrats would or even could follow it: Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues. Show us that you deserve the power you seek. "
Let's start with the southern border.
I'm no Trump super-fan... he is 77 years old and steps on his dick a lot... but he is far superior to all corrupt leftwing dictators in-waiting. I sure hope he deports all of Biden's illegal entrants. (hope - but understand he won't)
I would be delighted if Trump won again just to witness democrat loyalists who buy into the left's lies - soil their woke DEI panties.
Watching NBC melt down will be especially delicious.
People remember that life was good for the 3 years prior to the Chi Com get Democrats elected virus showed up.
Show us that you deserve the power you seek.
LOL. Good one.
Bidenomics! Bidenocracy! Bidengreen! Bidenfamilyvalues! Bidenbortion! Talk about merits? We got your merits.
"Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues."
LOL.
Like the merits of open borders, or endless billions for Ukraine, or regulatory overkill, or massive green graft, or sorta-coddling Xi, or record debt?
And where does Trump stand on the "issues" at this point anyway, apart from the issue of the prog persecutions? More importantly, how will he handle them better than than in round 1--starting at the border?
The deeper problem is the public: reducing spending is mean, expelling migrants is mean, limiting abortion is mean, so nothing much can be done.
Show us that you deserve the power you seek.
Yikes. Not bad advice, but NOBODY deserves the kind of power they are seeking.
Hi Ann,
Your top link to Real Clear Politics goes to ....
"A five-point plan to save Harvard from itself"
Trump +1 = don't hold out hope that will be sustained.
That Biden isn't being pushed out - is very telling. The corrupt left are very secure and confident.
ugh - the corrupt American left make me sick.
They cannot run Biden. Everybody still breathing knows this. The question is...who will be substituted?
I thought it was folly to see people mention Michelle Obama previously. At this point, I think the Dems just might be that desperate. And Lord knows, they want more Obama. They cannot get enough of Him.
Interesting how little difference the third-party candidates make to Trump's lead. Contrary to most expectations, they take about equally from Trump and Biden.
Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues. Show us that you deserve the power you seek.
@Althouse, we voters already know what Democrats would do with the power they seek. They will try to solve difficult social problems by throwing money at them, making sure to collect their “fair share” of the graft and corruption opportunities this creates. They will write counterproductive federal regulations that will make the problems worse. They will enlarge existing agencies or create new ones strictly to create no-show jobs and sinecures for the lazy and incompetent children of the well-connected. Anyone who believes Democrats are about anything other than graft and corruption and making obscenely rich people even richer needs another dose or two of a nootropic drug.
They deserve our ridicule and scorn. They are pathetic.
In interview with Tucker Carlson, ex-Capitol Police Chief reveals that all police except for Secret Service were withdrawn from protecting the White House during the 2020 BLM riots in D.C. Rioters attacked the White House, and Trump had to retreat to a bunker. An assassination attempt. Chief doesn’t know who was responsible for leaving Trump naked, but he suspects D.C. Mayor, Muriel Bowser.
The Chief also lays out in detail how the J6 riots were a setup, and that that setup was directed by Pelosi.
Nobody deserves the power the government seeks.
"My advice, not that I think Democrats would or even could follow it: Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues."
Hahaha. So today's theme is comedy and politics?
Abortion, immigrants, war. Those will get people to vote. But ONLY counting the harvest of mail in ballots is what matters in 2024.
More importantly how do the possums who have given shambling most everything he wanted vote
We are living in a fascist dictatorship...
While, it's TRUE, that a majority of actual voters strongly prefer Trump; that is irrelevant.
it's Not the votes that count.. it's WHO COUNTS THE VOTES
"More of the Same or the Insurrectionist"
What a choice.
Shouting Thomas said...
"In interview with Tucker Carlson, ex-Capitol Police Chief reveals that all police except for Secret Service were withdrawn from protecting the White House during the 2020 BLM riots in D.C. Rioters attacked the White House, and Trump had to retreat to a bunker. An assassination attempt. Chief doesn’t know who was responsible for leaving Trump naked, but he suspects D.C. Mayor, Muriel Bowser."
Curious things happened in D.C. back in 2016. About a month after Seth Rich was murdered, Cathy Lanier, Chief of Police, announced her retirement after 26 years of distinguished service, to work with the NFL. Her replacement? Peter Newsham, and a few others since then. Lanier was the public face of the Department before her departure and is the longest serving Chief in its history.
What Big Mike said at 9.22. ^^^^^^^
Issues are the weak spot for Democrats. Fraud is more their style.
There's a lot of +2's, +3's and +4's on that map.
Recent history shows that that's not enough.
Yes - debate the issues. And rescind the ridiculous indictments. 75 million people voted for Trump in 2020. The politically sourced Indictments can’t stop that level of support. They’re literally fools’ errands.
As I wrote the other day- these polls have a purpose- to shove Biden out the door of the primaries.
Look, If Trump were to win Michigan by 4 points, Trump will also win Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, and New Mexico. And he would have a chance to win New Jersey. You would be looking at 400+ electoral votes.
If the election were held tomorrow, under the same rules as in 2020, Biden would win with the mail-in-vote fraud being the decisive factor once again. What the Democrats want, however, is the sweep of the House and Senate, and their worry is that given the playing field, Biden's coattails would be non-existent. This is why they want him out of the race.
Fight on the merits of the issues? That's the tried and true strategy of every political loser throughout history.
They cannot run Biden. Everybody still breathing knows this. The question is...who will be substituted?
This is what's keeping Democrats from losing their minds.
What happens next year if they realize the cavalry isn't coming?
Fighting Trump on substance, at this point, would reveal that the only substance they've got is identity politics and nonstop deficit spending to buy votes. It would also open the door to policy debate on the Republican side. Better to let Trump use up all the oxygen in the room dealing with frivolous legal challenges.
Trump's current bump will fade as Trump fatigue sets in.
Probably by March of 2024 we will see what else they have up their sleeve to steal another election. If you look back to COVID in March of 2020 you can see it. I saw it coming.
Right now it is a multi-pronged lawfare attack. But there will be more. It may be physical.
Show us that you deserve the power you seek.
They are not interested in what they "deserve". Only the retention of power and control. Democrats and the GOPe already demonstrated that in 2020 and 2022. Follow the trajectory.
The Obamas are too busy being rich celebs to ever consider running for office again.
Hillary?
Show us that you deserve the power you seek.
OK, that line just cost me a very nice keyboard!
None of them deserve the power they seek. None of them deserve the power that the Federal government should actually possess (which is MUCH less than it currently does).
Out of ALL the people in government that don't deserve power, those that currently have it are absolutely the ones that should be kept as far from it as passible.
Stealing votes and cheating is way easier than a debate on the merits.
The plan is that Joe will make a miserable showing in NH and SC. Dean Phillips and Bobby write-ins will be huge.
Joe will drop out. Mark Cuban or Gavin Newsom comes in as the savior. Dems win.
I think Cuban will be the Dem nominee.
They can’t.
I can't muster any sympathy any more for those in 226-land....
That Biden isn't being pushed out - is very telling. The corrupt left are very secure and confident.
Be patient. They will wait until the DNC Nominating Convention for reasons I've articulated here before (the Kamala Problem foremost among them). Their preferred timing is best explained by recalling the Toricelli Option. Dems are nervous, but they have a plan.
Chief doesn’t know who was responsible for leaving Trump naked, but he suspects D.C. Mayor, Muriel Bowser.
Bullshit. He knows it was assistant commander Yogananda Pittman, the same "intelligence" supervisor who did not relay HSA and FBI concerns about J6 to the chief of police.
Are we still play acting like Biden will be the candidate Trump faces? Stay gold, Ponyboys. Trump will get creamed by someone who is not Biden and everyone will cry how unfairly he was treated. The Matrix has run out of ideas. This is so predictable.
When the House impeachment probe exposes Hunter and "Big Daddy's" crimes next year, MILLIONS MORE illegals pour past the border, inflation kicks up more, recession comes, and you will see this RealPolitics poll shift farther and farther to Trumps's side.
Trump will win by a landslide unless Biden quits the race and the Democrats come up with something better than Hillary.
And I don't think 'Big Daddy' is gonna do that. He has to 'save' Hunter and himself if he can via pardon.
Don't get cocky...
'Joe will drop out. Mark Cuban or Gavin Newsom comes in as the savior. Dems win.'
Two white guys shitting on Kamala?
Pull the other one...
Let's see--the electoral vote count (assuming honest elections and no hanky panky at the polls or dirty work at the crossroads) stands at 312 to 226? If the Democrats want to contest the election solely on the merits of the issues, that vote will skew towards 412 to 126. Just saying.
Neither party today is worth that warm bucket of (something) that John Nance Garner talked about. But the policies of the Bad Orange Man seem to be the best thing that's on offer.
I can't agree with Greenwald. I think many, hopefully most, Americans see the element of desperate authoritarianism in the selective political prosecution of Trump. It's frightening.
It brings to life his old slogan that he should resurrect: "They're not after me. They're after you. I'm just in the way."
It has never been more apt!
Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues.
They can't. They're like a lawyer who can't argue the law or the facts, and isn't even that good at pounding on the table.
In 2020 Biden hid in his basement. The idea was to focus on Trump hatred and imply that Biden would be better. Seemed to have worked.
Now we all know Biden is worse, not better, so the Dems are left without a campaign strategy.
Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues.
What would that look like?
Argue for an open border
Argue against negotiating a settlement in Ukraine
Argue for more homeless camps in cities
Argue to give China more trade advantages
Argue for high natural gas and oil prices
Black Students Are Being Trained to Think They Can’t Handle Discomfort.
By college, Black students have already been trained, and colleges are just maintaining the illusion. Colleges wish to kick the can down the road, and let the real world deliver the bad news.
Colleges are not doing Black students any favors by not preparing them to succeed in life.
Oh, that is a very pretty picture.
Anyone not supporting trump IS supporting the democrat parties use of the DOJ to attack and imprision their political opponents. PERIOD.
The republicans runnning against trump will never get my 67 year old always republican vote.
“If the election were held tomorrow, under the same rules as in 2020, Biden would win with the mail-in-vote fraud being the decisive factor once again. What the Democrats want, however, is the sweep of the House and Senate, and their worry is that given the playing field, Biden's coattails would be non-existent. This is why they want him out of the race.”
And notably, they wouldn’t pick up Senate seats, as they did through such fraud. Three, maybe four, maybe even five of their Senate seats, giving them a majority there, were won in the same big cities (Phoenix, Atlanta, Philidelphia) that FJB won through very open election fraud. This time around, the Dems are going to be defending Senate seats in very unfriendly territory - e.g. MT, WV. Of course, it is unlikely that any Dem Presidential candidate could win those seats, and esp not Michelle, Crooked Hillary, or Gavin Newsome. Maybe though Sec Pete Buttplug… or Lurch Kerry.
Qassem Soleimani, would like to weigh in here
Qassem Soleimani, would like to weigh in here
“Joe will drop out. Mark Cuban or Gavin Newsom comes in as the savior. Dems win.”
Maybe with Cuban. Newsom was shown to be a very pretty empty suit in his debate with DeSantis. Outside of the deepest blue parts of the country, no one wants to Californicate their state. His weakness (besides being vapid) is that he has a record, and it is horrific. And set to get even worse this coming year, as the bottom has fallen out of CA revenues, while Newsom insists on paying Reparations to Blacks, welfare to illegals, building the Bullet Train To Nowhere, etc, while imposing mask mandates, as well as proscribed burns in the LA Basin, mandating the elimination of IC vehicles,while the infrastructure to support his EV mandates continue to crumble. There are likely to be electricity brownouts and blackouts, along with wildfires this summer and fall, right before the election, all of which he made worse with his feckless administration of his state.
Dems appear to do best with Presidential candidates without visible records (Carter, Clinton, Obama). Newsome has one, and it would likely repel an awful lot of voters.
It’s really hard to believe given the full court press of the press against him over the last 7 years.
Isn’t anyone listening?
I went to the map and all the states that were not already blue but had what I felt were questionable election results from 2020, I turned blue and got Dems 303, Repubs 235.
Meh, what do I know. Probably not a lot.
D.D. Driver says “Are we still play acting like Biden will be the candidate Trump faces? Stay gold, Ponyboys. Trump will get creamed by someone who is not Biden . . .”
It doesn’t matter anymore who the opposing candidate is or what the issues are.
A vote for Trump is now (even more than before) a protest vote against “the establishment elites controlling our country.” It’s becoming clear to voters is that “the establishment elites” view Trump as their enemy. And the ”enemy of my enemy” - that’s Trump. And voters know that. This is why DeSantis and Ramaswamy and Newsom and Cuban won’t make any headway: they’re not viewed as enemies by “the establishment elites”.
The 2024 vote is going to be a protest vote and no other candidate will be able to capture that vote.
The “ruling elites” think they have 2 winning issues. One is abortion. The other one is - “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know”. We’ll see if that strategy works.
Trump 2024
Based on the polling, it looks like an easy Biden victory. Trump needs to be +10 to win.
Actually, knowing he has the California black vote securely ensconced one the Democrat plantation, Newsome rejected reparations. Doesn’t need ‘em.
They could have contested Trump via policy choices in 2016, instead we got Russia Gate, Errant Electoral College Electors and the ambush of Mike Flynn, to name just a few Democrat hate crimes. Democrats are the party of the Big Lie, election fraud and neobarbarism.
" the J6 riots were a setup, and that that setup was directed by Pelosi."
There's as clip of her watching tv saying "this is the part I've been waiting for."
lgv said...
“Based on the polling, it looks like an easy Biden victory. Trump needs to be +10 to win.”
Rasmussen poll Dec 6 to 10: Biden 38% Trump 48%
It doesn’t matter anymore who the opposing candidate is or what the issues are.
Stay gold, Ponyboy. How many elections does Trump have to fuck up before you guys "get it." How many more Dr. Oz's and Hershel Walker's do you need? The reason the GOP is impotent and doesn't have the Senate is because of Trump. You are also discounting the 200 stupid fucking things that he will say and do between now and the election that will remind voters why they hated him. He can't help himself. He will fuck it up and I will laugh at you.
I think the Democrats are at the part of the old sci-fi movie where they yell "Bullets won't stop it!"
There are an awful lot of people out there who are well and truly pissed off.
I am one of them.
It's time for DD to get in on that awesome high density "migrant" housing in his spare rooms. Maybe he can hook into some of those sweet dollars the NGOs are pulling in.
Still time to set up a Christmas/rape tree in the front yard to virtue signal to the neighbors.
Tis the season!
Yancy said..
"Look, If Trump were to win Michigan by 4 points, Trump will also win Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, and New Mexico. And he would have a chance to win New Jersey. You would be looking at 400+ electoral votes."
Trump will not win Colorado under any circumstances.
D. D. Driver said: “You are also discounting the 200 stupid fucking things that he will say and do between now and the election”
Will he do these fucking stupid things: give $6,000,000,000 to Iran? How about $75,000,000,000 to fund the war in Ukraine? Or the yearly $100,000,000 to Gaza?
Who's gonna force Biden out of the Whitehouse if Trump wins?
Nobody, that's who.
My advice, not that I think Democrats would or even could follow it: Fight Trump on the substantive merits of the issues. Show us that you deserve the power you seek.
I am not a Democrat, just a conservative who could never join a fascist government, but I am confused by your belief that Donald Trump has logically presented any important issues that can be judged. He just rants childish buzzwords, attacks anybody and everybody from both parties on any subject, and raises money by grifting his supporters every day to get political donations that will go directly to the Orange Jesus. His lying and cheating have deluded unquestioning followers. Next, if Trump wins, the demented Master could offer up free Kool-Aid with cyanide to MAGAts everywhere on his way to dictatorship. And just as soon as the idiot learns to read with understanding he will likely begin by reading Two Corinthians.
Polls are shit
The psyop is working
"Next, if Trump wins, the demented Master could offer up free Kool-Aid with cyanide to MAGAts everywhere on his way to dictatorship."
Yeah yeah! Jabfly's got him pegged!
Perhaps Jabfly prefers Joementia's open border "surge" to Trump admin Remain in Mexico.
Another worthy candidate for high density bunk beds in his living room.
Wow, what a GREAT prediction, just like Nov. 2024 actuals.
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