Althouse: Sunrise

July 2, 2023

Sunrise — 5:14.

12 comments:

Original Mike said...: I've long been aware of Michael Crichton's CalTech Michelin Lecture lecture, but have never taken the time to read it. Well, well worth your time if you haven't. Wide ranging critique of the inappropriate use of "consensus" as a method for "doing science", with many examples of past consensus face plants (nuclear winter, plate tectonics, many medical examples (including extended treatment of the fraudulent science surrounding second hand smoke).

"Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough. Nobody says the consensus of scientists agrees that E = mc^2 … It would never occur to anyone to speak that way."

"Consensus is the business of politics", which is a theme Judith Curry makes in her recent book.; 7/2/23, 1:18 PM
tim in vermont said...: It's kind of funny how the New Yorker, famous for its rigorous editing, deliberately mis-transcribed a quote from Mearsheimer in such a way as to make it seem like he was utterly rejecting his own argument.

How they wrote down his words:

We were going to blame the Russians. So we invented this story that Russia was bent on aggression in Eastern Europe. Putin is interested in creating a greater Russia, or maybe even re-creating the Soviet Union.

if you have listened to Mearsheimer speak, you know that he does not believe that, but this transcription allowed people to take that one clause out of the context of the rest of his sentence without an ellipsis.

How it *should* have been taken down to be consistent with what the interviewee actually thinks he said:

We were going to blame the Russians, so we invented this story that Russia was bent on aggression in Eastern Europe, Putin is interested in creating a greater Russia, or maybe even re-creating the Soviet Union. This transcription flows, the other transcription is awkward; "maybe even" clearly sets off the last point of a list, the most extreme of the three examples.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine

The bolded part above, which the New Yorker took out of context by making it a declarative sentence of its own, was just a part of the list of things that, according to Mearsheimer, we put into the invented story. It just happened to fit into the neocon/Biden Administration framing of a justification for getting involved in the war.

It's subtle brainwashing, and it's really hard to grasp it's being done to you when you trust an outlet that has built its reputation for generations, but then sells out overnight to a political regime. A similar thing happened to The Guardian, which has been taken over by MI-6.; 7/2/23, 1:44 PM
rhhardin said...: The Audubon are German bird highways in the sky.; 7/2/23, 1:49 PM
Original Mike said...: Volkswagen: “Strong Customer Reluctance” in the Electric Vehicle Sector, causing VW to scale back production.

Don't people see their awesomeness?; 7/2/23, 2:41 PM
Original Mike said...: Volkswagen: “Strong Customer Reluctance” in the Electric Vehicle Sector

I am familiar with the road between Goondiwindi and Dubbo that the author refers to. Wouldn't want to be driving that in an EV.; 7/2/23, 2:45 PM
ngtrains said...: Crichton wrote a several science "fantasies' but he was a serious person, and there were a lot of facts behind stories. I've read several, and i think he used fiction to reveal hit thoughts that were really serious. 'State of Fear' was an excellent example. He used warming trends as basis of a story that gathered a group of politicians, journalists and attys that explains how their thoughts and deeds keep us constantly agitated and in a state of fear at all times.; 7/2/23, 3:16 PM
Lem the artificially intelligent said...: Consensus is that the vaccination of children works. No study necessary. As asserted by RFK Jr.

I don’t know if it’s true that children of the Amish have never been vaccinated and that they don’t have any of the allergic problems assailing the rest of the children in the country. This is huge. It should be huge.

Something is rotten in Denmark alright.; 7/2/23, 4:25 PM
Josephbleau said...: I saw the dash cam video of Strayan right hand driving. I wish I had a few hours of it. I think watching it before going to Straya or the uk would help drivers adapt better.; 7/2/23, 4:30 PM
rhhardin said...: If you can hear large jets going over, there a high pitched rumble that drops in frequency until the plane is over you and then rises in frequency again as it gets further away. When the plane is overhead, squat down. The pitch goes back to high frequency.

There's a quasi-simple reason for it but it's an interesting effect to show somebody.; 7/2/23, 4:50 PM
rhhardin said...: Australian names
Tubbo Station
John Williamson; 7/2/23, 5:33 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: He Goes There...
https://thefederalist.com/2023/06/29/of-course-ketanji-brown-jackson-supports-affirmative-action-its-the-only-reason-shes-a-supreme-court-justice/; 7/2/23, 6:29 PM
gadfly said...: Lem the misspeller said...
Consensus is that the vaccination of children works.

I don’t know if it’s true that children of the Amish have never been vaccinated. . .

The widespread reluctance to get vaccinated in Amish communities is not surprising to West Virginia University sociologist Rachel Stein, who studies Amish populations across the country.

"We as non-Amish are more on board with preventative medicine," Stein says. "They certainly don't have that mindset that we need to do things to stop this from happening."

The Amish teach children in their own one-room schools and when the likes of whopping cough or measles visit, everybody gets infected and gains natural bacterial protection - just like back in the good old days.; 7/2/23, 11:06 PM