३ फेब्रुवारी, २०२३
"The labor market shattered expectations in January, as the economy added 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.4 percent, a low not seen since May 1969..."
"... according to data released Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job gains had been steadily dropping for months, but January’s stunning job growth reflects unexpected tightness in the labor market, even amid fears of a looming recession as high profile layoffs spread across the tech industry. The Federal Reserve has been in an all-out effort to lower inflation, hoping it can manage to hoist interest rates without slowing the economy so much that it undercuts strength in the labor market. But that task appears much more difficult to pull off...."
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१०६ टिप्पण्या:
At last! PROOF that "Donny the Trump" is actually at work at his job as "still President under cover!" so many of his acolytes insist he is.
The economy was devastated on purpose with the Chi Com virus. Part of the plan - Giving Democrat Biden the credit when people start re-entering the work force.
Media in full- Biden gush these days.
unemployment is at (A SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*) 3.4%
So.. serious questions.. How many people are working? How many people QUIT looking?
HECK! what is the NON adjusted rate?
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* a scam, to alter the numbers to make them look good or bad, depending what you want
When will the "revised" numbers be coming out? No one believes anything reported in the media or put out by either party anymore. They are all dishonest, and I suspect it was always this way. We are just now becoming aware of the extent of the lies. In this respect, the likes of Robert Cook and Glen Greenwald have had a better understanding of reality than I have for many years. I kind of hate to admit that!
Why do they even try to keep cat turds covered?
So people are going back to work after leaving the job market after Covid. Cool.
This is a lie. Complete and utter bullshit.
The BLS is fabricating these "results" based off of surveys.
This will quietly be "corrected" down in a few months just as every single jobs report for the last year has been "corrected" down.
There were massive layoffs this month and the Job market is not good. Housing starts are way down. Retail is crashing. The Fed has called out the BLS repeatedly for overstating job numbers.
This report and this story are just pure fabricated propaganda by the regime.
They’ll revise the numbers in several months to something that is closer to The Truth. It’s how these folks roll.
Robert Cook: "At last! PROOF that "Donny the Trump" is actually at work at his job as "still President under cover!" so many of his acolytes insist he is."
LOL
Its always easy to fool the commie apparatchiks.
We haven't even returned to pre-pandemic labor participation rates in terms of either percentage of population or raw number of employed people.
The current unemployment rate does not count those who have simply given up and completely dropped out of the labor market. They are still there, they just don't show up in the numbers.
To the left, that's a huge success! Sort of like how people got "disappeared" in the Soviet Union and became "non-persons".
Lefties are always big on having lots and lots of non-persons.
Old and slow: "When will the "revised" numbers be coming out? No one believes anything reported in the media or put out by either party anymore."
The "revisions" (corrected earlier lies to slightly lesser lies) in this administration always come about 60 days later.
Achilles: "The Fed has called out the BLS repeatedly for overstating job numbers."
The Fed is getting tired of the lies coming of out the BLS because it makes the Fed's actions seem out of place and the Fed is tired of it.
Particularly, as noted above, the BLS always has to come out later with big revisions which the media never cover.
But remember, its always enough to fool the Robert Cook's of the world. And easily. Almost effortlessly. As though Cookie wants them to lie to him. Perhaps needs them to lie to him?
I’m sure all the lay-offs a Google, Amazon, and Meta are listed just below the fold
I too am dubious of any information provided by the government. After all, 50 members of the IC assured me that the Hunter Laptop story was Russian disinformation (or at least had all the earmarks of it) and most of the government and the MSM (but I repeat myself) informed me that there was Russian collusion with Trump and that was why he was president. They now tell me that the 2020 election was the fairest most secure ever, even though the 2016 was not. And I'm assured that we are not in a recession, that inflation is transitory, and the the Labor Secretary is good at his job.
Lies. AKA "numbers destined to be adjusted in the future". Nothing BLS puts out is credible, and hasn't been for years.
The corrections are almost always negative in comparison with the Wow-Ain't-We-Doin'-Swell headline numbers.
If you are betting on the flip of a coin, and you call tails.... be especially wary of the guy who comes up heads 15 times in a row.
The media gets all in a sweat about each and every employment statistic because ... they don't have much else to write/broadcast/tweet about.
I prefer charts -- we are a visual species.
Employment–population ratio BLS
If the WaPo, oops, I mean The National Laughingstock, told me it was raining, I'd run to the window to make sure.
Sorry, I'm not playing the "which part of the government is not lying to me" game anymore. These numbers are too easy to manipulate and then get revised significantly months later, the revisions being generally ignored even if they completely undermine the original reports. The media, if they wanted to stop being cheerleaders and actually do journalism, are too economically illiterate to be able to tell if the numbers make sense or not. The government corruption levels are so high that giving anyone the benefit of the doubt is foolish.
It takes a long time to build trust, but it can be lost in an instant.
Apparently it's possible for the job market to be sizzling hot at the same time that our largest and most successful companies (Google, Apple, etc.) are laying off tens of thousands of employees each.
Gilbar: "So.. serious questions.. How many people are working? How many people QUIT looking?
HECK! what is the NON adjusted rate?"
Careful. Questions like that could earn you a visit from the local Commissar.
Robert Cook said...
At last! PROOF that "Donny the Trump" is actually at work at his job as "still President under cover!" so many of his acolytes insist he is.
I know you think this is clever.
It isn't.
You are just kinda dumb.
It is WaPo, so I can't see the article...
Which "Unemployment Rate"? There are at least seven. And how do the calculations for the 3.4% number compare to the calculations used in May 1969?
In previous news: Biden second-quarter job numbers off by 1 million, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank says. I'd say those above with skepticism have reason for it.
Also in the news is the inflation that first didn't exist, then existed but because of supply chain problems left over from covid panic, and then inflation because of Ukraine/Russia war, and just last month WaPo Megan Mcardle was telling us inflation was falling.
"Who's less believable here? China or the U.S.? It's some kind of crazy competition."
No one believes what the government says.
Haven't all these numbers been corrected to actual losses? There's no way this is real
It’s refreshing that the first comment gives credit where it’s actually due.
Nope. I don't believe a damn word since they "overstimated" the jobs a couple of months back by a factor of TEN.
Blogger Achilles said...
This is a lie. Complete and utter bullshit.
In Feb of 2020, just prior to COVID and the lockdowns, we were at 3.5%..and eggs weren't $10 a dozen.
Biden and the Democrats haven't created shit.
Achilles is correct. 2022 jobs numbers were all later corrected. Everything announcement out of the gate is now fabricated. When corrected, people don't pay attention and only remember / believe the first thing they were told.
yep, all those tech workers found work at White Castle
Maybe the shut down homebodies are now deciding food was getting too expensive, so they went back to work.
That’s scriptural. “If anyone will not work, neither shall he eat”. (2Thes$ 3:10.)
We'll see! This is the same BLS that said "one million jobs!" were added in July only to walk that back after a regional Fed analysis showed only 10,000 jobs net had been added. If true this is great news. But with media moving past Truth to emphasize Narrative instead, how would we even know? Sad that we can't trust the good or bad news from our corrupt media overlords. My reaction to this stunning headline is to be cautiously optimistic while maintaining a persistent pessimism. It's the only way forward that ensures my personal sanity day to day.
"Half a million jobs! Whooo hoo!" Let's pray its true and more follow.
Last time they did this it was a huge spike in part time jobs, and a tiny bump in full time jobs. Before that it was all lies that had to be revised down, but it allowed Biden to deny that we were in a recession leading up to the mid-terms, because even though there were two consecutive quarters of negative growth, "look at those jobs numbers, man!"
So, given the Washington Post's history of lying coupled with the Biden Administration's history of lying, especially about jobs numbers, I will wait and see.
You are better off posting from ZeroHedge, who look at these reports with a skeptical eye. So let's see what they have to say about all of the revisions:
... the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that's right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million!
and this:
This is what Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong put it: "The January jobs report showed extremely robust growth, higher than the highest estimate in the Bloomberg survey. If it seems too good to be true, that’s because it is too good to be true — the gain is mostly due to seasonal factors and revisions to past data."
It's a long article, and gets pretty technical, but here it is.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-was-behind-todays-wow-wow-wow-jobs-report
I like the part about it beating the estimates by an eye popping 9 sigma. It's said the the return of Jesus would only be 6 sigma. In other words, it's smoke and mirrors and certainly (or at least as certain as humans can be) wrong.
Baloney! Remember that other report from BLS that missed the mark by what, one million units?
As of the 9:13 comment by Achilles I am far from alone in my healthy skepticism of the BLS number. We've been more than twice burned now, and are more than twice as shy as before. Pretty amazing to have tens of thousands of jobs shed by big tech and gig media and still post a half-million up for the quarter, especially given the news in DEC that companies were not even hiring seasonal workers this year for the Christmas season.
The low unemployment rate reflects fewer people looking for jobs. The regime is trying to put a silver lining on a plugged nickel.
Shattered??!! I don't believe the story.
These measures do not accurately reflect economic activity.
There isn't a single federal government entity that can be trusted. The BLS is all over the place and will be corrected as desired.
Again, this is the chart that tells you the real story. Unemployment doesn't count people who are not looking for work.
It has increased since Covid, but is still not at pre-Covid levels.
Blogger Achilles said...
This is a lie. Complete and utter bullshit.
The BLS is fabricating these "results" based off of surveys.
This will quietly be "corrected" down in a few months just as every single jobs report for the last year has been "corrected" down.
Yup. The BLS is lying. The revisions will come later this year.
"This is how you convert a 2.5 million plunge in jobs into a 517K, market blowout, 9 sigma beat." - Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge got banned from Twitter for being "Russian disinformation" by the Hamilton 68 people, but skeptical and in-depth reporting was the real reason.
The BLS has admitted to lying before. Should be assumed to be lying again. They used to be one of the more honest agencies in DC.
I'm afraid I don't really believe any numbers the government puts out anymore.
https://healthy-skeptic.com/2023/02/02/more-on-the-job-number-follies/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-job-opening-far-lower-reported-department-labor-ubs-finds
If low unemployment is inflationary, doesn't this news imply higher interest rates?
Weren't these the people who told us Joe Biden added a million new jobs, only to take it all back after the midterms? A one million jobs "mistake".
levelsLowest unemployment since .
We can go back to social safety net programs spending to 1969 levels, corrected for inflation.
I have seen many serious analyses that that indicate these numbers are far from honest. Zero Hedge has the best analysis that I have seen. These numbers are a fairy tale.
The 'experts' were off by a huge number...they weren't even close.
How do these people not lose their jobs?
If I was this bad at my job I would have never lasted a month...
It's not entirely a scam: Every January the unadjusted number would be very negative (just as every June and November it would be very positive), so the adjustment tries to indicate whether it's more or less than usual. But it's very imprecise, so it never makes sense to take one month's number too seriously. If they did make it too positive in January, it probably would be more negative in February or March.
But the other thing that's missed is how many of these "jobs" are part-time. Far more than they used to be even as listed, never mind that a lot of full-time "remote" jobs are in fact not really full time. Partly explains why productivity has been in the toilet the last couple of years.
Robert Cook said...
At last! PROOF that "Donny the Trump" is actually at work at his job as "still President under cover!" so many of his acolytes insist he is.
Wasn't it just a month ago BLS had to admit they overcounted more than 1 million "added jobs" last year? And yet, you accept these numbers at face value? No wonder half the women in the Biden administration are women, BLS is doing the counting.
"This is what Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong put it: "The January jobs report showed extremely robust growth, higher than the highest estimate in the Bloomberg survey. If it seems too good to be true, that’s because it is too good to be true — the gain is mostly due to seasonal factors and revisions to past data. The Fed likely won’t place too much weight on this report in formulating policy.' "
mikeski said...
"If the WaPo, oops, I mean The National Laughingstock, told me it was raining, I'd run to the window to make sure."
Well. It is the nations High School Newspaper of Record. And you know who runs high school newspapers? The kids desperate to be popular And it's owned by Mr. Jeff Bezos no less. Whos penis can reach the upper atmosphere.
alanc709: "Wasn't it just a month ago BLS had to admit they overcounted more than 1 million "added jobs" last year? And yet, you accept these numbers at face value? No wonder half the women in the Biden administration are women, BLS is doing the counting."
$5 will get you $10 Cookie doesn't even know the BLS "adjusted" its "added jobs" numbers from last year from over a million to essentially zero.
Remember the good old days when you count on the leftists being actual leftists and not these pro-democratical/Deep State suckups like Cookie is?
"How do these people not lose their jobs?
If I was this bad at my job I would have never lasted a month.."
Agreed. Now do weather forcasters.
Achilles said...
"This will quietly be "corrected" down in a few months just as every single jobs report for the last year has been "corrected" down."
Well all the adjustments were all up in the current report.
It's strange how badly you all need people to be suffering, in order to justify your unchangeable political beliefs.
For you Achilles specifically, your optimism on crypto cannot be shaken by any event or fact, which is pretty much the same thing. The only things that can be true are those that justify what you already believe.
But yes, others are bullshitters, tell us more.
There are lies, damned lies and statistics!
-apologies to Mark Twain.
"The current unemployment rate does not count those who have simply given up and completely dropped out of the labor market. They are still there, they just don't show up in the numbers."
Sure. That's long (if not always) been the case.
"You are just kinda dumb."
Well, as least you and I can talk to each other as equals.
BAZOOM!! TO THE MOON, ALICE!!
"The low unemployment rate reflects fewer people looking for jobs. The regime is trying to put a silver lining on a plugged nickel."
Yes, of course. As addressed above, this has long (or always) been true of every administration. SOP.
The critical question is whether the Fed believes the BLS.
What the Fed does with interest rates going forward should reveal their credulity.
Now we have to wait six months for the real figures.
"Wasn't it just a month ago BLS had to admit they overcounted more than 1 million 'added jobs' last year? And yet, you accept these numbers at face value?"
What makes you believe I believe them? I was just making an opportunistic joke about the MAGA idiots who still think (or thought long past 2020) that Trump was/is still secretly the president, because, after all, Trump was the only magic provider to Americans of lollipops and gold dubloons and puppy dog tails and low unemployment to have been President, like...ever!!
(World Famous Lurker says....)
If this job report was accurate, we'd expect the market to see very big gains today. (Checks the index.) DJIA down today -136.40 as of this posting.
No one except the Robert Cooks of this world believes the US Government (or the media for that matter) any longer. And Robert only trusts it when the news comes from a democrat administration.
I think the missing story is the number of retirees deciding they need to go back to work to supplement their soc. sec. and whatever savings they have, or just to make ends meet. Also the number of people of retirement age who are deciding to just keep working as long as possible, for the same reasons as above.
That said, there will be celebrations at the White House press office and media. And at the end of the 2nd quarter when they revise the first quarter numbers down, it'll get a quick mention and be forgotten.
According to the Zero Hedge links provided above, full time jobs dropped by 10,000 with part time jobs making the jump. Congratulations Biden, you managed to force more Americans to take a second job. Take a victory lap.
The Government surveys the EMPLOYERS for these figures. They have no idea if people have multiple jobs with different companies. Every individual recorded as an employee for more than one employer is double counted. There are more of those people when times are hard, like when there's historically high inflation.
BLS unemployment only counts people who have filed for unemployment. People who retired early, wives who stayed home, those who decided to go homeless, people who are living off savings--none of them count. As someone mentioned, the % of adults working has not reached pre-pandemic levels. To make it worse, lots of people have reduced their hours (not taking overtime).
Haven't believed any data these people put out in decades. These adjustments are similar to the 'Climate Change' hustle adjustments. Wonder if there's a data point they would like to achieve prior to actually telling the public what the real numbers are? Just another bureaucratic hustle by our so-called betters.
Trump was the only magic provider to Americans of lollipops and gold dubloons and puppy dog tails and low unemployment to have been President, like...ever!!
Why would anyone expect a communist to understand economics?
I think we're in that strange grace period where the official numbers being provided on any subject have been so over-tweaked and re-calculated, they are all pretty much straight out deceptions now, and people are starting to absorb the fact that they can't trust any official or believe virtually any story at face value when it comes from a spokesman - but they're not outraged enough to start yelling yet.
At last! PROOF that "Donny the Trump" is actually at work at his job as "still President under cover!" so many of his acolytes insist he is.
I can appreciate the "opportunistic joke" here.
But... remember how Trump's actions and policies had nothing to do with the sharp uptick in the economy and sharp decline in joblessness that immediately followed his election and continued strongly until COVID hit, because he had just "inherited" Obama's late-term burgeoning boom? And remember how Biden couldn't be blamed for the immediate turn to crappy that the economy took when he took office (after something that had every appearance of a recovery in the last couple of quarters of Trump's administration) - an economy that got crappier as his administration wore on over the ensuing two years, despite the lessening of the "COVID emergency" - because he had "inherited" Trump's incipient recession?
Robert Cook, you can be a '60s throwback socially as much as you like, since social stuff is so very hard to qualify and can legitimately (? Well, sort of) be defended as "these intangibles, even if they have significant real costs, are nevertheless of such great value to society that they should be put into place anyway." (I think cost-benefit analysis is always in order, and things we do as a society that cost more than their demonstrable benefit ought to be vanishingly rare, but that's me.) But how can you, or anyone, possibly stay economically socialist? When is that experiment finally over?
Big Mike wins today's "damning with faint praise" award: They used to be one of the more honest agencies in DC.
“Apparently it's possible for the job market to be sizzling hot at the same time that our largest and most successful companies (Google, Apple, etc.) are laying off tens of thousands of employees each.“
With 60 to 90 days of notice, the recent tech layoffs would not count as unemployed yet.
Also: The labor department just updated a whole lot of the methodology and definitions of workers, job seekers, and so on.
There is, of course, no correlation between the increase in jobs and the politics of an upcoming State of the Union. Really. No marlarky!
Also: The labor department just updated a whole lot of the methodology and definitions of workers, job seekers, and so on.
There is, of course, no correlation between the increase in jobs and the politics of an upcoming State of the Union. Really. No marlarky!
"But... remember how Trump's actions and policies had nothing to do with the sharp uptick in the economy and sharp decline in joblessness that immediately followed his election...."
Well...there wasn't a sharp uptick of the economy or decline in joblessness after Trump was elected. The economy did grow and joblessness did decline, but not at sharply greater rates. Trump came into office at a time when the US economy had been and was still growing, after having collapsed at the end of Bush's term. Obama came into office with the economy still collapsing, and he managed to bring about a growth in the economy and reduction in unemployment throughout his eight years in office. As you state in other words, (perhaps being sarcastic), Trump just took the baton in the Presidential relay race and kept running with it, but without racing any faster. Any miraculous improvement to the economy existed only in Trump's (life-long) customary boasting and the willingness of his credulous supporters to take his boasts as holy writ.
Althouse commenters invent a new economic stat, the labor force participation rate. Someone call the Nobel committee.
Cookie: "What makes you believe I believe them?"
LOL
You are just another typical democratical in dime store marxist drag.
The Good, Bad And Ugly
That's great, right?
...
Its not one data point either -- both hours worked and overtime expanded, as did hourly wages. "Restrictive" policy? Where?
There is, however, a fly in the ointment -- the population adjustment is this month, and it was a whopper, throwing cold water on the last year's progress in that the employment:population ratio erased all gains back to last February.
...
After the ADP report it appeared the market expected that there would be confirmation of softening in the labor market and thus "justification" that the Fed's "slowdown" would be confirmed as "policy is working as intended."
Affordability, availability, and shared responsibility (e.g. progressive prices).
It's strange how badly you all need people to be suffering, in order to justify your unchangeable political beliefs.
A leftist just wrote that. Without the slightest hint of irony.
That's the trouble with measuring things digitally. If you set up a digital device to measure the temperature in the basement, you get successive readings like 59, 61, 59, 57, 7453566, 59, 61.
Medians are better than averages.
While the numbers might be technically true, the story they are telling is misleading at best. Tech, banking, law, logistics and others are shedding workers by the tens of thousands. A lot of those folks are still receiving their severance packages now, and so won't hit the unemployment insurance line for a few more months, but it is getting frickin' ugly out there.
The Debt and Equity Markets have been face down in a backyard swimming pool for almost a year now.
While the numbers might be technically true, the story they are telling is misleading at best. Tech, banking, law, logistics and others are shedding workers by the tens of thousands. A lot of those folks are still receiving their severance packages now, and so won't hit the unemployment insurance line for a few more months, but it is getting frickin' ugly out there.
The Debt and Equity Markets have been face down in a backyard swimming pool for almost a year now.
While the numbers might be technically true, the story they are telling is misleading at best. Tech, banking, law, logistics and others are shedding workers by the tens of thousands. A lot of those folks are still receiving their severance packages now, and so won't hit the unemployment insurance line for a few more months, but it is getting frickin' ugly out there.
The Debt and Equity Markets have been face down in a backyard swimming pool for almost a year now.
Daniel12 said...
Achilles said...
"This will quietly be "corrected" down in a few months just as every single jobs report for the last year has been "corrected" down."
Well all the adjustments were all up in the current report.
It's strange how badly you all need people to be suffering, in order to justify your unchangeable political beliefs.
For you Achilles specifically, your optimism on crypto cannot be shaken by any event or fact, which is pretty much the same thing. The only things that can be true are those that justify what you already believe.
But yes, others are bullshitters, tell us more.
Ok.
This is how the BLS corrected the jobs report "Up."
TLDR: Lots of "Jobs" are now being "counted" that were not "counted" before. It is all surveys and bullshit.
Apologies. Zero Hedge goes into some detail here. If you want to actually know what is happening you have to put some effort into it.
Daniel is just a dumb intellectually lazy reader of the wapo and believes what the regime feeds him.
The tech layoffs are miniscule compared to the size of the American economy. They just get all the attention because every journalist knows several of them.
Plus how bad is Meta actually doing? They just did a $40b stock buy back.
to me, the Really Scary thing is: People like Robert Cook (in particular.. Robert Cook),
Think that people like Robert Cook are at least, Minimally Intelligent.
Robert Cook, ACTUALLY THINKS, that the comments he makes here, are winning people to his side..
Robert Cook, ACTUALLY THINKS, that his points make sense..
Robert Cook, ACTUALLY THINKS, that Robert Cook.. Actually Thinks.
There's even a Real Chance that Robert will try to make a come back to this comment..
If so, Robert will think that he was witty and persuasive
Everything that BIden says, may or may not be a lie. Everything the NYT/WaPo writes about BIden IS a lie.
Robert Cook. Or one could actually look at the economic reports from when Trump took office to when he left. Our addled President to the contrary Trump did not leave office with growing inflation. That only occurred after the administration spewed five trillion dollars into the economy. This, as you will recall from your economics classes, was a classic ignition of inflation.
It's all fertilizer.!
well here's the deal. The man in charge is responsible for everything good and bad, that includes Covid deaths and lives, immigration, he Border, Inflation, Crime, War jobs, unemployment etc When history is written no one looks at how the things happened they just look at the final result of the term in office. If you leave and had the worst or best job record in history, you are responsible that's how it's looked at as the boss in charge. Folks want to pick and choose what's good and what's bad and score their points, dont believe it, alternative facts, anything that puts a damper on your personal mindset. Pretty comical actually watching the whining, disbelief, fake news and always a reason why good is bad and bad is good. Like a good handicapper, take the total of your betting capital early in the season and when seasons over either add or subtract the winnings or losings. It's no different anywhere. You'll be looked at on what happened on your watch most people have no clue anyway and just tune in at the end. It's just the way it rolls, Politics is no different. If you don't like or believe the good and you want to make it bad, tell someone who will listen because it just looks like whining a very bad character asset. Cheer up you'll soon be in the box, and will it all be worth it for the self-imposed misery? No one wants to be around miserable people unless they are a glutton for punishment. Sleepy Joe on a roll compared to the guy who left with millions in the hole no matter what the reason, no body cares about the reasons only the final results.
The rules are simple: presidents we like do good things, and presidents we don't like do bad things. Always. (Also, you're a racist.)
"Robert Cook, ACTUALLY THINKS, that the comments he makes here, are winning people to his side...."*
Ha! I certainly don't think I'm "winning" others to my side, and I have never expected I would. That's not why I comment here.
Everybody likes to pick on Robert Cook. I think he's all right. Wronghheaded on economics in my opinion, but that's just like, my opinion man. He is smart and consistent, and interesting, and right about many things. I've got friends and relatives much like him. We disagree on many issues, but that's OK. Cook is a damn sight more interesting and honest than many on here who I am likely to agree with politically.
Achilles said...
This is how the BLS corrected the jobs report "Up."
An Althouse poster actually links to something (happens about once per year) and it turns out to be "a far-right[13] libertarian[18] financial blog and news aggregator". Maybe even a "russian trojan horse". https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse
Mutaman said...
Maybe even a "russian trojan horse".
Is your evidence of that Hamilton 68? After last week's Twitter files, I'm not going to believe a site is Russian unless it's in Cyrillic.
An Althouse poster actually links to something (happens about once per year)
I and others link to things fairly often, but usually only when directly quoting the source or to share something specific. Otherwise, I think the general feeling is, if you want to know more, you're on the internet, do a search. Sorry if you think you should be spoon fed citations for every comment.
Thanks for the kind words, "Old and Slow."
"...one could actually look at the economic reports from when Trump took office to when he left. Our addled President to the contrary Trump did not leave office with growing inflation."
The inflation was a global phenomenon. Whatever Biden did when he came into office cannot be considered the cause of the global inflation. The global economic effects of the pandemic was probably the greatest single cause, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine being another driver of the inflation, as it affected global prices on food, fertilizer, oil, etc. Higher consumer spending (on scarcer consumer goods) also contributed. To the degree the US's inflation can be determined to have been uniquely exacerbated to a degree not attributable to these global drivers, (if at all), that might be properly blamed on domestic policies under Biden. Can you point to any specific drivers of inflation in the US that might be a result of Biden's policies, as opposed to the global drivers of inflation worldwide? At this time, inflation is declining in the US and globally, indicating some degree of economic recovery. If you blame Biden for the inflation, do you also credit him with its current decline?
A recovery by virtue of ending mandates and other acts justified by cargo cult science.
Shared responsibility/progressive prices with forward-looking risk.
It seems to me they just revised the previous quarter down by a million jobs so they could show an increase this quarter. Just my impression, I wasn't following closely but wasn't there just a headline about a million job over count.
Forbes calls bull****.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/12/23/upon-further-review-that-hot-labor-market-is-really-ice-cold/?sh=50a324e972b5
finally, i found it,
January's 'too good to be true' jobs report was based on 'adjustments'
On an unadjusted basis, payrolls actually fell by 2.5 million last month.
That's from Bloomburg
“Seasonal adjustment factors appear to have flattered the headline as smaller-than-usual post-holiday layoffs bolstered the payrolls numbers,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese said in a note.
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