Said Egor, a 38-year-old protester, quoted in "Everyone will get snatched off the street’: mobilisation brings Ukraine war home to Russians/Reservists who face being sent to fight are desperately seeking a way out over the border" (Financial Times).
September 23, 2022
"This is the last dying breath of the system as it collapses, the final death throes. It’s trying to show that it’s still in control, but this is an illusion...."
"Everyone is lying to everyone about everything all the time. And these lies are getting bigger and bigger and bigger up to the point where you need huge resources for people to believe in this huge illusion.... They promised us a better life, nobody will touch you, everything will be fine. And now they are taking your children off to die."
Said Egor, a 38-year-old protester, quoted in "Everyone will get snatched off the street’: mobilisation brings Ukraine war home to Russians/Reservists who face being sent to fight are desperately seeking a way out over the border" (Financial Times).
Said Egor, a 38-year-old protester, quoted in "Everyone will get snatched off the street’: mobilisation brings Ukraine war home to Russians/Reservists who face being sent to fight are desperately seeking a way out over the border" (Financial Times).
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
64 comments:
Putin's Russia = trying to reclaim the soul of the old USSR and failing
Biden's USA = trying to reclaims the soul of Jimmy Carter and falling flat on his face when there's any slack to his strings
"Just like marionettes...Symphony of Destruction" -- Megadeth
The moms and grandmas are the ones who will determine Russia's fate...
Sounds familiar. . . .
Calling back reservists who were conscripted before is a desperate move. They've already seen the inside of the Russian Army. They are already acquainted with its corruption and brutality.
Any of their delusions about protecting the Rodina are long gone.
Do Most Russians Support the War in Ukraine?
.... support for the Kremlin’s so-called special military operation in Ukraine is not necessarily wholehearted. In August, less than half of survey respondents (46%) reported that they “definitely support” the Russian military’s activities, with 30% saying that they “mostly support” it (figures that have barely changed since April). ....
.... most Russians are convinced that the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine – particularly in the eastern Donbas region – was under attack. In fact, most of those who expressed support for the war highlighted the need to protect this group. ....
In February 2022 – just before Russia’s latest invasion – 60% of survey respondents reported that the United States and NATO were to blame for the conflict in Donbas, where war has been raging since 2014. That figure was up ten percentage points from the previous November.
.... Currently, about 17-20% of Russians say that they do not agree with their country’s actions in Ukraine, up from 14% in March. This group is dominated by young urban dwellers who consume news from the internet, rather than state-controlled television, though people who fit this description were still more likely than not to support the “special operation.” ....
the Tsar has no clothes
"Everyone will get snatched off the streets ..."
I certainly hope that young Americans are paying attention. It can happen here and is probably right on the brink of happening here.
Don't think so? Wait until Putin lights off a few nukes. See how quick the elite mobilize YOUR ass to go fight in the war to protect THEIR stuff.
That's why we used to have a Congress that decided when we'd be fighting a war. Back in the good old days. Before the civil war we're in right now started.
Oh, you didn't know we're in Civil War II? I see. I see.
I'm sure you'll be fine, bro. Wonder what's on Tik-Tok?
What do those guys think "reservists" meant? That they would never be called to active duty? Should have thought about that scenario before signing-up.
Concise and intuitive description. Darkly correct in its gist, and applicable to the whole transnational liberal technocracy of Western Europe and formerly first world countries.
1968.
"Everyone is lying to everyone about everything all the time. And these lies are getting bigger and bigger and bigger up to the point where you need huge resources for people to believe in this huge illusion.... They promised us a better life, nobody will touch you, everything will be fine. And now they are taking your children off to die."
Wow. That sounds almost as bad as what the Democrats are doing here.
"'Everyone will get snatched off the streets ...'
"I certainly hope that young Americans are paying attention. It can happen here and is probably right on the brink of happening here.
"Don't think so? Wait until Putin lights off a few nukes. See how quick the elite mobilize YOUR ass to go fight in the war to protect THEIR stuff."
Nope. If Putin "lights off a few nukes," there won't be any armies mobilized to fight against their armies. There will be opposing sorties of nukes. Then...it's lights out!
(His threats notwithstanding, I don't think Putin is irrational enough to actually launch any nukes. Only the USA is that crazy...with hubris)!
Shades of Afghanistan in Russia. People forget that the even the citizens of the Soviet Union grew unrestful enough about that war to force their government to pull out in 1988. It is curious, isn't it, just about 30 years after Vietnam, the US was ready to go to war again in almost the same sort of manner, only to end up in another quagmire. The same for the Russians- about 30 years (1988 to 2022).
Someone needs to step up and force these two parties to the table for a negotiated cease-fire and a settlement treaty to end the conflict. We are staggering towards WWIII, and we are led by a clown posse of leaders on both sides. It may well be that we have become too stupid to live.
Blogger R C Belaire said...
What do those guys think "reservists" meant? That they would never be called to active duty? Should have thought about that scenario before signing-up.
-------------------------------------
If you were conscripted into the Russian Army upon your discharge you are automatically a 'reservist', whether you like it or not.
A draft when the old folks support sending the young off to war can work, but I don't think Putin has the support of the old people to enslave and get their children killed. Even foregoing declining support, among troops, no one wants to be the last soldier killed when the outcome has become evident. I do not believe Putin will command the soul of his army, even if he has enough henchmen to command their bodies and legs.
In opining about the various types of troops during our Civil War:
But the real difficulty was, and will be again, to obtain an adequate number of good soldiers. We tried almost every system known to modem nations, all with more or less success —voluntary enlistments, the draft, and bought substitutes — and I think that all officers of experience will confirm my assertion that the men who voluntarily enlisted at the outbreak of the war were the best, better than the conscript, and far better than the bought substitute.
[...]
Of course, the soldier must be trained to obedience, and should be "content with his wages;" but whoever has commanded an army in the field knows the difference between a willing, contented mass of men, and one that feels a cause of grievance. There is a soul to an army as well as to the individual man, and no general can accomplish the full work of his army unless he commands the soul of his men, as well as their bodies and legs.
Memoir of General William T. Sherman, Vol II, pg 387
Baudrillard was on it: the Modern Project in all its manifestations is losing steam.
As for Russians, sounds like they need a pep-talk from Tim.
Too many people forget--apropos of the Sherman quote--that War is a People Business.
Thee collateral damage from Biden/Maidan/Slavic Spring and coups without borders in the Obama Word War Spring (WWS) series (e.g. Iraq war 2.0). Stand with Ukrainians left and right of the regime in Kiev and its military and paramilitary axis that have assaulted and oppressed Ukrainians for over eight years.
"This is the last dying breath of the system as it collapses, the final death throes. It’s trying to show that it’s still in control, but this is an illusion...."
"Everyone is lying to everyone about everything all the time. And these lies are getting bigger and bigger and bigger up to the point where you need huge resources for people to believe in this huge illusion.... They promised us a better life, nobody will touch you, everything will be fine. And now they are taking your children off to die."
Just want to add my concurrence with those who think this describes all of what used to be called western civilization.
Russia has legal title in Crimea, and democratic support, first, from the people in Crimea, and, after eight years since the violent overthrow of the government, from the people in the Donbas, too. The illicit operation of Wuhan-style labs, denial of representation, actual torture at home and in the field, etc., has not ingratiated the Zelensky et al regimes to either its citizens, neighbors, or the Russians who have chosen to stand with them. That said, this is not Syria, not the Islamic State, time will tell how this Western-induced conflict will progress.
I suppose that all is fair in lust and abortion. We live in liberal times.
Trump and Putin hardest hit
America's Pravda strikes again. "Activists" LOL. And OMG, for the 500th time, Russia is collapsing! The walls are closing in on Putin. He says 300,000 BUT it's Really 1 Million!!!
And Minorities are hardest hit - of course.
Everything and everyone the NYT's dislikes is wrong or bad or will end in failure. Never do they let the truth get in the way of their propaganda.
Here are the facts I gleaned from the article:
1) Putin is calling up 300,000 reservists.
2) It may be more. We don't know
3) Some people being called up don't like it.
This isn't surprising. after the referdumn's Putin will annex the Donbas republics. They will then be part of Russia, and need to be defended. The front is long, the number of men is relatively small. that's why the last Ukraine counter-offensive was successful. once the men are called up Ukraine will have a choice: Accept reality or face actual war with Russia. They will accept war, since Zelensky is being paid off. What's happens after that is anyone's guess.
So - no different from here in the U.S.
Regrettably, that seems to have become a daily remark while reading the "news" lately.
Lies, falsehoods, accusations, gaslighting, abuse of public office, extra-legal activities by law enforcement and prosecutors.
Attendez vous! - Zavier Onasses
"His threats notwithstanding, I don't think Putin is irrational enough to actually launch any nukes. Only the USA is that crazy...with hubris)".
I think you have this exactly backwards. The proper way to look at it is this- who has more to lose from a nuclear exchange, a much poorer Russia or a rich America? I don't know for certain that it is technically true- but I will suppose that it is- that a 1-2 megaton nuclear weapon detonated 100 miles above Kansas brings down the US power grid in the continental United States, and it would take months to a year to restart it. The world is asymmetrical, and what seem like madness to you and me might seem far less so to someone in a different world.
I've noticed that lots of media types and Biden love to talk about Nuclear war. They're always talking about how Putin is "considering" the use of Nukes and how "We won't stand for it".
I have no idea why all the sabre rattling. There's zero reason for Putin to use Nukes. It took him six months to missile strike a few electrical power plants. The real reason for the NYt/Wapo/Biden chest thumping is to paint Putin as a bad guy. "He's crazy! He's going to conquer the world!" "He's Hitler with Nukes!"
But it gets the boobs all excited. Not me. I don't care who controls the Donbas or Crimea. And Putin never called me a white supremist.
Throwing raw conscripts into the war is not going to accomplish much of anything, other than rack up a body count. You can draft a million men, but they need to be trained and equipped. Putin does not have enough time to train them. Even if he were to be patient and train them properly, he does not have the equipment to give them. As others have stated, Ukraine has captured so much Russian equipment that the Ukrainian army is probably better equipped at this point.
Putin is absolutely desperate. Desperate men are dangerous.
I suspect what Putin really needed was a competent general to command his army. There are drawbacks to surrounding yourself with toadies. There are also drawbacks about having no secure communications making your generals easy targets.
'Trump and Putin hardest hit'
Dude, get over it...
You're so hot to destroy Putin, maybe get on a flight to Ukraine and volunteer to fight for them.
Unless you do that, you're just a warmonger; no better than Cheney (both) or Bush (both).
My position has always been 'Not our fight.'
And yet he was not afraid to speak to the press. Bloggers in Ukraine have ended up on their official kill list, and ended up murdered for expressing similar opinions publicly about Ukraine.
This story brought to you by the same people that have been lying to you about Trump and demonizing you for six years. Yet you just believe it. Gell-Mann mean anything to you guys?
If Putin feels cornered, he has six thousand nukes. This is about who is going to rule over ethnic Russians and it’s none of our business and not worth WW3, but to Russia, the survival of the Russian state is the basis of their nuclear doctrine.
Robert Cook said...
"(His threats notwithstanding, I don't think Putin is irrational enough to actually launch any nukes. Only the USA is that crazy...with hubris)!"
****************
Yeah. There's not a year go by where the irrational death-loving USA hasn't nuked a city flat. It's on the first page of our political playbook.
SNORT
Narr said...
Baudrillard was on it: the Modern Project in all its manifestations is losing steam.
As for Russians, sounds like they need a pep-talk from Tim.
**************
Or maybe Putin will have James Taylor stage a Red Square concert to sing "You've Got a Friend."
Remember "Lurch" Kerry doing that to cheer up Parisians after the Charlie Hebdo massacre?
Hilariously gauche.
Howard said...
Trump and Putin hardest hit
Howard was told by his masters that Trump colluded with Russia.
And the stupid fool still believes it. All the pee pee tapes and alpha bank scandals were lies but here is the stupid gullible tool still mouth breathing this stupidity.
He pretends he is smarter than Inga but the results are the same.
Howard can't really support open borders, partial birth abortion, massive inflation, blood libels, or any of the things that are actually happening.
Lacking any dignity he has to hold on to these stupid lies his masters told him. He must cling because deep down he knows what a disgusting dishonest piece of shit he is.
R C Belaire said...
What do those guys think "reservists" meant? That they would never be called to active duty? Should have thought about that scenario before signing-up.
Most of them really didn't "sign up."
They are conscripts in large part.
How many miles was Viet Nam from the US?
“But if we let Putin win, the rest of Europe will fall like…” wait for it, “Dominos!”
The fast part comes for Putin.
The only thing that makes this different is Putin's ability to annihilate the worlds population.
He saw the video of Ghadafi.
This is going to be hard to predict at best.
William Spaniel is good on the strategies of the various sides.
Getting snatch off the street? Sounds like the Navy is in port.
The Biggest warmongers, the ones who shout - "Destroy Putin, no matter what the cost! He's Hitler and its 1939 all over again!" are exactly the ones the have ZERO intention of putting their own lives on the line. Or their friends/family on the line. Its those OTHER PEOPLE, who will die. T
They will talk TOUGH though. Nobody is tougher.
With their mouth.
But then I'm practically UnAmerican in my dislike of Killer-tough guys with big mouths who sit thousands of miles away in perfect safety. Most 'Muricans love this kind of shit. "Kill 'em all let God sort 'em out!" Yee haw, lets kill some Russkies! Then we'll take care of those Chicoms!
"This is the last dying breath of the system as it collapses, the final death throes. It’s trying to show that it’s still in control, but this is an illusion...."
This does appear to be the last dying breath(s) of a system as it collapses. Putin being the keeper of the system, the question is, will it die out quietly after a short, mindless but deadly struggle- such as we've seen in Ukraine? Or will Putin lash out one final time at all of us, releasing tactical nuclear warheads to strike at, not only Ukraine, but Nato locations in the region? Putin, being singularly in a position to end it as he wants, might just have enough of an upgraded view of his own strength and a vision of the old Soviet Union as a world power to approach it with a last spiteful flurry.
"...from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee."
Targeting the civil population was the model used in Serbia in order to establish an independent Kosovo. In Libya, with release of criminals, and immigration reform, too. And European communities tumbled after. America to a lesser extent with a larger land mass and diverse (over 300 million) indigenous and native population.
Trump worked with the de facto government in Kiev in order to address national corruption by domestic and foreign parties. He worked with the government in concurrence with Ukrainian and neighbors' interests, including the effort by Russiaans to sustain the Crimean region, and native-lead peace-keeping in Donbas, and the welfare of indigenous and native people in all regions, title claims, energy transport (e.g. to Europe), etc. It was supposed to mark the Summer after the Spring, at least until the impeachments, bureaucratic infidelity at DOD, DOJ, etc., national insurrections by extremists groups, an intransigent congress, and finally an election reverted policies to form.
He saw the video of Ghadafi.
A dictator who repudiated past sins, paid monetary relief for related claims, supported our war on transnational terrorism, and was improving the qualify of life for indigenous and native people... shades of Afghanistan, once.
Sodomized and aborted in the street with Western well-wishers and backing, and a few Americans thrown in for em-pathetic effect.
tim in vermont: "How many miles was Viet Nam from the US?
“But if we let Putin win, the rest of Europe will fall like…” wait for it, “Dominos!”"
And ironically, Kissinger himself (yes, he is apparently still alive with his much taller wife) is arguing for a negotiated settlement.
Mr Domino Theory himself.
based on everything, I'd its not an illusion. Putin really is in control.
He has skyhigh poll numbers in Russia, and complete support in the Duma.
The losses in Ukraine have been light, and almost all of the Donbas is in his hands.
THe Referedum are expected to result in the Donbas becoming part of Russia.
With the addtional 300,000, how is Zelensky going to retake the Donbas?
Europe is short of Energy. And winter is coming.
The Ruble is strong. The sanctions aren't creating significant damage.
But...But.. the walls are closing in. The whole thing is a failure. Putin is sad. He's almost dead. He's crying. The system is collapsing. The Russians are revolting or about to revolt or will revolt. The Ruble was supposed to collapse and will soon. Putin might lash out! He's a crazy man. OMG. Just wait.
And so it goes.. the fight with reality.
"(His threats notwithstanding, I don't think Putin is irrational enough to actually launch any nukes. Only the USA is that crazy...with hubris)!"
And yet, comrade Bob, the only one making nuke noises is Putin.
Robert Cook writes,
"If Putin 'lights off a few nukes,' there won't be any armies mobilized to fight against their armies. There will be opposing sorties of nukes. Then...it's lights out!"
That is of course one possible outcome.
If Russia exploded nukes over US territory, it would pretty well guarantee opposing sorties of nukes. They cannot rationally believe otherwise. If Russia exploded nukes over NATO allies' territory, the outcome is almost as certain.
Over Ukraine, which we kept out of NATO precisely because we saw Russia as so likely to invade one of these days, we didn't want to commit to WWIII if and when they did? I'm not so sure. Which is a relief – and also a danger. Because just as we can convince ourselves they wouldn't be so crazy, they can convince themselves we wouldn't be so crazy as to respond in kind. Not over Ukraine. Not while we can convince ourselves it's not our fight.
If Putin does go nuclear, I hope and expect there will be concerted efforts to contain and deescalate the conflict. Right up until he does, I prefer the working assumption that it most certainly will escalate all the way, and therefore that threshold must not be crossed.
Had a funny interview today on French TV5 news with the Russian spokesman at their Paris embassy. He mouthed platitudes which is what his job called for without answering the serious questions. I'm sure he dreads being recalled.
Enigma said...
Putin's Russia = trying to reclaim the soul of the old USSR and failing
Biden's USA = trying to reclaims the soul of Jimmy Carter and falling flat on his face when there's any slack to his strings
Trump's USA: trying to reclaim the soul of Joe McCarthy and Trump's mentor, Roy Cohn.
A catchy quote is nice for attracting eyeballs to the story, but how widespread _is_ that attitude? Anecdote isn't data ...
If Putin wins, he wouldn't have enough of anything else with which to try another go.
Putin doesn't push the nuke button. Launch officers with a great deal to lose are supposed to push.Without incoming nukes, the motivation may be lacking.
If open warfare with NATO breaks out over this border dispute, wait until you see the gnashing of young men’s teeth in Europe when mobilization begins, assuming that the conflict doesn’t go nuclear at the drop of a hat. Imagine if the Russian army was bearing down on our border through Canada, the way NATO is on Russia’s border in Ukraine, then ask yourself how American draft dodgers would be viewed compared to when the war was thousands of miles away in a country we had never heard of.
After the first big battles of WWI, those battles where 50,000 men were killed in a single day and the combat line only moved a few hundred feet, the war leaders did not pause and say WTF is going on here. No, they hunkered down and planned the next big battle. Only pressing on to victory could justify the war's expenses and sacrifices of the fallen.....Putin looks like he'll persevere. So does Zelensky....Contra Putin, this war will never justify what's Putin has already paid in treasure and blood. Pro Zelensky, whatever the corruption and deficits of his government, Ukrainians by the thousands are willing to die for it and millions are okay with vacating their homes to avoid Russian rule and continue to be subjects of the Ukrainian government. Much less esprit among the Russians.....That's not to say that the Russian won't win. In a technical sense, maybe they will, but only in the technical sense that France won WWI. There's no way Russia comes out ahead, and that's all on Putin.
If Putin wins, he wouldn't have enough of anything else with which to try another go.
Putin doesn't push the nuke button. Launch officers with a great deal to lose are supposed to push.Without incoming nukes, the motivation may be lacking.
It sounds to me that Russian Empire 3.0 is going the same way as 1.0 (Tsarist) and 2.0 (Soviet).
That headline seems a closer description to America than Russia. When Putin first took charge, Russia had lost Chechnya. It was one of many failures of Yeltsin. Putin returned Chechnya to Russia. When Putin took power, the russian mob ran many cities. Each city with its own local corrupt gang. The Russian military was a joke. Facilities were deteriorating. Corruption was rampant. I remember reading a story that with the fall of communism the black market was the only "free" market. So only the mob knew how to sell. It is important to be reminded of the real history.
Putin may be the most competent Czar the Russians have had for several hundred years. For many Russians, Putin has done much. He replaced the localized corruption with state founded corruption, but that was an improvement. To fight the Russian mobs, Putin had to be willing to kill. He killed to take control. Under Yeltsin, the mobsters did not fear the government, under Putin they did.
I am disappointed that Yeltsin failed. I had hoped for so much more, but perhaps Russia can only be led by a tough man. The peaceful transfer of power from Yeltsin to Putin was the first time Russia ever had a peaceful transfer of power. I fear who will follow Putin more than I fear Putin.
Our policy toward Russia after the fall of communism was a massive failure. We should have offered to buy every one of the nukes, set up a Plutonium supported ruble, so that the country could have succeeded, and not become the failed state that Putin rescued from the mob. I blame both Bush and clinton.
My gut feeling is that Putin is much more popular in his country, than our current resident of the white house in ours. Putin got that way by being tough. He is not likely to change what worked in the past. We ignore that at our peril.
Keep wondering....if Zelensky is as corrupt as some say, why didn't he do the "corrupt autocrat" thing and transfer his graft to Switzerland and hop on a plane to a friendly country?
After all, that's what evil tyrants hove done for years, right? Tim of (crime-ridden) Vermont:
wanna 'splain that?
@Tim of Vt.:
If Ukraine is run by Nazis, why did the Azov Brigade allow Zelensky, a Jew, to become president?
Show your work. No drive-by snot, please.
Re nukes...
Umm.... okay, let's look at a few things here. In the US there's considerable concern for the reliability of nuclear weapons, and the missiles that launch them. The warheads themselves are VERY precise bits of machinery and need regular maintenance because the electronics in them are degraded by radiation over time. For a compression device - which plutonium bombs are - you've got explosive 'lenses' with individual ignition circuits, all of which must be triggered simultaneously to implode the plutonium core properly. A hundred-thousandths of a second delay in one firing circuit will result in the weapon scattering itself in small chunks across the landscape, not going up in a proper thermonuclear explosion.
The US avoids problems by regularly scheduled maintenance on the weapons. Russia? Well...
Given the state we've seen demonstrated with Russian vehicle maintenance, what's the chance that a nuclear weapon that's been stored in a bunker for the last forty-fifty years has been properly maintained?
Good discussion on that here: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/3/23/2087736/-Do-any-of-Russia-s-Nuclear-Weapons-Actually-Work
Also, a long time back in the AF we used to talk about the Soviet missile fleet. We heard that maintenance even then was 'iffy' at best. We figured of 100 missiles, perhaps half to three quarters would be down at any one time for maintenance issues of one sort or another. (It's not as simple as 'put Ivan at the bottom with a blowtorch to light it off', after all.)
Of the roughly 50 remaining and capable of launch, probably half will suffer some sort of failure after launch. Solid rockets must be carefully kept in order to be reliable. Liquid fueled even more so. Add in guidance systems malfunctions - and we guesstimated that you'd end up with maybe 5-10 more or less functional missiles launching, and kinda making it towards the targets.
Then you've got warhead release and re-entry. Many things go on after the launch - and anything that doesn't go exactly right means the warhead won't drop where you expect it. (That's why the Air Force does actual launch testing - to make sure things work.)
https://youtu.be/Mvo54LJcXe8
Now add in the probability of the warhead just failing to explode... and I don't think Putin's got the big threat he thinks he does.
Richard said...
"If Putin wins, he wouldn't have enough of anything else with which to try another go.
Putin doesn't push the nuke button. Launch officers with a great deal to lose are supposed to push.Without incoming nukes, the motivation may be lacking."
Putin isn't an idiot. At least not yet. He can see how eastern Europe has reacted to his military posturing. If he uses theater nukes he knows somebody in Europe will use theirs by giving some to Ukraine. The chucklehead in the Whitehouse can only make a situation like that worse like he made the situation in Ukraine worse. Putin has some hard decisions to make. Let's hope that his ego can take further humiliation.
Zelensky is a figurehead, like Biden, run by others. He ran on a platform of peace and reconciliation with Russia and won in a landslide. Still his government pressed the civil war that started with the CIA coup that used nazi muscle to do to the Ukrainian parliament what the Democrats are accusing J6 of, an armed storming of parliament. The US told the government to stand down, and immediately recognized the coup, and picked the leaders. Google Victoria Nuland and Maiden, BBC has a transcript.
Twice, when the war started, Zelensky tried to negotiate a peace deal, twice he was undercut, by the nazis in his government, and by the UK and the US. Putin's original demand of a non-aligned Ukraine and autonomy for the ethnic Russia oblasts, which could remain part of Ukraine and pay taxes to Kiev.
The fact that Zelensky is Jewish does not preclude him from being used by nazis. He is clearly not the leader of his country, his job is to go get weapons from the west, it's his only job. He is a well paid figurehead, like Biden.
"And yet, comrade Bob, the only one making nuke noises is Putin."
Haven't you learned by now that when an animal is in a dire and threatened situation it will assume the most frightful demeanor and make the most aggressive noises it can to scare off its potential aggressors? It's as true among human animals as others. That Putin even made the threat is evidence he feels threatened and is fearful of defeat in his current situation. Putin is rational enough to know the outcome for him and Russia--and the world--if he makes good on his threat.
Putin is, as others have noted, constrained by institutional and political factors, like any American president when it comes to use of nukes. Jerry above has pointed out the technical factors affecting any use of old nuke weaponry, and given what has been shown since February I wouldn't bet a lot on Strategic Rocket Force readiness and effectiveness.
So far Putin--who had played a weak hand well for years--has not matched his goals to his means, and military failure and humiliation has led to more leadership turnover in Russia than any other factor.
Given that patriotic young men are a major cause of war in the modern world it remains to be seen whether the Russians or the Ukrainians have more of that item in the pipeline. Putin may be popular with the Russian chickenhawk community (and a few here) but maybe not so much with the boys at the sharp end. (Same same for Zelensky of course, but only time will tell.)
A nuclear Hail Mary play by Putin can't be ruled out, but the guys who will actually have to launch can calculate the likely consequences better than he can, and in the world at large the first leader to cross that threshold will not be immune to fallout (as it were).
Is it possible that Putin will be replaced by someone worse? Yes, but that can't be helped now, due to his own bad decisions.
If nukes fly, armies go home. I really get a kick out of these “hold my beer” types who think that this dispute over who rules over some ethnic Russians is important enough to risk the launch of such weapons. After a nuclear war, Russians will be left in Russia, the NATO countries, like Russia, will have their hands full back home. America will not continue to fight a war that was none of our business in the first place, when NYC, Chicago, LA, DC, Boston, St Louis, etc, etc, are smoking ruins with scores of millions dead and millions more dying. All over a civil war we started in Ukraine.
Somebody tell me how this situation is different than the Cuban missile crisis. Russia has demonstrated in this war a lot of skill at shooting down missiles. Maybe their guys figure that they will win. The idea that all six thousand nuclear weapons would fail is absurd, and this war isn’t worth one of our cities.
"If nukes fly, armies go home." Those that don't go poof, and if there are homes left.
Six thousand missiles don't have to fail if they don't get launched; OTOH one might be enough to set off many more.
The MAD logic still obtains, and so do the questions: are Russians more willing to fry for some or all of the Ukraine than we are?
It's not in our hands.
Post a Comment