There is no recession yet. Right now we are in a “vibe-cession” of sorts — a period of declining expectations that people are feeling based on both real-world worries and past experiences. Things are off. And if they don’t improve, we will have to worry about more than bad vibes.Instapundit quoted the Ace of Spades take, "New York Times Publishes Op-Ed From 25-Year-Old Female 'Economics Influencer' Absolving Biden of Blame for Economy and Instead Putting It Where It Belongs: On the 'Bad Vibes' The Public Is Putting Out About the Economy, Man."
In surveys, Americans are remarkably unsatisfied with economic conditions. The growth numbers have been good. The vibes have been bad."
I think what Chair J. Powell was saying at this press conference was very much the conventional wisdom of professional economists, which is that as of right now, we've had strong enough job growth, enough good things happening in the economy that this is not technically a recession yet. Uh, the question I asked and the question he answered was, do you believe we are currently in a recession? That's not the same thing as do you think we will be in a few months. Um, nobody's quite sure where this goes in a few months, but right now the, the jobs numbers and other, uh, numbers have been too strong. What matters is how Americans feel, how they're able to earn an income, live their daily lives, not have kind of soul-crushing inflation that saos [sic] away their paychecks. Until that changes, I think that the vibes, whatever we wanna call it, are still gonna be bad and the communications is a second order issue.
So I don't think "bad vibes" is the kind of talk you get when you let a 25-year-old speak. I think it's a phrase older analysts use too. In fact, "bad vibes" has been Boomer slang since the 60s.
Did Scanlon write a good enough op-ed to deserve to be in the NYT even though she's young? That's a question to be answered without down-rating her for saying "bad vibes."
As for the distinction between what the economy really is and what people feel it is — I will leave that to be bantered about by econ geeks. But I have the impression — I don't know but I feel — that the feeling about the economy is a big part of what the economy is. And those in power and those out of power will have different ways of talking about that as they try to influence economics and politics.
They're all trying to influence, so is there any reason to put "economics influencer" in quotes when speaking about young Ms. Scanlon? Neither she nor the Times called her that. In fact, when I google her name and "economics influencer," I get little more than the Ace of Spades headline linked above. So the quotes are just scare quotes.
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67 comments:
The vibes have been bad."
sounds like, what we NEED is more funemployment!
“The economy runs on confidence.” Senator Chuck Hagel.
Who has confidence in Joe Biden?
‘…we've had strong enough job growth, enough good things happening in the economy that this is not technically a recession yet.’
We’ve had zero jobs growth. Zero. Backfilling jobs lost during the pandemic is not growth.
Literally Voodoo Economics.
@ Beasts of England - "I have not gained weight. I has just backfilled the pounds I lost on my diet."
What does Ricky Gourmet think?
Does the reality create the feels or the feels create reality?
This question is as old as Adam and Eve and is very masculine/feminine. As a man I am definitely "reality (data) creates feelings". Women however are notorious for feeling uneasy even when everything is hunky-dory and vice-versa. Feelings do in fact create a woman's reality.
CNN and MSNBC are out there telling America's vagina-havers to "go with their gut" and trust the pedo Peter economy. Many will.
Here’s the breakout from last month’s ‘awesome’ jobs report:
~ 71k full time jobs lost
~ 384k part time jobs created
~ 92k multiple jobs created
And, the labor participation rate declined by a tenth of a percent.
FJB
"In fact, "bad vibes" has been Boomer slang since the 60s... But I have the impression — I don't know but I feel — that the feeling about the economy is a big part of what the economy is."
I've got a feeling
I've got a feeling (everybody had a good year)
A feeling deep inside (everybody had a hard time)
Oh yeah (everybody had a wet dream)
Oh yeah (everybody saw the sunshine)
I've got a feeling (everybody had a good year)
A feeling I can't hide (everybody let their hair down)
Oh no (everybody pulled their socks up)
Oh no, no (everybody put their foot down, oh yeah)
Yeah, yeah
Is an "Economics Influencer" closer to a Journalist or a Propagandist?
’ I have not gained weight. I has just backfilled the pounds I lost on my diet.’
Exactly. If I weighed 210 lbs in January and lost down to 195 lbs in March I haven’t gained any weight against the baseline if I weighed 205 lbs this morning. Although I haven’t eaten breakfast yet…
There is a legit line of thinking in economics that inflation is influenced by psychology: If people expect prices will go up, they will spend now when their money is worth more than it will be later, which will push up prices. The same goes for deflation: If people expect prices will fall, they will wait, which would exacerbate stagnation. This is what happened in the 70's era of stagflation.
At its core, though, inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
There is the economy of Main Street and the economy of DC and the intellectual class. There is a wide disparity between how these two groups view the economy and more than that, how these two benefit or get hurt by the current economy. Jobs numbers are a guide, but have less and less meaning to a Main Street where small businesses are closing, employers still open cannot staff their businesses or get product, or have to pay 30% more for the same product. And while jobs numbers are up, the reality is that people carrying two or more jobs is at the highest level in our history. We actually have fewer people working more jobs right now.
There is also this: Farmers are being asked, or paid to produce less. And come sometime around September or October, you will start reading about less food supply in Europe and it will start to show up here. Energy, or lack of it, will hit Europe very hard this winter and probably hit homes in the North and Northeast here as well this winter.
DC and the intellectual class read the economy by the numbers it gives off. Main Street reads the economy by looking out their windows, going outside, opening the doors to their small businesses, trying to meet their bills, keep their businesses open, clothe their kids, and gas up their cars. Electric vehicle? Not for $70K. Not most of America.
It's not about vibes. It's about the little things every day that make up the hard work of the lives of regular Americans. The S&P does not mean a thing to someone just trying to pay for his order of goods coming in the back door of his restaurant. Or waiting in the doctor's office with their kid, wondering if they'll have enough to pay for the visit, or the meds. Solar panels on their house? Sure. In the next life. In this one they're week to week. These people were shut down for two years. Their kids were locked out of schools for 1-2 years. Since it's opened back up, a few large corporations in a handful of sectors have done very well. Main Street has been rocked and is still trying to find it's footing while our DC and intellectual class are coming up with creative ways to slow food production, cut energy production, and create unnecessary hurdles for they and their children. (Did you have to worry about your kids getting converted to another gender when you were raising them?).
All of this is part of the 'vibe'. Yes, the vibe is off. And not by accident. Almost as if it was part of a planned reorganization. This 'economy' that everyone is taking a stab at, is yet to play out. We have not hit the hardest parts yet. Those are yet to come. I've been assured this by someone I trust on Main Street.
“I don't know but I feel — that the feeling about the economy is a big part of what the economy is. And those in power and those out of power will have different ways of talking about that as they try to influence economics and politics.”
Well, two negative quarters of growth and 9.1% inflation sure seem to strongly suggest that the feeling that the economy was on a downward trajectory was right, if not prescient. Oh, and their flaunted “job growth” - that’s mostly people taking 2nd, etc jobs to compensate for the inflation, and esp, in flyover country, the more than doubling of gas prices.
Their "plan" is to cause enough pain that people abandon gasoline as soon as possible.
The adaption rate for electric cars is 7% I think.
And of course the problem with high gas prices is that it makes everything else much more expensive.
And they have no real energy plan for producing the electricity that will drive all those cars that people haven't bought yet.
In the meantime, they deny that inflation exists(!) and if it does exist, it's the fault of the oil companies and the billionaires and the Republicans.
What we need is fresh batteries for the vibrator!
I’ve always disliked the term scare quotes though the concept it attempts to communicate is essential. From Wikipedia I learn:
Elizabeth Anscombe coined the term scare quotes as it refers to punctuation marks in 1956 in an essay titled "Aristotle and the Sea Battle", published in Mind. The use of a graphic symbol on an expression to indicate irony or dubiousness goes back much further: Authors of ancient Greece used a mark called a diple periestigmene for that purpose.
Sneer quotes comes closer to capturing the essence but it’s too too. Air quotes has a lighter touch but properly refers to spoken, not written, words.
“Economics influencer” is a shot at both the author and the NYT. Her analysis is “Econ 101 day 2”; the NYT is a lightweight celebrity pushing product on YouTube.
Our hostess tags “Social Media driving news policy” or some such. A similar observation drives Ace’s insult.
Democrats talk about "messaging" all the time because they want to own 100% of the media. Fox News drives them crazy because it's a reminder they don't control 100% of the media. If they owned 100% of the media, then people would get dispirited and depressed. "Am I crazy? Inflation is horrible but nobody is complaining."
It's an exaggeration to say that Democrats think like Communists. But if there were no Republicans, if there was no Fox News and an opposition party, they would be a lot more like Communists. Control the media, control the economy, try to centrally plan everything, and impoverish everyone.
It's good that she is mocked. Free speech is a special thing and it makes us all better. Free speech needs to be protected.
Having opposition parties is a good thing and it makes us all better. The right to vote needs to be protected.
The left has become remarkably illiberal in my lifetime. They have gone from being stalwart champions of free speech to the exact opposite. They oppose things like voter ID (something that has overwhelming support of the people) because they want to control election outcomes. The left loves the Supreme Court as a power structure because it's unelected and they can rule from above.
The left constantly does unpopular things because they are elitist and they think they know a lot more than ordinary people. The loss of the Supreme Court as a source of power, and the inability to control 100% of the media, upsets the left because they are afraid of elections and democracy.
@Roger Sweeny - "I have not made gainz, I have just earned back what I lost while ill."
"Literally Voodoo Economics."
Voodoo works if you believe it works.
But I have the impression — I don't know but I feel — that the feeling about the economy is a big part of what the economy is.
Basic economic facts: Two-thirds of the economy is consumer spending; half of all Americans have less than $500 in savings (and that was before inflation took off). When filling your car with gas suddenly costs $100 instead of $50, half of all Americans know things the other half only vaguely feels.
Question of the day: Is it more difficult for Biden to convince people that the economy is great or that there are more than two sexes?
Clue - when people experience things personally unfiltered by the media or political spinners, they know the answer to both questions.
Those not of the asset class see much higher costs for necessary staples like food and energy (electric utilities as well as gas). Increases in those areas have far outstripped wage increases. So too with rent or the cost of buying a home. To try to convince them the economy is great is impossible
Those who have seen lots of naked people in locker rooms, in media, etc. have yet to see a human body that does not look like a male or a female. Show them something else and they’ll entertain the proposition that there is a third sex. Until then it is foolhardy to convince people that we do not live in a binary world. As for what some people thing about their sexuality? Anything goes.
Bad economic "vibes" play a minor role in inflationary cycles and influence how fiscal policymakers act -- but their main impact is on votes.
This economy is prey groady. Can you grok what I’m sayin’?
Ace: New York Times Publishes Op-Ed From 25-Year-Old Female "Economics Influencer" Absolving Biden of Blame for Economy and Instead Putting It Where It Belongs: On the "Bad Vibes" The Public Is Putting Out About the Economy, Man
She says we're not in a recession.
Just a "vibe-cession."
And that's a real quote. That's a real thing the New York Time published as noteworthy economic commentary.
We are Serious Journalists. Please pay us money and give us Prizes now!
Over the top takedown, as is their want at Ace, but quite humorous, esp with the short video at the end of Donald Sutherland “Oddball” in “Kelly’s Heroes” complaining about negative vibes.
Ann Althouse said...
"Literally Voodoo Economics."
Voodoo works if you believe it works.
So did Reaganomics. You Gotta Believe! I believe Jo Biden is a paid Chinese Commie Spy
25 year old journalists should mocked on principle.
Vibrator batteries? I can't find a Delco 9 volt for love or money.
And have you priced forced greengages recently?
When gas prices went up $2 a gallon.. The President can have NO Affect on gas prices
When gas prices went down 60¢ ....... The President is a MIRACLE WORKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There are nearly as many people working now, as there were went Trump was President..
This PROVES! that Jo Biden is a GOD!!!! he CONTROLS THE WORLD!!! HURRAY!! LONG LIVE BIG BROTHER!
Eh, Ace is justified in calling her an economics influencer. She has 25k followers on Instagram because she posts of herself talking economics. That's the epitome of economics influencer.
"Voodoo works if you believe it works."
Althouse is definitely a woman. Zero ambiguity there. Extremely refreshing, quite frankly.
So not only is she callow, she's derivative.
I really don't get the D's plan here.
They are claiming that 2 Qs of down GDP do not make a recession. They can make a technical claim that only The National Bureau of Economic Research can "oficially" declare a recession, and they do that only in retrospect.
Fair enough.
What will they say when the next Q is also down? The next GDP report will come out in late October, just before the election. It will also be down. Will they say that 3 Q of down GDP is not a recession? Are they hoping for a uptick? Are they "making sure" it's an uptick?
I just don't get it? Open to ideas...
Influencers are the new televangelists. The new Jim and Tammy, Jimmy Swaggart and $8 million Oral Roberts.
A lot of the growth number is coming from people taking second or third jobs.
"Voodoo works if you believe it works."
It does if you decide what you're getting is what you want...which is where the economic influencer comes in.
Ann Althouse said...
"["Literally Voodoo Economics."]"
"Voodoo works if you believe it works."
Only to a point. It doesn't cure cancer and it doesn't grow back lost appendages. And voodoo economics of this sort, or, has it has been called, trickle-up poverty, also works until it doesn't.
"For once, the government tried overheating the economy. For better and worse, it succeeded."
I remember now, when Dems passed their insane spending, how they all crowed about trying to overheat the economy. They did, didn't they? And the NYT supported them at the time, didn't they?
Hey, NYT: so, if "the government," i.e., Dems, successfully overheated the economy, as they "tried" to do, we can now hold them accountable for that, right?
I'm only writing about this to say that the 25-year-old did not introduce this "bad vibes" take to the NYT.
No, you wrote that because somebody picked on a girl. If it had been a 25yo male, crickets, I think.
1. There is a strange absence of stories about the impact of the worst increase in food, energy, and housing prices in decades on people with fixed incomes living solely off Social Security payments.
2. Today's conjecture: Functionally, there is no essential difference between today's social media "influencers" and the historic mainstream media.
"Voodoo works if you believe it works."
No, it doesn’t.
Damned Kulaks wrecking stuff to spite Biden.
Ann Althouse said "Voodoo works if you believe it works."
Fair point. Maybe we should use the term "Cargo Cult Economics."
Cargo Cults don't work even when you believe in them. Just like Bidenomics...
Voodoo works if you believe it works AND you know that someone has cast a spell on you.
The language of economics is numbers but the phenomenon is psychological. That makes it a social science, not a hard science.
"Voodoo works if you believe it works."
Only for that small fraction of subjects for whom it actually works - you know, the head cases.
Voodoo does work. It works like this:
You go to a voodoo priestess for a charm to hang over your bed to prevent an unwanted pregnancy.
You get pregnant.
You go back to the voodoo priestess and say, "Hey, the charm didn't work."
The priestess casts the bones and tells you, "The spirits say you are special and your baby is special. The spirits say it is important for the world that your baby is born. Your baby will be great one day and you will be happy."
Voodoo economics works the same way.
I will point out something that has been a general rule for a very, very long time. The well-being and economic security and growth of a country is direct function of the increase in cheap energy. It is the one thing that can't be faked with numbers easily or at all. The first world everywhere is sliding backwards on this, and it is very, very bad news. You don't get economic growth or even stasis with increasingly expensive and less available energy inputs.
One reason the left wins, is they don't mind writing the same thing over and over and over again. You had millions of Leftists who spent over 5 years from Aug 2015 to Jan 2021, writing variations of "Fuck you Trump" every single Goddamn day. It takes a certain kind of dumbness a robot mind, to be able to do that.
But I'm not like that. I get tired of writing "You know if Trump was in office, the MSM would be writing something different like blah blah blah".
Even though its true. and others need to be reminded.
Are vibes anything like animal spirits?
I really don't get the D's plan here.
They are claiming that 2 Qs of down GDP do not make a recession. They can make a technical claim that only The National Bureau of Economic Research can "oficially" declare a recession, and they do that only in retrospect.
Fair enough.
What will they say when the next Q is also down? The next GDP report will come out in late October, just before the election. It will also be down. Will they say that 3 Q of down GDP is not a recession? Are they hoping for a uptick? Are they "making sure" it's an uptick?
I just don't get it? Open to ideas...
Have you ever dealt with scam artists or proverbial liars? They lie till the end. Many never acknowledge their lies, and continue their defense well after the rest of the world knows that they lied. The reality is that they stole the 2020 election, and came into office the next year all prepped to loot the treasury and implement their target makeover of the government and the country as fast as they could, many knowing that this was a once in a generation chance to do so. They upped federal spending worse than when their overspending in the early days caused the 8 year Obamarecession. Remember Pelosi back then claiming a Keynesian Multiplier of 4-5? Turns out that empirically it is below 1, but is still used to justify massive deficit spending, esp in a recession. Keynes suggested that there was a short period in the depth of a Great Recession where massive deficit spending might help us through the bottom of a trough. There is a very short term benefit of deficit spending by the government, and that may be the reasoning behind the recessionary bill that seems to be firming up in Congress right now. Long run it is recessionary (and inflationary), but before that, they may see a couple months of stimulus right before the election, before the recession bill comes due. I don’t think it’s going to work, because then government just doesn’t work that quickly. And, of course, because it is deficit spending, it is inflationary, and esp with their various attempts to undermine the international use of the US$ as the reserve currency. But it will have been worth those negative effects, because the IRS will have massively more money to hire an army of new auditors and armed agents to use against their political enemies.
The lockdowns didn’t help, but the real reason that the economy crashed, and we have 9.1% or so inflation, is the massive spending over the last year and a half, along with additional regulations harming the economy through, for example, squandering our energy independence through adherence to cargo cult sciency Climate Change beliefs. But mostly it has been, and continues to be, looting of the public treasury in order to massively enrich themselves, their cronies, and the elite class they believe they belong to. As a good friend always says: “follow the money”.
It's common knowledge that people's opinion of the economy can actually drive the economy up or down.
The measurement of this is called, the Consumer Confidence Index. It goes from "bad vibes" at the low end to "good vibrations" at the high end.
“All these newspapers used to have foreign bureaus. Now they don’t. They call us to explain to them what’s happening in Moscow and Cairo. Most of the outlets are reporting on world events from Washington. The average reporter we talk to is 27 years old, and their only reporting experience consists of being around political campaigns. That’s a sea change. They literally know nothing,” -- Ben Rhodes
25-year olds know less than nothing.
I grew up in the original "bad vibes" economy, the 1970s. And by grew up, I was 18 in 1980, so my awareness was of the worst in the latter half. A decade of bad hair, bad clothes, bad music (Disco), bad economy, bad politics.... I had often wondered of my view of the 1960s as a better time, even though through the eyes of a toddler. But in a discussion, economist Larry Summers described how the 1970s economy got started. It was due to the government overspending in the 1960s. Which leads to inflation but at first people have money so it's "good times", but then they run out of money. And that latter was the 1970s. Inflation after the dumped money had run out for most. And it seems we are rushing to that now. The whole thing all over again, but at a faster pace.
One difference in 1970, the excess workers of the Baby Boomer were crashing on the beach of the crashing economy. This time around, the Boomers are pulling out of the working world and that pace will increase. But also, pulling cash out of investments which will keep spending inflation up, while capital for investment declining.
The vibes are quite bad for the economy right now.
"So the quotes are just scare quotes."
Well, it's in the NYT, and they always have an agenda to push, a narrative to advance, which is also always a function of which party controls the WH. Selecting this op-ed is just part of that show. As you say elsewhere today, it pays to be skeptical, and your zings aimed at Ace for saying and doing what you sometimes say and do about the agenda-driven fluff in the NYT sounds like a return of the cruel vortex of yore. Imitation is a form of flattery, so perhaps it's best to take it that way. But don't believe everything you read (including this).
She's not wrong.
MV=PQ
Amount of money in circulation X velocity of circulation = average price per transaction X number of transactions
Inflation (increase in average price level P) can ONLY be caused by an increase in the money supply M. Holding economic activity Q constant.
An increase in M will always cause inflation. Holding Q constant
An increase in velocity, spending each dollar faster, increases the money supply.
So if the press tells us we are looking at inflation, we spend our money faster trying to stay ahead. We spend the money instead of saving it. This causes more inflation, increasing velocity, rinse and repeat.
Same thing with recession. We get told, right or wrong, that we are in a recession and act accordingly. That slows the economy and "omigod! The recession is getting worse."
So yeah, we can "vibe" our way into a recession and/or inflation. Not the way I would say it but not wrong
John LGBTQBNY Henry
“The economy runs on confidence.” Senator Chuck Hagel.
This is what someone who does not know how an economy works says.
Hagel is a retard. Most of our government is made up of economically illiterate shitheads who can't do or make anything so they resort to government work.
The people that support Joe Biden are even more stupid than he is.
They just can't deal with the fact that Trump made it work and they cannot.
Did Scanlon write a good enough op-ed to deserve to be in the NYT even though she's young?
Your worship of the NYT's is gross. Stop licking their boots.
There are innumerable sources of news and information that are better written than the NYT's.
But you are so desperate to be a part of their tribe you lift them up on a pedestal.
The NYT's is pathetic, staffed by stupid people, and read by people who are even more stupid than them because they cannot even see the dishonesty that pervades he publication.
Have no fear. Brandon has Karine Jean-Pierre and Suzanne Malveaux casting spells 24/7 to combat the bad juju.
In surveys, Americans are remarkably unsatisfied with economic conditions. The growth numbers have been good. The vibes have been bad."
This is complete and utter garbage written by an idiot who knows nothing about economics.
Managing he economy is vastly more complicated subject than anything a moron writing for he NYT's can comprehend so they write stupid shit like this article.
There are n variables in the economy where n is the number of people times the number of financial interactions they have with each other.
You cannot micromanage this. But there are some levers the government can pull.
Joe Biden drove the price of energy over double it's cost in a year.
Then he started a war with Russia.
Since he has taken over he has shrunk he work force by millions of jobs and caused massive inflation of staples food and gas.
We have no even seen the worst of the economic catastrophe that is Joe Biden. People who are not economically illiterate can see what he is doing and we have predicted accurately what has happened.
It has nothing to do with "bad vibes." That is illiterate gibberish.
It has everything to do with consumer spending on the margins. Consumers all over the world have less disposable income, and the goods they need to buy are more expensive. For obvious reasons.
All of these effects are felt on the margins. The NYT's and heir readers want to pretend that everyone in the US is as economically illiterate and as stupid as they are.
Ann Althouse said...
"Literally Voodoo Economics."
Voodoo works if you believe it works.
No it doesn't.
But it makes ignorant people feel better to explain why they are not really wrong.
I read her essay, and I learned that a) we're NOT in a recession, b) none of our economic problems can be traced to the Democratic Party or Joe Biden, and c) we just have to think on the bright side.
So, okay.
Of course people's feelings about the economy affect the economy. That's undisputed.
What's causing all the "bad vibes" about the economy is the outrageous inflation that people are seeing.
Joe Biden and the federal reserve are rightly blamed for this inflation because they caused it.
Biden's hostility to Milton Friedman is a hostility to real economic forces. Biden, like many idiots on the left, think if they just have power they can improve the world. But there are realities that are outside your control. And if you ignore these realities or diminish them your policies can make the world worse, despite your best intentions.
Bad vibes?
Don't be surprised if Biden is walking around the White House with a handkerchief in his hand mumbling about how Jay Powell is messing up the economic juju.
He also randomly asks people he meets for the current Eagles score.
I'm pickin' up bad vibrations.
She's coverin' up high inflation.
This young person so uninformed she is not even wrong. Low consumer confidence is caused by the results of poor economic policy. The population does not have “bad vibes” until the economy performs poorly. The population does not switch from optimistic to pessimistic in a unified way without a cause.
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