February 16, 2022

"The United States has recorded more than 1 million 'excess deaths' since the start of the pandemic, government mortality statistics show, a toll that exceeds..."

"... the officially documented lethality of the coronavirus and captures the broad consequences of the health crisis that has entered its third year.... Although the vast majority of the excess deaths are due to the virus, the CDC mortality records also expose swollen numbers of deaths from heart disease, hypertension, dementia and other ailments across two years of pandemic misery....

The CDC’s analysis estimates 208,431 excess deaths from all the non-covid causes since the start of the pandemic. At first glance, that number plus the 911,000 covid-19 deaths would suggest the excess deaths were greater than 1.1 million. [Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics] notes that many of the people who died of covid-19 were elderly, sick or very frail, and, even without a pandemic, some might not have survived across the two-year span of the pandemic. 'Some of those covid deaths are not, strictly speaking, excess deaths,' he said....  [M]any elderly and frail people found themselves isolated because of precautions against viral spread.... [T]he quality of care for the most vulnerable populations probably suffered, Anderson said. Deaths from Alzheimer’s disease exceeded the expected total by 66,000 during the course of two years, he said. 'People with dementia, in isolation, they sometimes lose the will to live,' Anderson said.... Many people essentially sheltered in place. That set up a secondary health crisis, as people canceled cancer screenings, ignored warning signs of heart problems or possible strokes, and failed to receive the kind of medical care and support they needed.... The pandemic exacerbated existing health disparities and led to much higher mortality among Black and Hispanic people...."

From "U.S. ‘excess deaths’ during pandemic surpassed 1 million, with covid killing most but other diseases adding to the toll, CDC says" (WaPo).

82 comments:

gspencer said...

What's an "excess death?"

Is there a quota?

Michael K said...

The statement that "excess deaths" are from the virus is nonsense. Life insurance companies have reported that the death rate for those between 18 and 64 is up 40%. That is the group at least danger from Covid. A lot of those deaths are overdoses. The destruction of the lower middle class is more important than Covidiocy.

Michael said...

.
"The pandemic exacerbated existing health disparities...."

The pandemic did no such thing, it was the government lockdowns which caused these deaths.

rcocean said...

This is very confusing. Excess deaths = those in excess of those expected to happen without CV-19 or the lockdown. so, CV-19 deaths + two hundred is NOT the excess deaths. Obviously, many of those who died of CV19 would've died anyway.

The real question is how many people were killed because of the lockdown? How many took drugs, excess alcohol or failed to recieve or seek needed medical treatment. I had to postpone a minor surgery in 2020 because the hospital was "locked down" and later "could only treat emergency cases Plus CV 19". Thank God, I didn't have a serious heart problem or miss a screening test that resulted in a major disease.

Owen said...

Can't wait for Fauci to own this.

Robert Cook said...

"The statement that "excess deaths" are from the virus is nonsense. Life insurance companies have reported that the death rate for those between 18 and 64 is up 40%. That is the group at least danger from Covid. A lot of those deaths are overdoses. The destruction of the lower middle class is more important than Covidiocy."

Maybe that's true, but, without a more detailed argument, supported by stats, you're just blowing hooey. For example, overdoses from what? How do know what percentage of the deaths in this cohort is from overdoses, much less than that it is "a lot," (an imprecise quantity, that)?

Robert Cook said...

"The pandemic did no such thing, it was the government lockdowns which caused these deaths."

How? In what way? How do you know?

Mason G said...

"Thank God, I didn't have a serious heart problem or miss a screening test that resulted in a major disease."

I have a friend whose colonoscopy was delayed a year and a half due to covid hysteria. He has recently had surgery for colon cancer.

Robert Cook said...

"What's an 'excess death?'

"Is there a quota?"


You're being willfully obtuse. That is, you're playing dumb.

Eleanor said...

Some of those deaths are the direct result of the vaccines. As time goes on and long term effects of the vaccines become better known, the number of "excess deaths" may or may not continue to rise. Whether the CDC shares those numbers with us or not, if they go up, the actuaries at life insurance companies will use those numbers to set the cost of purchasing policies. The reasons for excess deaths might get hidden, but the numbers themselves cannot. Morticians will let us know if their business is booming, too.

StephenFearby said...

Low-grade inflammation (in normals) increases as one grows older. It is present at younger ages if one has an inflammatory disease (autism, schizophrenia, bipolar, etc, etc.) Also, metabolic syndrome.

Increased inflammation results in diminished immune system competence. The current buzzword for this is immunosenescence. (Currently 30,100 hits on Google Scholar.)

Physicians are trained to prescribe drugs. Functional Medicine doctors prescribe a wide range of (probably, possibly) effective nutriceuticals.

One of the more interesting nutriceuticals is the putative vitamin PQQ (pyrroloquinoline quinone, currently 34,100 hits on Google Scholar).

For example:

The Journal of Nutritional Biochemistry Volume 24, Issue 12, December 2013

Dietary pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ) alters indicators of inflammation and mitochondrial-related metabolism in human subjects

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0955286313001599

YMMV

Birches said...

Here's an actuary comparing 2019 vs 2020 and some preliminary numbers from 2021.

https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/top-causes-of-death-by-age-group-0bf?r=bfvk0

Michael K said...

This the last time I will do what Cook should have done before posting nonsense (as usual). 100,000 deaths from drug over doses in one year.

That was 12 months ending in April 2021. The period of the lockdown and mass unemployment of the working class, as opposed to "the laptop class."

Misinforminimalism said...

So our government killed 200,000 Americans and we're not even parking a few Kenworths at the White House? Shame on us.

TheOne Who Is Not Obeyed said...

Please do keep in mind that the number of "Covid" deaths is highly overstated, as those are inflated from counting deaths WITH covid as deaths FROM covid, since hospitals had a financial incentive to mis-label the cause of death.

Achilles said...

Cancer Deaths are just starting to spike. You can't end screenings and non-emergency health care without consequences.

The Economic terrorism committed by the branch Covidians drove suicide rates and drug overdose rates massively higher.

The Oligarchs killed thousands of people "fighting" COVID and seizing power.

Pericarditis/Myocarditis have a 3-10 year window.

The Aristocracy has no humanity. The laptop classes that supported the lock downs while the working class suffered need to be humbled.

And people who support Trudeau and Biden will go down in history right next to the Vichey French.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

flu?

Good news - no more seasonal flu deaths! yippee!

Josephbleau said...

This report does not address the important question, which is how many people were saved by lockdowns vs how many died as a result of lockdowns. I think it is obvious that the people who locked down (laptop class) mostly got covid eventually anyway.

The goal of lockdowns was to keep ICU's from filling up. The only people saved were thus the ones who were turned away from packed ICU's and then died. I suspect that is a small number, I never heard that this was a big volume of people, it would have been all over the news. Does anyone think that lockdowns made a significant number of people never get covid? It only delayed it.

Temujin said...

There is a lot of half-information in those numbers and probably no small amount of just flat-out misinformation. Start with the CDC number of 911,000 covid deaths. How can we use that number- or any number- when it became clear after a year that anyone dying in those first 18 or so months were considered 'covid deaths'. If they died of something else, but were found to have the virus, they were considered covid deaths. In some health companies and municipalities, employees (read: doctors, medical examiners) were incentivized to declare cause of death to be covid.

We don't know and will never know how many actually died primarily and clearly from covid. Nor can we tell, aside from thousands of anecdotal incidences, how many seniors were killed by bad policy. We'll never know for sure. There are thousands of these deaths. Was it the disease who killed them or preening politicians?

And it'll be a few years before we know the impact on our society of our children losing a couple of years of education and socialization, though it will not be pretty as they get older in upcoming years. Not for them. Not for you.

And as we write this today, our government and other governments (see: Canada, Australia, New Zealand) are still handing out ridiculous policy to cover for their previous stupid policies. It reminds me of chronic liars, who get caught in a lie, and then tell further lies to cover the earlier lie, until they get so deep in it that they just throw off all pretense and go full throttle on ridiculousness hoping those around will keep buying the lies. At this point, one has to willingly be throwing in with the lies to think schools should be closed, or people need to wear masks everywhere, or that vaccines should be mandated as many times as a random politician thinks necessary.

I have a very hard time looking at the CDC in the same light as I did in 2019. Especially when the current CDC Director looks like she is in high-panic mode literally every time you see her. She has the look of someone struggling mightily to keep it all together. So much disinformation coming from the High Priests of Science. It's going to be hard to regain their status any time soon. Maybe cleaning house would be a start. Get some actual scientists who simply report on actual science, not so many political animals, or people with awful human characteristics such as displayed by Anthony Fauci over the years.

Michael said...

Plus no one died of old age. So there is that.

Robert Cook said...

"This the last time I will do what Cook should have done before posting nonsense (as usual). 100,000 deaths from drug over doses in one year."

So, this stat, referring to the 12 months ending April 2021, (one year into what we can call the "Covid Era"), represents an increase of 28.5 % from the year ending April 2020, an addition of about 22,000 drug deaths. The increase in the previous year (ending April 2020, as I read it) had been 56,064. This increase for the two years of 56,000 + 22,000 drug deaths may have nothing to do with the COVID lockdowns, or it may, but there is no further information given that can lead to this conclusion. Even if we accept for argument's sake that this increase was due to COVID lockdowns, an additional 78,000 drug deaths for the two years beginning May 2019 falls far short of accounting for the one million excess deaths claimed by the CDC.

I don't assert the CDC's stats are inviolably accurate or true; however, one cannot simply shrug their claimed number of excess deaths aside simply because one does not want to accept it as valid. Perhaps a close reading of their data will give the lie to their claim, but one must still find that data to effectively discount their claim.

Edmund said...

A friend is an actuary that studies death trends for insurance companies. She's been doing deep dives into the numbers. You can read some of her work here: (it's free)

https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/?r=cmj3x

Suicides are up. Drug overdoses are up. Auto accidents were up. (But for all those, the numbers vary by age and sex.)

Beasts of England said...

Maybe the should try Obama’s phraseology: Deaths Saved or Created.

Jim at said...

Excess deaths? Bullshit.
Washington state just had its first flu death in two years.

In other words, a disease that kills thousands every year just happened to disappear for two years.

Bullshit.

rhhardin said...

Eventually the death rate tracks the birth rate regardless how sick everybody is.

Spiros said...

Counting Covid deaths is political (Trump! is a killer) and amenable to outside meddling and manipulation. And it does seem like local, unelected health officials wanted to maximize the number of Covid deaths (i.e., counting influenza deaths as Covid deaths). So excess death is a better figure. But we should have been given a range of excess deaths caused (or contributed to) by Covid not a single figure.

Also, I wonder how many excess deaths in the Middle East were caused by George W. Bush's degenerate wars? Probably ten million, maybe more.

n.n said...

Aside from excess deaths recorded at planned parent/hood facilities in New York, Michigan, and New Jersey, excess deaths were attributable to delayed, denied, and stigmatized early, effective, safe treatments, and mandate(s)-induced collateral damage, which tracks the data from Britain, Denmark, Israel, and a diversity of geographical and municipal regions. Ironically, while the non-sterilizing vaccine(s) in general distribution may have reduced hospitalization and deaths from Covid-19, historically excessive vaccinate-related adverse events, the inoculated are correlated with excess all-causes hospitalization and deaths, and overall higher rates of hospitalization and deaths from the Covid-20, 21, and 22 variants, and unknown risks on a forward-looking basis than their immune or otherwise unvaccinated peers.

n.n said...

Suicides

Self-abortions.

Lucien said...

I think the idea of calculating excess deaths is that it finesses the issue of dying with COVID19 vs. dying from it. The obvious difficulty is the error rate — we don’t really know how many people would have died (I think the base annual rate was about 2.8 million for the US), and so must estimate. But we still would like to know how many deaths are directly attributable to the pandemic vs. how many are attributable to the society’s response to it — so the dying with/dying from question can’t really be dodged. Were any deaths from the disease avoidable, or would there have been more without the measures taken?

How many jobs would have been lost, businesses closed, overdoses incurred if government had shut nothing down, but solely based on the fearfulness of the population.

Maybe the best eventual analysis will come from comparison across nations, but even there, underlying demographics may be confounding variables.

meep said...

Howdy -- this is meep aka Mary Pat Campbell, who writes at the link Birches & Edmund links to. I'm a life actuary, which means I count dead people. (Deaaaath) We're really popular, life actuaries.

I can give you various definitions of excess mortality, and over at the Society of Actuaries, they've even published technical papers on it if you want to get fancy.

Here is their most recent update:

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2022/us-population-mortality/

They've got some nice Tableau dashboards you can click through on, if you'd like.

When I write, I'm trying to address non-technical audiences, so I did some videos, etc., on it over here:
https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-nuggets-videos-on-suicide

Here's the short version:

Most of the excess mortality for the whole population is COVID. But if we slice it up into age groups, the vision changes. For kids, there's almost no excess mortality (suicide did go up a little for teens). For adults under age 45 -- there's a lot of excess mortality from non-COVID causes: drug overdoses, homicides, and car accidents. I've already posted on homicides ( https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/homicide-trends-1968-2020-and-provisional), wrote a little about drug overdoses (https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-for-working-age), and my car crash stuff is old so will be writing some more about that soon.

I'm kind of busy right now, so that's it for me today, but I may come back to see about questions later and answer them on my blog.

meep said...

And don't make me whack some of y'all about dying "with" COVID and dying "of" COVID.

Okay, I gotta go back to writing about life insurance underwriting. Later.

John henry said...

So how come more people died under Brandon than under PEDJT during comparable periods?

Especially since under Biden we had widespread "vaccination" (It is not really a vaccine but it makes people feel good to call it one) as well as better knowledge and drugs for treatment and all the low hanging fruit (People with serious co-morbidities) had dies off/been killed off?

“Anyone who’s responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United States of America.”

Brandon, October 2020 debate. At that time there were 220m deaths from (or with) Chinese kung flu. And here we are 800m deaths later and Brandon sees no reason to resign.

But we do get a cool story about him leaving a dead dog on a constituent's front porch. So there is that.

https://youtu.be/KtnNesvzsO4?t=59

John LGBTQBNY Henry

tim maguire said...

Next go through them and tally up the deaths caused by lockdowns to see how they compare with a plausible estimate of the lives saved by lockdowns.

Conrad said...

I'm not sure what everyone is arguing about. Covid undoubtedly killed hundreds of thousands of people in the US, and millions worldwide. Figuring an exact number of deaths caused by the disease itself is difficult, but a lot people died. Does anyone really question this?

The lockdowns and other secondary effects ALSO killed a lot of people due to increased suicides and murders, drug overdoses, and deferred medical attention. Not as many deaths as were caused by covid itself, but a lot. Beyond these deaths, a lot of people suffered physically, mentally, socially, and financially as a result of the lockdowns, etc.

rehajm said...

Yah. Flu deaths?

John henry said...

Last week and the week before there was talk about how the govt was going to refine the numbers to get the total chinese kung flu count down. They were going to report only the number of people who truly died "of" or "from" chinese kung flu and exclude the rest.

I expected that this would get the number down to 100m or so. Based on CDC statements over the past 2 years.

I've not seen any more on that. Hows that working out?

John LGBTQBNY Henry

tim maguire said...

TheOne Who Is Not Obeyed said...Please do keep in mind that the number of "Covid" deaths is highly overstated, as those are inflated from counting deaths WITH covid as deaths FROM covid,

That's why excess deaths is a useful metric. We expect X number of deaths each year. We got Y number of deaths last year. If Y > X, then something caused more deaths. By looking at excess deaths, "they would have died anyway" and "died from vs. died with" become meaningless distinctions.

wild chicken said...

Piffle, pish-tosh and rubbish! Stuff and nonsense!

The commenters have spoken.

Michael K said...

At least Cook made an effort instead of the usual BS. The CDC is the last place I would trust about Covid as it got heavily politicized by Fauci, et al. Someday we might figure all this out, like flu disappearing, but I suspect the usual suspects will be successful in covering up the real crimes. I'm still reading that RFK Jr book. If half of what he writes is true, we are in deep trouble.

CWJ said...

Responding to Michael K, Robert Cook wrote -

"Even if we accept for argument's sake that this increase was due to COVID lockdowns, an additional 78,000 drug deaths for the two years beginning May 2019 falls far short of accounting for the one million excess deaths claimed by the CDC."

Michael K made no such claim. All he claimed was that "a lot" of the deaths of those 18 to 64 were overdoses. His main point was that deaths in that age range were up 40%, an age range where covid rarely causes death. The "overdose" portion was just supplemental, not central, to that larger point. This was all contained in the portion of Michael K's comment you quoted. So what's your real problem with the comment, and why did you find his reference to overdoses so triggering.

Bruce Hayden said...

I think that this is pretty old news, and the cutoffs in the reported data seem designed to undercount the number of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 vaccinations. We appear to know that number is significant, esp with elite athletes, with top athletes dropping like flies now from 2nd, 3rd, etc vaccine jabs. Instances side effects, like myocarditis, brain bleeds, etc are skyrocketing. So has the total mortality. Insurance companies are now reporting significant excess deaths.

Big Mike said...

The CDC statistics do not pass any level of sniff test. They have, within the past couple months, admitted that they have no real handle on deaths of COVID-19, versus deaths with COVID-19, the latter meaning they died of something else, but were also positive for COVID. As I write this, I remember the anguished mother complaining about her son allegedly dying “of” COVD, and not due to the bullets in him. It made me wonder whether COVID-19 had partially morphed into a get out of jail free card for gangbangers.

Jim at is not the only person to note that during the time of COVID deaths from flu — and other upper respiratory ailments — essentially disappeared.

TheOne Who Is Not Obeyed said...

"By looking at excess deaths, "they would have died anyway" and "died from vs. died with" become meaningless distinctions."

If you consider "killed by infection from a virus" and "killed by the predictable outcome of feckless government policy" meaningless, then yes, they are meaningless distinctions.

Sorta like looking at the cultural wasteland of the inner city and rural black family in the US and its creation at the hand of government policy and saying "well, they was gunna be poor anyhow" vs "the Federal government created a crisis by design that has led to the terrible state of and poor outcomes for black families in America".

If we're going to understand what's next, it's useful to make meaningful distinctions of this nature.

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

Enough deaths to torn our lives and freedoms upside down. But not enough to peak the curiosity of the media to dig into how it happened.

The idea that you have to rely on the people who had a hand on creating the pandemic to be the ultimate authority going forward is an end of days type thing.

After everything goes to hell, survivors will look back and point to this time as the beginning of the end.

Kirk Parker said...

It is amusing, in a sick gallows-humor sort of way, to see our resident Commie defending the government.

dbp said...

The number of excess deaths, with no Covid is listed as 212,945 at the CDC site just now. This reflects the low-end of deaths caused by secondary effects: Things like the response to Covid and Covid patients crowding hospitals. As the story noted, some of those who died of Covid in the last 2+ years, would have died anyway. I believe it's at least an open question whether Covid mitigation saved, or lost net lives. If we didn't lock-down, close schools, bankrupt businesses; would the Covid deaths be lower than the 911,000 reported? The question isn't easy to answer: There are countries which did more than us and those which did less and there doesn't seem to be any correlation between how tightly they clamped-down and their ultimate death rate. I'm certainly open to the possibility that the (at least) 212,945 were the only preventable deaths.

Night Owl said...

"That set up a secondary health crisis, as people canceled cancer screenings, ignored warning signs of heart problems or possible strokes, and failed to receive the kind of medical care and support they needed.... "

Are we supposed to pretend to be surprised by this? Very early on, even in this blog comment section, it was obvious to some people that this would happen. Many people warned the lock downs would cause more harm than good. And we were dismissed as "Granny killers".

People should be held accountable for the damage inflicted worldwide on people, businesses, and economies. It was predictable and unnecessary. And amazingly they're still forcing many children to wear masks, causing ongoing developmental damage to them. And firing people for not taking "vaccines" that don't work.

The fraud Fauci and the CDC should be vilified. But instead, the shameless propagandists, who were financially sponsored by "vaccine" pushers to spread fear and panic, will instead waste our time presenting these predictable outcomes as "news".

Christy said...

I'd be interested in seeing the excess death number broken out by state.I hear a lot of concern about people who didn't get medical treatments because the hospitals were overwhelmed by covid patients, but here in Knoxville I had no problem scheduling or getting a colonoscopy or a mammogram. After the first couple of months the cancer center was as busy as ever. Was my experience typical of most Americans? Were postponed treatments mostly click bait headlines or self-imposed?

Maynard said...

I am not seeing the total number of deaths per year listed anywhere. Maybe I missed something.

If I recall correctly, it has been around 2.8 million and rising slightly every year before Covid, as per CDC statistics.

How many Americans died in 2020 and 2021?

Ann Althouse said...

"I'd be interested in seeing the excess death number broken out by state."

Go to the article. There's a chart.

Ann Althouse said...

"Plus no one died of old age. So there is that."

Your sarcasm is unwarranted. This is exactly what the article is about and why "excess deaths" matters. Did you miss the line "Some of those covid deaths are not, strictly speaking, excess deaths"?

n.n said...

People should be held accountable for the damage inflicted worldwide on people, businesses, and economies. It was predictable and unnecessary.

Atlas and the domain experts at the "Great Barrington Declaration" were right to advise a risk-based, focused approach.

n.n said...

to spread fear and panic

Social contagion historically progresses viability in excess of pathogenic contagions, and is a first-order forcing of taking a knee in faith and in protest.

MadisonMan said...

I do wonder how a statistical measure like "excess death" works in a time when baseline deaths are changing. I suppose the math is defined somewhere nicely by a Journalist?

Mattman26 said...

"At one point last March and April, the mortality numbers came very close to returning to normal."

That was of course right when the mass vaccination program went into effect. I wonder if we'll ever figure out how much of the subsequent spike in excess deaths was simply the result of new waves of Covid infections (which by itself doesn't seem like a great endorsement of the vaccines), and how much may have been caused by the vaccines themselves.

Yancey Ward said...

"Last week and the week before there was talk about how the govt was going to refine the numbers to get the total chinese kung flu count down. They were going to report only the number of people who truly died "of" or "from" chinese kung flu and exclude the rest."

Let me explain how that is going to work- (1) every death that was assigned as from COVID before January 20th 2021 will continue to be a death from COVID; (2) every death after January 20th 2021 will be considered to be with COVID, except in Florida and Texas.

Yancey Ward said...

"I'd be interested in seeing the excess death number broken out by state."

Go to the article. There's a chart.


Don't bother with the article- go directly to the source.

Yancey Ward said...

Scroll down to table 1, and choose your state.

Yancey Ward said...

The non-COVID related excess deaths surely skew much younger than COVID related excess deaths. The QALYs lost are probably going to surpass those from COVID soon enough, if they haven't already.

This wasn't caused by the pandemic- it was caused by our reactions to COVID, and especially those policies pushed from the top down. I wrote it several times- at some point we won't be able to find a single person who will admit to having supported the lockdowns and all the other non-pharmaceutical interventions, and it looks increasingly likely no one in the future will admit to having supported vaccine mandates for anyone.

Yancey Ward said...

Christy wrote:

"I'd be interested in seeing the excess death number broken out by state.I hear a lot of concern about people who didn't get medical treatments because the hospitals were overwhelmed by covid patients, but here in Knoxville I had no problem scheduling or getting a colonoscopy or a mammogram. After the first couple of months the cancer center was as busy as ever. Was my experience typical of most Americans? Were postponed treatments mostly click bait headlines or self-imposed?"

I live in Oak Ridge- my experience is the same- after early May 2020, life here was pretty much completely normal. I think the experiences, though, depend on what states we are talking about. I have family in the northeast, and their experiences were definitely different from mine. I do know that the hospital here in Oak Ridge was much less busy in July of 2020 that it was before or is today (my mother spent a couple of nights there in July of 2020 with a heart problem). I imagine some routine screening was put off by a combination of choice and coercion from the state governments.

dbp said...

@MadisonMan,

The CDC gives technical notes on how they predict expected deaths:

"Methods
Counts of deaths in the most recent weeks were compared with historical trends (from 2013 to present) to determine whether the number of deaths in recent weeks was significantly higher than expected, using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). The ‘surveillance’ package in R (2) was used to implement the Farrington algorithms, which use overdispersed Poisson generalized linear models with spline terms to model trends in counts, accounting for seasonality. For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and an upper bound threshold based on a one-sided 95% prediction interval of these expected counts is used to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Estimates of excess deaths are provided based on the observed number of deaths relative to two different thresholds. The lower end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed counts to the upper bound threshold, and a higher end of the excess death estimate range is generated by comparing the observed count to the average expected number of deaths. Reported counts were weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks."

Until Covid came along, we can see that their predictions were pretty close to the actual recorded death counts by week. If anything, they predicted higher deaths than actually occurred from the end of 2018 until the pandemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

tim in vermont said...

Face it, this pandemic is depressing. It's gonna kill people for that reason, like recessions are known to kill people. We also have fentanyl pouring over our border with Mexico. The Chinese communists are prosecuting an opium war against us. Biden ended any serious attempts at controlling the border, which has made that aspect of it worse.

Basically, the excess deaths marker on the CDC graph is misleading, since it is designed to look at a single reporting period, the standard deviation is calculated by reporting period, one week, which is ok for short blips, but if the deaths are over that line week after week, month after month, as they have been, the excess deaths shown on that graph are an underestimate. I always figured that the space on the graph between "expected deaths" (pretty much the average deaths for that week of the year) and "excess deaths" (above the excess deaths line) accounted for the "slop," the deaths not caused by COVID directly, but the response to COVID by everybody individually and the government. Doctors and hospitals were open during the shutdown phase, but lots of people made a personal choice not to go. Of course that's just a judgment call, and given that COVID causes strokes, heart attacks, etc, after the infection has receded, and tests won't show it, we will never be able to get a solid handle on the numbers.

Maynard said...

Thanks for the link Yancy.

Based on CDC statistics, there has been an increase in deaths overall in 2020 and 2021 of over 1 million people (almost 600K per year).

How we attribute those deaths is political, in part because of the way WuFlu deaths were categorized. However, there is no getting around the fact that the Wuhan virus and our governments response to it has caused a massive increase in deaths here in the USA.

It will be interesting to see what the death toll will be in the next few years. Will it go back to under 3 million because the virus killed off the most vulnerable?

It is interesting to consider that one country very highly concerned with over population is China. Coincidence?

Nancy Reyes said...

it is not just in the USA: Here in the Philippines, they estimated 700 thousand deaths in the first 11 months of 2021,which was 154 thousand more than the previous year.
Covid was listed as the cause of death in 75 000 people, but the highest cause of death was ischemic heart disease, and other deaths were from diabetes, stroke, high blood pressure and cancer.
Many people avoided going to the clinics for fear of catching Covid, and many people could not afford their medicines due to unemployment etc.

tim in vermont said...

"However, there is no getting around the fact that the Wuhan virus and our governments response to it has caused a massive increase in deaths here in the USA."

And personal choices to stay away from hospitals and doctors' offices, and flooded medical facilities, which were made worse, of course, by vaccine mandates of people who had already acquired immunity via infection, and then quit. Any final judgements that categorize deaths will be tainted by the politics of the data scientist making them.

Gerda Sprinchorn said...

Tim maguire, Professor A, and meep have this right.

Looking at excess deaths gets around the very real problems of distinguishing "dying with" from "dying from", and the number is so big that it puts to rest the notion that covid has not been a big killer. Meep's work provides further support by showing that the excess deaths are concentrated among those known to be susceptible to covid.

You can quibble that some of the excess deaths are due to lockdowns, but there is no way that delayed health care and other factors caused a million excess deaths. So maybe not all the 1 million excess deaths are due to covid, but its a lot. Plus, it is plain to the naked eye that many people have suffered severe health problems from covid.

gilbar said...

Robert Cook said...

a more detailed argument, supported by stats


here you go data from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics indicate that there were an estimated 100,306 drug overdose deaths in the United States during 12-month period ending in April 2021, an increase of 28.5% from the 78,056 deaths during the same period the year before.

..estimated overdose deaths from opioids increased to 75,673 in the 12-month period ending in April 2021, up from 56,064 the year before. Overdose deaths from synthetic opioids (primarily fentanyl) and psychostimulants such as methamphetamine also increased in the 12-month period ending in April 2021. Cocaine deaths also increased, as did deaths from natural and semi-synthetic opioids (such as prescription pain medication).

Christy said...

Thanks for the link Yancy. I didn't even try the usually pay-walled WP.

Lots to correlate and digest.

Narayanan said...

Someday we might figure all this out, like flu disappearing,
-------
what if endemic CoVID has supplanted Flu?

what is flu story for Rest of the World?

Bob Boyd said...

What's an "excess death?"

Excess Deaths are calculated using the formula Z = X + Y

Where
Z = Excess Deaths
Y = People who would still be exchanging gases if it wasn't for Fauci's illegal GoF experiments.
X = People Hillary Clinton no longer trusts.

Narayanan said...

let us try some Jedi Speak to solve this conundrum

COVID = disturbance in the force
CDC = cannot trust COVID numbers etc >>> affected by the disturbance

pre Covid - can we assume CDC reliable?
can we extrapolate in some fashion from pre-Covid tabulated numbers? for 2020 and 2021
[there would be no column for Covid related deaths]; /flu would show up in extrapolate!/

can we do Δ

what are the results >>>> asking Meep : if this is congruent with what SOA does/did?

Kai Akker said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Wa St Blogger said...

Looking at excess deaths gets around the very real problems of distinguishing "dying with" from "dying from", and the number is so big that it puts to rest the notion that covid has not been a big killer. Meep's work provides further support by showing that the excess deaths are concentrated among those known to be susceptible to covid.

I don't think anyone argues that Covid did not kill people who might not have died so easily without it. Excess deaths are a reasonable proxy for the impact of Covid on the population. It has also been mentioned that there possible other deaths that could have been caused by our response to Covid. That is a debate worth having. The shame of it is that the debate was not really allowed to happen as it should. In the future we will eventually analyze this without the political overtones and get to some level of truth, but it may take a while as people with careers on the line will need to suppress the results for decades to come.

What we do not know now is whether the policies (such as lockdowns) reduced excess deaths or increased them. Did they reduce them in the short term but increase them in the long? Only a deep analysis of the mortality rates of different regions using different responses will give us these answers. An increase in certain types of deaths in the future might be traceable to policies in the past 2 years, but cause and affect will be hard to prove, we may have correlation but unable to draw causation. Will future drug and suicide deaths decrease in the near future because those susceptible to that had earlier exits due to the lockdowns? Will cancer and heart disease increase due to poorer screening due to the lockdowns? Will other age related deaths decrease because Covid culled them earlier than expected? Did certain responses lower other deaths but with higher covid mortality and did certain responses lower covid while increasing other deaths? Or did we get higher covid AND higher other, or lower covid and lower other?

A deep analysis would be very useful to give us the guidance on what to do when Covid 25 hits us. But will we have the political will to be honest or will we be more interested in winning elections and controlling the narrative rather than saving lives?

Robert Cook said...

"Michael K made no such claim. All he claimed was that "a lot" of the deaths of those 18 to 64 were overdoses. His main point was that deaths in that age range were up 40%, an age range where covid rarely causes death. The "overdose" portion was just supplemental, not central, to that larger point. This was all contained in the portion of Michael K's comment you quoted. So what's your real problem with the comment, and why did you find his reference to overdoses so triggering."

Nothing triggering, just a challenge to his broad, unsupported assertion that "The statement that 'excess deaths' are from the virus is nonsense" and that "a lot" of the one million excess deaths--which turns out to be not "a lot" at all--were drug deaths rather than deaths from COVID.

Robert Cook said...

Gilbar @4:43:

I discussed those stats, and they belie Michael K.' assertion that "a lot" of the one million excess deaths were actually deaths from drugs.

Assistant Village Idiot said...

@ Robert Cook - agreed. The claim that "a lot" of deaths were drug OD and not covid had the clear meaning that we were wildly overestimating covid deaths. MikeK weasels out of these things over at Chicago Boyz, too. He also tries to sell the idea that lots of this is flu - as if we had back-to-back flu seasons that are 20x larger than usual for no identifiable reason.

If there are increases in all those other things, why? If there is more heart disease during the time of covid, doesn't that have to mean that some deaths which are called heart deaths have some covid influence on them? The accusation usually is the opposite, that things are unnecessarily being called covid when they really aren't. But the numbers suggest the opposite, that we have an increase in other causes with no ready explanation why that would be. It is mere hand-waving to say "Oh, it's isolation or giving up that is killing them." Any previous data on how much isolation and giving up it takes to kill people? I didn't think so. It just feels good to say it. It's also weird to see people make the claim that because a lot of these people were old and might have died anyway that they shouldn't be counted as "extra." Does anyone have a clue what the word "extra" means? There is a baseline of expected deaths, which included old people with medical conditions already. This is over a million more. These are people who would not be dead if it were not for the virus. What one labels that, calling this one 60% heart disease and 40% covid and the next one 40-60, does not really matter. Without covid, there would have been fewer of those heart deaths.

Howard said...

So basically Covid did to the US in 2-years what the US did to Iraq and Afghanistan in 20-years. Karma ran over Grandma

David Ermer said...

How many excess deaths did China have?

tim in vermont said...

I have a hard time believing that the medical professionals who work in hospitals would falsify test results to make the flu disappear. I have a fishing buddy who is a lab tech in a hospital, it's not happening or he would be bitching about it if if were happening. These easy slanders of people, made without evidence, are kind of unbecoming of people who claim to want to understand what is "really happening." Not to mention that this same collapse of flu cases happened in countries across the world, in all hemispheres.

Virus expert Professor James Stewart, at the University of Liverpool, says: 'Immune system cells come in and help destroy the first infection, and if another virus comes along that same response will fight it off.'

Dr Groppelli adds: 'Viruses are parasites. Once they enter a cell, they don't want other viruses to compete with. So the virus already in the body will effectively kick the other parasite out.'

On a population level, it means if enough people have one virus, others will have nowhere to go and cannot spread.

A study by researchers at the US Centre for Disease Control concludes it is at least possible that this has happened in some regions, and that coronavirus could effectively 'muscle out' influenza in the body's respiratory system.

Viral interference may well have been the reason 2009's swine flu pandemic never took hold in the way many feared it would
- Daily Mail

MikeR said...

Excess deaths has always been a good stat to use, because it's really really hard to know who exactly died from COVID. However, the article does point out that some of the deaths are because of COVID countermeasures:
"Adalja said the excess deaths associated with the pandemic but not directly caused by the virus suggest that in a crisis such as this, the country should favor targeted rather than broad public health interventions." Wow.

Jeff Brokaw said...

The vast majority of COVID19 deaths were folks aged 80+, and most of those with comorbidities, so it is nearly a 100% certainty that many of those were “pulled forward” from this year, next year, etc. We should expect the number of deaths in that 80+ group to be much less than normal for a few years. The implications of this should be obvious.

Compare that to the deaths in the under 65 group, especially under 45-50, were people with a lot to offer for many years to come. Workers, mothers and fathers, brothers and sisters. Those are prime of life years.

Counting deaths like a “bean counter” is useful for bean counters but is ultimately deceptive and simplistic to the rest of us.

Jeff Brokaw said...

@tim in vermont said “I have a hard time believing that the medical professionals who work in hospitals would falsify test results to make the flu disappear.”

Maybe the testing regimen did the falsifying (if there was any) — how would we know the difference? Much cleaner, if one was looking to do that.