February 7, 2022
"Perhaps nowhere is more vulnerable than Ocean Shores... the tsunami that could accompany a 9.0 rupture would wash over all of it. People could try driving out..."
"... but officials expect roads to be buckled and sunken, or covered in power lines, trees and debris. The expected subduction would cause the entire area to abruptly sink up to seven feet; the shaking could cause liquefaction of sandy soils before the tsunami reached shore.
People could try running to high ground outside of town, but Ocean Shores sits on a six-mile-long peninsula. Those who live toward the southern end would be about eight miles away from high ground. Depending on their location, residents might have only 10 minutes after the shaking stopped before the wave started washing over them.... The best option may be to get on a rooftop or to climb a tree....
Dozens of other waterfront communities are also at risk....
To improve the chances of survival, officials in Washington State have proposed a network of 58 vertical evacuation structures along the outer coast and advised considering dozens of others. They could provide 22,000 people with an option for escape, although thousands of others would remain out of range.
Each structure could cost about $3 million.
Vertical evacuation structures have been embraced in Japan for years, in the form of platforms, towers and artificial berms..."
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96 comments:
Maybe CNN could move to Ocean Shores. Two birds...
IgotsoupsetreadingthisarticleIknockedmycoffeeover.Ofallthekeysthatcouldmalfunction,theonewithinclosestrangeispredictable.
Would the vertical evacuation centers be like Flak towers?
One Berlin flak tower had a capacity for up to 30,000 people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flak_tower
A tsunami tower might not need to have 11 foot thick walls. Also it would only need to hold people for a few hours on rare occasions so there is that.
Our new national socialists can learn a lot from the old National Socialists.
Seems like developers, not the genpop should pay for them, though.
John LGBTQBNY Henry
There's what? like 6 thousand people in Ocean Shores? And nearly NO POC's?
And NO! people that aren't RICHIE RICH RICH??
Who Cares if these capitalist pig dogs live or die? In fact shouldn't we be Praying for their demise?
I mean, it's not like they're republicans or anything, but they're STILL capitalist pig dogs
Ann Althouse said...
IgotsoupsetreadingthisarticleIknockedmycoffeeover.Ofallthekeysthatcouldmalfunction,theonewithinclosestrangeispredictable.
2/7/22, 6:43 AM
YIKES!!!
Coming from a long line of Beach Crackers in North East Florida I can still remember my elderly grandfather telling me that only fools build or live right on the ocean, along earthquake fault lines or at the foot of a volcano. But what passed for everyday common sense in 1956 is suspect if not vilified today. So I guess that these days you just buy your ticket and take your chances.
Boondoggle.
Maybe the people should just move.
Althouse "space" issue reminded me of Homer Simpson's grandpahttps://youtu.be/4hPShoKFWic?t=84
Where people choose to live for the natural coastal beauty nobody thinks these will be eyesores? Liquefaction will get em, anyways...
@Althouse
Confounded by your compound, I thought that you were doing the Sheepman from Murakami's A Wild Sheep Chase.
NYT offices at 620 Eighth Avenue occupy the 2nd to 27th floors. The people who are always writing these panicky costal flood stories must be near the bottom...
I've been hearing that the Big One will level LA any time now since the '70s. How's that going.
This sounds like someone's grifting for taxpayer funds.
I just saw a picture of Obama overseeing (maskless of course) construction of his Hawaii mansion. On the shoreline. To go with the one on Martha's Vineyard. He doesn't seem concerned about global warming or tsunamis.
Lol- what’s soupstreading?
Btw- there’s got to be an acronym for that line!
Ok- soupset, then…
I remember reading an article about "The Big One" that appeared in a magazine a handful of years ago. I think this was it, from "The New Yorker" back in 2015.
The Really Big One
It stuck with me so much that I secretly (well, not anymore) fear for our family members (kids and grandkids) living in Washington. I love the west coast for it's beauty. But since reading that article, every time I take a trip to California, Washington, or Oregon, I quietly say thanks as our jet takes off from SeaTac, SFO, or LAX.
When it does happen, and it will happen, there will be some enormous amount of gerrymandering needed to keep Democrat numbers up in Congress.
Yep.
YOLO.
Sounds like something the government could waste a lot of money on, then the structures could stand for decades, un-used, decaying...
When my oldest started at UW (the Washington one, that is), I gave him a bugout bag in case of That Earthquake and told him to go around the lake on his way to the Cascade foothills, not over either of the floating bridges. (We'd lived in Seattle when he was a child, some years after the first floating bridge sank beneath the almost nonexistent waves on Lake Washington, but I used to commute to Redmond over one of them and it always seemed precarious...)
Then he joined a fraternity, and his concerns over the Cascadia Fault were assuaged somehow.
Along the lines of vertical structures, perhaps they should build a stairway to heaven.
The only time Ocean Shores will ever make national news.
We had rental houses in Aberdeen for years just north of there for years.
The population of Ocean Shores Triples on a Sunny summer weekend. If the Tsunami happens in winter it will be awfully lonely.
Wow $174,000,000 to protect 22,000 people. For $7800 per person I will provide 22,000 bubble wrap suits that will provide floatation and protection from banging into stuff when the tsunami hits. By the way has anyone seen those Government N95 masks that they are supposedly handing out?
This is still the scariest magazine article I've ever read.
Why isn't the government spending trillions of our dollars to stop plate tectonics?
"Boondoggle."
At our expense. I don't mind people living on the coast, in earthquake zones, or below sea level in the path of hurricanes. But let them pay for the privilege. WA, CA, NO, I'm talkin' to you.
I have little sympathy for peeople that live in an area that is, with 100% certainty, going to get wiped out at some point.
Great opportunity for some graft. Even better would be to build high speed rail evac trains.
I guess building the towers will be worth it if it keeps people in the threatened communities from moving to my state.
It you can't blame it on climate change then it doesn't matter.
The Cascadia is a beast of a fault zone, and long overdue. The whole region from southwestern British Columbia to northwestern Oregon is at tremendous danger from the shaking alone. I was offered a VERY nice assistantship to do my doctoral work -- in Geology -- at UBC in Vancouver, but declined. They said I was the fourth student that year to cite the Cascadia as our reason for saying No.
When it pops, it will make the San Andreas appear tame.
While this might seem to be a "meh" event for most of us, it won't be. True, most of us won't be effected directly such as with injury, loss of life or property destruction. Still, this event will quickly hit the pocketbooks of millions. The amount of damage that will be done, expressed using scientific notation, will be huge and will ripple through the economy.
Having said that, nothing realistic can be done. The triggering event is simply not stoppable.
A Red-Blue political rather than topographical flood map should have accompanied the article.
Cascadia Subduction Zone = the Juan de Fuca plate is colliding into the North American plate
Here's that 2015 article I had read,
The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest\
Article - The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest,
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one
Author, "When the Cascadia fault line ruptures, it could be North America’s worst natural disaster in recorded history"
Don't we have a Tsunami warning system? Doesn't Ready.gov tell you to make plans for these disasters? I live in the MidAtlantic, we have to plan for Blizzards, Hurricanes, torrential rains, droughts, etc. People who live on the coasts have to plan for their emergencies, too. If you live there, know the risks and take precautions. When I lived in OHIO, I had a sleeping bag, snacks and water in the car in case I got stuck in snow overnight.
Re: Fukushima -- As of September 2018, one cancer fatality was the subject of a financial settlement, to the family of a former nuclear station workman while approximately 18,500 people died due to the earthquake and tsunami.
We're (US) not building new reactors because of our unfounded fears of radiation while millions are living next to ocean beaches subject to killer tidal waves, tsunamis and hurricanes.
Wikipedia
An alterntive: declare that all areas in the tsunami zone are now Ocean Shores National Preserve. The feds will buy your place for what you paid plus inflation, in which case they will return the land to its natural state, or you can stay and take your chances. If the tsunami comes before you die, you're toast.
Look it's the same story as for those that choose to live next to the Mississippi River or Miami Beach, or Galveston. You are living in an area that is prone to the occasional catastrophe. Accept the risk or move, but please don't ask for mountain-moving governmental programs to save you.
By the way, I believe the government should have programs to gradually recover barrier island shorelines and flood plains and either restore them to ecologically-beneficial preserves, or in the case of floodplains, crop land. We shouldn't have hugely expensive insurance programs bailing people out time after time.
How much to protect from the Yellowstone Caldera?
Or a smallish asteroid impact?
Hell how much to minimize an EMP attack?
The US Mint needs more printing presses than the Iranians have centrifuges.
“To go with the one on Martha's Vineyard. He doesn't seem concerned about global warming or tsunamis.”
Goddamit, Big Zer0 stopped teh Rise of teh Oceans back in 2008. Get with the program!
Man, if I lived up there this would be scaring de Fuca outta me!
We've got one set of kids and grandkids living in Seattle, another set of kids and grandkids living in Wenatchee- on the other side of the Cascades in a high desert region. They've all read that devastating article on The Really Big One, and they joke (darkly) that at some point the family in Wenatchee will have an oceanside property.
Suggestions: 1. Make a National Seashore out of it. Public domain all the houses and clear them out. Problem solved. 2. Make the residents pay for vertical evacuation centers via a special assessment. Future homes built have the assessment included in price. Hell, I have to buy my own earthquake,fire,tornado insurance, let them buy their own tidal wave insurance. If I want a tornado shelter, I hire one of the two local companies to install it. 3. Require every resident to sign a liability waiver and let them do as they please.
Granted, it's been near 30 years, but if I remember correctly, the risk of the type of displacing earthquake that generate tsunami, close but off-shore of the US West coast, was low. There are earthquakes all the time, they hear them on the old SOSUS hydrophones. But the displacement, as the geography reveals, happens on land. And the steep drop off close to the shore cuts the bottom out of any remote generated tsunami making inundation much less.
But, why special "towers". Build some big tall hotels with the bottom 3 floors only having walls perpendicular to the shoreline like they have in Hilo. People run up to the high floors, tsunami comes in, washes away the non-structural parts below, washes around the perpendicular to flow structural members and then washes out. People come down. Those giant multi-story lobbies in Hawaii beach front hotels, built after 1960, are that way for a reason. Especially in Hilo, outside the seawall, because Hilo harbor is a funnel if you look at the bathymetry. Honolulu offshore drops off steeply. And as I said, when the bottom of the tsunami, the entire water column is moving, hits the wall, it reflects and gets cut off rather than pushing up, piling up and thus only the top of the column runs up to inundate.
Tens of thousands would die in a 9.0 earthquake even without the tsunami. How about they show us the flood modeling from a 7.9, which was what hit San Francisco in 1906. Per Wikipedia, there was an earthquake believed to have been in the 8.7 to 9.2 range in the Pacific Northwest part of the world, but it was on January 26, 1700 — most since then are in the 6.0 to mid-7 range. (Alaska does get 8.0 quakes surprisingly frequently.)
"Wow $174,000,000 to protect 22,000 people. For $7800 per person I will provide 22,000 bubble wrap suits that will provide floatation and protection from banging into stuff when the tsunami hits."
Still too much. Give them all Y passes so they can take swimming lessons.
Also, if you really want to be afeared, then consider a displacing earthquake generating in the Atlantic. The inundation of the US east and Gulf coasts would be massive. Fortunately, this is a very unlikely event. There was some "panic" media about a giant gas bubble beneath the seafloor off Virginia that could erupt.
I makes more sense than buying solar panels from China, or wind turbines. It costs money to mitigate the undesirable whims of Mother Earth. Better we don't cripple our economy with unworkable energy boondoggles so we have the money when we find out what is actually in store.
I enjoy these articles where no matter what people do it will be futile because nature will still kill all of them with whichever disaster is the subject of the article.
"See? See? We told you but you didn't listen, now feel the wrath of God - I mean, Gaia - you filthy sinners!"
If the individual States wish to spend money on this, I say go for it. I'm not certain that a Federal response is needed. Perhaps tax laws could be rewritten so that building in tsunami-vulnerable locations is discouraged.
If this happens, it will a disaster whose effects will be felt throughout the country, and it will have a ripple effect throughout the economy.
However, when I lived in Bellingham, Washington, I was much more concerned about Pacific Rim volcanoes, after having toured the Mt. St. Helens’ devastation. We lived about fifty miles from Mt. Baker, which was potentially ready to erupt at any time, and we could see the snow covered peak from our deck. As I drove about town, I could often see the steam rising from the top of Mt. Baker. It has not erupted yet, but it could probably seriously damage Bellingham if it did. Western Washington has two natural threats, the fault line and the volcanoes, yet we seldom hear about the volcanoes.
Yes, there is a Tsunami warning system. The problem is if the cascadia fault lets go right off the coast there will be just a few minutes before the tsunami arrives. Your warning will be the 9.0 earthquake shaking.
There's been talk about tsunami structures for years. Westport, on the other side of the entrance to Gray's harbor, has a reinforced roof at Ocosta Elementary School that could hold 1,000 people.
Towers would cost about $8,000 per person. I bet a stocked liferaft would cost less.
"Sinners in the Hands of an Angry Gaia."
Why not make those evacuation towers dual purpose structures? Hang and energy generating windmill on the towers. If you are going to blow a substantial chunk of a billion dollars on something, you might want to get some electrical energy out of it.
The neurosis is strong in this one.
“Be afraid. Be very afraid!! Covid. Global warm..., er, climate change. Tsunamis, Canadian truckers. QAnon. Trumpers. Republicans. Etc. NYT, et al.
I think everybody in the flood zone should be issued a set of swimmies. Like the free Wu Flu masks that Biden has promised. They should keep them on or about their persons and be fined if they don't.
Thus public safety will be ensured without unsightly and expensive Tsunami Tsky Tscrapers.
Further south, Crescent City, CA has experienced 32 tsunamis. The one in 1964 was the most destructive tsunami to ever hit the Pacific coast.
Ocean Shores was started in the early 60's with the intent of building casinos on the beach. The casinos were never allowed.
The real estate prices in Ocean Shores fluctuate up and down. The prices have always been prey to developers making big promises about future prosperity, and then nothing happens.
There is a single two-lane highway leading onto the peninsula. Yes, that road would be overwhelmed during an exodus.
I normally dismiss environmental hysteria, but in this case they are right. The tsunami in Japan a few years ago killed thousands even though high ground is right there. If the earthquake is close offshore the first warning is the wave.
The SETAC airport (seattle) is on an old mudflow from St. Helens. When St. Helens blew, we got a dusting of ash in Ft collins, 400 miles away. Not something to ignore.
Personally, I would not buy a house on the beach or by a fault. Many people have an exaggerated sense of safety. In the old days 50+ yrs ago, beach "bungalos" in Fl were shacks and disposable. If a hurricane hit, you fled and wrote it off. More sensible that what people do now.
“By the way has anyone seen those Government N95 masks that they are supposedly handing out?”
Actually, yes. They are by Customer Service at the Fry’s (Kroger’s) closest to us in PHX. I possibly heard that you are only supposed to take three of them, and it wasn’t clear that that was per visit, or total, and since I may not have heard that, or it wasn’t aimed at me, I take a handful every time I walk by there. Of course, we don’t wear them (and we have several hundred surgical masks squirreled away already that we aren’t wearing), but there is always a possibility that the next time will be worse. Fauci just got caught funding (again) the same cutout organization that he (apparently) used to fund Gain Of Function research on SARS type bat born coronaviruses in Wuhan. I am also stockpiling 70% and 90% alcohol, bleach. plastic sheeting, etc.
This brings us back to risk calculations.
We've been through covid, and know the government is the worst at risk calculations.
If you want to live on Coastal Shores, you should be aware of the risks. If you are not, that's not the govts fault. Only so much tax money can be allotted to protect the stupid.
Risk calculations brings up the Obama Mansion being built in Hawaii. On the beach. His second home on an ocean shore line.
So is Obama not capable of doing risk calculations? Or does he not believe his own lies about CAGCC, and rising sea levels.
The Juan de Fuca plate has three tectonically distinct areas, north, central and south. The middle one, opposite Oregon, has had substantially more small earthquakes than its neighbors. The north and south are more locked and more in need of a rapid adjustment.
I read once that there have been some monster Atlantic tsunamis caused by a big piece of the volcanic Azores calving off into the ocean. Undersea is a definite terrain of landslides.
When I go to the Oregon coast I like to sleep above the tsunami evacuation zone.
When I lived in Seattle, they used to tell me that one day an earthquake from the Cascadia fault would shake the area and liquefy all the earth on Mt Rainier. Then snow and mud would mix and this would slide down, speed across the intervening space, and cover Seattle nine feet deep in mud. Then they'd lean back in their chairs and gaze at my horror in a satisfied way and turn to look at Mt Rainier in an approving way as if their pet pit bull was growling and lunging at the end of a chain. But somehow no one ever predicted that progressive prodding would shake the structures of state and city government so the wholeliquefiedintoamud-chaos and ran over the citizens buryingtheirsoulsalive.
(Typing on my new keyboard)
I went into google maps street view and looked around Ocean Shores. These houses should NEVER have been built. The landscape should have been left in its wild state, not despoiled by all those houses. The problem described in the article has been known for a long time.
"... a foolish man... built his house on sand. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell with a great crash" — the last words of the Sermon on the Mount.
"There is a single two-lane highway leading onto the peninsula. Yes, that road would be overwhelmed during an exodus."
Get a truck so you can tear over the front yards when the time comes.
I was reliably promised the whole thing would be under water in a few short years due to global warming. Speaking of which, I see Obama has purchased yet another home mere inches above sea level, this one in Hawaii. When you bet millions of dollars against the oceans rising, doesn’t that make you a climate-change denier?
I don't know why they don't just issue face masks to the locals. I understand they protect against everything.
I'm within spitting distance of the lunacy of Portland, awesome, but I still live in the PR of Oregon. I think wildswan's wholeliquefiedintoamud-chaos sums it up well.
I think the supercharged mudslides off Rainer are called lazars.
from that 2015 New Yorker article, “When that tsunami is coming, you run,” Jay Wilson, the chair of the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission (OSSPAC), says. “You protect yourself, you don’t turn around, you don’t go back to save anybody. You run for your life.”
In other words, don't be like Lot's wife.
"Ocean Shores was started in the early 60's with the intent of building casinos on the beach. The casinos were never allowed."
Maybe there aren't casinos, but all Ocean Shores residents are gambling with their lives.
Around 1980, on the Labor Day weekend, I drove out to Ocean Shores for a time share pitch and the free goodie they were giving out. The drive out there was through a driving downpour storm. The rain at Ocean Shores was coming down practically horizontally. I listened to their pitch, said no, and got my cheap-charley gift. Don't remember what it was.
At twentythree feet above sea level, the residents get what they paid for. The danger is acceptable until it isn't.
"Further south, Crescent City, CA has experienced 32 tsunamis. The one in 1964 was the most destructive tsunami to ever hit the Pacific coast."
The entire West Coast of North America experienced those tsunami. Tsunami are ocean-wide/global events. How big the waves are, how much inundation depends on the bathymetry off to location. For the West Coast of North America, Crescent City has the bathymetry to let the waves build up as the wave rises up the seafloor. The 1964 tsunami came from the Alaska earthquake that wiped out Valdez, AK, Hilo, Hawaii, and other places. If you are on the Big Island of Hawaii and experience and earthquake that knocks you down, run uphill...fast. If it was offshore, the waves will arrive before the watchstanders at the warning center reach the building and get a location. But if you are in California, the odds are the earthquake is inland. The 1989 San Francisco earthquake did generate slosh in the bay of less than 1 foot, no real energy.
Sufficient unto the day are the disasters thereof. If you plan for eternity it's going to cost a lot.
There's a name for the effect that I've forgotten, but if you reimburse people for disasters it raises the value of their homes, but only to the advantage of the first owner at the time of the policy beginning. It lowers the value of everybody else's homes because they do the reimbursement. Likewise for escape towers.
Based on Washington State's response to Covid, these homes whould forcibly evacuated before someone gets hurt. Funny how risk mitigation for rich people's coastal homes always seems to be on politicians' to do list while homelessness and drug dealing on city streets is just like the weather.
According to the precautionary principle if we can imagine a disaster, we must pay to mitigate it. So we should pay whatever it takes to build these towers, even if we have to sink pilings down to the bedrock of the subduction zone. The amount of money in the world is only finite yet I can imagine an infinite number of disasters (the universe contains an infinite number of objects, any one can hit the Earth), so at the limit the precautionary principle says to spend zero dollars on an infinite number of possible disasters. Anything less is dishonest because we are just denying the whole range of possible disasters.
Why isn't the government spending trillions of our dollars to stop plate tectonics?
They are as they're blaming climate change for increased activity.
And I wish I was being sarcastic.
The SETAC airport (seattle) is on an old mudflow from St. Helens.
Rainier.
And the lahar flows from Rainier are the real threat during an eruption as the mountain will collapse as opposed to exploding like St. Helens.
I face more of a threat from the thugs at TESC than I do from earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. But the Nisqually quake in 2001 did give me pause.
They're likely to all be rich liberals anyway, so maybe it's God's way of starting fresh.
Or they could escape on their Pelotons...
Btw, Cape Disappointment is only about 40 miles due south.
Maybe everyone can hang out there...
From the NYT article...
Bringing the expected casualty numbers down is difficult when the response planning has largely been left up to each community, Mr. Goldfinger said. A comprehensive federal solution with accompanying funding is needed, he said...
No, a comprehensive federal solution with accompanying funding is not needed. What's needed is for the people whose lives and property are known to be at risk to deal with the issue themselves rather than expect others to pick up the tab.
A big tsunami caused by these faults shifting would provide little warning time. It is one reason, among many, I never lived on a coast.
I live about 15 miles inland from Galveston, TX. And the thing is that we always have advanced notice when a large hurricane is coming, and we can run away! I don't know how anyone can run away from an earthquake, a volcano, or a tsunami.
I live about 15 miles inland from Galveston, TX. And the thing is that we always have advanced notice when a large hurricane is coming, and we can run away! I don't know how anyone can run away from an earthquake, a volcano, or a tsunami.
"Get a truck so you can tear over the front yards when the time comes."
Get an ultralight and learn to fly it.
As noted, Ocean Shores is just a particularly egregious example. Tillamook, Cannon Beach, Newport, Brookings, Crescent City and any other number of low lying areas in the PNW are at risk. After the '64 earthquake in Alaska that decimated Crescent City, another earthquake created a tsunami warning. I was working as a Park Aid at Prairie Creek Redwoods State Park, about 30 miles south of Crescent City, and was tasked with driving our State of California '56 Willys pickup, out to Gold Bluffs Beach to clear all the tourists off the coastal strip before, as the Chief Ranger phrased it: "It was too late". After doing so, my fellow Park Aid and I, being guys, and college students, with all the maturity and wisdom that implies, stayed out on the beach atop a minor rise, so we could watch the anticpated, but never realized, tidal wave.
We're all going to die, later but probably sooner, when the Yellowstone thingie goes. Truly terrifying consequences, based on past occurrences.
--gpm
Mostly the ash from a Yellowstone super caldera event would blow east on prevailing winds. If so, we in Oregon will ship you some food. Not enough to save starving millions but enough to feed your elites. You're welcome in advance.
Off topic, really, but I re-read that New Yorker article by Kathryn Schulz about 'the really big one' and, while I live in Eugene and perhaps ought to be more concerned (the dams breaking...), what did strike me is that they are still giving away those tote bags to new subscribers: I wonder how many the marketing department bought?
No tsunami in Vermont. Move before it's too late.
This may be a good time to buy some property in the nearby, non flooding areas. It will be the future beachfront. You could make a killing after the big one hits.
I predict nothing will be done.
Remember fall-out shelters? If there is ever a nuclear explosive groundburst upwind of you, you will very much want to have one. But you don’t have one now, and aren’t planning on acquiring one. Same with these towers.
If a tsunami does submerge a largish city, possibly there will be some built afterwards, to prepare for future events. Not before.
Back in the day, a tsunami was a wave created by an earthquake, in the region of Asia. A tidal wave was a wave created by one in the western hemisphere. Sounds like cultural appropriation going on to me.
I am from Florida. I have always intentionally lived at least ten miles from the coast and on the least likely to get flooded area (all of Florida is a flood zone, some areas much worse than others).
I have ZERO sympathy for people who choose to live in extreme danger zones. When this area eventually gets wiped out it should be made a state park. Coastal areas should not be eligible for property insurance. They drive up the costs for people who are more responsible. If you want to build a home on the beach you should be able to afford to have it washed away on your own dime. That would bring back the beach cottages and get rid of a lot of McMansions, high rise hotels and crappy condos the rest of us are forced to subsidize.
Ocean Shores is going to be a blip on the radar if the same sort of earthquake that happened back in 1700 happens again.
We did the survey work after the Nisqually earthquake, back when. Depending on the moisture level in the soil when the next earthquake happens, the soil liquification alone is likely to take out every single cut and fill everywhere across the entire western halves of Washington and Oregon, as well as a significant swath of British Columbia.
Basically, what's going to happen to the majority of the road network is what happened at Oso, back in 2014. Anywhere there's an unstable hillside, slope, or fill--Liquefaction, followed by landslip, followed by "cut the hell off from everything". Really dry, drought-like conditions could mitigate it all, but if it takes place during a particularly, shall we say, damp period...? Bowl full of jello, sloshing. As well, consider that many structures were not built for earthquake resistance, and that the ones which were used a lot of untreated tie-downs which reacted badly to the environmentally-friendly preservatives used for the last thirty-forty years, and have corroded well past the point of utility in an earthquake?
Odds are pretty good that everything from about Vancouver, BC down to Ashland, Oregon and west of the Cascade crest is going to be one big disaster zone, with no intact road network, no power, and no means of even getting relief sent in. We did some contingency planning with the Navy, but after the magnitude of the thing dawned on everyone, they pretty much just put it in the "Yeah, if that happens, we're screwed...".
If I remember right, the projections for what the worst-case scenario would look like if we just had a repeat of the 1700 earthquake happen during modern times would look about like what would happen in China if the Three Gorges dam failed, but on a somewhat smaller scale. It would certainly destroy the economy in the Northwestern United States for a generation or two, that's for sure.
Tsunami isn't even the biggest problem. The bigger problem is what happens when you have ten thousand Oso-like events, spread across a three-state region. Our wargaming basically sucked in every single US military construction asset and as much as we thought we could pull in and still support, and it was six months to a year to even get the road network back to a point where you could supply a lot of the state. Forget rescue--The biggest problem is getting the infrastructure back quickly enough to even evacuate people out of the region. Digging survivors out of the rubble? Ain't happening. If you can't self-rescue or are lucky enough to have neighbors who can help? You are screwed.
Brutal honesty has to acknowledge that they've allowed construction and development across a huge swath of totally unsuitable landscape. If you're unfamiliar with the Oso landslip, well... Read a little, then extrapolate to every unstable hillside, road cut, or road fill you might happen to drive by every day. I honestly wouldn't live in Western Washington or Oregon at all, and I'm afraid we're going to pay a terrible price for developing it as much as we have. I suspect that the whole region is going to be nature preserve after the next subduction fault earthquake, and that's maybe all it ever should have been.
You want an eye-opener, talk to a geologist who's done core sampling on the eastern shore of Lake Washington, sometime. Ask about the sequencing for the lake going brackish, and how they find layers of material that could only have come from the shorelines of the Puget Sound. You might also ask how that stuff probably got there, and then do some thinking about what that sort of geologic event would look like, in modern times with all the development...
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