October 15, 2021
"For the first time since Donald Trump left office, he has surpassed Joe Biden as the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election."
"Trump emerged as the favorite Monday at multiple offshore sportsbooks to return to the White House in 2024. On Wednesday, he became the top choice over President Biden at Smarkets, a London-based betting exchange. Trump also is now the favorite at Ladbrokes sportsbook in London.
According to Smarkets, the former president has a 20 percent chance....
Biden’s odds dropped to 19 percent (+426), and Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds dropped to 13 percent (+669).... 'Trump’s odds have been improving all year and in particular since Biden’s poll ratings began declining this summer,' [said Smarkets head of political markets Matthew Shaddick], 'There is absolutely no sign of Republican voters deserting him....'"
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33 comments:
Do these odds-makers take actuarial tables into account? Tump’s the kind of guy who will go like gangbusters until he drops dead of a heart attack, probably on a golf course in FL. IMO, he’s no more likely to live to see the end of Joe Biden’s only term as president than Joe Biden is.
@tim maguire, or assassination. 21st century Democrats are more than crazy enough to try it.
Trump's advantages over Biden are (1) he's four years younger and (2) not a walking corpse. So, there's that.
Wasn't the Las Vegas Review-Journal one of the few papers who endorsed Trump?
Deal with it, bitches…
It all depends on the "mail-in ballot" situation.
Of course, the Vegas line is not purely predictive. It is partly reactive. So a passionate bunch of Trump fans with disposable income, all making bets on The Donald would have the effect of turning Trump into a favorite, as bookmakers sought to drive down their payout in the event that Trump actually won.
Two words! Grover Cleveland !!!
As much as I supported Trump when he was President, and believe that he truly did "Build It Better" when he was in office, I don't want to see him run again. He has too much (mostly fake) baggage and has not distinguished himself since leaving office. I don't believe that he can win.
The William Hill sportsbook also gives odds on Elvis crashing a UFO into the Loch Ness Monster…
I disagree tim. Donald J Trump likely worn out on me genetic longevity lottery and no matter how crappy his lifestyle is he will live to be 94 years old.
Part of me hopes he wins the election in 2024 because obviously the Democrats haven't got the memo quite yet number one and number two if he wins perhaps maybe we can move I'm from all this conspiracy election fraud talk.
Tump’s the kind of guy who will go like gangbusters until he drops dead of a heart attack, probably on a golf course in FL. IMO, he’s no more likely to live to see the end of Joe Biden’s only term as president than Joe Biden is.
His life expectancy is probably 90. I am not as much concerned with a POTUS who drops dead of a heart attack as I am with one who is possibly demented and surely on a boatload of drugs that causes him to sleep a lot and forget where he is.
The problem with Uncle Joe is that he was always a corrupt and opportunistic political hack. His current medical condition is a distraction from what the man has been.
A leftist facebook friend of mine is seriously talking about armed rebellion in the event of a Trump second term--stocking up on weapons, buying books about infantry tactics, etc. A wacko, no doubt, but it suggests that some Democrats are already giving up the contest--the constitutional one, that is.
they are both too old.
Biden is clinging to a few brain cells. Trump is a superior person to crook Biden and his crook party. That said, why can't we have someone younger who is articulate?
Trump's advantages over Biden are (1) he's four years younger and (2) not a walking corpse. So, there's that.
(3) demonstrated competency in the job.
Age is not determinative. Look how fit and sharp Shatner is at 90.
Trump should pick a really good VP, and quit the day after his Inauguration, just to spite the left. Or stay, and show them that the reality of his second term is indeed much worse than their most fevered nightmares.
Listening to the eloquence of 90-year-old Capt. Kirk right after his first experience in "Space, the final frontier" confirms the huge range of mental vigor in our elders. President Trump is at one end of the spectrum and Joe Biden is at the other.
Alas, I fear this is true:
"Whether Trump wins or loses [in 2024] his candidacy will be terrible for everybody. He demonstrated no interest in actually controlling the government. He didn’t drain even a corner of the swamp, he just annoyed it."
Ha,Ha. Like Biden is even going to be the nominee. I'd like to know the odds of him finishing his term out?
That Pompeo and Pence both are considering entering the primary is interesting. These are men who know Trump pretty well. What I think it means is they know that Trump is likely to run again and will be picking his VP from the field of contenders. A version of "The Apprentice" if you will.
This is how much Joe Biden (and Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg, Ron Klain, Merrick Garland, etc., etc.) suck. After all these years of non-stop destruction of anything Trump, including the censoring or jailing of those who agree with him, or even acknowledge some of his policies were good. The entire global media has been attacking him for 5 years now without end.
Even with all that, he's gained a lead in this. THAT is how much Joe Biden sucks.
Let's go Brandon.
But I have to agree with 'Can of Cheese for Hunter': Both are too old. Biden is like having a squash on your kitchen counter that you go ask important questions of and expect an actual rational answer. It's not going to happen. Trump is...well...Trump, but getting old. We need someone younger, articulate, smart, with courage, who 'gets it'. I know of someone in Florida.
"Of course, the Vegas line is not purely predictive. It is partly reactive." Betting lines are only predictive when first posted. And when first posted they are a prediction of how the bookie thinks the bets are going to come in, not their opinion of who will actually win. After that they are purely reactive and their only purpose is to lure an equal amount of money on each side of the bet. The bookie wants to have enough money from the losers to pay off the winners while he takes his cut from both sides. The predictive value of betting odds is in 'the wisdom of the crowd' not the prescience of the bookie. The line will change a lot between now and the election. That said, I think Trump would win if the election was held today. I.m not foolish enough to bet on what will happen three years from now.
Serious Question - Any Trump supporters put off my his recent statement that you will not vote in 2022 or 2024 if he tells you not to?
"So a passionate bunch of Trump fans with disposable income, all making bets on The Donald would have the effect of turning Trump into a favorite, as bookmakers sought to drive down their payout in the event that Trump actually won."
Or it could mean Biden sucks so bad that many people would prefer even Orange the Clown. I personally hope he doesn't run, as I really don't want to relive the 2020 election.
I don't know if Trump can win, but then I live deep in Democrat territory where people would vote for a dead dog or Joe Biden decaying corpse over Trump.
I'd want to know if Trumpism without Trump could win.
Also, DeSantis is the logical running mate, but he and Trump live in the same state. Would one of them move, or would Trump go with a less-known running mate, and how would that effect his chances? I don't think Pence will be on the ticket in either position.
"Whether Trump wins or loses [in 2024] his candidacy will be terrible for everybody. He demonstrated no interest in actually controlling the government. He didn’t drain even a corner of the swamp, he just annoyed it."
More TDS that misrepresents as wisdom. He did a pretty good job in spite of 99% opposition from the DC cabal.
who-knew nails it at 10:46.
When I first looked this Althouse post, my first thought was exactly how either or both parties could use this in a fund-raising appeal.
Lord Klanfiddler:
Maybe you weren't commenting on Althouse last year.
Right wing Trumper nutbar commenters on this very blog assured us that armed insurrectionist from the ex military and gun nut ammo storing wannabes would be inevitable if Biden stole the election. All we got was January 6th sightseeing tour.
Anybody threatening armed response is a coward to be mocked, including libtard nutbar 26th of July reenactment theorists.
Trump will be too old, and I don't care if he is still mentally fit when the time comes. Biden won't be running again, so his odds are already way too high- his party needs to replace him right now, in my opinion, but they screwed the pooch in picking Harris as the VP. You can't have a president in Biden's demented state- this is just pure insanity at this point.
"This is how much Joe Biden (and Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg, Ron Klain, Merrick Garland, etc., etc.) suck. After all these years of non-stop destruction of anything Trump, including the censoring or jailing of those who agree with him, or even acknowledge some of his policies were good. The entire global media has been attacking him for 5 years now without end.
Even with all that, he's gained a lead in this."
...and it didn't even take a year.
Howard: "Right wing Trumper nutbar commenters on this very blog assured us that armed insurrectionist from the ex military and gun nut ammo storing wannabes would be inevitable if Biden stole the election."
Another thing that never happened.
Which "bookends" nicely with all the actual things that happened or exist that Howard denies: antifa, hostages in Afghanistan, collusion, inflation, etc
The swamp wasn't going to be drained. Thinking that would happen was like thinking George W. Bush would actually change anything for the better. Trump was able to achieve things -- a good economy and high employment until COVID hit, border control, no new wars -- and that was much more and better than anything Bush or Biden has done. So I'm stuck between feeling that the page has been turned on Trump, but not wanting it to be turned on his policies.
“Serious Question - Any Trump supporters put off my his recent statement that you will not vote in 2022 or 2024 if he tells you not to?”
It neither puts me off nor does it inform when or how I will vote.
Amusing how Democrats keep mistaking conservatives for Democrats. It says something profound about the narrowness of their worldview.
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