"Among independents, however, Biden is about as unpopular as Trump was at this stage in his presidency. An average of only 39 percent of independents approved of Biden’s performance in the three polls taken between Sept. 18 and 26 that made data available for those voters; 52 percent disapproved. Trump’s comparable numbers among independents in three polls taken between Sept. 22 and 27, 2017, were 38 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval. That means Biden’s minus-13 net job approval among independents is statistically identical to Trump’s minus-12.... The CIVIQS poll, conducted for the progressive website the Daily Kos... estimates Biden’s net approval rating to be minus-17 in Arizona and at least minus-10 in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, all of which have Senate seats up for grabs in 2022.
Biden’s abysmal standing with independents spells disaster for Democrats in the midterm elections if it does not substantially improve.... Biden won independents by 13 points in 2020. To go from plus-13 to minus-13 in less than a year is an epic disaster. Republicans are standing by, ready to pick up the pieces from a crumbling presidency."
I'll just pick one hole in that. A poll asking about approval isn't the same as an election where you have to pick one or the other candidate. Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump.
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58 comments:
estimates Biden’s net approval rating to be minus-17 in Arizona and at least minus-10 in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia
all of which "supposedly" voted for Jo Biden?
Biden's supporters need to troll harder, that will fix it!
The Babylon Bee says it’s Trump playing 4D chess- lol
Imagine what they would be if Trump got Biden's press treatment and Biden got Trump's.
Ann wrote, "A poll asking about approval isn't the same as an election where you have to pick one or the other candidate."
Not a vote for a candidate but a vote against a candidate. A variation of the "anybody but Trump" meme -- the meme that gave us Joe Biden.
AA describes me.
Hard to imagine what there is to approve of. Easy to list things going wrong. What's going right?
"Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump."
And many of those "voters" were kind enough to get their ballots in with perfectly filled in ovals for Biden only with no other votes entered on the rest of the ballot.....and they did it in clusters so it made it very easy for polling personnel to count those ballots after the republican poll watchers were kicked out of vote counting locations.
Republicans gained 2 senate seats in 2018 despite Trump's terrible poll numbers. He lost 41 house seats. But some of that was just a return of many D seats that had been won in 2010 (61 Republican wins). If we're going to count on the "Independents" to save us, we're in big trouble.
Most idependents are just low information voters. They're the type that used to vote based on their Economic well-being (the 1940s cliche was The price of hogs) on election day. Right now, they're probably upset at inflation and the MSM criticism of Biden's afghanistan performance. Most of them are probably shocked, since they've been watching Oprah or NBC news and they've heard nothing but praise for Biden until now.
The majority will fall back to voting for D's in 2022. Based on history, the D's should lose the House. But with all the election fraud who knows what will actually happen.
Biden has the entire corporate Media supporting him while they were uniformly attacking Trump at the same point in his presidency.
Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump.
Midterm elections are referendums, not a choice.
Trump isn’t running next year, but Biden’s policies are.
Wonder what Biden's poll numbers would be like if the press had the same attitude towards him as it does Trump (or any high profile Republican)?
Keep in mind that those polls probably over-sample Democrats, too.
Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump.
Including the deceased and the multiple residence voters.
An epic disaster indeed... almost enough to make you wonder how real the numbers are.
Alternatively - wow, those who voted for Biden believing that a Biden administration would bring about - what was it again? A return to norms? The respect of the world? A respite from the unremitting racism and hate of the Trump years? The shutdown of COVID-19? Those people must really be wondering how he went so wrong so quickly.
Though based on events of the past four years, they'll probably just blame Trump.
Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump.
And I understand that upwards of 20% of registered Democrats would like to have that choice over again.
And there is the shithole of our duopoly in a nutshell. One party pisses on both legs, the other party takes over. Rinse, and repeat.
Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump.
I bet he got even more votes from people who didn't even know they were voting for him.
A 26 point swing can be a sign of an apocalyptically bad presidency. Or the sign of major fraud that got him into office.
I'm not bothered. You can't fake having guns, though the Quakers might disagree.
The left: 'It doesn't matter that everything is going into the shit can. we wuv Biden!'
Far Left Conspiracy Theorist Readering: "AA describes me"
Wut?!
Sherman, set the "Wayback Machine" to Early October 4, 2021....
Althouse: "A poll asking about approval isn't the same as an election where you have to pick one or the other candidate. Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump."
Uh , yeah, that in no way describes readering, an unmovable democratical.
"Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump."
It's cute we are sticking with the fictional idea that 2020 was a fair election. Kind of the same thing as saying the legal system is impartial and mostly fair.
as usual, someone can say it far better than me.
“A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep."
Saul Bellow
I'll just pick one hole in that. A poll asking about approval isn't the same as an election where you have to pick one or the other candidate. Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump.
That's a sane position. but it doesn't appear to be reality.
Which is to say the vast majority of people "approve" of whoever they're going to vote for.
Those independents who "disapprove" of Biden aren't going to vote for Democrat Senators who are in the tank for Biden.
And Mark Kelly, D AZ, is up for re-election next year. Unlike KS, you haven't heard one word about him being a "moderate" Democrat rather than a lockstep one.
That's two Democrat and 3 Republican seats that right now are all "lean Republican" with any honest prognosticator
So Biden got elected by people who were embarrassed by Trump
Did any Methodist vote for Biden
I'd take the WaPoo poll and the WaPoo reporters results and statements with about a pound of Diamond Crystal Salt. No way that what they have to say is "kosher".
They've got a safety net as large as the District of Columbia under good old Shufflin Senescent Senile Slow Joe. They are going to let him fall back to Earth as slowly as possible.
But I don't see anything that suggests Scranton Joe can reverse his precipitous decline.
Another article by Henry Olsen:
Four Easy Steps for Beating Donald Trump
National Review
September 25, 2015 8:00 AM
When I see an article that seems negative about Trump, I start trying to find out more about the author. If it’s an anti Trump article, I’ll add the subordinate name plus anti trump into my favorite search engine. It’s surprising how many are anti Trumpers, but leave it out if the bio and the article.
My gut feel is the actual numbers are worse for Biden, and there is a lot of shy Trump voters. The challenge is the so called token conservatives in the main stream media, are usually anti Trumpers.
Here is how bad it really is - President Biden has an adoring press that covers for him yet the poll numbers are awful.
Lucky for Joe that he has no financial or otherwise political ties to foreign governments for the press to investigate, no?
---Most idependents are just low information voters. [rcocean]
The great wishy-washies.
---They're the type that used to vote based on their Economic well-being
Something the Democrat policies and practices are putting at great risk, especially in the balloting that registers in the stock market.
The left: 'It doesn't matter that everything is going into the shit can. we HATE Trump.'
Thuglawlibrarian said...
Here is how bad it really is - President Biden has an adoring press that covers for him yet the poll numbers are awful.
Covers for him? The press is ALWAYS asking, the REAL Hard Hitting Questions...
Questions like:
The Press: "What flavor of ice cream did you get today, Mister President?"
Jo Biden: "umm, i don't know; i think they told me to say it was chocolate ripple"
The Press: "OHHHH!!!! That's SO AWESOME!!! That's going to be tonight's Headline!"
HEADLINE: Our Beloved President Biden is Getting Chocolate Ripple!!!!!"
tim in vermont said...Imagine what they would be if Trump got Biden's press treatment and Biden got Trump's.
Doesn't help you much at the voting booth, but if you're trying to rate presidents, then this is a big deal. Trump and Biden have equal numbers despite Trump fending off relentless scurrilous attacks from the same press that is willing to destroy itself in the effort to prop up Biden.
The media has been seditious.
Couldn’t get past the paywall. Maybe they explained this, but the only poll that matters is of registered voters with a recent history of voting in midterms. The rest is useless.
On a related topic, I will never forgive these doltish TEA Party pouters who gave away two easy Senate seats in Georgia because they fell for AFP’s lies or didn’t like Kelley Loeffler’s hair or were snowed by something turncoats Steve Bannon, Pillow Idiot and Jenny Beth (I’ll pocket that contribution) Martin told them to get them to stay home. For intentionally losing the Senate, these idiots deserve the scorn heaped on all of us by the rest of the movement.
And it’s easy to find out if they voted or not. I’ve spoken with several people (conservative, libertarian, and “independent”) who swear up and down that they voted for our Senate candidates but didn’t vote at all. Of course, we don’t know how you voted, but it’s public record whether or not you did vote. So we know who stayed home, preferring fairy tales and conspiracies to adult behavior. And this week the consequences arrived: two Soros-suckled, pro-criminal, anti-cop judges nominated by our New Democrat Senators to release murderers and rapists back into your North Georgia neighborhoods.
You are personally responsible for this debacle. And we know precisely who you are. You are responsible for these hug a thug judges with lifetime sinecure.
Yeah, elections have consequences, you morons.
And politics ain’t beanball.
Ignorance is bliss. If they think Biden is better than Trump...they are the ignorant. They will be paying for his ignorance for the rest of their lives.
I'm a single-issue voter these days. Do you think the VP should have the power to choose which electoral votes to count?
If both parties manage to nominate NO candidates, I'll be able to vote on policy issues again.
>>'It doesn't matter that everything is going into the shit can. we HATE Trump.'
April, please. Everybody knows that "shitcan" is one word. Like damnyankee.
"Obviously, Biden got many votes from people who weren't saying they approved of him, only that they preferred him to Trump."
The actual 'test' on who is better accepted is the fact that Biden could not possibly win another national election. Trump could, and possibly very well might be re-elected in 3 years. The fact that he's even a serious consideration tells you a lot.
Biden could, however, get re-elected as Senator from Delaware. We're not sure if anybody alive and breathing actually lives in Delaware, or like many business entities, people just hold official addresses in Delaware. In fact, does anybody reading this know anyone who lives and works in Delaware? Has anybody actually driven through Delaware? Is there a Delaware? Wait a minute...
Of course, the Press was Super Lenient with past President Trump...
remember? Trump likes ice cream (2 scoops!) This PROVES that he is WORSE THAN HITLER!!
Biden forgot why he was elected. He was elected because he is not Donald Trump. All he had to do is not be Donald Trump. Instead, he decided that he had to be Bernie Sanders.
No comparison of Biden's polls with Trump is valid because of the media and deep state efforts to demonize Trump. The same actors are doing everything in their power to prop up Biden.
As someone who values liberty, I have never understood why people don't despise statists, let alone vote for them. On a personal, non-political level, I can't abide bullying of any kind; so why should I feel more tolerant when the bully is backed up by the coercive powers of the State? And why would I support the bully in acquiring even MORE power?
"I'm a single-issue voter these days. Do you think the VP should have the power to choose which electoral votes to count?"
Usually single-issue voters do a more in depth analysis of their "single issue.' For instance they don't call them gun nuts for nothing. Now try re-writing your sentence to grammatically accurately reflect what the actual arguments were at the time, and whether your single issue extends as far as to say that there should not be a way to challenge elections on any grounds whatsoever, no matter how egregious the apparent election rigging, nor to let the issue play out in the courts, past an arbitrary date set by Congress.
All these points about election chicanery (which are probably not without merit), but nobody has mentioned what I think is the most telling of them all: The endemic bias in the polling community.
Let us not forget the pollster's predictions of Basement Biden's popularity before the election, which were wildly inflated compared to actual voting results, even as the election results were hotly disputed as already> being far too high in Biden's favor, due to fraud.
So, don't forget: These are numbers from the friendly pollsters. If it was Trump being polled, they'd be 10 - 15% lower still, even more unfavorable - just because of poll bias..
In 2020 Biden got out the votes but not the voters. So his voter base is much less than his vote.
Comparisons to Trump’s approval ratings at a similar time in his presidency ignore the dominant reason - the Russia collusion hoax. Remember that many Republicans believed Trump was a traitor at that time. Biden got to his low approval rating all on his own despite daily worship and PR from the media.
Witness said...
I'm a single-issue voter these days. Do you think the VP should have the power to choose which electoral votes to count?
...
Is this the one greatest comment in the history of the Althouse blog? It gets my vote.
DanTheMan: I would argue that "shitcan" is a verb and "shit can" is an adjective and noun.
Other opinions are solicited.
Biden got more votes than any other presidential candidate in US history, so his poll numbers just don't make sense. If I didn't know better, I might wonder whether the election had been fortified.
"Witness said...
I'm a single-issue voter these days. Do you think the VP should have the power to choose which electoral votes to count?
...
Is this the one greatest comment in the history of the Althouse blog? It gets my vote."
Since no VP candidate has ever said otherwise, it's actually a pretty lame basis to vote on. But since it's also an allusion to the bad orange man, I can see how some who can't seem to let go of the guy might think it's brilliant.
"Since no VP candidate has ever said otherwise, it's actually a pretty lame basis to vote on."
I think it matters what other candidates besides the VP think on the issue - it's pretty structurally important whether the executive branch has that much sway in choosing the next iteration compared to, say, the electorate.
"But since it's also an allusion to the bad orange man, I can see how some who can't seem to let go of the guy might think it's brilliant."
If the party is able to let him go, it'll be easy for me to do the same. But given the Panopticon's prioritization of outrage over content, I can see how some might think that unbelievable.
So many suburbanites hated Trump for personal reasons. I don't deny the possibility that election fraud cost Trump the election in key states, but half the voters really did prefer Biden, not because they loved him, but because they hated Trump. People who really hated Trump were determined to crawl over broken glass vote against him. Swing voters who liked Trump weren't quite so dedicated. Some only voted for him because they didn't like Hillary Clinton. In electoral politics, hate trumps love. Trump may be able to make a comeback if America is hating Biden (or Harris) three years from now, but I don't see Trump haters coming around by then.
Aggie said...
All these points about election chicanery (which are probably not without merit), but nobody has mentioned what I think is the most telling of them all: The endemic bias in the polling community.
Let us not forget the pollster's predictions of Basement Biden's popularity before the election
Heck with those, let's just look at the house race results, compared to the pre election predictions.
IIRC, the GOP won every single "leans Republican" race, almost every single "tossup", and close to 1/2 the "leans Democrat" seats.
Let's take 538:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/
They had 196 "Solid D", 27 "Likely D" (better than 75% chance Dem will win) (they got 2 of those wrong in IA), 7 "Lean D", 16 "Toss ups", and 12 "Lean R".
The Dems won 222 seats total. 196 + 27 = 223.
Since I know that they lost at least 2 of those 27 "Likely D", that leaves them with *1* (out of 7) "lean D" that the Ds actually won (in NV).
Realistically? Take the pollster's numbers and move everything to the Right 5 - 10%
Hey "Witness", how are you on vote fraud? You're good with it? You're ok with candidates who are pro-vote fraud?
You're against it, you claim? Then how does one deal with it in a Presidential election?
https://thevirginiastar.com/2021/05/18/six-months-after-the-2020-election-fulton-county-has-failed-to-produce-chain-of-custody-documents-for-18901-absentee-ballots-placed-in-drop-boxes/
The Democrat "vote counters" of Fulton County still haven't provided the chain of custody documents for more of their "absentee ballots" than Biden's "margin of victory."
Exactly how are we supposed to deal with that kind of election stealing?
Ok, if we're going to play this game, I'd prefer candidates who didn't instigate federal investigations through opposition research, didn't use said investigation to call into question the legitimacy of the victor, and didn't think trying to change the elector's actual votes was a legitimate tactic to winning. But hey, questioning the legitimacy of an election is only bad when Orange the Clown does it.
@Greg
That is an interesting link. I'm not convinced that missing documentation is the same as fraud, nor am I aware of any candidates that have come out as pro-fraud, but I am aware that Fulton county is the subject of ongoing investigation. Certainly none of this was sufficient to persuade my state legislature to choose a different slate of electors, though it has led to some tighter election controls since then.
It does in fact concern me more when a sitting President either doesn't realize, or doesn't care, about the fact that his notion of the Vice Presidential power to count votes essentially amounts to giving that position the power to choose the next President. The whole design of the system is about giving us the power to change policy (albeit with some limits designed to slow the pace of it). Carelessly messing with that system is far worse than the result of any single election, and especially far worse than bruising one man's ego.
@Witness
That is an interesting link. I'm not convinced that missing documentation is the same as fraud
Missing documentation of where over 13,000 votes came from, with no effort to find said documentation, is solid evidence of fraud.
Especially when you lied to drive out the poll watchers before engaging in more "vote counting".
"Counting" that took your State in teh NYT "outcome meter" from "> 90% Trump will win" to ">50% chance Biden will win"
nor am I aware of any candidates that have come out as pro-fraud
Then you're not paying attention.
Every single person who calls, for example, the GA election law changes "vote suppression" is advocating for vote fraud.
Every single person who opposes photo ID requirements for voting is advocating for vote fraud
Every single person who fought for decreased verification requirements for absentee ballots last year was advocating for, and fighting for, vote fraud
@Witness
you still haven't answered my question, just repeated your previous whine:
How do we stop a party from using vote fraud to steal a Presidential election?
If your answer is "we don't", then your complaint about Trump has no value
@Greg
Interestingly, the NYT meter was able to update its estimate precisely because of how accurate our reporting is. As counts came in from different precincts, the estimation engine could compare each precinct against historical data, relative party-registration, and factors such as in-person versus mail-in status of the ballots. Without
In other states, where officials were just updating totals without reporting them down to the precinct level, the NYT tracker took significantly longer to align to the ultimate result.
We've had Photo ID requirements in Georgia since I've lived here (nearly two decades), and as far as I know, basically nobody here opposes it. We automatically register citizens without a felony record when we process their driver's license at the DMV, and non-drivers receive a free voter ID when they register elsewhere (at any public library, courthouse, probably other places I don't know about). To be counted, a ballot has to be tied to a valid voter registration number, and duplicate ballots under the same registration automatically trigger investigation.
Under these conditions, chain of custody issues without some additional evidence are strong evidence of incompetence, but weak evidence of anything else. The idea that a sitting President's personal efforts to blow up the entire system are, frankly, the only consideration of any value at all.
PS: I totally understand the desire to assert victory and walk away. However, it is worth considering that some of us have a life outside of commenting on this blog. Cheers.
@Witness
Interestingly, the NYT meter was able to update its estimate precisely because of how accurate our reporting is. As counts came in from different precincts, the estimation engine could compare each precinct against historical data, relative party-registration, and factors such as in-person versus mail-in status of the ballots.
Yep. And until the Foulton County "vote counters" kicked out all watchers while claiming there would be no more vote counting, then started "vote counting" the second all the watchers were gone, Trump was so solidly in the lead that the NYT Needle was at "Trump wins"
And no, FL, has much better reporting. They publicly report all teh votes they've received each day, and who sent them in, making it much harder to add fake ballots once you know how many you need to steal teh election.
it's why Trump won FL by an increasing margin: because the Dems weren't able to cheat as much
Under these conditions, chain of custody issues without some additional evidence are strong evidence of incompetence, but weak evidence of anything else.
You can't possibly be that stupid.
1: Fulton County didn't allow an audit of the envelopes that all the ballots supposedly came in. Which means no way for outside investigators to check that the envelopes with the voter information actually exist, let alone have valid signatures
2: You make up 20k "Joe Biden" ballots. You have a little program go through your voter database, finding 20k ids that didn't vote. then you update your DB to say those 20K ids all did vote, then add in the ballots.
These are the kind of things that you can't get away with if you're forced to do the chain of custody paperwork
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