Less than two weeks before Christmas and with the number of new daily COVID-19 cases declining and local health providers getting the first shots of vaccine, the Madison and Dane County public health department issued a new order on Tuesday allowing indoor gatherings of up to 10 people.... Outdoor gatherings, previously limited to 10 people, will be allowed with up to 25 people....The new order will be in effect for 28 days, or the length of two COVID-19 incubation periods. The health department said it’s still safest to only gather with household members, but according to a Georgia Tech risk-assessment tool, the chances that at least one person in a gathering of 10 will be COVID-19 positive has dropped from 32% when the previous order was issued on Nov. 17 to 22% today. For groups of 15 and 25, the likelihoods are currently 30% and 46%, respectively.
Things have improved because of what we've been doing, and that's a reason to stop doing what we're doing? Isn't that the cue to invoke the name Fox Butterfield?
"The Butterfield Effect" is a term coined by James Taranto in his online editorial column of The Wall Street Journal called Best of the Web Today, typically bringing up a headline, "Fox Butterfield, Is That You?" later "Fox Butterfield, Call Your Office." Taranto coined the term after reading Butterfield's articles discussing the "paradox" of crime rates falling while the prison population grew due to tougher sentencing guidelines.
Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID? The "experts" say, go ahead go — go if it's 22%, but don't go if it's 32%. If we follow that expert advice, how long will it take before the chances go back up to 32%? Why aren't we saying what we're doing is working, so let's keep going with what's working? The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore.
पोस्ट्स
१८५ टिप्पण्या:
There has always been people who did not understand the fundamental difference between living, and trying not to die. The latter fret over every little aspect of their health. This pandemic has exponentially grown their ranks. Fucking pity.
“The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore.”
Hey now, you’re not sowing discord are you?
17 million “cases” (whatever that means) as numerator and 335 million Americans as denominator, then how in hell do you get a concentration of 20+% risk? This is new new math.
They're allowing this because they know that if they cancel Christmas a lot of people will ignore it. They're trying to preserve their control by not forcing a confrontation. After the new year authorities will announce that rates are spiking again, and therefore the lockdowns need to be reinstated.
Are we accepting the Georgia Tech risk-assessment tool without question? Sorry, I'm not buying the 22% or the 32% numbers without seeing the methodology. First, unless they are mis-quoting the model, "people gathering" won't be any different than the general population. This translates to a 2.2-3.2% chance that any single person is currently infected. I find that hard to believe.
So, if you are at the Kroger, there is a 22% chance that 10% of the people there have COVID. Does that seem reasonable?
Fancy studies don’t change the fact that 99.87% of people exposed to the virus don’t get sick and die. So please do fret over the 22% chance that 10% of your guests might have a bad flu bug. After all they cannot quantify what YOUR risk of being “at a party” with a guest who might have a chance of being viral means, but there is a scientific term for the likelihood of dying from or even getting seriously ill from such a flimsy encounter: not fucking likely.
"Things have improved because of what we've been doing" Ann says without evidence. We were "doing" the same things in November too, when things were getting worse. So were our actions to blame then, but somehow now the same actions are credited for a turnaround?
In reality, things got worse in early fall and then improved because that's what the normal virus / Influenza-like Illness curve does and has done EVERY YEAR in recorded history. Dane County's edicts have made no measurable difference and won't this time either.
We are doing a family gathering Christmas gift exchange this Saturday at my daughter's house. Fortunately she has an outdoor fire table where we can build a giant bonfire and make s'mores and be in the fresh plein air to minimize any unwanted exchange of precious bodily covid.
It's funny how so many people are in denial of what's coming. As a kid learning to body surf at Zuma drain pipes which is a neck breaking wave what I learned as a small kid is to look far far off into the horizon to try to spot little lines of darkness that indicated that a giant set was coming in. It's not too healthy to get caught inside if you know what I mean.
"The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore."
The Era of Political Stunts continues...
I have quite a number of neighbors who walk with masks on. Pretty safe to say that they are self-cancelling XMASS.
Due to some surprise surgery (surprise!) I'm suddenly in the highest possible risk category for death from covid and/or flu, despite being otherwise super healthy and fit. Yay me.
Here is what I say, and I don't want to die: nobody needs to take any precautions to safeguard my health beyond the old normal. Please restart the economy and your lives. I have three kids and a wife trying to run a small business.
-XC
Ann has figured it out. Or I should say, she knew all along. Covid was the crisis that allowed the Dems to steal the election.
Ann wanted boring. Barr will name a Special Prosecutor on the way out. Joe will be implicated. Joe will resign. Harris will pardon him. Drama!
We are so, so screwed.
"The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore."
What if that is the answer? What are you going to do about it?
You know that is the real answer.
Yes.
You answered your own question.
And you're surprised at the answer?
Was it not obvious?
The only real question is now what are the criteria for the petty tyrants to stop trying to order us back in our homes and wearing masks. Is it 50% vaccinated? 30%? 60% of 65 and older? deaths down to X?
That this question is not being asked nor answered tells you...
Something similar is going on in the UK - relaxed restrictions Dec 23-27. But they're saying Let Easter be the New Christmas, as if it will be over by then.
Meade said...
“The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore.”
Hey now, you’re not sowing discord are you?
No worries.
i was told repeatedly by the best and the brightest that the doom and gloom and subsequent lockdowns and what not being the only hope for humanity to survive would magically disappear after the election.
Because, you know, democrats really do care about freedom and the economy outside of the need to destroy them to win an election.
What if none of what you have been told up to now is correct?
How would that change your evaluation?
I suggest you look around your neighborhood for the bodies piled up like chord wood.
When you don't find them you can start asking better questions.
Experts? Right!
I see that experts are recommending that teachers be prioritized before most elderly who are 70+ for the vaccine. Who says crime doesnt pay?*
*That is, extortion. "We wont teach unless we get the vaccine."
It’s almost like contagious viruses come in waves that have natural peaks and valleys that play out regardless of how many masks you wear or how many businesses you bankrupt. But I just know we could defeat this thing if only government had the power lock you in your home and the technology to provide robots to see to your every need.
“The Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore”
Just so you know it’s going to be gloom and doom until Jan 21st. Then it will be morning in America.
Things have improved because of what we've been doing
How do you know that? Is it reality? Is it "science"?
I'd attend a mask-less orgy. Who give a shit??
"Why aren't we saying what we're doing is working, so let's keep going with what's working? "
If you're afraid, stay home. Why do you insist that everybody be as scared as you appear to be?
Thank Goodness God sent his only Son so we might have eternal life in Heaven, because Madison Liberals sure don’t want you to have one on Earth.
The numbers printed are to garner the approval of the innumerate, as they nod along and read.
I actually suspect you agree that any attempt to discern logic and reason in the proclamations issued by authority in response to COVID is risable. This simply illustrates it for those paying attention, who are few.
Good thing I'm not cynical about it.
We wont teach unless we get the vaccine."
>>
1) Not only is this extortion, but they are simply doing it to get to the front of the line, and then they will say (and I GUARANTEE IT):
"We can't teach in person because the kids will pass it amongst each other and infect their parents and grandparents, and we can't be a part of that MASSIVE MURDER OF EVERYONE'S GRANNY"
2) After everyone's parents and grandparents are vaccinated, welp it's summer vacation time. See ya suckers.
But hey, the teachers got their vaccinations, so they're able to travel and enjoy it while the others at the back of the line are still waiting.
Watch it happen.
What do the citizens of Madison actually celebrate on Christmas?? It’s certainly not the birth of Christ. Are there secular satanic temple songs they sing around the Science Tree at the Capitol? In-A-Gadda-Da-Vita???
Haha. Like the government has to power to restrict my free association. You and what army, asshats? Not relevant to me because I don’t live in a blue state with a bunch of power crazed incompetents under the delusion they run my life.
Sadly some people clearly have BSDM wiring and want to be controlled and ruled. My husband’s friend said the other day “lockdowns work. You have to earn your freedom.”
A. Fuck off, slaver; B. Stay home if you want but leave me out of it; C. I’m sure you can pay someone to dress up like a bureaucrat, handcuff you, and slap your face with a dildo if that’s what you get off to. But, as I said above, work that out on your own time and leave me out of it, pervert.
My wife and I are both 50 and have been very Covid cautious. We have not gotten together with family since Covid. Of course the joke is, we rarely got together with them before Covid.
So - definitely no Christmas gathering for us.
Stay safe AA enthusiasts.
Oh and where is that Thanksgiving super surge? Anyone?
>>"The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore."
Don't be naïve, Ann. A blind man could have seen this coming.
As has been discussed here before, Biden will claim credit for "defeating the virus" and the subsequent economic recovery, however great or small.
Any misfortune that befalls the US will of course be Trump's fault, until 2024 and perhaps beyond....
Phil Kerpen
@kerpen
New JAMA meta-analysis of 54 studies with 77,758 participants finds household secondary attack rate (chance an infected person will infect one or more people at home) is 18% if the index case is symptomatic and 0.7% if asymptomatic.
3:33 PM · Dec 14, 2020
Things have improved because of what we've been doing, and that's a reason to stop doing what we're doing?
Yes, if fewer people have the disease, then their are fewer chances for infection. Do you still get Polio or Small Pox vaccinated?
“The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore.”
Well they'd never say that, of course...
Things have improved because of what we've been doing
I guess the question is have things improved because the government issued mandates that people have actually followed, or have things improved because people modified their behavior on their own accord regardless of what the government says? Is it possible that people react to events beyond what is mandated by an authority? Would things be the same, better, or worse in absence of mandates?
"The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory"
Very naive to think otherwise.
Wisconsin has passed the peak of the current wave. Infection rates will likely continue to decline regardless of whether Governor Edicts gives you permission to see your family.
All lockdowns were a mistake.
AA's argument leads to even stricter lockdowns...if 22% is good, 11% is better, and 1.1% is even better.
But it will never be zero so we can never leave our houses.
OK for professors with nice pensions, but not for the rest of us.
"Why aren't we saying what we're doing is working, so let's keep going with what's working?"
Because we don't actually know what's working. For instance, the actual data says that masks do not prevent the spread. Yet, by far, the majority of Americans wear masks when out in a public place. Some even at home or while driving by themselves. We've been locked down as a society- throughout much of the world, for 6 months now. When it goes down people think that it's because of what we're doing. When it goes up, people think it's because of what we're doing. We're doing the same thing throughout the increases and decreases. Singling out certain anecdotal evidence is not science, but it does make for copy in newspapers and on TV. There has rarely been as much passed off as 'known science' as the back and forth on this disease. The fact is, we're still learning about what it does, and how it works, how it spreads. Even our theories on how it does spread seem to change every 30 days.
"Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID?" I would, but my wife would not. Which is why we would not go. I respect her level of worry over my acceptable level of risk. And that's how we have to live with this. We all know what could happen. We also know that well over 90% of those with the virus recover with little or no effect. Yes- there are some long-term effects with some people. So those of us in a high risk category need to be vigilant.
The rest of society should continue to more forward for the health of the greater society. Otherwise, we'll all get vaccinated and go outside again to find our economy and society is dead.
We wont teach unless we get the vaccine."
Michigan State University has mandated that starting in the fall semester of 2021 no one will be allowed on campus without proof of flu vaccine.
Aren't we SUPPOSED to develop herd immunity? Meaning that a majority of the population has either gotten the disease d'jour, developed antibodies?
Herd immunity, or community immunity, is when a large part of the population of an area is immune to a specific disease. If enough people are resistant to the cause of a disease, such as a virus or bacteria, it has nowhere to go.
Keeping the "herd" individuals isolated from each other is only going to guarantee that the disease will have a longer time to run through the population. Giving the virus more time to mutate.
A vaccine is one way to give herd immunity. HOWEVER, with viruses that mutate frequently and evade the vaccine there is not any guarantee that THIS vaccine will work against the old virus it was manufactured to stop. The NEW and IMPROVED virus will live on. Flu vaccines for last year's flu are almost worthless.
Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID? The "experts" say,---- The "experts" are so often completely wrong, I don't trust them at all.
I say,let people decide on their own if the risk is worth it. Personally.. I wouldn't go. But that is MY decision.
As they say, lockdowns are so effective they almost always lead to further, more restrictive lockdowns.
"'Things have improved because of what we've been doing' How do you know that? Is it reality? Is it "science"?"
You know what's not science? Quoting me and leaving off the question mark.
I know correlation is not causation, but we have to work with the evidence we have and make a good risk assessment. We don't *know* if the improvement is "because of" what we've been doing, but in thinking of what we ought to do going forward, the good result at this point is relevant. I was disturbed by the go-ahead to do Christmas visiting with 10 people in the house. Why don't we hold steady and do what we had resigned ourselves to and hold off on things? Concentrate on getting kids back in school after the winter break and making that work out well. If this Christmas relaxation causes things to spike back up and screw up the return to school... well, that's the wrong risk to take!
Manufacturing gloom. Exactly right.
Althouse needs a hug. But not a risky hug! Meade?
The answer better not be that the Electoral College has sealed Biden's victory, so we don't need to manufacture gloom anymore.
LOL. *That's adorable.
*lifted from Drago I think.
11 million dead. These probabilities are as worthless as those early death projections, although for different reasons. They aggregate population level statistics (for WI overall, appears) and then apply them broadly across different subpopulations, but at this point in the "pandemic" outbreaks are pretty highly localized. If you're in an outbreak zone, chances are, say, 1 in 2 that someone's infected. If you're not in an outbreak zone, they're 1 in 15. If you average those out, you have an average that tells you nothing about what your risks actually are, but is still mathematically correct.
Bowing to reality.
Why don't we hold steady and do what we had resigned ourselves to and hold off on things?
We? Who's this "we" you speak of? Because I NEVER resigned myself to any of that. I was TOLD I had to do it by a government functionary that doesn't have the slightest clue what is good for me OR my family.
It's been said a number of times in this thread and it bears repeating: if you don't want to be around 10 or 25 people this Christmas, then stay home. Don't purport to knowing what's best for everyone else.
Nothing annoys me more than a nanny.
I wish to thank all those who voted for Biden for releasing all of us in Dane County from Covid prison.
Because “holding off on things” is not acceptable to others, whose lives and priorities are different than yours, and you have no right to tell them what to do, Althouse.
And do you think that “getting the go ahead” makes a difference to free people? Who are these bureaucrats to tell us what to do? They also have no right, no more than Random Woman Althouse, and they haven’t earned it, and free people don’t respect being told what to do simply because someone says they should.
So - definitely no Christmas gathering for us.
Stay safe AA enthusiasts.
My wife and I are both in the higher risk category. We are driving to CA next week to spend Christmas with our family. We have not seen them since last Christmas as we have both had major health issues this year. We are not worried as we will take our HCQ.
Someone please point me to the study that proves masks work at all to reduce the spread of the disease.
Most of the dozen people I know who have had COVID say it was not as bad or protracted as flu cases they have had. A “case” is someone who tested positive not someone in the hospital or someone who has even gone to a doctor. Now we find out these vaccines do not prevent the disease but only lessen the severity. In other words make the disease what it may already be, essentially benign.
I have traveled a number of times in the last year and been in close contact with more than ten unmasked people on a half dozen occasions. For all I know I have had the virus. I am not now inclined to follow rules which are guesswork on the part of people who are not in the least inconvenienced by the “rules” they make up.
Good luck to all who will gather with their families this Christmas. Besides the new COVID protocols for family gatherings, I hope all the men here are clear that Biden-style hair sniffing is fucking creepy. Skip it.
They had to tank Trump's wicked good economy.
They had to.
Now Biden and Kamala can bask in the credit as things start to improve. btw- a lot of small businesses are not coming back. No worry! The hack Party press will delight in the good economic news they can manufacture or spotlight with a biased lens.
" Why don't we hold steady and do what we had resigned ourselves to and hold off on things?"
Because there is no evidence that that has an impact on the virus, and there is evidence that that has a significantly negative impact on the economy and peoples' mental health.
Most of the dozen people I know who have had COVID say it was not as bad or protracted as flu cases they have had.
It wasn't. I had it, and just got over it. Slight cough, slight aches, sinus infection symptoms, loss of taste and smell (especially smell). I'm 55, a heart patient, and about 40 pounds overweight. I've been taking Vitamin D and Zinc for the past 3 months. Others who got it and weren't taking those supplements (such as my younger brother) had a harder time of it.
This isn't the bubonic plague, and I wish our hostess wasn't so quick to believe the media hype.
I'm sorry, but saying we have to cancel Christmas so the children can go back to school is, to me, circular logic.
I'm reminded of when Gretchen Whitmer mandated high school football players must wear masks under their helmets while playing the game. A reporter asked her if she was at all concerned about the health of the players. She answered with "If women have to wear a mask during childbirth they can handle it!"
"Things have improved because of what we've been doing"
Already covered, of course, but: not in evidence. Most relevant research points the other way.
"Government gives the go-ahead for a super-spreader Christmas."
I once contracted Burl Hives from having a Holly Jolly Christmas.
JAMA study released recently shows that people indoors who are asymptomatic for COVID pose a 0.6% risk of infecting others. Tell me again why we closed the schools.
Ann's post asks about whether you would follow particular expert advice, but the article relates to government orders.
On the advice question, I'd feel free to join those gatherings regardless of the advice, but would not criticize anyone who chose to play it safer, whether based on that advice or anything else.
On the governmental directive question, I'm with Misplaced Pants and others here who ask (rhetorically), "Who the hell gave you the right?"
If we were following the science, kids would already be back in school.
Ann asks
Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID
I don't normally go to Christmas parties but not because of Kung Flu. I'm just not a party kind of person.
But if I did, the knowledge that there is a 100% chance that someone there "has" kung flu would not give me a moment's pause. Nor would I wear a mask or necessarily social distance. If that was required by the host, I probably would not go unless required
That would depend on them just "having" kung flu. If they actually had symptoms, coughing, sneezing, fever and so on, I might avoid them. Maybe even avoid the party altogether.
The problem, and the reason I put "has" in quotes is because I suspect you are talking about testing positive rather than actually having the flu or being sick. They have dialed up the cycle count so high that my coffee cup probably "has" the kung flu.
Fauci says that anything over 35 cycles is a false positive, there is no flu virus in one's system. Just particles that may have come from kung flu but just as likely did not. Other reputable docs say 30 cycles should be the threshhold.
Yet they are running 40 and 45 cycles. Perhaps as many as 90% of all positive results are false positives.
So if you are scared, stay in your own house. Don't go out, don't talk to anyone.
Me? I'm going to continue applying my agreement with regular flu to kung flu. That is, I'll leave it alone and it will leave me alone. I will not wear a mask unless legally required to or if I need it to go into a store or someplace. I will continue to travel and east out as close to normally as I can. (Currently in Kansas. Going to St Louis for 2 weeks next month then back to kansas for another 2 weeks)
Fuck kung flu. Life is too short to live in fear.
For those who say I'll kill grandma. My grandma died in 1956 so she is in no danger from me.
ICYMI, I am 73 years old. So in a risk group.
John Henry
but we have to work with the evidence we have and make a good risk assessment.
Corona viruses are seasonal, and Covid-19 cases look to be following a typical seasonality curve. The US curve started to flatten about two weeks ago. I'd be more inclined to say current trends were to be expected. That isn't science either, but it is based on past experience.
"Why don't we hold steady and do what we had resigned ourselves to and hold off on things?"
I was going to respond to this but I Callahan at 9:21 beat me to it.
My Texas kids have been back in school since the first week of October, and the year-round private school up the street has been in session since July. But Wisconsin science is better science! More sciencey. More logicky.
IHMMP, no just more uniony.
Pants at 8:50 sums up my feelings pretty well. I've noted a trend among my friends and relatives: almost all those who are veterans seem to be in the Pants cohort, but non veterans, not so much. Don't know if that's an an accurate observation or is biased because I am retired military and many of my friends are vets. Regardless my wife and I visited daughters and grandkids in Georgia and brother in NC over Thanksgiving and will visit wife's relatives in MS before spending a couple of weeks in our beach condo in Gulf Shores. I take vitamin D, C, Zinc and low dose aspirin and generally practice social distancing as possible, and I don't feel particularly threatened by Wuflu. Besides, I'm going to be 76 next month, and I'll be damned if I'm going to spend my final years locked up and quivering over some bureaucrat's edicts. I survived three combat tours in two wars and if Wuflu gets me before cancer or whatever else is in store, then so be it. As Pants so eloquently said: "Fuck off, slaver."
Speaking of kung flu, last week a team of well credentialed scientists (doctors) testified before Congress. One of the things they testified to was that Ivermectin, a 40 year old drug will not only cure kung flu dead in its tracks but will prevent it if taken ahead of time.
We can't have that, can we. Not if there is a vaccine to sell.
So I wonder how many people have actually even heard of this testimony? It seems to have been well hushed up.
So I was wondering around Flatville Sunday and wandered into a Tractor supply store. They had a locked display case papered over with notices. One from Tractor Supply, one from the FDA and another on plain paper.
All said essentially the same thing "Internet rumors" or "Internet reports" have been saying that invermectin is a cure for Covid. No mention of the congressional testimony or the doctors. It went on to say that it was a veterinary medicine and not approved (not "not recommended") for use in humans. and so on.
In the cabinet they had invermectin in various sizes and formulations. I believe that it is non-prescription and you just have to ask the clerk to give you some. I was thinking about saying "My horse has the kung flu can I buy some ivermectin?" but I was not in a troublemaking mood.
It was $39 for a 1 pint bottle.
And, of course, since life always imitates Seinfeld:
https://youtu.be/KbAmJ1PQCoM
John Henry
I Callahan X2
Concentrate on getting kids back in school after the winter break and making that work out well."
How'd that work this fall after summer break?
Michael
I have traveled a number of times in the last year and been in close contact with more than ten unmasked people on a half dozen occasions. For all I know I have had the virus. I am not now inclined to follow rules which are guesswork on the part of people who are not in the least inconvenienced by the “rules” they make up.
Ditto!! In the last 10 months, I had major cancer surgery. Traveled 300 miles to the medical center/hospital in a hot spot....numerous times. Had multitudes of tests at various medical centers including lots of Covid tests. Spent many nights in hotels because of the time/distance to drive (6 hours one way). Husband spent a week twice in the Hospice Hospitality house. Came down with pneumonia before my surgery 2.5 mo ago...recovered. 3 weeks ago he came down with a bad "cold" and then I caught the same. (coughing with abdominal incision 0/10 can't recommend).
We treated ourselves with extra zinc lozenge tablets and over the counter cough medications with Mucinex. Got better. Maybe we had Covid. Maybe just a common cold.
All the while continuing to work in our SELF EMPLOYED business...because no workeee...no eateee. (I kid..a bit.)
Quoting Michael "I am not now inclined to follow rules which are guesswork on the part of people who are not in the least inconvenienced by the “rules” they make up"
At this point it is all about making sure the Overton Window stays moved.
We accepted two weeks to flatten the curve.
We've settled into 8+ months erring on the side of caution.
We've established that we will generally go along quietly when things are decided 'for our own good'.
Now we are acquiescing to the idea that The Government Knows What is Best For Us.
The next nudge: This Is About More Than Health.
Soon we will be at the point where individual liberty is no longer even allowed in the window of acceptable discussion.
Systemic Individualism must be rooted out.
I am Laslo.
There is a strong tendency for liberals to be afraid to live.
Isn't Christmas an afterthought, gathering-wise, to Thanksgiving?
That went OK, so what would be the point of trying to make Christmas tighter anyway?
Mother-in-law let us know today that she will not be coming north for Christmas this year. She was scared off by sister-in-law and her husband's fretting about the surge in Covid cases in MA. Mrs. stevew and I are renting on the coast of southern ME and would be delighted to have MIL here, but the place is not warm so she won't stay with us. Son and DIL are also isolating this year, with their two young kids, so it will be a quiet Christmas for just us two. Will be strange to be this way but we'll make the best of it and really enjoy the time together. Looks like we will head to our daughter's house Christmas day, which will be terrific.
If government officials and health "experts" really cared about your health they would have been screaming every single day since May for everyone to start taking a vitamin D supplement.
But, they didn't. You barely even see it mentioned, even today. Why is that?
Civil disobedience will free us from COVID prison. It’s happening and the cascade is building.
The vaccine has changed the calculus. Agreed that it's probably too soon to stop being vigilant in most locations but, within a month, we'll be able to stop worrying about a new wave of outbreaks. As case loads drop, there is no reason to not start opening up.
BTW, there is a common misconception being circulated by irresponsible journalists and careless public health people--the vaccine involves two shots and 28 days to get the full benefit of the vaccine. Note the wording--the full benefit.
Benefits start to kick in within a week of the first shot and you have most of the benefits the vaccine offers even before you get the second shot.
Every restaurant in California has the recall petition out front now for removing crazy governor newsome. It’s on.
"Civil disobedience will free us from COVID prison. It’s happening and the cascade is building."
1. Every Biden voter is a Karen.
2. We are told there are more Biden voters than Trump voters.
3. Karens are cascading, not civil disobedience.
I am Laslo.
Looking forward to my first monoclonal antibody vaccine. However I’d first like an accurate antibody TEST to verify who actually needs the vaccine.
If social distancing, mask wearing and lockdowns had any correlation with infection rates, half the South would be infected and dead already. It's just not the case.
Laslo Spatula said...
2. We are told there are more Biden voters than Trump voters.
You could literally count on your two hands the number of Biden voters. The rest are anti-Trump voters.
"they would have been screaming every single day since May for everyone to start taking a vitamin D supplement"
And emphasizing the need for certain at-risk cohorts to lose weight
Althouse: "Why don't we hold steady and do what we had resigned ourselves to...?"
Question mark included because science or some shit.
Who the fuck is this we?
You mentioned "we" but failed to define the term.
Fuck that.
What if it's all about power acquired for the benefit of Democraticals?
That is the working theory of the people Althouse will never include in "we".
War.
It [Ivermectin] was $39 for a 1 pint bottle.
I expect the word will get around and people will try it. Dosage here. I recall large bottles of Penicillin being sold at farming supply stores and wondering how many cattle ranchers and dairy farmers used it for themselves.
Would I go?
Yep. In fact, I visit my daughter and 3 small grandsons weekly and have done since May. Her husband is an essential worker so he's potentially been exposed. Whatever.
Of course, I've been following the "quackey" docs and researchers who have tossed out all manner of viable ways to either prevent and/or treat a covid acquisition. Currently taking 10 grams of ascorbic acid spread throughout the day, 1.8 grams of melatonin at night, zinc and D. Melatonin is like a miracle hormone/not hormone, fyi. Russel Reiter and others have a crap ton of research on it. Ivermectin is on the radar, too. John Henry is right about that Senate hearing.
Most people just don't know what they don't know.
What has and is being done to cover up the above treatments is criminal.
I'm with Pants.
Is DBQ one bad-ass tough cookie, or what?
Wow. We are impressed. Hope the cancer is kicked to the curb.
tim maguire:
You forgot the 's' on the word vaccines.
Do better.
I love DBQ and want her to be healthy.
God bless and keep you.
We've been attending church with over 100 people since August, yes we're further apart than usual, but mask wearing isn't total. No one in our congregation has gotten sick. We even sing! I don't understand how we've beaten such odds if these numbers are to be relied upon. It says that we have over a 75% chance of having someone infected every week!
Good luck DBQ. Keep on fighting.
Yes, DBQ is one bad-ass, tough cookie.
I have thoroughly enjoyed your postings for years, DBQ.
Here's to many, many more. Be well.
Althouse, and many others, have adopted fear as a virtue!
DBQ, you’re amazing. Best wishes for a full and fast recovery!
Birkel said...
tim maguire:
You forgot the 's' on the word vaccines.
Do better.
To all: sorry. Please print out this comment thread, make copies of this s and tape it into the appropriate places.
Thank you.
Howard: "It's funny how so many people are in denial of what's coming."
The so-called "denialists" confidently predicted zero excess deaths or possibly less deaths than what would be normally expected on a national level for 2020.
And those persons ("denialists") were proven absolutely correct.
And isnt it strange how few deaths from non-Covid causes occurred in 2020?
Almost as if there were tens of thousands of purposeful mis-categorizations for cause of death......
.....as if that were a policy that was needed for some larger purpose.......
Misplaced Pants,
I do so love your comments. Fuck off, Slaver. That has become my default response (if only in my mind) to so much of what goes on in the US now. (Not just the Chinese lung pox.)
I am discouraged and befuddled by the huge number of people who seem not to have a contrarian bone in their bodies. Hell, my default response since I was a toddler to being told what to do has been, "Fuck off, Slaver." I have learned to temper that reflex, with a great deal of success, but it hasn't diminished. Do other people not have that?
While I am imprisoned in Commie Cali, I live now in Placer county, where the number of sheep is much lower than elsewhere. Or, at least, the sheep are not bleating at me. I go maskless at all times, even in stores where signs proclaim masks to be mandatory. Many small businesses have decided to stay open in defiance of the boy governor.
I just can't get over that those who chafe under the restrictions don't see that if we all refuse to bend the knee, the government is powerless. How many divisions does Newsom command?
Gusty Winds said...
"What do the citizens of Madison actually celebrate on Christmas?? It’s certainly not the birth of Christ. Are there secular satanic temple songs they sing around the Science Tree at the Capitol? In-A-Gadda-Da-Vita???"
WI Christmas Tree Removed Too late.
Mike (MJB Wolf): "Every restaurant in California has the recall petition out front now for removing crazy governor newsome. It’s on."
I'll be interested to see how the CA "LLR-lefties" mount their defense of Newsom.
I suspect they will be every bit as aggressive as the LLR-lefties were and are in defending Whitmer in MI.
Laslo Spatula said...
". Karens are cascading, not civil disobedience."
I don't think they're cascading; they're just noisier. And nosier.
Fun with statistics.
I've come across a few thousand people in the past few months. Been in rooms of people with everyone masked.
Odds are that none of them were infected.
"Fuck off, Slaver."
Wait. You're not a Glibertarian, are you?
As for the Branch Covidians about, please tell me against about the cataclysmic Thanksgiving surge.
These tweets are informative.
Guess what? Hydroxychloroquine is now totes adorbs, according the AMA. Post-election, natch.
Unless you are trolling Professor, this "Things have improved because of what we've been doing, and that's a reason to stop doing what we're doing?" assumes facts not in evidence.
The questions remain: If lockdowns work, why do we need another one, and If lockdowns do not work, why are we doing another one?
It's as if we've completely forgotten everything we know about virology with this new virus.
Two people in our household have had it and recovered from it. The other two of us never got it. One of the two who didn't get it is an essential worker who was forced to stay home because of her exposure to it. This is the first break she's had since it all started. She's not happy about it. She feels like she's letting other workers down by not being there, even though it's not by her choice.
I've been taking Vitamin D for years, but we've both been taking it and Zinc since around February this year.
"Things have improved because of what we've been doing, and that's a reason to stop doing what we're doing?"
Well, that depends. Why are you doing those things?
Are you doing them because you want to spend the rest of your existence on Earth doing them? For example, yes, we DO want to keep on locking up criminals and keeping them away from the rest of us.
So, if your goal is to lock up everyone, and have them spend the rest of their lives hiding at home, then yes, your complaint is valid.
If the POINT of the lockdowns is to cause the infection rate to drop, then having achieved your goal you need to stop imprisoning everyone.
It's this kind of goalpost moving that is causing people to, rightfully, ignore the "experts" about Covid
For those worried about the quality of veterinary medicines, they are manufactured to exactly the same standards as human medicines. I know this for a fact having worked with bout veterinary and human drug manufacturing.
What I don't know anything about is the effect of a veterinary drug developed for a horse used in a human. Dosage will be different. Some of the ingredients may be safe for horses but not for humans.
John Henry
I am just recovering from a bad at-home case of Covid-19. I now have antibodies (confirmed by a blood test). Definite shift in standpoint——having it behind me. While I did not lose my sense of taste or smell, my sense of smell did get seriously screwed up. Everything smells now like (I imagine) it smelled in the Star Wars trash compactor scene: metallic but also putrid organic stink. (Recent reports suggest it might take a couple of weeks for that to correct itself.)
Check for symptomatic individuals. Wash your hands with soap and water to control cross-contamination. Leave your masks at home, which have been scientifically established to spread infection (e.g. viral, bacterial) with a flip of a coin. Oh, and don't forget your goggles. The eyes are a window to contagion. Don't visit Planned Parent facilities. Seek early treatment (e.g. HCQ cocktail, Ivermectin protocol), safe, affordable, available, to mitigate disease progression and hospitalization by 80 to 90% and more..
jaydub said...
Pants at 8:50 sums up my feelings pretty well. I've noted a trend among my friends and relatives: almost all those who are veterans seem to be in the Pants cohort, but non veterans, not so much.
My experience, also. I'm a vet, and know lots of vets. Everyone of them would have to be in a permanent post-vegetative state to care less about Mao Tse Lung than they do now. Perhaps it has something to do with notions of risk. I knew 16 people who died in my career field. Against that, Commie Cough raises "trivial" to a whole new level.
We are having many people from multiple households for Christmas. I'm asking everyone — including our neighbors — to drive separately so as to maximize the number of cars in our driveway and on the street.
Mike (MJB Wolf): 17 million “cases” (whatever that means) as numerator and 335 million Americans as denominator, then how in hell do you get a concentration of 20+% risk? This is new new math.
You're using the wrong numbers, for one thing, because 17 million is the number of people who have ever had it, and we should just be talking about the number of people who have it now.
That being said, my math tells me it'd take about 8 million active cases (2.4% of the total population) to get to 22% odds in a group of 10.
.976^10=.784
since life always imitates Seinfeld
Kramer won't wear an AIDS ribbon
The hitchhiker's guide to planet Earth.
Mike (MJB Wolf): 17 million “cases” (whatever that means)
Cases are past, possible, probable, and progressive. It's the possible and probable, as well as preexisting immunity, that impacts accurate prediction of exponential spread.
Your anecdotal evidence proves nothing. If all we do is look at the validated statistics and chart them against the mandated behaviors, state by state and across the nation, we see little to no correlation. Forget about the legitimacy of the lockdowns, masks, and gathering restrictions, those things just aren't proven to do the job of slowing the spread and making everyone safe(r) from the virus. To advocate continuing to do what we have been doing is feel good nonsense; lots of people are waking to that fact.
Then there is the whole notion that the pandemic panic has served its political purpose and ousted Trump. We have no proof of that either, but I'm inclined to think it likely to be one explanation.
Michigan State University has mandated that starting in the fall semester of 2021 no one will be allowed on campus without proof of flu vaccine.
Me: Just the day before I received an email from a restaurant and lodging association that advised the recipients that they could REQUIRE proof of vaccination from their staff. That's some scary stuff. I am not accepting any further contract work from them if that's their position.
“Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID?”
I personally wouldn’t, but I have some health conditions that make me high risk for a bad outcome.
“The "experts" say, go ahead go — go if it's 22%, but don't go if it's 32%. If we follow that expert advice, how long will it take before the chances go back up to 32%?”
I think the chances of a spike are good. This doesn’t seem like a good idea. Why risk one’s life when there’s a vaccine and it will only be a short time until one can get vaccinated? Seems like the risk isn’t worth it. I’d rather skip this Christmas gathering and be alive for more in the future.
“Why aren't we saying what we're doing is working, so let's keep going with what's working?”
My guess is that our state government is trying to appease angry Covid deniers who will do what they want anyway. Sadly when they get infected they infect others and yep, then we’re back up to 32%.
Would I go to a party with a 22% someone has covid? Short answer: Yes. Long answer: Absolutely.
The fear in liberals (sorry Ann) shocks me. Truly.
"My guess is that our state government is trying to appease angry Covid deniers..."
Swing and a miss yet again.
Nobody is denying covid, but people are denying or questioning the severity of the virus.
For instance, nobody denies you are a dumb shill. But people can argue just how dumb and how big of a shill you actually are.
I think even you can understand this...
That Althouse blithely compares a COVID Christmas this yearunder government mandates, to criminal incarceration, is rather the whole point of the citizen protests against government mandates about COVID. We refuse to be treated like convicted criminals when we have committed no crime, especially when our actions are NOT shown to be the cause of COVID rate changes.
The Butterfield effect with COVID would be the government flattening the curve, then being (or at least acting) amazed that the curve goes up again when restrictions are eased. WE ALL KNEW THAT WOULD HAPPEN.
Political Junkie said...Stay safe AA enthusiasts.
Seriously, do you have any idea that "staying safe" also carries risks with it? The numbers will come in, eventually, of all the death and depression that were caused by "staying safe." No one ever puts those up on the Gov. Cuomo board but that's because he's a fuqqing moron.
Ah, this is county level. Dane County has a population of about 570K, which means we'd need about 13.7K cases to get 22% probability in a group of 10.
Confirmed active cases is 3K, so we'd only need about 80% of cases to be undetected for there to be 13.7K actual current cases.
I'd say 22% probability is reasonable.
We had an election night party with 10 people in my TV room. That was a Tuesday. On Friday one of them informed us he had just tested positive. He's 49, obese, and has a few other health issues.
He survived. None of the rest of us got it.
We are living in insane times. The SAFETY monsters are destroying humanity.
Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID?
Yes.
I have already seen "news" articles saying that we will still need masks, social distancing, shutdowns and the like EVEN AFTER THE VACCINE IS DISTRIBUTED.
As others here have said, fuck that. I respect what YOU want to do. Don't dare tell me what to do with like-minded people. My grandma's been dead since the late 60s. I've got a teacher friend and a teacher sister who act as if they are in mortal danger because my governor has let the counties make their own decisions on resuming in-school or virtual or a combination of both.
THEOLDMAN
When does an “active” case become a “recovered” case? 14 days after a positive test? When you say so? When a doctor says so? Anyway Worldometer has us at 6.7 million “active” cases with 27 thousand considered critical/serious or .004%. .004% is not a lot. At all. A lot have it and are neither tested nor in a doctor’s care.
If you examine the reported numbers and not the headlines you will naturally be skeptical of the measures being jammed down our throats. Measures that went through zero legislative approvals. Not laws.
Good grief ! I saw that "covid deniers" and thought, "Inga must be awake."
Yup.
The percentages noted are not evenly spread in the population. Given the systemic racism in Madison it is likely that most cases are in the community of peoples of color. There is a zero chance that any of those posting here would be in a group of people’s of color at Christmas. Or ever.
“Good grief ! I saw that "covid deniers" and thought, "Inga must be awake."
Good grief Michael K’s reason to exist seems to be to keep tabs on the liberal commenters sleep cycles and commentary. I guess he’s making himself useful being the Althouse site’s Karen, eh Michael? Have a good visit in CA with your one son who still speaks to you.
Have a good visit in CA with your one son who still speaks to you.
Inga goes to great effort to come up with inaccurate information about my private life. The trolls here are one good reason why I do not share private information. Of course, they could go to my blog where I have private information available. Only the really obsessed and crazy go to that much trouble.
Your hangover from last night seems to be improved.
Michael: "When does an “active” case become a “recovered” case? 14 days after a positive test? When you say so? When a doctor says so?"
It is primarily dependent on where we are in an election cycle and if the democraticals determine they need to massively alter election rules in order to secure an advantage.
No other criterion appears remotely relevant as the last year has proven conclusively.
Also, one needs to stipulate whether or not the population being analyzed are on the political left or the right since we have been operating for a year now on the principle the virus will not attack those on the left.
Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID?
Yes.
I have been trying as hard as possible to live my life as normally as possible since April. It's my life, and Covid isn't smallpox.
Also, one needs to stipulate whether or not the population being analyzed are on the political left or the right since we have been operating for a year now on the principle the virus will not attack those on the left.
That's because the left follows the rules, so they don't get the covid. Right-wing nutjobs are super spreaders by their very nature.
It's science. Just ask them.
17 million “cases” (whatever that means) as numerator and 335 million Americans as denominator, then how in hell do you get a concentration of 20+% risk? This is new new math.
Easy. There's a very good chance that even if someone there has the bug, he won't transmit it to anyone. Especially if people are not hugging and kissing. Let's say there's a 10% chance of someone catching it, conditional on someone there having it. That gets you down to a 2.2% chance of getting it overall (not knowing whether anyone has it or not).
Regarding veterans vs civilian population: my wife is retired Fire Department. She says that the typical first responder she knows is less Covid cocerned than the general population.
Regarding the math, numbers are funny things. If you get 23 people in a room the odds are about fifty fifty that two share a birthday.
Schools in pr will open in January.
But my wife has to get vaccinated
John Henry
Ann, this isn't the Fox Butterfield Effect. The point there is that two things happening simultaneously are supposed to be in conflict -- "The prisons are filling up, despite crime going down" -- whereas obviously at least one reason the crime rate is going down is because the prisons are filling up; people not at liberty to commit crimes generally don't commit them.
What you're talking about here is risk homeostasis, which is very different but also pretty well understood. The general idea is that people who are saved from themselves in some way generally manage to put their odds of death or serious injury right back up where they were by doing something else stupid. The classic example is seat belts: Making them mandatory on cars (and making it mandatory for you to wear them, once they were there -- an undertaking that I understand was pretty tricky in itself) made it less likely that you'd die by crashing your head through the windshield, but people compensated in other ways -- by violating speed limits more often, paying less attention at intersections, &c. -- and so the overall death/injury rate didn't decline as much as you'd think.
Yes, to whoever brought up the massive "Thanksgiving superspreader event" that apparently didn't happen: Where'd it go? I keep reading furious letters to the editor of this-or-that newspaper about those heartless sods who got on a plane to visit relatives; don't they know that only private jets are safe? But it's been several weeks; if there were a blip right around Thanksgiving, we ought to be able to see it by now.
But it's been several weeks; if there were a blip right around Thanksgiving, we ought to be able to see it by now.
This is like climate change or "jobs created or saved": There are no results that can't be retrofitted into the claim. "Yes, the rise in numbers is very modest, but they would have declined if not for all those selfish people!"
“Inga goes to great effort to come up with inaccurate information about my private life. The trolls here are one good reason why I do not share private information. Of course, they could go to my blog where I have private information available. Only the really obsessed and crazy go to that much trouble.”
I don’t know or care that you have a blog. Whatever I say about your dysfunctional relationship with your family is by repeating what YOU have self reported here on these comments sections. It’s not my fault you don’t remember what you’ve shared about your family’s inner conflicts here with the readers. I don’t care about you or your relationship with your family, but when you consistently act like an asshole to me, I’ll use what you’ve reported about yourself against you. It’s only fair. I’m sorry that you are such a snowflake. You have proven yourself to be one of those pathetic people who can hand it out but can’t take the blowback.
Make sure everybody bleaches their shoes, and all will be fine.
Don't worry. We'll be sharing ice cream cones with strangers next Fall.
“Don't worry. We'll be sharing ice cream cones with strangers next Fall.”
I won’t be drinking vegetable soup out of anyone’s hands though.
There is still plenty of governmental gloom to be had in CA, NY, NJ.
Michelle Dulak Thomson: ...if there were a blip right around Thanksgiving, we ought to be able to see it by now. This was mentioned on our local news yesterday. It fits in pretty well with my opinion that no one really knows the path of this disease. The experts advised us to wear masks, wash our hands frequently and maintain a distance from others. My own observation is that people seemed to be following that advice pretty consistently since April. The resulting surge in the fall then, is explained by what? I'm retired and it's easy to not be in close contact with people. My daughter works in retail and is required to wear a mask. Again, my advice to her is to stay away from people; just don't get close.
Would you go to a party if there was a 0.044% chance of dying from Flu Manchu as a result? The odds of dying in a car wreck on the way to the party are probably greater.
0.22 x (1 - 0.998) = 0.044%
Birkel said...
"War."
Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
"Civil disobedience will free us from COVID prison. It’s happening and the cascade is building."
Sure, and King Lear said...
"I will have such revenges on you both,
That all the world shall — I will do such things —
What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be
The terrors of the earth!"
All a lot of talk.
I'd like to rebel. I wouldn't mind going to Birmingham jail for a couple of weeks. But when the government can put you out of business and cut off your income (which feeds not only you, but your spouse and kids), what can you really do?
Hey the good news is the Flu mortality has evaporated! So, next season we'll replay. Don't jettison your PPE, hand sanitizer or let your Toilet Paper run low!
It’s not my fault you don’t remember what you’ve shared about your family’s inner conflicts here with the readers. I don’t care about you or your relationship with your family, but when you consistently act like an asshole to me, I’ll use what you’ve reported about yourself against you. It’s only fair.
Yeah, Ritmo thought it was fair, too. The really assholish people like you and Ritmo use these sorts of things to try to hurt someone. It has nothing to do with politics. It's just hate.
To reassure you, we will be staying in my trial lawyer son's condo at Christmas while he spends it with his crazy ex-wife in the Bay Area and their two kids. I cannot recall saying anything about his not speaking to me. We don't talk about politics.
“To reassure you, we will be staying in my trial lawyer son's condo at Christmas while he spends it with his crazy ex-wife in the Bay Area and their two kids.”
Am I supposed to care? Why share facts like this about your family? So your son prefers the company of his crazy ex wife to his father...
Looks like we are on the other side of the recent spike (excepting TN). How the hell did that happen? No one knows for sure. I suggest it was the FDA approval of the vaccine. That is as likely as was widespread mask usage.
The Latest Stats from Johns Hopkins
Blogger stevew said... Looks like we are on the other side of the recent spike (excepting TN). How the hell did that happen?
The worst second wave is exactly what pandemics are expected do because herd immunity is not yet reached and the public tires of the restrictions after the first wave. There are predicted to be third and fourth waves of lesser magnitude depending on the degree of vaccination success.
Some say back to 100% new-normal as late as 2024.
Does Althouse have any friends?
I have only been reading this blog for 6 or 7 years, but can't recall her mentioning anyone personally besides the husband and son.
Maybe life under lock down for her is no different than it would otherwise be...photograph sunrise, blog, sleep, collect pension and social security.
I'm a geezer in the high-risk covid age group. My exercise regime went all to hell when covid hit and gyms closed.
I was happy when my gym reopened, albeit under restrictions. But it was a lot tougher to get back in shape than I thought. The masks really hold me back.
I may have mentioned on this site that I have been trying to get a letter from my doctor that would allow me to exercise sans mask in my huge gym, where the people are few, the machines and weights are spread widely apart, and the air is sanitized with hospital-grade equipment.
To date that gym has experienced ZERO covid deaths among its staff and customers.
After leaving a request to that effect---including all the information above ---with my cardiologist via the hospital's portal 12 days ago, I finally got a reply, a rejection.
My cardiologist, some fifteen years younger and seemingly in perfect health, said he runs every day with a mask, and since it presents no problem FOR HIM, I shouldn't have a problem with it either.
The FACT that I can't get vigorous exercise on an elliptical machine or treadmill while wearing the goddamn mask is immaterial...because it's not a problem...for him.
!!!!! !!!!! !!!!! THIS is 21st Century medical science???
He further advised me to instead walk outdoors while wearing a mask.
Can anyone offer an example in the history of the world where any pandemic has been shown to have been spread or maintained by people in the open air?
Does my doctor not know that beginning in the 1900's, getting people outside and into fresh air was considered both a treatment and preventative for airborne diseases like tuberculosis and the dreaded Spanish flu? Is there any evidence that covid is somehow impervious to sunlight and wind dispersal?
Have we returned to the "miasma" theory? Is covid a variant of "malaria" (bad air)?
Such nonsense, from the supposedly world-class Lahey Clinic.
We are doomed. Soon we will be back to leeches, lobotomies, trepanning, and the like.
It's back to alchemy, humors and witchcraft, I guess.
We walk around in a body we did not create. It came with a bundle of software that included anti-virus software.
Some people are born blind. Some people are born without hands. or arms. Some people are blessed with Down's Syndrome. We all come here to bear a Cross.
If you are born with an almost perfect body, like most of us are, your Cross is hidden. It appears in the fullness of time.
When we recognize we are at the end, and our mind cannot keep our Soul from pondering this thing, the confection of Life dissipates and allows a glimpse of the wonder to come.
I waxed poetic. I recognize that. I've got a whole dissertation on Descartes mind/body dualism thang. He almost got it, but it wasn't that. It wasn't Body/Mind.
Still, there could be another 20 years to discuss this. Or...20 days.
when you get your money from the government money tree, lockdowns aren't a problem. Then all you have to do is worry about getting cooties from someone handing you something, or maybe on your shoes. right? When Karen is scared, everything is about her.
businesses that fail are just a necessary statistic, to keep the Karens safe. Karen has no idea what it takes to actually operate a business, the work and sacrifice it takes. Having never made a payroll, Karen then thinks its sad, for her, that they are not in business. the words 'out of touch', pampered, and living in a bubble aren't even close here.
shorter version. Live in fear, obey your masters. If the peasants can't survive, or threaten me with cooties, it's their fucking problem. Karen has hers, fuck the peasants.
We know and have known for sometime at this point that people who get infected with Covid-19 are infectious to others for 2, 3, 4, or, rarely, 5 days as their viral levels peak and then fall within their bodies. Or if that doesn't happen they die.
So if there was a 32% chance that at least one person in ten had the virus in November what does that imply?
Well my first reaction is to wonder why the epidemic isn't over already since at that rate surely almost everybody will have already been infected?
But then I realize there's a deception buried in these numbers. How long does the average person test for positive for Covid-19 when we use the PCR test? I don't know. But let's say it's 60 days. And guess that the average person is only infectious to others for three days out of that 60.
So if there's a 32% chance that one person in ten is infected then that turns into a 1.6% chance that you'll get infected by socializing with a random ten strangers.
That seems more believable, even if it still feels high.
Or if it's 22% now, then it's a 1.1% chance of getting infected from socializing with ten random strangers.
I wonder how the 22% (or 32%) is arrived at. If you assume that every person at the gathering has an equal and independent risk of being infected, then a 22% risk that one member is infected would work out to a roughly 2.5% risk that a random participant is infected (and infectious). I think that's the calculation they're running because I can get ~30% and 46% for the 15 and 25 person cases.
But Wisconsin's total confirmed cases to date would indicate 7.6% of the population is or has ever been infected. An undercount, most likely, but to such a degree that 2.5% of the population is currently infectious? That seems high to me, especially since transmission (reflected in new cases) has dropped so significantly.
And of course, the groups aren't composed of random individuals. If it's two grandparents + four parents/spouses + four children, that's really just three households. If someone in a household has been infected, they probably all are. Are we assuming the average household is, say 2.5 people, and each household has a 6% chance of being infectious?
The numbers in their model just strike me as high. And from a different perspective, if the true percentage of persons infected now or in the past is high enough that the proportion of currently infectious people is down to 2.5% (from about 3.8% to get to the 32% a month ago in mid-November), then you would think there must be a significant level of natural immunity in the population already.
But Wisconsin's total confirmed cases to date would indicate 7.6% of the population is or has ever been infected. An undercount, most likely, but to such a degree that 2.5% of the population is currently infectious? That seems high to me, especially since transmission (reflected in new cases) has dropped so significantly.
Everybody seems to forget the experiment of nature that Diamond Princess was. A couple thousand people, half cruise ship age bracket, half crew age bracket. A month in close quarters. 20% infected. One death.
I don't rale against the Powers that order masks and whatnot. I don't wear one. I go to breakfast at a local cafe where we sit shoulder to shoulder. It's packed. No one wears a mask. I went to Walmart 2 days ago. 'Mandated'! Didn't wear a mask. No need to get in anyone's face about it. Employees come up to me to ask when can we stop this stupid theatre?
Never. What bureaucrat wants to be the one that says it's safe now? Magic pill, Vaccine?
I wash my hands now, more than I used to. Don't sanitize ANYTHING. I've got a handkerchief to cover my mouth when I sneeze. Ain't gonna strap it to my face though.
My Governor doesn't want to 'mandate' mask wearing because the serfs just won't do it. The Health District mandated it. The City Council mandated it. Yeah, no. Not gonna do it.
“Would you go to a Christmas gathering where there's a 22% chance that somebody there has COVID?”
Meh. The idea of standing around making small talk with people is quite far down on my list of things to do right now. If the question were, instead, “Would you go out to a restaurant and dine inside where there’s a 22% chance that somebody has COVID?” Then my answer is yes. I really have little fear of this virus. I’m in my early 50s, in relatively decent health, and if I get it, I’ll likely be miserable for a week or two and then get back to it.
I happened to drive by the local restaurant/pub in my neighborhood and it was so sad to see the lights off and the place looking bleak and unhappy. This was a place that usually had a line out the door and families would go for weekend brunch after soccer games. At this time of year it’s usually decorated within an inch of its life. There's no life there now. I think they tried the whole take-out thing at the beginning but clearly that didn't work.
Marcus said...
“I have already seen "news" articles saying that we will still need masks, social distancing, shutdowns and the like EVEN AFTER THE VACCINE IS DISTRIBUTED.”
Heard the same thing today, in an audio clip from some so-called MD on MSNBC stating that we would not be “liberated” from the need for masks and social distancing anytime soon. Interesting use of words.
Gyms? We don nee no stinkin gyms. There are dozens of common sense simple body weight exercises, hill/stair climbing, sprinting and running. Throw in kettle bells. If you can't suck air through a mask, hit the bricks.
Stop making excuses for being unsatisfactory disgusting fatbody.
Quit eating so much food, don't snack. Give up the booze and dessert. Skip meals.
It's not rocket science. Even Libtards can do it... time for another set.
Howard, as a result of all the exercise I've been getting my whole life, I'm in no ways a fatbody.
Go fuck yourself with a red-hot fireplace poker.
Me and my family are going door to door licking doorknobs. I just can't wait any longer for this vaccine. We don't need no stinking vaccine.
It wasn't that long ago that an exposure that provided immunity with a 99.7% chance of
survival would be considered a damned miracle vaccine.
I have been in extended close proximity multiple times to people who were infected at the time. I just can't get it. I've tested twice for the antibodies, but negative. Covid just doesn't like me. I do take care to maintain a higher than normal tequila level in my blood. The study is ongoing, but preliminary data shows a strong correlation between margaritas and immunity.
If the government responses work, then why haven't they. We have seen very high compliance with the mask mandates and distancing. The percentage is in the high 90s, but the infection rate just followed its own prerogative regardless.
Unlike the US, Sweden with its non-mandate approach has a second wave that has been much smaller in fatalities than the first wave, and it's pretty much over now with deaths back down to pre-wave levels. They continue to drop down the rank in deaths per million. I don't see any correlation between response and results across our nation or the world. The ebb and flow of infection and deaths seems to follow a pattern that ignores the various responses. There certainly isn't any proof that mandates work to stop the virus, despite the seeming logic of it, but they do work very well for other agendas.
I don't think our experts have a clue about what has happened or even what to do the next time, unless they want to stomp on Constitutional rights and make sudden disastrous changes to their election procedures, legal or illegal. That's a proven technique with solid evidence of success.
Howard lives to see responses to his insults. That's what trolls do, even if they deny it.
I expect that 100% of us got the Corona Cooties. I really don't see the problem. A-symptomatic or not. Breathe your Corona Cooties at me. I walk around in a body that was designed for this World and it's environment.
What about the 'droplets' from breathing.
'Droplets'. Oh, man. You ain't the people that settled the West, or climbed the cliffs at Pointe du Hoc, I'll give you that.
Blogger Michael K said...
Howard lives to see responses to his insults. That's what trolls do, even if they deny it.
Real Doctor not fake Doctor of Edumacation Doc Mike has a firm grasp of the obvious, unexpectedly.
"What bureaucrat wants to be the one that says it's safe now?"
Here's the problem right here. They'll never say it's safe now- ever.
Blogger MartyH said...
Regarding the math, numbers are funny things. If you get 23 people in a room the odds are about fifty fifty that two share a birthday.
John is the most common men's first name. Henry is a very common last name. Outside my family, I only need one hand to count the number of John Henry's I've actually met in the past 73 years.
One of them is in England. Professionally he consults in the same niche of manufacturing that I do. And I just found out that we share a birthday.
Nice guy, we exchange messages from time to time. Often along the lines of "What are the odds?"
But I'm pissed about the birthday thing. I told him I had it first and he will have to change his.
John Henry
Real Doctor not fake Doctor of Edumacation Doc Mike has a firm grasp of the obvious, unexpectedly.
Nice of you to admit, Howard. I knew you were a stand up guy, unlike the other trolls around here,
"Why aren't we saying what we're doing is working, so let's keep going with what's working?"
Because it ain't working. Look at the statistics. Deaths went up, then they went down, now they're going up again. Like any seasonal disease. All this time, we've been social distancing and masking and f*cking up our children/grandchildren's education, destroying our economy, and deaths keep going up. "Oh, but they'd go up MORE if we didn't wear masks." Prove it! Did the ("mostly peaceful") anti-law riots increase the spread? Apparently not. Did all that travel and family gathering for Thanksgiving constitute a "superspreader"? Apparently not. But Christmas certainly will. And then there's Easter. And what about Memorial Day?
The fact is, this virus will do what it does, and we can thank the scientists and drug companies (and the outgoing President) for a vaccine that may kill it. Until then, I'll wear my mask and I'll social distance and keep away from church, etc. And when I express hope that something better is coming, I'll say "knock wood", I'll hold onto my rabbit's foot, I'll say "God bless you" when you sneeze. Superstitions can be comforting when you have nothing better. We have nothing better until we get vaccinated.
"Until then, I'll wear my mask and I'll social distance and keep away from church"
Can you hear yourself? If you're serious about keeping away from 'church', you don't have a
church. You have a social club.
Chinese followers of Christ meet in secret, and when they are found, they become organ donors. If anyone follows the Christ, he carries a Cross, and it is a heavy burden.
Vaccines can be comforting when you have nothing better.
What Hercules said.
My church has a bunch of Nigerian immigrants. They laugh at our ideas of “it’s dangerous to go to church.”
If you’re saved, you’re saved. You’ll get called home when the Lord is good and ready. Pretending you control that means you are worshiping the idol of self-preservation, not God.
Amen, Pants.
That worked great in the Middle Ages. (Did contribute to witch hunts, though.)
Blogger Michael K said...
"Howard lives to see responses to his insults. That's what trolls do, even if they deny it."
It's what children do.
Re: Michael K:
Everybody seems to forget the experiment of nature that Diamond Princess was. A couple thousand people, half cruise ship age bracket, half crew age bracket. A month in close quarters. 20% infected. One death.
Where are you getting that there was only one death? 712 people were infected, and there were 14 deaths, i.e. 1.97% of people who caught it died (all passengers). A lot of them were elderly, true, so the population-wide fatality rate for coronavirus is likely much lower. But Wisconsin's confirmed cases per million is 76,394 (7.6%), and deaths per million is 721, i.e. about 0.94% case fatality rate.
Wisconsin's data isn't like New York, where the deaths are wildly disproportionate to the confirmed cases, suggesting that New York's confirmed cases are massively understated (even excluding estimated deaths due to Cuomo's infamous nursing homes order). I could believe the confirmed case figures in Wisconsin are maybe half of the true numbers (i.e. true fatality rate something like 0.5%, on the lower end of the range estimated by some serological surveys over the summer), but even then we'd only be looking at 15% of the population having been infected. If 3.8% were infected a month ago, and the currently infected cohort cycles approximately every two weeks, let's say that's something like:
September 1-15: 0.5%
September 15-30: 1%
October 1-15: 1.5%
October 15-31: 2.5%
November 1-15: 3.5%
November 15-30: 3.8%
December 1-15: 2.5%
Which would add up to . . . oh, 15.3% Huh. Okay, maybe I should withdraw my comment, haha. The estimate of the currently infected population still looks quite high to me, but maybe it's not actually all that far off.
The democrats and media have had to publicly use the word Christmas much more than they would normally have in the past. I am guessing that they figure if they have to keep talking about Christmas, they will bring Christmas up as a bad thing, that hopefully one day Christmas will be ignored, like they ignored Christmas' past. They could just exchange presents in celebration of the defeat of Trump who they treat as a god emperor. May God Emmanuel be present at your Christmas.
This whole cold-virus thing is just telling us who we are now. This life is soft, and we want to hang onto it. No other people in this world have ever had it so...soft. It is the Apex.
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