Subheadline — in the NYT — imposes the narrative: "The president’s result came after he spent months playing down the severity of the outbreak that has killed more than 207,000 in the United States and hours after insisting that 'the end of the pandemic is in sight.'"
When did this begin? Was he sick at the debate? I thought he looked weary, and his performance was off. He seemed under-powered at his Minnesota rally the next day. Did he expose Joe Biden? Both Trump and Joe have extra vulnerability.
Can we stop talking about what Trump failed to say exactly right about white supremacy as the debate? That was already over-played.
The VP debate next week looms large. We've been talking about how Kamala Harris is perhaps secretly the real presidential candidate, and now we can say the same thing about Mike Pence.
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১০৯টি মন্তব্য:
I think that's the end of the debates and of Trump's planned rallies. Not a lot of ways for Trump to move the needle back and he just may have lost his best two.
Ironic that the guy who downplayed it, to prevent panic, is likely in a White House that is in full on panic mode. A dose of his own medicine, so to speak.
They'll start arguing that the 25th Amendment has to be invoked.
Hillary is probably flat-out with a dopey smile on her face. Her poison pill has finally borne some fruit....
In terms of pure stability I'd prefer to have a president who had Covid and survived than one who haven't had it
I notice many on the left think this is a method for Trump to drop out of the debates.
Trump may have been calling Joe slow because his Doctor warns of his own cognitive decline. Why else make the big deal about his dementia screen test in the spring?
What we saw the other day is the best he can do in a structured situation and his team has found a method to disrupt future debates.
I have tuned up the world's smallest violin, as we can count on hearing about how the person with the best access to Healthcare in the world compare his experience to that of average Americans.
Watch the hate ghouls come out of the woodwork wishing him death now.
I'll pray that the POTUS and his First Lady are asymptomatic and the same for everyone that they may have come in contact with. Time for DJT to take the zinc and Hydroxychloroquine.
Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil also got Covid, and got over it. He also recovered from a severe stabbing a few years ago. He seems a pretty tough guy.
Positive corona test=death.
Positive corona test=you killed everyone and their grandma.
We get a refresher course on lib science today.
"We've been talking about how Kamala Harris is perhaps secretly the real presidential candidate, and now we can say the same thing about Mike Pence."
Bulls**t. "The wish being Father to the thought??"
Hope for a speedy recovery.
This is 2020. If you think we need another element of chaos, just wait a bit.
You will "forget" the last one very quickly, for the latest development, and the next and the next.
But outside of the attention span, all of these accumulate, and people become unpredictable, as they recall all the destabilizing whiplash, even if unconsciously, and they feel all their social structures wobble and fail. And within your institutions your leaders feel the same.
The not shocking part is the sub headline. If Reagan were shot today, the sub headline would read that this happened after he downplayed the importance of gun violence.
Obama always said Hope was contagious.
Trump did not realize he was talking about Hope Hicks.
Suspicious minds might see a Democrat October surprise. No matter. Trump has HCQ and zinc.
Standard left-wing narrative: something bad happened to somebody I don’t like. This Is God’s judgment against them, proving me right.
"Did he expose Joe Biden?"
They were 20 feet from each other, and I don't think they shook hands before or after.
Was he sick at the debate?
better question:
IS he sick? I wonder what SYMPTOMS he has? Aside from the "symptom" of a positive test?
... and now we can say the same thing about Mike Pence
Because 'we' can doesn't make it true. Last I checked covid isn't a death sentence. It probably does get Biden off the hook for the rest of the debates, though.
Pray for the Trumps. We need him desperately. I’m convinced that God sent him to us in our hour of need.
The above being said, Trump’s chance of getting well is the same as his winning the election: 99%.
How one until the next Presidential debate? Biden may try to use this as an excuse to hide in his basement, but will President Trump be officially immune in two weeks?
All we know at this point is that he has tested positive. That does not mean he has symptoms or that he is sick. He could go through a 2-week quarantine and be fine. We'll have to wait and see. I thought I read he had been taking the HCQ regimen?
"buwaya said...
Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil also got Covid, and got over it."
Boris Johnson too.
Trump will be fine.
If he feels fine and even asymptomatic I see no reason he could not do his rallies remotely via video. It might be very good for people to see him if he is doing well than to hide away like Biden. That would be quite a contrast.
Thank you, Mark, for your stupid observations.
What month did Trump down play the severity of coronavirus? January? February? March, when democrats called him racists and encouraged people to enjoy the Chinese New Year in their nearby China town.
Alas, we already have two more posts as if Trump is now medically unqualified because he has a disease in which 80% of those who get it are asymptomatic. Trump is likely asymptomatic as well. Besides standing for a debate, he stood the next day on his way to Marine One and took questions from reporters.
Wendy bar, you must have missed the commentary about Ginsburg in the last year.
Before you claim moral superiority, make sure you have it.
In today's political climate, no one is an innocent.
Also the first lady is pregnant.
This kills the freshly released Melania Trump Doesn't Give a Fuck About Children' smear. A shame- so many people worked so hard on it...
David Begley said...The above being said, Trump’s chance of getting well is the same as his winning the election: 99%
While I still think Trump is more likely than not to be reelected, I'm less confident than I was a month ago. He's seemed off the beam for a while and needed to do better at the debate. You can't completely dismiss the polls. Even Rasmussen, which 2 weeks ago showed a slight Trump lead, is now showing a large Biden lead and the others aren't budging.
It's impossible to guess what effect his positive test will have on the rest of the campaign, especially if the debates are cancelled given that they are Biden's best opportunities to melt down.
As I understand it, hospitalization rates are 20-25% for people in Trump's age and health bracket. I assume another 25-30% are basically symptomatic but not requiring hospitalization, and ~50% are asymptomatic or close to it.
Purely from a political lens: If Trump remains well and can be seen as such, this has the potential to be a political boon for him. If he gets very ill, obviously that will hurt his re-election chances. I somewhat can't countenance right now what would happen if he passed away from Covid but my implication would be Rs would lose. Again, purely political lens.
The false positive rate for China plague tests is very high.
Like all kung flu data we can't get good data on how high. Some studies say 90 percent. Some say as low as 20.others in between. 20 or 90, I still would not trust the results of a single test. Especially if there are no symptoms. I hope he is getting multiple tests.
I'm not going to worry much about it unless he becomes symptomatic.
John Henry
Mark should feel much shame and embarrassment, but as has been readily apparent for decades, lefties don't embarrass easy.
Can we stop talking about what Trump failed to say exactly right about white supremacy as the debate? That was already over-played.
And the best way to do that is to vote a straight Republican ticket in a month and a day as a rebuke to Democrats.
But it is good that you realize that no matter how precisely Trump denounces the white supremacists, Democrats will claim that it not enough.
"Did he expose Joe Biden?"
In so many ways.
I don't see what the panic is. Chances are great he's going to be fine. He'll be back better than ever. And he'll be able to show Americans that we can live our lives.
Can we stop talking about what Trump failed to say exactly right about white supremacy as the debate? That was already over-played.
Weren't you one of the people playing that card, Ann?
It’s concerning that Hope Hicks was not adequately tested before contact with Trump. I thought they had very tight regimen for this.
May they all recover quickly...
In political terms, I see this as a possible plus for Trump. Odds are he'll be either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. If that's the case, then he'll be better for the homestretch of the election and can crow that he beat Covid.
If he's seriously ill, he may get a bump in the polls as Boris Johnson did. But I think he would need to use the Covid struggle to pivot his style and be more humble and dignified to increase his support. Don't think he'll do that.
Another reason to not vote early...
"How one until the next Presidential debate? Biden may try to use this as an excuse to hide in his basement, but will President Trump be officially immune in two weeks?"
FWIW, I had to quarantine 10 days from when I tested positive. Of course, all the people who fucking love science are about to start denying the science in order to give Biden an out.
I must say, the writers of this "2020" show are really going over the top now, just throwing everything in. Is it sweeps week or something?
A gentle reminder: a positive test without symptoms doesn't mean much.
Almost nobody tests positive for the flu or cold - you start sneezing, coughing, feel crummy, stay home for a few days, rest, and then get over it. It's not that melodramatic.
Sen. Rand Paul & CNN Chris Cuomo tested positive and presumably, developed antibodies and got over it.
If old and/or already sick, Yes, the odds of worse outcome increase.
DJT is old and a bit hefty (don't think he's obese, but obesity is a big co-factor for poor outcome)
No need to panic and here's to getting over it!
This came two weeks too early for Dems. Trump will sail through it and end a Superhero with campaign rallies like you haven’t seen. Reminds me of God letting Satan do his worst on Job but not kill him.
Trump is faking it, he and Melanoma don't have the Covid. I predict he makes a full recovery using oxyclean and arsenic proving to you people that the China Flu is nothing burger. This stunt proves that he knows he lost the debate
BoJo had a popularity boost when he had CV-19.
Two weeks in isolation with the best doctors in the world, and a supermodel. Sympathies.
Well I wish the president well, doesn’t this show how his foolish and arrogant disregard of following the CDC suggestions on wearing mask has come back to bite him, Karma is strange.
You be you, Howeeeee!
This is a good example of why we should avoid electing someone as weak and feeble as Biden. He can barely shuffle through the day now. What would his odds be of surviving Covid?
"The president’s result came after he spent months playing down the severity of the outbreak that has killed more than 207,000 in the United States and hours after insisting that 'the end of the pandemic is in sight.'"
"A" has nothing to do with "B".
If Trump downplayed the odds of you winning the lottery and then he actually won the lottery, would he be chastised for downplaying the odds of you winning?
Trump could very well test negative in a few days. Immune, back in the fight.
Won't matter to libs. One or both of these things will always be true:
-Trump will always have the corona and be a danger to society
-Trump is faking it, he and Melanoma don't have the Covid
Well we will now see if the deadly c19 is really so deadly against a fat man over 70.
Can we stop talking about what Trump failed to say exactly right about white supremacy as the debate? That was already over-played.
Don't tell US.
The VP debate should be of heightened importance. But I'd wager the audiance won't be 1/3 of the first Presidential debate even with the incapacitated factor.
I suspect we'll get a lot of questions starting like, "Mr. Vice President, you belong to a church that hates gay people...."
And Kamala's, "Oh, what a lovely outfit, "Who are you wearing?"
Howard said...
Trump is faking it, he and Melanoma don't have the Covid. I predict he makes a full recovery using oxyclean and arsenic proving to you people that the China Flu is nothing burger. This stunt proves that he knows he lost the debate
I just want to give everybody a second chance to see this.
"Well we will now see if the deadly c19 is really so deadly against a fat man over 70."
The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
I think that Trump has been taking hydroxychloroquine for months at this point, unless he stopped. I think it is not supposed to prevent infection but reduce symptoms in early stages of infection. So, this could be a N=1 test. If he remains asymptomatic, I'll bet he'll be talking about hydroxychloroquine. At one of the debates, he'll give a bottle to Joe to show he cares.
"doesn’t this show how his foolish and arrogant disregard of following the CDC suggestions on wearing mask has come back to bite him"
Not really. Do you wear a mask 100% of the time? I don't. I just saw a video of Diane Feinstien walking around an airport without a mask. We all saw Nancy Pelosi at her hairdresser. Everyone is constantly doing a threat assessment of their surroundings to determine when to mask or not.
Trump is just honest about it.
Also, masks are not face condoms. They lessen the viral load that reaches your lungs. But they don't provide 100% protection. What does this mean: even if you wear a mask, as the pandemic drags on, you *will still* get sick eventually. You will be able to delay when you get sick, but not prevent it. That's just how probability works.
Game Changer SWAGs
- Trump using HCQ to treat his Wuhan Flu / covid 19, and it acts like a cold. This shows the anti HCQ and lock downs were mistakes.
- Trump staying active via video, contrasting with Biden.
- Dems can’t increase their ground game due to their rhetoric on Covid.
- Left overplays it’s hand on Trumps diagnosis, and Trump uses this to destroy the lefts narrative on Covid.
- HCQ bias will be destroyed and shown to have killed thousands in the US. Results in widespread use of HCQ.
- Trump’s treatment convinces us voters Covid threat is minor. Left / Democrats are hyping Covid 19 health threat.
He put hundreds of his supporters at risk after finding out that hicks was positive and symptomatic. Shameful.
Blogger roesch/voltaire said...
Well I wish the president well, doesn’t this show how his foolish and arrogant disregard of following the CDC suggestions on wearing mask has come back to bite him, Karma is strange.
R/V has been celebrating in each thread today. The Wuhan flu has been dangerous for those over 80 and with comorbidities. Trump has neither. Try to restrain your glee.
The news has really energized Lefty Mark.
However, Howard is still not nearly as funny as he hopes.
Lefties don't get it...Trump is the man doing something...he is out there making things happen...he is, literally, the man in the arena.
And small men who hide and quiver and quake in the face of adversity always resent the man in the arena because as much as they wish it weren't so, they can never be that man.
Leftists are cowards and not to be taken seriously.
Barry Dauphin said...
I think that Trump has been taking hydroxychloroquine for months at this point, unless he stopped. I think it is not supposed to prevent infection but reduce symptoms in early stages of infection. So, this could be a N=1 test. If he remains asymptomatic, I'll bet he'll be talking about hydroxychloroquine. At one of the debates, he'll give a bottle to Joe to show he cares.
-------------================
Nancy will impeach Trump for prescribing/dispensing without license -
"Well I wish the president well, doesn’t this show how his foolish and arrogant disregard of following the CDC suggestions on wearing mask has come back to bite him, Karma is strange."
You are a fucking fool and a low IQ one at that.
People spend their entire lives eating healthy, exercising, not smoking, etc. and still get cancer. Millions of people all over the globe, every single year.
And many of them will die. And many of them are liberal morons.
What the fuck does this have to do with karma?
Cocksucker.
REMINDER:
Amy Coney Barrett will be a Supreme Court Justice.
Was the 'we can't hold ACB hearings since she was close to the President' gambit played yet? I didn't see it but I'd reckon it has/will ...
However, Howard is still not nearly as funny as he hopes.
The poor guy can't even troll properly. Sad!
What the fuck does this have to do with karma?
Cocksucker.
Do like Wu... COCKSUCKAH!!!!!!
There are two paths here- he either has mild/no symptoms (seems mild symptoms according to his latest tweet) and recovers by next week, or his condition worsens and he is hospitalized. From a purely political view, the first path is a boon to his political fortunes especially given the inability of his detractors from overplaying their hands (see Lefty Mark above for the perfect example). The second path will likely damage his chances at reelection or end them altogether- sure, there will a sympathy vote, but it won't be overcome by the fact that he might die after the election because being in the hospital for 3-4 weeks with a respiratory illness will completely negate Trump's previous large edge in vitality over Biden.
From what we know of the disease, and we know a lot, mild symptoms from which he recovers next week is by far the most likely outcome. We will know more by the end of the weekend.
Biden had just emerged from the basement to do a train tour, wonder if this news will have him returning to the basement.
If Biden catches the corona now the media narrative will be that Trump got corona on purpose to try to kill Biden.
I heard that if, heaven forbid, Trump does pass away he wants his seat to go to a Republican.
Good for the Ginsburg, good for the gander.
The WH Press Corps behaves in its usual Left-wing Democrat disgusting way. First question after learning Trump has CV-19 is to ask *when* he got the news, so they can claim he infected others knowingly. They are pieces of shit. You also get the usual nonsense from people, who don't understand "Social Distancing". Someone 6 feet away from you, can't infect you. Someone with a mask on that's 6 feet away, REALLY can't infect you.
Trump, Hicks, and everyone around them gets tested every day. So, it was just bad luck Trump got infected. Probably, Hicks had the virus and infected trump/mrs trump in that one day after she tested negative and before she tested positive. Bad luck.
A train tour -haha. so Biden can speak from a RR car for 30 minutes. Then go lie down for 23 hours. Pathetic.
A train tour -haha. so Biden can speak from a RR car for 30 minutes. Then go lie down for 23 hours. Pathetic.
the Leftists are dancing in the aisles over the possible death of the president. is anyone surprised at their hatred and vileness? But of course, once we elect Biden, they will treat everyone fairly and with decency. LOL!
Trump gets tested every day. So I doubt he had CV-19 at the debates. Boris Johnson and Abe both got CV-19 and recovered. I think Trump should recover fairly quickly. He's in very good shape for someone who's 72. No heart disease, diabetes, High blood pressure, or Lung problems. Biden is 78, if he gets it, he's a dead man. He has asthma.
Hopefully, Trump will recover quickly and be at the debates on Oct 15th. BTW, I have no doubt the first lady will be OK. She's healthy AND much younger. Chances of Hospitalization are very very low.
Gives Biden and Harris the excuse they need to bug out of the remaining debates.
Folks already on TV lying to downplay. But Trump is reported to have symptoms, is a he, over 65 (quite a bit) and BMI over 30 (how much?). Whether develops as mild or severe remains to be seen.
I hope Trump calls the Yale epidemiologist and gets the hydroxychloroquine plus treatment. Smart thing to do for several reasons.
A quick recovery after hydroxy plus might modulate some of the assholes including the ones here.
Maybe the debate crew planted covid on his podium/lectern/speaky thing.
I bet Trump got an invitation from Cuomo to tour NY nursery homes.
1: Masks don't protect you from getting infected. Not unless you have a properly fitted N95 mask, which no one is wearing in public
2: Masks lower the chance that you will infect someone else. Since the issue here is that Trump caught it, anyone banging on Trump's mask wearing is being "anti-Science"
3: There's a couple ways this can go:
A: Trump takes HCQ & Zinc, and gets two negative test results in the next week or so:
Electoral bonanza for Trump.
"We flattened the curve, we have treatments that work, now let's get America back to work!" Everyone who can't telework votes for Trump because they want their lives back. And votes GOP down ticket, too, esp on State and Local elections, because nothing else will keep them from getting screwed over
B: Trump gets serious case, ends up in hospital / ICU:
Electoral bonanza for Biden.
"Everything Trump said is wrong, We have to shut down the country and keep it shut down until the coronavirus is gone"
Republicans get hammered up and down the ticket
C: Trump dies from Covid
???
All those suburban women voting against that mean guy Trump now have nice guy Mike Pence to vote for.
Biden's been running on a "vote for me to stop Trump". If Trump is dead, the "anti-Trump" vote goes away. What's he got left? Vote for me to get the Green New Deal? Vote for me to get Court Packing?
We're looking at a better than 90% chance of A, esp if the science about HCG & zinc that I've been following turns out to be correct.
I would have preferred that he didn't get the positive test. But, since that has happened, I like the odds for the GOP better than the Dems. Because teh infection fatality rate for people Trump's age and weight is still a LOT below 50%
Masks don't protect you. They help stop you from spitting and aerosoling the virus to others. Individual viral particles go right through a mask. Most people are wearing masks around others, and have been for months, and yet as the medias reminds you dozen of times a day, lots of people are still getting it and most of them wore masks.
The thought crosses my mind that of the four people on the ballot, Mike Pence is probably the closest Ann Althouse could come to her dream of a boring candidate. Leaving aside the unlikelihood that a truly boring person could win the nomination, I find it more comforting that Trump is backed up by a genuinely good man than the notion of Joe Biden backed up by an evil person who got her senatorial seat over the bodies of young black men receiving absurdly stiff sentences for possessing minute quantities of marijuana.
NYT — imposes the narrative: "The president’s result came after he spent months playing down the severity of the outbreak that has killed more than 207,000 in the United States and hours after insisting that 'the end of the pandemic is in sight.'"
Excluding external factors (e.g. immigration reform), many areas reached suppression levels. Some areas have missed the mark or sustained the spread through misleading mitigation strategies, and will have recurring spikes, but not exponential mortality near the early magnitude (the virus has evolved). Aside from Planned Parent, and some exceptional cases where there was poor hygienic practices (e.g. construction sites), Covid-19 has produced excess mortality and impairment comparable to seasonal flus, where the latter have been classified below normal levels during the pandemic.
Past, probable, present, or disease?
Past, probable, present, disease... or false positive?
HCQ as border guard, and intracellular Zinc, reduce the viral load through controlling and inhibiting viral reproduction, Az to control infection and inflammatory response. They work in a manner similar to vaccines. The infection still occurs, there may be side-effects, perhaps fatal, but generally there is limited disease progression, mortality, and impairment. Even in high risk individuals, the latter is improbable, and occurs in numbers comparable to seasonal flus.
Masks don't protect you
The masks in common use offer some utility for source control (e.g. forced expulsions), but must be changed regularly to remain effective. They have limited utility to protect against aerosols. They may reduce cross-contamination through fecal spread, or exacerbate the problem with poorly trained individuals.
Biden on a train makes me think of this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/01/snp-mp-margaret-ferrier-took-train-after-positive-covid-test
An SNP MP has been suspended from her party and faced multiple calls to resign after taking a train from London to Scotland knowing that she had tested positive for Covid-19.
Margaret Ferrier, the SNP MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West, apologised unreservedly for major breaches of Covid regulations. It emerged that it was nearly two days after receiving the positive result that she told her party whip.
On Saturday she began suffering symptoms of the virus and took a test. Despite this, she travelled 400 miles to London by train on Monday – a journey of five hours and 40 minutes – to attend parliament, where she made a brief speech in the evening during a debate on coronavirus.
That evening she was also told she had tested positive for the virus. It is unclear whether she was told that before or after she spoke in parliament, about the replacement of the furlough scheme.
The following morning, Tuesday, she travelled by train to Scotland without seeking advice but knowing she had the virus.
1: 48 hours for a test result? Pathetic. I've been tested twice, both times I got my negative results in under 24 hours (and once was on a Saturday).
It's faster and easier to get a positive result than a negative one
2: Had symptoms, didn't quarantine until got test results back, and rode a public train.
In a place that was serious about Covid, that would get you a criminal conviction.
3: Got results either before or shortly after speaking in Parliament, then took another 5+ hour train ride.
I expect the SNP to dump her by Sunday. That's some world class foot shooting there
Well I wish the president well, doesn’t this show how his foolish and arrogant disregard of following the CDC suggestions on wearing mask has come back to bite him, Karma is strange.
We've been mandated to wear fucking masks for four months now, and not a damn thing has changed with regards to the numbers.
Shove that mask up your ass.
Jim at said...Shove that mask up your ass.
--
Well..there IS that fecal transmission vector..
roesch/voltaire said...
Well I wish the president well, doesn’t this show how his foolish and arrogant disregard of following the CDC suggestions on wearing mask has come back to bite him, Karma is strange.
R/v is clearly a religious zealot who hates science
A properly fitted N95 mask should somewhat protect you from coronavirus. You know you're wearing one of those if a sharp scent is set off right next to you, and you can't smell it through your mask.
Hint: To a first order approximation, no one is wearing those masks in public
A properly worn mask that is cycled and washed on a regular basis, where you never touch the inside, will catch globules you exhale (if you do touch the inside, they'll then get on your hands, and you could end up spreading them to any place you touch. If your hands get contaminated, and you touch the inside of your mask, you'll be much more likely to breathe in that contamination, and get sick).
So if you are infected, and don't realize it, wearing a mask over your nose and mouth makes it less likely you'll infect those around you.
(Because so long as you're not a SNP MP, you of course won't go out around people once you know you're infected. Right?)
So, if people who were around Trump, and not around Hope Hicks, start coming down with Covid 19, you could blame that on Trump.
But blaming Trump's lack of mask wearing for him catching it is ignorant and stupid
Yo IT IS WHAT IT IS GET OVER IT........ :)
Was the 'we can't hold ACB hearings since she was close to the President' gambit played yet? I didn't see it but I'd reckon it has/will ...
According to multiple sources, ACB tested positive for covid earlier this year and has since fully recovered. So that line of attack will not work.
Was the 'we can't hold ACB hearings since she was close to the President' gambit played yet? I didn't see it but I'd reckon it has/will ...
According to multiple sources, ACB tested positive for covid earlier this year and has since fully recovered. So that line of attack will not work.
Karma isn't real, and masks, as used by the general public, have no affect on the spread of the virus.
"...The VP debate next week looms large. We've been talking about how Kamala Harris is perhaps secretly the real presidential candidate, and now we can say the same thing about Mike Pence...?" Gees, that last comment on Pence is a real stretch - sounds like you expect President Trump to kick the bucket? The last VP debate Pence-Kane attracted 37 million viewers in 2016 vs. 84 million Trump - Clinton. Trump - Biden audience was estimated to be about 73 million in 2020. So I expect they may hit in the 30 million range for the under card Pence-Biden. Big deal?
Re: Jim:
We've been mandated to wear fucking masks for four months now, and not a damn thing has changed with regards to the numbers.
I disagree. Compare the initial peak states (NY/NJ/CT/MA) with the states that successfully delayed their peak (CA/TX/FL). Deaths are way, way lower, which suggests to me that the actual infection numbers are way way lower too.
That's consistent with antibody test results. NY antibody tests are apparently indicating around 20% of the population was infected (i.e. around 4 million people), but New York has just under 500,000 confirmed cases. If you adjust backwards (either spreading the implied case numbers from antibody tests or just from the estimated infection fatality rate), our March-April peak was actually much worse than the July-August peak.
In absolute terms, deaths per day at the second peak were lower too, despite the affected states being significantly more populous than New York.
That's not all down to masks -- some of it is just Cuomo pumping New York deaths up by sending infected patients into nursing homes. Florida, California, and Texas all avoided that boneheaded move. But I think masks are a not insignificant piece of the story. Places that consistently masked up, like Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, have had very mild spread. Places that masked up early and then lifted compulsory mask mandates, like the Czech republic, avoided significant spread in the Spring but are now scrambling to contain a second wave (albeit one that still seems much milder than what hit Italy/France/Spain). And places where highly credentialed public health experts started out advising the public that masks don't work, like the US and UK and any country unfortunate or foolish enough to trust the WHO, got hammered.
Masks aren't magic, and they're not a 100% solution, but they do help.
Re: Greg:
if you do touch the inside, they'll then get on your hands, and you could end up spreading them to any place you touch.
I carry around a little Purell for just this reason. Also, a lot of shops and restaurants in Japan insist on spraying your hands before you enter to avoid this. Some restaurants have little disinfectant spritzers at each table so you can disinfect after taking your mask off, putting it on, etc. These aren't insurmountable problems. And even if people only do it right 50% of the time, that will still have a substantial effect on transmission.
The first presidential debate for real is next Wednesday. Last Tuesday was a head fake ( old?)
Nobody who wore a mask ever got the virus.
Not just lack of masks. Also flaunted flouting of social distancing.
AA - I think this new poll by IBD-TIPP (called Trump 2016) is an interesting poll - still has Biden up (but down from last poll) but within margin of error. Not really interested in the 'headline' number which is just whatever the D-R-I percentages are. But the real gold nugget for President Trump is the narrative result of minority numbers. Both Blacks and Hispanics are moving toward Trump in huge numbers vs. 2016. If true Biden loses bigtime. This is a major poll exhibits an inflection point and we're still 30 days from the election.
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-after-presidential-debate-ibd-tipp-poll/
IBD Poll:
https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-after-presidential-debate-ibd-tipp-poll/
Joe Biden's lead over President Donald Trump has narrowed to 2.6 points among likely voters
1st point: if Biden "wins the popular vote" by < 3%, he's going to lose in the EC, and lose the race
After the debate, 19% of registered voters who watched said they switched their vote, with 11% backing Trump and 8% shifting to Biden.
I guess we know who won the debate
Despite Biden's polling edge, just 36% of voters expect him to win, while 45% think Trump will prevail. Meanwhile, 46% think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, while 36% think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.
To my mind, this is how you look for "shy Trump voters". "I'm a good person, I'm not going to vote for that bad Orange Man! But my neighbors? They'er all going to vote for him."
I'd love to see the cross tabs on this. But my expectation is that anyone who says they've voting for Biden, but they expect Trump to win & expect most of their neighbors to vote for Trump, those people are actually voting for Trump
Trump leads among white voters, 53-42%. Pew Research says Trump won among white voters in 2016, 54%-39%.
However, Trump could do better among Hispanic voters than his 28%-66% deficit in 2016. He trails Biden among Hispanics, 36.5%-60%. Black voters prefer Biden, 76%-15%.
If Trump gets 36% of the Hispanic vote and 15% of the black vote, Biden's toast
The Biden campaign has just announced that in the spirit of his late supporter John McCain’s Fall of 2008 campaign pause, the Democrat candidate will stay off the trail until a cured POTUS returns.
Just kidding...
Is it inconceivable that the presidents enemies in the deep state have intentionally infected him and his team?
I have it on good authority that the FBI and CIA have 6 ways to Sunday to get back at him.
Narayanan said...
Barry Dauphin said...
I think that Trump has been taking hydroxychloroquine for months at this point, unless he stopped. I think it is not supposed to prevent infection but reduce symptoms in early stages of infection. So, this could be a N=1 test. If he remains asymptomatic, I'll bet he'll be talking about hydroxychloroquine. At one of the debates, he'll give a bottle to Joe to show he cares.
-------------================
Nancy will impeach Trump for prescribing/dispensing without license -
10/2/20, 9:19 AM
My unconfirmed understanding is that President Trump took what was probably a two-week prophylactic course of HCQ after being advised of potential exposure to some aide in the White House. I do not believe he has continued taking it indefinitely. One wouldn't, without reason. Hope Hicks or who/whatever the vector just snuck through somehow.
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