September 25, 2020

"Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of the Democratic data firm Hawkfish, has warned of an election-day 'red mirage' of victory for Mr. Trump, which will be replaced in short order by a 'blue shift'..."

"...as the outstanding, heavily Democratic mail ballots are counted. Such a dramatic change from the election-night result could lead to baseless Republican charges of fraud and cries that the election was rigged, which could spark dangerous political unrest. These nightmare scenarios ignore several key facts, however. Most states begin processing their ballots before election day, and almost all begin putting them through scanners before the polls close. Many states intermingle sent-by-mail and election-day ballots at the polling places, where they are scanned together, so that when the precinct count is released, it contains both in-person and mail ballots. In such states—which include such battlegrounds as New Hampshire and most of Wisconsin—the polling place counts may be released a few hours later than they might in another year, but not days later. More generally, local jurisdictions have been preparing all summer for a surge in mail ballots; most will be counted on election day in parallel with the day’s in-person ballots, so that the results of many ballots cast in advance can be announced early on election night."

From "Actually, We Will Know a Lot on Election Night/Most states begin processing their presidential ballots before Nov. 3, and local officials have been preparing all summer for a surge in mail ballots" (Wall Street Journal).

100 comments:

stevew said...

If it works that way, and the vote counters perform their work on mail in and absentee ballots with honesty and integrity, then the "contested election" scenario will turn out to be similar to the Year 2000 scare.

stevew said...

This doesn't help with the honesty and integrity assertion:

Ballots found in the trash in PA were all for Trump

gilbar said...

Most states begin processing their ballots before election day, and almost all begin putting them through scanners before the polls close.

yes, BUT
since The MAJORITY of democrat ballots won't make it to the polling stations until 5-14 days AFTER the election (since they won't be mailed (or even completed,) until 1-2 days AFTER the election), What he is warning us about IS TRUE

For SEVERAL days after the election,
it will continue to look as though President Trump won in a landslide....
BUT, once All the fraudulent votes have been manufactured and counted;
Jo Biden will be announced the REAL winner

Ralph L said...

But the Dems will keep finding uncounted ballots in car trunks until they win.

Amadeus 48 said...

Nobody knows what is happening, but I will be surprised if Team Trump doesn't have their own vote-by-mail operation. They just aren't talking about it.

What I hear them saying, like Br'er Rabbit, is, "Don't throw me in that briar patch."

David Begley said...

News you can use from the WSJ!

I wondered about the timing of vote counting just yesterday on Twitter.

How could this Mendelssohn NOT know this critical fact?

Leland said...

Mendelsohn failed to predict Trump's victory in 2016. Now, not only can he predict a Biden victory, but he can predict how the events of the victory will unfold for days after election day.

MountainMan said...

Then why has MI, I think, been given the green light to continue counting ballots for 14 days?

Lucid-Ideas said...

"These nightmare scenarios ignore several key facts, however."

Lol no shit. They're not designed to represent realistic scenarios. They're designed as battle-space preparation and motivation for their base to reject the results of the election.

They can't use Russia again. Even their dumbest people would ask questions like "What!? You let Putin skunk us again?"

Michael P said...

The point of reports like Hawkfish's is not to warn. It is battlespace preparation, so that when Democratic bastions start "discovering" uncounted ballots after Election Day, they can say everyone knew this would happen and that it's illegitimate to point out that the chain of custody was broken.

tim maguire said...

I love how the election hasn’t even happened yet but the anticipated claims of fraud have already been declared baseless.

Quayle said...

And exit polls are now meaningless.

Wilbur said...

Nothing will matter but turnout and electoral fraud.

I expect both to be high.

wendybar said...

Democrats are already cheating. We should only vote in person. This is ridiculous. We are the laughingstock of the world. Even India with millions more people have a better voting system then we do...and they have voter ID.

cornroaster said...

The Democrat battle cry after the election will echo Russ Feingold during the recall campaign - "Its never over until we win." The election should be settled by legal voters, not lawyers afterward.

Brian said...

These facts are the tell that the DNC won't allow Trump to win again. Even if he does. They are prepping the media (and the populace) that they won't allow for the peaceful re-election.

Bob Smith said...

It’s been the Dems plan all along. The trial run was the Minnesota Senate race where they were able to replace Norm Coleman with that baggy pants massage expert. The one who had to resign in disgrace.

Michael said...

But the most comforting fact is that the USPS has nearly a dozen Republican mail carriers.

Kevin said...

There is no reason ballots don’t have to be received and counted by Election Day.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Landslide. Joe’s allies are panicking finally. A Trump landslide on Election Day will be difficult to reverse with everyone on the lookout for fraud. Trump will rack up so many states we won’t need west coast results on November 3.

daskol said...

Time to invest in flamethrower stocks.

daskol said...

I would have found it hard to believe in January, but it is clear that the Federal bureaucracy's response to COVID19 has been largely a Democratic Party stratagem. First, suppress (hopefully temporary) the roaring economy, and secondly, increase the margin of fraud in this election dramatically, to basically whatever level you need to beat the actual ballots cast. If you call this a conspiracy theory, well, that's also part of the stratagem. Sometimes, I guess, you have to burn the village to save the village. Only they think they're burning the village with this stratagem, and they don't realize other people have actual flamethrowers.

rehajm said...

The 'blue shift' scenario really is: Trump leads in the election night vote counts then leftie lawyers hit the courts to steal it.

If you Clintonparse the poll data, watch what the candidates are doing, where they are going, instead of listening to what they and the legacy media are saying, Trump is looking good at the moment.

One thing to notice: Democrats have shifted big time from encouraging mail in ballots to getting their people to the polls. A hint that they're plans to steal won't be as easy as they once thought...

mockturtle said...

I should think that most people receiving mail-in ballots would send them in well before election day. The most likely delayed ballots would be overseas military. And we'd be rightly suspicious of any mother-lode find of lost ballots days or weeks later which would most certainly be Dem votes.

Krumhorn said...

It is inescapable that some operative in Rhinelander will “discover” a crap pile of uncounted ballots in the trunk of a car that will...miraculously...be blue ballots sufficient at the margins to change the outcome. Let’s not forget how that assclown in MN got elected to the senate.

- Krumhorn

J Melcher said...

Calling the race in Florida before their panhandle polls close is illegal, I think. Similarly announcing results of early voting before all mailed ballots are secure should be prohibted. You don't want to tell cheaters how many ballots to "find".

MartyH said...

Solely on the basis of the accuracy of conventional wisdom these past four years, this projection of late counted votes swinging the election to Biden will be wrong. It will be Democrats disputing the results of the election. "No way Trump got 20% of the black vote and 35% of the Hispanic! Vote fraud!"

Craig said...

So the Left will take our country away from us sloooowly, to inflict maximum pain at the end of 2020. Just rip the Trump Band-Aid off on Election Night and get it over with.

rehajm said...

If the election is not deemed credible, the incumbent has to stay in power. It has to be that way. The alternative would be worse, even if the parties were reversed.

Yup.

Krumhorn said...

When the lefties say ‘resist by any means necessary!’, they mean by any means! Trump will have to have a 40 state sweep in order to overcome the vote fraud. Anyone who doubts that is seriously delusional. I was the chairman of the Independence Party in a large NY county for a few years. I know some of how it is done.

- Krumhorn

rhhardin said...

They won't count the tossed-out ones, or the discovered late ones. The margin of fraud is a lot bigger this time, so that even a landslide can be defeated.

Bob Boyd said...

Hawkfish is Michael Bloomberg's.

Todd said...

"Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of the Democratic data firm Hawkfish, has warned of an election-day 'red mirage' of victory for Mr. Trump, which will be replaced in short order by a 'blue shift'..."
"...as the outstanding, heavily Democratic mail ballots are counted.


and re-counted, and re-counted, and recounted.

Remember, "the counting an't done until the Democrat has won". The unspoken DNC motto.

PHenry said...

Sure, if Biden is ahead, the ballots will all be counted on election day. If, however, Biden is short, expect ballots to be counted for as long as it takes for Biden to make up the deficit. Ballots in car trunks, closets, vans and ditches take days or even weeks to be 'found' and counted.
Then, when two weeks or more after the election the corrected result is announced, expect dictator Trump to contest the result. But don't fall for that. Once the Biden Wins! result is reached, you can rest assured there was no election fraud. That is rare and irrelevant. And remember, we warned you!

Unknown said...

Criminals so brazen

They inform how you will be ripped off

In advance

TreeJoe said...

Huge broad assertions with no hard independent data presented.

Battleground preparation.

lane ranger said...

For some unknowable reason, the article provides no hypotheticals of President Trump demonstrating an overwhelming lead on election night, only scenarios in which Biden leads.

PB said...

Mr Mendelsohn doesn't portray someone competent in data analysis by showing his ignorance of how voting actually works.

Temujin said...

Think about 4 years of President Harris. Just. Think. About. It.

I'm Full of Soup said...

Hawkfish is Mike Bloomberg's company.

iowan2 said...

Thursday, Dems shifted their talking point on voting by mail. NOW the Dems are encouriging everyone to vote in person. Why?
Seems the number of disqualified mail in ballots, reaches as high as 20%. Mail in voting is not complicated, but the directions run to 20 bullet points of items the ballot must have correct to be validated and counted. My guess, The President has sent out thousands of poll watchers specifically to be involved with verifying each and every mail in ballot, and demand the laws in place concerning mail in ballots be followed to the letter.
In short, President Trump has sniffed out the fraud, and sent Americans to oversee the process. And Democrats have finally realized that President Trump knows.

Birkel said...

This prediction will be quite wrong.

Trump will win every state he won in 2016.
Plus he will win some of Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, New Jersey, and ME-2 or the whole of Maine.

Trump will increase his proportion of the vote in Texas, Florida, California, New York, and Illinois.
He will receive 50% plus 1 (or more) nationwide.

The walk back from the lies of 13% leads has started earlier this year than it did in 2016.
Last time they lasted to within two weeks of the general election.

The press squandered its influence.
Good.

MayBee said...

I think it says a lot about our system that there are now "Democratic Data Firms"


(our governor tried to use one to do COVID contact tracing, btw)

Kevin said...

The Democrats are so sure they can manufacture a win that Biden’s not bothering to campaign.

West Texas Intermediate Crude said...

Ballots are supposed to be secret.
How does Mr Mendelson know that they will be "heavily Democratic."
Just askin'.

Howard said...

Althouse is churning you people into a lather for art

Bob Boyd said...

The Griftocracy will say Biden won no matter what. Trump is an existential crisis for them.

NCMoss said...

Isn't turning blue symptomatic of cyanosis?

Tina Trent said...

If you approve of murdering cops and destroying other people's property, by all means vote Joe. Even if you're gay: go ahead and incuriously believe the lies about Trump being anti-gay as you own property and traverse cities. Property can be stolen after sundown, or any other time. Your faces will be the faces that are bashed first when you achieve your dumb goals of defunding police.

Joe's asleep when it happens, and it's a chimera to him afterwards. But still, lets be honest about the cities. I literally cannot openly converse with my (several, politically closeted) gay friends and acquaintances who are secretly voting for Trump (so much for diversity) because of the ones who are so enraged at his existence that they will viciously purge anyone who deviates from their norms by even speaking to me, who will rise to the degree of denying that they are sick of rising crime and vandalism in their neighborhoods.

Not allies I choose or tolerate. Too dishonest with themselves to be nominally sane. You will get what you ask for, and get it good and hard. Sorry you didn't choose to treat us like humans when you could, kiddies.

Marshall Rose said...

Laying the groundwork now to justify all the found
and harvested ballots.

California in 2018 was the test run, and it worked. How many races flipped days and weeks after the fact?

Paul said...

if any of you have heard about Gregg County Texas and the arrest of 4 DEMOCRAT on over 180 felony charges of vote fraud with mail in votes... you will see the 'FIX' is in.

That is why Biden was the nominee. They know they are gonna cheat their way in and then Harris will be the 'president'. It's a cheat'en fix.

If you want to vote folks, GO IN PERSON. No mail in votes except those that just have to do use that method.

If the elections are not free and fair... REAL RIOTS and CIVIL WAR are what you are going to see. Got that?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-voter-fraud?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_conversation&spot_im_redirect_source=notifications&spot_im_comment_id=sp_ANQXRpqH_urn%243Auri%243Abase64%243A0e286019-2acb-5f6c-844d-e47e2dd86753_c_1i0La6kMDYHoHzrWs1jnYUmWVz3&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true

DanTheMan said...

> "the counting ain't done until the Democrat has won".

Then all recounts stop, of course.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

In other words, don't worry, they'll know before the polls close how many ballots they need to find...

Anonymous said...

It's called Battlefield Preparation. With Hillary shrieking that Biden shouldn't concede under any circumstances, and with ballots being dumped and rejected hither and yon, the Dems are hoping --- and planning! --- for chaos in November.

Tom Servaux said...

We have a 'foment' sighting in the last paragraph of that article, btw.

Narayanan said...

Why won't they announce the totals first >>> set a limit to expectations
then the breakdown between candidates? >>>> result of their honest work-product?

USA behavior will not fly in most other countries -

Larry J said...

The Democrats stole the 1960 presidential election using vote fraud in a few states. They're trying to go much bigger this time and they're completely brazen about it. The fraud used in the Al Fraken election was simple - keep "finding" votes until you get enough to declare victory and then refuse to look any further. Everyone sees what is going on despite the press and Democrat (but I repeat myself) lies. This is exactly the kind of thing that tears countries apart, but the Democrats only care about their own personal power. Damn them, damn them all.

Narayanan said...

rehajm said...
The 'blue shift' scenario really is:
......
scientific evidence that the universe is collapsing [red shift mean expanding, growing, more prosperous, happier etc. ]

Professional lady said...

My husband, father, and I will have absentee ballots. I will deliver them personally to the clerk's office.

Todd said...

West Texas Intermediate Crude said...

Ballots are supposed to be secret.
How does Mr Mendelson know that they will be "heavily Democratic."
Just askin'.

9/25/20, 7:57 AM


After careful analysis of the past 10 Presidential elections, the conclusions are irrefutable. By overwhelming majorities (on the order of 99.99%) the dead [mail-in] vote Democrat, a much smaller percentage do in-person voting but most lack the needed mobility and so vote by mail.

Some would say that this sort of disparity in the voting patterns of the dead indicates fraud BUT others point out that maybe, just maybe the dead have insights that we the living lack and that the only thing stopping the living from matching this Democrat leaning percentage is the inability for the dead to talk to us directly and explain why.

Dave Begley said...

1. This Battlefield Prep as other have noted. CNN and MSNBC know what to do.

2. We need real voting reform. ID. Clamp down in mail-in voting.

Swede said...

Prepping the battlefield.

There is no reason not to know who the winner is of any election by the next day.

None.

Blatant fraud is being dressed up as "counting votes".

No.

Bruce Hayden said...

“ I would have found it hard to believe in January, but it is clear that the Federal bureaucracy's response to COVID19 has been largely a Democratic Party stratagem. First, suppress (hopefully temporary) the roaring economy, and secondly, increase the margin of fraud in this election dramatically, to basically whatever level you need to beat the actual ballots cast. If you call this a conspiracy theory, well, that's also part of the stratagem. Sometimes, I guess, you have to burn the village to save the village. Only they think they're burning the village with this stratagem, and they don't realize other people have actual flamethrowers.”

My problem there is that of determining where incompetence ends and advertence begins. I don’t think that Cuomo and DeBlasio set out to kill so many of their citizens. Rather, I suspect incompetence. My theory is that the decision to send COVID-19 infected patients into nursing homes was because the state, through Medicaid, would pay less for them in those nursing homes, than if they remained in hospitals. The insanity is that they had a perfectly good mostly empty hospital ship sitting in the harbor, but chose to send them into nursing homes instead. This sort of brain dead top down decision making played out across the country, with Blue State governors looking to have IQs at least a standard deviation below their Red State counterparts. I don’t think that was actually the case, but rather I expect that it was the usual socialist hubris that inevitably leads to dysfunctional micromanagement. And face it - the sort of power that they could wield in (supposedly) fighting COVID-19 was intoxicating for those who believe in top down decision making (I.e. Democrats).

I do think though that there was quite a bit of advertence with the rioting and arson. We saw this being planning in the summer of 2019. I expect it went back a couple years before that with Soros and company buying DAs and AGs across the country (as they have also bought election officials). Those people very likely want to destroy the democratic underpinnings of this country, presumably to be replaced by a new world government. But the politicians who got behind defunding the policing, eliminating bail, etc were, I believe, witless dupes, esp when they stayed the course as their cities burned down around them.

I do think that there was a lot of advertence with the demand that we go to a mail-in election. This is, I think, a classic case of not allowing a crisis go to waste. There are, of course, no rational reasons to go to mail-in voting, except to commit voter fraud on an industrial level. No one has really made a serious argument for months why it was needed. It was just assumed by the MSM, academia, etc, to be necessary, and imposed from the top. I think that a number of top Dems looked at their primary field and started to worry. That worry shifted into panic when they realized that their selected candidate had rapidly advancing dementia, and in that state, probably picked one of the more loathsome running mates he could have. The Trump base is energized - more so every day. Their voter registration and GOTV efforts are remarkably effective - For example, in Florida, the traditional Dem registration advantage has almost disappeared. Biden is only looking competitive because pollsters are significantly oversampling Dems and urban voters. We know the former, because they don’t reflect current party affiliation, but rather pre-Trump party affiliations.

We know that there is a lot of advertence, because the Dems started putting together a massive legal campaign at least as early as early summer to litigate their way to power, should they, as expected, lose the election. Tens of millions of dollars were raised, and thousands of attorneys were lined up. They are ready to rush into court across the country, to try to take through the courts, what they know that they will lose in a free, fair, and honest election.

JAORE said...

I am hoping for a Trump wave where these concerns vanish...


I am hoping the Trump wave eliminates this foolishness.

Who am I kidding. Recall after 2016? All those scenarios where Hillary will still be President? Up to and including a tidal wave of faithless electors.

This is the "Keep Hope Alive" fantasy of the left.

There will be blood.

buwaya said...

"USA behavior will not fly in most other countries -"

No it wont. And moreover international election observers, many of them Americans or working for American dominated international institutions, will call out such obvious irregularities.

But not in the United States itself.

Michael K said...

Leland said...
Mendelsohn failed to predict Trump's victory in 2016. Now, not only can he predict a Biden victory, but he can predict how the events of the victory will unfold for days after election day.


Battlespace prep.

The trial run was in 2018 in Orange County CA and the AZ Senate race. The GOP reps were ahead after election day then the harvested ballots trickled in over the next 10 days. Same in AZ. The Democrat election registrar opened polls in Phoenix before legally allowed to

Michael K said...

A lot of people, mostly Democrats, don't understand the difference between absentee and mail-in ballots. Absentee you request, creating a chain of custody. They don't get it.

Bruce Hayden said...

“The walk back from the lies of 13% leads has started earlier this year than it did in 2016.
Last time they lasted to within two weeks of the general election.”

“The press squandered its influence.”

I don’t think that the latter is correct. Rather I think that they have realized that they are trying to take on one of the more gifted natural politicians with nothing. Biden is making Crooked Hillary look energetic in her campaigning four years ago. Neither of their candidates can be trusted out in public. Meanwhile the enthusiasm for Trump just keeps building. The momentum is all on his side. The writing is on the wall. New party registrations are suggesting a blow out. Keeping things close, with Crooked Hillary with a slight lead going into the election made sense - after all, she did get more votes than Trump, though it is very possible that much of that popular vote leas was from over and illegals voting. We all know what they did in 2016 - which was pollsters artificially inflating her lead over Trump in the polls until close to the election, when they were allowed to float to roughly where they were much closer to representing the reality on the ground. It was predicted in the summer of 2016 and we watched her supposedly insurmountable lead collapse during the fall. This time, the pollsters, and the MSM commissioning the polls, know that Biden cannot realistically be that far ahead of Trump. He is again pulling in record crowds at his events while Biden’s few events have sparse attendance by unenthusiastic party faithful. We are well beyond the place where a big Biden lead is plausible.

Enlighten-NewJerse said...

New Jersey is conducting a mail-in election and is sending a ballot to everyone currently listed on voter rolls, including the dead, the moved, those otherwise ineligible to vote and those who may not wish to vote. Voting in person can only be done by provisional ballot at a polling place, although the state is reducing the number of locations by 50 percent.

Ballots will be counted in New Jersey if received by November 10, but post marked by November 3. However, the return envelope does not require postage and with no stamp to cancel it remains to be seen how many will receive a postmark date. I anticipate great controversy over what to do with the non postmarked ballots received after November 3.

Election officials will verify a signature on the ballot with the voter registration book. However, the state has said evaluators should presume that the ballot was signed by the named person and must accept a signature as valid unless there is a clear discrepancy that cannot be reasonably explained. Ballots lacking a signature or with a rejected signature will generate a cure letter for the voter to fix the problem prior to the certification of election results. The signature verification process is all for show and unless a completely different name is singed, the ballot will count. Not much of a safeguard.

New Jersey election officials mailed 3,751,489 ballots to registered Democrats and Republicans for the July 7th primary. A total of 1,466,366 ballots were cast and counted with 2,285,123 unused. Imagine the general election with hundreds of thousands of unused ballots floating around the state. It also took the state 33 days to count and certify the primary vote, from July 7 until August 9. How long do you suppose it will take for this year's general election? The entire process is ripe for fraud. Purposely, no doubt. I received my mail-in ballot yesterday. Vote early before anyone sees the debates and what transpires before Election Day.

rcocean said...

So the MSM and the "experts" are telling us how the Democrats are going to steal the election, but any fraud won't really be fraud. Why? Because "we say so". See, if Trump and the R's point out the fraud, that will be "Baseless". facebook's zuckerprick, Google and Twitter have all decided - in advance - that they are going to censor anyone pointing out the Election Fraud.

The D's have their game-plan and they're executing it. What are the R's doing to counter it? nothing. Only Trump is talking about it. the worthless R establishment and Senators are doing/saying zero.

Bruce Hayden said...

"USA behavior will not fly in most other countries -"

“No it wont. And moreover international election observers, many of them Americans or working for American dominated international institutions, will call out such obvious irregularities.”

I think that everyone here knows what is going on. The Dem party has been able to maintain power for nearing a century now if not longer, by cheating. Early in the 20th Century, it was walking around money in trade for votes. As noted above, Joe Kennedy complained about having paid for too many votes, when he bought his son’s election to the Presidency sixty years ago. We are all pretty numb now to Dem candidates losing on Election Day, but ultimately prevail, after boxes and trunk loads of ballots are mysteriously discovered, and counted later, that miraculously inevitably mostly benefit the Dem candidate. And, they have been in power for so long, that the judges determine whether to accept the late found ballots, were inevitably appointed by other Dem politicians. By now, their cheating has been institutionalized.

They claim voter suppression, but any of them with IQs higher than their body temps, know that is completely BS. Study after study have been unable to find any significant voter suppression. Voter ID laws? Everyone anymore has a photo ID, and people are exceedingly rare who get turned away at the polls for not having one. We see this, time after time. Measures to cleanup voting are routinely opposed and/or undermined by Dem politicians, who were often installed into office by the very same voting fraud that the measures that they are opposing, or undermining, were designed to correct.

Michael said...

Perennial explanation for delayed reporting in Chicago:

"How can I count the votes 'til I know how many I need?"

JeanE said...

I know it would cause a delay in getting results, but it seems reasonable to wait until ALL votes have been submitted before counting ANY of them. Once the counting starts, no more votes added. That essentially is the reason for having people drop ballots into a box on a set day- all the votes are collected first, and then they are counted. That doesn't make it impossible to cheat, but it eliminates the "oh look, we just found these extra ballots" issue. If State X wants to accept mail in ballots up to 5 days after the election, then they just don't count ANY of the ballots until 5 days after the election.

SensibleCitizen said...

Why is the assumption that charges of fraud would be baseless? We are only now getting to the bottom of stolen ballots from the 2018 primary election in Gregg County, Texas. 134 felony charges have been filed against the county commissioner and her cronies.

Will we have to wait until 2022 to know that the DNC stole the election for Biden? What would happen then?

PHenry said...

rcocean said...
So the MSM and the "experts" are telling us how the Democrats are going to steal the election, but any fraud won't really be fraud. Why? Because "we say so". See, if Trump and the R's point out the fraud, that will be "Baseless". facebook's zuckerprick, Google and Twitter have all decided - in advance - that they are going to censor anyone pointing out the Election Fraud.

Pointing out Democrat vote fraud is 'divisive' and will cause riots and unrest. It would tear the country apart. So it won't be allowed.

tommyesq said...

Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of the Democratic data firm Hawkfish, has warned of an election-day “red mirage” of victory for Mr. Trump, which will be replaced in short order by a “blue shift” as the outstanding, heavily Democratic mail ballots are counted. Such a dramatic change from the election-night result could lead to baseless Republican charges of fraud and cries that the election was rigged, which could spark dangerous political unrest.

Sandwiched lie alert - the "outstanding, heavily Democratic mail ballots." There is no proof that mail-in ballots will lean "heavily democratic," this is simply battleground preparation so that when "found" ballots miraculously turn out to be almost entirely democratic, people do not question how this could be. You cannot look to historic trends to determine the likely composition of mail-in votes, as the motivations (or in some cases requirements) for mail-in voting are significantly different than any previous election year.

Scalito said...

They claim voter suppression, but any of them with IQs higher than their body temps, know that is completely BS. Study after study have been unable to find any significant voter suppression. Voter ID laws?

Experience with voter ID laws shows that minority participation in elections INCREASES (as a percentage of the total vote) in jurisdictions immediately after the implementation of voter ID requirements. It's likely that this increase results from the fact that people, minorities in the affected jurisdictions, do in fact believe the laws are intended to suppress their vote.

So, with all due respect, while the laws do not suppress minority votes, you're wrong that no one believes the lie about them. The lie has proven to be a very effective means of juicing minority participation in elections. Unsurprisingly, people come out when they think their rights on the line.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Kevin said...
There is no reason ballots don’t have to be received and counted by Election Day.

There is no legitimate reason to be counting ballots before the polls close

Ever

Among other things, a person should be able to show up at the polling place on Election Day, show their photo ID, and vote, and have that vote count, and any mailed in ballot NOT count.

No actions that would make the above impossible should ever be allowed.

Person showing up at the polling place should be privileged above all other methods of voting, because as long as you're checking gov't issued photo ID, that's the one most likely to be valid

Greg The Class Traitor said...

J Melcher said...
Calling the race in Florida before their panhandle polls close is illegal, I think.
It was worse than that. They all repeated lied and said that polls were closed in the Panhandle, and no more voting was allowed, when there was still time to vote.

THAT was the vote suppression, and no one was punished for it. Despite the fact that they'd all been told ahead of time that the Panhandle was open an extra hour

Similarly announcing results of early voting before all mailed ballots are secure should be prohibted.
Heck with "announcing". No one shoudl be able to KNOW those numbers. Because if anyone can know them, they will be used for partisan advantage.

No counting before the polls close

stlcdr said...

If a polling place, or anointed (sic) location has not received ballots by election day, then every ballot after that point is invalid.

Why should any ballot after election day be relevant?

Rusty said...

Of course there's going to be fraud. The system was designed to be abused and abused it will be.

Gk1 said...

"One thing to notice: Democrats have shifted big time from encouraging mail in ballots to getting their people to the polls. A hint that they're plans to steal won't be as easy as they once thought..."

This, this and THIS. The problem with trying to inflate mail in voter numbers to steal an election is you don't really know what areas or county's you will need the votes the most to win. Like Detroit's 220% voter response you can't make the mail-in Biden "win" look like a banana republic exercise and have it go undetected by army's of election lawyers and poll watchers. Also guaranteed are those voters who do show up at the polls only to find out someone has already submitted a mail in ballot on their behalf that will tarnish any Biden election "victory".

I think this is all more about tarnishing a probable Trump re-election and if it destroys the american's belief in elections so be it. TDS has driven democrat's to such lengths they can't see where this will lead all of us after Trump is gone.

Yancey Ward said...

I think we will know who won by the early morning of November 4th. The only state I would worry about right that would actually matter is Arizona based on the experience of the 2018 Senate race. All the other states that might be problems are mostly going to go Biden anyway- see the Jersey guy's comment above at 9:48 above.

Here is what I will looking at on election night returns: Trump's margin in Kentucky and Indiana compared to 2016 (you will get a feel for this by about 8:30 p.m.). Trump should increase his margin in both states if he is going to win. If it decreases, then he is likely to lose. Following that, I will be looking at Virginia returns at the precinct and county levels especially. Trump will have to improve his performance in Virginia compared to 2016 given the 3rd party vote will be much lower this time. I think Trump can win Virginia, and if he does, you can call the election at that moment- I won't give a shit about PA, MI, or WI at that point.

DEEBEE said...

With more and more judges allowing postmarking by 11/3, what this techno-fraud is talking about is that on Election Day Dems have to manufacture and postmark enough votes to win close states. Trump might win quite a few of those, more than 2016, and have them flipped, by the manufactured votes.

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

"Discovered" ballots kept happening in the Washington's 2000 election between Dino Rossi (R) and Christine Gregoire (D). There was two recounts in King County and each time more ballots were discovered in a closet or somewhere. The new ballots always leaned towards Gregoire. After the second recount the governor-elect had changed from Rossi to Gregoire. Funny how that worked, isn't it?

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Mike of Snoqualmie said...
"Discovered" ballots kept happening in the Washington's 2000 election between Dino Rossi (R) and Christine Gregoire

2004, not 2000

Jim at said...

"Discovered" ballots kept happening in the Washington's 2000 election between Dino Rossi (R) and Christine Gregoire (D).

2004.

Jim at said...

The left is openly admitting they're going to cheat.

We're dupes if we don't plan on doing the same.

Fuck it and them.

rehajm said...

you will get a feel for this by about 8:30 p.m.

I'm wondering how much information legacy media will be willing to disseminate. In 2016 they were expecting a near-real-time joy fest of a coronation. In 2020 that level of elect-o-meter disclosure can only cause problems for their candidate. I wouldn't be surprised with an election night lid...

Hopefully twitter doesn't shut down the checkmarks...

Yancey Ward said...

"One thing to notice: Democrats have shifted big time from encouraging mail in ballots to getting their people to the polls. A hint that they're plans to steal won't be as easy as they once thought..."

It might be too late to change this attitude. I have written more than one comment on this blog that pointed out that the Democrats were making a tactical error in trying to drive mail-in-voting- I wrote that what they were doing was likely to lead to a catastrophic decline in actual base participation all the while that the Trump Campaign and the Republican Party were far better prepared to wage the mail-in vote than they have been in the past.

Narayanan said...

Todd said...

just maybe the dead have insights that we the living lack and that the only thing stopping the living from matching this Democrat leaning percentage is the inability for the dead to talk to us directly and explain why.
--------------==================
this is now inoperative >>> Ruth has spoken from beyond the grave.

Narayanan said...

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...
Landslide. Joe’s allies are panicking finally. A Trump landslide on Election Day will be difficult to reverse with everyone on the lookout for fraud. Trump will rack up so many states we won’t need west coast results on November 3.
----------============
2016 - I stayed up till end - hoping they would declare before Left coast ECV's

hstad said...

Blogger Amadeus 48 said...
Nobody knows what is happening, but I will be surprised if Team Trump doesn't have their own vote-by-mail operation. 9/25/20, 6:10 AM ..."

And that means what? So you don't think that the people doing the vote interception are only going to concentrate in 'Central Philly/ - LOL. No they are going for the conservative parts of PA. Vote by mail is a fraud and all Democrats-Conservatives/Republicans/Independents should only vote in person.

Jeff said...

I think Trump can win Virginia, and if he does, you can call the election at that moment
Virginia vote is dominated by the Northern Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Prince William and Loudon. All of those are now heavily Democratic. Prince William used to lean slightly Republican when I moved here 27 years ago, but not any more. Everyone around here works for some level of government or for a government contractor, and the Virginia Republican Party has expended truckloads of ammunition shooting itself in the foot for decades. When given a choice between a candidate who can win versus a fringe candidate, the Virginia GOP consistently goes for the fringe. After decades of this, the party has even managed to lose the state legislature.

RobinGoodfellow said...

“Blogger Ralph L said...
But the Dems will keep finding uncounted ballots in car trunks until they win.”

Democrats will call us conspiracy theorists, but it is true. I have seen that scenario play out before

madAsHell said...

That's the sound of battle space preparation.

The Godfather said...

Have I missed it? They've been demanding that Trump say he will cooperate with the transfer of power, but they haven't demanded that Biden and his handlers (Pelosi, et al.) agree that they will support the Trump Second Term. They didn't cooperate with the Obama-Trump transition, i.e., with a Trump First Term, so that's a legitimate question.

mockturtle said...

Yeah, it's really amazing that all newly-discovered ballots are Democrat votes. Every time. This happened in AZ, too, in 2018. Any recount or hidden cache of ballots will result in a Dem win.

Having once belonged to the Democrat Party and then the Republican Party I can say from experience that it was the Democrats who were crooked, underhanded and mendacious. Their notion of 'grass roots' representation is a joke. Their strategy and their slate are all arranged by the party bosses. Seeing the inside of the Democrat Party cured me forever of being a Democrat or even voting for one.

Yancey Ward said...

rehajm

It won't matter- I look at the state websites for vote totals down to the precinct level. What you will see on the networks is a refusal to call any state that Trump doesn't win by 10 points while every state Biden is predicted to win by the exit polls will be called the moment the polls close, but that is nothing new.

daskol said...

It might be too late to change this attitude.

Yes, it would be a delicious irony if the coordinated effort to freak people out about COVID depresses neurotic Dem turnout on Election Day, that being a significant bloc of their electorate. Hoist by their own petard.