Said Governor Cuomo, quoted in "Coronavirus Live Updates: Some States Ease Restrictions..." (NYT).
Cuomo "laid out a broad outline on Sunday for a gradual restart of the state that would allow some 'low risk' businesses upstate to reopen as soon as mid-May. He did not speculate when restrictions would be eased in New York City and surrounding suburbs. But he noted that they could not persist indefinitely."
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Frankly, you can’t do this because it’s Nazism.
I’m tired of listening to these piece of shit tyrants tell me that I’ve got to convince them that I should be released from house arrest and regain my civil liberties.
The CCP has really deeply infiltrated the Democratic Party.
The locked down peasants will revolt. No matter what the governor declares.
Flu season is over. Time to move on.
All these people who still have jobs keep couching the issue in terms of convenience or stir craziness or boredom. Or "going to Fuddruckers."
It's like they can't see the 28 million people without jobs staring them in the face.
It is starting to appear that this may have been way overblown, especially for states that aren't sh*thole ant colonies like NY, IL, and CA.
Should that turn out to be the case in a few months, there will be hell to pay. Hell. To. Pay.
Why does he want grandma to die?
All the angst and protests, for nothing. The states are going to be “opened” based on the way the cases are coming in. If they are on the decline, the sooner the states open up.
The plan should be this: Require specific sanitary and social distancing rules and everything else that the state thinks makes sense, and then enforce those rules.
There is zero reason for the governor to be deciding that a manufacturing operation can open, while my gym (where I have enough space to give everyone their own workout space 12 feet x 12 feet) must remain closed.
The governors should not be declaring that 100% of the government workforce is essential while 80% of the private sector is not.
America should be open for business. Put on a mask, and lets go to work.
Cuomo acknowledges reality. Next, he will grudgingly accept a republican’s right to exist
This is Cuomo's attempt to untie the up-state/down-state Gordian Knot.
Is it more likely now, however, that NYC will be the constituency to implore him to cut it instead?
All the angst and protests, for nothing.
So far, seven weeks of house arrest and the revocation of my most fundamental civil liberties.
Which are, of course, nothing to a CCP stooge like Inga.
Inga: "The states are going to be “opened” based on the way the cases are coming in. If they are on the decline, the sooner the states open up."
New York has 1135 deaths per million people. Hawaii has 10 deaths per million people, yet the governor of Hawaii has extended the shutdown in that state through the end of May.
The sanity issue began when we closed the entire nation because New Yorkers choose to live on top of one another. NYC would’ve been insane to shut down if the virus epicenter were in Colorado.
Forget about Inga.
She wants us all to be serfs of the CCP.
For our own good.
It's interesting, just a few days ago, anyone wanting to open things up was pretty much a murderer. Now a Democrat politician says we need to open things up and it's just common sense to do so.
The Governor should announce an economic emergency, immediately suspending regulations on at risk businesses, eliminating the need for environmental impact studies, permits for minor construction, suits based on wage & hour laws, etc.
He can do it by ukase because “crisis”. Anyone criticizing this regime should ask themselves “am I helping?”
I found this press conference very compelling. The owners of a private medical facility and testing lab (I think), discussing their take on how society to manage COVD. It is about 70 minutes in 2 parts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=share
Link did not work imbedded, so I am pasting it direct
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=share
What happens if the people collectively decide that the lockdown is over and the local police choose not to enforce whatever capricious mandates their governors have implimented? What then? Is the army called in? How many soldiers be willing to fire upon citizens?
It is the Governor’s responsibility to put the vast resources of the state to work producing Tinkertoys and the like to forestall further insanity among locked down residents of NYC. Or, he can lay it off on Trump and the feds who should have anticipated and prepared for the problem given existing levels of lunacy among resident of the area. /s
And now we hear from Governor Obvious.
"Wince said...
This is Cuomo's attempt to untie the up-state/down-state Gordian Knot."
That's true in a lot of states. It's certainly true here in Georgia. Atlanta metro and Albany, GA are still concerns, but the rest of the state could be open within the restrictions the state has put in place. Mayor Bottoms of Atlanta is screaming racism and lack of compassion, but I think Governor Kemp and his advising experts have made some pretty good decisions over the last few months to strike a balance of protection and freedom for all Georgians - not just the fascists of Atlanta metro.
Put all the east coast kids on trains going west. When they get to Kansas and Nebraska they will find farm families who will take them in, teach them farming (or at least milking) for the cost of room and board. When the war is over, the surviving kids can be sent back home.
Sanctuary Cities
So NYC is not going to shut down Central Oark or the subway system?
But wants BFE South Dakota that produces food for NUC shit down?
Where is President Ford when you need him?
Automatic_Wing: "It's interesting, just a few days ago, anyone wanting to open things up was pretty much a murderer. Now a Democrat politician says we need to open things up and it's just common sense to do so."
This is very much the Ken B outlook.
Unexpectedly.
For millennials and Gen Z, I think this crisis is going to have long-lasting negative effects regarding their impressions, desires, and choices for major Metros like NYC or Chicago etc.
- They are expensive out of all proportion to economic conditions. NYC is not a true market representing the true price of the actual goods and services available. Quite simply, it is artificially inflated by the extreme wealth of a small percentage of its residents.
- They are dirty and worse still, impossible to clean.
- A major selling point of the big cities - like NYC - has been they're larger mate-markets with significantly more young women to young men. You can more easily get laid in NYC than say Peoria. But...Gen Z isn't having sex. Americans are increasingly obese and unattractive. And a lot of them are just plain gay, so why would Susie move to NYC to scissor some strange when she can scissor Monica whose fat next door and has awesome tats? Why would she pay for more frustration in NYC?
- They are hella crowded. Filled with frustration of every kind, requiring the learning of entirely new survival skills in an unfamiliar place, while simultaneously being extremely dangerous.
- Job market. Yes, the big metros have jobs. Well...they did have jobs. Oh, you're a programmer or web-dev? Noice, but you've been at home webdeving since this whole thing started...do you genuinely need to live in the Bay in order to pay $10 for a coffee on your way into the office to code?
The major metros are - once again - propped up by slick marketing and presence of mind. They do not deserve to be the cultural or economic capitals they've been made into by an economic world that no longer exists. That world is in the past, and it doesn't exist anymore. They have become 'too big to fail'. But economically that is not a real concept. Nothing is too big to fail. And they will.
OMFG! Cuomo wants to kill everyone. Bet Meade wants to internet fight!
Seriously, it must be getting to the point where the NYS tax base has eroded to much they might have to consider cutting government worker pensions...HAHA! Seriously, I was just kidding- no way that happens...
The line among the Woke down in Atlanta is: "You want people to DIE so you can get Taco Bell!"
Yeah what I don't understand is why aren't these governors just following the Trump plan. Oh yeah that's right he doesn't have one other than to keep you people dancing and your angst level up so you'll come out and vote for him no matter what in November
Inga said
“ All the angst and protests, for nothing. The states are going to be “opened” based on the way the cases are coming in. If they are on the decline, the sooner the states open up.”
Yes. Hopefully like in Trump's plan.
The protests damaged the GOP very badly. For example Whitmer jumped over 15% in polls when it became no longer about buying seeds or paint and became about crowds with guns and confederate flags.
What the f*** Lucid, it's not like New York City is the City of God or anyting like that s*** hole country controlled by fascist corporations and a corrupt military who ravage the environment & foster the most violent slum the world has ever known.
No Howard, Trump does have guidelines. They center on test and trace. Trump did well on that.
Communicate with neighbors with morse code tapping on the walls and pipes.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/people-were-leaving-new-york-city-before-the-coronavirus-now-what-11587916800
Case in point. Linked on Drudge right now. CA, IL, and NY were already unaffordable. This is going to make them impossible. They've become entities that can only exist by squeezing you and failing that stealing other people's money. They are not sustainable and they are not workable.
@ Lucid 9:26 am
Most of NY state geographically isn't a shithole ant colony. 7.3 million NY state residents don't live anywhere near NYC and many of us wish we could be rid of it. Our population (outside NYC, LI, and Westchester) is larger than 36 U.S. states, but we'll never be free. Unfortunately, we will all be dragged down with it.
@Howard
My statements go doubly for major global metros as well. For instance Paris as an example, is a city that exists economically on tourism. However, this wasn't sustainable even before Corona. Rio? Again, sh*thole.
I believe this crisis is going to lead people, and the young, to re-evaluate their preferences for urbanization in much the same way Rome's fall caused the disintegration of urbanization in Europe for 500 years.
I know it is causing me to rethink economic decisions I'll be making for the rest of my life.
The protests damaged the GOP very badly. For example Whitmer jumped over 15% in polls when it became no longer about buying seeds or paint and became about crowds with guns and confederate flags.
And yet Whitmer eliminated the restrictions on seeds, paint, going to your own home, golf, and motor boats. After the protests.
Ken B: "The protests damaged the GOP very badly."
Hmmmm.
The protests occur and within days liberals are writing articles approving of opening up and democrat governors come out of their shells to announce plans to open up.
And that damaged the GOP.
LOL
I suspect we are going to see a tidal wave of Ken B/Inga nonsense in the coming days now that the data is what it is from across the globe and there is no where to go after you've spent months calling those concerned about the economy of being racist killers.
MayBee
Do you think she might have eliminated those stupid restrictions after being embarrassed by them? Or that more disciplined protests would have worked?
Please, become a political consultant for Justin Trudeau!
Lucid, I think that's a fair assessment. My granddaughter is 14 years old right now loves living in Boston but New York is her favorite place. I'll have to ask her what she thinks now about moving to New York for college which has always been her plan.
Yeah this monumental economic and international pandemic crisis should change everyone's focus to what really matters in life. Spend less eat less workout more spend more time with family and friends.
Lucid
Are you saying that tourism will drop even without a lockdown?? But I thought the government lockdown was the only source of disruption and woe!
MayBee: "And yet Whitmer eliminated the restrictions on seeds, paint, going to your own home, golf, and motor boats. After the protests."
MayBee hits on it quite well.
Concern Troll Ken B doesn't care about anything hurting the GOP, he is simply trying to pretend the protests weren't successful in achieving their goals....but they clearly were.
And it has been pointed out elsewhere that literally just a handful of days ago Ken B was calling people racist killers for wanting to open up the economy.....but as soon as a couple dems/libs say its okay well, Ken B's criticisms of those advocating reopening magically disappear.
Unexpectedly.
"Stay in your apartment with the three kids.' That doesn’t work."
Actually, it's counterproductive. Kids run little risk and need to help build up herd immunity. We need more cases.
"There’s a sanity equation here also that we have to take into consideration."
Wait, so shutdowns have negative health effects? Now you tell us. So, Gov. Cuomo, exactly what do you estimate the net benefit of the shutdowns to be, just in terms of "health"? And if we do a complete cost-benefit calculation, like, for real, what would the net benefit turn out to be?
Ken B: "Or that more disciplined protests would have worked?"
The protests that were held were successful.
I'm not sure your Lets Discuss Hypotheticals Instead Of What Actually Happened gambit is going to be very successful here.
Here is the plan from the discredited centers for disease control
https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/
It would be fun to read a Ken B explanation for how it is that 4 days ago opening up the economy was the philosophy of racist killers but as of yesterday and today, its just darn good thinking.
Some of those ideas are fairly lucid. You have to think in the coming years with the bug paranoia still riding high what is it that people are going to want to spend their money on and what are they going to avoid.
NYC death rate / infections I don’t think will improve much, till herd immunity is reached. And that may be pretty soon in nyc...
This Video is disturbing by a nurse practitioner:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/26/an-alarming-message-about-healthcare-and-covid-19-in-new-york-city/
Ken B said...
"The protests damaged the GOP very badly."
Ken B is concerned.
I remember the first time my kids and my sisters kids got together at my parent's lake house. All 4 were in the 6-10 age range.
The difference in behavior was profound. Not bad, just very different. My sister's kids were raised in a relatively small apartment in Munich. My kids were raised in a house in Puerto Rico.
Her kids would, by choice, play quietly in a corner. My kids were all over the place, down by the lake, out in the yard having a good time as I would expect normal kids to have.
Her kids were trained to live in an aparatment with limited outdoor access. My kids were trained to go outside if the liked. (with limits, of course)
I know if I was stuck in a small apartment for months which set of kids I would want to be with! Not mine, much as I love them. They would need to be totally retrained.
And it is not just apartments. My daugheter and SIL live in a fair sized house with a nice yard. They can walk around the neighborhood, got to a little park and so on.
My daughter is still working. My SIL not so he is taking care of the kids.
The 4 y/o girl is fine, the can entertain herself pretty well. She spends hours playing with her Barbies and Barbie house, RV, Corvette and so on. But the 2 y/o boy is very active and driving him batty. Well behaved, but very active.
SIL has been ready to go back to work for more than a couple weeks.
John Henry
The objection was that the deplorables wanted to reopen the economy right in the middle of the current peak of infection. This goes completely against the CDC plan put out by the Trump administration. I think Trump's overall philosophy is do as the Deep State recommends you do, not as I say
Dems need a face-saving out, or
it will basically go along the typical ProgLibDem pattern:
deny->delay->downplay->dismiss
...eventually:
"Lockdown? That was Trump's stupid idea. He stoked the hysteria"
Herd immunity before a vaccine is a pipe dream. Behavior modification and PPE are a good proxy for herd immunity until the vaccine is successful.
ST has told us how he is taking care of his grandkids. Wife and I are both in the house with little to do. We would love to have the grandkids over and hang out a couple days a week.
But it is illegal.
And ST is right
ENOUGH OF THIS FUCKING FASCISM/PROGRESSIVISM.
We even have to wear masks in our cars, with the windows closed. Not sure if it is law or recommendation. I'm not doing it. If I get stopped, I will please ignorance.
Let us go back to work.
The objection was that the deplorables wanted to reopen the economy right in the middle of the current peak of infection.
The "current peak of infection" and subsequent fatalities just happen to be, what.... less than 1% of that initially projected on our expert's glorious models?
The panic was ginned up the CCP/Democratic Party and its hack press to take down Trump.
The Democratic Party is basically a subsidiary of the CCP.
I think you've lost the Crying Wolf panic gambit, Howard. Everybody's on to the game.
The objection was that the deplorables wanted to reopen the economy right in the middle of the current peak of infection.
Ah, it's crazy for deplorables to want to open up Wisconsin, with under 300 deaths, but Just Common Sense for Cuomo to open up New York, which is the coronavirus epicenter for, well, pretty much the whole world.
No doubt BECAUSE SCIENCE or something.
Why aren't all the lockdown enthusiasts outraged at Cuomo's murderous plan to reopen? Is young Althouse Cohen on Facebook calling him a cold blooded killer?
No, of course not. This is different, because reasons.
Looks like JAC will be ringing up Cuomo on murder charges soon. I hope Mario has a good attorney.
A_W beat me to it. :(
It's funny to watch Howard and KenB flounder today.
“ The protests that were held were successful.”
For Whitmer, yes.
Cuomo will shortly learn that people have stopped listening. Every sky is falling model has been wrong. Every day there is a new scare angle. Sneezes go 8 ft., no they go 20 or maybe 50 The particles stay in the air for a minute, no an hour. Once on a surface it takes them 24 hours before they are no longer infectious. No, 80 hours. No a study in Bulgaria found they are viral for a month. Well the good news is that the 75 million to die has been reduced as a result of our mandates to remain sequestered until the curve is flattened. But should the curve flatten we will have to wait and see. Stay 6 feet apart. No two meters. New study says virus attaching to pollution particles in the air. Good news! Because of social distancing there is no pollution in the air. Sweet Jesus the deplorables are opening their crappy little businesses we are all going to be infected because of those selfish jackoffs. The economy is more important to those assholes than human life. We are working on a plan to reopen slowly and we will let you know when we figure which way we are headed. By the way the expression “flatten the curve” is not to be used.
re: vaccines
let's hope this test run of govt overreach
...makes us more resistant to any future 'outbreaks'
I'm glad Cuomo said it. The last thing we need is for this to become a blue team/red team issue: "I'm blue team anti-Trump. Keep it closed." "I'm red team pro-Trump. Open it up."
The chairman of Tyson foods makes the point denied but so many here: covid is a *threat*.
https://thefeed.blog/2020/04/26/feeding-the-nation-and-keeping-our-employees-healthy/
What he doesn’t blame for the problem: laws requiring Tyson to shut plants.
What he does blame for the problem: the virus.
Denialists here insist it’s only lockdown policies that disrupt the economy. Tyson Foods begs to differ.
Howard: "The objection was that the deplorables wanted to reopen the economy right in the middle of the current peak of infection."
LOLOLOLOL
Oh, the Great Rewriting of History begins in earnest!
Those advocating reopening just days ago were called racist killers by Ken B and Inga.
Just days ago.
Gee, I guess the middle of the current peak of infection was just days ago....but now, VOILA!! Its all good!
the ones bill bright, directed to his former employer, novamex with a 89 million grant from the gates foundation,
Stridency and stubbornness put one at a particular disadvantage in these times since reacting well to something like a pandemic means adaptation and flexibility, while the political angle tends to entrench people in their positions.
Ken B: "Denialists here insist it’s only lockdown policies that disrupt the economy. Tyson Foods begs to differ."
Did the Chairman of Tyson Foods call those advocating reopening the economy racist killers too like you did?
while our elite betters are home "fattening their curves"
...things are getting leaner and meaner for der Untermensch.
Or is it 'die' untermensch. As in Die, untermensch!!
I'll bet the Chairman of Tyson foods, along with all CEO's, is paying close attention to the mass of leftists and media types who are labeling anyone who disagrees with the extreme NewYork-ification lockdown of the entire nation racist killers.
@Drago
you may like this series by Brian Cates
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/04/18/the-cult-that-rewrites-history-part-1/
What are these cities now if not the tombs and sepulchres of the godless?
Yes, Ken B and Inga have developed COVID-19 linked amnesia. Inga's is worse than Ken's case, so her viral load might have been higher.
Mike K, floundering is followed by foundering.
Howard said...
Herd immunity before a vaccine is a pipe dream. Behavior modification and PPE are a good proxy for herd immunity until the vaccine is successful.
4/27/20, 10:31 AM
And if a coronavirus vaccine is a pipe dream?
Ken B said...
MayBee
Do you think she might have eliminated those stupid restrictions after being embarrassed by them?
Was she embarrassed? Her approval ratings went up!
Tyson foods owns the clintons
CBS This Morning reported on a huge urban house party in Chicago over the weekend. No masks, people crammed inside the home, sweating dancing drinking. Freedom finds a way.
Nichevo why do you hate the ingenuity of the United States of America? is it because you'll have to rely on Lefty liberal libtard elite scientist to figure out the solution to the problem?
Protests Under Coronavirus are Dangerous and Illegal... Unless They're by Lefties
Denialists here insist it’s only lockdown policies that disrupt the economy. Tyson Foods begs to differ.
Flounder, flounder
Denialists here insist it’s only lockdown policies that disrupt the economy. Tyson Foods begs to differ.
Flounder, flounder
The Concern Troll uses the word "only" because it is a liar.
Look at all its comments and note the overuse.
It's a tell.
The flaming strawmen are a danger for glowball warmening.
Think of the planet, Ken B!!!!!11!1!!!! eleventy
Imagine a world in which one is arguing the government imposed lockdowns were unnecessary because people were already taking appropriate measures to protect themselves and then encountering the fabrication that any of us have said it is 'ONLY' the government imposed shutdowns that are the problem.
The rest of us were further arguing that individual action would be enough. And individuals would make decisions on how to return to work. Imagine a world without the fear mongering. Silly cvnts.
By the end of Summer, when it is clear there is no V-shaped recovery, just a long slog like the Great Recession's aftermath, the Ingas and the Kens will be telling us that they never advocated any national lockdown at all- just targeted ones. By next year, it will be that they never advocated lockdowns at all. You already see people trying to memory-hole the million dead Americans projections that were supposed to occur with stronger mitigation than we actually took.
As for Cuomo here- he has probably gotten a look at tax revenue projections based on real time data now, and realizes that he can't continue to employ the workers he has without at least trying to get some stabilization in receipts ASAP. Every other state that is locked down is in the exact same position, as are many cities, counties, etal. There are no free lunches or tooth fairies.
The Honeymooners, All in the Family, Seinfeld, Mad About You, and Friends could have done a lot with the shut-down.
"You already see people trying to memory-hole the million dead Americans projections that were supposed to occur with stronger mitigation than we actually took."
-- I vaguely remember warning at the start that, while I thought some precautions were warranted, without a much more realistic assessment, people weren't going to get on board, or worse, if things didn't look like the estimates were going to turn out right, the next time something happens, people will be even less likely to listen.
Howard said...Nichevo why do you hate the ingenuity of the United States of America? is it because you'll have to rely on Lefty liberal libtard elite scientist to figure out the solution to the problem?
You're asserting that personal politics played a role in the greatness of American science in the past? Requiring a lefty litmus test for science faculty sounds pretty fucking Soviet or even Nazi. Take your pick. May God preserve the memory of Frank Albert Cotton!
Yancey
I never did advocate a national lockdown. Nor has there been one. How many times do I have to explain the US constitution to Americans? It is the states ordering lockdowns.
I did say I support some state lockdowns and not others, and some aspects of some and not others. But fantasize away, neither I nor facts will stop you. Nor will Federalist 51 evidently.
Of course there will be no V recovery. The virus has exacted a high price and will continue to. As I posted weeks ago, we are going to be poorer than we were, and for several years. Plus we need to invest to thicken the supply chain, and move away from the lowest cost producer in so many areas. Distancing reduces efficiency too.
But like with the Spanish Flu we will eventually recover.
MayBee: "Was she embarrassed? Her approval ratings went up!"
Sometimes Ken B fails to keep track of his talking points.
Howard said...
Nichevo why do you hate the ingenuity of the United States of America? is it because you'll have to rely on Lefty liberal libtard elite scientist to figure out the solution to the problem?
4/27/20, 11:45 AM
So, how's that HIV vaccine working out for you? Thank heaven for those lefty liberal libtard elite scientists who cured AIDS! Besides, what if PDT or a Trump voter owned the right stock and gained by it? Surely that can't be allowed to happen.
No, it's just on the hole that high achievement and intelligence skews heavily to the left while racism and obesity skews right. Coincidence?
To Howard at 12:13.
Intelligence and overachievement skews left. Yes. That totally explains why from the 30a to the 60s the “Smart ones” said Communism was the future and then tried to make everyone into the new “Soviet Man”. No coincidence at all that the university “elite” pushed this crap ( and still so as “privilege”.
I’d be really careful calling the majority of the black “racists by association” too. Fat isn’t funny and it’s the main reason ( with its associated morbidities) that the “community of color” has been so hard hit.
Just remember by definition that half the population is “below average intelligence” by definition. And your main voting bloc seems to share that space pretty well.
Howard said...
No, it's just on the hole that high achievement and intelligence skews heavily to the left while racism and obesity skews right. Coincidence?
Exhibit 1: LaKesiha.
Ken B said...
Of course there will be no V recovery. The virus has exacted a high price and will continue to.
Stock market is looking more V-like. It's not the economy but it's a real-time proxy for predictions 6 months from now.
Also, the REACTION TO the virus has exacted a high price and will continue to.
You guys are now behind the curve.
We’ve just moved on to the next panic: The food supply chain is breaking!
We’re all gonna die! We’re all gonna die!
Somber call this morning as we see more teams being let go or furloughed. I do office relocations and deal with many moving companies who have now let go at least 50% of their staff with no clear idea when they will be called back this year. Nice job! Sure hope it was fucking worth it.
"Sure hope it was fucking worth it."
-- I've seen at least one article being passed around claiming that two months of the Corona virus has already killed more than all the years of Vietnam combined. I have no idea how to determine these numbers; does this include people like the person who died of a drug overdose who had the virus? The numbers right now are all sorts of impossible to figure out.
BarrySanders,
This is where we are at.
Howard: "No, it's just on the hole that high achievement and intelligence skews heavily to the left while racism and obesity skews right. Coincidence?"
Okay, so lets roll with this for a moment.
Howard is arguing African-Americans and Hispanics skew right.
I find this argument fascinating and I would like Howard to elaborate.
Howard?
"I've seen at least one article being passed around claiming that two months of the Corona virus has already killed more than all the years of Vietnam combined" and those people would have died with or without shelter in place and complete shutdown. Covid-19 has not killed more than a regular flu season. So this is the new normal now? Economic shut down during flu season?
I see a meme going around that the V-shaped recovery is assured because nothing has been destroyed- all the restaurants, factories, etal. are still there just waiting to restart and pick up where they left off. I am just gobsmacked by this attitude- all the same was true in 2007-2009- nothing was destroyed, and we didn't even have pandemic added to the burden.
The risk is that new cases start up again, and we panic once more and shut everything down. We have one chance, now, to get the economy going again before a true calamity sets in, and I am not convinced any longer we have the courage to do what is necessary. And even with this restart being a success, we are in for at least as slow a recovery as the one from 2009 forward. A lost decade will now become two.
I have just been told that San Francisco has decided to extend shelter in place till the end of May. Good grief! Why?!? It would be fine if they were going to use the time to relocate homeless schizophrenics and heroin addicts and scrape the poop off the sidewalks but I truly doubt it. What a waste.
"Covid-19 has not killed more than a regular flu season. So this is the new normal now? Economic shut down during flu season?"
-- That's part of what I don't know; how can we tell this? I'm only seeing death reports, not anyone doing the morbid but necessary task of marking excess deaths or where Covid was the cause and not just present at the death.
And even with this restart being a success, we are in for at least as slow a recovery as the one from 2009 forward. A lost decade will now become two.
What's the basis for this dire prediction about a lost decade?
We had a global credit crunch in 2007-2008: credit seized up. That may happen to us now, but it has not yet. We've got lost revenue, investment that was allocated but not spent, reduced tax revenues, etc. but we haven't got the same systemic problem with our capital markets that arose in summer 2007 and ultimately precipitated the financially driven crisis.
Daskol, we are taking exactly the same steps we took in 2008-2009. It took almost a decade to get unemployment back to where it was in the Summer of 2007. It will take at least a decade to get it back to where it was in January of this year. In other words, the situation now is far more dire than it was in early 2009. Ken is right about one thing- the pandemic did a lot of economic damage that won't be fixed easily, but the problem is that we were like a doctor treating a guy with severed leg- to try to save him we removed the other one as a precaution.
If we can get to August and get unemployment under 12%, I will consider that a success given how stupidly we have acted, but I am not terribly optimistic we can reach even this goal.
I have no idea what to expect, but am curious about the strong sense of a similarly long slog towards recovery given how different the conditions are this time.
Economic momentum is an actual thing.
"Economic momentum is an actual thing."
-- Recovery Summer, here we come!
Yancey-
The market doesn't makes sense to me either. I don't think it is accurately pricing in the damage that the forced shut down has caused and will continue to cause. The fact that it has bounced back as much as it has, which if you look at the 6 month chart it is looking V-ish, though climbing less steeply than the fall. Wall Street seems oblivious yet they are right in the center of this. They know more than I do, but for now, with investments, I am being like Althouse and cowering in place with money market funds.
I believe employers will be very cautious in re-hiring because they do not know what to expect. Service professionals who have so far been relatively unaffected will likely be getting hit in the coming months. This will have a domino effect on a lot of businesses who so far have felt none of the pain. I am predicting the real rebound (not the market) will be slow, and the market will react after that becomes apparent. We shall see.
Tons of repos, foreclosures, unpaid student loans, bad credit debt, etc. are coming. Bankruptcy practitioners and pensioners not hardest hit.
"I believe employers will be very cautious in re-hiring because they do not know what to expect."
-- Another issue: After sending a bunch of people to work from home, a lot of companies are learning how bloated they were. The government sector doesn't need to worry about bloat, and in a few months, any government workers who couldn't work will probably get back pay, given previous instances where this has happened, but in the private sector, why replace some of the people you let go when you realize that they weren't adding any real value?
"I have no idea what to expect, but am curious about the strong sense of a similarly long slog towards recovery given how different the conditions are this time."
The conditions now are worse than what we faced in 2008/2009- far worse. This isn't even debatable at this point, Daskol. At the very depths of the Great Recession, the economy never shrank by even 3% yoy- only 2009 shrank by 2.5%. We are looking at minus 20-30 percent just for the 2nd quarter alone. If we can keep the damage to -15% for the entire year, I would consider it a miracle, but the reality is that we probably won't recover in real dollars the GDP of 2019 until at least 2022.
It is the depth of the contraction that does most of the damage- it disrupts all the patterns of trade to a degree that takes multiple amounts of time to adjust to. The depth of this one has no precedent.
I don't know. This was an artificial demand crisis, and a historically unique event. We've never seen the likes of it. There will obviously be lasting impact on important sectors of the economy, but I find it difficult to imagine what the recovery will look like or what shape it might take. I believe that the nature of the bailouts in 2009 distorted the shape of the recovery, and that economic growth was retarded by so much else that govt was doing in the intervening years, from Obamacare to other regulatory drag placed on the economy. If we don't have that to worry about, new business formation could conceivably rather quickly replace a lot of the businesses lost to the shutdown. Rather than creative ideas about how to perpetuate the shutdown in the name of Green New Deal, I'd like to see creative thought around repositioning the burden of much of that bad debt to stakeholders who've had it easy until now: let universities eat some of the student loans, let companies re-organize under bankruptcy protection instead of getting bailouts, etc. It's a brave new world.
Yancey Ward: "The conditions now are worse than what we faced in 2008/2009- far worse. This isn't even debatable at this point,..."
How can that be when just days ago Ken B was arguing passionately that the nationwide lockdown and shuttering of businesses had helped us to AVOID an economic collapse?
I mean, what changed in just 5 or 6 days to make Ken B wrong on a galactic scale?
Under the assumption that people will return to the gym, to restaurants and nail salons and most such things rather quickly, the question is how much demand was destroyed vs. how much of it was suppressed and remains pent up. The worst thing about the recovery from 2009 from a productivity perspective was the decline in labor force participation. We've had half a decade of increasing labor force participation, so I don't know if we're actually worse off now than we were in the depths of the financial crisis. Much of the shutdown damage could be relatively fleeting, and the shape of the recovery will be based on what the pandemic itself has done to distort or transform our economic activity going forward. That's under the assumption that we still more or less want to spend our time and money the same ways we have been.
Matt--
Bloated in both personnel and office space. Who needs expensive commercial office space, with all of the equipment and utility costs, parking costs, etc. when a core group can stay home and still produce? The business gets to avoid or externalize many of those commercial office space costs. Companies will have to honor existing leases, but renewals will be tough. Many may downsize if they keep downtown office space.
Personally, I dropped the monthly parking space was only using 10-12 days a month before covid season. Between a second office in the sticks that has plenty of parking, home office work, and client/courthouse work, it was excessive to pay a monthly fee for less than 1/2 the days. I can save by paying the daily fee whenever I go in. The parking company must be losing tenants because they had a canned response with a free two-week offer to stay on. No thanks.
A month ago we had early numbers from affected countries.
I predicted from the start that COVID-19 was widespread earlier than was being reported and that the death rate would be lower than reported.
Ken B said we were at the bottom of an "exponential curve."
It would have been fine if Ken B was just wrong. But Ken B also lied about what other people said and misrepresented other people's positions.
I am going to rub it in Ken.
You are a piece of shit. You are wrong. You are stupid. You are a fascist.
You are in the Chuck category.
Until you get banned.
That said, I don't know how useful a signal the stock market is at this point since we've gotten pretty good at re-inflating asset prices and some of the stock market recovery may be a reflection of that "govt put" that we trust to be both available and reasonably effective.
Achilles, if you weren't wrong at some point about the coronavirus, you're doing it wrong. I'm not defending the Ken B/Inga alliance, but this is a completely strange new situation in important respects: you get things wrong, you notice, you adapt.
BarrySanders20 said...
Tons of repos, foreclosures, unpaid student loans, bad credit debt, etc. are coming. Bankruptcy practitioners and pensioners not hardest hit.
There is about to be a massive renegotiation.
Civil order is going to break down. People who owned debt are going to lose.
A lot of people are not going to pay mortgages or student loans and once something like that starts there is a cascade. Nobody wants to be the only sucker paying property taxes or their mortgage.
It would be really sad to watch our retirement and pension systems collapse.
But it would also be justice. We all know who made the loudest calls to shut the economy down.
daskol said...
Achilles, if you weren't wrong at some point about the coronavirus, you're doing it wrong. I'm not defending the Ken B/Inga alliance, but this is a completely strange new situation in important respects: you get things wrong, you notice, you adapt.
True.
But some people were wrong and they were fascists.
This combination cannot be tolerated.
Excess deaths, which several have indicated they think the right metric to use (I agree):
https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/U-S-deaths-soared-in-early-weeks-of-pandemic-15228817.php
I posted earlier excess deaths in Europe. The official covid tally undercounts.
Ken B: "Or that more disciplined protests would have worked?"
A (self-proclaimed) libertarian said this.
There is about to be a massive renegotiation.
There ought to be, just as there ought to have been one in 2009: bailing out a company means bailing out its managers and stockholders, not just preserving it as an operating entity. I don't get the sense that Trump is interested in doing that, although the market's behavior suggests that a lot of investors don't anticipate increased risk for equity holders. If we can't even let equity holders take a hit, what are the chances that there's a significant enough renegotiation that it hurts debt holders? Also a renegotiation on the terms you're suggesting, people simply not paying back their debt and tax burden, would dissolve our economy and society very rapidly. But maybe there's smaller scale renegotiation that can take place and not burn our house down.
It will be interesting to see how the forgiveness of PPP money proceeds. It would be great to place some of the student debt risk and burden, at least on a go-forward basis, on the universities who've ratcheted up tuition to capture that debt-fueled income stream. Tax burdens will still be due, but they will be greatly diminished as a result of diminished economic activity, which may require the renegotiation of benefits for many former govt employees at all levels. It is certainly true that the private sector has absorbed the most pain and in any renegotiation some of that pain will have to be shifted not just to the public sector (e.g. taxpayers) but to public sector workers. But things would have to get real bad for any such thing to happen.
"And even with this restart being a success, we are in for at least as slow a recovery as the one from 2009 forward."
IDK, remember who would be president for the next 8 years.
From the article: "The excess deaths are not necessarily attributable directly to covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus."
So... yeah. Not helpful to figuring much out.
"The count is also affected by increases or decreases in other categories of deaths, such as suicides, homicides and motor vehicle accidents."
-- So, for example, it is likely that the murder-suicide caused by the guy who was unemployed (and also, probably crazy) might account for two of those excess deaths in the tally. Again: This isn't an accurate accounting.
"The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic."
-- Does this also take into account that, apparently, hundreds of thousands more people have been exposed and infected than originally thought (if not nearly a million?)
Look, I'm not one of those people saying, "JUST THE FLU BRO," but this article seems to have jumped ahead of the actual people looking at the data. Then you have this sentence: "The figure has political implications for President Donald Trump, who initially played down the threat of the virus and whose administration failed to ramp up covid-19 testing quickly, allowing the virus to spread undetected for weeks." Which seems odd, given Trump tried to close travel to China, and during the time he was saying it wouldn't be as bad as people were saying, other politicians were also encouraging people to go out on the town, and that testing was hobbled due to policies that existed pre-Trump. Trump didn't do things perfectly, but that sentence seems more interested in manipulating your opinion of the political implications for Trump rather than an honest assessment of where he failed (mainly, he failed by letting the bureaucracy run without him shaking it up for as long as he did, because as usual, the president had too much faith in his government bureaucrats, a problem we've seen repeated for generations.)
"Some of Trump's defenders have claimed that covid-19 death figures are inflated because they may include people who died with the disease but not of it."
-- Ok. Who says that? What defenders? What reasons do they claim this? I know of at least one COVID death that I think shouldn't be counted (the story of the drug addict who OD'ed while infected), so while I don't think there is massive over counting, I think that assuming all 50,000 claimed deaths are caused directly by the disease is actually a reasonable stance to take without further data.
"The newly added deaths were almost equally split between cases that were confirmed through lab testing and cases that were deemed "probable" covid-19 deaths based only on symptoms and exposure." <-- This will bother me, because, frankly, I don't trust people to report on this. "Probable" exposure includes nearly every person in New York City at this point, and using that, nearly every person who dies of natural causes could get added to the total. If all you have is "they were exposed and had breathing problems when they died," that's not a death you can attribute to the virus. If "symptoms and exposure" is enough, then the data is inherently flawed.
We need a lot more, and better, data -- and I'm worried that we're never going to get it.
It is not intended to perfectly capture the number of deaths from COVID-19, but I wouldn't dismiss evidence of excess deaths: that's a lot harder to get wrong or to mislead about than most things we're trying to measure.
Apparently Evers is considering extending the lockdown through the summer.
daskol said...
It is not intended to perfectly capture the number of deaths from COVID-19, but I wouldn't dismiss evidence of excess deaths: that's a lot harder to get wrong or to mislead about than most things we're trying to measure.
———-
Exactly. And one of the reasons several here identified it as the most important metric. (As I said, I agree with that.)
Now that it cuts against the denialists I wonder how many will suddenly disavow it.
Let's not use deliberately pejorative phrases like "Denialists," which is specifically used to conjure up an association with Holocaust deniers for people who want to wait for better, more complete data, before determining what the facts were.
Meanwhile the idiots in the Bay Area extend it to the end of May minimum. (Which means all of summer and why not through 2021)
F them
"Let's not use deliberately pejorative phrases like "Denialists," Denialist is the jarbon of a moby and should be treated as such. As Ken B's position of battening down the hatches until 2021 become untenable it will be interesting if he's capable of showing any humility.
“Niggardly” is not a racial slur, Matt Sablan.
Blogger Matt Sablan said..."Let's not use deliberately pejorative phrases like "Denialists," which is specifically used to conjure up an association with Holocaust deniers…"
You're right, Matt.
Denialist in needlessly inflammatory and Ken B knows damn well. Many of us have been skeptical of the dire predictions since the beginning of April. If he was arguing in good faith he would recognize that but instead he clogs the thread with pre-programmed panic porn. I just roll by like the other trolls but sometimes you just have to observe the obvious.
In other news, the dogs bark and the caravan moves on. SoCal beaches packed as scolds and snitches watch in disbelief. Gee, I wonder how many of these "hillbillies" will die of Covid-19?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/us/southern-california-beaches-coronavirus-heat/index.html
Correct. But denialist is not the same word, and it has taken on a very specific connotation. You don't call someone a "denialist" when they think the Laffer Curve is a fallacy or that the minimum wage doesn't impact employment numbers; denialist is a term that is only deployed against people who you are trying to dismiss, specifically because it has a connotation associated with Holocaust Denial. Now, you may not have known that, and if so, that's OK. Mistakes are made.
Matt
“Holocaust denier” is the phrase you mean, right? Denialist is not a part of that phrase.
"“Holocaust denier” is the phrase you mean, right? Denialist is not a part of that phrase."
And this demonstrates why he's not worth talking to, Matt.
No; denialist is. You may not be familiar with the term as it is commonly used now. If you say, "So-and-so is a denialist," no one asks what it is they are denying. It is either the Holocaust, or in some cases, Global Warming (in one fashion or another). I understand if you say "well, I don't mean it that way," but understand, that if you insist on using a word you know has a deeply, intentionally offensive meaning, that's entirely on you.
Ken B said...
Matt
“Holocaust denier” is the phrase you mean, right? Denialist is not a part of that phrase.
4/27/20, 3:35 PM
It's fine that you didn't understand this, because you are a foreigner. Now it has been explained to you.
Your constant use of the word “denier,” Ken is the proof that you’re not operating in good faith and that you’re an asshole.
See ST, I have never used that word. I use a perfectly apt word, denialist.
What other words do you object to? Denizen? Denigrate? Denim? Dentist?
Oh Bullshit. Use of the term "denialist" or "____ denier" is an attempt to equate skepticism about a contemporary scientific theory (actually more frequently it's a dispute over a specific public policy response to said theory) with denial that the Holocaust happened. It's a vile practice. Its end result is to minimize the Holocaust. Why are you lying about this? Who do you think you're fooling?
Matt
As well, you talk about people supposedly waiting for evidence. We have few of those here, and none whom I call denialist. The denialists are quite certain, the virus is just a mild flu they say, or was never a threat, or didn’t kill that many, and wasn’t affected by the distancing. Oh, they are quite certain indeed. We aren’t talking skeptics here.
Ken: People are trying to explain that you are actually saying something offensive.
You didn't know; no harm done. You can tell that denialist has an undoubtedly negative and offensive connotation by thinking about it. You don't call people who disbelieve in the second shooter on the grassy knoll denialists, right? Or people who don't believe in Big Foot? Or people who deny that 9/11 was an inside job?
Because those people are denying things that are right to be denied or disagreed with.
Though, judging by your last response, you intend to be disrespectful with the term, and it is now like when a man uses a racial slur and says, "I don't call all X's Y, but when one acts like a Y, I'll call them a Y." Your object was to be offensive, so, I guess I'm done trying to help.
In case you delete it, I'll paste your post here: "As well, you talk about people supposedly waiting for evidence. We have few of those here, and none whom I call denialist. The denialists are quite certain, the virus is just a mild flu they say, or was never a threat, or didn’t kill that many, and wasn’t affected by the distancing. Oh, they are quite certain indeed. We aren’t talking skeptics here."
Ken B said...
Excess deaths, which several have indicated they think the right metric to use (I agree):
https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/U-S-deaths-soared-in-early-weeks-of-pandemic-15228817.php
I posted earlier excess deaths in Europe. The official covid tally undercounts.
Remember this lying piece of shit was predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths.
His use of the term denialist is demonstrative. He cannot discuss this in good faith because he has been wrong about everything.
Millions of people have had Coronavirus already in the US. The numbers make that crystal clear. China lied about this for Months. Open borders made us vulnerable.
And we knew early on exactly which groups were susceptible. The Diamond Princess showed us exactly what is happening now would happen everywhere.
We shut down schools and restaurants.
We kept grocery stores and hospitals open to all. Then we shut down elective surgeries and we are now dealing with that fallout.
This was fucking stupid. Allowing idiot State Bureaucrats to decide how to fight this disease was stupid.
Panicky sheep like Ken B were stupid. Specifically people like Ken were purely evil in their attacks on people who were correct about this.
Even now Ken B cannot be honest about what we are saying.
Ken B is just as dishonest and inflammatory as Chuck.
Matt Sablan said...
Though, judging by your last response, you intend to be disrespectful with the term, and it is now like when a man uses a racial slur and says, "I don't call all X's Y, but when one acts like a Y, I'll call them a Y." Your object was to be offensive, so, I guess I'm done trying to help.
You are new to this subject.
Ken B consistently misrepresents what other people say. He consistently posts in bad faith.
He has been a piece of shit from the start.
Matt: and here I thought cunt, liar, racist fopdoodle, moby, fascist, nazi, Karen, snitch, alarmist, idiot, and several other common terms in these pages were “saying something offensive.” Live and learn!
I mean, there's no confusion on those terms, so I didn't think I had to clarify. You've made it clear though: You had no intention of being any less insulting than the people using those terms, except you hoped to be able to hide it better.
Maybe quit being a liar and nobody will notice your lies.
Maybe don't lie and nobody will notice your lies to call you a liar.
That's a plan that could work.
Matt Sablan
Civility bullshit.
When Cuomo admits what Evers can't.
I wonder what the investigation into the 5 Milwaukee family members killed by their own will reveal.
Whatevs.
For example, when you lie about the position of people who think the government lockdowns were not productive and actively harmful but that people taking personal control of their own likelihood of exposure... See? Now that is the kind of lying that reveals you to be a cvnt.
No, see. Civility bullshit is when you try to use pretend civility to disguise an attempt to be uncivil. Calling someone a dirty name is the opposite; that's being aggressive. Acting like you don't know denialist is offensive, only to reveal you understand the difference between calling someone a skeptic and a denier *is* civlity bullshit.
I'm sympathetic that some people get ganged up on here; I also know from watching that the vast majority of the people who gang up on and get ganged up on give as well as they get, so I see no reason to get between them. I thought you honestly were confused why people were taking offense to your tone, and tried to help. Further discussion proved that they were right that you were being disingenuous, and I was wrong.
“Ken B consistently misrepresents what other people say. He consistently posts in bad faith.”
Achilles dresses up like Karen and parades around the Althouse comments sections denouncing the “bad faith commenters”.
Matt
Check Althouse's civility bullshit tag. In these parts “civility bullshit” refers to the proposition that all calls for civility are bullshit. They are calls for only the other side to comply. Like yours was.
Living in Sonoma I am seeing some glimmer of sanity as the mayors and county health agency are looking at what they can open that is not in contradiction to little lord Fauntleroy Newsom's shelter in place decree. Parks, construction and food processing plants and even some limited open air food places will be freed (if I can believe the rumors. You see we don't have cushy government jobs and need to get back to work. Once bay area tech workers get furloughed and salaries slashed, they will also come to the same conclusion.
Russian Collusion Truther Inga: "Achilles dresses up like Karen and parades around the Althouse comments sections denouncing the “bad faith commenters”."
It is perfectly fair to label any poster who still claims Carter Page is a russian spy and Brett Kavanaugh is a rapist a "bad faith commenter".
I deny a great deal of what I've heard about coronavirus. I accept some stuff, and sometimes I wind up denying that. Sometimes I even accept what I once denied. I hate it when that happens.
I see the Ken B/Inga duo are still in business.
Inga is calling other commenters Karens. Isn't that rich.
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