April 9, 2020

When first case of coronavirus appeared in NYC — a woman who'd flown in from Iran (via Qatar) — Gov. Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio "promised that health investigators would track down every person on the woman’s flight. But no one did."

Writes J. David Goodman in "How Delays and Unheeded Warnings Hindered New York’s Virus Fight/The federal response was chaotic. Even so, the state’s and city’s own initial efforts failed to keep pace with the outbreak, The Times found" (NYT).
A day later, a lawyer from New Rochelle, a New York City suburb, tested positive for the virus — an alarming sign because he had not traveled to any affected country, suggesting community spread was already taking place.

Although city investigators had traced the lawyer’s whereabouts and connections to the most crowded corridors of Manhattan, the state’s efforts focused on the suburb, not the city, and Mr. de Blasio urged the public not to worry. “We’ll tell you the second we think you should change your behavior,” the mayor said on March 5.

For many days after the first positive test, as the coronavirus silently spread throughout the New York region, Mr. Cuomo, Mr. de Blasio and their top aides projected an unswerving confidence that the outbreak would be readily contained.

There would be cases, they repeatedly said, but New York’s hospitals were some of the best in the world. Plans were in place. Responses had been rehearsed during “tabletop” exercises. After all, the city had been here before — Ebola, Zika, the H1N1 virus, even Sept. 11.

“Excuse our arrogance as New Yorkers — I speak for the mayor also on this one — we think we have the best health care system on the planet right here in New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on March 2. “So, when you’re saying, what happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”
New York City is not as bad. It's the worst.

121 comments:

Rusty said...

Which just goes to show that oiliticians are not only morons but dangerous as well. Only a leftist would believe anything they say.

AllenS said...

Here is an article that everyone needs to read. Something that I've suspected since this virus crap started --

LINK TEXT

New York City is more than likely to be doing the same thing.

Big Mike said...

When you mix hubris with laziness and bureaucratic inertia, the results are apt to be very toxic.

Considering how much information one has to give an airline in order to be allowed to fly internationally, positively identifying everyone on the flight should be a matter of hours, tracing them a matter of a couple days, tops.

BUMBLE BEE said...

New York, the world's #1 terrorist target, had no masks, ventilators and no plans for biological weapons. Why... democrats. No wonder the "city never sleeps". Has Trump killed a baby formula factory in retaliation?

tim in vermont said...

There is a scene in The Great Gatsby where Nick goes into Gatsby’s library and notes that Gatsby hadn’t gone “the full Bulasky” in his charade because though the library was full of books, none of the pages had been cut. Bulasky (sp?) was a producer who was famous in his productions for seeing to every detail, however minor. Well, whoever is running this scam or hoax or ruse to make it look like this is really serious is going all out, not leaving the tiniest detail to chance.

It turns out, as their part in the charade, hospitals are turning out all patients but Wuhan and cancer care so they can cash in on the gold mine of reimbursements at Medicare rates! Not only that, but they are totally stressing out their employees as a fiendish aspect of their evil plot. One of my friends’ daughters is a doctor working for NYC and she calls her mother just to cry. I have another friend I have known for 40 years who works in a hospital in Florida and he extremely upset about the deaths they are seeing, not just old people, but 30 and 40 year olds according to him, maybe he is lying. IDK. His wife says she has never seen him like this.

But I tell them to take heart, commenters on the internet have assured me that it’s just the flu.

stevew said...

Mayors and governors and other senior public office holders are not elected for their crisis management skills. They are elected for their political skill, their ability to oversee an executive government bureaucracy, and to work on changes to government activity and policy. And there is a long list of other non-crisis management attributes that individual voters consider.

As this article points out, the crisis forced these guys to choose between protecting their political position and making an honest, realistic assessment of the risk of the virus. They chose the former.

If only Trump had taken the threat from the virus seriously and acted sooner then Cuomo and DeBlasio would have too. /s

rhhardin said...

With crowding the reinfection rate is huge, which guarantees fast exponential growth if it's contageous that way.

pious agnostic said...

So politicians said something they thought the voters wanted to hear and then didn't act upon it?

Quelle surprise!

Jeff Brokaw said...

In other words, living in a more rural or exurban setting, with more space around you, does have some big advantages, as it turns out.

Just confirming what a lot of us already knew.

exhelodrvr1 said...

Somewhat related - reporting potentially non-COVID deaths as COVID:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/how-honest-is-the-covid-fatality-count.php

Kay said...

Interesting.... I had heard elsewhere that the first cases came in from Seattle.

Marcus Bressler said...

So people don't cry when patients and loved ones die of.....the flu?

THEOLDMAN

“Any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee.”

tim in vermont said...

BTW, my friend’s daughter says that Chloroquinine works.

iowan2 said...

This lie about President Trump hindering, slowing, obstructing the response to the WuFlu is pissing me off. This is just like the lie about President Trump conspiring with Russia.
There is ZERO evidence, President Trump refused, or slow walked any recommendations. Zero. I keep asking for those specific actions to prove the smear, but I get nothing.

tim in vermont said...

"So people don't cry when patients and loved ones die of.....the flu?”

Not doctors about their patients, usually.

Sydney said...

Who is in charge of the state and city health departments there? They should have been advising those politicians of the potential for trouble back in January or February. Did their advice get ignored, or do they have really bad public health officials there?

Heartless Aztec said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tim in vermont said...

Before anybody posts that bit from Reason, remember that the tests were done where Telluride is in Colorado, and the highest county in the country for cases per hundred thousand was a jet setter ski resort county in Idaho.

Like Howard says, it’s a jet setter’s malady, at least to start.

I suppose that my doctor friend could be in on the ruse, and her medical training could be failing her, and maybe she can’t tell Wuhan from the regular flu, even though the lab can. I mean, knowing her, you wouldn’t think it, she seems to be one of those severely honest people to me, but maybe that’s all part of it.

Heartless Aztec said...

About 100 people have died of Covid19 in Florida. Mostly elderly persons with underlying symptoms. Those unfortunate deaths approach the number of elderly pedestrians killed while crossing the street during any random week in Florida. I exaggerate. But not much.

4/9/20, 6:48 AM

Heartless Aztec said...

Addendum: I under exaggerated. Last year 6,950 pedestrians died in Florida while crossing the street.

tim in vermont said...

She also said that half the subway is shut down due to lack of employees, making the other half more crowded than ever.

tim in vermont said...

I used to be against war, but then I found out that cancer kills more people, so I guess I was wrong.

RMc said...

The federal response was chaotic. Even so, the state’s and city’s own initial efforts failed to keep pace with the outbreak, The Times found.

Must be comforting for the NYT readership to see that, no matter how bad NY and NYC are, Orange Man is worse.

tim in vermont said...

Out of the millions of ash trees in my county, no more than a couple hundred have ash borers. Far more of them are cut down for firewood every year. So I am going to stop worrying about my yard, and abandon my plans to deal with the thirty or so on my lot.

Bob Boyd said...

De Blasio's deadly fumbling - it's not just for groundhogs anymore.

David Begley said...

Will Chris Cuomo or Tim Russert ask the Governor of New York and the Mayor of NYC if they have blood on their hands?

gilbar said...

Those unfortunate deaths approach the number of elderly pedestrians killed while crossing the street during any random week

how IS overall morality comparing to normal?
I ASSUME traffic deaths are WAY down?
I ASSUME that flu and other contagious diseases are WAY down?
how many people died in america last month?

Of course, to the folks that are in favor of the lockdowns; that's a FEATURE, not a Flaw

tim in vermont said...

De Blasio is everything they blame Trump for.

John Borell said...

There are many good things about NYC, which also make it the worst.

Fun place to visit, a terrible place to live.

We visited there Jan. 31 to Feb. 2; had a great time then flew back to our quiet suburb in NW Ohio, where we are pretty quietly riding this out.

I cannot imagine being trapped in that virus cesspool right now.

Oh, and of course, the response of Cuomo and DeBlasio is all Trump's fault. For reasons.

iowan2 said...

Addendum: I under exaggerated. Last year 6,950 pedestrians died in Florida while crossing the street.

You omitted, intentionally I'm sure, the racial component in that seeming innocuous statistic.
It's like you deny Jim Crow ever happened./s

Lurker21 said...

‘See!’ he cried triumphantly. ‘It’s a bona fide piece of printed matter. It fooled me. This fella’s a regular Belasco. It’s a triumph. What thoroughness! What realism! Knew when to stop too—didn’t cut the pages. But what do you want? What do you expect?’

David Belasco was a famous producer, impresario, writer, director. There is still a theater named after him in New York. Currently showing "Girl from the North Country" with music from the songs of ... wait for it ... Bob Dylan. Maybe we should all go when this cruel war is over, and maybe somebody could get Woody to tag along - at six feet distance.

I know it's a typo, but "oiliticians" is pretty good. Are they especially sleazy politicians or just those with ties to Big Petroleum?

tim in vermont said...

I don’t mind the opposition to lockdowns. But if you are dishonest about it, claiming that lifting them will not kill anybody who wouldn’t have died anyway, well, I just have to assume that you are either completely uncaring about massive numbers of early deaths, or not that clear of a thinker all the while indulging the fantasy that you are the clear sighted one.

For instance, Singapore lifted their lockdown and soon was forced to clamp down on it again. Why is that? Why is the Wuhan death count in Sweden, the model for right wingers, so much higher than the other countries surrounding it? Is it because they wan the Medicare funding too?

Maybe Sweden will burn through it faster and have fewer deaths overall. There is a case to be made, supported by the math, but to pretend that the price to be paid is not that high is stupid.

Browndog said...

Liberals want to pretend they spent Jan-Feb sounding the alarm, when in fact January was Funpeachment month that bled into February.

Oh so close were a handful of republicans from caving to demands for John Bolton to testify, opening the doors to several more weeks of the Senate trial. Play that one out in you mind.

Little know fact:

After Trump issued the travel ban for China, democrats went to work passing a bill out of committee stripping the President of his authority to issue the ban.

The day the bill was to be introduced on the House floor, Pelosi postponed it. A few days later the bill was withdrawn, as deaths in a Washington nursing home were piling up.

That legislative action is now completely memory holed, and the new "fact" are democrats "democrats warned, Trump denied, people died".

Laslo Spatula said...

"I used to be against war, but then I found out that cancer kills more people, so I guess I was wrong."

Damn - I was just thinking that exact same thing.

It's hard when someone encapsulates what you are thinking so precisely, then publishes it before you even have the chance to type those very words.

I was talking to a friend who said he talked to the brother of a nurse who told him how she never cried, not once, about young children dying in the cancer ward -- not even the blonde ones with the big blue eyes --but this event has brought her to tears.

She even said it was kind of cathartic.

Come on people: shine on your brother.

I am Laslo.

JPS said...

tim in vermont, 6:56:

Indeed, I remember a lot of us being pretty annoyed at Pres. Obama for saying we were making too big a deal of terrorism, because more people died of lots of other causes. (Which is true even if you don’t use the trick of starting your Islamic Terrorism Death Count on 9/12/01.)

I still think we were right to make a big deal of it, because only a fool would think the death count couldn’t go much, much higher if we didn’t take action to keep it from doing so. I also think, in retrospect, that a lot of the actions we took didn’t actually help. Some did.

I hold out hope for a non-axe-grinding retrospective on COVID19 after it has passed. Not betting on it though.

Bob Boyd said...

Why is the Wuhan death count in Sweden, the model for right wingers, so much higher than the other countries surrounding it?

Is it higher as a percentage or just a bigger number?
Because Sweden does have a larger population.
Not advocating, just asking.

Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...

As of this morning, there are 103 coronavirus deaths in Wisconsin. 2 weeks ago, the state estimated there would be as many as 1500 deaths by today. The estimate was made during the current SIP protocol. It makes you wonder how they got it so wrong. It makes you wonder what else they are getting wrong.

Clyde said...

The problem for Cuomo, de Blasio, etc., was that fact that the people who were contagious and spreading the virus did so for days before showing symptoms; it was a stealth virus. They were used to seeing the opposite in previous epidemics. You don't worry about social distancing if asymptomatic people aren't spreading a virus; you look for people who show symptoms and stay away from them. This disease is different, and the people who were slow on the uptake about that took a long time to figure out that it wasn't going to be business as usual.

traditionalguy said...

It will take Team Trump another week to get the Deep State exposed and eliminated. Then the CoronaVirus can be disappeared.

Laslo Spatula said...

Overheard in a hospital cafeteria:

"The doctor said it was cancer. Thank goodness: I was so worried it was Covid-19."

Now -- to be clear -- I didn't overhear it myself, but I overheard someone saying they overheard it.

The Wicker Man of Anecdotes.

I am Laslo.

Clyde said...

gilbar said...

how IS overall morality comparing to normal?


Adultery is way down, for one. Public drunkenness as well. Private drunkenness may be a different story.

(Yeah, I know, it was a typo. Too good to resist, though.)

Shouting Thomas said...

When do I get my freedom and civil liberties back?

Yeah, I know... the authorities are just doing this for my own good.

tim in vermont said...

Who said it about what?

“If you’re gonna make an omelette, ya gotta break some eggs."

Shouting Thomas said...

tim in vermont is on record

He’ll surrender to house arrest and agree to the suspension of his civil liberties if he gets scared.

Live free or... well... that stuff is only for when scary things aren’t happening!

Anyway, New Hampshire is next door and not to be confused with Vermont.

And you can trust the authorities to do the right thing!

Oso Negro said...

Blogger Bushman of the Kohlrabi said...
As of this morning, there are 103 coronavirus deaths in Wisconsin. 2 weeks ago, the state estimated there would be as many as 1500 deaths by today. The estimate was made during the current SIP protocol. It makes you wonder how they got it so wrong. It makes you wonder what else they are getting wrong.


As a chemical plant manager, it was my job to make decisions with good information, bad information, or no information at all, frequently informed by human emotional responses to events. After I thought about it long enough, I realized this is what normal humans do, all the time. Politicians, too. There isn't good information just now. But there is plenty of incomplete information and lots of hysteria. I am of the opinion that the Diamond Princess is the best information we have of a population exposed to the virus over a period of time. The Japanese are careful with numbers and they are naturally suspicious of the Chinese.

Browndog said...

Kay said...

Interesting.... I had heard elsewhere that the first cases came in from Seattle.


The first case in NYC was a woman from Iran.

AllenS said...

gilbar, read this about traffic accidents --

LINK TEXT

iowan2 said...

Is it higher as a percentage or just a bigger number?
Because Sweden does have a larger population.
Not advocating, just asking.


This is a great example of people using statistics in an attempt to buttress their position. The event is taylor made for propaganda.

If deaths aren't reported per/Million look at the number with the motivation of propaganda.

Ambrose said...

The NY spin on this will be that the virus did not first come to NY from China so Trump's a racist and it's all his fault.

iowan2 said...

uhm...taylor/tailor

Temujin said...

The fatality count as well as the infection rate have become- like everything else- a political football. Its impossible to know how accurate any of these rates are- anywhere in the world. This started with China. Once the disease broke, and no one knew what was actually happening, the actual counts, there was no way to get a track on it.

These daily numbers can give us an idea of when we peak and when things start to trail off. Aside from that, there's simply no accurate way to know what really happened until well after it is past. Then they can look back and dig. How many of these Covid deaths were really Covid deaths?

But that aside, I'm very tired of people's expectations of how this has been handled here. Mainly the press, who should just grow up already. Their questioning is infantile. I think most everyone has done everything they can (except for Nancy Pelosi and Bill De Blasio) to get this handled. There was no rule book on how to do this. They have marshaled an immense amount of equipment and personnel worldwide to get things we need here. To knock down FDA rules and regs to speed through drug usage and trials. To get meds to where they need to go. And yes- there will always be stories of those who didn't get what they needed. Welcome to life for all of history. We got a small taste of it. A very small taste- and we're getting through it.

I can only imagine how Obama's team would have dealt with it. I have serious doubts that we'd be seeing as much done, yet I also have serious doubts that the press would be doing anything but applause, oohs & aahs.

Anonymous said...

New York City is not as bad. It's the worst.

Amazing to me that when dictators say things, people believe them. Why would we believe any dictatorship that does not allow free speech and free press? Why believe Cuba when they brag about their healthcare? Why believe what China says about the death count?

It's not that our officials are better human beings. Our system is better, way better. Our officials honestly report the death counts because they would get in so much trouble if they lied about them. China's system is horrific. I just assume as a matter of course that the number of people who died in China is sky-high. And they are lying about it to protect the dictatorship.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

“If you’re gonna make an omelette, ya gotta break some eggs."

Somehow it always ends up with all the eggs broken, but still no omelette.

Fernandinande said...

Addendum: I under exaggerated. Last year 6,950 pedestrians died in Florida while crossing the street.

It's actually about 1/10 of that.

But you seem to have found an interestingly misleading statement which also predicts the past:

TAMPA, Fla. – A new report from the Governors Highway Safety Association [Governors Highway Safety Association is a non-profit organization located in Washington, DC. - Ed.] predicts that 6,590 pedestrian deaths happened in 2019, the highest number in more than 30 years. "

That's for the whole US of A. Hey, didja hear that hippos are the most dangerous animals evar?

The MSM is like a box of chocolates: you always know that you're going to get chocolates, and double-talk.

Browndog said...

If you, like me, were wondering why Dr. Blix has seemingly become a slave to the model, when ten days ago models were just another factor as hard data was now available.

The White House adopted the computer model funded by the Gates Foundation at the end of March. A couple days later, Trump announced the "30 days to stop the spread" replacing the "15 days to stop the spread". That models shows this week there is an explosion of death and misery. Trump is now extending that to "a week to 10 days."

Yesterday Dr. Blix said how proud she was that Americans were conforming to the model.
What an odd thing to say.

Turns out there may be a reason this new model adopted by the White House, funded by the Gates Foundation, is held in utmost regard-

The daughter of Dr. Blix is an associate director of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Drago said...

"Massachusetts sewage suggests more than 100K coronavirus cases in state: MIT lab"

"Just one section of Massachusetts could have more than 100,000 coronavirus cases — many times more than the entire state has identified at this point, according to an MIT-associated study of local sewage.

Biobot Analytics, which is a lab associated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, published research this week that an analysis of sewage from a treatment facility in “a large metropolitan area in the state of Massachusetts” suggested that many more people potentially have the highly contagious disease than tests have confirmed.

“On March 25, the area represented by the sample had approximately 446 confirmed cases of Covid-19,” Biobot researchers wrote Wednesday in a post about their research. “Based on our sewage analysis, we estimate that up to 115,000 people are infected and shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

Uh oh.

Virtue signalers potentially hardest hit.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

It’s obvious now that New Yorkers should have masked up on the subway and streets starting at the beginning of February, and Trump should have banned travelers from Europe when they wouldn’t join our January 31 China travel ban. And why is the NYC metro area still not under an official quarantine?

Sebastian said...

"New York City is not as bad. It's the worst."

Well, but at least we know it's Trump's fault. His, and the evangelicals'.

Drago said...

Browndog: "Turns out there may be a reason this new model adopted by the White House, funded by the Gates Foundation, is held in utmost regard-

The daughter of Dr. Blix is an associate director of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation."

And Dr Blix's husband is a former advance man for Bill Clinton.

And Fauci is bestest buddies with Marxist Not-A-Real-Dr Tedros and is in thick with the Gates, their foundation and even one George Soros as well. And if you get a chance, take a gander at the astonishing suckup notes Fauci penned to Hillary Clinton. Truly cringe-inducing.

Yep. Nothing to see there.

Nothing at all.

Its all on the up and up.

daskol said...

I don't know. We did a virtual seder last night that included my cousins from Boston, one an emergency care physician. Boston without a NYC style CV outbreak might still be worse.

Sebastian said...

The latest from NYC, as of yesterday: 4260 deaths. Of cases "known," 18 under 44 with no underlying conditions, 0 under 17; half over 65 with "underlying conditions."

Drago said...

daskol: "I don't know. We did a virtual seder last night that included my cousins from Boston, one an emergency care physician. Boston without a NYC style CV outbreak might still be worse."

See my 7:57am post.

Maybe Boston already did have an "outbreak", but in the end, it was equivalent to a typical flu season.

But then again, what do those MIT-ers know about Boston anyway?

Drago said...

The "good news" for the virtue signalers is that now 16 million Americans have lost their jobs and now can spend even more time self-isolating!

Wins all around.

Income, who needs it?

"US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6 million and we’ve now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks"
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/weekly-jobless-claims-report.html?

Browndog said...


"US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6 million and we’ve now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks"
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/weekly-jobless-claims-report.html?


Did the new numbers just come out?

Xmas said...

446 confirmed cases in Massachusetts on March 25 must have been Boston/Suffolk County. No other area had that many cases in a concentrated area at that time. Middlesex county had as many cases, but that covers a wide swath of Boston suburbs north and west of the city.

Kevin said...

Viruses feed on arrogance.

iowan2 said...

Maybe Sweden will burn through it faster and have fewer deaths overall. There is a case to be made, supported by the math, but to pretend that the price to be paid is not that high is stupid.

I remember Brix, and Fauci, explaining the mitigation, and shut down of the economy, would not save lives, overall. It would only spread out the case load for Hospitals. So citing Sweden's death count seems like one of those 'Statistics' used to prove a point, but not even being on point.
(The above requires 100% deferral to experts)

Browndog said...

No doubt States are using their unemployment websites as a check valve to limit how many people can sign up per week. "Server is at capacity" is the new "please hold for the next available representative".

flatten the curve..

Howard said...

Drago finds a model he can believe in

Drago said...

Howard: "Drago finds a model he can believe in"

Howard finds an "elite" school model he doesnt believe in....even though the COV shedding residue is there. It can be demonstrated to be there.

But it doesnt count....why? He wont tell us.

I guess Trump put it there.

Just add that to the Sham-peachment III Articles.

chuck said...

New York City is not as bad. It's the worst.

Timing was everything. NY was about two weeks behind the curve and is paying the price. Same thing happened in Italy.

jaydub said...

From the Babylon Bee:

"Bernie Sanders Drops Out As Campaign Goals Of Locking Everyone Up, Destroying Economy Already Achieved."

Andy said...

@Howard at 8:32 AM
Lets say that study that Drago has posted about is wildly over estimating the number of cases in Massachusetts, and the number is only at 25% of the studies total. That still over 25,000 cases and Drago would still be more right than wrong.

Static Ping said...

I can't say New York City is the worst. China is obviously lying about their numbers, so who knows what is happening over there. Iran is also lying about their numbers and they may be experiencing a catastrophe for all I know. And New Orleans is trying its best to take the title of worst hit city in the United States.

In a way I cannot blame officials for being slow in responding. They had been starved of information as China was actively executing a disinformation campaign with the assistance of WHO. Shutting down the economy, as what we have been basically forced to do, is an extreme step. Pandemics are something you can plan for but they are rare events. You can plan all you want, but experience is the best tool in these situations and no one has experience, which is further complicated since each pandemic is unique. As we have seen, some of our pandemic experts, especially the modelers, seem to have no idea what is going on and the authorities are relying on these people.

From what I have seen, both Trump and Cuomo were very reluctant to move forward with the pandemic steps, but once they committed to it they have done a pretty good job. They are far from perfect, but you don't get perfect in these situations. People who expect perfect should go to church more often. DeBlasio has revealed himself to be an ineffectual, incompetent, selfish jackass. On the plus side, he at least claims to be the mayor. The mayor of New Orleans seems to think that everyone else is supposed to make her decisions for her while she sits back and collects graft.

Andy said...

Static Ping: The mayor of New Orleans seems to think that everyone else is supposed to make her decisions for her while she sits back and collects graft.
No one in NOLA expects the mayor to do anything other than collecting graft, thats the job. If a mayor of New Orleans were to actually try to improve lives, people would die of shock.

Howard said...

In contrast to this look at what went on in California with the early adoption of distancing has turned Corona into a relative nothing Burger. Of course Achilles will blame it on the warm weather.

tim in vermont said...

"I remember Brix, and Fauci, explaining the mitigation, and shut down of the economy, would not save lives, overall.”

I would love to see the link for that one, since it’s exactly the opposite of the whole justification for flattening the curve that they have used to justify the shutdowns that we have read about here for a month or so.

BTW, who said “One death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic” I think it might have to do with that omelette quote.

Shouting Thomas said...

No Howard, this is what I blame it on:

My GP is director of infection control at the local hospital and director of the county COVID-19 task force.

He recorded a video for doctors in the area that I watched 2 weeks ago. His main points:

1. Almost everybody will ultimately be infected
2. Majority won’t know they have it
3. Another big chunk will suffer minor cold or flu symptoms and recover
4. The elderly morbidly obese with co-morbidities will get hit hard

I predicted at the beginning of this panic that the number of casualties of this pandemic would be just about the same as for the 2009 H1N1 flue epidemic, or for any of the predictable 10 year peak pandemics. Well, I didn't predict it. My doctor did.

tim in vermont said...

"The mayor of New Orleans seems to think that everyone else is supposed to make her decisions for her while she sits back and collects graft.”

Well Katrina showed us that all the mayor is required to do by law is to blame the president for his or her failures.

tim in vermont said...

If you think that what I am trying to do is “virtue signal” I can only say I have chosen a pretty funny way to go about it. I have been turned into a pariah on this site that was one of the important things in my life and that I had thought would be a comfort in this whole mess.

I can only call ‘em how I see ‘em. I can’t come on here and post stuff I don’t believe.

Bay Area Guy said...

Moral dilemma -- do I stand muted while the cohort of 8 Million neurotic, stressed out, mostly New York Democrats continue to stew in the juices of their crowed, urban leftwing utopia, or shall I stand athwart of society, screaming "Stop!"

Neither -- I shall simply comment anonymously on a blog.

There's a well-established epidemiological concept called, Herd Immunity. Here's a nice paper on it from 2000, so it's uninfluenced by the current viral freak-out.

So, up until 2 months ago, New Yorkers took 5.4 Million subway rides per day. This has gone for 50-100 years. This has gone on, during the Zika, SARS, West Nile, H1N1, AIDS, and yearly flu outbreaks over the past 40 years.

Add free concerts in Central Park

Add Knick basketball games in Madison Square Park.

Add crowded sidewalks in Times Square

Add 65 Million tourists to New York, many from China..

What does this mean? It means that millions of foreigners and New Yorkers are exchanging trillions of their germs with each other every fucking day -- without any social distancing over decades.

And, yet, very few are dying on the streets. Life expectancy has increased from 1924 to the present from about age 52 to nearly age 82.

That's what herd immunity is. The opposite of social distancing. Getting exposed, getting over it, and developing immunity to it.

This isn't BAG talking nonsense. Go to PubMed and type in "herd immunity." You will find hundreds of papers.

I have one more small point to make about deaths in NY.

Jupiter said...

The worst is already behind us. The morons running our governments haven't got a clue. That's the charitable interpretation. The uncharitable interpretation is that they were unable to destroy our economy by scaring people with Global Warming projections, so they decided to use Global Plague projections instead. Seems to be working. Let's hear it for "Science"!

Bay Area Guy said...

Here's the NY City website re Covid-19.

Lotta crap, gotta wade thru it a bit, but here's the daily summary of NYC deaths.

Look at the Co-Morbidities in Column 1. I quote the footnote: Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, and GI/Liver Disease.

Those diseases are basically everything that kills us, except suicides and car accidents.

In other words, NY is inflating their death numbers by counting folks who already have life-threatening conditions. They are not distinguishing between folks who have Covid-19 and then die, with folks who die BECAUSE of Covid-19. It's subtle, yes, but it too is an important epidemiological principle.

Have a nice day!

Bay Area Guy said...

"Madison Square Park"? I should slap myself. Madison Square Garden, duh. Been there many times.

Wince said...

“Based on our sewage analysis, we estimate that up to 115,000 people are infected and shedding the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”

A little confusing with the nomenclature (isn't it 19?). Maybe why it's clearer to call it Wuhan Virus or Flu?

Aside from that, for a know hospitalization/mortality rate, doesn't that indicate lots of people are now or on the way to being immune?

Martin said...

Wince---

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. COVID-19 is the 2019-20 outbreak of infections.

Anthony said...

I think "WuFlu" should catch on.

Yancey Ward said...

The mass transit system is the problem for New York and the surrounding metropolitan area. You can literally see disease spread out from NYC into New Jersey and Connecticut along the commuter rail system. As far as I can tell, New York is still running the mass transit system at similar passenger density, just fewer overall riders due to cut service.

All that said, though, Cuomo and Blasio are not responsible for what has happened in New York City and the surrounding area- no one could have stopped this from happening. The die was cast the moment the first COVID-19 carrier left China on an airplane, and this certainly happened sometime late last Summer or early last Fall.

Howard said...

I have no idea if the almighty poop model it's reasonable or not. I don't actually care at this point because it'll take months and months to do the necessary testing to figure out how close their estimate was.

I am very interested in this notion that covid 19 is much more widespread. My elite libtard adult son university professor with several Chinese native grad students working for him had Corona like symptoms in mid February. Intense fever chills body aches and pain spent five days in bed very sore throat dry cough that persisted for probably about a month after his fever aching pain recovery.

Jupiter said...

"I would love to see the link for that one, since it’s exactly the opposite of the whole justification for flattening the curve that they have used to justify the shutdowns that we have read about here for a month or so."

Tim, I don't have a link for those particular Left Fascists, but what do you think "flattening the curve" means? It means that all of us are going to get it no matter what we do, and they want it to happen slowly enough that they can keep the ones who are going to die on ventilators for a week or two before they go.

Whatever they may have told you, your hair is not on fire. But maybe you should soak your head anyway.

Original Mike said...

"I have been turned into a pariah…"

Passive voice.

Jupiter said...

"... doesn't that indicate lots of people are now or on the way to being immune?"

That's exactly what it means. It means the herd is now immune.

Mary Beth said...

"The federal response was chaotic. Even so, the state’s and city’s own initial efforts failed to keep pace with the outbreak"

What efforts?

I personally don't see the early federal response as chaotic. In January, the fed response was to create a Covid task force and to limit flights from China. This was called xenophobic and the NY politicians were telling people to go out and carry on as usual while doing nothing to prepare.

Francisco D said...

Howard said ... My elite libtard adult son university professor with several Chinese native grad students working for him had Corona like symptoms in mid February. Intense fever chills body aches and pain spent five days in bed very sore throat dry cough that persisted for probably about a month after his fever aching pain recovery.

My wife had the same excruciating symptoms in early February. At one point she could barely breath. Luckily, she had 10 year old asthma medication that helped just before I was going to take her to the ER. We have since learned of several members of her running club having the same complaints.

There is a lot we will learn about this virus in the months to come. It would be nice if we had a media that wasn't so invested in spreading DNC and ChiComm talking points.

Andy said...

More fun with math and bad stats

Lets look a two scenarios one where the study quoted by Drago is right on the mark and number of cases for Massachusetts is at 115,000. The other is where that study overstates the number of cases by 3/4 and the number of cases at only about 25,000+. Now the average size by population for a U. S. state is about 6.5 million which is funnily enough close to the size of, you guessed it Massachusetts. Isn't this fun!!! Ok so multiply by 50 and in scenario 1 the total U. S. cases would be about 5,750,000 and scenario 2 would be 1,250,000. So under scenario 1 the mortality rate 0.25% and under scenario 2 it would be 1.18%. A couple of notes: This is bad methodology on my part. The article Drago linked to said that the study was based samples from a waste water treatment site from one large metro area. So is the 115,000 the number for that treatment site or an estimate for the whole state. Oh and hats off to whoever went into that treatment site and collected those stool samples.

Andy said...

Howard

That I think gets to the heart of the matter. One of the things that I have been wondering about is the large number of Chinese students in our universities. Some percentage of them had to have gone home during the Christmas/winter break. If you assume at least some of those were infected then they would have been back in the U. S. weeks before the travel ban would have been in place. That could have seeded in the virus in a part of the population were it would be least noticed. Especially since no one would been looking for the disease before the end of January. The thing that has made me question that idea is the lack of reports involving college professors. Although anyone who would have said, I have a case of the flu in January or February would never have questioned that assumption.

Howard said...

Francisco D: who knows what that was in February. Personally I hope it was the Coronavirus because my son exposed all of us to us to it and no one got it. I was driving him and his children home one Sunday evening while he was still quite sick and he sat next to me facing me reading Horatio Hornblower to the kids in the back seat blowing his breath in my direction the whole trip and then at one point in time I turn to look at him briefly right as he coughed in my face. I thought for sure I was going to get what he had but I never did. That makes me suspect that it wasn't Corona

Howard said...

Andy the degree of uncertainty with everything is very high right now. Once testing gets ramped up and they have statistically significant samples of the population at Large will we know what the true infection rate and the true reinfection rate and the true death rate is I'm guessing maybe by September we'll know.

Until then I am going to practice social distancing not only for myself but for the people around me because who knows maybe I'm a carrier emitting corona everywhere I go yet feel no symptoms

Howard said...

I have a large stockpile of Albuterol for my vaporizer. I know it works well for upper respiratory tract infections. I'm not sure how effective it would be for the Deep lung effects of Corona.

ngtrains said...

Denmark, Norway, Sweden

cases per million pop: S 833.6 N 1112.3 D 966.3
deaths S 8.16% N 1.67% D 3.89% of recorded cases.


Birkel said...

The attacks on Cuomo start?

Is somebody else angling toward the Democratic nomination?

ngtrains said...

I needed to add the US for comparison:

Denmark, Norway, Sweden, United States

cases per million pop: S 833.6 N 1112.3 D 966.3 US 1304.6

deaths S 8.16% N 1.67% D 3.89% US 3.43% of recorded cases.

Drago said...

Andy: "@Howard at 8:32 AM
Lets say that study that Drago has posted about is wildly over estimating the number of cases in Massachusetts, and the number is only at 25% of the studies total. That still over 25,000 cases and Drago would still be more right than wrong."
4/9/20, 9:06 AM

I say, I like the cut of this Andrew chap's jib.

Drago said...

Birkel: "The attacks on Cuomo start?

Is somebody else angling toward the Democratic nomination?"

I know my cue when I see it!

Obambi STILL wont endorse Biden....attacks on Cuomo beginning in the lefty MSM propaganda organs (Blue on Blue baby!)....Bernie still hanging on to his delegates now and from future primaries...

Tomcc said...

It's good to see the NYT turn its attention to the issues within NY. It's very easy to find fault with elected and bureaucratic leaders after the fact. It's satisfying to say "you should have known"!
Unfortunately, as Static Ping noted, the idea that anyone has (or had) perfect information upon which to act is a supreme act of hubris in itself.
End the lockdown in those cities, counties, states that have low incidence. Let us go back to work with PPE.

KellyM said...

Yesterday I was listening to the afternoon drive show on KFI from Los Angeles (mainly because the state of local radio in the Bay Area is horrendous) and it was the daily segment with a pulmonologist (sp?) of some reputation from a local medical center.

He stated that for the purposes of tracking and data collection, all deaths currently are being recorded as caused by Coronavirus, even if the individual were plagued with other chronic conditions such as high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, etc. The idea is that these people were already dealing with compromised health issues and the virus hastened things at much more rapid pace. Those other issues would still be taken into consideration as part of the problem, but not the actual cause. The death certificates would ultimately reflect the other information as well, but that's considered a separate issue.

I don't think the medical community can win either way; some faction of people are going to be convinced that they're cooking the books, regardless of their assertion to the contrary.

Tomcc said...

Also: time to ramp up random testing.

mockturtle said...

New York City is not as bad. It's the worst.

NY should have been isolated weeks ago. And when Trump suggested it, Cuomo squealed like a stuck pig. Why should the rest of the country suffer because some major metropolitan areas have been sloppy in their handling of the pandemic?

ngtrains said...

a chart of weekly pneumonia deaths shows a pretty stable trend for 2013-2019 (Oct to Sept) for those years

the chart of the same for 2019-2020 is similar, but starting in January it tails off so that the deaths in recent weeks is only 60% fo the deaths in the past years. If that trend holds for other co-morbidilty causes ( heart disease, COPD, etc) then the total deaths may not be much different from a normal year from people suffering from those problems.

mockturtle said...

The daughter of Dr. Blix is an associate director of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Veeeery interesting, Brown dog!

Birkel said...

Tim in Vermont,
RE: ash tree disease

If your cure to the ash tree disease is to burn down all the forests in Vermont then I would argue your thinking is poor. You see, the whole point is about trade-offs. Quit pretending it is otherwise.

Seriously, you appear to have been unmanned.

RigelDog said...

Tim in Vermont said, "I don’t mind the opposition to lockdowns. But if you are dishonest about it, claiming that lifting them will not kill anybody who wouldn’t have died anyway, well, I just have to assume that you are either completely uncaring about massive numbers of early deaths, or not that clear of a thinker all the while indulging the fantasy that you are the clear sighted one."

Weren't we informed in the early days that a virus will run a certain bell-shaped curve once it gets going in a given population---and that the same number of people will be infected regardless of the shape of the curve? IIRC, the (excellent) idea of shut-down has proposed to flatten this curve, giving us time to prepare and not overwhelm hospitals in the immediately future. They never said the shut-down would be in place with the goal of being able to substantially and forever limit the number of those who contract the disease. Once restrictions are lifted, the virus is going to do what viruses do. So what does an HONEST discussion of our long-term response to COVID look like?

RigelDog said...

"I remember Brix, and Fauci, explaining the mitigation, and shut down of the economy, would not save lives, overall. It would only spread out the case load for Hospitals. "

Exactly! The information I read and heard indicated that this virus (just like any similar virus) is going to roll through the population sooner or later, and will infect a similar number of people before herd immunity and/or vaccine cause the right-hand side of the distribution curve to peter out. If we are only waiting for medical and infrastructure capacity to catch up, then the beginning of the end of lock-down should be very much in sight.

Skippy Tisdale said...

"Why is the Wuhan death count in Sweden, the model for right wingers"

I thought Sweden was the Bernie Sanders model.

Richard Dolan said...

"New York City is not as bad. It's the worst."

Once again, there's that NYC superlative thing going on. How many other places can claim to be the best at anything?

phwest said...

The Estimated cases from the study referenced in the Boston Herald was for the area studied, not the entire state. The article is a lousy summary, as is typical, because only the upper limit of the estimate was referenced. I haven’t seen the study, but would assume the lower limit isn’t much above zero. An interesting data point, but way more work is needed.

Caligula said...

"New York’s hospitals were some of the best in the world." New York's research/teaching hospitals do have some of the best doctors in the world. BUT these same hospitals also often have some of the worst nursing you'll find anywhere.

And, when you're sick in a hospital it's nurses who keep you alive. If anyone does. But especially so for a disease for which there is yet only treatments of "possible" utility, pending further testing.

ngtrains said...

We lost all 7 of the ash trees in our front yard. Most are gone from NE Ohio by now. They cut easily and split easily, but they are messy for firewood - some heat and roaring flames, but they leave - wait for it - far more ashes to carry out than Maple or oak.

I've had to clean the fireplace three times his year.

chuck said...

the chart of the same for 2019-2020 is similar, but starting in January it tails off so that the deaths in recent weeks is only 60% fo the deaths in the past years.

The falloff is a reporting delay artifact. The same pattern shows up every year with the date of the falloff advancing as the reporting advances. There is a nice animation of this.

Etienne said...

Cartoon: two grave diggers shoveling dirt into a hole.

"We have the best health care system on the planet right here in New York."

"Ha Ha, nice one Yousef, praise Allah we only have 738 burials today."

Robert Cook said...

I'm about 25% into Camus's THE PLAGUE. He anticipates exactly the reaction of the pertinent government authorities to the dawning realization a health disaster is germinating in their midst: first deny it, then minimize it, then begrudgingly acknowledge a "problem," then impose emergency measures that involve restriction of movement and activity.