.@OANN A key CoronaVirus Model is now predicting far fewer deaths than the number shown in earlier models. That’s because the American people are doing a great job. Social Distancing etc. Keep going!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 9, 2020
April 9, 2020
Trump loves to announce that people are doing a great job.
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This just proves he's a racist! IMPEACH!!
Trump is appreciative.
This is cheerleading. He knows the models were wrong but has to give us kudos for following through. Sigh.
Trump's political genius is creating a playing field where his opponents aren't equipped to play. Close your eyes and imagine Obama or Pelosi saying "The American people are doing a great job" rather than scolding them. Yeah, I can't imagine it either.
That "keep going" is confusing. We are supposed to be staying home, which is the opposite of going.
When you're going through Hell, keep going.
The way it ends is the numbers come in below all these ridiculous models, Trump declares victory and takes credit. Newsome declares victory and takes credit in California.
And liberals continue to walk around in a hazy fog of unreality wondering what happened?
"That "keep going" is confusing."
He's reassuring the toilet paper hoarders.
So Trump is basically saying what Auntie timinvermont Ken B and Howard the troll I've been saying all morning.
No apologies necessary. The reward is having your stupidity confirmed.
We've had some presidents who did not operate that way. People like that, he's a businessman not a Chicago politician.
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said exactly the right thing.
President Trump is a fan of the American people, the Democrats are not. And it's a big political strength for Trump to show, and emphasize, that
Obama: I, I, I, me, me, me.
Trump: That guy's doing a great job! That guy's doing a terrible job!
Press: Trump is throwing his people under the bus!!!
Howard said...
So Trump is basically saying what Auntie timinvermont Ken B and Howard the troll I've been saying all morning.
Really? You've been saying the American people are great, and doing a great job?
If so, I'm very proud of you.
Remember when Benghazi went down?
No Obama to be found.
Trump may point out where people are doing a bad job.
But at least he's at the podium in good times and bad.
Keep going. Stay parked in your driveway, do not drive on the parkway.
Trump and all the other crisis management folks are saying, convinced even, that the program or regime of social distancing and staying at home is working. It's worth the pain of 16 million unemployed because substantially fewer will become sick and die.
Who can prove him wrong?
"So Trump is basically saying what Auntie timinvermont Ken B and Howard the troll I've been saying all morning.
No apologies necessary. The reward is having your stupidity confirmed"
Heh -- the arm-couch epidemiologists are crowing:)
I put toilet paper hoarders in the same category of people who panic-buy all the frozen meals. They are likely unaccustomed to cooking food from staple ingredients, and cannot fathom how else to get shit off their asshole.
The more resourceful ones know that there are a dozen ways to do any one thing.
Hey, it feels good to hear that we are all doing a great job!
Yes the models have been all wrong all along, just like they always are. Fauci and Birx - and Gates - have helped to wreck our economy. No one is going to like where we end up when all this is done. Failed businesses, massive unemployment. Worse than the Great Depression. I wonder what they will name this one?
When there are fewer deaths than expected:
1) Proponents of extraordinary measures: we were right, it worked!
2) Opponents of extraordinary measures: we were right, it wasn't necessary.
3) Political leaders: we were right, we saved you.
4) The media: Orange Man Bad
Everybody wins!
Well Bay Area guy, the news is good that makes me happy. it should make you happy too because this will cement Trump's re-election so in this case you win and I win. I'll drink to that
“ So Trump is basically saying what Auntie timinvermont Ken B and Howard the troll I've been saying all morning.”
Yup.
Words from a great coach and leader. Vince Lombardi would be proud.
Complimenting people on doing a good job? Does The Orange Monster's depravity know no bounds!?
" Howard said...
So Trump is basically saying what Auntie timinvermont Ken B and Howard the troll I've been saying all morning."
Yes, he is. And I am astonished to see him saying something so self-evidently stupid.
Of course, what he is actually saying is that the pointy-headed technocrats who built the models and used them to scare the politicians into destroying our economy have finally dialed them back to where they have some vague correspondence to reality, now that the damage is done.
But he does not appear to realize how badly he was had.
@Tim Maguire,
When there are fewer deaths than expected:
1) Proponents of extraordinary measures: we were right, it worked!
2) Opponents of extraordinary measures: we were right, it wasn't necessary.
3) Political leaders: we were right, we saved you.
4) The media: Orange Man Bad
Everybody wins!
Bingo! As Napoleon once said, "History is a set of lies agreed upon!"
For me, I just want the lockdown to end promptly. So, for now, I will defer any antagonism on the issue:)
shorter Jupiter: The Deep State punked Trump into the overreaction that is now going to save his bacon in the election. So basically you're saying the Trump is Forrest Gump
Jupiter is right: Trump was had, and so were the governors. The Govs were eager to be had: shutdowns were the ultimate see-I'm-doing-everything CYA take-control operation. Trump at least reserved judgment, expressing a desire to reopen soon, and making tough decisions early on, like the flight bans, when expert opinion was not united, while doing his own CYA by parading experts all the time.
As Glenn Reynolds has been saying, Trump can now turn the panic projections to his advantage:
1. Real calculations showed we could have had millions of deaths!
2. We only had 60K!
3. Thanks to my leadership and the great work of the American people, we saved millions of lives!
4. Now let's get back to work, and vote for me.
5. MAGA.
Howard
I have been telling the Covidiot denialists that their theory requires Trump to be a dupe, since he supports distancing and restrictions, and they howl. Jupiter might just have missed the daily briefing.
"For me, I just want the lockdown to end promptly. So, for now, I will defer any antagonism on the issue:)"
Who said anything about ending the lockdown?
Trump is playing the game that he pretty much has to play
Ken and Howard, if I understand you right, Trump was a dupe, but you are not dupes, because you are in on the hoax. Got it.
"I am astonished to see him saying something so self-evidently stupid."
But it sets up a fun dilemma for progs and pro-panic faction.
Will they give him credit for telling the lie they like to hear, thanking Trump for affirming their good judgment? Or will they still accuse Trump of being a lying liar, but thereby refute their own panicky self-justification?
Actually, Howard is just a troll, albeit a very good one, but i think Ken B is sincere. Ken, take a look at this, and tell me what you think;
https://www.professorhinkley.com/blog/oregons-stunning-covid-numbers?fbclid=IwAR2Zu1sizyjNWmkJ_EXTi4zO9a3jsejlzQmdmXZuYhFEq0vv8KNC1g2CmDs
"Trump is playing the game that he pretty much has to play"
Yup. Politics is the art of the possible.
Jupiter: You are the one who is presupposing that Trump has been duped by the Deep State elite science Lefty libtard pointy-headed intellectuals
I'm pretty sure Trump created his own mental model and figured out the only way for him to win the re-election was to go with the expert advice on social distancing. if I were you I would be dancing in the streets because one pandemic is turning out to be almost NothingBurger but close and Trump is almost guaranteed re-election unless the Democrats nominate someone other than Joe Biden
You know, people (i.e. Trump haters) like to attack Trump and accuse him of being a divisive hater who does nothing but attack others. Yet if you look at the last few years, actually he has frequently sought to say positive and complimentary things about others -- including if not especially those he disagrees with.
"... if I were you I would be dancing in the streets ..."
Well, there would certainly be plenty of room for dancing.
"Trump is playing the game that he pretty much has to play"
Indeed. He had no choice. To do anything else would have given his enemies the opportunity to blame him for every single death.
I am trying to see this latest sockfull of shit in the context of Global Warming. A guy like Trump is smart enough, and has the experience, to deal with Democrat pols and Chi-Com dictators. But these "scientists" were able to snow him. Hell, they snowed almost everyone for a while, until it dawned on us that they think life takes place in a test tube in a laboratory, and they will happily sit in front of a computer solving their equations while the World burns.
It appears that an unconsidered faith in "science" is the latest of the many vulnerabilities we have discovered in "democracy". Certainly, the Lefties think so, and are eager to exploit it.
Let's play the corona virus presser drinking game. Take a shot of your favorite spirit everytime a certain word is said in the presser.
Here are the rules:
1) Can't use Trump saying "incredible". You'll be drunk within 15 minutes
2) Can't use anyone saying the word "community". Same reason
My proposals:
1) Birx says "granular"
2) Trump says "fake media"
3) Fauci says "mitigation"
Feel free to add your rules.
I have only listened to a few of the briefings, and only in short bursts (15 minutes max), but I have noticed that Trump is liberal with praise for others.
And he uses the plural first person "we" frequently.
"I" and "me" (in the bits I heard) was primarily used to talk about phone calls and meetings (e.g., "I spoke with [x]...").
Okay so Trump is a victim not a dupe and that's better why?
Maybe it's easier to snow Trump because he snorts so much pseudoephedrine
How dare Trump be upbeat?
I took the under.
I cannot wait to read of Canada's economic depression.
The corrupt hack-D press will find something wrong.
Ah Ken B’s “no mitigation” Straw Man makes it’s regular appearance. An argument no one here ever made.
“This is cheerleading. He knows the models were wrong but has to give us kudos for following through. Sigh.”
No, he’s right. Give him credit for being right when he is right. The models weren’t wrong. Social distancing has worked and is still working. We see it in states like Oregon, CA and WA where they immediately closed things down. The models are changing to reflect the success of mitigation efforts.
“How dare Trump be upbeat?”
How dare Trump tell the truth about the success of mitigation? He better be careful, his followers will get PO’d.
1. Real calculations showed we could have had millions of deaths!
2. We only had 60K!
3. Thanks to my leadership and the great work of the American people, we saved millions of lives!
4. Now let's get back to work, and vote for me.
5. MAGA.
This was Trump's plan. It is not complicated people.
“But these "scientists" were able to snow him.”
But, but, but Trump is a stable genius, how did this happen?!
While Democrats love to scold people for not doing enough.
Which will we want to vote for in November -- the cheerleader or the scold? Perhaps it depends on Democrats managing to convince everyone that they're joining together in scolding that other guy.
“That "keep going" is confusing. We are supposed to be staying home, which is the opposite of going.”
It’s obvious he means to keep going on with the social distancing.
"We see it in states like Oregon, CA and WA where they immediately closed things down. The models are changing to reflect the success of mitigation efforts."
The models are changing because the lying weasels who make the models are changing them. The decline in hospitalizations in Oregon took place well before the lockdown could have had any effect.
It's all over, except for the economic disaster
“Trump and all the other crisis management folks are saying, convinced even, that the program or regime of social distancing and staying at home is working. It's worth the pain of 16 million unemployed because substantially fewer will become sick and die.
Who can prove him wrong?”
So does this make you respect Trump more or less? Still going to vote for him? Or are his followers going to turn on him?
Inga thread, I see.
“Yes the models have been all wrong all along, just like they always are. Fauci and Birx - and Gates - have helped to wreck our economy. No one is going to like where we end up when all this is done. Failed businesses, massive unemployment. Worse than the Great Depression. I wonder what they will name this one?”
Wow, really? Trump sure must’ve been a big dummy for believing them. Eh?
The models are changing to reflect the success of mitigation efforts.
That's simply not true. The models that predicted 1000,000 to 200,000 deaths by April 15 already assumed full lock-down. We never did get to a national order for all people to stay home so the actual numbers should have been higher than the models predicted.
But I'm guessing that will be the talking points of the Dems and media. They heroically convinced Trump to shut things down and they saved tens of thousands of lives.
“Howard
I have been telling the Covidiot denialists that their theory requires Trump to be a dupe, since he supports distancing and restrictions, and they howl. Jupiter might just have missed the daily briefing.”
I really can’t help but laugh at the reaction by Trump supporters to Trump actually doing something right for a change.
“That's simply not true.”
That simply IS true. We see with our own eyes what the mitigation policies have done. For once when it counts to believe your own president, you people don’t. So backwards.
“They heroically convinced Trump to shut things down and they saved tens of thousands of lives.”
The scientists did and Democrats are science enthusiasts. Trumpists aren't. What a dilemma this must be for you folks. Makes me chuckle.
Jupiter said... Actually, Howard is just a troll, albeit a very good one, but i think Ken B is sincere.
Ken B is sincerely histrionic and does not comprehend statistics. His death rate projections have been way way over the top.
The number of people exposed to the coronavirus is most certainly far far greater than the recorded number of cases. We need to find ways to estimate that number. (It is the denominator that Ken B does not comprehend). If the analysis of fecal material in sewage systems turns out to be a legitimate tool, the actual COVID-19 death rate will be minuscule.
“The way it ends is the numbers come in below all these ridiculous models, Trump declares victory and takes credit. Newsome declares victory and takes credit in California.”
Trump declares victory and trumpets his wiseness of following the scientists’ advice on social distancing.
“And liberals continue to walk around in a hazy fog of unreality wondering what happened?”
We know exactly what happened. We know social distancing mitigated the number of people being infected and of people dying in a short span of time. I’d say the haze was in denialist’s brains. It must be difficult hearing Trump say that the scientists were right all along and social distancing worked.
In case you didn't click on Jupiter's Oregon link, worth reading in its entirety, lays bare the syndrome across the states--the gross overestimations, the continued downward adjustments, the positive results before and independent of shutdowns, the CYA nature of the state overreaction, etc. etc. Useful to include in The Reckoning. Apologies for length.
---
"it’s mathematically impossible that the surge happens here in Oregon 16 days from now, and I will lay it out for you the way I laid it out for him:
Oregon went into “shelter at home” mode on March 23, based on an order from our Governor Kate Brown. Generally speaking, people who become infected with COVID-19 make it to the hospital (for the small minority of people who need to go to the hospital) 10-13 days AFTER they get infected with COVID-19. Since there is simply no doubt that Governor Brown’s shelter at home order has reduced the rate of transmission, that means the peak hospitalization time should be 10-13 days AFTER the shelter at home order was given, possibly sooner, but really no later. Why anyone with a brain would think the peak would happen one MONTH after a shelter at home order was given is beyond me, it simply makes no sense, because of the time between exposure and hospitalization for almost all cases.
The argument I made in my previous post, that’s even more true today, is that all the numbers showing how hospitalizations (the key leading indicator of where we are in the cycle of COVID-19’s viral arc) were declining before Governor Brown’s March 23 order.
Knowing the shelter at home order happened on March 23, how in the hell can the surge take place in late April? It can’t, it already happened
The problem has always been the models, time for Governor Brown to think independently
This is probably going to shock you even more than what I just showed you. As I explained in my last post, the reason so many Governors locked down their states is because they were presented with data by the IHME that showed extreme death levels if lockdowns didn't happen. Frankly, if I’d been presented with the IHME’s data I probably would have locked down Oregon, too. Here’s the problem: their data has proven to be disastrously wrong, and has overestimated death and hospitalization rates by 5-10x, which means they have been off by roughly 500-1,000%, which basically means their data has been useless. The press has finally started talking about this incredible whiff by the IHME, even though it’s been clear for a couple of weeks."
Jupiter
That's an interesting article. The IHME model is only one that people talk about a lot, but it’s not the only model in use. It is the one projecting that late peak. The real problem with IHME is that it’s not based on epidemiological models, and is just curve fitting to observed data. This means thatit will not react quickly to changing local conditions. The curve is determined too much by prior readings taken before any change. It sounds like social distancing was being voluntarily adapted and slowing spread even before the lockdown orders. The model does not pick that up.
So indeed the IHME model is probably inadequate for Oregon, because they have been doing, in Trump's words, a good job.
Oregon analysis, part 2:
"The IHME keeps revising their numbers downward, so I'm not going to post their Oregon data from several weeks ago, I’m going to post what’s in their model right now, but I’m just not sure you’re ready to see it, because it’s going to make you sick to your stomach, so I will start with this little preamble first:
The IHME Data For Oregon: Mind-blowing
People mistakenly think our entire state is on lockdown and catapulting towards economic disaster in order to PREVENT people from EVER having COVID-19, and that’s simply untrue and unrealistic. The truth for any new virus is that most people will be exposed to it because, well, we live in a society. If your goal is to NEVER get COVID-19, you’d pretty much need to live on lockdown for the rest of your life. The ONLY reason for the lockdown is to manage the flow of people through our hospitals so that those who have acute symptoms will get the care they need to hopefully not die. That’s it, it’s that simple. We don’t want to overwhelm the hospital system at any one time.
So, you’re now being told by Oregon’s leaders and newspapers to expect the surge in 2 weeks and that your sacrifices are not in vain, so what does the model now say that Governor Brown and the OHA are using to stick with this lockdown recommendation? You have to see it to believe it! To be clear: the below image is the IHME’s model today just for the state of Oregon.
Note: This model is dead wrong (our peak has passed) and still only shows less than 1/10th hospital utilization on peak day.
I have used this article and my previous post to argue that any peak for COVID-19 has not only ALREADY HAPPENED, but it was actually happening before Governor Brown’s lockdown order of March 23rd. Moreover, even if you accept the highly faulty model that Governor Brown is using that has never been right, even on our worst day it shows that our hospitals will barely be stretched with a forecast usage of 8.6% of current capacity.
In Conclusion
COVID-19 is a serious illness for a very small subset of people exposed to the virus. In the real world, we can’t keep people from getting exposed to new viruses forever, but we can make sure they have the best chance for survival by having access to proper medical care. In Oregon, the natural arc of the COVID-19 virus was already on the decline before Governor Brown’s order on March 23rd that shut down our economy and cost hundreds of thousands of Oregonians their jobs. Now we see that even with the faulty models she’s using that have always overestimated the numbers, the surge in Oregon will be a non-event."
“Which will we want to vote for in November -- the cheerleader or the scold?”
Except that there are Trumpists who are upset that Trump “bought” the scientists theories bout social distancing and that he is actually cheering on the scientists and the people who believed them, that would exclude quite a few of you denialists.
Inga said ... We know social distancing mitigated the number of people being infected and of people dying in a short span of time. I’d say the haze was in denialist’s brains.
I do not doubt that social distancing mitigated the spread of the coronavirus. However, we may never know to what extent. Does it have a trivial effect, a moderate effect or a very strong effect? That is likely to be a moot point.
Do not conflate infection with "people dying". We do not know what the mortality rate is. We do know with simple logic (see my post above) that today's estimated rate is at the extreme range. It may turn out that the Wuhan coronavirus was highly contagious, but not much more deadly than seasonal flu.
These are realists points, not those of a denialist.
A frequent commentator makes the bold assertion:
We know social distancing mitigated the number of people being infected and of people dying in a short span of time.
Tell us how many times our country has employed government lockdowns and social distancing to combat viral epidemics since the Spanish Flu of 1918. This would include AIDS, West Nile, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika and the flu every year that kills about 40,000 Americans.
This may seem an impertinent question. But I humbly ask based on the Infectious Disease Mortality data in this paper, Armstrong et al, JAMA (1999).
No need to rush! We have plenty of time to sort this out.
“Ken B ... His death rate projections have been way way over the top.”
Ken B has not made a single death rate projection. He has argued that the proper response must recognize the risk of very bad outcomes and take them seriously. He has only ever referred to possible death rates.
The only numerical prediction he has made is that the death rate by April 15 would exceed Ward's estimate for the entire duration of the epidemic, viz 7500 deaths total. That rather trivial prediction has been borne out.
The Very Forgetful Inga: "Except that there are Trumpists who are upset that Trump “bought” the scientists theories bout social distancing and that he is actually cheering on the scientists and the people who believed them, that would exclude quite a few of you denialists."
Except you have said the entirety of the Trump voter base are cultists who never deviate from their leader.
Dems also say that republicans reject "science"...yet you now say Trump is supporting "the scientists" views and Trumps polling numbers with republicans happens to be increasing.
So, in just about a paragraph or so, Inga helpfully obliterated her talking points from the last 5 years.
The good news for Inga?
Tomorrow she wont remember this happened at all.
Btw, I sure hope Carter Page's russian handlers didnt spread this virus, right Inga?
LOL
Praise in public. Criticize in private. Every introductory class in leadership. It's truly amazing how many leaders can't get that basic simple easy to understand lesson down.
Trump has it down pat. He does criticize Democrats in public. But then, they aren't his employees, nor the people he works for. Which would be pro-America Americans. Democrats have proven they're not pro-American.
Jimmy Carter, USNA graduate, never took that basic lesson to heart. Hence: one term. Criticizing your voters doesn't work well.
Ken B said ... Ken B has not made a single death rate projection... The only numerical prediction he has made is that the death rate by April 15 would exceed Ward's estimate for the entire duration of the epidemic, viz 7500 deaths total. That rather trivial prediction has been borne out.
Since you like to refer to yourself in the third person let Francisco D say that last night, Ken B proposed Italy as a model for figuring out the US death rate.
When Francisco read your last post, he started to wonder if you know the difference between:
1. Deaths
2. Death Rates.
Convince Francisco D that Ken B understands.
grinding metal, you've blown the transaxle
I have thought for a long time that with poster's like Inga, Professor Althouse should rename her blog: Anne's Nuthouse!
It is a bad sign when you start discussing yourself in the third person.
Trump is setting up the next step - we have done a great job controlling it, now follow me and let's do a great job in re-opening the economy and in moving forward. MAGA!
Trump is almost guaranteed re-election unless the Democrats nominate someone other than Joe Biden
Partially true. If Trump gets the economy back on its feet before election day he will win against any opponent.
“The only numerical prediction he has made is that the death rate by April 15 would exceed Ward's estimate for the entire duration of the epidemic, viz 7500 deaths total. That rather trivial prediction has been borne out.”
Yeah and he was off by just a wee bit, eh?
“Trump is setting up the next step - we have done a great job controlling it”... thanks to the scientists and the people who believed them.
Death is the most feared enemy. So the attacking Dems rigged the Models to predict a tsunami of deaths and then they rigged the cause of death Stats to make their wrap up smear. Yet through through the night our Trump President was still there.
Sebastian: good analysis (from an Oregonian), thanks. About three days ago, someone on the local news observed that if we've been successful in bending the curve, why not start easing the restrictions? Gov. Brown's response was the she "wants to see 10 days to two weeks" of no Covid-19 deaths. I certainly hope that someone helps her to see the futility of that metric. We should begin targeted re-opening once we're at a point that our health systems are not overwhelmed.
Right now would be appropriate.
“Death is the most feared enemy. So the attacking Dems rigged the Models to predict a tsunami of deaths and then they rigged the cause of death Stats to make their wrap up smear.”
Yet, Trump believed them. Was he duped? Why, if he is such a stable genius, would he fall for such a hoax?!
“Yet through through the night our Trump President was still there.”
Indeed he is and it’s good to see him doing something right!
"We should begin targeted re-opening once we're at a point that our health systems are not overwhelmed.
Right now would be appropriate."
no no no. you missed the shifting of the goal posts. The original point was to flatten the curve to prevent shortages of ICU beds etc.
Now it's until there's no more infections.
It's almost as if the governors and petty bureaucrats love their newfound power and the democrats/media establishment want to force a great depression to get trump out of office. Because otherwise, they would stick to their original, more sensible (if still arguable) position.
Trump loves to announce that people are doing a great job.
PDT is a well read student of history and of mankind:
As quoted in A History of Warfare (1968) by Bernard Montgomery, 1st Viscount Montgomery of Alamein: "Sir Winston Churchill once told me of a reply made by the Duke of Wellington, in his last years, when a friend asked him: "If you had your life over again, is there any way in which you could have done better?" The old Duke replied: "Yes, I should have given more praise."
Or more simply and recently, in the words of Jack Aubrey:
Praise if ever you can; you will find it answer wonderfully. (Patrick O'Brian, The Hundred Days)
JML: "Trump is setting up the next step - we have done a great job controlling it, now follow me and let's do a great job in re-opening the economy and in moving forward. MAGA!"
JML, Inga "forgot" to include the bolded part when she "quoted" you.
"Gov. Brown's response was the she "wants to see 10 days to two weeks" of no Covid-19 deaths."
Yes, and I would like to see Governor Brown swinging from a lamppost.
I guess Igna is right. Trump fell for the Leftist's lies, so we're all going to have to lose the MAGA hats and vote for Sleepy Joe Biden. Later, guys, it was fun.
"the attacking Dems rigged the Models to predict a tsunami"
Can you say hoax? Epidemiology collusion?
No, I'm not saying that. Ferguson in the UK is dishonest, but IMHE and Fauci/Birx tried to be straight shooters. But their weaponry was way off, and they didn't correct for their biases. Then eager politicians used the "models" to overreact and tank the economy.
The trade-offs include up to about 8 trillion of excess government spending in two months, a loss of 3-6 trillion dollars of economic activity, and at least one-fifth of the working age population unemployed.
Add on loss of taxes collected by states and municipalities that were already unlikely to pay their currently promised benefits to former/current workers. That is gone forever. There will be PBGC claims made in further trillions after municipal BKs.
Add on the losses of retirement balances for those nearing retirement age.
The economic illiterate will never understand how terrible their preferred strategy will prove to be.
"Fauci/Birx tried to be straight shooters".
Funny you would put it that way. You didn't see the video of Fauci making his little "way-to-go" hand signs to the Fake News reporter, did you.
Inga: "Yet, Trump believed them. Was he duped? Why, if he is such a stable genius, would he fall for such a hoax?!"
Trump has been a little busy over the last 4 years fighting your constant barrage of non-stop lies and hoaxes and so, in my opinion, this pandemic scenario is not one that fit neatly into Trump's comfort zone as far as reading people, situations and making aggressive moves.
In the same way that Trump allowed the deep staters and its cheerleaders, like Inga, significant wiggle room in the first 18 months of his presidency as they advanced their collusion lies, Trump got a handle on that and adapted.
It will be the same way here when we are clear of this "crisis" moment. I predict that sometime after November, Dr Fauci will find himself available for other employment opportunities. No doubt the Gates Foundation, with its preference for 1 world government, will be waiting with open arms. After all Dr Fauci certainly played his role. His astonishing downplaying of HCQ at the very moment nations across the globe were stocking up to use it will stand out later on as one of the more "interesting" questions to be looked into.
We are almost to 16,000 dead from COVID-19 and almost 16,000,000 unemployed by it. If history says we will have about 20 deaths from suicide/overdose/alcohol for every 1 million unemployed per annum then we can reasonably expect the result to be almost 32 million excess deaths from these causes this year. Because possibly 20 thousand people MIGHT get the virus and die.
And if we come in at the lower range of a set of numbers and they say mitigation "worked" then they are only saying it worked to keep us from the higher number given, not from the unrevised original pie-in-the-sky numbers the stupid models gave us. You must use the data within range, otherwise you're just bullshitting.
That's what leadership is all about. You praise those who are doing well publicly while disciplining the backsliders privately - though Trump tends to damn the backsliders in public as well!
Sewage analysis by MIT indicates that there's at least 100k infected in a part Massachusetts alone. That would suggest the infection rate and mortality rate are much much lower than what's been presented so far.
Trump is digusting.
Oh how I long for the days of Obama and his daily lectures about how much we disappointed him with our racism and our islamophobia and lgbtophobia and climate changeophobia and ummm the Crusades...
Sigh. THAT was leadership.
There is no "science" for covid. It's new, and it's difficult to gather information about it because China lies and because there were no tests available for quite awhile and because still there are not enough tests. And so any case can be made. But even if there is no science, there is still the scientific method where you try hypotheses against data and are open-minded and ready to change your mind. Trump allied himself to medical people who were trained to use the scientific method in this unprecedented situation. If he had not been seen as doing that God only knows what would have happened in the way of panicky behavior. Advisers advised him to ban flights from China, to start social distancing, and finally to lockdown and he followed their advice making sure it was well publicized. And people followed him, Democrats included because the advice came from Trump and from medical leaders and it led to comprehensible action. As the data changes, so will the advice Trump is getting - that's the strength of the scientific method. Naturally, the medical advisers who will be responsible if we reopen too early and a hot spot forms and kills thousands are cautious about how they interpret the curve flat-lining. But still, in business "great job" means "job over." And, "keep going", I interpret as "the lockdown won't change tomorrow" or in a sudden obvious way. It will percolate over Easter when people wouldn't be working anyway.
Known Unknown: "Sewage analysis by MIT indicates that there's at least 100k infected in a part Massachusetts alone. That would suggest the infection rate and mortality rate are much much lower than what's been presented so far."
That MIT team is about to find out what its like when you go against the prevailing lefty narrative.
And they are in Boston too........tsk tsk. It won't be pretty.
Keep up the good work, daughter.
Keep up the good work, son.
Trump the executive, the grandfather, and the father, too.
"Jimmy Carter, USNA graduate"
Not fair. He did a shortened syllabus because of WWII
"You didn't see the video of Fauci making his little "way-to-go" hand signs to the Fake News reporter, did you."
I did not.
Of course, cynical conservative that I am, I also had low expectations. In that light, the briefings I have seen were relatively free from anti-Trump gesturing (apart from the MSM, naturally)
For me, one take-away from those briefings, the first time I listened to him at some length, is that Trump is actually a careful operator, balancing the politics and the media and the economy and the epidemiology and the immediate healthcare concerns. He understands everybody's game, including, I think, "expertise" as a kind of game. He's the dungeon master.
Mike (MJB Wolf) said ... "...almost 16,000,000 unemployed by it. If history says we will have about 20 deaths from suicide/overdose/alcohol for every 1 million unemployed per annum then we can reasonably expect the result to be almost 32 million excess deaths from these causes this year."
Whoa there, tiger. 20 / 1,000,000 x 16,000,000 = 320. Not 32 million (and really, if the cause is unemployment, how could the number of deaths be twice the number originally unemployed?)
I don't disagree with the sentiment that the cure may be more dangerous than the disease, but I can't let the bad math slip by and damage the argument.
“... Trump is almost guaranteed re-election unless the Democrats nominate someone other than Joe Biden”
Not sure I can agree with this. To win I think Trump has to win FL, and right now things in FL are very bad and getting worse economically. The travel/leisure/restaurant business there is huge, larger than anywhere else, and right now it is all shut down. Disney, Universal, other theme parks, hotels, restaurants, golf resorts - everything. That’s more than half a million jobs so far. Now the layoffs are spilling over into other industries. FL is a huge agricultural producer of fresh fruits and vegetables for the eastern US, but especially for these industries. Farms that supply grocers and and consumer food processors are doing OK, but a lot of these farms are tied to supply chains to fee all these resorts, restaurant chains, cruise ships, etc. There are entire farms whose only customer is Disney. Right now, millions of dollars of fresh produce are rotting in the fields as there is no where for it to go. Many of these farmers face financial ruin if this doesn’t turn around. I think we only have a few weeks, maybe not that long, to get the country’s economy opened up again. If not, FL is in dire straits, and Trump will take the blame, along with Gov DeSantis.
Ooops. Thank you, Calypso. That decimal point did move a little too far.
Especially since many progs were part of the pro-panic faction, and of course insisted on following "the experts," they are gonna have trouble getting their talking points straight.
Here's one way to finesse it: Trump was right, cuz he mostly said what progs said and mostly followed the experts, but he still lied, cuz he "inflated" projections.
"MSNBC’s Chris Hayes Floats Conspiracy That Trump Admin Inflated Death Projections to Take ‘Victory Lap’ When Final Total Was Lower"
Crafty, those progs.
Drago said...
JML, Inga "forgot" to include the bolded part when she "quoted" you.
She has grown up on fake news, and fully embraces it...
"Trump loves to announce that people are doing a great job"? As in:
- Peter Alexander, White House correspondent at NBC News, asked the president: “What do you say to Americans, who are watching you right now, who are scared?” Erupting in anger, Trump unleashed a tirade: “I say that you’re a terrible reporter. That’s what I say. I think it’s a very nasty question and I think it’s a very bad signal that you’re putting out to the American people.”
- Trump to ABC News reporter Cecilia Vega.: "She's shocked I picked her, she's in a state of shock”
Reporter: “I'm not, thank you Mr. President”
Trump: "I know you're not thinking, you never do”
Reporter: "I'm sorry?"
Trump: "Go ahead"
- "You talk about somebody that's a loser," Trump said of April Ryan, a White House correspondent for American Urban Radio Networks who is African American. "She doesn't know what the hell she's doing."
@gadfly:
Trump loves to point out when people are doing a good job. He also loves to point out when his enemies are doing a bad job.
So?
I note you didn't actually try to claim any of his attacks were false, or invalid
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