April 29, 2020

"There are only different hellish ways to adapt to a pandemic and save both lives and livelihoods. I raise Sweden..."

"... not because I think it has found the magic balance — it is way too soon to tell — but because I think we should be debating all the different ways and costs of acquiring immunity. When I look across America, though, and see governors partly lifting lockdowns — because they feel their people just can’t take it anymore for economic or psychological reasons, even though their populations have little or no immunity — I worry we may end up developing more herd immunity but in a painful, deadly, costly, uncoordinated way that still leaves room for the coronavirus to strike hard again and overwhelm hospitals.... Herd immunity 'has historically been nature’s way of ending pandemics,' added Dr. David Katz, the public health physician.... 'We need to bend with her forces...' That means a designed strategy, based on risk profiles, of phasing back to work those least vulnerable, so we gradually cultivate the protection of herd immunity — 'while concentrating our health services and social services on protecting those most vulnerable' until we can sound the all-clear."

From "Is Sweden Doing It Right?/The Swedes aren’t battling the coronavirus with broad lockdowns" by Thomas Friedman (in the NYT).

98 comments:

daskol said...

Obligatory Tom Friedman loves the way China gets things done reminder.

Temujin said...

But...we're well past the point of coordinating that now. And how do you think it would have been accepted for debate if Trump or his team had suggested doing what Sweden was doing?

They would have demanded his head. Again. And Thomas Friedman and his team at the NYT would have been among the largest megaphones raising hell over this.

At this point we have to let the states run their course.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

Is Sweden doing it right?"

Here, there could be no "doing it right" no matter what the course of action

...because Trump.

Have we not demonstrated during past epidemics/outbreaks what we tolerate/accept without drastic lockdown measures?

etbass said...

"That means a designed strategy, based on risk profiles, of phasing back to work those least vulnerable.."

That's it. Issue corona cards like draft cards a few years ago. !A means you are good to go. No restrictions. 4F means you can't leave your house; food must be brought in; no visitors. And so on. All establishments are open but you gotta have the right card to use it.

Mark said...

There is learned helplessness, which I think explains a lot of rank-and-file Dems. And then there is intentional helplessness and defeatism, which explains the Dem establishment.

Automatic_Wing said...

This lockdown must be especially tough on Friedman, since it's impeding his ability to travel to exotic lands and speak to imaginary cab drivers.

YoungHegelian said...

I worry we may end up developing more herd immunity but in a painful, deadly, costly, uncoordinated way that still leaves room for the coronavirus to strike hard again and overwhelm hospitals.

I'm betting there's already major herd immunity out there. See for example, this story on studies done at four prisons that show yuuuuuge rates of asymptomatic exposure among the prison population. COVID has been with us a while.

I also love the Debbie Downers out there who are worried that antibodies from previous infection won't confer immunity. Guess what, Miz Downer --- if antibodies from exposure won't confer immunity, we ain't gonna have no vaccine in the future. How do you think vaccines work except by the stimulating the body to create antibodies?

whitney said...

We are chasing famine. We've had it too good for too long.

I'm Not Sure said...

Sounds almost like someone who is afraid to let people go back to their lives in order to not have to find out his preferred plan wasn't needed and that trying to force it on people fucked up the lives of millions of them.

Inga said...

Only time will tell. So far...

“One thing the Times neglects to report is that Sweden has a much higher fatality rate than its Scandiavian neighbors. Adjusted per capita, Sweden has a death rate more than six times higher than Norway and Finland. Compared to Denmark, Sweden’s death rate is three times higher.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-fatality-rate-how-sweden-compares-to-its-scandinavian-neighbors/

Mark said...

With covid antibody tests showing that the actual number of people infected with disease is 15-30 times higher than the confirmed tests, such that the fatality percentage is much much lower, the Washington Post is reporting that this shows that the disease is more deadly.

Amadeus 48 said...

Friedman has finally gotten where I was five weeks ago.

Could this ever have worked in the USA? The Demmies would have showered Trump with abuse, as the Swedes are being showered with abuse in Europe. The corporate media would have jumped in and Trump’s approval would have gone to 5%.

However, we will get herd immunity (remember when Althouse objected to the term for some humanistic reason?) when we do. I guess one good thing about the shelter in place orders is that they appear not to have substantially slowed the spread of the virus. The one bad thing is that they have wrecked the economy.

There is no situation in life that government (“the things we do together”) cannot make worse.

Mark said...

Debbie Downers out there who are worried that antibodies from previous infection won't confer immunity

Assuming for the sake of the argument that the antibodies do not confer absolute immunity to prevent getting the disease at all, they conveniently do not ask if those same antibodies may nevertheless reduce the severity of any subsequent infection.

Mark said...

Invested in failure and defeat as if they hope to gain from higher deaths.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

Make Antibodies Great Again

Psota said...

Herd immunity was the plan in Britain...for about five minutes...until that Imperial College model miraculously appeared and scared the pants off of everybody.

Trump and most of the governors have been doing their given the conflicting predictive models and the unpredictable path of the virus.

Bad faith political activists in media, Congress, the states and everywhere in between have been nipping at Trump and the GOP gov's every step of the way, bitching and moaning about every move Trump has made and not made.

It was his fault the guy drank fish tank cleaner!

The real lesson is we should not listen to the hysterics next time.

n.n said...

The goal is to mitigate progress of damage and collateral damage caused by the viral and social contagion.

Birkel said...

Thomas Friedman loves him some Chinese authoritarianism.
One party rule is cool.

That dude is the George Costanza weathervane.

n.n said...

It was his fault the guy drank fish tank cleaner!

Ostensibly, it was his choice to consume the cocktail, but it was her Choice to administer it without his knowledge. Next time, they should try HCQ+AZ, available with prescription, or another medical disinfectant.

Shouting Thomas said...

The Democratic Party is allied with the Chicoms.

This is a continuation of the coup attempt against Trump.

They're doing it for our own good, because we should be scared and only they can rescue us.

The Atlantic signaled the long term goal with its recent article advocating Chinese style censorship of the internet.

We're at war with China. The Dems are on the side of the Chinese.

This series of panics that the Democrats have inflicted on us are deliberate and planned. It's a psyops campaign directed at U.S. voters.

Drago said...

Psota: "The real lesson is we should not listen to the hysterics next time."
4/29/20, 6:59 PM

Inga: "Only time will tell. So far..."
4/29/20, 6:51 PM

Too late.

Charlie Currie said...

I freely admit to stealing this from the comments section of another blog. The commenter updates it every day.

Here’s an update on the Michigan vs Sweden approach to treating CV.

One model is no shut down, no stay at home vs full incarceration.

Key Note: Michigan’s death rate during the past week has gone up while Sweden’s has held to slightly lower.

Michigan had a 26% increase in deaths over the week while Sweden had a 17% increase even though their country has not been locked down.

I wonder why the media doesn’t point this simple fact out?

Answer – It doesn’t fit their narrative!

Michigan:
39,262 Cases & 3,567 Deaths as of 4-29
33,966 Cases & 2,813 Deaths as of 4-22
Strict shut down
10 M Population
Michigan has 12.3% of its population over 65
Median Age – 39.5
Minority % – 21%

Sweden:
18,926 Cases & 2,274 Deaths as of 4-29
16,004 Cases & 1,937 Deaths as of 4-22
No Shut Down
10.2M Population
Sweden has 20,3% of its Population over 65
Median Age – 41.4
Foreign Immigrant % – 24%

Charlie Currie said...

I'm curious. Is there any data regarding people who got the regular old flu earlier this season and then got the chicom wuhan plague? I haven't seen anything about double dipping.

I heard/read that people who take hydroxychloroquine for other illnesses haven't been getting infected. Don't know if that's true or not. But what about people who have already had the flu?

phantommut said...

"...if antibodies from exposure won't confer immunity, we ain't gonna have no vaccine in the future. How do you think vaccines work except by the stimulating the body to create antibodies?"

Exactly this. BUT... spreading out the load on the health care system was/is a good thing. I've seen reports that the daily death numbers in NYC are 4 times what they were last year. Keeping that from happening on a national scale seems like a good idea.

(Welcome to the world of science and engineering. Those of us who live there understand that to solve a problem you must at least understand the parameters of the problem. That takes time. And there's not even a consensus now, today, that we understand the parameters. To quote one of my professors from Johns Hopkins, "Everything eventually becomes a rates problem." We are now in the second rates problem of this pandemic.)

Shouting Thomas said...

The Democrats/Chicoms have discovered that feeding you panic porn on the internet keeps you in a constant state of terror, anxiety, fear and yearning for some authority to rescue you.

It's a repeat of the story of The Grand Inquisitor.

The first step toward defeating them is to quit believing the panic porn.

chickelit said...

I'm surprised Friedman didn't suggest the Chinese way which is to lie, obfuscate, and otherwise behave like the sneaky fuckers they are.

Bill Peschel said...

Do we have herd immunity against the flu?

Drago said...

It seems like only yesterday when Inga went off on the fake news stories about a supposed deplorable conservative couple consuming chloroquine poison because Fox News and Trump told them it would be okay.

Needless to say, this hoax will go down the same Inga Memory Hole as the literal hundreds of other hoaxes that Inga has had to abandon.

Drago said...

chickelit: "I'm surprised Friedman didn't suggest the Chinese way which is to lie, obfuscate, and otherwise behave like the sneaky fuckers they are."

That's what ARM is for.

stevew said...

Concern trolling by Friedman.

There is so much variety in the outcomes across states and nations that there is effectively no evidence that the lock down regime has any meaningful impact on infection rates and deaths.

Worry all you want Tom.

gilbar said...

i've been in favor of pardoning the american people, and releasing them from their lockdown, but i have to admit, i WAS scared about how it might turn out...

But Now, i find out, that Thomas Friedman* has announced that it will be TERRIBLE, and BAD
Hurray! I can rest easy, knowing that Thomas Friedman is against something; it's the right thing to do


Thomas Friedman* Paid Communist Chinese Operative

William said...

Counterpoised to herd immunity is the herd instinct to run off the cliff together....I don't know if Sweden is right, but I'm glad that they're trying something different. Galileo, Pasteur, et al. resisted going along with the crowd. They're always telling us to think outside of the box, but the apparent exception is this box they've put us in....It's interesting to note that viruses are able to gain traction by mutating, but that human perish if they express deviant opinions.

Mark said...

Do we have herd immunity against the flu?

A lot of people get the flu each year.

A lot of people DON'T get the flu each year despite NOT getting a flu vaccine shot.

As far as I know, I've gotten the flu once in the last 30 years.

Skeptical Voter said...

Where is old Spiro Agnew when you need him? Tom Friedman is obviously the nattering nitwit/nabob of negativity that Spiro warned against.

Mark said...

As far as I know, I've gotten the flu once in the last 30 years.

To clarify, I've had the symptoms of the flu once in that time. Despite others around me having what was likely the flu. So maybe it tried to get a foot hold, but could not and I remained asymptomatic.

If you get the covid officially, but none of the symptoms, does that fallen tree make a sound?

narciso said...

Hezbollah stooge since 1982 when he botched the shatila story, involving a militia leader sami geagea, who was not involved, who got out of prison, a few years because of his Iranian puppets put him there,

Shouting Thomas said...

Remember when the only purpose of the shutdown was the relieve the pressure on those hospitals we knew would be overburdened?

No patient has been denied a bed.

Remember when we were panicked over the lack of those life saving ventilators?

No patient has been denied a ventilator.

Ventilators, it seems, don't save lives. They're a death sentence.

Notice a pattern?

Mark said...

Pattern?

A month or so ago, they were saying there would be a million dead.

Then facts intervened and it has been shown it will be far less.

Then in recent days, they are saying there will be a million dead. How? Why? Because, that's how.

Clyde said...

It comes down to this: We shut down the economy for a month and a half to "flatten the curve" and prevent our hospitals and medical system from being overwhelmed, as well as to buy time to allow American industry to replenish the stocks of PPE that were used up in the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu epidemic and never replaced by the Obama administration. We have accomplished both of those goals.

Shutting down the economy on a temporary basis is like requiring someone to swim through a long, flooded hallway to get to the other side. How long can you hold your breath? Some will make it through, some will drown. The longer we make the hallway, the more businesses will drown, with all of the collateral damage that incurs to the overall economy.

We have had over a million confirmed cases and almost 60,000 deaths. That is tragic. However, in a country of 330 million, even a million cases means that 99.7% of the population doesn't have a confirmed case. Even if there were 10 unconfirmed and asymptomatic cases for every confirmed one, that would mean that that around 97% of the country is unaffected. When you add in the fact that about 45% of the cases are in the New York City metropolitan area, you have to figure that it's time to end the lockdown in most places (outside of New York and other hot spots) and allow Americans to get back to their lives with reasonable precautions.

In the places which don't allow that, expect to see more and more noncompliance with the edicts of the elites, as the rest of the people start treating stay-at-home orders like speed limits.

Inga said...

“It seems like only yesterday when Inga went off on the fake news stories about a supposed deplorable conservative couple consuming chloroquine poison because Fox News and Trump told them it would be okay.”

Only in your brain. I haven’t opined on the fish tank lady and her husband.

Jersey Fled said...

Summer is coming - the bane of all flus.

Birx said in an interview on Fox that she expects both cases and deaths to be down "dramatically" by the end od May.

According to rt.live, R is below 1.0 in 42 of the 50 states.

Fauci said today that trails with remdesivir have shown it to be effective against cv-19.

Hospitals have not been overwhelmed. We have months to prepare for a second wave and are light years ahead of where we were in January.

GDP was down less than 5% in the first quarter. It will be down even more in the 2nd quarter, but this is not Depression territory.

On the other hand, DeBlasio is still the mayor of New York.

Jon Burack said...

It is beyond me how journalists like Friedman convince themselves they have some knowledge or some authority to recommend how to deal with this problem. Friedman knows nothing about how to micromanage the controlled spread of immunity while avoiding a new surge in cases. NO one knows that. But he has no ground on which to pretend even to an intelligent guess about it. We do know now from several studies that the virus has likely infected a very huge number of people not showing up in confirmed cases statistics. No one really knows how huge that actual cases number is, or what it really means regarding the even larger share of people not showing antibodies or symptoms of the disease at all. The faith of people like Friedman is in top down micromanaged planning nonetheless. Why? Because what really gives with him, and too many like him, is a faith in the 'RIGHT SORT' and their opinions, of which he fancies himself the spokesman.

Drago said...

Inga: "Only in your brain. I haven’t opined on the fish tank lady and her husband."

You misspelled Democrat donors and accused murderer.

Be better.

Lucien said...

ST:
If you listen kinda carefully & between the lines it seems like some people are now suggesting that the idea of depriving people of liberty and the pursuit of freedom is to flatten the curve until there is a cure or vaccine.

Lance said...

even though their populations have little or no immunity

How does he know that? Anecdotal evidence suggests this virus has spread much farther than expected.

To me this is the problem with "opinion" pieces in the NYT and other properties: so much of what these opiners "know" just isn't knowable.

Lucien said...

Happiness, not freedom, oops.

Drago said...

It seems like only yesterday Inga continued to push the Trump said to inject disinfectants hoax.

So many collapsing hoaxes for Inga...and all at the same time.

Its gotta be difficult to handle.

Thoughts and prayers are probably needed.

And just wait till we get definitive proof that Flynn was set up by the dems.....

.....oops! We already did!

In their very own handwritten notes.

Thats a nice touch, wouldnt you say?

Psota said...

Forget here immunity for a minute...how about a Friedman-esque conversation about Americans' willingness to "muscle through" very contagious illness like the flu?

The flu season doesn't have to be so bad that 60,000 people die from it in one year. But there seems to be this ethos that kids go to school sick, people go to work sick, old people go to unhealthy disease vectors like airplanes and churches and whatever.

seems like if we can change that, that would be a good thing.

Jupiter said...

"I think we should be debating all the different ways and costs of acquiring immunity."

1 - Exposure to the virus.
2 - Unicorn farts.

I vote for the farts. That virus sounds like it could be dangerous.

Jupiter said...

Left entirely unspoken throughout this entire months-long descent into utter madness, panic and idiocy, is the possibility that most of us are just plain immune already. The best data are still those from the Diamond Princess. Most people on board (82%) did not get the virus. Why not?

Ken B said...

Young Hegelian
The uncertainty is not if antibodies confer immunity, but if it persists. There are vaccines which confer decades long immunity, and other which need to be regularly renewed with booster shots.
There is unclear data from SARS, The titer of antibodies was almost 0 after a year and a half, but subjects showed a heightened resistance still.
There is no reason to believe that antibodies in recovered won’t confer immunity while they last.

Anonymous said...

No doubt the thoughts of Sweden came to Friedman as he drove his Lexus past the olive trees of Manhattan.

cubanbob said...

Pace Inga and several others here Dr. Trump's drug cocktail actually works. A friend of mine who is a pulmonologist working in a Covid ICU contracted the virus. He is in his late fifties, took the drug cocktail shook it off just fine without severe symptoms because he took it early. Another pariente ( extended family) guy who is a senior nurse and teacher at a Bronx hospital ( and a Never Trumper) also contracted the virus and did not take the cocktail and came down with a severe case of the virus. My daughters in laws in Long Island ( five people) came down with the virus ( no youngsters) took the cocktail early and suffered mild symptoms. I know, anecdote. But eventually enough anecdote becomes proof of evidence.

Inga said...

Cubanbob, whatever works is fine with me.

I Callahan said...

I also love the Debbie Downers out there who are worried that antibodies from previous infection won't confer immunity. Guess what, Miz Downer --- if antibodies from exposure won't confer immunity, we ain't gonna have no vaccine in the future. How do you think vaccines work except by the stimulating the body to create antibodies?

This is a great point. And I'm one of those who doesn't think a vaccine will happen any time soon, herd immunity or not.

I think the lockdowns have just prolonged the inevitable. If it's that contagious, then you're going to catch it anyway. Let's just get it over with.

Bay Area Guy said...

@Jersey Fled:

Birx said in an interview on Fox that she expects both cases and deaths to be down "dramatically" by the end od May.

Birx is ok, kinda of a weasel, kinda not.

She is relying on the IMHE numbers, which show that Covid-19 deaths peaked about 2 weeks ago, and will flatline at a low level about May 10 or May 11. Source: IMHE Covid-19 Model

This shitstorm is over soon.

Time to reopen!

cubanbob said...

Another Democrat scandal: California Governor rushed a no-bid contract to buy a couple of hundred of million masks from a Chinese electric car manufacturer who is losing money and in which Warren Buffett is an investor. A billion dollar deal with the money wired to China in advance. It's time the US DoJ starts rigorous prosecution of public corruption and the President banning all federal funds to California. Everyone involved in this needs to go to prison including Buffet if he is involved.

cubanbob said...

Blogger Inga said...
Cubanbob, whatever works is fine with me."

Glad to hear it! Never let one's political views get in the way of medical treatment that has a believable basis.

cubanbob said...

Blogger Inga said...
Cubanbob, whatever works is fine with me."

Glad to hear it! Never let one's political views get in the way of medical treatment that has a believable basis.

Luke Lea said...

He is so pompous.

cubanbob said...

The obvious flaw with the logic of bending the curve to preserve ICU space for Covid 19 virus is now open to all who wish to see. Hospitals are losing money by the bucket and many may fail because of this. In Miami Dade County which is/was also hotspot for Covid 19, the hospitals ICUs were running at 60% capacity. Normally they run near full capacity. How many deaths have occured because people were to terrified by the media and politicians to go to the ER? The reasons for people going to the ER and need admission for serious or life threatening conditions has not magically disappeared. The suspension of elective surgery has cost tremendous suffering and a number of deaths that was entirely preventable. A number of doctors are going to have to close their practices because of the hysteria. Then the horrific unemployment and the astronomical debt incurred to soften the blow. All of this entirely avoidable. While Trump as president has to take his share of the responsibility let's not kid ourselves the media led hysteria aided and abetted by the Left and the Democrats bear the bulk of the blame. Schiff, Pelosi and Schumer had the same access to the virus information at the same time that Trump did but chose to impeach Trump. They also played the fake outrage when Trump put his China travel ban in place. They have done absolutely nothing to help the country. Now Congress is going out of session and getting paid while the country burns. On balance it appears the Swedes are right. Who would've thunk the Swedish welfare statist are more sensible that the ostensibly capitalist Democrats and their house propagandist MSM.

JackWayne said...

“ I worry we may end up developing more herd immunity but in a painful, deadly, costly, uncoordinated way that still leaves room for the coronavirus to strike hard again and overwhelm hospitals...” What Katz is arguing is that flattening the curve is both desirable and impossible. He’s not a doctor, he’s a bureaucrat. And ALL bureaucrats hate risk. It leaves them open to criticism. It’s better to build herd immunity in a painless, beneficial, cheap and social conditioned way. Enjoy your lockdown serfs! We know what’s best for you.

Skeptical Voter said...

It was not all that long ago that the baying pack of liberal press (sons of bitches all to a man--and woman) were crying that the evil Orange Man just would not "listen to scientists".

Now The Donald has listened to scientists and shut down the economy---or at least encouraged the various state governors and mayors to listen to Dr. Fauci and other scientists--and shut the economy down.

Well he listened to scientists--and as we look at the smoking wreckage of small businesses everywhere, we have to ask ourselves, "Was listening to scientists all that smart?" The country is going to be licking its wounds for quite a while.

bagoh20 said...

Today: For those who think we should listen to the W.H.O.:
"WHO hails Sweden as a 'model' for fighting coronavirus without a lockdown"

"Ryan added, "I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don't have lockdowns."

"Instead of mandating mass closures, Sweden's residents have been advised to maintain social distancing, work from home when possible, and to avoid contact with the elderly. Schools for kids up to the age of 16 remain open, along with restaurants, bars, and shops, according to Newsweek."

"Tegnell says he expects Stockholm, where most of the country's 17,500 coronavirus cases have been reported, will reach herd immunity within "a few weeks' time."

https://www.theblaze.com/news/who-hails-sweden-as-a-model-for-fighting-coronavirus-without-a-lockdown

To put it as simply, Sweden's leaders treated it's people like adults and citizens, and not children, subjects, or chattel.

Ray - SoCal said...

From another article:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/all-is-not-what-it-seems-in-sweden/

>the dead are disproportionately recent immigrants.

In the comments it says the Somalis are still packing the Mosques.

wbfjrr2 said...

Friedman is a bona fide idiot, born with a golden spoon in his mouth but no brain.

Yet NYT employs him and idiot liberals drink up his swill. And Althouse promotes him and the garbage paper he works for.

IdahoFred86 said...

Another point of view:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/all-is-not-what-it-seems-in-sweden/

Also, a week or so ago Sweden had about 150 deaths per million. They are now 244 per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries. USA is currently 186.

DavidUW said...

they're taking the deaths upfront.

we're spreading them out.

bagoh20 said...

Charlie Currie at 7:08 shows us some of the demographic info that I assume many thought would explain Sweden's relative success without lock down. I have been showing just death numbers, but his info shows that Sweden has accomplished what it has with even much tougher demographic challenges than Michigan. The high number of people over 65 is especially challenging, yet they can live like free people.

Kathy said...

About that Imperial College model:
https://www.gatesfoundation.org/How-We-Work/Quick-Links/Grants-Database/Grants/2020/03/OPP1210755

madAsHell said...

Has anyone ever seen Tom Friedman in the same room, and at the same time as always-wrong Paul Krugman??

bagoh20 said...

Deaths/million always goes up, and can never go down, but Sweden's is not going up as fast as many others - much slower than Michigan. And the important thing is that they are doing it without the sacrifices to real things like people's livelihoods and freedoms.

The U.S. as a whole will never be a valid comparison with a small country of 10 million.

Sebastian said...

"That means a designed strategy, based on risk profiles, of phasing back to work those least vulnerable, so we gradually cultivate the protection of herd immunity"

What a concept!

Promoted by the pro-sanity faction here for a long time now, but oh well.

bagoh20 said...

Here in Nevada, if our deaths DOUBLE from where they are now, we will still be well below where the last bad flu season ended in 2018, and it will end up pretty much like a normal flu season. How can we justify not closing down every year after this from now on? What will be the reasoning for not trying to reduce those deaths every single year via shutdown?

Unknown said...

Friedman reasons like a woman

all feelings about stuff he read

ken in tx said...

It seems to me, that if anti-bodies did not counter the virus, and therefore confer immunity, nobody would recover. Everybody who got it would just die, or still have it as a chronic illness. What's the basis for some saying that having survived and developed anti-bodies does not convey future immunity?

Ken B said...

Ken in tx
None. But it is an open question how long that immunity lasts. With some diseases immunity seems to be for life, but with others it fades within a few years.

n.n said...

"That means a designed strategy, based on risk profiles, of phasing back to work those least vulnerable, so we gradually cultivate the protection of herd immunity"

Herd immunity, perhaps. The goal is to deny the virus sanctuary bodies, thereby limiting its viability. This unknown, and proper characterization of its spread, is why risk profiles and mitigation strategies will persist as progressive conditions. So, prudent and bold. Life is an exercise in risk management.

walter said...

Ken B,
The perception given by the media is that the immunity might not be there period, or perhaps not viable for next season...a few months.

Mark said...

What's the basis for some saying that having survived and developed anti-bodies does not convey future immunity?

Politics.

bagoh20 said...

Simple question:

If herd immunity or some other form of just get back to living isn't our strategy, then what is? No species on Earth, especially social ones, ever used social distancing or destroying its own means of support as a successful strategy to survival. I know we are God's chosen ones, but really? You think this is what he had in mind for his first string team. A fraction of a percent casualties and we hide like mice? People, snap out of it. Stop being pussies. You only get one run at this thing, and time is passing us by. Do you really want to be the generation that hid and waited from some boogie man until you died of boredom?

Mark said...

Either there is immunity or this is an extinction event.

Mark said...

This much is certain -- we cannot long survive on government handouts.

Big Mike said...

If Friedman is tight, it will be the first time since partway through the Bush administration. (Yes, the second one. Maybe.)

exhelodrvr1 said...

THey are re-opening schools in HOlland because their studies have shown that children neither get it or spread it

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rehajm said...

Government cannot long survive government handouts.

gilbar said...

on the Trout Unlimited message board this morning, someone posted:
In an abundance of caution, particularly with a potentially lethal disease...
and then 'recommended' that
NO ONE hire a fishing guide..... THIS YEAR
NO ONE go on any fishing trips.. THIS YEAR
That, In an abundance of caution, particularly with a potentially lethal disease, we should allow Every professional guide to STARVE TO DEATH, along with ALL TOWNS that live on tourist income

I thought that was interesting; In an abundance of caution, particularly with a potentially lethal disease; OTHER PEOPLE should lose their jobs, OTHER PEOPLE should change their ways

NOT mentioned, was the idea that maybe YOU, mister 75 year old fat guy, should stay home.
NOPE! it was, In an abundance of caution, particularly with a potentially lethal disease, THAT OTHER PEOPLE should (be forced to )change Their ways

What a wonderful world we live in!

Bilwick said...

I wish Friedman and his ilk would develop a herd immunity to statism.

RigelDog said...

It is FANTASTIC that articles like Friedman's are now appearing! People do not seem to know that the virus will roll through the population and infect X amount of us, regardless of whether that happens quickly, slowly, or in successive waves. I am being lambasted on my local NextDoor because I am trying to get people to understand this grim fact and to use this knowledge to evaluate what our policies should be going forward. The fact that they don't get this basic fact is amazing; obviously our officials are not communicating it and that's probably on purpose. I also think that people are literally not able to "hear" this fact because it can be overwhelming. I just read hundreds of the comments on the Friedman article and so few of these admittedly educated, intelligent people just do not get that. Over and over they said, "well Sweden's death rate is worse than the other Scandinavian countries." And a few sensible commenters point out that the idea is to look at the numbers after a year, not just now---kinda the whole premise of Friedman's article---but to no avail. The reply comments are 99% "but the rate is high now, you must not care about people dying!" Trump and the general disgusting nature of Americans and our culture appears in almost every post too but that's to be expected in the NYT.
The only logical reasons to delay this virus in its inevitable roll though the entire population are that we can probably save some lives due to new discoveries in treatment protocols, and that we MAY be able to have an effective vaccine developed more quickly than natural herd immunity is reached. So the terrible calculus is, can we possibly survive continuing lockdowns in order to potentially improve the chances of those who become infected?

Jim at said...

Funny how certain people on this blog are 'only concerned about having accurate numbers' repeatedly promote, cheer and distort the worst-case scenario each and every day ... including what's going on in Sweden.

Why, it's almost as if they have a vested interest in a massive death count in order to pursue a political agenda. Or something.

RigelDog said...

"...if antibodies from exposure won't confer immunity, we ain't gonna have no vaccine in the future. How do you think vaccines work except by the stimulating the body to create antibodies?"

Exactly this. BUT... spreading out the load on the health care system was/is a good thing. I've seen reports that the daily death numbers in NYC are 4 times what they were last year. Keeping that from happening on a national scale seems like a good idea.}}}

Rational people aren't disputing the necessity of the initial severe lock-down to flatten curve and prepare for our medical response. We are past that now and really need to grapple with the fact that we can't hide forever and can't keep locking down in waves. As far as being medically ready the next time there are spikes, has anyone seen data that we would NOT be prepared down the line? I see people stating that we could be overwhelmed in the future (and so have to keep severe restrictions/enact future lockdowns), but not any data to support that. How the hell could we NOT be prepared from this point onward?

RigelDog said...

Lucien said: If you listen kinda carefully & between the lines it seems like some people are now suggesting that the idea of depriving people of liberty and the pursuit of freedom is to flatten the curve until there is a cure or vaccine."

BINGO!! Exactly! Like the Anchorman, I wonder if I am in CrazyTown because this enormous shift isn't being announced, acknowledged, discussed, disputed...
Overnight, everyone began speaking as though we always knew that we were going to be in CovidPrison until a cure is found. And the national conversation continues along this rigid line. As though we all agreed to it. As though its the only course. As though it would even work at all.

RigelDog said...

"if antibodies from exposure won't confer immunity, we ain't gonna have no vaccine in the future. How do you think vaccines work except by the stimulating the body to create antibodies?"

The NYT commenters let this point pass over their heads too. The Swedish official quoted in Friedman's article addressed it specifically. Yet the commenters ignored the science and kept asserting their idea that, "because we don't know if contracting Covid will confer immunity, we must continue severe restrictions until a vaccine is developed." SMH. One fellow poo-poohed the idea that we could reasonably expect to get herd immunity more quickly than a vaccine is invented because "we never got herd immunity to polio." Forget the fact that polio is a completely different virus with a limited mode of transmission (fecal matter to mouth). If the polio virus was airborne (what a nightmare vision) and as contagious as Covid, then we would have achieved herd immunity in the decades of the epidemic before a vaccine was discovered.

Inga said...

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!
6:45 AM · Apr 30, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

Anthony said...

>>I am being lambasted on my local NextDoor

I just perused my NextDoor for the first time in weeks. Nearly every commenter is promoting masks for everyone, and ANYONE WHO DOESN'T WEAR ONE IS IGNORANT AND WANTS OTHER PEOPLE TO DIE!!!11!!

A couple of people pointed out that masks do next to nothing, but EVEN IF IT HELPS A LITTLE THEY'RE WORTH WEARING, AND YOU ARE IGNORANT AND WANT PEOPLE TO DIE!!11!!

This is true mass hysteria and people are freakin' scared. We here are used to discussing the real numbers and such, but I think most people are only getting their info from the mass media and government and they're scared to death.

Costco is now requiring them on everyone (as of May 4) and I shall not be going there anymore. Walmart might be doing the same and I will avoid them and any other place that does. If I must, I have an old Halloween mask I shall don.

Beaneater said...

madAsHell said...
Has anyone ever seen Tom Friedman in the same room, and at the same time as always-wrong Paul Krugman??

-----

What if Friedman and Krugman disagreed on something? That would provoke a paradox of epic proportions. Since both are always wrong, if Krugman says A and Friedman says not-A, it might cause the whole orderly structure of the universe to implode.

RigelDog said...

Inga said: Despite reports to the contrary, Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown. As of today, 2462 people have died there, a much higher number than the neighboring countries of Norway (207), Finland (206) or Denmark (443). The United States made the correct decision!}}}

The discussions I have read acknowledge right upfront that Sweden's death rate is above the Scandi countries at this time. The rates, however, are middle of pack with other countries in Europe which did institute more stringent government-ordered lockdowns.
In any case, the idea that a herd immunity may be reached sooner in Sweden and that further surges may be avoided is the most salient point. Time will tell if the overall number of infections and deaths averages out with countries that are trying severe lockdown.