Watch live here.
ADDED: Trump is announcing a new policy called “Opening Up America Again.”
We’re opening “one careful step at a time.” We’ve “passed the peak in new cases.” We’ll “shelter the highest risk individuals,” continue with “vigorous hygiene.”
He’s stressing that the states are different, and states that need to remain closed will be “allowed” to do that. States can work together and “harmonize” their efforts.
Outbreaks will be identified and “put out... rapidly.”
AND: It’s a structure of “gates” and “phases” that I will not try to summarize, but basically states must satisfy criteria and then they can move into a phase, with 3 phases outlined.
The first questions zero in on sports. When can we get back to the spectator arenas?
April 16, 2020
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Does this replace the old policy of 'Closing down America again'?
Nothin gets by ole ARM.
ARM: "Does this replace the old policy of 'Closing down America again'?"
Beijing's Boy barks at Althouseblog, but the caravan moves on.
Not only is Trump now getting out in front of the reopening and providing the needed pressure to get the governors moving, but the final nail in the coffin of the russia collusion hoax gets nailed into place with the news now breaking that the russians actually infiltrated Christopher Steele's firm and the FBI knowingly used russian disinformation as the basis for their spying on candidate Trump and as the basis for the coup attempt against a sitting President.
Heckuva a job ARM.
For once, Trump looks tired.
I wish that the Opening Up of America is a huge success. I hope we see no spikes in infections and deaths. I hope people are able to get back to their lives and stop acting like hysterical ninnies. I hope that I can finally get down to buying my new condo in Madison and finally move. I hope our kids and grandkids can go back to school in the fall. I hope that this damned virus leaves and never comes back. I hope we have a vaccine sooner than later. I hope we get some good effective meds to treat the symptoms. I hope none of us or our loved ones die of Covid on a ventilator. I hope not one more person dies of Covid.
I hope people don’t forget that Covid doesn’t care if you’re rich or poor, Democrat or Republican.
But, Trump is cheerleading us as he always does.
I hope people don’t forget that Covid cares if you’re old or young, fat or skinny, diabetic or not
fify!
Drago said...
ARM: "Does this replace the old policy of 'Closing down America again'?"
Beijing's Boy barks at Althouseblog, but the caravan moves on.
****************
"Time marches on", but ARM isn't on the parade route.
Even Germany (cradle of the nazis) is going to start opening up May 4 th. Germany is not stupid, they know that the only way they can keep eating is to export manufactured goods. See them put pressure on their customer nations to open up too. If the Gov of Michigan won’t let you buy a bmw, Merkel will be on her like an 88 mm panzer round.
Bullshit, Inga. Other than your precious condo purchase, you don't mean a single word you typed. You're not fooling anyone.
Inga: "I hope people don’t forget that Covid doesn’t care if you’re rich or poor, Democrat or Republican."
Unfortunately, the DOJ/FBI/CIA/NSA/All Fed Depts under obama very much cared if one was a democrat or republican.
Perhaps by the time of Trumps reelection we can rid ourselves of both diseases.
“Even Germany (cradle of the nazis) is going to start opening up May 4 th. Germany is not stupid, they know that the only way they can keep eating is to export manufactured goods. See them put pressure on their customer nations to open up too. If the Gov of Michigan won’t let you buy a bmw, Merkel will be on her like an 88 mm panzer round.”
———————————————————-
“On April 20, shops of up to 8,600 square feet can reopen if they have “plans to maintain hygiene,” Merkel said.
Bookstores, bike shops, and car dealers, no matter their size, will also be allowed to open.
Schools will remain closed until May 4, at which point they may reopen for students in their last year of primary or secondary school.
Hair salons can also open on May 4.
Bans on large public events, including soccer matches, will remain in place until August 31.
Bars, restaurants, theaters, and religious services will remain indefinitely closed.
Germans are now encouraged, but not required, to wear masks in public.
Bans on public gatherings of more than two people will remain in place.”
How Germany plans to start opening up.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/how-germany-plans-to-start-opening-up-starting-new-week.html
Hope is not a strategy and a faulty foundation for a plan.
Trump is providing a plan, one which takes in consideration the competing trade offs of shut down and opening. There will be set backs and spikes. We will persevere if we follow the plan. It is a good plan.
We tried the 'Close down America again' policy back at the end of the Bush Jr presidency. Didn't work then, not sure why they tried again.
OUAA!
Beijing's Boy: "We tried the 'Close down America again' policy back at the end of the Bush Jr presidency. Didn't work then, not sure why they tried again."
Wow. Desperation has really set in as that is possibly your most pathetic effort to date at trolling.
Really. No where close to being up to snuff.
I hope your handlers dont see that one. For your sake.
Evers has already decided to keep Wisconsin shut down until a Dem is in the White House.
This is good news, folks.
Just digest it a bit. It's been a rough, rough 6 weeks for a lotta folks. It'll take time to recover, but this is a big step in the right direction.
States with low numbers and GOP Governors are gonna re-open quickly.
Watch what liberal, lazy ass Hawaii does. They need tourists to survive economically. They have a grand total of 9 Covid-19 deaths. Let's see the Dem Governor make his move. Is he a party hack or a leader? We'll see.
Have a beer and chill for a few hours.
Josephbleau
I didn’t know the Panzer ever had an 88. I associate that with their artillery. But of course it makes sense to have a common bore (not a Biden endorsement).
“Hope is not a strategy and a faulty foundation for a plan.”
Hope is just that, no more no less. Hope.
Blogger Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
Does this replace the old policy of 'Closing down America again'?
Yeah the "again" doesn't really make any sense. But, I can at least rationalize why he called it that. The phrasing of doing or making something followed by again, has kind of became a brand or trademark for Trump. Obviously not in the legal sense. But in peoples' minds it is strongly associated with Trump. And opening up the economy, is fairly positive sounding. It feels like rebirth, and renewal, very spring themed. Plus dealing with the economic affects of shutting down most of the American economy because the disease is going to be America's next big immediate thing to deal with. He is in a way associating himself with that job already. With Biden conspicuously absent from the picture.
Uh oh. Director Redfield says ALL the early cases of this virus came from China...which contradicts ARM's strongly articulated, and Beijing approved, position that there is no way that we can tell where this mystery virus came from.
No way at all. It will forever be a riddle we cannot solve.
Similar to how we may never know the motivations of islamic supremacists who scream allahu ackbar as they murder westerners.
Thank you for these distinguished subjects. we wish you a nice and sparkling visit.Plants to Keep Mosquitos Away
The new go to term: "syndromic"
Drago said... ARM ... ARM ... ARM
Why won't you respect Ms Althouse's strong requests to avoid personal attacks? When did you start hating America?
Trump said mitigation worked. And I appreciate his optimism for the future of the US.
Disappointed that he didn't call it Get America Going Again.
The Tiger tanks had the 8.8 cm guns if memory serves.
"When can we get back to the spectator arenas?"
Hopefully never. To hell with the overpaid prima donnas and thier publicly subsidized stadiums. Go out and play sports yourself. Added advantage - less change of couch potato obesity.
Here in Washington state, Governor Inslee decided to hold his CV-19 update today at the very same time the Trump team was unveiling the national program. I have no idea what Inslee said, but I'm pretty sure that even though we meet the 1st "gateway (14 days of declining positive test results), he will keep us locked up as long as possible.
he did let a bunch of prisoners out of jail however.
Beijings Boy: "Why won't you respect Ms Althouse's strong requests to avoid personal attacks? When did you start hating America?"
Please identify the alleged personal attack.
Dont worry, we wont hold our breath.
They are doing their best to make this look like a crisis.
They are going back and relabeling deaths that happened weeks ago "suspected" COVID-19 cases and putting them on today's numbers.
It is a fraud.
This started out as a Chinese coverup and Trump is a RACISSSS. Then it morphed into Get Trump. Now they are trying to cover for China and to cover for the "Experts" and to keep globalism viable. Now they are attacking Trump for his slow response.
They also realize the deplorables have seen through them. The clock is ticking.
We will not be a police state. We will not let the cowards and tyrants win.
Festive scarf reveal.
Bringing forward from the Michigan post. Trump's presser is going to put added pressure on Wisconsin's Governor Evers. I saw several "Recall Evers" sites spring to life after the extension of the stay at home executive order. The 650,000 signatures required to initiate recall are about equal to the number of people who filed for unemployment in the state last week, so it's probably not a stretch.
Remember when Evers issued the first stay at home order and his Dept. of Health Services Secretary Designee said it was because we could expect "1,500 death in the next 2 weeks"? Instead, the next 2 weeks brought 72 total deaths. And don't tell me it's because "distancing worked!" That's hogwash. It's because the initial calculations were pure scare tactics.
Wisconsin's weekly deaths from all pneumonia-related illnesses (including COVID) has hovered at around 100 per week this year (like every year during flu season), from before Wisconsin's first case, right through this pandemic, with no discernible change.
People are not going to put up with another month. The roads are already busier this week than last, and next week,when this was all supposed to end, will bring open disregard of the extension, I expect.
Reporters at the presser behaved themselves much better.
This wise ass tone and behavior the Democrat controlled media assumed in dealing with Trump has been beaten out of them by the president. He’s won that battle.
We could use some sort of media that reported in a reliable fashion. 3-1/2 years of the Democrat controlled media disgracing itself with constant, deliberate lying has destroyed their credibility.
I think there’s a market for responsible, somewhat unbiased media. Who’s going to exploit that market?
It is a reasonable plan all around. It puts all the onus on the governors and local officials to make the actual go/no-go decisions, and gives them the political cover they need as long as they follow the guidelines. It also removes the political cover from those who end up being far too cautious through those same guidelines.
Humans are very good a adapting if we weren't we would have perished long ago. Open things up we'll figure it out just like we always do.
States with low numbers and GOP Governors are gonna re-open quickly.
I was trying to decode that map. Arizona was bright green, which I think means an early opening.
Great optimistic press conference. Will look forward to the DNC-media's negative spin.
Solid, well thought out plan.
Execution is the key.
Those of us with head case governors know they will do what they can to prolong this.
Reporter: Do have any thing for California or Washington?
Trump: Washington state or Washington here?
Reporter: Washington state.
Trump: Well, Washington...the governor of Washington, as you may have heard, can't find cotton. Can't find cotton. A cotton swab, which is slightly more complex than a Q-tip. So really great things are happening. It's going to be great. Terrific progress.
The NBA and NHL seasons are done unless they want to stage some sort of playoffs at empty arenas. It is likely that the MLB season won't open until August, and even then will again be at empty stadiums. Also, it is likely the NFL season will not be in front of fans, either.
It’s pathetic to say this, but I look to Althouse, Volokh and Turley for news reporting.
The NY Times, WaPo, Chicago Tribune, New Yorker, et al., have disgraced themselves. I assume they’re lying.
My local rag, The Kingston Freeman, is just about dead, and deservedly so. Another Democratic Party rag that ran the Russia collusion hoax for 3 years and didn’t even bother to apologize for deliberately lying when it all went up in smoke.
Interesting article on online that says people with Asthma are NOT dying of CV in greater numbers. Diabetes, Hypertension, and Morbid Obesity are greater risk factors.
They don't know why.
I'll bet you $1,000 that Arizona re-opens next week.
walter said...
Festive scarf reveal.
Underrated comment.
Any wapo or nty article based on anon sources that is anti-trump is presumed to be a lie.
They have zero credibility after 4 years of 92% negative Trump coverage.
Here is the plan --
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6840714/Guidelines.pdf
If hot weather reduces the risk, then Deep south should open up soon. Its about that time.
How will the Dems and Fake News spin this negatively?
I think MLB season is dead. How can you have W/S if they only play 80 games?
Time to get back to work!
PGA Golf can still have masters and PGA if they move to later in year.
ST: Kingston, NY?
Brits cancelled Wimbledon, but will probably play Open. I can't see them cancelling US Gold Open.
Yes, Kingston, NY.
It wouldn't bother me if spectator sports totally disappeared, to be replaced with things like video gaming, pornography, bridge and gin rummy, and even actual personal participation in sports.
Hawaii has 500 cases, will be easy to test tourists. So, they should open up soon. California should re-open soon, but since its run by crazy Leftists, will probably wait till mid-may and lag behind.
My best friend in this life is from there. I suspect he's never seen nor heard of Althouse, but I'm going tol tell him I met a guy from Kingston the other day. Nice town, from what I've heard over the years.
To add to the glory of this day:
New York Times: Biden Is Losing the Internet. Does That Matter?
There's an epic ass-whipping coming his way in November.
Cheerio, Mate.
Not sure about Nevada Casinos. talk about vectors for disease! Huge numbers in small spaces, almost all of them tourists from all over the world. interesting problem.
"It wouldn't bother me if spectator sports totally disappeared,"
I like PGA Golf, Tennis, College Football. to a much lesser extent NFL. So, I'm doing OK.
@rcocean
And everybody wants to engage in precisely the behaviors most likely to transmit disease when they go to Las Vegas.
Republican-led states will reopen early, and voters in dem-led states will be watching as we go boating, dining, and playing baseball in the parks.
Toney Evers extends to May 26th -- why?
At the same time DeWine in Ohio is talking about May 1.
And why are we coordinating with Michigan which is among the hardest hit and has different problems than Wisconsin?
My conclusion is that Tony Evers is a dim, dim man. But I knew that already. How could we have kicked out a competent guy like Walker for an idiot like Evers? I will never understand it.
State by state economic numbers in October should be interesting. Which states recover unemployment faster? Dem, or Repub? Those that wait until June, or those that start in May? I know some have to wait, but if Wisconsin for example has few hot spots, low numbers and chooses to wait - how will that compare to, say Ohio?
Interesting that Evers tied Wisconsin to other midwestern states. That is exactly opposite of what should be happening. Rather than expand, each state should decentralize the decisions to the city or village level. Keep local hotspots isolated if necessary and open up the rest. Instead, lightweights like Evers are treating the entire state as the same. Tying anything to the nutty Michigan woman is insane.
We have been isolated for three weeks now. We know who is sick and who isn't. Five more weeks of house arrest? That will kill a whole other layer of businesses. For what? Time for some good old fashioned civil disobedience.
The Tiger tanks had the 8.8 cm guns if memory serves
Good one, Yancey.
Watch closely what happens in the swing states, particularly Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump is speaking directly to those voters. The federal-state dynamic in swing states with Dem governors (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) will be very fascinating, in my opinion. DeWine and DeSantis can be counted on to work closely and smoothly with Trump.
Thanks to Christ Trump is punting the Buck to the Governors. Handing over the controls to more competent less corrupt men is his safest bet to win another term. This way he can hog all the credit and avoid any blame from his marks if it goes sideways.
I noticed with Evers -- first it was to flatten the curve. Now it's to ensure everyone is tested! WTH? Way to move the goal posts, Governor.
Absolutely no way I'm being tested if I'm not feeling sick.
Evers is in on the Democratic Party’s conspiracy to commit economic sabotage to take out Trump.
That’s why.
COVID-19 isn’t a serious issue in Wisconsin.
"Toney Evers extends to May 26th -- why?"
To trash our economy.
Howard OKs the Dem governors’ strategy of deliberate economic sabotage.
Not surprising.
Howard thinks the intel agencies conspiring to destroy a president was a good idea.
He’s that smart. Really.
To trash our economy.
Exactly. That’s all the Dems have going.
And Howard.
Looks like Michigan is still only allowing State-run labs to do testing.
State labs on Tuesday, the most recent date for which data are available, completed 4,601 tests, an increase of about 1,169 tests over the previous day. The state reported that 26.5 percent of those tests were positive.
It has been 12 days since Wisconsin's peak daily new cases: 196 on April 4. Today there were only 154 new cases.
Hospital beds in Wisconsin are only 63% full according to the state's own website. We are only utilizing 348 out of 1246 ventilators.
Does that mean we can move to the next phase in two days?
German 88s saw useage in field artillery, tanks, anti aircraft batteries and on Deck guns on their privateer ships as well as shore defenses.
"Thanks to Christ Trump is punting the Buck to the Governors. Handing over the controls to more competent less corrupt men is his safest bet to win another term. This way he can hog all the credit and avoid any blame from his marks if it goes sideways."
Clearly, Howard has woken up on the wrong side of the couch today:)
Michigan health officials reported 172 more deaths Thursday from the coronavirus. That brings the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the state to 2,093. Of the 172 deaths in the last 24 hours, 152 of them were in Metro Detroit’s Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties, with 100 alone in Wayne, home of Detroit.
The age of the deceased has ranged from 20 to 107, with the average age of those dying from the disease being 73.5 years old.
We watched CNN right afterwards, where they were claiming that Trump was "reversing course," and putting the onus on the governors. I wish they had read your earlier post!
And I will reprise a meme I've seen several times on Facebook...if they would have just told us Southerners that college football was at stake, Walmart would have been a ghost town. And, not joking, if all of this means no football this fall, I will be really hacked off.
@Bay Area Guy
Howard is essentially in favor of rule by a military/intel junta.
That’s his definition of “smart.”
Know what you’re dealing with.
Even the pretense of democracy doesn’t interest him.
Shorter Inga: hopes and prayers
Gretchen Musollini will await from her Nazi Collaborator boss of course. Some dem voting friends are steamed at not being to access their summer homes throughout this. I too will bet she's primaried.
it takes 14 days of lowered cases, to deescalate, the first level,
Hope is without value, a weak emotion that may help some sleep better yet accomplishes little if anything. Step out of the way, the doers have tasks to complete.
"Inga said:
I hope people don’t forget that Covid doesn’t care if you’re rich or poor, Democrat or Republican."
But, it does care about your age, physical condition and underlying illnesses.
Anyone may get it and most will survive, except the old, obese and sick - it's devastating to them.
They are doing their best to make this look like a crisis.
They are going back and relabeling deaths that happened weeks ago "suspected" COVID-19 cases and putting them on today's numbers.
In all probability, the official numbers are an undercount. Without the ability to do widespread testing in the community, we cannot accurate track the disease. Absent widespread testing, contact tracing, and isolation, we will likely see a second wave.
The public should be able to determine who in government is essential and all the rest have to go sit at home, unpaid. In the meantime, for as long as stay at home orders are in place, the no government at any level may collect taxes. Income, sales, property, etc.
@Farmer,
"In all probability, the official numbers are an undercount. Without the ability to do widespread testing in the community, we cannot accurate track the disease. Absent widespread testing, contact tracing, and isolation, we will likely see a second wave."
Interesting take, Farmer! You got any data or reference to a published scientific paper on which to base this or is this just more arm-couch epidemiology?
"Browndog said:
The age of the deceased has ranged from 20 to 107, with the average age of those dying from the disease being 73.5 years old."
Don't get tricked by average age, you want the median age. Average age will be lower than median, from all reports I've seen. Some with 80% above 60 yrs old.
Josephbleau
I didn’t know the Panzer ever had an 88. I associate that with their artillery. But of course it makes sense to have a common bore (not a Biden endorsement).
The German Tiger I and Tiger II (Royal or King Tiger) both were equipped with 88mm tank cannon developed from the 88mm FLAK (anti-aircraft gun).
The speakeasies and black market will have to get us thru here in upstate NY until Cuomo gives up on holding us hostage to undercut Trump.
Upstate NY is virtually unaffected, but that’s not where the votes come from to win the governorship.
What I'm missing is high school track/field and club soccer. It's not spring without them...
@Farmer, we agree the numbers are inaccurate, it is inappropriate to assume the direction of the inaccuracy.
So how about states that never closed, like South Dakota? There hasn't been a single case in my side of the state for 2 weeks. 6 total deaths state wide. Two counties have all the cases. What do we do?
I hope people don’t forget that Covid cares if you’re old or young, fat or skinny, diabetic or not
fify!
Hot dogs, Armour hot dogs
what kind of kids eat Armour hot dogs?
Fat kids, skinny kids,
kids that climb on rocks
old kids, diabetic kids
even kids with WuFlu pox
love hot dogs, Armour hot dogs
the dogs kids love to bite!
They've changed the criteria from chicom wuhan plague cases to ALL flu like symptom cases. Talk about moving the goalposts.
Welcome news, and it was presented with the imprimatur of the science and health experts. The media were flummoxed. They couldn't present a single hostile question during the presser. They'll be back tomorrow however.....I live in NYC. It will probably be years before we get to Phase One. I don't think I'll ever again travel by subway. But it's good to see other people resuming their lives.
Howard: "Thanks to Christ Trump is punting the Buck to the Governors."
Even more impressive was Trump inventing a time machine to go back and convince the founders to implement a federalist system!
Good catch Howard.
You'll have to forgive Howard. Watching a President abide by the Constitution always dumbfounds democratics.
I love the Kentucky Derby and I hate that it had to be postponed until this fall and maybe eventually canceled for 2020, not having live sports to watch on TV makes social distancing even worse. Plus, it's looking more and more like our health authorities overreacted, ultimately causing an even greater loss of life. I just heard Bill Bennett on Fox say that for every 1% increase in unemployment, it's estimated that suicides increase by more than 10,000.
"Please show your work."
1. Wuhan Flu. Also accept CCP Flu.
@Drago
As I said above, Howard isn’t fond of any aspect of democratic constitutional government.
Military/intel rule by junta is his preferred system.
He’s proven to be a valuable member of the commentariat by bringing that perspective to us. I thought he was a useless fool when he first showed up. But, if you want to understand the thinking behind the conspiracy to oust Trump, Howard is your go to guy.
BAG: anything but “the ‘rona.” That makes my skin crawl.
Bay Area Guy
1. Wuhan Flu - flows nicely, abbreviated yet descriptive..."sticky" as Malcolm Gladwell would say.
Bay Area Guy: "Informal Althouse poll:
1. Wuhan Flu
2. ChiCom Flu
3. Chinese Flu
4. Kung Flu
5. WetBat Flu
Please show your work."
I think you need an option for ARM and his like-minded Beijing Buddies.
How about:
6) China Had Nothing To Do With This And If You Say Otherwise You Are A Lying Dog-faced Pony Soldier
" more competent less corrupt men"
What a shitlord you be, Howard.
Drago - thanks for literally my first laugh of the day
Disappointed that he didn't call it Get America Going Again.
Good stuff, Not Sure!
p.s. No love for Chinese Lung AIDS?
Oh - that's good.
People are having too much fun with Joe Biden’s new ‘I’m on Team Joe’ avatar maker
Here's the WaPo Negative Trump spin:
As-testing-outcry-mounts-trump-cedes-to-states-in-announcing-guidelines-for-slow-reopening.
LOL So we get an attack on Trump for not enough tests, AND the statement that Trump is retreating from earlier claim that he never made. Orange Man wrong again!
"zero in on sports"
How many athletes with complications? One amateur, as far as I know. Anyone else, in the whole world?
As I've said before, and will say again, and again, cuz it needs to be said, in retrospect the sports shutdown will become a symbol The Panic of 2020.
Keeping crowds away for now, fine -- though even that is hardly justified: the risk to healthy people under 30 is minimal, and we could use more herd immunity.
Massive costs incurred for little gain at the expense of the young and healthy: the story of the insanity epidemic.
@Bay Area Guy:
Interesting take, Farmer! You got any data or reference to a published scientific paper on which to base this or is this just more arm-couch epidemiology?
Nope, just saying what I think. The most reliable answer I can give to you as to what's going to happen in the future is: I don't know. But I'm guessing that if I made the opposite case as to what I thought would happen (one you're presumably more amenable to), you would not have demanded data or reference to scientific papers. There have been concerns about a possible second wave in Daegu, and Hokkaido in Japan also saw a jump after rates had declined. We'll have to wait and see.
@ST.
Good Point about Nevada casinos. People don't go there to wear masks, practice social distancing and worrying about germs. I wonder what the Big Casinos "game plan" is. You can be sure the Nevada Governor wants to re-open ASAP, since the state lives and dies on Tourism. After all, Las Vegas is just a patch of desert in the middle of nowhere. Hawaii can do other things.
Yeah, I miss Ladies' Night at the casino over the hill.
Experimental coronavirus drug remdesivir shows promise in Chicago trial, report says...
patients in the trial experienced rapid recoveries from fever and respiratory symptoms. Nearly all patients were discharged in less than a week, it said.
Hmmm... Sounds like Dr K was right; UNSURPRISINGLY!
@stevew:
@Farmer, we agree the numbers are inaccurate, it is inappropriate to assume the direction of the inaccuracy.
Absent the widespread availability of testing. Dead bodies generally aren't tested. Excess mortality also suggests an under counting, though it's very hard to tease out from those numbers how much is due to someone avoiding hospitals out of fear of getting infected.
Banned racist fopdoodle wants Trump to exercise the same sort of diplomacy that got the racist fopdoodle banned.
Irony is dead.
Madison Man @ 6:56: "Absolutely no way I'm being tested if I'm not feeling sick."
I think that's the wrong attitude. We need random sampling to more accurately gauge the scope of this thing.
In the meantime, let's get back to work with PPE.
The NYTimes comment crowd on the "Biden is Losing the Internet" story are a sad mix of pathetic wishcasters, bitter scorned Sanders progs, and numbed leftist zombies repeating the same rote script, near word for word, about the evils of Trump and the need to #votebluenomatterwho. Honestly, it's sad. It's as if most intelligent people have deserted the NYTimes, and all they have left are the halfwit sycophants and crazed socialists.
We have documented evidence of over counting of Covid attributed deaths. Agree on your suggested under counting scenario. Net: we don't really know. Yet decisions are to be made. Good news is that even assuming the highest numbers of cases and deaths puts us well below previous doomsday predictions.
"I think that's the wrong attitude. We need random sampling to more accurately gauge the scope of this thing."
It's most likely not anyone's choice as they are only testing people with severe enough symptoms to be sent there by a doctor.
NY Times: Obesity Linked to Severe Coronavirus Disease, Especially for Younger Patients
Obesity may be one of the most important predictors of severe coronavirus illness, new studies say. It’s an alarming finding for the United States, which has one of the highest obesity rates in the world.
The fussy NY Times is saying, in essence, if you're old and fat, you need to stay home. And, according to Science, if you're young and fat, you have to stay home too."
I love science!
That's why CFRs are much higher than the actual effective mortality rate.
Well, its official : the pandemic has proven to be bit of a medical dud, while the reaction to it is more like an economic nuke.
I expect the actual death rate of those infected with covid-19 will approach, if not equal, that of influenza (0.1%). The total number of deaths from corona infection is already on track to be less than or equal to that of an ordinary flu epidemic. Both of these results could have been inferred from South Korean data available a month ago, data which has been corroborated by more recent numbers from from Germany.
It should be understood that an important difference between covid-19 and influenza is that c-19's lethal signature -ARDS (adult respiratory distress syndrome) is a scary, catastrophic condition, and this fact helps explain the over-reaction to this viral epidemic.
But its now time to open the country up. President Trump is exhibiting courage & strong leadership today. We can expect daily "Trump killed my grandmother !" stories in the near future as there will be some deaths going forward that might have been delayed (not prevented) by continuing the shutdown.
1. Wuhan Flu
2. ChiCom Flu
3. Chinese Flu
4. Kung Flu
5. WetBat Flu
The virus formally from Raccoon City... Wuhan. Umbrella Corporation is a globalist progression.
The fussy NY Times is saying, in essence, if you're old and fat, you need to stay home. And, according to Science, if you're young and fat, you have to stay home too."
I am neither old nor fat, but the longer I have to stay home and not exercise (I normally play basketball and soccer regularly) the older and fatter I am getting.
Off topic (and a bad topic) are alternate names for Covid19. It's boring and it's old. Stop talking about it here. I don't post about that subject, so it's not responsive to the post, and I don't want it.
I'm deleting everything in that category. And don't discuss my deletion policy here either. It's off topic.
Ward was mocking test and trace all day. Trump's plan requires test and trace. Ward pronounces it a good plan.
Blogger William said...
” I don't think I'll ever again travel by subway. ”
I was so pissed when mega Corp closed the NY base which required me to commute to the west coast.
Now I’m so happy I don’t spend countless days shlepping to and fro on the E-F, LIRR and PATH.
THAT has got to be where all of this spread in NY has happened. Truly frightening.
Having read it, it looks at first blush a reasonable approach. It is solid based on testing. I think there are other reasonable approaches than just test and trace, but it is a solid gating criterion. I like the requirement for testing certain classes of employees in the first phase. It’s a little vague on what counts as a resurgence, but maybe the need to pass the gating again meets that objection.
I want to think it over and read some reactions from people I respect, but as I said my initial response is positive.
That was a pretty good press conference. The press actually showed the slides this time. The last time I watched, they focused only on whoever was speaking, even while the speaker was pointing to slides. Slides I wanted to see but couldn't regardless of the news outlet. Also, the press did a better job of asking questions. What did they do, keep the crazy ones out this time?
Farmer : "Absent the widespread availability of testing. Dead bodies generally aren't tested. Excess mortality also suggests an under counting, though it's very hard to tease out from those numbers how much is due to someone avoiding hospitals out of fear of getting infected."
Not true : I have performed many autopsies and I always got an ample blood sample. Its quite easy once the body is open- you can stick a horse needle in the aorta, which gives you plenty of material for running a battery of serologic studies. You could also easily collect diagnostic material (swabs) for covid-19 PCR.
“ I think that's the wrong attitude. We need random sampling to more accurately gauge the scope of this thing.”
This is absolutely correct. Since it’s a disease that spreads and has hot spots cities and states need to test themselves regularly. Detroit is a mess but Traverse City isn’t (yet). Need localized tests to know.
>>@Farmer, we agree the numbers are inaccurate, it is inappropriate to assume the direction of the inaccuracy.
We here at The Department of Pulling Numbers Out of Our Ass disagree!
Now, where did I put that 11 million dead number? Not to worry, here's another one...
250,000 dead!
Please use this number until we invent a better one.
Not true : I have performed many autopsies and I always got an ample blood sample.
Sure, but you have to want to. Everybody does postmortem drug and alcohol tests.
I'm not sure these people want to know the WuFlu numbers.
“Ward was mocking test and trace all day. Trump's plan requires test and trace. Ward pronounces it a good plan.”
Ha, I noticed.
@rightguy:
Well, its official : the pandemic has proven to be bit of a medical dud, while the reaction to it is more like an economic nuke.
I don't think we know enough one way or the other to make a determination. We're six weeks from the first reported Covid-19 death in the US, and the typical flu season is six months long. There is also the potential impact that the recent mitigation efforts had. There are still lots of unknowns, such as what effect warmer temperatures will have, what the immune response to the virus over the long-term will be, how the virus effects different sub-populations, what impact viral load has on the severity, etc.
It's a safe bet that the numbers and percentages of plump, obese, and morbidly obese Americans will drop over the next year or two. I hope that will be much more from fatties getting serious about dieting and dropping a whole lot of pounds, much less from fatties dying in droves from coronavirus. I'm certainly looking forward to being able to take long walks again to take off fifteen or twenty pounds. I was diagnosed with Type II twelve years ago and have already dropped 35, putting my blood sugar now in the pre-diabetic range, but another 15-20 might allow me to stop taking them, and I have more and deadlier incentive now to accomplish that. We shall see.
BTW, I think President Trump has done a masterful job of leadership, here; Dr. Fauci is fully on-board with this earlier-than-expected reopening of the economy !
>>There are still lots of unknowns
20+ million unemployed. That's known.
What is the AA population of Traverse City?
@rightguy:
Not true : I have performed many autopsies and I always got an ample blood sample. Its quite easy once the body is open- you can stick a horse needle in the aorta, which gives you plenty of material for running a battery of serologic studies. You could also easily collect diagnostic material (swabs) for covid-19 PCR.
I am not sure what you are saying is "not true." I didn't claim that it wasn't possible to test corpses. But due to limited testing ability, many are not tested.
Disregard....it’s less than 2%...
Detroit..nearly 80%
@DanTheMan:
We here at The Department of Pulling Numbers Out of Our Ass disagree!
Now, where did I put that 11 million dead number? Not to worry, here's another one...
250,000 dead!
Please use this number until we invent a better one.
Well, I didn't give any numbers, only explained possible factors that could result in an undercount.
>> Well, I didn't give any numbers, only explained possible factors that could result in an undercount.
Well, good. Don't pull any numbers... your ass is considered non-essential. Only our officially made-up numbers are to be used for decision making.
320
What's Livonia, also a bit of a mess.
Stop having fun you guys.
And also, let's concentrate on the plan to dig ourselves an enormous economic hole that wrecks the ROW.
We have stopped 22 million people from gainful employment and save or created 11 million lives.
So we have that going for us.
Which is nice.
Many corpses have not been tested. Perhaps they should be.
Volunteers accepted.
Farmer : "Dead bodies generally aren't tested." Not true-they are tested all the time.
Also, serum can frozen and the studies can be done when testing becomes available.
@DanTheMan:
20+ million unemployed. That's known.
Given an unknown threat, the activity we were seeing abroad, the failure of containment, the potential for harm, and no ability to test, contact trace, and isolate the sick, we were left with a heavy-handed option. And there is at least a distinction to be made between unemployment related to structural forces in the economy versus unemployment resulting from deliberate, temporary halting of certain economic activities.
You are impressing me these days Farmer. Good think you don’t mind the hatred, because if you didn’t already have a target on your back you'd now have a target on your back.
The distinction you suggest is that when the supply lines quit supplying and people begin to suffer real want - unlike anything in all but very distant memory upon these shores - that will make it better?
Explain the distinction and why it is better.
@rightguy:
Also, serum can frozen and the studies can be done when testing becomes available.
Sure. Like I said, I'm not talking about what can be done, only what's being done. I believe Minnesota does have a large number of frozen samples awaiting testing. But of course postmortem samples are low on the priority list given the limited availability of testing. I thought it was a nasal or lung swab rather than blood, but I can't recall now.
I explained the obvious distinction many times Birkel. If a company liquidates the jobs are gone, but if it just shutters temporarily then it can easily restart and the jobs come back very fast. Cash flow is a key factor in preventing liquidation. If the government helps with cash flow and the suspension is of not too long a duration then many businesses needn’t liquidate. Similar effects with homes and moving, but I explained that too.
@Ken B:
You are impressing me these days Farmer. Good think you don’t mind the hatred, because if you didn’t already have a target on your back you'd now have a target on your back.
After spending years dealing with violent sociopaths, ranting psychotics, sexual predators, serial child abusers, gangbangers, borderline personalities, and toothless moms on speed, mean words from anonymous people on the Internet isn't much of a burden.
Farmer
You mean you met these folks in person??
@Ken B:
Farmer
You mean you met these folks in person??
Yes, that was my job, evaluating people for the court system. My company continues to do that, but we have since expanded to a variety of different clients.
Farmer
I meant Drago, Achilles, Pants and the rest 😉
I have never been sure exactly what you do. Is it MMPI, and investigating, etc?
Having never run a business, the idea that one word of what was typed above has any bearing on reality is worth a hearty belly laugh.
When the crime rates tick higher, just remember that when every second counts the Mounties are only minutes away. Good luck with explaining why your econometric models were right, it was just the real world that was wrong. You'll be in good company.
At least when the crime rates tick higher Smug will have a better business.
So there's that.
Which is nice.
This is a serious question that no one seems to have an answer for: In the 2017-2018 flu season which from what I understand was calculated from late Oct or early Nov of 2017 and lasted until late March of 2018, there was 45 million getting sick, over 800,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths, which was the highest since the 2009 h1n1 pandemic (which everyone has flushed down the memory hole). It was also severe for all ages, not just the elderly as more than 46,000 hospitalizations occurred in children (of less than 18 years)
Why were the hospital not overwhelmed then? If we are doing this shut down to flatten the curve to make sure the hospitals are not overrun, then why did we not do the same when that flu outbreak was happening? Were the hospitals better staffed then, did we have more hospital beds, why did we not see the stories concerning hospitals running out of beds then?
"Ward was mocking test and trace all day. Trump's plan requires test and trace. Ward pronounces it a good plan."
That is Trump throwing a sop to the idiots like you, Ken. I fully expected it because to have done otherwise would have lead to a round condemnation of the plan by the utterly useless intellectual set. Trump played you well, Ken.
"why did we not do the same when that flu outbreak was happening?"
1. This Time Is Different
2. We have to follow the experts! Real calculations!
3. Panic. We know it when we see it, but how to explain it?
4. Different party in the White House.
5. MSM even more partisan now, eager to do us harm for political gain
but if it just shutters temporarily then it can easily restart and the jobs come back very fast.
What, exactly, qualifies as temporary, Ken? Have you ever run a business of any kind? It doesn't sound like it. A company shuttering doesn't also shutter all of its expenses and overhead- those continue to accumulate. A business might get away with a month or two of shuttering, but even then the jobs won't come back immediately because the customers don't come back immediately.
@Ken B:
Is it MMPI, and investigating, etc?
That and about a dozen others. WISC-IV and WAIS-IV being the most common.
Guess you didn’t notice that test and trace is a *requirement* . And at each phase too. Hilarious.
@Birkel:
At least when the crime rates tick higher Smug will have a better business.
So there's that.
Which is nice.
Economic indicators and crime rate are not particularly correlated, if at all. Crime rates have risen during periods of economic expansion, and they have fallen during periods of economic contraction.
Tell that to Charlotte, NC, Smug.
Are you telling me there is the same amount of crime regardless of the economic conditions under which people live?
Pull the other one.
I notice the bars over the windows in all the fanciest neighborhoods.
Economic conditions don't matter.
And, yes, I know that's not what you're saying. And I also know it's bull shit junk social science nonsense. I can cook the books too.
Ken, you dumbass, all the states claim to be testing and tracing right now. They just have to continue what they claim to be doing already. I just know the claim is a fucking joke, and I think you do, too, but won't admit it.
No answer, Ken? Aren't the states "testing and tracing" right now by their own claims? Yes or no? I will give you the way to know the answer if you don't- the administration has already said a lot of the states could open up today if they wanted to- this means the testing and tracing is already fulfilled pretty much everywhere but the northeast and some states in the midwest, and even they claim to be testing and tracing.
Were you are always this stupid and we overlooked it all this time, or has Covid-19 driven you insane?
@Birkel:
Are you telling me there is the same amount of crime regardless of the economic conditions under which people live?
Pull the other one.
Well, economic conditions and crime are correlated. Poor people commit more crime. But not because their poverty made them more criminal. Rather, their poverty and their criminal behavior tend to be the consequences of similar personal deficits.
p.s. The most obvious example is the Great Recession, during which crime continued its trajectory downwards.
Do you recall real material want during the 2008-2009 period?
I don't.
Destitute people do what they must.
Lopping 40% off the GDP is a good way to make people destitute.
I can only take solace that Canada will have it worse when the US consumer market is unavailable.
Historical examples:
I give you the 70s.
Historical examples:
I give you the 70s.
The crime rate was increasing every year from 1955 to 1970, which was a time of economic expansion. And the crime rates of the 70s continued to rise throughout the 1980s despite the economic turnaround from the previous decade.
Is it true that "the jobs won't come back immediately because the customers don't come back immediately"? Depends on the particular sector of the economy. A lot of work that would be being done right now is going to be done as soon as it can. The first day the stores are open (not necessarily the same day for different businesses) I'm going to drop off a couple of coats to be relined at a local sewing store. (It will probably cost more than the coats did, but they have sentimental value.) That will provide the owners with a substantial dollop of work and income.
Don't laugh but, as soon as I can, I will also buy a bronze statue of Heracles I had my eye on at an antique mall (unless someone else got it first), maybe another of Apollo or Augustus if they give me a quantity or desperation discount.
I will also have a bacon cheeseburger and fries at a local restaurant that's doing pick-up only now. (I'm getting food from them tomorrow, but the cheeseburger and fries will have to wait until they're open for sit-down dining, since even driving the two miles home with them in a bag would seriously detract from their scrumptiosity.) I think many of my neighbors will start eating out even more than they did before the quarantine, partly because they're already thoroughly sick of cooking for themselves, partly to help local restaurants get back in the black as soon as possible. Are we worried about crowding? I'm not. When I checked a few days ago, total Covid cases in my town of 24,000 were 1, same as 3 weeks ago, so I imagine that one person has recovered. There have been 3 in the nearest town of similar size, and 13 in the surrounding county, with (I'm pretty sure) 0 deaths. Odds of avoiding infection are quite good. Also, the restaurant I'm thinking of already had widely spaced tables and few if any other customers at the times I like to eat burgers (3:00-4:00pm).
As soon as the quarantine is lifted, I'll also start putting serious miles on my car - the antique mall's 100 miles away - so I'll have to gas up in less than a week, though I haven't needed to do that for six weeks now, since the grocery stores are all within a mile or two and I work at home. In short, I and many of my neighbors will be pumping money back into various local businesses at more than our previous weekly rates. Some businesses (barber shops and beauty parlors, for instance) will have to work long hours to catch up with pent-up demand, and that will help them get back on their financial feet.
Do I sound like I'm spending a lot of time planning what I'm going to do as soon as I'm free to do it? I'm sure I'm not the only one!
Hold constant for youth.
Middle age people commit the fewest crimes and kids the most.
The danger, Smug, of which I am warning is that middle age people will turn to criminality.
We know the most, are the most patient, have heads for strategy, and can generally accomplish the most.
It is outside most people's ken.
Dr Weevil,
I hope the restaurant you want to visit has its suppliers ready to deliver quickly. The bottlenecks will be consequential.
> There have been concerns about a possible second wave in Daegu, and Hokkaido in Japan also saw a jump after rates had declined.
The only reason there is a second wave is that herd immunity was suppressed by unsustainable methods.
Send the kids to school, have the spring break, and get those antibodies out. Or tolerate 22 million jobs lost a month (in just US) for a year till a vaccine partially fights it, but restores our testicular fortitude.
For under-45, COVID hospitalizes 1% & kills .014%.
All ages, flu hospitalizes 1.5% & kills 0.13%.
Restricting COVID to under-45s results in 6x flu hospitalizations & 1x flu deaths, & gets us to herd immunity.
Farmer : "Like I said, I'm not talking about what can be done, only what's being done."
I can't imagine that anyone dying in the US in the last 6 weeks of an infectious disease, especially one with a respiratory component, not being evaluated -pre-mortem or post-mortem- for covid-19. If they die outside the hospital, surely the coroner would investigate it properly. That is what I think is 'being done'.
I doubt that there could possibly be a significant under-counting of c-19 deaths- everyone is looking for it.
rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week
"Chicago hospital treating severe Covid-19 patients with Gilead Sciences’ antiviral medicine remdesivir in a closely watched clinical trial is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms, with nearly all patients discharged in less than a week, STAT has learned.The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir."
The restaurant doesn't seem to be having any trouble getting what they need - a lot of it is local farm-to-table sourced. It's open for pick-up meals now. They've always been a sit-down lunch place and a pick-up-or-delivery dinner-for-one-two-or-four place (only open M-F 10-6). Now they're just doing the latter, which seems to have been the larger part of their business even before.
Middle age people commit the fewest crimes and kids the most.
The danger, Smug, of which I am warning is that middle age people will turn to criminality.
We know the most, are the most patient, have heads for strategy, and can generally accomplish the most.
Well, the elderly commit the fewest, but I take your point. The age-crime correlation is very well established, and a lot of the decrease in crime can be attributed to the aging of the population. A country with fewer young people will tend to have less crime.
I understand what you are warning of. I'm just saying that historically we haven't seen that phenomenon. Even though crime statistics were not as robust in the 1930s, local police records and other data show decreases in crime during the Great Depression. Crime also spiked through the "roaring 20's" though the effect of prohibition complicate the story a bit.
I have no idea what that last sentence means.
@rightguy:
I doubt that there could possibly be a significant under-counting of c-19 deaths- everyone is looking for it.
People dying at home are a potential difficulty in counting. How much of the increase in at home deaths is attributable to Covid-19 versus other issues is unknown. A lot of coroners are being denied testing kits from their local health departments due to their limited availability and need to prioritize their use. Already dead people are low on the list.
"no evidence of a rebound" for second and third phases. But, of course there will be a rebound. What do you expect to happen when you relax the lockdown? I would have thought that they need a criterion for a rebound "that isn't too bad".
@Unknown:
The only reason there is a second wave is that herd immunity was suppressed by unsustainable methods.
What methods in Hokkaido were unsustainable?
We actually aren't clear on the immune response to the virus. The antibodies may only allow partial protection and/or the immunity may be of only a short duration. We don't know.
Panthers had a high velocity 76mm gun. The panther IV being the last of that line.
No matter what the gun size. The tank that fired first was usually the one to win the battle.
Get everybody back to work before this gets really messy.
Evers is the strangest little man I have ever seen. What is he up to? And what is his endgame?
Yancey Ward said...
The NBA and NHL seasons are done unless they want to stage some sort of playoffs at empty arenas. It is likely that the MLB season won't open until August, and even then will again be at empty stadiums. Also, it is likely the NFL season will not be in front of fans, either.
4/16/20, 6:23 PM
I know there are LOTS of folks that live for sports. I don't see it myself. I am sorry if this offends anyone but I would not be too upset if "professional" sports never fully recovers from this. Just as with Hollywood, these people are "just" entertainers and are [imho] treated with undeserved reverence by too much of the population and most act in a fashion specifically undeserving of that reverence. They earn TONS of money for playing a game (in the case of Hollywood, for lying convincingly). They hold [in my opinion] too much sway in people's lives and in society. A "contraction" of the financial environment in which they all exist would maybe re-establish some needed clarification and boundaries, as well as possibly improve their socialization, i.e. being supportive of society at large and thankful for the opportunities and gifts they have been able to capitalize on. Instead of going out of their way to flaunt and/or denigrate that which most of society holds dear.
Clearly the above does not describe ALL but it covers a fairly LARGE swath of those that inhabit both fields.
Inga said: "I wish that the Opening Up of America is a huge success. I hope we see no spikes in infections and deaths. .."
I appreciate your basically positive list of aspirations. My daily prayers hit all of the same points; hopefully, Someone is listening. Although I hope and pray that there will be "no" spikes/increases in infections and deaths upon relaxation of shut-down, we all need to acknowledge that it's virtually guaranteed that this will happen to some extent. We can't keep the shut-down going based on the idea that we could somehow starve this virus of new victims and banish it from our country forever.
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