There's such a difference between calling the Swedish approach "relaxed" and calling it "lax." "Relaxed" sounds more like freedom and ease. "Lax" sounds like negligence.
But Sweden did experiment with a lax/relaxed approach — perhaps you think the U.S. could have done that — and we can look at the results:
As many public spaces throughout Europe empty out—with citizens only leaving home for essential groceries or medication—life in Sweden is carrying on, mostly as usual. Children walk to school while adults meet up for dinner at their local bar. Only the vulnerable have been advised to isolate and some are working from home. Yet in Sweden, where there are 9,141 confirmed cases and 793 people have died, experts worry weaker measures may be leading to a more severe outbreak in the country of just 10 million citizens.
Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame....
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist overseeing the government’s response to COVID-19 has said the government should allow the virus to spread slowly through the population, an approach initially employed by the United Kingdom and the Netherlands before both countries rapidly changed strategy amid mounting evidence that this approach would still overburden health care systems....
[I]nterpersonal distance is valued in Swedish culture and 40% of Swedish households are single-person households without children.... And Swedes have above-average confidence in their politicians, who in turn, trust citizens to follow their advice....All that is to say that the results of the Swedish experiment are not automatically transferable to other countries. What might have worked for them would not carry over to places where people don't already maintain physical distance from each other, where there are lots children, and where people don't accept and follow the rules laid down by government.
I'm just assuming that TIME is accurately describing Swedish culture, but you get the idea. One country can experiment and we can see the results and perhaps decide to do things that way. But doing the same thing in a different place might yield very different results, and, in any case, at this point, we might say things are not going so well in Sweden, so it's more an example of what not to do.
And yet, we are still in the middle of things. We'll have to wait to know the long-term benefits and losses in the lax/relaxed approach used in Sweden.
As for the idea that different places should use different policies, we have something of that in the United States, at least as long as the federal government gives state and local government a strong role in making the decisions.
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I saw last night, as well as in comments over at Marginal Revolution, that the virus was hitting the Somali refugee population in Malmo and Osterbek fairly hard.
This would not surprise me in the slightest if they honestly thought it would remain there.
I'm really sick and tired of people putting Scandinavian countries on a pedestal economically or for just about anything.
I've been there, and no, you rubes, they're just as dumb as everyone else they just have lower population densities.
Everything can be used as information. Will there be a spike in cases in WI because of the election? Time will tell. (I don't trust it to be reported with accuracy however).
I remember an airplane hijacking of a commuter plane out of Los Angeles. Investigators investigated and looked at airport procedures and decided that the security precautions at Los Angeles were lax.
This came from walking around always surrounded by bags that said LAX, is my theory.
And the great state of Florida went from zero to totalitarian in no time at all. Why? Because they could.
seems like the key words in the headlines aren't relaxed OR lax...
They're Could Be
It Could Be be TIME magazine is just making stuff up?
It Could Be be TIME magazine is engaged in wishful(hateful) thinking?
It Could Be be TIME magazine is just hoping that "wishing will make it so"
its the flu, not leprosy
a flattened curve
has the same area underneath
In SIR, the Recovered box
Sweden isn’t the model, Taiwan is the model. No shutdown, just massive mask usage and vigorous flu preventative methods. No self suicide of it’s economy and the now 17? Million of thrown out of work and untold number of businesses shuttered forever.
I think you also have to consider that strict lockdowns are not sustainable indefinitely, so the countries that are locking down shouldn't get too cocky.
It remains to be seen how helpful the lockdowns are at actually preventing COVID deaths versus just deferring them for a few months.
I knew the Left wing praise machine was going to regret its Swedish miracle narrative simply by watching their Deaths/Million Pop numbers on the Worldometer last Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
They went from below USA's d/M to above USA's d/M. I always ignore the "cases" columns. They are irrelelvant.
I'm glad that someone somewhere is trying a different response. It doesn't sound like the Swedes are doing nothing but rather that they're trying a different approach. They may be wrong, but they're not reckless or stupid.
"As for the idea that different places should use different policies, we have something of that in the United States"
Do we, still? Looks like the governors are all engaging in the same CYA shut-everything-down fear-mongering panic-appeasing control-maximizing exercise in ruining their state economy on the basis of bad projections.
It's not clear in any case that you could try out different state models and assess them on the merits without border controls, which we do not have--after all, until Rhode Island acted up, we didn't even have restrictions on NYC migrants traveling elsewhere.
Anyway, as Milton Friedman noted in anther context, the proper comparison is not between Sweden and the U.S. but between Sweden and Swedish-Americans.
so another who authority, brussaleurs, rendering judgement, but it's important to know where the spread is,
"Sweden isn’t the model, Taiwan is the model. No shutdown”
Funny how the pro freedom people here keep touting a country that used police state tactics in contact tracing. Using individual cell phone data combined with CCTV footage, etc, to trace contacts.
Sweden is a far freer country than Taiwan, which also has a very high incentive to track the activities of mainland Chinese and has much better intelligence into what is going on inside China. During the Obama era, the ChiComs killed all of our spies in Red China. Well, I hope not all, but who knows?
Sweden is simply doing what every county has done for centuries -- it's a scientific/medical practice called herd immunity. You can look it up, Althouse. It ain't mysterious.
Germany just finished some random testing in the general population -- 0.37 fatality rate.
Money quote: "Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while."
California is doing the same type of study.
Time to reopen the economy!
"Mélissa Godin is a journalist reporting on gender, climate change, global health and human rights."
>reporting on gender....
How does that work? This just in: new gender discovered in Stockholm...
Unknown said...
its the flu, not leprosy
a flattened curve
has the same area underneath
Bears repeating. We're not preventing COVID-19 infections. We're postponing the infections until a more convenient time. Eventually most of us will get sick, but hopefully when there is a hospital bed available.
"Sweden is simply doing what every county has done for centuries -- it's a scientific/medical practice called herd immunity. You can look it up, Althouse. It ain't mysterious."
I don't need to look it up. It's in the article anyway. And Sweden denies that's what it's going for.
Taiwan probably had a list of every single person that had been in contact with somebody from Red China even before this started. Such a list would have been highly useful in contact tracing. Nice to have it up and running as a matter of course for years prior to the outbreak.
People are "worried" things "Could" go wrong. Can be trust Time to report accurately? Some experts are worried that Time's reputation for bias and inaccuracy may affect this articles truthiness.
We're postponing the infections until a more convenient time.
It's not over until the fat lady dies. Or until the food-riots start.
has the same area underneath
One possible benefit of postponing infections is that vaccines and treatments might be found in the meantime. Possibly. Or not.
Unfortunately, destroying economies isn't nearly as theoretical.
Sweden has only been testing those with severe symptoms which of course creates a higher fatality rate. Sweden does have a relatively high deaths per million figure, but 10 other nations are higher including Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc., and some are much higher, and of course there is Michigan where we have a very close starting place. Those places all have more severe restrictions. It's not a question of whether restrictions work, China can tell you that, but are they worth the difference? Some certainly are, but some are not and cause their own crises.
I've read stories seeing the same data at the same time that make a case for Sweden doing it right, and other stories making it sound like a mistake. The stories need to be mostly ignored and the data used. Writers make the data say whatever they want. I just want options explored for a better strategy next time, whatever that is. We should not try to immediately poo poo the only different example we have, just becuase they tried something different. I wish there were more creative strategies tried, but it seems that fear puts a real damper on creativity, and herd mentality takes over.
"But doing the same thing in a different place might yield very different results, and, in any case, at this point, we might say things are not going so well in Sweden, so it's more an example of what not to do."
You could say the same thing about stay-at-home orders in New York City (things are not going well in New York, so it's more an example of what not to do).This is impossible to evaluate in the middle of things. Let's see where we are in August.
In some ways, Sweden sounds like America outside the New York tri-state area. It certainly sounds like a lot of places in the mid-west and west. The only real hot spots are southeast Michigan (Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb Counties) and anomalies like Eagle County, CO. Remember, if we end up with fewer than 60,000 deaths, we have an outcome similar to a bad flu season. This "stay-at-home order" stuff that prevails in Europe and 42 states is unprecedented and dangerous in different way.
We really need to think about what would happen with relentless public health messaging and reliance on individuals' good judgment about their own situations. Stay home if you are sick or over 65, wash your hands ten times more than normal, cover up if you cough or sneeze, wear a mask if you interact closely with others.
And Sweden denies that's [herd immunity] what it's going for.
There MUST be more than one time magazine article floating around.
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist overseeing the government’s response to COVID-19 .... told Swedish TV on April 5 that COVID-19 could be stopped by “herd immunity or a combination of immunity and vaccination.”
"We're not preventing COVID-19 infections. We're postponing the infections until a more convenient time. “
That’s always been the strategy, and it still makes sense. Now they have been saying a lot of things about these next two weeks, well, week and a half now. Some real decision has to be made at that point, and zero deaths has never been on the table. We are learning from these other countries, but at some point soon, school’s out.
Well, @Fernadistein beat me to it, but....
AA: "And Sweden denies that's [herd immunity] what it's going for."
From the article:
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist overseeing the government’s response to COVID-19 has said the government should allow the virus to spread slowly through the population, an approach initially employed by the United Kingdom and the Netherlands before both countries rapidly changed strategy amid mounting evidence that this approach would still overburden health care systems. Tegnell told Swedish TV on April 5 that COVID-19 could be stopped by “herd immunity or a combination of immunity and vaccination.” (A vaccine for COVID-19 is likely at least 14 months away.)
Sweden may deny that part of their strategy is establishing herd immunity, but it's everybody's strategy until an effective vaccine (or very effective treatment) is deployed.
At some point, school's *in*. Hopefully.
Reopening the economy is an inapt phrase. It will not be a simple declaration of “all clear return to you stations” the economy is now “open.” No, the population has been scared shitless and it will take months before people have the nerve to get on a plane, before they don’t look at everyone as a “carrier.” We are well and truly fucked For years is my guess.
Maybe they are hoping that it will catch their muzzie population that has crapped the place up.
- Krumhorn
"and anomalies like Eagle County, CO.”
Reason did a thing on the county where Telluride is as an example that the virus is already widespread, but wealthy and highly mobile skiers, jet setters, also ski in Norther Italy. Eagle County, you are talking abut Vail. Same thing is true for a high. end ski area in Idaho, which had the highest cases per 100K in the country, despite a very low population density. But if you have ever been in a ski lodge during ski season, I think maybe you could question that reasoning.
...Sweden denies that's what it's going for.
"there are many people who never believe a thing until it has been officially denied" -
attributed to many, believed by me.
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/08/07/believe/
Japan never locked down and their economy shrunk by 25%. So a booming economy was never on the table any more than zero deaths. Japan is locking down now though, the major cities.
I still wonder that if the common flu can still kill far more that COVID might, then what do we do every year about the flu? I have no doubt that people who really scarified nothing substantial this time, of which their are many, would have no problem shutting the rest of down every year. If you have a pension and mostly stay at home anyway, what the hell do you care?
If you can’t understand the numbers at all, it’s natural to use your self interest and emotional bents to pick what you want to believe.
tim: "We're postponing the infections until a more convenient time.“
Supposedly. (Not arguing with you!)
Except that a big part of the "convenience" had to do with the prospect of providing effective care for people who got infected. We now know that no such care is likely for a substantial portion of victims--old, sick, overweight people. Sure, we still want to have capacity for people who can be helped, but many can't. That should affect the cost-benefit calculation used in justifying lockdowns as currently applied, and it reinforces the need for stricter quarantines on the actual risk groups -- you don't want them to need care in the first place.
The other premise for the shut-everything-down line is that infections cause high hospitalization and fatality rates. Newer evidence suggests that rates are lower than expected, even by models that took into account the effects of serious distancing. Some German research suggests a fatality rate of .37%, without trying to account for measurement problems and the issue of excess--so even .37 is a max number for a relatively well-studied local population. Spreading infections out is still prudent, but knowledge of their lower impact again affects the cost-benefit calculations used to justify lockdowns.
The more we learn, the less justified they are.
As the Streetwise Professor has pointed out on his blog, something not yet raised here I think, even if we still take the dire projections and bullshit numbers at face value, it makes more sense to stage an all-out effort to expand capacity (and I would add, rigorous quarantines on the old and sick) at a cost of billions rather than hurt the economy at a cost of trillions.
Case fatality rates accuracy are dependent on testing. The Time article never mentioned tests/million. Its statistical propaganda. It serves the governments agenda.
Whats the deaths/million? Ignoring that statistic allows the massaging of statistics to push the narrative.
Facui and Brix explained to us early, social distancing was not designed to reduce deaths, but to flatten the curve to prevent overwhelming medical assets. So why are we spending time looking at incomplete data before the end of the run of this virus. No statistic today would provide information to make decisions. Unless that decision is already made, and we are now just picking which is the best data set to support the decision.
What we do know, is this virus is not very deadly...to healthy persons.
The population does not need protection. The old, and infirm need protection.
Self Quarantine for those at risk. It's their life, their choice.
We will soon,(10 days?) have quick tests to identify those infected. Protecting the at danger group, will speed immunity, and start to resuscitate the economy, improving the health of low income Americans, more than Social distancing ever could
Telluride is in a strange and strangely shaped county with the mountain ski area at the eastern end, but most of the county is sparsely populated high-desert sagebush extending to the Utah border.
This time I'll save google the trouble of saying it: "Whoops that an error!"
I haven't seen a lot of discussion of the Netherlands, which last I heard had a targeted, not a general, lockdown.
There was discussion in Italy was that the Netherlands would have to do more, and would be sorry they hadn't sooner. Turns out they're not doing shockingly well, but neither do they seem worse off than their neighbors.
They have the [apparent] case fatality rate of roughly 10% common to most large western European countries. On the other hand they have fewer confirmed cases than Belgium with its smaller population, and about the same number per capita as Germany.
(The Italian I know best thinks they're undercounting both cases and deaths, because if you were an old person with COVID-19 in a country that famously practices euthanasia, would you go to the hospital for testing and treatment, or take your chances at home?)
"We're postponing the infections until a more convenient time."
Are we? I can't get a handle on this question/answer, it doesn't seem to be part of our current national discussion. I had read at the beginning of this crisis that epidemiology tells us there is an inevitable Cruel Calculus; a virus marches through a population and will infect X-number of people, period. All you can do is alter the rate.
Here's the ultimate question: Other than the lives saved because our medical systems are now capable of treating the flattened-curve numbers of patients, will a significant number of additional lives be saved by some other effect of the shut-down? Because if that's not the case, why wouldn't we be easing the lock-down very soon---as soon as we confirm medical treatment capacity?
Does anyone have the expertise or relevant links to flesh out this issue?
As to Sweden, I also note that in terms of deaths per million of the population, right now Sweden is doing a lot better than Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Netherlands, UK, and Switzerland, all of which are modern, wealthy, educated places with social safety nets and state-supported health care systems.
Germany, Austria, Denmark, Ireland, and Norway are doing better than Sweden, as is the USA.
"Experts say" a lot of things. Or journalists say "experts say" a lot. Most of which seems to be turning out not to be the case.
Aunti Tim: they don't seem to understand that flattening the curve makes chloroquine zinc zpak profilaxis even more available. Therefore Trump is even bigger Hero ensuring four more years.
Is the lower obesity epidemic in Sweden factored into the comparison with USA?
"but most of the county is sparsely populated high-desert sagebush extending to the Utah border.”
Once again. Have you ever been in a ski lodge? You know, where a significant percentage the people who live there who work in the ski industry, or serving it, all packed into a steamy ski lodge? But all of that empty sage is useful for mischaracterizing how the people really live, which is what Reason did.
on the county where Telluride is as an example that the virus is already widespread,
Reason didn't mention, at least that I could see, that the initial testing ("986 samples", of about 8,000 population) in San Miguel country consisted of testing "first responders" in the crowded old mining town turned resort of Telluride.
so they are doing twice as well as we are, iran is said to be doing only slightly worse, which makes me want to throw out the data set, consider the link from an outside group,
Blogger tim in vermont said...
"Sweden isn’t the model, Taiwan is the model. No shutdown”
Funny how the pro freedom people here keep touting a country that used police state tactics in contact tracing. Using individual cell phone data combined with CCTV footage, etc, to trace contacts.
It's "funny" how the "pro-action" leftists here are never in favor of action that targets the people who are actually the problem.
So, tracking people who've been exposed to a deadly virus is "police state tactics"? What then, is subjecting to house arrest every single person in a State?
Hmm, we can minorly harm the rights of 1 person in 1000, in order to keep them from unwittingly harm other people, or we can majorly harm everyone in the country. What should we do?
Tim says: let's nail everyone!
And appears to feel proud about that.
What I can't figure out is WHAT is the driving force that makes leftists always search for the greatest harm for the greatest number?
RigelDog
You ask a very good question. It has been answered here actually.
There are several strings to our bow aside from just not overloading the medical system. I will just mention some here briefly.
Test and trace is more effective in most situations, but was not available to us because of the CDC screwup leaving us short of tests. It will be available after we get more tests.
We don’t know an effective treatment yet. Chloroquine is promising as are a few others. We need to know, and that takes time. A better treatment can save lives, period. And tests allow early intervention.
Viral load seems to matter. People who get a light initial dose might survive at a higher rate. That is more likely with social distancing and, again, testing.
Some workplaces would be especially hard hit. They need special handling. The key here, again, is testing. Testing is vital, and we needed time to catch up.
"Sure, we still want to have capacity for people who can be helped, but many can’t.”
This is why the “flu season” argument is bullshit. .37 is way higher than a normal flu and our hospital system is scaled to handle a normal flu. I am sorry I can’t go along with your cavalier assuming that rate down even further based on anecdotes from wherever you find them heavily weighted by confirmation bias.
But if what you are suggesting is that politicians step up and inform the American people that “Sorry, but the obese among you are not going to have treatment wasted on you,” good luck with that.
“ they don't seem to understand that flattening the curve makes chloroquine zinc zpak profilaxis even more available. Therefore Trump is even bigger Hero ensuring four more years.”
I pointed that out over a week ago. If chloroquine works then Trump is FDR, and tens of thousands are saved.
"So, tracking people who've been exposed to a deadly virus is "police state tactics”?”
First you need a system that tracks everyone, like Taiwan has, before you can track jus the infected and their contacts. Or are you able to predict whom they are going to come in contact with in advance, and only track those people, Minority Report style?
I wouldn’t worry though, like the Patriot Act and FISA courts, once you set up this system, it will never be abused!
For comparison: Hong Kong has 7 million people, close to China, has 989 cases, 4 deaths. Schools closed, most of the economy closed.
Taiwan has 20 million people, 382 cases, 6 deaths.
I'd love to see an honest comparison of Sweden and Denmark. What would that look like?
1: Report everything on a per-capita basis (Sweden pop ~ 2x Denmark)
2: Report how testing is done / reported in both countries. What % of the pop tested? How much contact tracing is done?
3: Report how "death by the Chinese Coronavirus" is scored. Do they test everyone who dies, to see if they had CCV? Does everyone who dies with CCV get scored as a CCV death, regardless of comorbidities and manner of death?
4: Ethnicity of those who die. Is Sweden just "taking care of their immigration problem"? What's % dead vs % ethnicity in the country? For both Sweden and Denmark?
Of course, our press is too stupid and incompetent to do actual reporting like that. But a man can dream, can he?
Tim in Vermont said
“ But if what you are suggesting is that politicians step up and inform the American people that “Sorry, but the obese among you are not going to have treatment wasted on you,” good luck with that.” “
Well there is an easily adapted precedent.
“ I mean, I do think at a certain point you've made enough money."
“ I mean, I do think at a certain point you've eaten enough."
I think we learn many new things about how to treat a patient infected with a novel virus. Maybe we will be able to save many more of the sickest as we learn what best practices are for this.
I’ve heard some discussion about docs finding mechanical vents possibly hurting covids more than helping. It seems that the odds of surviving covid after being put on a vent are very, very low. Some discussion that cpap/bipap with O2 is more helpful.
Every person who insists they know The Proper Response is lying.
No one knew
the true public health risk.
No one knows the long-term effect on the economy.
Very few people speak honestly about the trade-off: More deaths for less economic damage.
This applies to just about every modern public debate, it's just so obvious with this one.
" they don't seem to understand that flattening the curve makes chloroquine zinc zpak profilaxis even more available. “
It allows the medical community time to learn how to use or not use ventilators. It allows us to find treatments of all kinds, it allows time to fit out hospitals with more negative pressure space for isolation, time to learn what works and what doesn’t work.
Once again, the economy of Japan shrunk by 25% with no lockdowns. There was no path to avoiding a severe recession.
Tim said,
"Funny how the pro freedom people here keep touting a country that used police state tactics in contact tracing. Using individual cell phone data combined with CCTV footage, etc, to trace contacts."
I very much see myself as a pro freedom person but I have to say that if the choice is between shutting down an economy or dramatically slowing down an epidemic and tracing people's movements from their cell phone records then that choice is a no-brainer.
Now this wasn't an actual decision to my mind because I believed the virus had already been spread far and wide at that point and that therefore it was too late to do contact tracing.
But still the way the reporters presented this issue has puzzled me for some weeks now. Several times I have heard the claim made in the media that we can't trace contacts by cell phone usage because it would infringe on individual liberty. I have to say I am suspicious. For one I doubt that the reporters writing are "pro freedom" people and care about individual liberties, other than their own, and we even know what "pro freedom" people think.
Second, I wonder what do so-called "pro freedom" people think about it? In my case I know what my choice would have been, and it was pretty easy.
Third, were these reporters really trying to push for a bigger epidemic? Is the left really that bad?
Fourth, of course, I would be worried about the abuse of such a power and the precedent it would set, and I suspect that the left would try to extend and abuse it.
But still context matters.
(Oh, and by the way, Taiwan is not a police state.)
"will a significant number of additional lives be saved by some other effect of the shut-down? Because if that's not the case, why wouldn't we be easing the lock-down very soon---as soon as we confirm medical treatment capacity?"
Of course. But don't expect the if-we-only-save-one-life crowd to think rationally about this.
The further issue will be that people will soon feel that "additional lives" were saved after the shutdown--as an artifact of earlier bad projections, as discussed on other threads, easy for Trump to exploit. Correlation ain't causation, but the fallacy will be useful to both the pro-panic faction and to Trump. But I predict that both measures of actual population infection rates and the stable age/risk profile of victims will confirm that "lives" are "saved" because the virus doesn't harm the vast majority of people with healthy immune systems--also reason to end the lockdowns.
tim in vermont said...
Me: "So, tracking people who've been exposed to a deadly virus is "police state tactics”?”
First you need a system that tracks everyone, like Taiwan has, before you can track jus the infected and their contacts.
No, you don't. Or, at least, no more than we in the US have right now, with cell phone tracking data. Take every infected person, and get the cell tower data for their cell phone, plus any other location data their phone can give you. Announce each day:
People infected with the Chinese Coronavirus were in each of these locations at these times. If you were there at those times, please get tested.
Also, automatically test any friends / family / coworkers they were in contact with.
Also, get everyone to wear masks, so everyone's a lot less infectious (even with just cloth masks over nose / mouth).
But, apparently, asking people to act responsibly, and doing our best to track down teh actual disease carriers? THAT is a bridge too far for you.
Why?
How is our NATO ally Turkey doing?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/turkeys-covid-19-infection-rate-rising-fastest-in-the-world
Once again. Have you ever been in a ski lodge?
"Once again", what? Another simple minded lecture?
"Every person who insists they know The Proper Response is lying. “
Yep. The man in the arena works with the information that he has and does the best he can and can never outperform the hindsight people who get to try their ideas in an imaginary world where they set the rules.
'"Once again", what? Another simple minded lecture”
Yeah, I regretted writing that and considered deleting it. Sorry, I am just kind of torqued at Reason.
CJinPA
Of course, and the certainty we see from the open now! crowd is misplaced. But we do need to respond somehow. Even doing nothing is a choice. In the face of so much uncertainty, it’s wise to be prudent and cognizant of risks.
tim: "I am sorry I can’t go along with your cavalier assuming that rate down even further based on anecdotes"
Hey, if modelers can base their fancy projections on "guesses," can't we all?
My guess is that even the best population studies so far do not take into account that many deaths "with" the virus are attributed to the virus, and that a number of apparent victims had life expectancies so short that they did not produce "excess mortality."
Both measurement and assessment of excess are standard issues in epidemiology. I do not think they have been fully sorted out. I have no specific guess about how much they affect reported CFRs, but without accounting for these standard issues, which is challenging even in well-studied diseases like influenza and may take a while in the case of Wuhan disease, the reported rates are upper bounds. That's all. If the true rate is over .3, that is indeed much higher than flu.
"No, you don't. Or, at least, no more than we in the US have right now, with cell phone tracking data.”
Taiwan’s system links to CCTV cameras, on account of the constant threat from the Red Chinese. There would have to be a SCOTUS ruling at least. The stuff you see has been anonymized.
"My guess is that even the best population studies so far do not take into account that many deaths "with" the virus are attributed to the virus, and that a number of apparent victims had life expectancies so short that they did not produce 'excess mortality.’ "
Italy has had huge “excess mortality” They have the figures readily at hand by town.
"So, tracking people who've been exposed to a deadly virus is "police state tactics”?”
No. But I would like to see tracking done smartly.
For example, in a thread a few days ago someone brought up Chinese students who returned to the U.S. early this year. Presumably, a non-trivial number came from Wuhan/Hubei province, and some must have carried the virus. At the same time, that is not an overly large group, and their movements and initial campus contacts should be fairly easy to localize. Cell phone data on students and faculty who have been around Wuhan students would be very useful. Is none studying this??
As a very "pro-freedom" person, I am also in favor of using tracking to help impose quarantines on the risk groups.
“ As a very "pro-freedom" person, I am also in favor of using tracking to help impose quarantines on the risk groups.”
So, doesn’t that require a certain amount of knowledge, infrastructure, and testing we don’t have now? And wouldn’t the whole question be moot if we just let everyone congregate randomly until we have those things?
if we have done 2.5 million tests, that's less than one person, and we've seen how outstanding tests have skewed the results positive,
Taiwan https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/taiwan-is-exporting-its-coronavirus-successes-to-the-world/
Ken B said...
CJinPA
Of course, and the certainty we see from the open now! crowd is misplaced. But we do need to respond somehow. Even doing nothing is a choice. In the face of so much uncertainty, it’s wise to be prudent and cognizant of risks.
--
I agree Ken. I'm OK with what's been done in PA, and also know that we have to talk about getting people back to work as soon as we can. And I constantly remind myself that my wife and I can work from home, and our life has not been upended.
I'm glad Sweden is trying this different approach. We won't know for some time if their's was the better option since it's hard to compare any two countries. The statisticians have a big challenge.
We will be at war with the virus world for a long time.
tim in vermont:
If you want to compare Japan's economy to the US economy, it shows you are poorly informed. Japan has had net zero percent growth in its nominal GDP over the last 31 years. And it has one of the oldest populations of any country on the planet with new births about one-third of replacement value. Japan is a failed economic state. And it has been that for three decades. Plus, most of Japan's population is packed into dense cities.
So your comparison to the US economy is contrived, at best. And by that I mean displays a level of ignorance not normally accomplished by all but the dumbest on these boards. It's Inga-level bad. It's the worst effort you could offer.
Whatever Birkel. Let’s do Sweden then.
The economic impact of the Swedish strategy is also unclear. The government certainly thinks it’s going to be pretty bad. According to the National Institute of Economic Research, an agency that reports to the Finance Ministry, its baseline scenario has Swedish real GDP growth declining by 3.4 percent this year, worse than its 2.9 percent forecast for the United States.
https://www.aei.org/economics/international-economics/swedens-coronavirus-results-dont-make-the-case-for-reopening-the-american-economy/
Reality is that unless you are relying on some mental undocumented model of your own, there is no way to know which approach is better until after the chips have fallen.
Also learned from this piece. Sweden has the highest rate of single person households in the world.
"That’s always been the strategy, and it still makes sense."
That's always been the strategy, and it never made sense. We thought it made sense, because they were talking about how there weren't enough ventilators to go around, so we needed to "flatten the curve". But now we have found out that what ventilators are used for is to keep the Covid-19 patients from breathing on the help during the two weeks it takes them to expire when they are being pumped like a bellows. So, you might be better off without one.
And we have already found the cure - HCQ + Zn. The question is whether the medicos are going to use it, now, to save lives, or do double-blind, random-sampled placebo tests that they can publish in December. I'm guessing the latter.
HCQ + Zn works!
Ken B replied: Some workplaces would be especially hard hit. They need special handling. The key here, again, is testing. Testing is vital, and we needed time to catch up.}}}
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I could not agree more that we need tests to be available in the quantity of "out the wazoo." Easily, everywhere available. Also, of course we need/needed time for all kinds of supplies and protocols to be put in place, and for new treatments to be discovered and new strategies to be developed (such as ubiquitous mask-wearing).
But we do need to ease up in some significant way in the not-too-distant future. It would be fantastic if our government and media and experts would pivot to discussing what this looks like. It could be presented so positively. We could be hearing much more about can-do plans to help people and businesses come off of shut-down. Subsidies for the cost of cleaning protocols, maybe. Hell, how about something akin to "infrastructure spending" that trains and equips people to routinely visit public places and disinfect them. Also, there will be a great need to help those who can't easily re-join society, such as vulnerable populations and those who care for the vulnerable. Instead of blanket government cash payouts, direct money to those who need extra financial help to stay at home or to care for those who needs must stay at home. Say that Grandma shouldn't leave the house and her kids can no longer come over to help because they are back at work and their kids are back at school, but Grandma can't afford delivery services or house-cleaners. Subsidize that Grandma!
Yeah, sorry that I had to point out how bad your argument by analogy was. It's really my fault for knowing things and typing them so others can read them. I sincerely apologize.
Meanwhile, the US economy is predicted to decline between 25 and 40 percent for Q1 and Q2. That's between 3-5 trillion US dollars, or the size of the entire Japanese annual GDP. That economic activity is created by real people. Those people have hopes, dreams, and aspirations. But fuck them, really, right? They have to take one for the team because US deaths are going up for one particular cause, while total deaths are down, and hospitals are laying off staff. That seems awesome.
The trade-offs don't stop mattering to those who suffer the costs. Some people are insulated from those costs. Others will feel them acutely. But TANSTAAFL.
Tally:
Good:
The models were wrong so we might be saving 50k lives.
Not good:
The government is planning to triple its capital outlays for the year, pledging 8.3 trillion in debt already.
State and local governments are moving closer to insolvency.
~17 million people have filed unemployment claims in 3 weeks.
Twice as many are unemployed or unproductive.
Hospital systems are declaring bankruptcy - already.
Pensions are decimated so retirement has been moved back in older workers' plans.
3-5 trillion USD of business activity lost.
Nobody can reasonably argue all those costs would necessarily have obtained without the reactions of government officials who seemingly want to BAN ALL THE THINGS.
But fuck those people and their future prospects. Right?
I could not agree more that we need tests to be available in the quantity of "out the wazoo."
What the fuck for? Have you somehow gotten the notion that testing is a cure? Look, you are going to get this disease, even though you would rather not. Even if you brush your teeth and say your prayers and pull the covers up over your head, the virus gonna getchyou! So the question is whether you will receive HCQ + Zn and be better by the next day, or receive the very best medical care a modern hospital can and does currently provide, and die horribly over the course of two weeks. And our leaders are doing their very best to arrange for option B. At least you'll be sedated.
Rigel Dog
We are in broad agreement.
Suggested here weeks ago that we needed to pay people to stay home , and that an online auction might do that well. Much too radical an idea for the ideologues here of course, but MarginslRevolution.com had some good stuff on the idea if you are interested.
Everything Jupiter said at 11:30 was a benefit of having more time.
I am not suggesting that we stay locked down much longer. I have never suggested that it should continue. I don’t actually have any say in it, BTW.
"But fuck those people and their future prospects. Right?”
What? Are you worried about the prospects of future 65 years olds? We all know they are expendable! Why save for retirement at all when you believe that those who are retired now are useless eaters, or will that change when it’s *you* that is retired?
And you might have noticed that I changed my example to another country which has eschewed lockdowns, Sweden, since you didn’t like my Japan example. You seem to like to ride that Japan hobby horse. Prospects for Sweden look worse than for the US.
My only point is that a course through this crisis that didn’t include heavy economic damage to the US was never on offer, anymore than a course that doesn’t include a lot of deaths.
"We all know..."
You are talking to yourself.
Your inability or unwillingness to faithfully describe the views of those who believe different policies would be better offers an insight into your mind. Do you like how it makes you look? Have you paused to wonder why you have not demonstrated an ability to argue in good faith?
Your credibility is in tatters at your own hand.
"Everything Jupiter said at 11:30 was a benefit of having more time."
Well, OK. I guess that's progress of a kind. Of course, the Chinese and the French have been talking about HCQ for weeks now, and this guy gave this interview on Monday;
Duh, it works already!
How much more time do you think we need to benefit from before we stop treating Covid patients like party balloons and start treating the disease?
Tim “ My only point is that a course through this crisis that didn’t include heavy economic damage to the US was never on offer”
Exactly. The decline in business started before any mandated lockdown. I saw lots of businesses closed out of prudence before any order. We went to a store in the mall to get a new router. At least 90% closed, before the official order.
And the economy is international. There will effects.
We are all, for a few years even! poorer now. And we also have costly investments to make. We need to reclaim much of the supply chain, and have capacity here as well as in China or India. That means investment, which is costly, and lower efficiency, which is costly.
That does not mean we stay poor. There was a huge contraction in 1920-21 after the Spanish Flu. But then the roaring 20s. We are not doomed.
"You are talking to yourself.”
That one stung, huh?
"Pensions are decimated so retirement has been moved back in older workers' plans.”
It is my opinion that if the government had never done the lockdowns, many many people living on their pensions would have died and your pension would still be at risk. Wherever the lockdowns have been lifted so far, they have been reinstated. Those models that predict low death counts assume an indefinite lockdown, as far as I can surmise. One shouldn’t be using them to justify a position which they do not have the parameters to anticipate.
I do not advocate indefinite lockdowns. They need to come off within a month, and when they do, in another month deaths are gonna spike again, or we will have far more effective treatments. We can’t wait until every ember is burned out before throwing more gasoline on the coals and it’s predictable what will happen.
If you can’t understand the numbers at all, it’s natural to use your self interest and emotional bents to pick what you want to believe.
Numeracy is not a vaccine against emotionalism.
No, nothing you have written stings. Your inability to see into my thoughts remains an unbroken streak. You and Ken B are the Cal Ripkens of projection.
Why must you continue in pursuit of phantasms?
Ken B almost got to a salient point. Many people were already choosing to social distance, he allows. The second half of an insight never quite arrived. It's sad to watch people devolve in real time.
Vermont is close enough to Canada. You two should form a support group for the unmanned.
Heartless Aztec said"And the great state of Florida went from zero to totalitarian in no time at all. Why? Because they could."
There's a lot of variance depending on locality. Where I live no one is being fined for being out and about. People in Palm Beach are being fined.
"Numeracy is not a vaccine against emotionalism.”
We can argue over who is being emotional, if you like. I have my opinions.
could not agree more that we need tests to be available in the quantity of "out the wazoo."
What the fuck for? Have you somehow gotten the notion that testing is a cure?"
Nope. And I have doubts that, in a country as large and populous as ours, that contact-tracing will be a panacea. But we can do some good with contact-tracing, and testing helps incrementally at so many other points. Just as fever checks can identify someone who needs to step out of society for at least a few days, a quick test could tell you if your scratchy throat and cough mean anything more ominous than allergies or a simple cold. Health care workers could test every day. Each person who can stop mingling when infected means that many more people who are not needlessly or heedlessly exposed. Early treatment is also looking promising. Who isn't in favor of more information, instead of less information?
I am just going by what you have written about your retirement Birkel, but I guess you assure yourself that if we hadn’t done anything, we wouldn’t have become Italy somehow, so I have a hard time accounting for delusion when “reading thoughts.” But I admit, those are just inferences on my part.
Why don’t you explain to me what we should have done instead of just listing all of the stuff you think went wrong.
Oh, and while you are explaining what should have been done, be sure to address how your plan would avoid burning through the population of pensioners, that cohort you hope to join.
"The further issue will be that people will soon feel that "additional lives" were saved after the shutdown--as an artifact of earlier bad projections, as discussed on other threads, easy for Trump to exploit. Correlation ain't causation, but the fallacy will be useful to both the pro-panic faction and to Trump."
Yes. The media have reelected Trump, and they don't realize it yet.
In fact, the media will try to spin around on a dime and claim Trump exaggerated the direness, but that isn't going to work- the memory hole needed can't be dug deep enough. I warned about this a week or so ago when Trump openly embraced the 200,000 death number for the U.S.- the media that day mocked Trump for finally agreeing with the "experts", but Trump was simply setting himself up for what is all but assured to be a big win. Expectations matter.
Given that I have written not a single word about my financial condition, nothing you have written based on that imagined typing can be correct.
Do you recognize how poorly you are doing? This is a sad thing to behold.
Also, sad mind reading Tim, do you understand that pensions are not the retirement vehicle of choice these days? I keep referring back to the municipalities and states that are bankrupt adjacent. Those employees will get screwed. And the PBGC will pick up the pieces and add another several trillion USD onto the debt count.
You are not good at thinking right now. Take a knee.
"Pensions are decimated so retirement has been moved back in older workers' plans.” - Birkel
Anyway, I was kind of hoping that you would explain your plan, the one that should have been used.
Since my mind reading sucks.
The stock market is doing well. Wonder if that matters.
We can argue over who is being emotional, if you like. I have my opinions.
As I have said multiple times here in recent weeks, everyone sees one of two catastrophes coming. Some find one more compelling than the other. Is what it is.
"Aunti Tim: they don't seem to understand that flattening the curve makes chloroquine zinc zpak profilaxis even more available. Therefore Trump is even bigger Hero ensuring four more years."
Man, you guys are so obsessed with Trump. It's not about Trump either way. The question is about what is necessary to flatten the curve, and what is just panic or policies that do nothing or hurt more than they are worth. Just forget that you hate the President and his supporters for a day, and you will see things much clearer.
Contact tracing is a joke once you get beyond 1000 current infected, all this cell phone tracing fantasies notwithstanding. Testing itself for active infection is pretty senseless outside a hospital/nursing home settting since the prescription is the same with or without the test. An antibody test is what is really needed for making decisions about how to proceed- we needed it a month ago.
There are practical limits to the RT-PCR test- the main one being the invasiveness of the sampling itself. This idea that we were going to run a millions of tests a day was always a joke.
"The stock market is doing well. Wonder if that matters."
Yea, we're almost 6000 points above the last administration's high point. That's good.
My plan:
Allow people to continue work. But caveat emptor and no lawsuits if you contract the virus. Wash your hands. Each individual left to decide based on their own risk profile because people are better able to determine their own needs than a bureaucrat spending OPM. Wear masks because it is the better option for protecting your own health.
Government protections for existing workers who decide they cannot risk exposure. People should not lose their jobs because they are higher risk for for serious medical complications.
Businesses that choose to close, would close. Not some unelected jagoff deciding what is essential and what is not. They know very little. Centralized control is a bad idea in crisis and otherwise. Allow communication about needs from so-called essential companies to so-called nonessential companies so they can maintain capacity. Communication is key and right now government fiat will not allow that communication.
Local directives are better than statewide directives are better than national directives.
Broad waivers of regulations should be the order of the day. Individual initiative and entrepreneurship are more effective than government control.
You know: sensible shit.
This paper is still “work-in-progress,” last updated with data from Apr. 4. But well worth the read.
Abstract
About one month after the COVID-19 epidemic peaked in Mainland China and SARS-CoV-2 migrated to Europe and then the U.S., the epidemiological data begin to provide important insights into the risks associated with the disease and the effectiveness of intervention strategies such as travel restrictions and social distancing. Respiratory diseases, including the 2003 SARS epidemic, remain only about two months in any given population, although peak incidence and lethality can vary. The epidemiological data suggest that at least two strains of the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 virus have evolved during its migration from Mainland China to Europe. South Korea, Iran, Italy, and Italy’s neighbors were hit by the more dangerous “SKII” variant. While the epidemic in continental Asia is about to end, and in Europe about to level off, the more recent epidemic in the younger US population is still increasing, albeit not exponentially anymore. The peak level will likely depend on which of the strain has entered the U.S. first. The same models that help us to understand the epidemic also help us to choose prevention strategies. Containment of high-risk people, like the elderly, and reducing disease severity, either by vaccination or by early treatment of complications, is the best strategy against a respiratory virus disease. Social distancing or “lockdowns” can be effective during the month following the peak incidence in infections, when the exponential increase of cases ends. Earlier containment of low-risk people merely prolongs the time the virus needs to circulate until the incidence is high enough to initiate “herd immunity”. Later containment is not helpful, unless to prevent a rebound if containment started too early.
https://ratical.org/CoVTrends.pdf
Also suggest taking a look at this interview: https://ratical.org/PerspectivesOnPandemic-II.html
Shorter Birkel: Real men let grandma die, and smile. Consult my plan for details.
Flattening the curve wasn't meant to reduce the total number of cases. It was meant to reduce the number of simultaneous cases so that they don't exceed the capacity of the medical system at which point the death rate goes up because patients can't get care.
I'm glad that Sweden is trying something different so that we can see what happens, but we won't be able to draw any conclusions until this dies down, and maybe not until a couple waves have passed. Even then there will be so many variables involved that it will be hard to draw conclusions.
Why is it that New York is so much worse than the rest of the country. Not a little worse, but much worse. The congested life style can't explain it all. Other congested cities are not nearly as bad. I suspect a different strain, or that a huge number of initial infected people started it in numerous places around the city simultaneously. There has to be something different in New York.
Ken B attended Tim's workshop on mindreading.
What a cvnt.
I have a plan for preventing other people thinking you are arguing in bad faith:
Do not read another author's words and imagine they have written things that are not there.
Otherwise, you reveal you are a bad faith actor.
Just like Ken B.
a huge number of initial infected people started it in numerous places around the city simultaneously
I think it’s this. I read that the genomics show that most New Yorkers have a strain from Europe. I suspect the city was seeded with lots of travelers returning from Europe before the travel ban, and that the reason CA is not as bad is the China travel ban that Trump instituted early.
My plan assumes central planners lack critical information.
My plan is based on more than 70 years of economic literature and observation.
I await the specific points that people can provide to override this obvious point.
"Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus."
Not to pick on you BAG but the guy at Reason who wrote that was wrong.
They tested 1,000 and have results from the first 500.
The 80% number is a misreading of the fact that 80% of the 600 households asked to participate did so.
Nonetheless, the the preliminary results are encouraging.
"Flattening the curve ... was meant to reduce the number of simultaneous cases so that they don't exceed the capacity of the medical system"
Does this also imply that there is such a thing as too much "curve flattening"?
Does this also imply that there is such a thing as too much "curve flattening"?
I suppose it does. The curve for smallpox in the Americas was pretty flat. Until it wasn't.
There would have been economic damage either way but there are many areas in the country that are virtually unaffected. Certainly many businesses in these areas could have avoided the extreme layoffs we are now seeing across the board.
And of course the bigger problem now will be trying to reopen the economy. Since the government officially shut things down, it will take a political act to restart it. The coming shit show of media and Dems reflexively opposing anything Trump proposes will be epic. I'm already seeing some on the left pushing for a fall reopen (read after the election) presumably to maximize damage to Trump. Who wants to take the over/under on the number of Dem governors jumping on the resist! bandwagon when it comes to the restart?
CStanley 2:06
Many commenters here don’t understand that the initial infected population matters. They see the virus more like a taint. If one traveler arrives with it, the city has it and the state has it, in their minds. The difference between that and having a hundred Travellers arrive with it eludes them. This is why you get rhetorical questions about places that have small (but growing) outbreaks, and puzzlement that restrictions should be in place there.
So your plan is to allow the virus to burn through the elderly but to deny that’s what you are doing. Kind of like what they are doing in Sweden. I guess that by looking at the obvious implications of your plan and to point them out, I am “arguing in bad faith” because I don’t simply argue based on what you “intend to happen.”
So my summary was basically correct, your plan was to protect the retirement plans of young people, which it wouldn’t anyway, at a heavy cost in life to the retired. Of course you wouldn’t put it that way.
You can say that you are some kind of god who can make your plans play out according to your intentions regardless of how these ideas have played out elsewhere, but I have no interest in diving into your fantasy world.
You'll have to cite the confusion you allege.
My hypothesis: You cannot read minds.
"So your plan is to allow the virus to burn through the elderly but to deny that’s what you are doing."
Is there a plan that doesn't do that? I thought the only difference was rate of spread.
“ but I have no interest in diving into your fantasy world”
For god's sake don’t ask him about Harry Truman.
Sweden’s economy is in worse shape than ours despite following Birkel’s prescriptions, BTW. Is it in bad faith to point that out? It’s a rhetorical question. No need to answer. I am done.
Well, Ken B, since I have never written anything substantive about Truman, except in previous denials that I have written such, I'm going to once again point out that you are a liar.
Tim,
The leap from 'take precautions but don't destroy the economy on which everybody - including the old - depends' to "burn through the elderly" is fantastic. In order to reciprocate, I believe you are willing to cause everybody else in the world terrific pain for your personal preferences and if that means exerting centralized authority over the lives of others then you want the power to harm others.
Oh, wait. Mine happened to be true. And yours was false.
P.S. Given that I have never referenced my own financial position I must, of course, ask you to retract or prove yourself a liar.
Every economy is worse than America's economy.
When the U.S. sneezes the ROW gets a cold. And the policies we are following means America is bedridden. That means the ROW is inside a pine box.
But millions of deaths worldwide from deprivation mean so little to some folks.
A document from Karolinska hospital in Stockholm (Sweden’s best hospital) reveals that they will no longer give intensive care to patients over 80, those over 70 with 1 underlying health issue, or those over 60 with 2 under-lying health issues.
This comes after the Stockholm region being heavily overloaded by coronavirus patients.
http://latestfromeurope.com/2020/03/29/latest-coronavirus-updates-from-sweden
That’s strange. I was assured that this wouldn’t be the result.
It’s like arguing with Ritmo/ARM that you can’t overrule the law of supply and demand because you have good intentions.
I agree you are arguing for an overrule of supply/demand. Absolutely true. You are arguing people with no income will continue to order supplies that won't make it to market if people are not paid. Finally we found a point of agreement.
Fuck those people, right? The farmers who cannot get paid for their food. Fuck 'em! The truckers who need parts and maintenance services to keep bringing goods to market? Fuck 'em, right!
Wait a second. Who is going to die from deprivation most quickly? My money is on kids and old folks.
You see, when I mention how central planners not only do not - but cannot - have enough information to make the sorts of decisions they are making, I am only basing that on 70 years of economic analysis and observation.
Only all of human history tells us the central planners cannot do well. But only all of it.
"Fuck those people, right? The farmers who cannot get paid for their food. Fuck 'em! “
I never said that, perhaps you are arguing in bad faith. What would it sound like if I claimed that you said about sixty year olds with pre-diabetes and high blood pressure in Sweden “Fuck those people right! Their grandkids were already sick of their stupid stories!”
Is that an example of “good faith argumentation”?
I knew I phrased that clumsily, and I knew you would jump on that clumsy turn of phrase when you knew exactly what I meant because that’s how “good faith” people argue. I am not stung by it, BTW. It really is just of a piece with your whole body of work on this site.
So your approach is essentially ideological. That is utterly unsurprising.
Tim
Notice what is absent from Birkel's plan. Not even mentioned. Testing.
“ That’s strange. I was assured that this wouldn’t be the result.”
I think you were assured it wouldn’t matter.
And to some, it doesn’t.
Ah, but you already typed "burn through the elderly" you're already arguing in bad faith. If it takes me returning fire for you to see yourself clearly, you're welcome.
My approach is the one proven to work across generations. I can see why you resist and argue for bankrupting other people. That seems reasonable.
Testing? That's where you went?
Testing should be done by private companies with as little government interference as possible, of course. Testing should not be centralized either. And that's because government is inefficient. The CDC and NIH responses - including enforcement of rules against producing extra hand sanitizer - are evidence that government operates poorly.
And as for testing, remember when government stopped private companies from testing? Yep, that happened.
But now I will be called ideological because I can observe reality.
"Ah, but you already typed "burn through the elderly" you're already arguing in bad faith”
I provided evidence that that is exactly what your plan would entail, that’s what happened where your prescriptions were largely tried, evidence which you have scrupulously ignored. But I get it, you have to protect your image of yourself as someone who never loses an argument, so if I don’t respond anymore, that means you won, OK?
I was just demonstrating Birkel that neither you nor your plan take the threat to the lives of others seriously. It also shows you are clueless as to what is really required to get most businesses running again.
Oh, I know what restarting a business entails. But then I know you've never done it so I forgive your ignorance.
The fact that none of the projections were even close to any version of reality gives neither of you pause? You couldn't care less about the lives you are actively cheering as they fail. You have one metric for decision making and all the costs be damned. You'll be just fine.
Canada's economy will be eviscerated. The promises the government made will be paid in loonies worth 45¢ and I wish you well.
The folks depending on government promises in the US will fare marginally better. And with a smaller tax base the costs of inflation will be worse and worse.
Hey, it's not like the lives of people in places with bad economies are short and crueler.
Trade-offs.
Ken B said...
"Many commenters here don’t understand that the initial infected population matters ... If one traveler arrives with it, the city has it and the state has it, in their minds."
Ken, if -- and I do say if -- the point is flattening the curve, then the only difference is one of timing. Granny is going to get the Covid, and the only questions are when, and whether there will be a ventilator for her. Do you grasp that?
Maybe Sweden decided that reducing the mortality rate of the olds from 12% to 11% wasn't worth tanking the economy.
Weird.
Almost... Rational.
Jupiter
Well, it’s not just a matter of timing. The existing infrastructure can only do so much test and trace. Too many cases and it will be unable to. But, yes the main effect IS timing, and that is precisely what the people saying “but state X has only a few deaths, why are they enforcing distancing” are getting wrong. They do not understand that unless there is action that state X will catch up. They also don’t understand the opportunity that being a few weeks behind represents.
If only we understood the brilliance of the guy who thought we were facing millions of deaths.
"They also don’t understand the opportunity that being a few weeks behind represents"
Ummm, the opportunity to do what? Send goodbye cards to your friends, before they dope you up and strap you to a free ventilator?
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