... it's still sunrise in the photographs.
I caught that view at 6:21. The actual sunrise time was 6:15. I almost overslept it! Woke up and looked at the clock at 5:50. Very late for me!
१५ एप्रिल, २०२०
At the Lunchtime Café...
... it's still sunrise in the photographs.
I caught that view at 6:21. The actual sunrise time was 6:15. I almost overslept it! Woke up and looked at the clock at 5:50. Very late for me!
याची सदस्यत्व घ्या:
टिप्पणी पोस्ट करा (Atom)
पोस्ट्स
१९८ टिप्पण्या:
That early sunrise is very very much welcome IMO.
Another critique of the IHME models https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1250304069119275009
Note these are not the models used early on, such as Ferguson’s. These models only came out in late March.
Operation Gridlock-Michigan
Facebook page of protest organizer/ tons of great pics and commentary you won't see on the news
Very proud of my fellow Michiganders. I didn't think they'd pull this off. Boy, did they.
Did Democrats even bother to think before attacking President Trump’s pause in WHO funding, or was it strictly knee-jerk?
That early sunrise is very very much welcome
a salubrious corona, over calming waters
Lovely view and I love the earlier sunrises.
Have you not yet deployed the alarm clock?
A gift for Whitmer I fear, Browndog. So many got out of their cars and formed crowds. Looks bad, and gives her cover if the outbreak worsens.
I haven't really followed the covid-19 arguments on the blog, so forgive me for not knowing everyone's relative positions. I am certainly willing to concede that there are people overplaying the risk and people downplaying the risk. But this has basically been my take on the issue.
Given the newness of the virus and the lack of detailed reliable information, we clearly had to rely on preliminary data that suggests it was relatively infectious, that spread was possible without being symptomatic, and that a non-negligible but not significant percentage of infections would result in serious illness. Once it became clear that containment efforts had failed and that community spread was occurring, without the ability to mass test people, do contact tracing, and isolate the infected from the uninfected, you're pretty much only left with basic mitigation procedures for diseases spread through human to human contact. Namely, reduce human contact.
I'll readily concede that there are dumb, overly aggressive attempts to enforce the lock down. But isn't the above a pretty reasonable attempt to mitigate the problem?
as pointed out on the other thread, there is little evidence social distancing much less full lockdown, helps otherwise Michigan wouldn't be no 3 in cases, contact tracing, would be nice, but we didn't have the tests then,
Ann,
You take such beautiful photographs.
"Ken B said...
A gift for Whitmer I fear, Browndog. So many got out of their cars and formed crowds. Looks bad, and gives her cover if the outbreak worsens."
Whoa there. If? Why all of a sudden is thousands of people in close contact an "if?" Up until now that would be a catastrophic certainty.
Farmer: "Given the newness of the virus and the lack of detailed reliable information, we clearly had to rely on preliminary data that suggests it was relatively infectious, that spread was possible without being symptomatic, and that a non-negligible but not significant percentage of infections would result in serious illness."
Actually, as has been documented ad nauseam, the "preliminary data" fed to us via the WHO up to mid January was that there was no human to human transmission at all.
So, you might want to identify the time period you are using for "preliminary data".
Farmer
Yes, very good. Assuming you meant not insignificant.
As several of us have explained over and over, testing and isolation are the best ways to proceed, but they were not available. Crude mass distancing was available. Now we have more tests and phased reopening based on test and isolate is becoming feasible, at least in some places. But the usual suspects reject even that.
Farmer
I think you can see the problem already in just the few responses so far.
I understand the prof’s method in this weblog. She counts on free speech leading us to the proper conclusions over time.
This time, I think, the prof needs to take off the mask and come out and say what has to be said.
This attack on our civil liberties has to end immediately. End the lockdown now. Cease this illegitimate exercise in placing U.S. citizens under house arrest.
Bring criminal charges and civil suits against the politicians trying to enforce these illegal and unconstitutional measures.
The prof has already more or less admitted today that this panic is bullshit. Take off the mask of neutrality and say what has to be said, Ann.
you're pretty much only left with basic mitigation procedures for diseases spread through human to human contact. Namely, reduce human contact...But isn't the above a pretty reasonable attempt to mitigate the problem?
Sure. And reducing human contact requires modifying the behavior of pretty much everybody. But there's arguments to be made about the best way to go about that and how severe and heavy handed the government's role in that should be. Did we absolutely need to completely shut down most of the personal service businesses like salons and restaurants? Or were there other effective ways to limit close contact between people that may have been less economically damaging? Could we have achieved similar results without destroying our economy? Is the virus really as bad as is seems?
And in the end, maybe all this economic damage was unavoidable since even if we didn't go full lockdown maybe lots of people would have been scared into not patronizing the currently lockdowned secotrs of our economy anyway? But maybe not.
from the blunder down under...
"‘Non-Essential Travel’:’ Australian Couple Fined $3,000+ for Posting Last Year’s Vacation Pictures on Facebook"
"Aussie Cops Use Surveillance Helicopter To Track Down Remote Campers"
"basic mitigation procedures for diseases spread through human to human contact. Namely, reduce human contact."
When was the last time we had this level of shutdown? The answer is never. Something that has never been done before fails the "Basic Procedure" test. Basic is washing hands. Not going to work sick. Covering your mouth. Hell, I'll even give you wearing a mask.
This episode is the usual 10 year peak viral event.
The villains in this are the politicians who’ve seized on this event to grab for illegal and unconstitutional power over our lives.
They need to be punished and removed from office.
should we, on a national and global level, establish
a maximum threshold of death, after which we enact a shutdown?
...and no playing favorites re Virus X vs Virus Y, etc
"Shouting Thomas said...
This attack on our civil liberties has to end immediately. End the lockdown now. Cease this illegitimate exercise in placing U.S. citizens under house arrest.
Bring criminal charges and civil suits against the politicians trying to enforce these illegal and unconstitutional measures."
That won't happen. What will is happen is that a growing number off people will simply ignore these rules. And not just these isolation rules. All the fucking rules. They will go out and take what they used to be able to buy. Or commit crimes to be able to buy what they need. People are not going to just stay home and starve to death. Or watch all they have made of their lives go down the drain. And when this happens, I'm will to bet we won't be seeing any new sunrise photos.
ST, while I admire your verve, the sad fact is that most people want this. They believe it is saving their lives, or nurses’ lives, or grandmas’ lives. Even, among the more ignorant, children’s’ lives.
some are more equal then others
Ken B said...
A gift for Whitmer I fear, Browndog. So many got out of their cars and formed crowds. Looks bad, and gives her cover if the outbreak worsens.
Let me calm your fears. There's a reporter from the Detroit Free Press walking the streets, interviewing participants.
the live stream currently has 1.3 million views.
I assure you it's not a bad look, and is only a gift to Whitmer if she has a desire to leave office before the end of her term.
You can access the live stream from my link.
"the sad fact is that most people want this"
I had no idea just how many people harbored secret fantasies of being ravished by a big brawny State.
as pointed out on the other thread, there is little evidence social distancing much less full lockdown, helps otherwise Michigan wouldn't be no 3 in cases,
I'm willing to bet that most of Michigan's cases are in Detroit. I'm further willing to bet that most of them belong to a certain group who erroneously believed that they were immune to the virus and ignored social distancing rules. Hell there are reports that they held block parties.
George, I read this morning a couple fun facts: that auto sales are down 25% and, relatedly, that 57% of the budget of the state of Texas comes from sales taxes.
I’m sure some will argue “pent up demand” but it’s hard to buy a new F150 when your job evaporated last month. When it all snowballs and the public benefits start shrinking and disappearing, does anyone here think the lower quintile doesn’t know you have nice stuff in your nice suburban house?
Browndog
I hope you are right. We both know how the media paints these things. And how useless the state gop can be.
Global control is the Rx for handling those 7 billion surplus people. Instead of quarantine orders for for the sick because they are carriers , we are placed under quarantine orders for all of the well. Instead of tracking chips being injected into the sick carriers, we are being told the World Government must have tracking chips injected into the well ones. They are the dangerous ones.
"does anyone here think the lower quintile doesn’t know you have nice stuff in your nice suburban house?"
Ha! Jokes on them. The amount of nice stuff in our nice house is limited.
Namely, reduce human contact.
I'm all for the idea of reducing human contact, but this isn't that.
Whitmer has often repeated the idea that if every human could just freeze in place and not contact another human for 14 days, this virus would go away. It's pablum, but I think she's trying to make that happen.
I'm willing to bet that most of Michigan's cases are in Detroit.
I'll do you one better-
I'm willing to bet that most of Michigan's cases are in nursing homes in Detroit.
Tyrants always tell you they are doing it for your own good.
except in Michigan
I’m am getting seriously pissed about living under house arrest.
Ken B: "Browndog. I hope you are right. We both know how the media paints these things. And how useless the state gop can be."
How can you say the MI GOP party is useless? I'll have you know it is comprised of many LLR's that...er...uh....yeah. You've got a strong point there.
will Lansing be the new Lexinton/Concord for Les Deplorables?
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing the songs of angry men?
It is the music of the people
Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes!
Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Somewhere beyond the barricade
Is there a world you long to see?
Then join in the fight
That will give you the right to be free!
Dictator Cuomo issued an executive order that starting tomorrow everyone must wear a mask in public. Starting tomorrow, I'll be ignoring his silly ass order.
I will strongly recommend that any police officer feeling like playing Gestapo stay away from me. It will end badly. The question ultimately being the one that applies to all laws and edicts.
Is the policeman willing for one of us to die to enforce the dictators edict?
@Curious George:
When was the last time we had this level of shutdown? The answer is never. Something that has never been done before fails the "Basic Procedure" test. Basic is washing hands. Not going to work sick. Covering your mouth. Hell, I'll even give you wearing a mask.
Well when was the last time we faced a comparable threat? This was a new virus with no known treatments or vaccines. The swine flu in 2009 was a variant of H1N1 and there was already a great deal of information about it. A test was developed within two weeks of the virus being identified, and it took about six months to go from development to market of vaccines. Hospitals had also been prepared due to earlier concerns over SARS and bird flu. The swine flu was also less deadly than the standard seasonal flu.
chase manhattan's prize investment
I really got to look into this “black market” I hear people going on about.
Now you've done it.
Yes, it is time to rebel against our masters.
should we, on a national and global level, establish
a maximum threshold of death, after which we enact a shutdown?
Consider everything the US has done in the last 20 years to protect ourselves from terrorism despite the fact that terrorism has killed a minuscule amount of Americans.
My Life Is Murder (2019- ) has a smart female detective and her smart lady understudy solving murders that the handsome police detective has sought help with.
Australian, which gets plus points for avoiding scenery cliches, and for diphthongs.
But it's a woman's idea of what smart looks like. Sort of an intuition that solves crimes where men have failed.
In addition Lucy Lawless plays a hot lady who's not actually hot, so there's no competition. Like men watching testosterone action movies, the female viewer thinks "I could do that."
There's no danger you'll binge-watch it.
I'm most of the way through and there's been a murder after a disease and a murder after a spoiled wedding.
Consider everything the US has done in the last 20 years to protect ourselves from terrorism despite the fact that terrorism has killed a minuscule amount of Americans.
Agreed. But even on 9/11, when we didn't know who else was out there, we weren't ordered to stay home.
So two studies out today showing hydroxychloroquine to be a bust. Thoughts?
and it took about six months to go from development to market of vaccines.
We didn't know 2 months in that there would be a vaccine in a few more months. That's the thing about hindsight. I wonder what the hindsight will say about all of this.
"But even on 9/11, when we didn't know who else was out there, we weren't ordered to stay home."
In fact, weren't we ordered to go shopping?
(Personally, I'd rather stay home than go shopping, but that's just me.)
This morning I went to nearby university campus, which is closed and largely deserted. I walked with my dog for 1 1/2 hours and I never came within 50 feet of another individual -- I saw a jogger from a distance of about 100 feet who turned off the path we were on before we met, and I saw two bicyclists on a bicycle path near where I was walking, from a distance of over 50 feet. I saw a few construction workers and gardeners (mowing the grass) also from long distances. I was passed by two cars that had (obviously) people in them. I did not wear a mask. I would have resented being stopped by a police to come within an unsafe distance to require me to show ID and to write me a citation. I let my dog off the leash to chase some deer in the woods. I would have resented a citation for that as well. I'm not being a scofflaw or a revolutionary. I have a bandanna mask in my pocket in the event that I see person I must pass close to. My experience is that common courtesy is on display (as the jogger who turned off our common path so that we would not pass each other -- just as I was getting ready to modify my planned route for the same reason). And common sense is on display (usually -- I live in a college town). Law and order will be strengthened by common sense and common courtesy. Law and order will be eroded, and out health endangered by rigid police-state tactics such as those being adopted in NY State.
"our health endangered" not "out health endangered".
“ Have you not yet deployed the alarm clock?”
I used it a couple times after oversleeping, but didn’t have it on today. I forget to put it on.
"J. Farmer said...
@Curious George:Well when was the last time we faced a comparable threat? This was a new virus with no known treatments or vaccines. The swine flu in 2009 was a variant of H1N1 and there was already a great deal of information about it. A test was developed within two weeks of the virus being identified, and it took about six months to go from development to market of vaccines. Hospitals had also been prepared due to earlier concerns over SARS and bird flu. The swine flu was also less deadly than the standard seasonal flu."
You used basic. Quit your stupid tap dancing. There is nothing basic about the measures being taken. Nothing.
Gavin Newsome has come out with a plan to re-open Cali. It is pie-in-the-sky. If we wait to open up until we achieve his milestones, California will soon become the poorest state in the nation.
Our "rulers" are playing Calvinball. Of course, they are Calvin, changing the rules to suit their whims (and desire for control), and we are Hobbes, at their mercy and losing.
The logic is simple, people:
Either this virus is uniquely virulent, infecting everyone by leaping across interpersonal space no matter how great the gap; lurking on surfaces barely touched by silently-infected people for days; lingering in the breath plume of runners for hours (who also must be asymptomatic carriers, because they are obviously not short of breath), inwhich case many, many, many, many people must be infected...in which case this virus really isn't lethal at all.... OR
It is LETHAL LETHAL LETHAL (and not just to well-defined risk groups who can easily isolate themselves), but not spread very far and wide, OR ELSE THE STREETS WOULD BE LITTERED WITH CORPSES, but difficult to spread.
Which is it?
It is not LETHAL LETHAL LETHAL and CONTAGIOUS CONTAGIOUS CONTAGIOUS or, given that it has been in the US since at least the end of January and social distancing did not begin until late March, WE WOULD ALL BE DEAD AND THIS CONVERSATION WOULD BE MOOT AND OCCURRING IN THE AFTER LIFE.
Ok, I’m going to find the way to fight back.
I’m not putting up with this shit from petty tyrants any longer.
"J. Farmer said...
Consider everything the US has done in the last 20 years to protect ourselves from terrorism despite the fact that terrorism has killed a minuscule amount of Americans."
Has any of it caused the economic destruction that these shutdowns have and will? You think of yourself as some big thinker, but shit like this proves otherwise.
Well I screwed up my modifying clauses. It lingers for hours in the breath plumes of runners--who may or may not be running for hours. It lurks on surfaces for days, not on surfaces barely touched for days (although it apparently does that, clever bastard).
Protesters in Lansing brandishing seed packets.
"John said...
So two studies out today showing hydroxychloroquine to be a bust. Thoughts?"
What two studies?
walter,
What would be really excellent is if Michael Bloomberg appeared among the Lansing protestors to teach them how to plant those seeds!
one that involves 150 people, and includes hcq sulfate?
"narciso said...
one that involves 150 people, and includes hcq sulfate?"
Wrong link bud
I didn't cite the Bloomberg spam, just the dubious assumptions in the study,
Nice catch!
NY Gov decrees we must wear masks that are unavailable for public sale!
This has really spiraled out of control.
It’s time for our government to fear us.
Blogger walter said...
Protesters in Lansing brandishing seed packets.
"Find the cost of Freedom
Buried in the Ground"
do the root of these seeds of Liberty need um..."refreshing" ?
Get this all out of your systems, y'all...tonight's salon will not include Chinese Lung AIDS caterwauling.
John
I have seen nothing about that. Link?
Trump campaign should be passing these out like crazy
wear these!
ST
This is your first encounter with government fuckwittery?
Anne-I-Am said...Get this all out of your systems, y'all...tonight's salon will not include Chinese Lung AIDS caterwauling.
--
Not how that works, Anne.
@Ken B
No, I was one of the first to turn against the Vietnam war in 1966.
I wrote a series of articles in my hometown newspaper explaining my opposition and explaining, accurately, why the U.S. would lose that war and what losing would do to us.
I was 16 years old.
This is my first experience with submitting.
Walter,
You can try.
Maria Pescaru said...
Great and successful photo.
there are plenty of other topics that can be discussed.
There is no other topic to be discussed.
Citizens. Rise up against your masters and fight back!
Greg Gutfeld just said getting the economy going again is going to take a certain amount of risk. That's true, and a great point. Are we trying to say things have to be risk-free before we get going again?
"The blog shall have two great lights-the greater light to govern the day and the lesser light to govern the night."
Walter,
Locate your sense of humor before you respond again.
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”
― C. S. Lewis
"I pensieri di Zo
Sono raggi di sole
Che irradiano tutta la stanza
Sono stimoli nuovi
Vestiti per terra
Un dito di polvere vecchia
La freschezza vitale
Di ogni risveglio indeciso
Sono il tempo che scrive
I suoi fatti sul suo dolce viso..." Fiorella Mannoia
ohn said...
So two studies out today showing hydroxychloroquine to be a bust. Thoughts?
Where? Come on, don't post these things with no reference.
Compagnie...
Che bello. Molto grazie.
Times of Israel:
"A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”
While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.
But Ben-Israel said the figures — notably from countries, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Sweden, which did not take such radical measures to shutter their economies — proved his point. (He also posted a Hebrew paper to this effect on Facebook, with graphs showing the trajectories.)"
Apparently John heard about those studies somewhere.
Detroit... Predominately morbidly obese, with multiple comorbidities, elderly black fatals. It is what viruses do. Been kicking around USA since Early December, probably.
Listen to Amesh Adalja, M.D.: Comparing COVID-19 to past pandemics, preparing for the future, and reasons for optimism from The Peter Attia Drive on Apple Podcasts.
I heard through the grapevine
No longer will I chloro-quine
Oo, I heard it through the grapevine
Once it became clear that containment efforts had failed and that community spread was occurring, without the ability to mass test people, do contact tracing, and isolate the infected from the uninfected, you're pretty much only left with basic mitigation procedures
This scenario seems best to isolate the finite definable group. Over age 65 and/or those with ~6 defined co-morbidity conditions. Locking down the most at risk, fixes this pandemic. The huge push for mass testing, looks like a McGuffin. COVID is not deadly to healthy souls. This is the path to getting our lives back, and out of the control of not very bright bureaucrats
In swine country we used to have SPF breeding herds. Specific Pathogen Free. All traffic was precisely coordinated. All persons showered in and out. All persons passed through foot baths at every passage way. We know how to isolate people safely.
Amesh... no lightweight here. https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/adalja/
Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern
People here don't usually click on my links, but this is a pretty important one.
BTW... nosafespaces.com promo code sale25 gets you rental of the movie at %25 discount today only. Great video 1hr. 40min Prager-Corolla presentation.
Heyboom,
I saw that earlier. Not that it will make a bit of difference to the petty tyrants enjoying their taste of absolute power.
This one HCQ alone.
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
·
9h
Latest evidence hydroxychloroquine is not effective once in cytokine storm.
Study of 181 patients finds no difference in transfers to ICU or death between HCQ vs standard therapy.
Authors note pneumonia & cytokine storm markers present BEFORE treatment.
LINK
From one of his earlier threads:
James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
3/ Secondly, although HCQ has anti-inflammatory/immunosuppressive properties, it is probably minimally effective at inhibiting cytokine storm/CRS in late stage COVID-19.
Alternative agents such as the anti-IL-6 monoclonal antibody Tocilizumab may be more effective in late cases.
4:50 PM · Apr 13, 2020
I was talking to a friend today and we agreed that now that the ice is broken on this type of response that it will become the norm for whatever "crisis" the government decides we're in.
Which is exactly what Governor Newsom is setting up with his plan to re-open California. He's creating the framework for giving the state the power to shut us down for any reason they wish.
In the final analysis the COVID-19 data will show that nursing home patients, hospice patients and the morbidly overweight are vulnerable. That is, of course, the same group susceptible to the influenza and pneumonia.
On the plus side, deaths attributed to influenza, pneumonia, COPD and heart failure will be down.
The problem is the people who say we need to stay locked-down for months and months, but that even if we do, once we open up, within a couple of weeks, the cases and deaths are going to skyrocket anyway hundreds of thousands, no matter when we re-open.
If the link was about HCQ in Cytokine storm, it may prevent the development if taken early. I have seen a couple reports that it is effective in that scenario but I am not at all surprised to hear that it is not.
That is not the purpose. It should be taken early. My paramedic son who is diabetic type I, has a supply I got to him in March, early. It is to take if he has a medic call with a patient effected. His family also has enough. If any are exposed or symptomatic, they are to start right away.
Ca gov Newsome announced checks going to illegals ,a token $500.00.
"Dictator Cuomo issued an executive order that starting tomorrow everyone must wear a mask in public. Starting tomorrow, I'll be ignoring his silly ass order. "
Since you can't fucking BUY a mask, how exactly is this order going to be enforced? Are the cop all wearing masks? No. So if one fucks with you, just start breathing their way and letting them know you're doing it. You're just breathing; which is a requirement to answering their questions. So it's not like you're a terrorist or anything. Spreading the disease amongst them.
John Cardillo
@johncardillo
1h
If they’re “undocumented” how do you know where to send the money?
And why not give those addresses to @ICEgov
?
Quote Tweet
Stefanie Dazio
@steffdaz
· 2h
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (@AP) — California governor says state's virus assistance will include giving $500 each to 150,000 undocumented adult immigrants.
Thanks to Walter (at 4:58) for providing information about the HCQ study, showing it is "minimally effective" in some cases. I think what is needed to convince HCQ enthusiasts (if that's the right term, and I am one) is not a study that shows there are some circumstances where it doesn't work. I think I might be convinced if I knew the drug had been tried fairly early in the treatment of the disease, and especially if I knew had been tried with the additional treatment(s) believed to promote its effectiveness. I am convinced by commenters here that zinc must be co-administered, and I have heard about co-administering an anti-biotic (?) zithromax (?), and/or something called a z-pack which (I'm guessing) might be zinc and zithromax. I guess it's fairly obvious that I'm not a medical expert on these; but I am an intelligent and open-minded person who is open to being convinced that HCQ is just not what I hope it is. I think what we enthusiasts believe is that if it is administered early and with the correct co-treatments, and at the correct dosage, it can be successful in some (many?) cases. And that the "side-effects" are acceptably small (which we believe or hope is supported by the fact that it is approved as safe treatment for malaria, and has been widely used for that.
"In the final analysis the COVID-19 data will show that nursing home patients, hospice patients and the morbidly overweight are vulnerable. That is, of course, the same group susceptible to the influenza and pneumonia."
Of course. And while most people compare Wuhan just with flu, flu plus "respiratory diseases" kill well over 100K. Real cause of death, then as now: old age.
Wuhan risk to the under-25 crowd: barely measurable, unlike with flu.
Within reason, we can be prudent about nursing homes. We can isolate capable seniors. Asthma, diabetes: isolate. Everyone else, back to work.
I don't know if this has made the rounds here yet, Post-Normal Pandemics and the quest for numerical prediction in the face of uncertain parameters.
https://steps-centre.org/blog/postnormal-pandemics-why-covid-19-requires-a-new-approach-to-science/
sorry no hyperlink.
Yeah, it's passing strange.
In the face of an unprecedented medical crisis for which we are very ill-prepared, some law enforcement officials make spur-of-the-moment decisions based on 0 info and release people from jails . . . Some mayors and governors make spur-of-the-moment decisions based on almost 0 info and with blithe relish pick essential and non-essential permitted activities for the citizenry . . . that word is more ironic everyday.
Narr
At least we can see who got a hard- or wide-on
I think that's the one, isn't it curious how they demand perfection with hcq therapy, but with these puffer fish flatlines, its fine even when it apparently doesn't work (as apparently happens in Michigan,) with all the collateral damage,
Walter
The link is broken but I found the paper.
According to the CDC, the U.S. has experienced an estimated 24,000 deaths from regular old influence so far this flu season, which began Sept. 29, 2019. By way of comparison, there were an estimated 61,000 flu deaths in the 2017-2018 season, but the number might have been as high as 95,000 based on a 95% confidence interval.
As of yesterday, the CDC was reporting 24,582 deaths due to Covid-19.
So roughly 48,500 total deaths from both regular old flu (ROF) and Covid-19 so far this flu season.
The 24,000 deaths from ROF is a relatively low number by historical standards. In fact, the CDC ranks this season's flu activity as "low".
This makes me wonder how much ROF is being mischaracterized as Covid-19.
BTW it is very hard to tease these numbers out of the CDC website. They tend to bury them deep in layers charts, graphs, and generally useless information.
Again, makes you wonder.
This makes me wonder how much ROF is being mischaracterized as Covid-19.
Especially in New York which has reclassified a bunch of deaths,.
Oops. Here 'tis:
LINK
Should be "influenza", not "influence".
Damn spellchecker.
From above article:
The mortal blow seems to have been followed by a slow, agonizing death. Despite the truly historic mobilization of science, our knowledge in crucial areas is still swamped by ignorance, especially on the sources of the virus but also on its progress and future outcomes. The expertise employed in COVID-19 policy advice builds on speculative assumptions on the virus itself, and how far it’s possible to control and predict how people behave.
Known unknowns include the real prevalence of the virus in the population; the role of asymptomatic cases in the rapid spread of the virus; the degree to which humans develop immunity; the dominant exposure pathways; the disease’s seasonal behaviour; the time to deliver global availability of an effective vaccine or cure; and the nonlinear response of individuals and collectives to the social distancing interventions in the complex system of communities interconnected across multiple scales, with many tipping points, and hysteresis loops (implying that society may not be able to rebound to the state it was in before the coronavirus interventions took place). These deep uncertainties make quantitative predictions speculative and unreliable.
‘There is no number-answer’
Instead, following a pattern well known to PNS practitioners, predictions which purportedly “jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to action” can only be obtained by mathematical models that produce crisp numbers, even though these numbers have been obtained at the cost of artificially compressing the associated uncertainty. “There is no number-answer to your question,” explodes an angry medical expert to the politician trying to force a number out of him.
Blogger Josephbleau said...
I don't know if this has made the rounds here yet, Post-Normal Pandemics and the quest for numerical prediction in the face of uncertain parameters.
https://steps-centre.org/blog/postnormal-pandemics-why-covid-19-requires-a-new-approach-to-science/
Post-normal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science
something called a z-pack which (I'm guessing) might be zinc and zithromax.
"Z Pack" is a 5 day supply of Azithromycin, a macrolide-type antibiotic. It is taken once a day,
I still see nothing in medical literature about zinc although zinc has been used for the common cold and sore throat. It is also used as a zinc oxide topically in wound healing.
Blogger Jersey Fled said...
"This makes me wonder how much ROF is being mischaracterized as Covid-19."
There was an article in the Milwaukee JS a couple of weeks ago about the death of a 79 year old man who had been in hospice care for 3 years. His death was attributed to COVID-19. After 3 years in hospice care????
"Are we trying to say things have to be risk-free before we get going again?"
In this context there is no risk-free option or approach, only trade-offs.
Michael K
The theory of how chloroquine might disrupt the virus is that the virus enters the cell wrapped in a bit of cell wall. Within that globule it hijacks a protein. That highjacking is inhibited by changing the pH. Chloroquine is a zincophore and pumps zinc into the globule. This changes the pH. So extra zinc might be useful.
Thanks to Michael K who corrected my incorrect understanding of "Z-pack".
Also, following the link that Walter provided: "20.2% patients in the HCQ group
were transferred to the ICU or died within 7 days vs 22.1% in the no-HCQ group (16 vs 21
events, relative risk [RR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.47–1.80). In the HCQ group, 2.8% of the patients
died within 7 days vs 4.6% in the no-HCQ group (3 vs 4 events, RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.13–2.89)"
Personally, I'd rather be in the HCQ group even if it is not better in a statistically significant way.
Since you can't fucking BUY a mask, how exactly is this order going to be enforced?
You MAKE a mask. Just like you cook your own food. Tie a bandanna or t-shirt around your face. That is, if you want to be allowed into grocery stores and other places.
Dem Governors are gonna slow walk the reopenings. They hate Trump so much, they will destroy jobs and livelihoods out of spite. But many idiots support this, so that's life.
The glimmer of hope comes from Trump and states such as Tex & Fla led by GOP governors who are itchin to reopen. There are exceptions. The GOP governor of Ohio is a total dumb-ass.
The worst 4 states by total deaths are:
NY
NJ
Mich
LA
That's 2/3 of all US deaths. Each have Dem governors. Maybe, Cuomo has common sense, will see the impending financial ruin, and will be pressured to reopen by the finance guys of the state. Hope springs eternal.
The rest of the country need to move forward.
Let them work!
@BAG: watch Baker in MA, he'll be cowed into staying closed too.
“Of all tyrannies, ...
That's from a very strange essay, where he's speaking out against "humanitarian punishment" and, if I understand it correctly, he favors a harsher punishment for criminals than is needed to correct their behavior and/or protect society, hence the mention of "cured" (of bad behavior) in the rest of the paragraph containing that quote ...
"...approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. Their very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be ‘cured’ against one’s will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level with those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals. But to be punished, however severely, because we have deserved it, because we ‘ought to have known better’, is to be treated as a human person made in God’s image."
I think it's similar to the argument between the chaplain and warden in Clockwork Orange, and Alex's attempted "cure" regardless of his lack of repentance for his crimes.
This scenario seems best to isolate the finite definable group. Over age 65 and/or those with ~6 defined co-morbidity conditions. Locking down the most at risk, fixes this pandemic.
I'm over 65 (same age as Althouse) and very healthy. I have no intention of "locking down" because locking down means: no visits from family, no visits with friends, total isolation. F**k that.
I have no intention of "locking down"
#metoo.
I'm 68 and sometimes morbid, but not to excess.
"F**k that."
Fine. I suspect Althouse would say the same. That sentiment among America's entitled seniors has helped to bring about the catastrophe that is now unfolding.
But the realistic response from younger Americans, confronted with vulnerable groups unwilling to make a special sacrifice to protect themselves, not that any CYA politician will dare antagonize a key voting constituency, should be: f**k that.
But instead of no visits -- the horror! -- we idle one-fourth of the economy, waste trillions, fire tens of millions, destroy businesses, and interrupt the studies of children.
And here we are.
I'm over 65 (same age as Althouse) and very healthy. I have no intention of "locking down" because locking down means: no visits from family, no visits with friends, total isolation. F**k that.
The "lock down" protections are two directional. Keeping the highest risk persons safe, it also keeps the free rangers from carrying the virus into at risk groups. I doubt the bureaucrats, wallowing in their newly gained power, will relinquish their control over the entire population, by selecting out the few, that need protecting. I can dream. It is logical and effective though.
"Dictator Cuomo issued an executive order that starting tomorrow everyone must wear a mask in public."
Since she is apparently based in NY, as long as Martha isn't made to mask up. She don't need no niqāb on her face. But even if she did, she'd still put people at risk of getting short of breath.
Nd-Nd : And what is this emotion you humans call "wuv"?
Lrrr : Surely it says "love".
Nd-Nd : No, "wuv", with an Earth "W" -- behold.
Lrrr : This concept of wuv confuses and infuriates us!
That sentiment among America's entitled seniors has helped to bring about the catastrophe that is now unfolding.
I don't understand this. I don't see seniors, aside from politicians, demanding everyone sequester. We are retired. It's easy for us.
The hysteria is fed by Democrats and by the rare cytokine storm cases in 409 year olds.
Llur from the planet omicron persei 8,
President Trump is going to use his emergency powers to adjourn congress; and make Recess appointments
Let's hear from you Never Trumpers, how this is UNCONSTITUTIONAL* and that we are NOT in a state of emergency**!
UNCONSTITUTIONAL* Article II Section 3 he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper
state of emergency**Declaring a National Emergency Concerning the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak[132] (Proclamation 9994)
That highjacking is inhibited by changing the pH. Chloroquine is a zincophore and pumps zinc into the globule. This changes the pH. So extra zinc might be useful.
I've read that but not in any scientific literature I've found. If you have an example, provide a link. I'm not saying it isn't possible.
The only link I've seen is to a YouTube video.
40 year olds. 409 would be a bit old.
She.
.I.
It is not for this that I waited alone,
Listless afore a feeble fire,
The sun impatient to have done.
All the lighting bad no matter its source,
The coarse street shoppers shouting excitement
In fears oblivion: I was patient,
Reading horrid Milton, sipping cheap tea,
Smoking a haze of desire in troubled Pandamonia.
And those ‘after thoughts’ circling a vortex
In the blackened hole of incurable want.
.II.
To long and a chair to comfortable
Excusing the silence of passive desistance:
I claimed ignorance, then corruption,
Then the impossible greatness of the task
And so destiny: fated thus
To the eternal Ovidian whine,
Claiming sanctuary in exile.
The dark obliged, the nocturnal vigil,
The lack of vitamin D:
Cold, an empty gullet, the night.
.III.
One Sunday I ventured out:
The street was the same shabby bin
Of flowering tin and copulent flies.
I discovered the polluted sea
As I had discovered her before:
From the strand and at a distance,
Reflecting a sapien backside,
Resigned, as passive as a slave,
To complexions blare. And so,
Seeing the mutual indifference
Of man and water, I did not protest,
I certainly was not shocked,
I retreated back to my door:
Another forty days vigil
In the barrel of my bed,
Expecting Alexander
With a preprepared, laconic tongue
So to list instructions
Confused but tolerable.
.IV.
Next the eye saw around
The hostility of the times,
The self sacrifice requisite to repair
Deep holes in the fabric
Torn in an uncaring glance.
This was She who held the power to maim,
Taking what accident had gathered
In a forceful hands fine brutality.
Pain of a posterior enervation
Left the relics of charred anatomy
Scattered as an after burn
Whether the death, the caput mortuum
Of an alchemical change
Or the autograph of a miracle –
Who knows?
.v.
Who dances in the Elysian fields
Or laughs in the alley of posterity?
No songs past memories rest: all, all a ball
Of billowing winds wrapping chaos
In the cries of vulgar sentience;
Or the mechanics of bombardment
And the assorted atom contending
For upper air in feverish necessities,
Scratched epitaphs of void.
Death is a place past illusion
Where permanents and eternity
Are finally confounded
As dust across a plain
When a plain has gone.
Dr K>?
I figured you meant particularly clean people : )
In other news, international laughingstock and Man of Mystery Barry Soetoro endorses national laughingstock Joe Biden for, let me check here, yes, the Democrat Party candidate for President. Joe, we are told, has hopes to finally hit the big time and rescue all of us from a fate too hideous to describe, at least by him.
I'm excited.
narciso @6:38 PM: "Llur from the planet omicron persei 8, "
I lack context here. Were you signing an invisible comment with your real name, by any chance?
Gotta be careful with that, friend. There are some weirdos commenting on this blog, you never know what they might do with personally identifiable information.
The Age Of Darkness.
The chatter on the wind is the irritation
Of the street: drunks or illiterate poor
Claiming back bitter heritage of dark
Or barbaric recompense of pillage.
The habited Romans on their destined sword
Of solitary circlings; burnt books,
Artefacts in whose flames is seen the death
Of some peculiar, personal march
To some incongruous goal. Not sacrificed
But burnt with the words and flaming tongue
Taking all in a lying confession
Of confounded biographies.
The time heralded on an ox skin drum
And thus brought to a passive, anonymous march,
A prayer of strangers.
the large green alien lizard from futurama,
Here's one article that refers to a French study:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/new-french-study-hydroxychloroquine/index.html
(I will read up on posting live links, but for now...)
Walter what you don't seem to get ( Doc Mike correct me if I am wrong) is that if you are having a cytokine storm from no matter the underlying cause, you are in a critical care ICU situation and are more likely to die than not. Once you are there, it's a very short hop to multiple organ failure. Intubation and sedation for ventilation, anti-inflammatory medications, antibiotics, vasopressors, dialysis and more. Then gather around because it's all but over. So HCQ plus zinc and ZPack for me if I were to be diagnosed with corona before as a high risk individual I get to the point of having symptons. Like Trump says, " what do you have to lose"?
Hitchhikers monologue.
.I.
A thin, weeping mist squeaks along the grass
Shrouding the bulbous shadows of mice
Again busy building a new home:
The aching legs, tired of their twenty four hour fit,
Throw the gauntlet of choice to the brain,
The tired arm annoyingly nags to be parted:
On the aged bench, wet and dulled in the rain,
When the years have marked me,
Will pleasure replace this pain?
Could I say: “Here I have lived.”?
Scuttling like some odd, savage animal
Through the unbrushed matting of motorway grass
I am already sick of my naturalness,
Of my cowardice, my stopping
Before the butt beating guards
And my inability to come down to mortality.
Somehow the sweated fever of my youth
May seem peculiar to one, a shameful perversion,
An indescribable immorality, that which is not done.
Always that which is not done, always the odd sharpness.
.II.
Crying like a baby among friends
At the dullness of their desire
I’m the odd one here I feel.
So much hope, so much happiness
In its failure: why this contentment?
Contentment breeds inaction,
Contemplation, love of the lines,
An artist eye and moribund stare.
Sometimes, a rabbit among stalks,
I wallow in the dough
Of unfulfillable desire:
I admit it and this is a sloth.
But one face of benediction was turned
And then I was happy?
Involved in oblivious activity,
Is this without blindness?
.III.
Her benediction was not
Always so bright:
Not the polish of the mirror
Or intenseness of light
But a sense in which
I was too inattentive to stare.
Crawling from the womb
I was shut in its sack,
Carried, it seems, through
A few hundred years,
I was always tempted
To crawl right back
Dulled in parties with
Talk and whisky and beers.
I was so wrong
From the beginning
It makes me laugh.
But triumph in defeat
I am no Christ.
.IV.
Everything seems beautiful:
Should I not be more radical?
Should I not spit and curse
Like a saint? Call for the end
Of everything that’s not vital
Or not coloured most vividly?
Things are ugly, too,
But what is ugly will
Dully reflect the whole,
Is, somehow, a more tempered beauty.
Even in the blackest pit
I carried my mirror,
Dashing with light
The groaning of its roots.
.V.
Sick of my love of the game
I smack him round the chops…
Too much akin, too much revealed,
Perhaps my ambition
Will take the Devils part:
Who will be my parricide?
Who wants to peer in the bone?
Let’s dig at the pate
Of this smug fellow’s devil
To find if the old sixes are there.
Funny the Devil without draws
Being dragged down the stare.
Regarding treatments, I know that they were trying convalescent plasma treatments over a week ago with some patients in NY. I've not heard any results myself- anyone else?
Want a little word salad with your meat?
OFFICIAL WHITE HOUSE TRANSCRIPT. His answer is UNEDITED.
The question was: “Is there a priority to get testing at food-processing plants all across the country?”
———————————————————-
REPORTER: I wanted to ask you specifically about one industry in particular, and that’s food-processing plants. Is there a priority to get testing at food-processing plants all across the country?
TRUMP: "Well, you’re asking that because of what happened — it’s a fair question, too — what happened in Denver. Because in Denver, I’ve never seen — I said, “What’s going on?” We’re looking at this graph where everything’s looking beautiful and it’s coming down and then you got this one spike. It’s — I said, “What happened to Denver?”
And many people, very quickly, and they — by the way, they were on it like, so fast, you wouldn’t believe it. They knew every aspect. They had people go and — not only testing, “Who did you see? Where were you? How many people did you meet? Were you out to dinner in somebody else’s home? Where were you?” Where did — where did this number of people come from? How did — they are totally on it.
Now, this just happened. I just saw it this morning. I’m looking at everything smooth, going down, topping out. And then you have this one spike in Denver. It’s like, where did this come from?
So we’ll be looking at that. And we don’t want cases like that happening. This was — but this — this is the kind of thing can happen. This is very complex.
This is a very brilliant enemy. You know, it’s a brilliant enemy. They develop drugs like the antibiotics. You see it. Antibiotics used to solve every problem. Now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it. And they’re constantly trying to come up with a new — people go to a hospital and they catch — they go for a heart operation — that’s no problem, but they end up dying from — from problems. You know the problems I’m talking about. There’s a whole genius to it.
We’re fighting — not only is it hidden, but it’s very smart. Okay? It’s invisible and it’s hidden, but it’s — it’s very smart. And you see that in a case like a Denver.
But, you know, I think we’re doing well, and they’re on Denver like you wouldn’t believe. I came in this morning; it was a flurry. I said what’s going on? They said, “Denver.” I said, “What happened to Denver?” Because Denver was doing pretty well. And they’ve got that under control. But, yeah, that would be a case where you do some very big testing."
I'm often not here, because I hide, I turn off any means of communication, phones, whatever, because I'm ashamed - but I know and you know I write like a fallen angle - Miss Althouse, but I like you, I like you a lot
Seek professional help.
And you have permision, if you need it, to use anything I write, onyour blog, as you wish - you don't that permision - but we're talking about brit and US law, which is confusing to the best, especiecially the former - and not that you would want to use anything of mine, just saying, if
It certianly wasn't neccesary, the sexond !.
Although I agree the first was indeed necesary.
Tough word. Meaning becomes clearer over time.
I wouldn't object to Bill Cosby being let out of jail. The extra judicial punishment and shame he suffered, while nowhere near that of Kavanaugh, was only a tad less bad than the prison sentence. I don't think he'll ever be a recidivist. Maybe he can wear an ankle bracelet to make sure that he stays within the grounds of his mansion....While we're in a merciful mood, why not give Paul Manafort an ankle bracelet release. I'm pretty sure that they're releasing non-violent offenders with worse records than he has....Anyone want to argue humanitarian release for Weinstein?
Cubanbob,
CRS (cytokine release syndrome), aka a cytokine storm, is NOT invariably fatal. Hematologists use medications to treat acute leukemia that are notorious for causing CRS. It is expected and dealt with. They don't lost every one of those patients, or even very many of them--not to CRS, at least. They anticipate it and treat it. Quit spreading false information that panics people.
CRS is staged and graded, like any other adverse event. Grades 1-2 are minor and manageable in an outpatient setting. Grades 3-4 require hospitalization. Grade 5 is fatal. Hemes don't like to see Grade 4, but they deal with it. Grades 1-2 are actually a sign that a med is working.
Perhaps our pulmonologists/critical care docs need to talk to the specialists who see CRS all the time--in already critically ill and immune compromised patients.
Bay Area Guy said...
Dem Governors are gonna slow walk the reopenings. They hate Trump so much, they will destroy jobs and livelihoods out of spite. But many idiots support this, so that's life.
The glimmer of hope comes from Trump and states such as Tex & Fla led by GOP governors who are itchin to reopen. There are exceptions. The GOP governor of Ohio is a total dumb-ass.
The worst 4 states by total deaths are:
NY
NJ
Mich
LA
And most of the deaths in NY, not just a bare majority, but the vast majority, are in counties that reliably vote Democrat. But the sparsely populated counties, like mine, are being subject to one size fits all decisions because the dictator Cuomo is an idiot. I'm heavily leaning towards actively campaigning for the Constitution Party candidate in the next gubernatorial election, even though they tend to be flakes.
Found out yesterday about boat ramps being closed. That will not stop one single case of ANY infectious disease from being transferred one one person to another. It is 100% completely nonsensical from a public health standpoint, and completely indefensible from a constitutional standpoint.
Like the determination that garden seeds are non-essential and are banned. An arbitrary and capricious indefensible from any standpoint decision.
Michael K.,
See Zn2+ Inhibits Coronavirus and Arterivirus RNA Polymerase Activity In Vitro and Zinc Ionophores Block the Replication of These Viruses in Cell Culture
Published on November 4, 2010. There are six authors.
Before I go into what the paper says, it's important to emphasize that taking zinc tablets, by themselves, is not likely to help much or at all to defend against the coronavirus. Normally your body does a good job of keeping the cytoplasmic concentration of zinc ions quite low.
This is an in vitro study. They used pyrithione to get zinc ions into the cytoplasm (don't do that, by the way, there is a reason why are not talking about taking pyrithione). They elevated the cytoplasmic concentration of zinc ions to 2 microM.
At that concentration the activity of viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) was dramatically inhibited.
The coronaviruses all depend on RdRp and in fact I think there are a long list of other positive-strand RNA viruses that also use this enzyme.
The Democrats have been openly proclaiming for 3 years that they were willing to destroy the economy and the markets to get rid of Trump.
They have been true to their word.
They found a new earthlike planet only 300 lightyears away kepler 159 or something
"Like the determination that garden seeds are non-essential and are banned."
Depending on where you live, the growing season may not be long enough if you don't plant promptly. Which means that you can forget about that garden you were hoping would help get you through not having money for food because the government shut your employer down and you don't have a job anymore.
I'm sure the governor won't go hungry, though. So there's that.
For people that are not comfortable reading scientific papers, Roger Seheult does a good job of explaining the zinc hypothesis and presenting the evidence.
See Coronavirus Epidemic Update 32: Important Data from South Korea, Can Zinc Help Prevent COVID-19?.
He starts his explanation of this at 3:50 minutes into the video.
"A big, fat, beautiful Czech, with my name on it!"
Ivana?
Inga: "Want a little word salad with your meat?"
Made perfect sense.
Every bit of it.
National trends were looking good. Hotspot pops up in Denver. The response team was all over it quickly and traced down all the contacts and got people tested and treated. Viruses are "brilliant" enemies, adapting constantly and bacteria have developed responses to our antibiotics so we have to adapt.
Everyone understood it.
You're just upset because Slow Joe required a teleprompter and cue cards in a 1 on 1 conversation with Sanders! And they showed it! At one point in this "discussion" Dementia Joe actually blurted out "next card"!
LOLOLOL
You're probably also upset that it has now been conclusively documented that your 4 year lie-filled fever dream of russia collusion was such a hoaxed up lie that the FBI's fall back position is: We were duped by Putin!
And all that on top of the early disintegration of every moron dem Sham-peachment III talking point vomited up to date by Team Dem/LLR.
Gee toots, you're really dealing with alot right about now, arent you?
Meanwhile, "word salad" guy has the dems arguing for the 10th Amendment, States Rights, against expansive readings of the Commerce Clause and taking official ownership of states reopening policies!
Wow.
Just wow.
"My Life Is Murder (2019- ) has a smart female detective and her smart lady understudy solving murders that the handsome police detective has sought help with."
I watche the premier season a few months back. Wasn't bad, wasn't great.
As for the Australian crime dramas, my highest recommendation is "City Homicide", followed by "Murder Call". If you want something a little off-beat, try the New Zealand series "Brokenwood Mysteries."
Just finished up with "A Touch of Frost" which is British- highly recommended- as good, in my opinion, as "Inspector Morse".
Didn't see any hint at plan for opening up economy on his Twitter..
But there is a link to this:
Gov. Evers reads "Say something"
Actually Wikipedia has a good article on RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, and there are a lot of viruses that depend on that enzyme. Not just all of the positive-strand RNA viruses but many, many others.
In any case if zinc plus hydroxychloroquine slows down the Covid-19 virus then it should also slow down all these other viruses, also. The negative side of it, of course, is the side effects of hydroxychloroquine and zinc. But for most people those are pretty modest.
My guess is that for the hydroxychloroquine/etal. treatment to be effective, it has to be given early- it is too late once the patient is in serious condition. In any case, I have been a doubter all along, but am still willing to be convinced.
If the side effect profile is reasonable for a chronic illness, should be less a concern for this.
How does COVID-19 kill? Uncertainty is hampering doctors’ ability to choose treatments. Doctors are reaching for drugs that dampen the immune response — but these also undermine the body’s own fight against the coronavirus.
Treating cytokine storm in Covid patients is going to be a delicate balancing act.
You reopen the areas of a state that aren't in cities. You could do this today across 90% of the US territory with people practicing good hygiene and distancing techniques. There are some suburban counties that probably need to go later, but surprisingly few of them if you look at county-level data. Most of the cases are in the big cities and the closest suburbs- like 90% of the cases. In that 90% area that you reopen, you might actually be able to do effective test and trace given that the numbers of new cases today in those areas is very small in each state.
I have written it before, unless there is a vaccine in the next six months, we are just going to have to let it burn through the population- slowly or quickly, it is going to happen. Shutdowns in their present state are simply not sustainable, and never were.
would alveoli to you?
Covid in lungs illustrated
Kathryn51: I'm over 65 (same age as Althouse) and very healthy. I have no intention of "locking down" because locking down means: no visits from family, no visits with friends, total isolation. F**k that.
Last week, a friend’s wife, 55 yrs young, died of breast cancer. In her last days, Kung Flu limited visitors. The ID governor, despite a curve so flat here it is verging on concave, wants to continue draconian restrictions. Her graveside service is tomorrow.
Gov Little: fu*k you.
MayBee said...
Greg Gutfeld just said getting the economy going again is going to take a certain amount of risk. That's true, and a great point. Are we trying to say things have to be risk-free before we get going again?
************
Just think of our forebears, who lived with disease and death all around them, and still soldiered on. Cholera, smallpox, whooping cough, measles, mumps,pre-eclampsia, puerperal fever, tuberculosis, plague, pandemic influenza, and more: they shrugged them off, buried their dead, and kept going.
Imagine if they had sheltered in place.
Face it: we're a bunch of pussies.
Yancey Ward said...You reopen the areas of a state that aren't in cities.
We could build virtual walls around the big cities and bring back trebuchets to supply them with food.
As of today, slightly more than HALF of all Covid-19 deaths in Massachusetts have occurred among nursing home patients.
ONE 30-something has died, and a handful in their 40's and 50's. A good 95% of the other fatalities were in their 60's and up. Many of these died "with the virus", but because of their pre-existing condition not necessarily "from" it.
Yet Our Masters have chosen to destroy the lives of all of us.
Madness.
Yancey Ward said...You reopen the areas of a state that aren't in cities.
We could concentrate the most vulnerable in the cites. The big eaters are the most vulnerable.
“Last week, a friend’s wife, 55 yrs young, died of breast cancer. In her last days, Kung Flu limited visitors. The ID governor, despite a curve so flat here it is verging on concave, wants to continue draconian restrictions. Her graveside service is tomorrow.”
In Albany Georgia, a funeral sparked an outbreak. It’s probably safer attending a graveside service, as it’s outdoors and people can stand apart from each other. I’d be careful of hugging though.
narciso said...
They found a new earthlike planet only 300 lightyears away kepler 159 or something
********
Hurray! Let's just build spaceships that can travel at 99% the speed of light!
We could be there in a bit over 300 years!
Might be only 30 years for our perspective.
Supressing the people's right to religious practices? Where's the ACLU? THE ACLU! Oh yeah... right. Another "liberal" hoax, that ACLU bullshit. Teachers used to pride themselves in virtuous rapture about the ACLU.
Prager says liberals don't fight evil, They fight those who fight evil. Time bears this out.
What was that?... The only things the democrats in congress have done this year is waste time on the people's dime.
the large green alien lizard from futurama
Sorry I've been out of contact.
I was watching Hypno-toad.
I perfectly understand, lol.
Inga said, "Treating cytokine storm in Covid patients is going to be a delicate balancing act."
The heat-shock response is a fundamental biological state that I think almost all the multicellular organisms have the potential for. When you have a heat-shock response a large number of genes are either amplified or turned down.
Amid the many effects of the heat-shock response is an increase in the number of Tregs. There are a number of different kinds of Tregs but some act to dampen cytokine storms.
The heat-shock response can be triggered by quite a list of stimuli but most of them are either dangerous or very painful.
One of the least painful and least dangerous ways to trigger the heat-shock response is to have a very hot sauna followed by immersion in cold water.
If you do that regularly, like maybe 4 times a week, this should reduce the likelihood of a cytokine storm. There are other beneficial effects.
“One of the least painful and least dangerous ways to trigger the heat-shock response is to have a very hot sauna followed by immersion in cold water.
If you do that regularly, like maybe 4 times a week, this should reduce the likelihood of a cytokine storm. There are other beneficial effects.”
Interesting, I’ve been reading about the sauna treatments. Some people swear by it.
@Farmer, we can only say swine flu was “less deadly” than regular flu in retrospect. The CFR in the midst of the 2009 pandemic was calculated to be 0.6% (6X the 0.1% number bandied about for regular flu), and varied from 0.1% to 5.1% depending on location: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/ese.14.33.19309-en
There was never any justification—not one based on reliable data—for the type of mass quarantines we’ve seen. The only reasons were “It worked in China” and “our models show that this could be like 1918 flu.”
Kyjo
Are you denying the data from the Spanish Flu told us what worked against the Spanish Flu? Because there were some large and severe lockdowns and they generally worked. Worked both to save lives and save the economy, since the sick and the dead are unproductive.
You seem to be denying that reducing contact works at all. I don’t see what else denying “any justification” can mean. I invite you to compare nursing homes that were isolated from those that were not. Or cities that were isolated from those that were not.
how is it similar
I am 60 years old, slim, and in very good health. I cannot stand being cooped up indoors and would find a serious lockdown to be very, very hard to take. (I have also run out of stuff to binge on Netflix and Amazon Prime). I do not believe that a "lockdown" is the way to handle this and in fact believe intuitively that confining potentially infected people in close quarters may be the absolute worst thing to do. I hate it when the government tries to tell me what to do. I subscribe to the theory that our country was founded upon the principle that the government should not be able to tell me what to do without a very damn good reason.
Nonetheless if the trade-off were that everyone 60 and over has to go into lockdown in order that the rest of the young and healthy population can get back to work I would agree in a minute.
By the same token even though I live in a relatively uncongested area, I do live within 100 miles of NYC. If what it took to get the rest of the country going would be to lock down my state or county, I would be pissed but I would not resent the freedom that people in other states would have. I would say "GO! Make America Great Again! Like it was in...February."
We need to get moving, get realistic, and stop bitching. And stop thinking that everybody has to be treated the same for it to be "fair." Life isn't fair.
Ken B,
Red herring in the first paragraph, and post hoc fallacy in the second. At what point have any reliable data indicated that SARS2 is comparable in virulence to Spanish flu?
Some people need more Slurm.
Narr
"Good news, everyone. We're all going to die!"
Sorry, I retract the allegation of a post hoc fallacy. I misread.
Nevertheless, you can’t compare isolation to non-isolation without correcting for other factors. So I invite you to produce for us a thorough analysis of isolated vs. non-isolated nursing homes and cities, accounting for all other factors, to establish the conclusion you presume.
Reposting 3/29 article.
"According to Corriere della Sera, a well known Italian daily newspaper, Dr. Pier Luigi Bartoletti, Deputy National Secretary of the Italian Federation of General Practitioners, explains that every single person with Covid-19 that has early signs, like a cough or a fever for example, is now being treated with the anti-malaria drug.
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The results that we are starting to accumulate suggest that hydroxychloroquine administered early, gives the possibility of avoiding this evolution in a majority of patients and is also helping us to prevent hospitals from filling up.”
Incredible. What is more incredible are the statements of Professor Christian Perronne, Head of the Infectious Diseases Department at the Garches University Hospital, made in an interview with a French weekly magazine.
Referring to the European Discovery trial in which UK is taking part with only 800 patients, Perronne says:
“I refused to participate because this study provides for a group of severely ill patients who will only be treated symptomatically and will serve as control witnesses against four other groups who will receive antivirals. It is not ethically acceptable to me.
We could perfectly well, in the situation we are in, evaluate these treatments by applying a different protocol. In addition, the hydroxychloroquine group (which was added to this study at the last minute), should be replaced by a hydroxychloroquine group plus azithromycin, the current reference treatment according to the most recent data.
Finally, the protocol model chosen will not provide results for several weeks. Meanwhile, the epidemic is galloping. We are in a hurry, we are at war, we need quick assessments.”
LINK
"Might be only 30 years for our perspective."
For 99% of the speed of light, the time dilation would only shorten the apparent time to the voyager by about 3%. You would have to get to 99.5% the speed of light to turn 300 into 30.
The dilation factor is the inverse of the square root of [1-(v exp2/c exp2)] which is roughly equal to 10 when v=0.995c.
Will retract part of that- just did the calculation- the factor at 99% seems to be 7. Can't do math in my head any longer.
narciso,
I was watching via pbs feed when that GM clip came on. Instead of zooming in/toward the screen, the camera zoomed so far out you couldn't really see anything. The models had Cuomo screaming for 30+k ventilators which drove the panic to mass manufacture. Just supposed to blow off companies that tried to help.
"One of the least painful and least dangerous ways to trigger the heat-shock response is to have a very hot sauna followed by immersion in cold water."
The step into the cold water is a hard one. Hard enough that it might be a hard sell for four times a week.
Very nice photo.
@Curious George:
Has any of it caused the economic destruction that these shutdowns have and will? You think of yourself as some big thinker, but shit like this proves otherwise.
That wasn't the point I was making, dipshit.
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